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Towards a European Social Union The Pillar of Rights and the Roadmap for fully-fledged A Forum debate Edited by Maurizio Ferrera Introduction Conclusions Frank Vanderbroucke Contributions László Andor Bea Cantillon Francesco Costamagna Caroline De la Porte Sacha Garben Martin Heidenreich Anton Hemerijck Trudie Knijn Manos Matsaganis Graham Room Chiara Saraceno Waltraud Schelkle Andrew Watt Torino Centro Einaudi 2019 Contents General presentation 1 Rights: from promise to delivery 2 Vandenbroucke Crafting – roadmap 12 Timely Call 27 Challenges ‘united in diversity’ 40 Vladimir Bogoeski (Social) is need ‘Social Imbalances Procedure’ 47 Corti Sebastiano Sabato Bart Vanhercke 54 as “union national welfare states” 64 Union: addressing challenges on labour market 70 Revival Europe 76 Union? Rokkanian-Mephistophelian remark 84 Who’s afraid contribution ESU 93 all 113 Snakes ladders road 119 social justice 131 union should address causes growing inequalities 147 How can protect citizens member states? 157 spillovers just transitions 160 new Commission must convince that 169 alive kicking CONCLUSION: boost building 177 Creating Link In 2013 coined notion (ESU) order clarify our thinking about so-called dimension EU This expression contains three implicit messages First it invites us propose clear-cut institutional concept contrast elusive ‘a Europe’ Second indicates we go beyond conventional call dimension’ if today’s has no whatsoever Third explicitly suggests what needed not Welfare State but precisely founded two principles On one hand states remain responsible organizing interpersonal redistribution among their citizens; other they take up commitment sustaining forms tangible solidarity themselves collective entities adoption November 2017 elections Parliament May constitute unique opportunity relaunch enrich marked point return: either will be sufficiently convincing recognizable success or high-profile failure Given political cost an eventual those who care politics now work interpretation maximizes its positive potential For this initiative have impact policy-making first condition powerful It connected way with functional necessities broadly accepted aspirations integration; fit into consistent conception role play policy idea provide fertile context search specification such raison d’être pointing both possible justifications practical opportunities encourage facilitate conceptual link between EuVisions launched introductory contributions followed comments various authors purely theoretical Participants course discuss conceptions raisons also explore potentials reference options concrete proposals closed rejoinders ‘ESU-debate’ Council jointly solemnly proclaimed set 20 equal access labor fair working conditions protection inclusion Some are well known already been formulated earlier efforts coordinate Member States’ policies Other relatively at scene objective ensure adequate minimum wages communication was ambitious: said “delivering more effective rights citizens” President Juncker called agreement “to avoid fragmentation dumping” launching isolated event: fitted broader evolution Over last five years steered away emphasis fiscal consolidation economic competitiveness which dominated immediate aftermath financial crisis 2008 Already Commission’s Investment Package signaled broaden EU’s agenda Below radar issues became gradually important Semester process Official reflection papers roadmaps future Monetary underscored completion EMU tackled thorny problem posted workers announced creation Labor Authority So conceived instance gradual cautious deliberate shift level However may turn out decisive moment longer-lasting consequences – negative Positively become sustains real momentum lifetime fails deliver enshrined backfire frustration generates undermine any attempt equip comprehensive long time come Thus solemn proclamation marks Obviously jury still final verdict maybe At writing introduction there straightforward reason why out: realm democratic cannot predict how declaration after next Nevertheless given reader surprised I ‘interpretation’ (‘Does speak itself?’) my choice words purpose powerful: Yet I’m calling debate: whether agree promising Pillar’s tested means When declared “primarily euro area applicable wishing part it” focus Eurozone happenstance; monetary motivation related Since understand relationship briefly elaborate basic insight gained prominence recent nearly existing unions true ‘insurance unions’ They only centralize risk management regard banks unemployment insurance exception developing driven mutual notably progress towards Banking Next argues needs stabilisers; achieve would re-insurance benefit schemes Another option seems prefer scheme supports public investment capacity when hit cope reduced revenue increased spending benefits1 fact share common wit automatic stabilisers times whilst simultaneously protected these scenarios happenstance: purchasing power downturn therefore ‘automatic stabiliser’ par excellence Existing opt downright centralization (like Canada Germany) demand some convergence organization degree reinsurance centralisation really high US combine decentralisation insurance) rational behaviour reasons pooling enhances resilience against asymmetric shocks second applies symmetric across whole States added value per se National systems create externality; country properly insures itself helps neighbours Therefore concern stability entails cluster sustain stabilisation each State: generous benefits; sufficient coverage rates schemes; segmentation leaves force poorly insured unemployment; proliferation employment relations integrated insurance; activation unemployed individuals; constitution budgetary buffers good so do bad These fortiori imperative quid pro quo were equipped More contention corollary conceivable risk-sharing triggered (e g guarantee considered Commission) But even without implementation ‘stability-related’ upshot argument unification beneficial key features participating necessarily flat denial developed See (2017a) pp 25-26 (2017b) 1316 allows valorizes diversity (Schelkle 2017); ‘convergence’ (not: uniformity) ‘some’ (in domains domains) Admittedly 1990s reform markets justified advent 1997 Employment Strategy emphasized supply-side flexibility: flexible interwoven individual development ‘enabling’ policies; together ‘flexicurity’ nutshell adds ‘stability’ desideratum ‘flexibility’: terms avoidance large stable wage income thanks coordinated bargaining2 Whilst flexibility focused equipping people skills action: bargaining organisation devices Stability requires instruments typically vulnerable individuals: stabilises economy because protects intrinsically associated action ‘protective’ Enabling protective mutually reinforcing creating resilient That matter addition calls competitive goods services cross-border mobility (including form ‘posting’) regulation posting regimes transparent predictable universal Single Market 3 understood translation integration standards subsequently language immediately emphasize overstretch functionalist rationale: ‘needed’ ‘imposed’ (or Market) Space forbids develop relevance well-organized EMU: see 2017b Watzka 2018 analytical carefully distinguish (i) ‘social corollary’ (ii) Market; partly overlap different Reflection Paper Dimension April insufficiently clear depends normative drive project (Vandenbroucke 2017b) We talking requirements abstracto; considering serve fundamental upward prosperity cohesion fundamentally (2018 issue 12-26) arguments ‘free-standing justification’ authority survive prosper diffuse support belonging jurisdiction; rests effectiveness fairness: “Citizens feel (…) government abides general norm somehow representing interest taking sectors/strata population however weak peripheral ” statement analytically coherent politically differentiation received number underscores observation Pillars addresses legitimacy goes My summary account shows multifaceted nevertheless points priority areas initiatives taken basis Access (notably feature ‘Access workers’ principle speaks mobile non-mobile highlights fairness driver right launch ‘access protection’ parallel pity ‘hard’ legal then scaled down softer recommendation (European 2018); challenge give bite consider Labour highly relevant: enforcing ‘fair mobility’ embedded well-regulated similar vein improvement Written Statement Directive proposed answers fight gaps independently intrinsic life balance wonder picked ‘work-life balance’ showcase willingness An improving work-life enters sensitive least evident regulated notwithstanding merits contributors forum disagree me preceding section highlighted (albeit briefly) intellectual coherence remains handicapped absence domain very could hear ministers saying responsibility EU-level Such confusion debates phenomenon happenstance although omnipresent ill-defined ambiguous mean ‘protecting domestic (liberalizing of) further Europeanisation’ ‘more supranational initiatives’ Hence simply stating contribute begs question: do? trying deliberately started use Union’ Suggesting incorrect counterproductive coordination security health safety workplace directives non-trivial acquis fifty piecemeal solid foundation non-discrimination premised steps build stage respond than ‘adding coincidence historical legacies institutions As explained below primary believe organise borders; main mechanisms States; refer logics rather strategies (space upon latter idea) There specific aspects rethink application subsidiarity within ‘union states’ apply organising Solidarity necessitates same harmonisation generally practice far removed top-down one-size-fits-all approach core summarised follows: systemic functions (stabilization function earlier) guide substantive via objectives leaving ways consensus operational definition ‘the Model’ countries cooperate explicit purpose; hence desirable necessary unless drop concerns shared To make analysis say leads definitive version depending judgements brought bear ambitious less project; based Nor table uncharted territory: clarified (2018) develops his vision congenial helpful: he starts premise place diverse pieces ingredients aim something federal state found federations ‘holding environment’ flourishing holding environment Returning initial subject wonder: vocation defined level? answer question nature ‘rights’ tend conceive primarily enforcement entitlements rightly understanding rights: “Following tradition Max Weber define sources (Machtquellen) distinct types resources back actual exercise Holding having legitimate claim compliance others: horizontally fellow workplace) vertically authorities treatment administrations) Secondly resources: obtained right-holder activate coercion Thirdly instrumental availability full case example sets networks provides information advice procedures accessing delivering benefits While type (enforcement) makes (and extension citizenship) contemporary liberal-democratic societies underestimate importance types: especially former operate ideational motivational while actualization adjudication courts law know adopts binding norms indirectly impinge citizenship directly does (if through soft law) particular suggest citizen empowerment result initially exploit systematic Building typology presented argue presupposes combined implement principles: legislation; benchmarking; funding macro-economic surveillance explains think dissociated (In respect content joint Merkel Macron 19 June commentators made it; obviously kept ) short ‘roadmap delivery’ complementarity well-considered selection Which priorities? debated References Baute S Meuleman B Abts K Swyngedouw M Measuring attitudes Europe: multidimensional Indicators Research 137(1) 353-378 Marchal Luigjes C (2017) Decent incomes poor: Journal Common Studies doi:10 1111/JCMS 12486 Deepening Economic 31 (COM(2017) 291) New Euro Area framework Communication Central Bank 6 December 822 final) Proposal Recommendation self-employed 13 COM(2018) 132 12-26 (forthcoming 2018) piece (ed) Policy Play Brussels: Observatoire Européen W solidarity: experiment Oxford: Oxford University Press F in: Barnard Baere G (eds After Crisis Cambridge: Cambridge Structural Convergence versus Systems Competition: Limits Diversity Policies ECFIN discussion paper 065 Directorate-General Financial Affairs Brussels July https://ec europa eu/info/publications/economy-finance/structural-convergence-versussystems-competition_en Overcoming Fragility IMK Report 139 end 2-11) “roadmap delivery” (EPSR) want pick invitation proposal bold turned view start simple yet farsighted step: linking creative blocks available levels under symbolic umbrella accompany free standing “political” justification move mainly terms: improve performance EMU; rebalance values Treaties add badly well: re-stabilize polity providing “glue” restoring “togetherness” thus legitimation Piecing lot ambiguity widely used term argued designate definite entity similarly vague Model ‘names’ lump horizontal (“le dans l’Europe”) vertical (“l’Europe le social”) clarifying connection interdependence division synergies outlining system governance reconciliation sides involve far-sighted linguistic innovation precondition institution pronounce birth counterpart: year sealed valuable step forward enough wider container certainly comprising EPSR coterminous ‘exists’ fill empirical contents reassembling Here tentative list ingredients: 1. ensemble display notable differences correcting ranges risks covered faced cases adaptive changes Moreover increasingly differentiated service sectors revealed profusion programs regional local distinctions ten blur giving rise instead hybrid mixes approaches (Halvorsen Hvinden 2016) intra pluralism contained above (their dialogue Treaties) (sub-national hybridizations) close territories jurisdictions component forthcoming Spaces 2. characterized element Most regions territorial cooperation another interesting front (mainly partners) occupational pensions Transnational 3. novel membership space –coterminous external borders bearers enjoy ‘title’ bestowed them choose settle Starting 1970s had structured since 2011 directive regulates patients Let Mobility 4. regulative (re)distributive funded budget imply spending) hard proper sense 5. Lisbon Treaty including allocate responsibilities decision- making field supremacy over rules guides four components flux spaces keep predominant boundaries porous interaction dynamics plastic margins experimentation Prior overall hybridization partial clearly slow moving likely (Hemerijck 2013) current decade largely reversed trend (Andor 2017; Palier Rovny today rescue enhancing steering capacities sync reinforcements Addressing implies rethinking (EMU) limit reciprocal externalities If according devise broad template capable pan-European qua tales) centered traditional regional/local) observe (such United Switzerland) (Obinger et al 2005) bottom took constituent units barely problems Although delay compared unitary central able standardize and/or establish ex novo construction entirely developmental i e backdrop extensive nation limits supranationalization predicted Stein Rokkan many ago (Ferrera 2019) unprecedented “coming together” allowed maintain ‘legitimate diversity’ (Scharpf 2002) committed adaptation criteria open engage own fed semi-automatic “own resources” apart multi-state implicitly signals presence modicum federalism inter-territorial transfers architecture ESU-building adventure scale dubbed “holding environment” “a zone matched competent painful mitigate stress thereby uphold integrity pressure mobilize overwhelm reforms disciplinary intrusion” comes child neuro-psychiatry (Wincott 1964) elaborated sciences serves engaged spite divisive forces generated work” (Heifetz 2009 p 305) Resting mix goals collaboration pressures country-specific recalibration indeed –on word “environment” evokes above: “space” (more meta-space) senses citizens/residents outer border frontiers tying participants pursuit obligations wide By assemblage Gestalt overcome ambiguities once (hopefully) integrating underlying ‘solidarity’ justice’) dimensions: trans-national dimensions potentially clash inevitable provided recognized reconciled consequence multi-level allowing network (rather hierarchy) links favor adjustments internal articulation lose sight inter-institutional mentioned counterpart Unions logic ‘institutional complementarity’ re-assemblage require demanding exercises imagination What grand visions circumstantial ideas seeds wedges change decades Seventies Eighties generate trial error detailed consensual blueprint design ran experimentations incremental innovations ‘snake’ System 1979) Even though ‘name’ aspiration brief above-mentioned fall scope remarks latest policy: arm principles? suggesting fate coming most ingredient appealing) status text ‘principles rights’ specifies reaffirms present Union’s dedicated measures legislation legally enforceable led mere phrase-mongering (see review positions) judgement too hasty gauge significance clarifications exactly? Following fellow-citizens non- discrimination holder liberal- Courts Amartya Sen repeatedly crucial During famine “right subsistence” worth anything assuming strict intervene food where happen reside (Sen 1981) Especially certain situations conferred transformed “ableness” (Morris 1987) Finally let forget judicial imposes obligation practices existence Court Justice hold imputable noncompliance confers merely procedural substantial guarantees law-making de facto almost right-actualization offers array legislated subnational Many underpin intra-EU EURES ERASMUS EHIC) others complement strengthen structural funds sector- Globalization Adjustment Fund (EGF)4 Aid Deprived People (FEAD)5 Youth Guarantee acts expanding leveraging linked Regulation establishment (ELA) illustration consequential grass roots seen sort intermediary 4 Globalisation established 2006 losing jobs major world trade patterns due globalisation company shuts production moved outside global 5 (FEAD) 2014 material assistance deprived accompanied (Madama preamble pertinent articles Art Preamble that: “The efficient outcomes responding aimed fulfilling people’s essential ensuring better enactment rights” formulation ‘guiding’ nicely relates dimension; ‘ensuring implementation’ facilitation appropriately strategically exploited despite character prior pave Figure offer visualization might look like Pan-European feasible? agrees rest guided criteria: institutions; delicate thornier wake Academic discussions topic concentrated rested defending rejecting) principled desirability cross-national deep ties try (efficient effective) functioning single “social corollaries” market-correcting centralized “visible hand” Both acknowledge ultimate pan-EU underlining governments spelling exactly obstacles skirt implications ESU? Is outline freestanding proposal? tenet theory variants territorially organized collectivity members evaluative orientations structure motivating self-interest Historically came nurturing feelings Just peace instrument serving facilitating managing conflicts generalized ultimately “keeping little doubt currently suffering crisis: populist parties questioning Brexit going tear extent specifically component) re-legitimation antidote centrifugation? hinge interest-based approval contingent output democracies abide voters’ eyes significant “it popular demands (specifically: stabilizers) re-establish ESU’s re-establishment ipso vehicle re- stabilization Though shoulder Diffuse Citizens takes One indictments Eurosceptic formations represent interests rule Note matters distributive beliefs (the EU) credibly inspired Along becomes objection situation (let alone construction) solidaristic aggravate solving Any “Transfer Union” increase embitter around genuinely disguise) broken propositions: • lacks cultural preconditions sense) strategy involving solidarity; extant conflict constellation Euroscepticism direction feasible propositions thesis ‘permissive consensus’ ‘constraining dissensus’ opinions emblematically represented (Hooghe Marks 2009) empirically grounded constraining dissensus focusing opinion side soft-pedals played elite mainstream elites) prepared terrain tends overestimate depth realistic resulted choices mistakes being self-inflected And equally predispositions meet critic’s increasing body data hypothesis mass survey conducted Fall 2016 EU-funded REScEU Pellegata 2017) majorities Germany Popular larger promoting investments helping severe poverty help experiencing majoritarian six survey: Spain France Italy Poland Results confirmed covering Austria Cyprus Greece Hungary Ireland Netherlands Portugal Slovakia (Gerhards YouGov (Genschel investigation Pew Center pro-EU “mainstream” voters (as opposed supporters “populist” views left right) Sweden (80%) (72%) (68%) (53%) (51%) Counting undecided respondents reach majority (Pew Survey handled suggested ‘silent majority’ supporting realignment togetherness created represents elites shown RESCEU much solidarity-prone forthcoming) elective (choice based) partnerships looking onto families nations leaders fraternal nudging ‘socioemotional leadership’ idioculture difficult fluid relationships self-seeking behaviours rational-legal (Brint 2001) opposite emphasizing difference apartness communities denigrating symbolically mechanism historically rule-based formalization authority: recipe undermining maintenance put safe “polity maintenance” pursued safeguarding survival durability Several enhance discussed Vandenbroucke’s transfer-oriented socially friendly complementarities actually thought bridges passing strengthened steer Conclusion official presumptive disputable Those nurture clamorous disappointed formal already-existing elements achieved small changes: discourse act ‘naming’ smart packaging remember did big bangs: few exceptions beginnings quite modest Institution redistributive Conflict served cement alliances disadvantaged promote exchanges rulers ruled irreversibly intertwined claims intersected critical contingencies Deal America World War II leaps bottom-up movement interests/wish incumbent preserve consolidate face acute unrest dire emergencies vocal players Europe’s arenas seem souverainisme reveal majorities’ hoped find suitable candidates run-up train miss probably huge mistake L Divergence reformed EMU? 15th Annual ESPAnet Conference http://espanetlisbon2017 eu/) Brint (2001) Gemeinschaft Revisited: Critique Reconstruction Community Concept Sociological Theory Vol No 1–23 programme ‘Preparatory Child Scheme/Establishing support’ [Commission Decision C(2017)5615 16 August 2017] Registrar Awards https://www regiostars eu/node/243 [accessed 28 05 2018] (2005) Boundaries Integration Spatial Politics Protection (2019) Disproved Vindicated? Rokkan’s impossibility democracy DOI: 10 1177/0958928718804932 Can Be Reconciled? Citizens’ View Milan www resceu eu (forthcoming) soon Resceu website Genschel P Hemerijk Institute Brief Issue 2018/01 Gerhards J Lengfeld H Ignácz ZS Kley FK Priem Strong Solidarity? BSSE Working Berlin Sociology 37 February Halvorsen R (2016) Combating Poverty Active Inclusion MultiLevel Multi- Actor Context Cheltenham Edward Elgar Publishing Heifetz RA Grashow Linsky (2009) leadership: Tools tactics changing your Boston Mass Harvard Business (2013) Changing (2012) necessity unifying Intereconomics vol 200-206 Hooghe Postfunctionalist Integration: From Permissive Consensus Constraining Dissensus British Political Science 39 Madama Deprived: contested contentious (but successful) pathway WP/06 Morris (1987) Power: Philosophical Analysis Manchester: Manchester Obinger Leibfried Castles FC Federalism Experiences Disunion? Consequences Manow Schwander Democracies Party Politics: Explaining Electoral Dynamics Times Capitalism 277-296 Western Populists tap Anti-Establishment Frustration Have Little Appeal Ideological Divide at: http://www pewglobal org/wpcontent/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/Pew-Research- Center_Western-Europe-Political-IdeologyReport_2018-07-12 pdf a-changin’”? european pillar reality check Vanherke (ed Observatory ‘Towards preliminary Recommendation’ Bouget D Trade 73-96 (1981) Famines Essay Entitlement Deprivation Clarendon Scharpf (2002) Model: Coping Cologne Plank MPIfG 02/8 Legitimacy Intermediation Multilevel Polity Collapse Planck für Gesellschaftsforschung Necessity Urgent Programme Progressive Economy 1st 45-49 2-11 (2014) Tough Nuts Crack Background report Friends High-Level Group ‘Social Union’ https://pure uva nl/ws/files/2554065/161167_475562 30 03 2016] vs frankvandenbroucke nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/292 06 GD Wincott (1964) Family Outside London Pelican program timely again sharpen mission slowdown bound revive memories threatened multiple disintegration Today post-crisis period prepare post-Brexit era heal wounds believes easier solutions inside previous every block anymore freely deeper intention granted reluctance deepen attributed variety standard Austria) raises fear downward adjustment opposition politicians threat (Orbán went hardship divergence (Spain Italy) bring conditionalities sanctions ones fourth higher Dutch day ready assemble rainbow coalition deepening explored origins Delors’ Compact: original virtue 1989 Charter Fundamental Workers landmark Former Jacques Delors knew gain He acceptable cycle devoting Cohesion establishing employers (‘social dialogue’) ‘Delors Compact’ later supplemented (2000) “2nd edition” 2020 (2010) Compact progressive obsession Maastricht model nominal (low deficits low inflation) indifference costs late produced endeavour reconcile currency Various exist stakeholders Open Method Coordination esteem programmatic life-long learning continue measurable Occupational Safety Health female participation East-West imbalance enlargement east raised questions feasibility geographical divide productivity Rounds enlargements imbalanced heterogeneous predecessor obstacle 119-130) news East West slowly resolved average GDP growth figures expectancy extraordinary decline experienced Eastern happening regarding models sustained coupled run solution dumping legislative activity past often exposed controversies Upholding pivotal eastern ones) rebuild human capital lost constant migration Besides active Roma arguably biggest Countering North-South killed leading dramatic disparities North South quote (2019 93-112) “the critically naïve theory-in-use inter-dependence net” High youth NEET 2011-3 saw indicators behind legacy incapacity deal banking crises striking inequality deprivation Supportive sector recovery centre circles) nothing repeating disasters calibrated sequenced Preventing core–periphery Brexit: reflections reconstruction overshadowed UK referendum complicated smallest damage usual clichés dropped automatically trickle groups English metropolitan felt disenfranchised economically UKIP reinforced egocentric Tory ensured directed Westminster Contrary stereotypes experience « » refrained advantage tools (ESF) municipalities facing (EGF) producers downsizing decided (now FEAD) caring visible Britain attitude contributed alienation eventually victory Leave vote Consequently lessons tackling imbalances collectively stronger favour instability supported competences recently perceived inability trends deindustrialisation flows suffice jeopardising EPSR: game changer? confirmation Jean- Claude revives meaningful developments Presidency: eastward return spirit improvements quantum leap endorsed Gothenburg (Sweden) overture functioned ideological incorporating three-chapter third chapter construct 1980s subsequent cycles practically identified consultation helped alliance welcome technocratic meant backwards accounts withdrawal numerical targets never officially cancelled amount attention before guiding diminished paradigm rolled emblematic document SIP delivered guidance homelessness stressed illusory side-lined rediscover recycle scoreboard October tool demonstrate periphery socialising done heart 2010 plays method weight recommendations Zeitlin socialisation required updated documents 2012-3 period: White Pensions generating tackle Perhaps item modelled additional Subsequently inspiration long-term parliamentary story demonstrates occasional amendments improved standards’ (applicable Union) ‘national floors’ (with adapted country) Whether best channel Experts ambivalent co-existence appears underestimated perhaps expectations bias toolkit connects Within budgets expenditures cent total Out category narrowly receive Needless rival centralise compartment vital incentives reforming designing ground workforce training reaching depend concentrate invest closely aligned endowment ESF MFF 2021-2027 maintains allocation short- considerations reduce implemented (23 cent) post-2020 absolute Due merger smaller EUR 100 bn name: “ESF+” confirms threshold fund exclusion size envelope designed audited examples money allocated trace Without limelight connect reminds surveys everywhere strong greater concentration robust unemployment” populations Poland) count deemed experts differ greatly Thomas Piketty co-signatories quadrupling allow reduction sounds quantitative qualitative volumes Unemployment caused great inherent devaluation root cause flaws lack “Economic” definitely “Social” 2012 (two pillars permanent ESM etc incomplete outstanding deposit assets amending mandate ECB Making Fiscal talked self-evidently cover partially pool cyclical promoted Sebastian Dullien stabiliser direct reducing innocent victims recessions aggregate during downturns net studied analysts Together genuine 250 million employees enter community well-designed rules-based transfer ‘surplus countries’ stabilise Adopting chance agreement: positions significantly closer German finance minister Olaf Scholz advocate Arguably highway lead knowing post-2008 product business employee well-being companies adapt environmental ownership employees’ particularly useful co-ownership operating jurisdiction metrics evaluate companies’ impact: methodologies reporting enterprises allocations start-up microfinance) overlooked ongoing Campaign Wages setting influence importantly response wage-setting disruption pre-crisis agreements longer-term declining counter campaign Wage Alliance outlined sought guaranteed floor decent pay undertaken Guaranteed (at fighting relevant floor’ expected Going 21st century digitalisation robotisation effects technological Jobs OECD fresh constantly updating international partners task economics monitor competition commonly agreed brings base Vandenbrucke underlines: “A massive industrial nets built All arms counterpart” using Reports death exaggerated Obituaries premature fallout drama deficit deepened questionable mortal always weaker footing gap widened contributes confidence changer round actions concert Countries catch confident Where tighter fields federalist followed-up lacking publication EFOP Europa Solidarieta Tra Pilastro Sociale derive sovraniste Eurilink Ten Lessons Decade Debating EUBS: Robust Findings Myths Remaining Dilemmas Volume 52 May/June Number · 159-164 https://archive intereconomics eu/year/2017/3/ten-lessons-from-a-decade-of-debating-an-eubs-robust-findings-popular- myths-and-remaining-dilemmas/ ESU: 93-112 Katseli Louka T Rasmussen Poul N Sustainable Equality: Well-being everyone sustainable Independent Equality | 2019-2024 socialeurope eu/wp- content/uploads/2018/12/SD_ProgressiveSociety-SustainableEquality 119-130 Ocampo José Antonio Joseph E Stiglitz eds Revisited Columbia Our manifesto save Guardian theguardian com/commentisfree/2018/dec/09/manifesto-divided-europe-inequality-europeans “European debate” Jonathan Socializing Semester: co- ordination Public 25 Pages 149-174 tandfonline com/doi/full/10 1080/13501763 1363269 Taking core–periphery seriously 2-1) timelier stone Revision Posted (PWD) adopted austerity eurozone academic strives substantiate vaguer political) conceptually interpreting (policy) maximise engages on-going envisioned academics policymakers undertaking afford disregard top priorities inherently interrelated desired ‘social’ differentiates categories reflect achieving ideal several noted happened read signal momentum’ Carpe social) prominent namely Revised lasted atmosphere reminiscent Iron Curtain ever-closer divided low-cost rising continent (mis)interpretations sidestep chasm treat compromise PWD opted Milward 1992) finding attempts provision determinacy rejects justice’ (Micklitz 2011) rationality wealth distribution granting providers (MS) arrangements socio-economic cultures else Understandably elsewhere Foundational freedoms resonates contributing protecting won’t Posting old deeply rooted MS counterparts unequally Beyond off ideally (Hamerijck 2013; backed transnational thrive essentially limiting imaginative indicated polities bridge chosen battle (Samuel Moyn mention shut pre- re-distributive aware pitfalls rationale normatively unfortunate epistemic trap pursuing justifiable Because midst following Ferrera’s observations necessitarianism ‘dignitarian’ fairness-based decoupled regaining join) paving Rethinking reconstituting exclusionary creates impression affect entrench line dividing discern failures ELA vulnerabilities structures (from periphery) favourable exploitative core) enabled located pre-existing living vulnerability dependency structurally agency impairs successful tracing southern substance presuppose 147-156) pre-distributive constructed perpetuate hierarchies injustices (Kukovec 2015) Equal unequal ingrained DNA withstand efficiency cost-benefit tests counterbalance (remember Viking Laval) Questioning critique (juridisches Missverständnis Rödl predominantly minimalist tendency replace ‘minimum level’ ‘good quality’ (Pillar Arts 11 18 20) International Covenant Cultural housing fuller bodied egalitarianism (Moyn 2018; Florian Hoffmann Despite quality renders egalitarian (distinction Determining ‘in light conditions’ 6) relativise sufficiency adequacy Sufficiency unlikely combat reimagine include productive auxiliary substantiating Its accompanying regarded inspirational directions discussing enforceability justiciability Outlook reconsider restructuring’ kind Tackling (both eastern) reinvention offered starting (Saraceno reproducing Kukovec 2014) naturally sector-specific (EGAF) Regarding EGAF research proportion affected EGF financing (Clayes Sapir mitigation imaginable prevent alternatives ‘European Pact Progress’ (Rödl priori dangerous References: Claeys Fund: Time reset Bruegel http://bruegel org/2018/03/the-european-globalisation-adjustment-fund-easing-the-pain-from-trade/ (Oxford Future Bhuta Futures Human (Collected Courses Academy Law) (OUP Hierarchies Law 21 Periphery (2015) 406 Micklitz H-S Private (EUI Rescue Nation-State (Routledge Not Enough: Unequal (Harvard Alternative Constitution Hien Joerges (eds) Responses Euorpean Cultures Eruope’s Example German-Italian Discrepancies (RSCAS Soziale Rechte Europa: Von irreführenden Versprechen und notwendigen Kämpfen WSI-Herbstforum 147- 156 stimulated vivid rich challenging forward: interpret (Bogoeski 40-46; 2-11); conceptualize 12-26; 93-112); 27-39; 160-168) analyses (Garben 76-83; 70-75) (Cantillon 54-63; 119-130; 64-69) pointed progressively subordinated meta-coordination apparently sharing characteristics ‘soft governance’ (OMC) prescriptive (Dawson ‘country- specific’ theoretical) penalties ‘back forth’ scrutiny intervention intensified peer altered voting novelties profoundly (Vesan ‘socialised’ (Zeitlin & persisting asymmetry Against background investigate subordination ‘economic’ (EU) monitored analysing monitoring macroeconomic (dubbed ‘Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure’) ‘preventive’ ‘corrective’ supervision problematic E(M)U deterioration spill-over countries; loss credibility prudently tried ‘socialisation’ Macroeconomic Procedure ‘Strengthening EMU’ seemingly preventing Similarly September 2015 newly appointed MIP Scoreboard reflecting capturing undoubtedly visibility draw policymakers’ achievement becoming factor strike strands? Jean-Claude ‘triple rating’ ‘as triple reiterated Five Presidents’ Completing (April) (November) interinstitutional Scoreboard’ performances resolve affects range young people; education (NEET) alarming Southern regions; persistent childcare lifelong opportunities; Fransen suffers estimated €142 billion year: €15 €70 €57 affordable formidable Semester) ripe flagging repackaging relabelling (SImP) procedure a) erode b) detected early corrected corrected: healthcare c) d) e) strictly consist stages identification SImP (possibly refined) included accordance annual Joint displaying ‘critical situations’ (i excessive imbalances) encouraged request decide ask applied Multi-annual Action Plan (MAP) drafted plan contain initiatives/reforms (over three-year span) interventions forms: technical defining — Reform Support Service SRSS coordinates tailor-made services) this; Delivery Tool Operational Programmes co-financing rate ESI focussed ALMP infrastructure); ‘silver rule’ exempt Growth provisions Country-specific Recommendations Country repeated non-compliance MAP SGP extra Three Procedure: concerned spill threatening sustainability refers champion retrenchment distrust movements promises adopting serious ambitions 27-39 V 40-46 54-63 64-69 Dawson displacement Constitutional Review 14: 191–209 70-75 del Bufalo Reviglio Boosting Infrastructure Task Force Investing Discussion 074 76-83 Spasova Integrating Committee Vesan Mission impossible? seminar January 160-168 25(2) prioritizing 14 well- initiatives? well-conceived sensu lato combination benefits) harmonization “principle based” policymaking: stated Until 80’s evolved complex grew dawned nor Gradually ambition replaced preferences deploy shaped effectuating ‘input’ ‘outcome’ With eradication loose measuring (Atkinson ‘eradication poverty’ strategic goal aiming persons jobless households Regrettably failed Goedemé Hills strategy: non-binding abstraction factors control over: dependent things single-parent distance ‘outcomes’ ‘policy input’ Only sophisticated simulation isolate society outcome welcomed overly divergent balanced “Equal market” ”Fair conditions” “Social inclusion” precise room packages nuanced input falling ‘one-fits-all’ pause struggle symbols mountain bore mouse leverage (ESU)? everything rollout moral exploitation appropriate assumptions contend “everyone dignity enabling (re)integrate Normative pragmatic Catering Ever disappointing reached extremely in-work out-of-work inadequate worrying poorest exclusively spent items (Goedemé discrepancies Europeans enormous floors deteriorations crisis-hit Adequate earners firmly anchored equivalent embedding Effective anti-poverty Anti-poverty accessible age obvious gains translate tax credits get poverty; ‘inefficient allocation’ paid poor work-intensity households; advocated tilts prevention compensation” healing doing faces platform places guaranteeing irrespective status? eligibility rules? proposes outlines universal; introduce children elderly; render contributory actuarially fair; means-tested (housing incomes) volatile earnings; obtain accurate earnings Clearly “gendarme” commitments facilitator securing lifting successfully poverty: decoupling flexibilisation sluggish demanding: considerable cost; trade-offs drivers skilled progressivity taxes redistributions raise (Collado beyond) join wages) poorer Hemerijck’s : Minimum Compacts Solutions ante Through + aims playing field: layered operation assumes receiving charitable organizations belong (re)insurance aptly says “ bounce recover sizeable 6. Delivering strongly instrumentally Successful “affordable” vice versa regards tensions involved strengthening ‘make pay’ other) 7. secure stay 8. compact greatest fulfill lever intensifying puts “citizens peripheral” reasoning emerge ‘support jurisdiction’: “decent all” pan- 9. “building blocks” EU-2020 Like re-assembling minima kinds supplements ESF+ 10. recurrent theme Implementing history limited sick disabled elderly mothers EU-countries distinguishing American NGOs alike numerous occasions 1992 Council’s ‘common concerning systems’ (92/441/EEC) (Council resolutions Agenda 2005-2010 ‘Active Inclusion’ excluded occupies Resolution further: stresses integration’ ‘adequate 60% median concerned’ maintaining combating participate undertake work“ wage“ recommended hallmark slogan “Decent Incomes All” proud there? “while resources“ along lines illustrative priced baskets participation’ “output governance” “input violate cherished Incorporating thought-out linkages turnaround benchmarking frameworks guideline processes EU-wide moderate effort behalf inevitably compass ethical Certainly solved: meaning ‘adequate income’ countries? supportive take? timeline foreseen “enforceability”? proclaim Reconciling reduction: OxfordOxford Collado Van den Bosch Vandelannoote cheap talk closing all: Europe/Cantillon [edit ] (pp 223-243) All: Improving 93- 112 Paulus Sutherland Tasseva seven EU-Countries decade: tax-benefit Hufkens Gasior Leventi Manios Rastrigina O Verbist Hypothetical Household (HHoT) EUROMOD: comparative (No 05/2019) JRC Papers Taxation Reforms perspective prospective intended comment orientation shaping deals deriving emphasised clarity avoiding contradictions “rebalance toward Treaties” re-legitimize “restoring ‘togetherness’ support” Operatively imbued dose realism claiming assembling already-existent modify confer traversing albeit well-defined convincingly meta-space endowments backgrounds credentials loci ideate carry activities “combat […] justice” cohesion” Article TEU referred sure perform autonomy Indeed inception negatively affecting victim EMU” duly observed “reduce independent manoeuvre amplify originating country” regret prescient envisaged “countervailing policies” compensate levers eruption ensuing fully materialized entrusts dismissals squarely exclusive competence powers variable treated Supplements MoU prescription urging Greek “compensate ruling (equivalent percent GDP) pension reforms” decision Supreme cuts breached Convention (‘ECHR’) depriving pensioners troubling transformation constitutional constellation: cornerstone model’ compensated strains relying yoking allegedly consistency bases rely coordinative comply touching wage- Specific “broad guidelines” 121 TFEU identifying results Rather guidelines narrow paths deviation ‘right way’ salvation “[t]ake cost-effectiveness patented medicines implementing Roll activity-based throughout hospital system” readily nominally retaining engender inferred 288 hard-law adopt power- complying bailout escape creditor underpins default governing attached “mixed parentage” combines Memoranda Understanding (‘MoU’) whose dominant rejected private applicants seeking annulment addressed alleged disconnection lies decisions rejecting requests rulings submitted excluding applicability (‘the Charter’) prospering prioritization EMU-related 9 TFEU) surely panacea bringing elaboration programmes proceed path proposing spelled possibly palatable Florescu judgment (C-258/14 dealing package 143 compatibility Romanian reviewable 267 mandatory “constitutes institution” vest abandon suffocating conditionality contemplated Ex post urgent negotiated 7 472/2013 timid draft “into formation concerned” “fully 152 Charter” advisable Operationally feed assessment beginning demonstrated carried mostly praise Finding ‘socialize’ organizational Undeniably attainment doubtful prioritisation ‘socially- oriented’ marginal adhering ‘traditional’ hardly surprising smooth consequently fiddle unclear pointedly irrelevant “serve Semester” renewed correct distortions biased competing promotion centralised stabilizers ease emancipating sole legitimization payment polarised surrounding in-depth recalling posited conferring concurred dissented possibility institute ‘equivalent’ envisage payments eligible short-term exceed According scholars “less useful” viable 352 TFUE free-standing normative-political “… (… identify characterize embody inclusive empowering boosting embodies (updates to) intentions maintained guard precarious analyst undervalued capability mid-1990s diagnose (through data) (on states) recommend coordination) trajectory (active) strongest resource consists knowledge exchange (best) experiences underlined EPSR’s challenges: reconciling family deadlock ‘most non-standard work6’ (hereafter work’) Eurostat 64) 61% 72% (Eurostat survey) parental leave child-care sphere introduced parents emulated sieps se/globalassets/publikationer/2019/20192epa) Based promotes targeted carer terminology fixed-term part-time temporary gendered market-related penalty women career progression (Esping-Andersen 2007) breakthrough area: revised provisionally encourages gender equalizing introduces paternity fathers/equivalent days earmarks least) months Denmark childhood (ECEC) 2002 benchmarks Strategy: 33% 90% until school ECEC extend relation Commisison underdeveloped earmarking exemplifies knowledge-exchange work’ digitization labelled ‘4th Industrial Revolution’ virtually job Put differently casual zero hour contracts voucher-based update ‘written statement’ atypical digital literature dualization (Hipp 2015; Emmenegger 2012) increases transition open-ended prospect obtaining contract anti-discrimination (relative hours worked) comparable worker rigid decrease (de 2017: 300–301) Twenty ‘non-standard’ part- 2017a) 91/533/EC ‘work’ ‘worker’ ‘employee’ whereby inform written manner includes remuneration entitlement terminating stipulates reply employer revision prioritize delineated here show rapidly engagement footprint determined agendas meets Nordic Model” Swedish (SIEPS) 22 downloadable from: se/globalassets/publikationer/2019/20192epa? Fixed-term Work: Putting Brake Dualisation?” 27(3): 295-310 Esping-Andersen (2007) Incomplete Revolution Launching COM 127 8 March Staff Document phase Partners 154 (Directive 91/533/EEC) SWD (301) COM(2017) 797 facilities ”The pillar: Previous therein ‘interpretations’ ‘perspectives’ (Knijn 113-118) 54-63) Fortunately otherwise succumb disappointment proof showing agenda-setter turning akin Hoping publications market’ social’ failings spin Better reviving Treaty’s Title sometimes confusing ‘blend elements’ (Plomien 2018): subsumes (Work-Life Balance 92/85/EEC maternity Parental Directive; Predictable Transparent Conditions Directive) Authority) furthermore deploys mixed insightful incarnations administration impacting contradictory rationales: quantity (iii) process; (iv) science-based governance; (v) proportionality ill-informed paint picture unequivocal de-regulation businesses regulatory pursue non-economic Govaere obligatory Impact Assessment wide- spread Evaluations poses reliance quantification non-quantifiable civil ‘Better watchdog’ hamper drastically changed turns head deploying methodology upgrade entire ‘fitness purpose’ identifies holes missing thereof) plug (making arsenal) amalgam old’ new’ concretely evaluations worried services’ hands seized revise builds findings REFIT evaluation exposure chemicals Carcinogens Mutagens follows Work-Life Commission’s Maternity mentions expects complete Directives effect Partner Framework Agreements fixed- Pillar-related thereof lend credence Regulation’s evidence-based underpinning neutral prescribe: administrative burden event pleasing revival Market’ Social’ criticism Euro-crisis 2019– displacement’ (Kilpatrick deplored (Barnard explanations staunchly defended narrative continues streak ‘economic equals outcomes’ Triple Rating’ alongside ‘equal drawn whom legitimised configuration -with ensures moreover decisively struck democratically executive decision-making respectively CJEU decides prohibitions restriction (often interpreted pure freedoms) displacing upwards re-regulation exceedingly ‘liberalized’ Court’s 2010) severely constrained executives checks balances re-empower legislator vis-à-vis judiciary picture? cannot) deficient (either initiated CJEU’s motion amendment) adjusted stance Elektrobudowa Regiopost leeway host impose precedence protections v port AGET Greece’s redundancies Legislator managed amend e-card yearly follow-up (along oriented ‘hard cases’ easily viewpoint trade-off Anti-Poverty Network noted7 eapn eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/EAPN-2017-EAPN-CountryReports-Assessment-1133 ‘shift taxation’ Furthermore Euro- effected Troika auspices executive-dominated excludes dealt necessitate signing-off social- re-packaged reared onset precarity underline meagre Temporary Agency Work arduous negotiations well-known displacement: leaning ‘Liberal Economy’ position judgments parliaments proven hurdle Early Warning raising) testimony Liberal Economies Brexit- commentator ‘entails society’ effectively ‘implemented’ celebrate ‘Restricting Restrictions: US?’ 68 575 ‘EU Past Present Future’ 67 Current Legal Problems Regulatory 53 1209 ‘The (Im)balance EUConst Effectively Displacement?’ 210 ‘The Meaning Significance’ Yearbook Agenda: Critical (Hart Kilpatrick Displacement Productive Lens Inquiry’ (1) 62 redo 113-118 Plomien Gender Rights’ 17 (2) Society 281 Asymmetry Why Cannot Economy”’ Socio- 211 ‘After Crash: Perspective Democracy’ 21(3) ELJ 401 ‘Socializing Semester? Governance 2020’ SIEPS pillars: questions: Did impacts integration? colleagues? environment”) imped “double dualisation” (Heidenreich 2016; fractions younger older unskilled migrant determinants benevolent Nobel-prize-worthy double dualisation abolition (Preunkert buffer northern insiders outsiders (which termed dualisation”; Northern identical Great Recession (8 % Germany’s (26 0 %; une_rt_a) percentage facet native qualified exemplary (20-25 years) prime-age (25-54 2005 (Figure 1) composition (Italy Ireland) indicating (mostly) rose segmented relative temporarily employed 32 earning 24 prime facets indicate decreased nation-states 2008/09 (Beckfield 35pp 30pp 25pp 20pp 15pp 10pp 5pp 0pp 2: Age low-wage job-insecurity Source: EU-SILC 2005-2015 calculations Sven Broschinski Matthias Pohlig calculated binary logistic regression controlling household parent person adults coefficients figure probability ‘crisis ESU) mechanisms: Functional requirement “insurance union” centralises “not legitimise glance legitimating strenghtening overlook functionally committing classical fallacy Basically Europeanisation Mundell (1961) Friedman (1997) Researchers Currency centrally debt defaults bank insolvency (Shambaugh lender resort recapitalisation (“banking union”) endebted (“European Mechanism”) Unfortunately institutionalisation immense reliable confuse “solidarity States” misleading extending usually analysed self-interest: “We comprehend ‘solidarity’’ vouching ‘solidary’ ground: convictions particularistic (Bayertz 1999 8) reported Häuberer institutionalised ressources prerequiste realisation previously assume empower pre-Weberian works Rokkanian dynamic boundary structuring 2003; Flora 1999) acceded famous article 50 Treaty) events reflected difficulties (2016-2019) exits prohibitively revitalise Currently disputes Balkan Leaving customs manufacturing industries chains tarifs non-tariff barriers delayed supplies interruptions ports Dover Calais Sir Rogers Permanent representative (FTA) damages economy: “Where 80% tradeable fastest trade; FTA Canadian exports (Rogers 14) exit (for Drachme) sovereign devaluatem debts denominated Euros sum prevents indicator chaos none wealthy well-organised globally succeed frictions harder nation-building (2003 615–616) distinquished phases “bounded structuring” “State modern insights Weberian asking emerging cleavages struggles cosmopolitain populist-national (Kriesi 2006; Kriesi Pappas class 19th insurances cosmopolitain-populist- nationalist cleavage brutal decade-long somewhat mephistophelian logic: “Power Always wish Evil Good” (Goethe 2003 56) rights? dominate parliament) longer projects retirements refugees migrants) voted react loosers winners (Recchi Fourth liberalisation insistence ordodoxy redefinition (“whatever takes”) (Article 125 destructive Fifth booming desindustrialised rural “gilets jaunes” (“yellow vest”) protests consciousness worlds Mephistopheles advisor architect “illiberal democracies” eurosceptic xenophobic antisemitic walls forcing universities independence designating terrorists chancellors Nazis servants “unelected bureaucrats” cosmopolitains “international elites” nowhere” “party Davos” “Jewish mafia” trouble-makers speculators “foreign agents” alienated compatriats rection (Fetzer England risky constructing am Summit Bayertz (1999) Four Uses “Solidarity” (Ed 3–28) Dordrecht: Springer Beckfield (2006) Income Inequality 71 964–985 https://doi org/10 1177/000312240607100605 Remapping Comparative 486–509 1177/0020715209339282 End Europe? History 94–99 Regional York: (2003) Citizenship Structuring? 36 611–652 Fetzer Brexit? (Warwick series 1170) Coventry Retrieved Warwick website: http://wrap warwick ac uk/106313/ (1997 19) Euro: Unity Disunity? London: Routledge Do state?: Evidence 677–700 1177/0268580916662385 Goethe Faust: Kline (translator) Delaware Poetry Translation Exploring 1–21) Northampton MA: Grande Lachat Dolezal Bornschier Frey space: Six 45 921–956 Populism (Eds populism shadow recession 1–19) Colchester: ECPR (2017 26) Initiative Ouest http://international blogs ouest- france fr/archive/2017/09/29/macron-sorbonne-verbatim-europe-18583 html optimum 51 657–665 economies spend Knowledge ageing ex-ante capacitation ex-post compensation untold regime ‘disciplining device’ Re-engaging capitalism passed nadir aftershocks unleashed blessings: rerun Depression avoided adversely illiberal Romania confront existential precipitously grace even-keeled economy’ fostering tandem fueled anti- globalization discontent chauvinism anti-EU parliament ‘double commitment’ rescued ahead? assertive bolstered countenance ‘efficient hypothesis’ falsified momentous crash threadbare protectionist backlash? prominently debate’ craft Matsaganis’ warnings ‘snakes ladders’ detours ahead Reflecting prospects embark “excessive procedure” Italy’s Cinque Stelle Lega flat-out rejection lower earily synch Ongoing blame gaming debtor keeping afloat Additional finger-pointing refugee frontline unaffected anxious homogeneity trampling bode enlarging Still ponder (EMF) rainy infrastructural facility layer Are endeavors vain? Matsaginis Lord Beverdge wrote reports (1944) Winston Churchill’s ending war crafting postwar Good expedient wasted Searching exploration handy appear heed Beveridge diagnosis follow suit Concurrently pace transformative demographic techno inescapable fast-forwarded constitutionally no-bailout lowflation prerogative architects disciplining ‘wasteful’ cognitive inertia prevented generation makers recognizing heterogeneity joint- raising proviso apparatus behavioral behavioural constraints myth sovereignty runs arena strongy audiences expertise hegemonic market-making philosophy two-level institututional relegating finally unto electorates sentiments fearful path-dependent privilege advocates persuade socioeconomic evidence grounds undoable codified articular paragraphs staying prevailing cognitions learnt Eurocrisis finish Untold sentiment shape sound finances inflation Soon proved Kingdom salvage ‘too fail’ heavily implicated credit bubble burst Lehman Brothers Overnight quickly restored sobering break procrastination collapse unorthodox principally feat mid-twentieth engineering mistakenly hindsight absorb Northwest Finland surprise post-war Keynesian-Beveridgean shock-absorber ‘buffer’ macro-economy micro-level Ignorant proficiency harked stagflation advocating deregulation presumption ‘moral hazard’ ‘adverse selection’ predicaments thwart cost-containment trending earner activating surprisingly proficient (especially worker) dismantling Notwithstanding Danish successes instantly relegated ‘exceptions subtractive marke lean (OECD 1994; liberalization ‘supply side’ revolution macroeconomics riding Act (SEA) naïvely presumed inescapably discipline 3% consumprive outlays foster weakness preempt quandaries festering (Pisani-Ferri undershot ECB’s target Mediterranean struggled fortuitous catch-up continued adhere conservatism easy financed troubled scenario unfolded secured entry ‘structural reform’ waned borrowing excessively Paradoxically acted ‘reform tranquilizer’ enact houses capacitating insider-biased male-breadwinner pension-heavy reveals interdependent manage contagion sovereigns duress trapped “bad equilibrium” unable incapable mitigating countercyclical fragmented dampening (De Grauwe Unsurprisingly ‘straightjacket’ divergences (youth) (child) widening intergenerational defeating prescribed IMF spilled backlash ‘creditor’-countries tightening straitjackets ‘debtor’-countries fueling depression 1930s ‘buffered’ shock proficiently dared breach doctrines treaties announcement Outright Transaction (OMTs) bond spiral interference detrimental dynamism vengeance blessing disguise troublesome underway conjures gaping failure! Global Competitiveness Index (WEF) high-spending hovering Ronchi equality (we reverse Gini index) country’s surface circle ‘bigger’ state) equity Arthur Okun (1975) advanced record bigger spenders encompassing attain (dashed line) continental Netherland Czech Republic caught prowess lie buffering’ capabilities intensity intimately negativo Belgium ‘welfare predicament: worryingly correlates presses cognitively ‘size’ selected (year Note: bubbles graph proportional ranging ‘smaller’ Latvia (14 ‘biggest’ (31 dashed (raising Prioritizing swath ErasmusPro Skills assessing A’ uncoordinated ad hoc what’s (youth-)unemployment ‘auxiliary’ Six-Pack (2011) Two- Pack prescribing lip ‘default’ subjected intense lipservice ‘revealed preference’ defend ‘productivity-enhancing’ ‘participation-raising’ ‘employability-friendly’ ‘family-capacitating’ prosperous equitable tied quick fixes inspiring incisive advancing ‘re-insurance scheme’ breathing asymmetrically acting stabilizer pre-eminence Beblavy safety-valve intrusive alternative fall-back intimate affinity Capital Markets framed Mario Draghi Recent completing highlight risk- offset losses recession-hit performing parts borrowers overriding Keynesian lesson unavailability absorption risk-reducing actors trials tribulations Mechanism (ESM) OMT ratios uniform resolution shifted stabilize exent evidently buffering comparison generalize partaking twist utmost predicament acknowledges impinges designs cohorts working-age concedes minimal routines attachment youngsters disproportionately borne brunt Somewhat confesses ‘space forbids’ him 2002; 2014; 2011; demand-side reinsures demand-deficient surveyed discard macro-level (female) dual concur urgently redress ‘bad equilibria’ gears (quantity) (quality) taxpayers geared maximizing employability ‘carrying capacity’ expansion women’s quarter work-income-family nexus ‘lynchpin’ skill-biased divorce lone-parenthood (economic independence) prerequisite Absent possibilities externalizing numbers ‘broken careers’ postponed motherhood resulting fertility life-course (capacitating) (ALMP) (WLB) (paid) schedules (LLL) long- (LTC) transcend compensatory income-support originally (predominantly male) (stable) exigencies personal transmission ‘capacitate’ individuals investing career-life complementary edifice: ‘stock’ capabilities; easing ‘flow’ transitions; (3) ‘buffers’ Aggregate corroborates portfolios Evidently referring intelligence aptitude prioritised conservative-liberal interventionist gave primacy undistorted intimate; individually disposition undergird periods childrearing frail ‘inclusive’ employment-related ‘flows’ deregulated optimal satisfactory ‘family reconciliation’ (re-)regulation (gendered) compulsory secondary embraces ‘lifelong’ acquisition Inclusive gender-family-balanced ‘stocks’ produce synergetic longitudinally aggregative wellbeing economists believed Again expansionary realluy aggressive asset price inadvertently weakening (Rajan low-employment male breadwinner combinations (exposed sector) moderation worklife breadwinners flanked correctly fast requisite Eurozone-wide impetus reinforce forster sequencing layering convergent bolster Exempting stakes tide fashionable tragic conjectures ever Amsterdam edifice stepping stones 2000 judge milestone well-functioning well-balanced portfolio ‘fair-playing-field’ provisos ample devoted ‘capacitating’ disabilities Consistent argumentation vouch reinvigoration discount (SGP) consideration vantage jealously guarded clienteles remit adaptable family-friendly careers conceivably engaging ministries directorates expert committees virtuous expensive unfortunately reflex stock press jealousies Granting (within bounds) enable future-oriented infrastructures skill upgrading truly overwhelming Meditarrenean enlarged discounting struggling commit exemptions abandoning ‘buffering’ medium-term educational governance? Very so; Politically substantively underspecified discretionary wiggle-room year-to-year clause looked suspicion fiscally austere Hanseatic League member-state resurgence That’s freedom inter alia female) centers radical vocational Slovenia ramp regressive Finnish aid incentivise bandwagon reassure touches conundrum short-span electoral Voters informational retrospective) inferences Likewise elites’ craving emerged emit attention- disadvantage (Jacobs shielded tussle horizon Monti purportedly “trade generation” temporal inconsistency anticipated precursor cumulative credible attract likes Vitor Orbán Jaroslow Kaczyński contours pass invoked ‘legitimate appropriateness accountable (mis-)fortune What’s met water governments’ EU-skeptic right-populist ardent defenders post-1945 ‘native’ nationals proclaiming retirement 65 protectionism ban conjunction bidding farewell conservatives Between on- overnight ‘political-institutional vacuum’ (Marks straits Scylla Charybdis Pressures disenchanted resist abiding compromises Italian coalitions Enrico Letta Paolo Gentiloni infrastructure pride barred confronted passive lowering indebted measure stagnation home-grown protracted panned Looking magnitude hangover dismal institutionalized implication suststaing opening putting token cut constrain men carrying crowding elementary plead conclusion pro-actively administrations align stocks monograph quintessential transform contrasts sharply truthfully commits bonds integrates civilized (re-)insurance conditional (temporarily) breaching anticipation intricate issue- policy-linkage self-evident political-institutional cum live involves short-run costs? apriori listen area’ IZA 5: Gros Masselli ‘Reinsurance schemes’ CEPS (Januar Centre Full Free George Allen Unwin Ltd Fragile Eurozone’ 346 ‘Risk-reducing Speech Florence Gallie Need scheme: Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung ‘New Budgetary Framework’ (COM [2017]) ‘Solidarity School STG 2018/1 25(6): 810–827 Crisis: Unifying Concept’ Pp ‘Beyond “Frozen” Turn Handbook Administration (edited Ferlie Ongaro ‘A Consensus’ 1-23 Jacobs Governing Long Term: Democracy (1994) Study: Facts Strategies Paris: Efficiency Big Tradeoff Washington: Brookings Pisani-Ferry Aftermath Rajan Fault Lines Hidden Fractures Threaten Princeton: Princeton Experiment ‘Foreword’ i-xvi competitin: Needs Pact’ OSE Series Opinion Visser Miracle: Job Corporatism Amsterdam: longed-for reaction market-driven expense liberal capitalist undermines degrades Maybe ‘gilets jaunes’ soaring ethos turmoil bureaucracy painting Kafkaesque point: guilty neo-liberal accentuate inclusion’ paints reaffirming employment; weighting Also careful instruments; timing poll Schmidt European-level work-related downgrading labour-related optimistic Vandenbrouckes’s fallen stalled marketisation outsourcing austerity-driven thing Members internationally accountancy taxation operations plunder sell utilities futile premiums instant shareholders (social) speculative recall (social democratic) Minister Finance Jeroen Dijsselbloem His ‘[the] [the proposal] critically’ (CNBC tv implying typical democrat movement’s embracing Presenting rent-seeking profits (Stiglitz Instead dividend regulating halting laundering north-western combining aspect compensates ‘forgotten’ union’ wants reading insurance- justice? objections balance? neglect high-quality ‘Everyone sanitation energy transport shall ’ emphasise reject denigrate entitled safeguard completely chaotic insurance-based Women over-represented amongst involuntary outsourced flexibly contracted ‘boomerang children’ returning home well-protected commercialisation ideology citizens’ female; admit constituencies dignified project? grant control: reacting wrest lives oppose (rightly wrongly) unreliable (healthcare education) speculate strategies: compete depressed forced brain drains professionals educated westward appreciation Wales Hungary) revitalisation voice organisations Work-life balance: onwards expand reserve except Scandinavian Now neglecting ‘afford’ ‘his’ supposes woman half unaffordable unprotected minimally re-familiarization housekeeping prioritising work- luxury gender-equal recognitive Reviving processes: misinterpret bottom- resistance deny ignore filling (neoliberal) comparing ‘democratic deficit’ connecting associating demos stakeholders; organised deliberative interestingly politicians’ Divide: Societies About Them Norton Burgoon Kuhn Nicoli Sacchi van der Duin Hegewald Risk Sharing Hits: Design Influences Citizen (EURS) AISSR (December Contribution Ahead time? stand-off inexorably Angela Merkel’s resignation party leader waking no-deal (not Trump Presidency) forgiven propitious imagine understandable wrong letter “how project”8 signed thinkers Jürgen Habermas philosopher sociologist Friedrich Merz favourite Christian Democratic featured labor-market insurance” “An army Europe”) stretch analogy El Alamein (November 1942) troops Africa improvised conferences kilometres shortened Ministry Information meticulously officers eagerly soldiers9 Germany” (Handelsblatt Timmins (1995) Whiteside far-fetched ideas10 suddenly topical 12- deserves joining topics: placed them; ‘worklessness’; coping transformations accelerated near automation platforms debating 2004 2007 rendered Migration ethnically religiously emotional separating fell energetic Greece) peak Europe11 quiet despair humiliation Democrat cautiously cabinet colleague Peter Altmaier thinly disguised ‘transfer (anathema “Interview mit Finanzminister Scholz: Deutschland hat eine besondere Verantwortung” (Der Spiegel “Fat euro-zone fund” William Churchill privately viewed windbag dreamer’ (cited Addison Gross prices parities EU15=100 (AMECO HVGDPR) palpable Naples Athens Munich Rotterdam stark augurs ill Does debate? prosaically kindly inclined constraint extended “Others” Afghanistan migrants Europeans) forcefully Alesina Glaeser12 European- style ethnic skin colour inhabit responses Values 1990s) Americans twice lazy” poverty” cast intransigent inversely proximity multicultural cities homogeneous Obamacare ‘Remain’ ‘Leave’ Die Grünen confirm pattern13 consistently politicians14 Glaeser (2004) 42% MPs “financial 65% widest corresponding 22% 69% colleagues concluded “Europeans altogether scientists presumed”15 (transnational) varies reported16 lowest “for prioritise ‘hand ups’ ‘handouts’ sharing17 fits attack stealth suspects Conceivably China exporting firms ‘core’ 15 45% variation ranged 70% Schelkle’s “diversity political- profiles trust her maxim unity pushing reasonable ‘veil ignorance’ preparatory topic18 Scheme’) Reinsurance Scheme “reinsurance [ faster stronger” French “would one-off subsidiary ‘Reinsurance’ ‘first loss’ activated exceeds specified portion ‘catastrophic deductible ”20 Recasting ‘reinsurance fund’ unnecessarily left-of-centre spectrum Germany21 versions locally administered reinforcement Beblavý Maselli Ábrahám Brandolini special “Designing Insurance scheme” Bénassy-Quéré Bofinger Nonetheless milestones recipients 2010- doubled entrants ineligible benefit22 qualifying relax duration above) Eurozone) US-style note manifest worked jargon economists: intensive margin short-time Kurzarbeit subsidizes employer/employee relationship23 Alternatively tightened reduced) (2018a) 23 Arpaia ‘fordist’ ‘post-fordist’) destroys (mostly routine tasks middle level) levels) ‘informal’ precarious) blurring distinction self-employment24 arising dislocations disruptive occupations millions acquire ‘problem-solving intuition creativity persuasion’ radically overhauled adult upgraded Uber Foodora couriers ‘dependent self-employed’ status) offering online offline TaskRabbit informal self- jure unfair dismissal severance sickness pensions) fashion (2018b) Autor (child allowances) (first-tier pensions); (second-tier activities) non-contributory taxing estate emissions Actually arbitrage multinationals high-tech giants level26 gig liable collecting paying speculated Tito Boeri co-authors27 26 glimpse stake Amazon inviting bid company’s headquarters scramble “238 dozen towns Massachusetts businesswomen Anchorage Alaska sent Amazon’s York City Arlington Virginia locations “at dollars breaks grants newcomers hustle headquarters” (The Yorker adaptation”28 apt splendid young) ‘academic discussion’ idle professional disconnected world? ourselves (minus ‘idle’) (self)doubt gratifying Green demanded “eight Rights” amendments) Pact) wage) “examining mid-term benefits” 29 meantime proponents twenty ago: “No passes interested imposing raw cited EGP “Adopted EU” (Antwerp 18-20 intriguingly Volt “pan-European revolutionize befits assuring “Mapping change; remove resistant Brogueira Sousa Marimon Mayr Unpublished 1945 BBC Fighting 5:10 Curci Meyermans Peschner Pierini Short fluctuations Occasional (June jobs? Perspectives 3-30 (absorption): Commentary (1 (January Brunnermeier Enderlein Farhi Fratzscher Fuest Gourinchas -O Pisani- Ferry Schnabel Véron Weder di Mauro Zettelmeyer discipline: constructive Insight Giupponi Krueger Machin Digital Presented XX Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti Pavia reform: (VoxEU (1998 108) Carta D’Amuri unemployment-based absorber 1-19 Zone Blind spots unintended economists’ 291 (1998) Le trappole welfare: uno stato sociale sostenibile l’Europa XXI secolo Il Mulino Z Berliner Studien zur Soziologie Europas / (BSSE) Berlin: Freie Universität FB Politik- Sozialwissenschaften Institut Arbeitsbereich Makrosoziologie In: Theodoropoulou pervasive austerity: Technical 16th (ESPAnet) Vilnius (30 revisiting Wirtschaft Gesellschaft 44 335-367 giants: biography Harper Collins Wood Lievens Institutional hazard multi-tiered activation: eight studies Special 137 (April implementation: revolutionary Histoire@Politique Politique culture société same? fanfare heels signs optimism; re-affirm enveloping hostility nationalism dramatically ramifications appraisal (set (to contribute) learned retains OMC notes Ministers disputing henceforth lanes slower journey destinations travel eye upcoming compelling message bind listened disaffected recognised ordo-liberalism ‘sound money’ (Blyth Reformers sorts destabilising governments; likewise eurobonds well-targeted technologies Asian tigers (Mazzucato carbon Varoufakis31 DiEM25 Deal32 Each caveats Efforts destabilisation accumulation intensify remaining trans-European removed? entail Union; handle com/commentisfree/2018/dec/13/plan-europe-macron-piketty-green-new-deal- britain?CMP=share_btn_link https://diem25 org/diem25-unveils-its-european-new-deal-an-economic-agenda-for-european-recovery/ Piketty33 correspondingly UK’s 1973 Kaldor keen captured industry (Kaldor 1971) Eventual vicious circles removing circumstances grow weakest walking stagnant enjoyed accelerating export surplus expenditure south emigration destitution34 powerfully 27-39) ignored Cecchini (1988) wisdom warning learn passions fears unleashed? Was hopes fears? arose sensed opened internationalism London-based 33 http://tdem eu/en/manifesto/ 34 lrb co uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that Midlands situation? immigration base? Immigration 77 million35 immigrants gone accommodation traditionally drew True 48 (meaning 49 million) localities residents infer causal connection? insecure abandoned?36 assured thing; bigoted misguided GDP? (Maybe stagnated benefits? undermined wealthiest suffered; Labour’s natural constituency suffered vent abandonment divides orthodoxy evenly concomitant market; assigned 35 ons gov uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration /bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016 Goodwin Heath demographics additionally marginalised lived whammy’; there; ‘hot politics’ melt-down perennial long-standing intrude prerogatives saliency electorate citizens) exchanging presidency began outdated centre-stage protection: held risks; currency’s disciplines debtors’ prison worst offenders ‘desertification’ therefore: longstanding Imprisoned straitjacket interconnected desertification MENA region north-west north- west fearing Germany37 France38 unsure peoples disenchantment convenient scapegoat cynical blaming audience’s woes distant foreigners potent brew successive Cynically peculiar Conservative politicians; Jeremy Corbyn sees attractions allow39 frame centred corporate progressives-zentrum org/politically-abandoned/?lang=en 38 com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond- france-gilets-jaunes?CMP=share_btn_link com/commentisfree/2018/dec/27/four-reasons-jeremy-corbyn-wrong-eu-state- aid?CMP=share_btn_link elements40: Rejuvenate toxic imposed Austerity insists principal 41 Government buoyancy Otherwise stagnate; revitalising predatory financialisation stimulus stagnating encouragement eurozone’s laggards expect consumers accord instinct ‘trust value-added purposefully Paris concerted embodied science contemplate bath uk/publications/from-brexit-to-european-renewal/attachments/from-brexit-to-european- renewal uk/publications/alternatives-to-austerity/attachments/alternatives-to-austerity green ‘market failure’ Rejuvenating Piketty42 corporation democratisation accountability Promote Security Creativity Reaching shifting technology enterprise high-skill Individual interruption heartland half-century solidarities defensive industrialised neoliberal knowledge-based insecurity swathes population; turbulent retained dismantled (Polanyi 1944; Rieger 2003) threaten unbridled (Piketty desserts 42 com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/manifesto-europe-radical-financial-democratic Meanwhile showed shots western Governments guarantors banks’ viability tension progressive; footloose corporations ‘race bottom’ authorities; source Streek describes ‘Debt State’; Galbraith ‘Predator State’ Tax ‘rescue demographically challenged waste scarce artificial robotics43 yield returns (Coulombe 2004) neither deployed settings aligns ‘smart Hutton (2015: Ch ‘mass flourishing’ nationally 43 technologyreview com/s/603370/robots-will-devour-jobs-more-slowly-than-you- think/?mc_cid=676bdca633&mc_eid=bc4434aad3 Re-Think Movement re-thinking: reductions consumer destruction taxable Being migrate north one’s ‘free movement’ denude ‘devolving’ incomers arrive tourism education44 fragile environments watched caretakers numbers; stewardship (Ostrom 1990) strange jealous fabric mercy arrival encouraging com/education/2018/sep/23/town-v-gown-is-the-student-boom-wrecking- 5) profit interfering globalised seeks (Supiot 2012: 4) blanket faith test correctness masters ‘four freedoms’ infuses Continent? unhelpful insist people’ ‘control borders’ intelligent conversation recognise sit obligations: expectation wherever origin situation45 respectful civilised readiness extremist fan flames rhetoric exogenous rapid ‘tipping points’ calamitous arise sudden influx ‘gentrification’ residential recognition Coal Steel re-shape nurses IT specialists invested slender forged aplenty reform46 debates47 https://theconversation com/what-the-eus-rules-on-free-movement-allow-all-its-citizens-to-do-62186 46 com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/we-can-escape-brexit-doom-with-one-small-tweak- to-free-movement com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/europe-needs-refashioning-brexit-taxation-migration checking EPSR48 neatly packaged steadily expanded co-decision appearance orderly expose enriching Domestic ignorance elsewhere; justify (Natali 2015: 248 258) grown decades; prototypes succession ‘pilot programmes’ mid-1970s (Room Rome novelty eu/commission/priorities/deeper-and-fairer-economic-and-monetary-union/european-pillar- social-rights/european-pillar-social-rights-20-principles_en normal obliged insisted Once purposes Local peers turf city decision-makers officials glare publicity 1986: exposing ‘demos’ artfully pull practitioners testify allotted spheres summoned Small ‘ever-closer markets’ creatively (2014: 16) association enjoying participatory (Leonard 1999: Rebel Cities Change): “…the ’cities change’ affirm protagonism spurious optimism incompetence ill-adapted sub-text societies; tolerance inequality; divisions ‘three cohesion; dictate emerges Europe-wide Challenge: 1992: Benefits Aldershot: Wildwood House Coulombe -F Tremblay Marchand Literacy Scores Fourteen Ottawa: Statistics Predator Brown (1971) Truth ‘Dynamic Effects” Statesman (12 March) Leonard Case Foreign Mazzucato Entrepreneurial Anthem Natali ETUI Ostrom (1990) Commons: Evolution Institutions Collective Twenty-First Century Mass: Belknap/Harvard Polanyi Transformation Rinehart (1986) Cross-National Innovation Macmillan 1990s’ Oorschot Peeters Boos Invisible Leuven: LannooCampus Publishers (MPlfG 14/21) Study Threat Lane Buying Verso Supiot Spirit Philadelphia: Total Arguing dimension” Possibly respective powerful” supra-national player unjust fairer non here) “unfairness” inequality-producing balancing “active” “passive” “enabling” “compensating” “protecting” “insuring” foremost intervening underpinned level: accessed accumulated heights unknown documented vast –in degrees Goran Therborn flexibilization strength oligarchs 10% ultra-rich 1% managers merit monopolistic bonuses traceable favorable individualization polarized detect organize diminishing retreat name self-regulation bodies oligarchic translates chances Twilight September-October https://newleftreview org/II/113/goran-therborn-twilight-of-swedish-social-democracy Atkinson Franzini Pianta: Oxon Growing s favoring inter-country inter- competition) unfairness paradox shares currency) everybody underpinnings anti-monopolistic regulations forth moves perception asymmetrical universalistic 112) navigating contest (particularly inter-countries widen words) Hacker foundations democracy’ Gilens Affluence Influence: Power 2012; Carnes White-Collar Government: Role Class Chicago: Chicago Elsässer Hense Schäfer “Government Elite Rich: Responsiveness Unlikely manuscript Osnabrück (a cura (forthcoming); Ólafsson Daly Kangas Palme adaptation” misery populist/nationalist collect dissatisfaction “losers” losers unbalances differential unregulated unwillingness hosting asylum seekers “holding” “process pooling” Or inefficiently disillusionment Re-insuring diversified crystalizing accepting thresholds measured translated PPS cross Households Luxembourg counted “older” “harmonization farther temptation feeding “cognitive joint-insurance” overcoming feeds nationalisms rules) Cantillon’s determine gets rewards collects pays Pre- Matzner Keynesianism: Socio-economics Production Brookfield 1991; Chwalisz Diamond Pre-distribution Bruxelles Carlin restructure sacrificing wholly pre-distribution capitalism: satisfaction generates; ‘good’ ‘lousy’ jobs; flexibilities focuses eliminate biases privileged enforce hazards loading CEO’s awards counter-trend inheritance familial generational passage systematize negotiation Anti-monopolistic Strategy’ (London: Available policy- net/publications_detail aspx?ID=4269 (last AG Contro disuguaglianza Un Bari Laterza Atkinson’s testament book (cit pertains busting undue privileges “soft” Emerging drafting intra- cross-country awareness eve one: Two mentioning Manifesto Manon Bouju Lucas Chancel Anne-Laure Delatte Stéphanie Hennette Guillaume Sacriste Antoine Vauchez thousands signatures 55 stipulate Democratization emissions) climate replacing “hard ultraliberalism” Consisting 4% eu/ reception agents sponsored Parliamentary Socialists Democrats (S&D Group) 56 “policies re-empowering re-shaping residence European-wide Fair group procurement recognize banking” largest stricter Corporate Responsibility Passport quoted reversing Net Wealth Transactions progressivesociety eu/publication/report-independent-commission-sustainable-equality-2019 unrealistic nationalist/populist resentment nationalistic closure consensually ; Websites: constituted tax-transfer address: reined openness (ESPR) time-honoured rights-based crucially phrase: prosper” devil detail apple pie Except finite self-exploiting evade deserve evasion disingenuous pages Surely libertarians Eurosceptics compassionate union? politician Prime finance) Under watch Duchy haven starves Juncker’s ESPR hollow blessings compatible decisionmaking push poverty? only? complementing valid Rawlsian veil heard express votes Voting immigrant welfare- chauvinistic solve puzzle ‘no representation’ confines blog stabilising Mobile well-educated well-paid well-treated jeopardized fairly recourse redistribute property stand meritocratic society: Piketty’s laboratory innovate hard-to-tax underused abstain freeriding Adding menu trick transitions57 pleasure attracted stimulating achievements thrown jigsaw under-discussed “just transition” countering flesh bones nascent separate economic” social” Right relied physical goods: interventionism distorts stymies market-led Left frequently one-sidedly producer oppression neoliberals progressives 57 benefited helpful Willi Koll Lukas Vesely disclaimer erect bulwarks encroachment seguing Neither inextricably entwined incentivises unconditional leisure) revenues Equally non-exhaustive legitimized class-based (decommodification) improves channeling it58 succinctly: La concurrence qui stimule coopération renforce solidarité unit post-1957 tightly loosely described (some “managing consequences” (See details 58 https://fr wikipedia org/wiki/M%C3%A9moires_(Jacques_Delors) affair charities) “deliver” (tighter substantially myth? widespread damaging misunderstanding unsophisticated paucity outcomes: (most all) highest Provided ain’t broke actively pitching “race bottom” influential Fritz conceptualises “negative integration” (market creation) facilitated whereas “positive (market-correcting regulation) unanimity concise Höpner 59 concern; 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priority’ She rehearse enriched repeat: ‘insurance’ Shelkle series) solidary mind union’: legislation’ selecting all’ scheme) ‘zzp’ statute spill-overs (perverse) Potentially uniquely innovative unchartered relationship… right’ confined high-level ivory-tower characterizing peer-review Principle “all enriches ‘future work’: ‘[T]he practices’ simplifying ‘nuts bolts’ future-proof nuts bolts states: obliges here; advances tables cautionary determination Policy-makers simultaneously: self-employed” unrelated cautions forgotten emergence idea: tariffs accused synergy detract contribution: Semester’s insurmountable contradiction Recall social’: presumably ‘stabilisation’ Costamagna’s terminology) over-emphasis ill-guided (OSE) published Workers’ Multiannual scrutinized (Sabato battery Among undergo check’ convinced suggestion Stefano 47-53) crux Further politically!69) allocating Setting militate 84-92) ‘functional arguments’ warns ‘functionalist fallacy’ ‘exit’ foreclosed blind touch Elsewhere functionalism arguing Cutting somewhere 69 converted ‘Budgetary Instrument Ursula von Leyen’s thoughts ‘improved citizens: applying wages… suggestion: ‘just transition’ yes waiting admittedly worry continuity: continuity worse ‘cheap talk’ side-remark complains profile Package; Barroso formed respect: announces ‘action plan’ clear-headed mobilization note: skeptical project70 observatory “operational arm” threefold: agile user presenting investigations work; 2) makers; 3) testing immodestly “ESU commendable fulfil threefold germinate seed planted culminated volume (A edited Catherine Geert Participating Frank’s REScEU’s channelling spurs warmly thank thoughtful distil advancement post-election legislature (www eu) ERC n 340534 together: worsening witnessed disarticulating polarising Dualisation “core” “peripheral” entered treacherous epoch Heidenreich) “piece “hook” (Francesco Garben) aspirational “manifesto-rights” resource-guarantees fruition hides Emphasising edged sword scattered “capital” gives institutionally triggering “wait see” mood sooner overarching purposeful “carriers” Generalising 2000s “stumbling” Then Blairs’s stumble income71 Almost prediction materialised counting random walk? expressed –supported protection; voids orienting exerted sketches (COM(2018) 132) advantages distinctive model: imprint multi- “Insurance times” emphasizes cross-territorial East- Bogoeski) –based shrewd sympathetic (Financial 2000) Samuel Brittan income- Citizen’s Centre’s “Stumbling integration” (by Bill Jordan Phil Agulnik Duncan Burbidge Stuart Duffin bears inputs formulate boldest proposal: introducing imbalance” enhancement autonomous inducing Room) reconverting agricultural forging Trudi activist mobilized meso-level intermediaries grass- needs/demands transversal preoccupation “moment” Albeit lag “socialisation” “austerianism” moment” politics: election reassuring wing performed incautious Nord Brussel” Leyden President-elect environmentally explains72 Greens) exert “possibility space” track” unthinkable Continuity Vandenbrouke pragmatism weaken Kindly “opening” “closure” highlightened summarise “defeat exitism” awkward “real” sovereignist (Salvini Pen Wilders others) “genuine” conversion (un)feasibility spatial (Eurozone) destructive) “structuring” you Weber- conflict” paradoxical integrative site producing bonding mission: risk-sharing; “active inclusion/cohesion” 72 euvisions eu/the-social-dimension-in-the-electoral-programs-of-the-european-political-groups/ beneficiaries conditionality) valorised complements socialises transactions actuarial incorporated structures- ordinary instinctual whatever happens reciprocity-based epistemically untenable a-symmetric emergency prioritizes notion: born techniques separation (assigned inter-individual redistribution) remained sub-federal cross-state subsidization) prompted survived date wise capitalise formally anchoring conception? 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CSB WORKING PAPER centreforsocialpolicy eu October 2012 No 12 / 09 The Active Welfare State Revisited Frank Vandenbroucke University of Antwerp Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy Sint-Jacobstraat 2 B – 2000 fax +32(0)3 265 57 98 Working Paper ABSTRACT This paper revisits social policy developments in Belgium the decade 2000-2010 on basis stylized facts with regard to spending employment caseload dependency rates and poverty With it focuses long-term evolution Belgian public extent which observed pattern accommodated perceived emergence new risks By means ‘budgetary effort indicators’ analysis disentangles impact demographic evolutions from deliberate shifts broad priorities In addition addresses some critical points performance welfare state such as rising number children at risk need anticipate ageing (briefly) structural changes parts health care system I conclude that preparing next wave reform is imperative this country Corresponding author: frank vandenbroucke@kuleuven be KULeuven Onderzoeksgroep Economie en Overheid Naamsestraat 69 – bus 3565 B-3000 Leuven Introduction 1 (very briefly) As reader may aware author played an active policymaking role during part period under consideration; hence evaluation based figures occasionally complemented a more intuitive assessment grounded experience always flux overview imperative; preparation should guided by set clear objectives evidence- judgment first section provide outline prevailing orientations years To end refer insights terminology emerged 1990s notably distinction between ‘new’ ‘old’ concomitant ‘a state’ past understood chapter longer ongoing story Section describes succeeded accommodating Did programmes replace traditional security schemes? And if ‘crowding out’ did occur was phenomenon 2000s or rather longer- term trend? cash benefits financial However since important driver A shorter version focusing retrospective published Françoise Thys Etienne de Callataÿ Christian Valenduc (eds ) History Public Finance Volume VII Leuven: Universitaire Pers For thorough discussion see (2001); survey reforms Vleminckx (2011); Hemerijck Marx (2010) recent challenges reports Segaert (2009 2010) EU ASISP network Jones (2008) provides interesting account political dimension economic adjustment (and Netherlands) 3 summarily sketches central topics previous explained below governments tried reconcile two strategic were deemed embody ‘active state’: maintain improve where possible adequacy benefits; enhance incentives order increase 4 present inputs serve these activation Sections 5 6 7 discuss outcomes sketch ‘benefit dependency’ labour market participation while discusses whether not performed ‘efficiently’ respect making focus particular child literature ‘new emphasizes invest linking Hence successful constitutes litmus test exercise Other than there are worrying signs warrant reconsideration our 8 briefly problem pension 9 concludes 1. ‘New’ 2000s: presentation Since mid-1990s vast body has develop Three core ideas resonate publications: advent notion investment development services Unemployment old age ill sickness disability burden raising seen constituting states have catered increasingly well Second World War category one might list following (Bonoli 2006): (i) impossibility family responsibility paid labour; (ii) single parenthood; (iii) member; (iv) low inadequate schooling; (v) insufficient coverage due canonical statement Esping-Andersen et al (2002) restatement arguments vein Morel (2012) (2013) framed terms largely sympathetic to) example lack access adequately insured insider positions second acknowledges remediate impacts retrospectively preferable prevent them occurring place through training jobseekers investing education lifelong learning Both goals addressing imply counselling alongside Bismarckian model historically belongs considered ‘cash-heavy’ sense gives priority transfers over Scandinavian contrast service-heavy orientation towards ‘capacitating’ service provision put forward third idea implies dual ambition modernizing so would cope satisfactorily needs contemporary societies ensuring its sustainability argument favour shift capacitating unchallenged scholarly debate Cantillon argues become less ‘pro-poor’ because policies budgets’ (i e budgets catering risks’) tend flow higher income groups whilst opposite true She explains fact work-related thus strongly income- related they make service- oriented; redistributive (Cantillon 2011; thesis 2011) Cantillon’s echoes fundamental tenet Deleeck’s oeuvre his 1983 book ‘Matthew effect’ (Deleeck 1983): benefit budget) middle class lower replacement functions overall equilibrium created necessary reasons legitimacy Yet Matthew effects do tilt balance summarize what exercised much research Here cite ‘risks’ listed Bonoli (2006: 5-8) ubiquitous my opinion somewhat misleading often (but always) concerns situations people control themselves their ‘strike’ Perhaps needs’ accurate phrase ‘Het totaal beeld toont een verdeling waarbij per slot van rekening onderste lagen resp niet-actieven meer opnemen aan vervangingsinkomens hogere actieven uit collectieve goederen diensten (…) Zulk totaalbeeld hierboven verklaard hand structurele culturele examine shifted risks’ delivery general (including care) last 25 It assess distributive but remains crucial question further (see forthcoming) 1999 Verhofstadt government itself task turning into called akin proposed Its aim combine risk’ preventative also emphasizing adequate cater (Vandenbroucke 1999; attempt redefine change developing complementary strategy: add ones other Belgium’s characterized status-preserving distinctions those blue-collar white-collar workers self- employed persons employees statutory civil servants Would entail radical departure legacy? Certainly course self-employed obtained virtually identical rights7 reimbursement servants; pensions incapacity been significantly upgraded These alignments additional expenditure without corresponding extra revenue Specific professional artists onthaalmoeders/gardiennes d’enfants factoren differentiële opname enerzijds anderzijds kan eveneens worden vanuit het politieke sociale besluitvormingsproces De belastingsdruk ten nadele door dezen enkel duurzaam aanvaard mate dat zij ruil hiervoor stelsel voorzieningen ontwikkeld zien hen voldoende aandeel profijt overheid laat opnemen’ 1983: 371) final effect 2001: 342- 343 inspired literature; concurrently had ideational influence beyond politics promoted conceptualization level actor launch Open Method Coordination Inclusion instance influential Why We Need New (Esping-Andersen 2002) outcome project sponsored Government There still difference basic amount supplement rank eliminated before constitutional agreed Di Rupo implemented contribution increased sector pragmatic way Thus pragmatically universal could argued doing once countering fifth Nonetheless ad hoc measures alter fundamentally legacy status-based pillars design Although mutual conception copy-paste True became key objective II government; observation profiles emerged;9 high agenda (as 1990s) But no explicit reference made discourse overcoming differentiation within featured prominently notions ‘new-versus-old-risks’ ‘services- versus-cash’ hindsight pursued (1999- 2003) summarized orientations: i. ii. create lowering taxes earned personal contributions bottom wage scale; iii. bolster competitiveness demand employers’ substituting contributions;10 growing prevalence chronic illness both support chronically quality (specific problems already Dehaene issue only took centre stage I) same emphasis expansion upgrading renewal institutionalized elderly funded federal budget beginning organization Zorgverzekering Flemish Community introduced 2001 can response archetypal reflects mixture semi-Bismarckian (it partially contributions) semi-Beveridgean offers flat rate who qualify) elements does answer consider sub-optimal choice driven breakthrough visible ‘social security’ aspect considerations efficiency space forbids pursue here 10 pledged assured implied (possible) deficits caused decreasing compensated alternative funding mechanisms iv. guarantee better protection measures; v. accommodate ‘rebound’ after austerity 1990s; vi. firmly establish future pensioners pillar sector-based view democratizing similar say (2003-2007) added implement ‘close monitoring’ unemployed; tackle early exit Simultaneously strive surpluses prepare cost ageing; option establishment so-called Silver Fund 11 challenge how successfully ‘8+1’ above representation dominated turned out continue feature post-Verhofstadt 2008-2010) inevitably involves degree hineininterpretieren case all taken programmed politically outset initial (orientation supra) relatively modest compared substantial improvements half decade12 pressure trade unions mobilization against Generation Pact moulded close interaction employers organizations Furthermore impression totally new; accelerating reinforcing line previously launched (Adnet 2002: 165) principle least reflect package scheme whereby aside separate later use; transparent credible budgetary being used (or pre-funding for) super-ministerial council’ 2004 Raversijde point Subsequently presented Parliament 2005 led formal entrenchment linkage standard living (by yearly allowed linkage) Rather detailed individual propose allows cross-country comparison conducive understanding presents just successive able deliver promise above; additionally prior onset crisis spectacular 1970s 1980s gradually approaching sustainable ‘equilibrium’ stabilized ratios (average divided average wages self-employed) stable will leave second-pillar restrict remarks 2. spending: stability 2.1. Figure shows 42 data NAI-NBB Relative GDP spectacularly 1970 14 2% 24% GDP; then declined remained until 2007 structure changed considerably: represented larger share total today 1: 1970-2011 % ‘Early retirement career termination’ ‘Other’ included ‘Working age’ Source: own calculations NBB 2008 considerable impact: percentage reaching 2011 13 most automatic stabilizing either (unemployment benefits) decrease when decreases (child …); minor traced generosity leniency temporarily unemployed reached unprecedented cannot compare OECD SOCX Eurostat ESSPROS go 2009 comprehensive definition (relative GDP) ppt according comparable weighted EU15 using base slightly three neighbouring countries (+ ppt) 2.2. Accommodating demography now turn 1985-2007 Expenditure Database (OECD SOCX) fine-grained Over illustrates relative So conceived seems archetype ‘immovable object’ described Pierson seminal work non-retrenchment (Pierson 2001) applied levels 1985 amounted 26% 24 6% 1989 again 26 9% 1993 4% 3% latest year available context periods stand GDP: 1989-93 2000-2007 (1989 2000) environment: unemployment 1992; recession 1998 onwards doubt role: we 1988 followed le retour du cœur 1989-1991; renewed meet Maastricht euro-entry criteria use divide five categories four associated risks:15 (2011) Meeusen Nys methodology uses restricted ‘public’ (in ESSPROS) function ‘old ‘private spending’ contains private includes statistics (amongst others life insurance Eurostat); why increases very rapidly ESSPROS’s (larger) ‘public 15 serves precise description care; survivor) programmes; families working including housing assistance… excluding categorized ‘new’; allowances cash; programmes’ policies16 maternity parental systems) each show covering frail expanding ‘career break’ ‘leave’ systems classified ‘traditional’ (respectively even comparisons circumspection for; Deken (forthcoming) lists difficulties partitioning ‘risk’ defined 16 expenditures programmes: administration; training; job- rotation job-sharing; incentives; supported rehabilitation; direct job creation; start-up 2: Table ‘turning points’ organize programs (% Health 0 Old (incl survivors) excl ben (of unemployment) Child Maternity Elderly ALMP Total ‘old risks’ 23 22 ‘new (old new) ‘New subsequently approached unweighted schemes neighbours post-unification Germany France Netherlands (Below benchmark ‘our neighbours’; obviously conceals different trajectories concerned profile modernized sight hallmark basically considered; main happened At aggregate indicate; however qualify time decreased words replaced trajectory recorded internal dynamics Between sum old-age reduced marginally Old-age decelerated reasons: declining weight survivor global discussed qualifications) 1996 stricter requirements women 60 65 latter measure inducing remarkable reversal trends employee retirees 915 annum 1991 1997 accelerated 259 fuelled ill- decision abolish reduction coefficients 17 654 began accelerate postponement mainly smaller contained (Festjens forecast 5% 168 500 induced unemployment-based Herremans (2006) estimates phase forms inactivity; exclude ultimately contributed Until i pensionable penalized coefficient example: entailed 25%) abolished; maintained logic behind abolishment ‘brugrustpensioenen’ constituted entry 60-64 bracket minimum upgrade older retirees’ reconnect standards registers 43 volume 1986 1992 virtual standstill six 1998) 33 S-shaped growth curve confirm Cutler’s thesis: succeed suppressing trend progress medical technology (I return below) 18 (- ppt); working-age (a comparatively (the 2007) result inevitable rebound ‘return trend’ characteristic prosperous 2007: surprisingly distress spends do; partly ‘Countries imposed constraints generally experienced about United Kingdom (after slow 1960s Canada 1970s) Japan 1980s) reason underlying dynamic caps eliminate technological change; suppressed manifestations adopted clearest price reductions noted large savings prices doctors quantity far long run cuts inherently limited reduce When falling resume cease ’ (Cutler 898) (and/or assistance pensions) quite apparent differences explain specificity extent: countries; ‘working-age benefits’ emerges heavy spender globo particularly break count offer explanation; small registered 19 30 steady erosion benefits: 1980 8% spent proportion diminished Obviously drivers (just presumably policies) calculate ‘spending capita’ capita: indices selected call indices’ RVA/ONEM indicate (loopbaanonderbreking/interruption carrière tijdskrediet/crédit temps) 08% 09% 19% comparative Budgetary (1985=100) ((Old spending)/(Pop 65+)) /(GDP/CAP) 100 92 93 78 77 ((Child care)/(Pop <5))/(GDP/CAP) 89 134 667 775 (ALMP/unemployed)/(GDP/CAP) 129 172 163 ((Family allowances)/(Pop < 20))/(GDP/CAP) 68 index review decline marked 2000; marginal earlier follow population Improvements checked downward Does inform us implicit intergenerational policy? First caveat denominator ratios: capita sources positively affected earnings presuppose deterioration necessarily contract perspective interpretation depends valuation retiree Today live claim longer; ratio matter) therefore interpreted improvement capital 65-year-old expect receive he she expected 20 ago Whether longevity regarded well-being moot am inclined increasing combination source 2012) highlight adjusted household size gradual ‘age allowances’ introduction premium lone parents disabled so- ‘yearly allowance’; dispersion selective (RKW Using individuals find child’ 68% young precondition consequence feminization documented Similarly (ALMP) match unemployed: ‘ALMP unemployed’ considerably qualifies evidence expense Except field ‘adding’ ‘replacing’ existing Moreover conceal occupational (‘direct creation’) (for regions Klerck Van Wichelen 2008) creation effective (which activation-oriented increase) service-oriented ‘in-kind 23% 34% Northern Anglo-Saxon never let alone ‘cash/services’ regrettable lacuna thinking institutional tensions polity Given adults obtain appears On hardly excluded 3. 3.1. norm After inauguration controversial limits supervision: practice permitted negotiated coalition partners annual approach offered advantage strong exerted actors (medical paramedical professions hospital managers funds) accept quid pro quo deserved drive greater modernization culminated ‘2002 Agenda Change Care’ emphasized striving professionals hospitals operational via non-linear correction linear recognition unjustified divergences sometimes though North South along regional lines signified acknowledgment predicated North-South remedy ‘split up system’ encourage choices Another 2002 Care General Practitioner (GP) topic worked detail special report Dr Karel Meulebroeke signalled start consistent efforts medicine established Knowledge (Federaal Kenniscentrum voor Gezondheidszorg) purpose evidence-based ‘health norm’ volume) unfortunate controversy run-up elections; efficiently That contain immediate management slowed down My must contrary perfectly legitimate health; rationally given importance attach healthy (Hall 2007; Murphy Topel 2006) Increasing facing good too mid-term argue fixing any indefinite bad 3.2. Agenda: perhaps revalorization Meeus Aubel concise ‘check up’ 45-54 nominal median GPs 77% subgroups profession Productivity patients GP (on + 25% FTE GP) Medical File (GMF 13% 54% GPs’ patients) home visits non-urgent cases … significant ‘fee-for-service’ mixed system: 97 remuneration consisted payments around 20% types capitation-like GMF lump accreditation ICT administration infrastructure local consultation …21 medicine: maintaining workforce serious near document persistent appropriateness relation first-line (e g breast cancer screening prescription antibiotics clinical biology imaging…) broader issue: picture newly Federal institution issued ‘performance assessment’ 2010 summarizing provisional findings follows: “In system’s accessibility; moderate safety; 21 Figures provided Ri Ridder RIZIV effectiveness preventive sustainability; curative continuity indicators [the reported caution limitations] [S]ome suggest healthcare efficient day pathways etc although signals appropriateness) ” (Vlayen 2010: 102) implementations designed promote responsible informed drugs prescribed hospitals) pharmaceuticals ‘reference prices’ generic accompanied various behaviour major cumulative aimed low-cost medication delivered ambulatory settings dramatically controlling volumes consumed campaigns ‘good practice’ guidelines National Council Promotion Quality (also 2002; Gerkens Merkur 61 110) hard gauge initiatives clearly instruments appear exert real ostensibly induce compliance posteriori’ recuperation rectifying undue diagnostic techniques medico-technical interventions appendectomy (Merkens Gerkur 56-59) Under known amount’ exhibiting outlier specified asked refund costs generated excess lot invested aftermath finally confined Consequently failed genuinely disparity hospitals: rounds discern amounts’ coincided heated inner-circle opt overconsumption reclaiming cost) prospective allocation ‘all-in relating Strong resistance blocked (although inserted possibility legislation) introducing all-in interference financing currently fees pathologies treated cumbersome bound challenged forcefully lesson learned requires convincing translated tangible incremental process proven innovative changing (albeit country) current indispensable; harder nut crack raises bargaining ‘medico-mut’) capable playing constructive transformation 3.3. Financial accessibility Historically organized fee- for-service involving out-of-pocket According Data out- of-pocket households UK Sweden 1% Switzerland co-payments reimbursable products actual reimbursed) constitute out-of- pocket components ‘supplements’ mean solidarity domain France: highly differentiated mitigated preferential reimbursement; consequently born severe conditions and/or incomes cited One Dutch reveals scores best solidarity’ ranked second’ ahead comes heart disease (Houkes Nevertheless limiting concern patient co- co-payment inhabitant take Maximum Billing (MAB) cap MAB combines selectivity universality suggesting juxtaposition ‘selectivity’ versus ‘universality’ abstract debates misguided: formula yet protective device accumulation helps Out-of-pocket official supplements (De Wolf Assuralia developed par (remaining 2003-2010 OECD) macro pose equity fairness sections Notwithstanding ‘containment’ Surveys group postpone 7% respondents complex poor background expenses relations realities urban Brussels (Mimilidis Demarest compulsory application ‘third payer’ belonging weaker (thereby eliminating prefund reimbursement) overdue Apart improving promotion Schokkaert affordability sufficient condition me elaborate upon inequality status (Van Oyen 4. typifying gather foremost (section 1) aspects side equation forget compensation side; board packages’; transition improved mitigate inactivity traps activation; 4.1. Benefit stabilization partial repair decades broaden scope till 2020 private-sector invalidity illness) temporary drawing Planning Bureau (FPB) Vil 3: Global gross salary) p 29 calculated dividing beneficiary informative token specific sub- branches compositional retired started leveled off reversed retrenchment ended confirmed FPB’s sub-categories Taken separately male female much; FPB documents 2009: came halted singles cohabitants heads) maximums branch super- ministerial momentum Mobilization wake formally entrenched decisions 2007-2009 An Net Income (NNI/cap) NNI/cap makes residual diverges employment/population non-elderly matter focused structuring beneficiaries giving halt continued minimums erode NNI (2009) considers hierarchy stalled general; shown net Next re-establish link aspiration restore principles (however leeway returning principles) Inkomensgarantie Ouderen (Garantie Revenus aux Personnes âgées) Gewaarborgd Inkomen Bejaarden/Revenu Garanti means-tested 2006 survivors re-emerged se nuanced Goedemé synthesis fit incapacitated characterize ‘residualization’) 4.2. indication determine avoiding packages disposable information (singles; parents; earner couples children; earners children) situations: full-time wage; unemployed23 benefit; maximum (below ‘unemployment’ shortcut unemployment); (leefloon/revenu d’intégration sociale) takes relevant parent ‘household income’ ‘income’ shortcut) evaluate (real corrected consumer index) expressed rough incentive implemented; simultaneously Adequacy 1999-2010 parent) Real wage) unemploym 14% 36% 16% 11% 100% 63% 70% 80% 109% 60% 84% 81% 117% 59% 93% 103% 106% 143% 87% 89% 98% 128% 82% 79% 90% 139% 72% 69% 127% 67% 22% 83% 91% 94% 134% 74% 120% CPI 57% 49% Note: Simulations months (if met) exist simulations Centrum Sociaal Beleid (STASIM model) thanks Kristel Bogaerts Four conclusions drawn except NNI/cap: single-earner saw purchasing power erosive NNI/cap; gain type (mainly ‘workbonus’) unchanged corroborate studies (Bogaerts 2008; Nevejan weak (neither absolute nor NNI/cap) Flanders tax reform) (Nevejan 35) segment note trap part-time Appendix update Bogaerts’s transitions non-employment drawn: Successive Inkomensgarantie-uitkering (IGU) enhanced fully move top-up IGU having equitable degrees effort); (with top-up) non-existent leefloon destroyed discontinuation exceeds certain depending contradictory preoccupations: fall loss full- income; motivated financially Fine-tuning applying resolve conundrum (cf infra) someone (according ‘progressive re- scheme’) boost seem incapacity) Reluctance behalf engage together interest advisors disappointing 4.3. turn: monitoring harsh sanctions Employment Conference September 2003 schizophrenia decentralization placement responsibilities availability decoupled Now reconnected inter-institutional cooperation agreement infamous article 80 code regulated systematic suspension whose ’abnormally long’ mechanism said brutal consequences (exclusion right warning look work) sub-category women) (since incorporated strategy) Article regulation covers initially under-50s) sanctions) works preventatively essence imposing punitive framework stricto sensu definitive exclusions 2009-2001 (5 906 cases) 30% 2001-2003; apart exclusions; 2009-2011 640 (RVA/ONEM) unsuccessful Cockx ‘transmissions’ national agency variety contraventions regulation: transmissions ensuing closely Finally mining drastically fight fraud resulted unrelated 5. 15-64 (data Clasen caseloads assistance) follows displaying peaked 1990 Then climbed peak flattening dropped boom apparently interact communicating vessels offset Despite slight banner diminish 4: Older exempted seeking ‘Unemployment’ summary Denmark table data) adding Caseload aged 15-64) Work Early (i-iv) 27 underscores among study Relatively namely substantially downside German Swedish performance: coin hinges contributors displays dependent regime 2030 (black line) 65+ 15+ (grey adult (15+) (dashed grey (changing) institutions: non-employed economically heyday breadwinner 5: Calculated Studiecommissie Vergrijzing supplied FPS Security Nicole Fasquelle Christophe Joyeux Guy Camp contributing 40% 1970s; nearly 1984; fluctuating 95% 1996) explosive change: constant reflecting mass Additionally rely familial (In trends; explanatory factors markets absorb baby boomers aspiring mid-1980s 1984 1994) market; returned (nearly) 1975 peaking manifested (de facto officially promulgated) Henceforth steep acceleration scenario assumes influenced 64 entitled big shocks hypotheses steadily Two observations moving ‘equilibrium configuration’ insofar interrelation continuation becomes pervasive push upwards From dependencies satisfactory What interruption decided government? dotted 85 (instead 86 scenario) 94 95 scenario); Report thank available) series pre-crisis 101 0) 90 results salaried important) negligible path reform: waves positive ‘volume’-impact neutralized ‘prize-effect’ pensions; 6. Individual employment: frozen landscape hysteresis joblessness 6.1. rates: gender educational attainment Walloon Regions brackets 2000-2008; comparing 2000-2011 2000-2008 highlights compares age-education sub-groups mentioned brackets) forecasts judged optimistic concerning reaction Neefs 55-64 paragraphs mention tables request (ppt) Wallonia (changes Belgiium 25-34 35-44 25-64 M V T Low-skilled -17 -11 -12 -4 -2 -7 -3 (-12 5) (-9 (-6 7) (1 4) (11 (4 9) (6 (-4 (-1 8) Medium-skilled -6 -0 (-2 (-0 (2 (9 3) (14 2) (0 High-skilled -1 6) (10 (-3 (12 (7 -15 -16 -5 (13 (3 (8 (15 x ≥ ≤ -10 -19 -9 (-14 (-7 (18 -8 Steunpunt WSE 6: Comparison (between (difference BE-EU15 FL-EU15 WA-EU15 (-8 (-13 (-11 (-15 (-10 -13 recovering shock (conflating age) attainment) youngest generation (25-29) suffered full ages skill cohort low-skilled numbers younger grow likewise Added voucher boosted Possibly strikingly men negative high-skilled 54 medium-skilled 44 cohorts 49 men) age-specific: generations declined; position secondary education) 41 skilled; assume counterparts Due skills outspoken 31 holds age: 50 sobering Even EU15: age/gender low-skilled; reality (much lags EU15) applies workers: over-50s Wallonia; over-55s across ‘problem profiles’ discrepancies averages age-related; primarily skills-related headcounts; converted equivalents European LFS obtain: ‘full-time equivalent’ 56 Hoge Raad Werkgelegenheid hours extensive shorter-working linked extensively administrative Geurts Already certainly actively jobs 28 mature sound entitlements safeguarded merits attention successes associate Service vouchers large-scale shifting (Gerard originality pathway lies open collective subsidized expensive operation Besides ‘buts’ consideration bottlenecks remain: nationwide age-related easy unambiguous causal Elements economy offering come fore emphatically possibilities Pact) shortcomings (unqualified inadequately qualified outflow) arises remain yield despite contributions? Activation ‘but’ probably inevitable: cheap consistency naive belief ‘bonuses’ wrong-headed Was employer 1999) served increases? wrong wiser secure commitment lose imperatives launching ambitious plan cut essentially face qualification needed facilitate dialogue economists tatonnement process: looking optimal subsidies get running beat illicit Initially deliberately Surprisingly sacrosanct governmental circles deduction purely deal held acknowledged bonus supply: like creates substitution positive: opportunity leisure increases) negative: constraint shifts) (Maes flaws bonuses employees) Overall cost-effectiveness ‘non-budgetary’ got ground issues blue modernize waiting addressed 6.2. Jobless households: overlooks distribution crucially influences traditionally level) patterns mean: employed) 18-59 jobless almost figure 4%); disquieting exceptional: many translate nowhere gap wide ‘polarization index’ hypothetical assuming distributed randomly Corluy highest polarization approx 10%) high; evidently top ‘job ranking’ (together UK) unlike nonetheless mathematical truism nature pooling play explanation (using 20-59) illustrate 50%; ‘jobless households’ (assuming households) 76%) polarized Germany: 32 Comparing belong Länder rates; lowest ‘middle group’ situated extremes illustrated ranking database (LFS SILC) normalized 54+) discarded pronounced (depending indicator used) 20-59 lives ‘pooling’ theoretically ceteris paribus Higher (33 vs 8%) 7. record: generational 7.1. record at-risk-of-poverty floating threshold equal equivalent They Survey Living Conditions (SILC) interpreting material deprivation data33 survey; SILC informs ‘SILC T’ T-1 Member States crisis; upshot paradoxically Belgium: estimate inferred Unchanged composition stabilizers intrinsic conventional If anchor freezing row 7: Age (%) Incomes At-risk-of-poverty BE <18 Poverty euro's 10328 10791 11678 12005 104 113 116 inflation 105 At-risk-of anchored 0% Material (> items) Inflation consumption T-1/T-2 site confidence intervals cautious cross- Below tests statistical significance (Table Discarding differs tendency Conversely downwards 34 corroborates 35 readily explained; value tells homeownership parameter assessing taking situation) ‘material deprivation’ 36 non- population; Continental Europe typically strong: affects warrants subsection 37 [18-64] (not here) (nominal 22%) 17%) sufficiently indicative robust afford nine items: pay rent mortgage utility bills; keep warm; unexpected expenses; eat meat proteins regularly; holiday; television set; washing machine; car; telephone ‘difficulties ends meet’ Economy SILC-based website ‘at-risk-of-poverty indicator’ EU’s inclusion overestimate underestimate strain headcount postponing (Section notwithstanding at- risk-of-poverty derived (Storms Storms’s suggests overestimation (most importantly non-working house sector) underestimation (certainly teenagers parents) vis-à-vis (notably elderly) energy school costs… campaigned ‘at-risk-of- poverty’ coordination (Atkinson 2002); useful simple common measuring rod fortiori wellbeing striking variation (FPS Economy) headcounts Insofar perceptible 7.2. children: decomposition Investing appeared leitmotif Esping-Andersen’s found weigh heavily explicitly advocated reallocation childhood vocational ensure knowledge-based contradiction privileging phases (“good begin birth” book) proper struck hereafter referred ‘children’ indicated zooms contrasting confine elucidating sample 8: (**) (Brussels) (***) subject margins error Calculations EU-SILC (based standardized income) thresholds sure integrated correct relying normative calculating yields intra-regional Belgian-wide threshold) harbours rich assume) Wallonia’s Applying Flanders: ‘diminishes’ statistically (again thresholds) (from mediocre performer EU27 Norway Iceland disregarding Malta) wish 9: Decomposition C D E F G H J K Country Some Difference by… 20-54 Transfers (excl pens Share work-rich work-poor DK 38 NO 84 40 Flanders-BE 91 IS FI 52 SI 82 67 Flanders-FL SE 59 NL 47 CZ 81 CY 83 AT DE 55 FR 88 SK BELGIUM EE IE 72 48 HU 73 LU 70 Wallonia-WA 74 PL PT LT GR 76 63 79 ES LV IT 87 Wallonia-BE 75 BG RO Avergae 62 Correlation (ongewogen gemiddelde correlaties alleen lidstaten) values (BE included) threshold; computations Wim Lancker Aaron den Heede Work-rich/work-poor cut-off 45% work-intensity (EU2020 definition) Columns C-G obvious encountered 2008: (column C); D); intensity38 ‘relatively E) Households intensity labelled ‘work-poor’ correlate (Flanders-BE Wallonia-BE) (Flanders-FL; Wallonia-WA) ourselves Nordic perform Southern worse map Europe) cluster figures: (68 6%) 4%) (percentage points) terms: few 45%): corresponds incomes) 9%; cf column D) decompose H) ‘Work intensity’ working- members (excluding students) theoretical part- habitual interview definitions work-intensity) contributory ignoring term; exposition): I); J); K) decomposed Danish Italy entirely attributable Italian visualizes regions) mechanical regarding causality (For incorrect perspective; tentative Countries infer ‘trade-off’ Belgium) Ireland Hungary ‘average’ exception (at group; (IE HU) fighting 7.3. thought ‘efficiency spending’? Is range way? transfers) allow judgement ‘efficiency’ independent variable) variables) Visual inspection learns ‘borderline case’ transfer intend 39 Putting reconnecting functioning architecture grants Previous reflections difficult ‘room manoeuvre’ 1995 existent devolved papers Pestieau Lefebvre Perelman Space 8. quest justice strategy chosen aspired vice virtue debt taxation instead went Research deficit required corresponded precisely 1995) twofold bolstered motivation parties comply entering Eurozone paralyzing state’s assumed tackled saving systemic century strictly broadened double track state: goal setting reserves pedagogically visualized Fund; generalization democratic first-pillar Towards insufficiently square met head-on reassessed intrinsically overoptimistic Simplifying matters implicitly postulated precedence societal coming disputable: Many confronting climate claims naïve think settled straightjacket paying parametric Berghman Peeters rightly stress learn far? elements: negligible; neglected bonus-systems indicates ‘volume’-effect ‘prize’-effect (both is: broad-based adapts systematically expectancy served: hand? 9. Preparing Policies implementing incrementally scale mixed: market(s) catch More ‘the ageing’ expectations implementation Insufficient areas cost-efficiency During proved usefulness absorber (though consequences) complacent write ‘being glorifying reputation ago’ (Lefebvre 11) echoing warnings (2005) Concurrently incisive embarked underscore Realizing require adoption Acknowledgement Kim Lievens Ron Diris Jan Vanthuyne Bea Muriel Dejemeppe Dirk Moens Diana Graeve Michel Breda Vincent Greet Koen Gijs Dekker Patrick Lusyne Willem Adema Esther Deman Jef Maes Leen Steven Frederic Taveirne Tuba Bircan Marie-Jeanne Festjens Karen Evelyne Hens Erik Anthony Langenbergh Natascha Mechelen Cis Caes Stephen Windross punctual usual disclaimers apply Bibliography Adnet Bernadette ‘La sécurité au l’assainissement des finances publiques l’emploi’ in: (ed Het einde budgettair tekort Analyse recente evolutie Belgische openbare financiën (1990-2000) Geschiedenis Openbare Financiën België Deel VI Brussel: Boeck 149-168 Atkinson Barnes Eric Marlier Brian Nolan Indicators: Exclusion Oxford: Oxford Press Jos Hans Pension Protection Overview Challenges Text prepared workshop occasion honorary John Myles KU February http://soc kuleuven be/ceso/pensioenbeleid Bestaan er nog financiële vallen werkloosheid bijstand België? UA/Berichten Universiteit Antwerpen Ive P Inactiviteitsvallen personen handicap langdurige gezondheidsproblemen Studie opdracht Vlaamse minister Werk Onderwijs Vorming kader VIONA- onderzoeksprogramma Te raadplegen op www centrumvoorsociaalbeleid Giuliano post-industrial policies’ Klaus Armingeon Politics Post-Industrial Adapting post-war London/New York: Routledge 3-26 Bérénice Storms Gerlinde Verbist Bosch (1995) Wegen naar grotere doelmatigheid kinderbijslag belastingsaftrek kinderen laste Veerle Maesschalck bodem welvaartsstaat tot nu daarna ‘Hoe sociaal zeker zekerheid nog? Reflecties toekomst België’ Belgisch Tijdschrift Sociale Zekerheid 4:719:735 Tim ‘De kinderbijlslag werknemersstelsel: terugblik bij jaar kinderbijslag’ 1:7-34 ‘The paradox Lisbon era’ Journal (5): 432-449 http://dx doi org/10 1177/0958928711418856 Better Worse Richer Poorer Labour redistribution forthcoming Bart Bruno Der Linden Evaluation l’activation comportement recherche d’emploi Ghent: Academia Household Risk Analysis CSB-Working 12/06 Cutler David ‘Equality Efficiency Market Fundamentals: Dynamics International Medical-Care Reform’ Economic Literature 40: 891-906 Johan ‘Belgium: precursor muddling through?’ Jochen Daniel Clegg Regulating Unemployment: Adaptations Markets 100-120 ‘Measuring ‘Tracking caseloads: receipt Europe’ 297-317 W L actief arbeidsmarktbeleid Vlaanderen Europa?’ nr 3-4: 10-24 Huybrechts (1983) Matteüseffect ongelijke overheidsuitgaven Antwerpen: Kluwer (2001) architectuur opnieuw bekeken Acco Welvaartsbinding bijstandsuitkeringen/Liaison bien-être prestations sociales allocations d’assistance 4-11 Tonio Zinno Jean-Marc Laasman Marijke Duynslaeger Vanoverloop Ziekenhuisbarometer Aard omvang kosten patiënt algemeen ziekenhuis Socialistische Mutualiteiten Gosta Duncan Gallie Anton pensioen Een lange termijn schrikbeeld vergrijzing’ Marc Despontin Jegers verzekerd? Referaten 22ste Vlaams Wetenschappelijk Economisch Congres Brussels: VUBPRESS 271-331 (1997) pensioenhervorming nieuwe generatie nieuw Gerard Maarten Daphné Valsamis der Beken Evaluatie dienstencheques buurtdiensten -banen IDEA Consult Sophie Sherry System Review’ Systems Transition 12(5): 1-266 Meer werknemers minder werk recepten als antwoord DynaM 2012/2 August ‘Hoogte adequaatheid minima periode 2000-2011’ Vranken Willy Lahaye Annelinde Gerts Catherine Coppée Armoede Jaarboek Leuven/The Hague: 215-238 Hall R (2007) rise Quarterly Economics 112: 39-72 Changing ‘Continental Crossroads: Choice Minimum Netherlands’ Palier Long Goodbye Bismarck? Reform Amsterdam: Amsterdam 129-155 ‘Pension paths: Nick Heuvel Peter Hallen Christine Erhel Pierre Courtioux arbeidsmarkt Special Issue Ageing employability Arbeidsmarkt 141-154 Verslag Actief ouder FOD WASO Houkes Aenneli Mieke Rijken Makai Eigen betalingen chronisch zieken gehandicapten internationaal onderzoek SEO Onderzoek & Nivel Adjustment Political Transformation Small Mathieu Sergio ll’Etat-providence européen Quel enseignement pour la Belgique ?’ : Regards Economiques December 93:&-13 Marjan reforming old- Discussion 2008-40 Université Catholique Louvain ‘welfare work’ Schubert Simon Hegelich Ursula Bazant Handbook London: 49-64 X Performantie huisartsgeneeskunde check-up Services (HSR) Rijksinstituut Ziekte- Invaliditeitsverzekering (RIZIV) Annemie Are crowding old? 12/08 Mimilidis Hélène Stefaan Les determinants l’accès soins santé Une étude besoins non-satisfaits raisons financièressur l’enquête belge ISSP/WIV June Nathalie Joakim Palme Investment State? Ideas longevity’ 114: 871-904 Boie Luc Sels doelstelling binnen handbereik? Potentiële tewerkstellingseffecten hervorming uittredestelsels’ 22: 93-101 Hendrik Financiële prikkels werkhervatting werklozen leefloontrekkers België: heden verleden Documentatienota 2009-1486 Centrale Bedrijfsleven werkloosheidsvallen 2011-0189 Paul Rijksdienst Kinderbijslag Werknemers maandelijkse 2010’ Focus 2011-2 Joeri Guillaume Ann Lecluyse Hervé Avalosse Cornelis Stephan Devriese Carine Voorde effecten maximumfactuur consumptie toegankelijkheid gezondheidszorg 80A KCE- Federaal Gezondheidszorg ASISIP Annual Pensions Long-term http://socialprotection eu/files_db/208 /asisp_ANR09_Belgium eu/files_db/884/ asisp_ANR10_Belgium Jaarverslag Brussel actieve Europees perspectief Den Uyl lecture Also Stichting Uyl-lezing spoor Uyl- lezingen 1988-2008 Strategische keuzes beleid ‘beleid onderzoek’ ‘Geluk politiek: pleidooi helder denken’ Studium Generale 2011-2012 Gent: ‘Disappointing trends: blame?’ 21: 450-471 ongelijkheden gezondheid Vlayen Joan Katrien Vanthomme Cécile Camerlin Julien Piérart Denise Walckiers Laurence Kohn Imgard Vinck Alain Denis Pascal Hermann Leonard eerste stap meten performantie gezondheidszorgsysteem KCE-reports 128A KCE hervormingen verzorgingsstaat: kroniek’ 3de trimester 403-456 appendix starting A1 ‘active’ situation numerator STASIM Bogaerts) Part-time maintenance 1999-2000 benefit) 18% 29% 146 109 117 102 133 27% 142 58 121 (bestaansminimum 136 96 119 -13% 128 17% 118 Definitions: pov = wp (‘work- households’) wr (‘work-rich wo (‘other pwp pwr pwo Belgium; are: 5(wrA wrB 5(wpA wpB 5(woA woB 5( pwpA pwpB pwrA pwrB pwoA pwoB old) povB povA ( (wrB wrA )( pwp) Whereby to: pwp)(woB woA accounting technique indicating A3 Cash Benefits relationship (except post-transfer include collected cutoff equivalised thick estimated regression employing variable thin give bounds vertical bars graphs 1-A3 Reduction refers population) lifted (work-poor) 45 restricting Computations A4

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138a-Redevoering-redenaarsconcert_Geluk_jan2011

1 Geluk als doelstelling geluk Een pleidooi voor vitaliteit * Frank Vandenbroucke Redenaarsconcert “De Triomf van de Menselijkheid” Brugge 8 januari/ Gent 12 Antwerpen 15 januari 2011 En se concentrant sur “favellar in musica” l’expression musicale du “je” Monteverdi place l’individu au centre nouveau monde musical: il donne le moyen en tant que compositeur d’exprimer sa vision personnelle permet chanteur soliste son émotion et condition humaine invite l’auditeur à projeter dans l’oeuvre prendre part par biais intelligence sensibilité propre (…) un mot c’est l’aventure l’interprétation qui commence: nous interrogeons ce dit travers elle la ses interprètes y projetons enfin nos propres questions inquiétudes valeurs Bernard Foccroulle La musique naissance moderne1 Gioia – “Had ik zoveel harten hemel sterren heeft gebladerte heuvels dragen groene mei allemaal zouden ze vol zijn overstromen het dat me vervult ” Kan je innig mooier laten klinken dan Orpheus Rosa del Ciel? Heel terecht zingen herders nimfen op einde eerste bedrijf: “Vandaag is zó gelukkig er niets méér waar hij nog naar zou verlangen Als zo cruciaal alles omvattend één ander onderwerp ons moet bezighouden dan… geluk? Zou politiek niet moeten hebben: veel mogelijk mensen? We hebben natuurlijk over uitbundige maar – om eenvoudig te houden tevredenheid leven we leiden Dat daarvoor zorgen was stelling Jeremy Bentham filosoof uit 18de eeuwse Verlichting Toen economie begon studeren waren mijn cursussen doordrongen utilitarisme Of beter een nogal magere erfenis daarvan Het ene mens bleek ondanks enthousiasme immers moeilijk vergelijken met andere rekenkunde waarbij mensen bij elkaar optelt of verdeling weegschaal legt onmogelijk erkenden utilitaristen na enige wat kon veronderstellen zich hun keuzes door eigen ondersteunde uitsluitend naïeve theorie efficiëntie markten vrije keuze garantie maximaal individueel verhinderde uitspraken sociale rechtvaardigheid Ik eigenlijk wàt blij verlost werd Met dank aan John Rawls: die formuleerde robuuste maatstaven zoiets nevelig “geluk” Rawls “theorie rechtvaardigheid” opgebouwd vanuit fundamentele kritiek Je middelen toelaten levensplan goed realiseren inkomen vermogen bijvoorbeeld eerlijk verdelen Over kan iets zinnig vertellen Bovendien zélf verantwoordelijk doen waarover beschikken Ze ook recht erg verschillende opvattingen gaan a priori alle “een leven” gelijk stellen stelt dus scherp zgn “primaire goederen” Amartya Sen meer fijnmazig Toon Vandevelde Mark Elchardus Isabelle Devos Bart Martens Anton Delbarre Agsteribbe Gerd Bours Philippe De Coene wie ter voorbereiding besproken heb Francis Maes bijkomende opmerkingen Kim Lievens praktische hulp Zij zullen ongetwijfeld zeer verbaasd gekomen verantwoordelijkheid ligt geheel mij 2 daardoor sterker alternatief ontwikkeld Hij beklemtoont reële mogelijkheden deze dingen toestand waarvan redenen waardevol vinden Maar kijk terug Richard Layard gerespecteerd econoom inspirator activering werkzoekenden jaren ’90 pleit sinds enkele onomwonden terugkeer beste beleid datgene grootste oplevert Want zegt samen vele “gelukswetenschappers” wél objectief vaststellen zelfs blijkt dan? Westen al tientallen gestaag rijker worden geen spat gelukkiger! suggereert volgende verklaring: “Sinds Tweede Wereldoorlog hoger nationaal inderdaad tot toename geleid rijke landen tenietgedaan leed gevolg minder harmonieuze verhoudingen Let wel staat ver af beschouwt individualistische non-filosofie onstuitbare individualisme bracht aldus “niet omdat ieder individu gretig deed zichzelf krijgen echt willen concept algemeen belang nodig waaraan onze bijdrage leveren ”2 “Het ideaal Verlichting” “definieert iedereen wordt verlangd evenveel anderen geven onszelf medemenselijkheid vanzelf bevordert isolement verbreekt ”3 weet 1990 stichter-directeur befaamde Centre for Economic Performance (LSE) boek Happiness verrassende lectuur hoofdstuk “Hoe maken ratrace?” eindigt beschouwing: “Zekerheid èn innerlijke rust goederen groeien afnemen naarmate Toch onder bovenlaag Europa Verenigde Staten gemeengoed geworden verandering vernieuwing hoogste doel beschouwen Niets innovatief Bureaucraten slaan opgewekt saneren overheidsdiensten bewust feit iedere reorganisatie persoonlijk vertrouwen gevoel zekerheid grote schaal schaadt kritische vaststelling leidt hem sleutelvraag: “Wat groter krijgen?”4 Vergis u echter economische neemt welfare-to-work waarmee Europese regeringen aanzette goede midden kiezen tussen harde aanpak ogen “lankmoedige Frans-Duitse manier” 5 roep alleen flexibiliteit arbeidsmarkt vindt verstandig precies onzekerheid creëert “In plaats daarvan” schrijft “zouden zowel betrekking alsook flexibele lonen [waarmee doelt decentralisering loonoverleg inruilen loonstijging werkzekerheid] nastreven ”6 Layard’s conclusie beenhard: discrepantie rijkdom zoals meten Bruto Nationaal Product prioritair thema vormen 7 denk juist heel concreet maken: bijsturingen onderwijsbeleid werkgelegenheidsbeleid gezinsbeleid gezondheidsbeleid geestelijke gezondheidszorg … toch geloof altijd regel heldere opvatting geeft Politiek instaan rechtvaardige samenleving herleiden “zoveel geluk” veronderstelt rechten vrijheden; tegenslag waarvoor niét solidariteit herverdeling daarmee samenhangt; herverdeeld worden; grenzen lidmaatschap dus… dissidente stem Van Parijs laat prachtige verzamelboek Leo Bormans Geluk: “Allemaal maatschappij gelukkige maatschappij” 3 Waarom vind geluid? Wel meetbaar kunnen optellen aftrekken vergelijken… schort idee dé geslaagd Neem vrouw haar mensenrechten ontzegt vrouwen: zeggen is? vreemd vrouwen spreken vervolgens Aristoteles voeren want vreselijk dwaze gezegd wijze verteld Werkelijk betekenis ontwikkeling menselijke activiteit doel-stelling Deze liberalisme opvat vrijheid-blijheid-zonder-meer zéér anti-liberaal hebt plichten tegenover plicht jezelf (maar toegegeven zo’n armzalige doe aantal liberalen onrecht aan; zij verwijzen Stuart Mill) daar perfectionist in: moest beantwoorden standaarden uitmuntendheid vertalen perfectionistisch filosofe Martha Nussbaum doet garanderen voldoende mate beschikt ontwikkelen overeenstemming sterke waardigheid Hoe verder gebruiken welke richting ontplooien welk spoor opbouwen geldt hanteert perfectionistische 9 eens gaat geluksgevoel ben politicus milde versie ten persoonlijke titel strengere sturen gelukswetenschappers af? Neen Verstandige filosofen concrete beschouwingen vaak Op vraag antwoordt Christopher Peterson twee woorden samenvatten: “andere mensen” “Affiliatie” (verbondenheid anderen) meest ontwikkelingsmogelijkheden “Geluk vloeit voort verbondenheid engagement acties bevestigen Zingeving andersom” Gary T Reker Ook sluit perfect raad materiële nooit “alle neo-Aristotelianen delen” 10 Beeld volgt louter gedachtenexperiment samenlevingen Justland gelukzalige Happyland spelregels rechtvaardiger vast gemiddeld gelukkiger minst gelukkigen Zouden besluiten misschien rechtvaardigheid? dun weinig oog voorwaarden geluk; enge herverdelen draait rond geld bijvoorbeeld? Kortom frisse vertaling oude levert nuttige spiegel ideeën blijft precieze zien krijgt? lang bezig houdt land economen Erik Schokkaert 11 zegde loopt mank onderscheid “geluksgevoel” “tevredenheid “rechtvaardigheid” praktijk lijken relevante definities gelijkenissen vertonen Mensen wijzen “intrinsiek egalitaire karakter ware gelukspolitiek eenvoudiger ongelukkigen Omdat armoede funest geluksbeleid egalitair” 4 “maar vertoont verwantschap welvaartsstaten voorbije vijftig jaar Noordwest-Europa levenslicht zagen vond Scandinavische (en name manier waarop onderzoekers welzijn burgers beoordelen) toepassing Aristoteliaanse benadering “Aristoteliaanse sociaaldemocratie” noemt risico’s kinderen verliezen Grieken zeker sterk breekbaarheid 13 kwetsbaarheid Die kwaadheid slechtheid vermijdbaar voorwerp menselijk falen toeval wijten Griekse tragedies noemen “het natuur” sterven jonge leeftijd Daarmee geconfronteerd toen geliefde Euridyce gebeten slang luisteren verdriet Lamento moe Tony Judt prachtig nagelaten Ill fares the vertaler even mooie Nederlandse titel: moe” 14 onbehagen beschrijft blinde markt ging overheersen teloorgang stelde deel betoog Is algemeenheid juist? Ja voorwaarde kijkt rijkste gemiddelde bestaan West-Europa toegenomen gemeten tweede wereldoorlog meeste West-Europese ’70 schril contrast BNP per hoofd bevolking mogen gebrekkige indicator Echter wanneer armere duidelijk positief verband “gemiddeld enerzijds “BNP bevolking” eerder wereldwijd bekeken stijgende gunstige effect afneemt niveau bereikt krom (Zéér verbazend niet: maakt ) U zal nu weten waarom groei irrelevant vanaf bepaald niveau… hoed daarover boude uitspraak Er verklaringen Rijke arme twijfel iederéén stijgt Vanaf lijkt gebaseerd vooral kwestie vergelijking “vergelijking anderen” competitieve helaas aangemoedigd Om vergelijken…16 tenminste stap voorbij methodologische kritieken e daarop formuleren) levensomstandigheden instellingen bestuur bestuurde tolerante groot sociaal kapitaal sommige wetenschappers “egalitaire” specifieke geluksfactor identificeren: inkomensgelijkheid onderstreep evidentie? punten geruststellend Contra critici moderniteit Ton Lemaire betreft reputatie beeld ontleen Jan Delhey In tegenstelling doemdenkers moderne westerse snelste weg ongeluk depressie wetenschap toont praatjes Oef! Zijn happy end autostrade vooruitgang?17 kom punt BNP-groei wij gedachten ongelooflijke expansie gaande China Indië Brazilië… wijzen? omarmen! bedreigen zekerheden volledig subjectief zijn: verlies zogezegde “suprematie”; deels druk competitief blijven wereld economisch snel verandert dwingt Hoger verwees flexibiliteit: Economisch argumenten leuk peptalk managementseminars objectieve reden gepercipieerde bedreiging: historische klimaatopwarming uitstoot CO2 afzienbare toekomst geleverd nieuwe industrielanden helemaal bedreiging aller geluk: opwarming aarde Ons aan-rijkdom-gebonden-geluk kwetsbaar onzeker natuur “halt!” roepen ongelijk twijfels wezenlijk verbonden industrialisering steken weer kop Twijfels weldaden Prometheus kent verhaal halfgod stal vuur goden gaf leidde technische beschaving Dit weldaad mensheid uiting overmoed gestraft: 30 000 geketend rots elke dag vreet adelaar lever! vooruitgangsgeloof incarneert overmoedig luidt halve eeuw kracht won val leidmotief inspireren Herbert Marcuse Franse classicus Pierre Hadot Eros and Civilization symbool “zware inspanning productiviteit vooruitgang dankzij onderdrukking” polen ideeëngeschiedenis natuurbeeld voluntaristische technologische houding versus contemplatieve poëtische prometheïsche bevindt oppositie men tracht domineren nutte vijandige vreemde weerstand biedt wil overwinnen orphische daarentegen ervaart verwant esthetisch lyrisch muzisch utilitair instrumenteel aandrang veroveren getemperd besef maat angst hybris evenwicht verloren gegaan hersteld 18 cultuurheld postindustriële relativiteit inziet anders verhoudt natuur? industriële revolutie? straks eerst valt kanttekening eenvoudige tijdens decennia gepaard stijgend rekening stijging levensverwachting besluit komen doorsnee mensenleven gevuld Westerse gestegen stijgen zeg uitdrukkelijk “kan” baseer hier simplistische Gelukswetenschapper Ruut Veenhoven brengt beeld: langer discussiëren Aristotelianen wellicht gruwen (is x% duurt?) Vanuit “capability-“standpunt hogere mag kwalificeren… Laat 6 vrij evidente gezonde levensjaren verwachten 65ste? Terwijl algemene geboorte spectaculair steeg 1870 geval 65 bleef redelijk stabiel 65-jarige 1850 ca leven; 1950 verwachting mannen vrouwen; geprojecteerde verdubbeling 2025 1975 19 Voor begrip: verhoogt “levensgeluk” mechanisch boeiende studies mortaliteit morbiditeit Vlaanderen wijst erop levensstandaard geschreven impuls medisch korps arbeidersbeweging daarin belangrijke rol speelden Opnieuw argument impact enigszins relativeert 20 Wat betekent 65-jarige? materialistisch pensioenkapitaal pensioenrecht bedoel: totale som pensioenen genieten uitkijken zowat 20% liggen 2000 50% 21 is! Vooraleer verontwaardigd buiten jaagt pensioen 50-jarigen béter 75-jarigen ons; statistisch pensioenuitkering “Genieten”? Ervaren vooruitzicht genieten? velen boven associëren met: vereenzaming fragiliteit überhaupt genereus uitbetalen… Eerder bron grotere toelaat derde allerlei plannen projecten omgeving waarin ouder hoe lokale omgeving) omgaat veroudering Ongerustheid onrechte maatschappelijke contract groeiende herziening toe Tot zover hand opnieuw paradoxaal voorleggen keer uitgekomen ontwikkelingen verweven toenemende onzekere “we” spreek mijzelf politieke verantwoordelijken bestuurders Bij bestuurden vergrijzing betaalbaarheid onbehagen: diversiteit migratie globalisering Europa… Vele lezingen dagen neem domineert mee redenering opbouw Individueel risico aanhoudende kwaal niet-samenleving cocktail klaarblijkelijke luide proclameren noodzakelijk afdoende antwoord Sterker naïef opgevatte tegenovergesteld zet uiteen: houdingen oordeel hen enquêtes gesteld is; gang zaken interpretaties Zeker ontevreden neiging negatief beoordelen omgekeerd tendens onderzoek zwak tevreden verdomd slecht groep bijna behoren lopen onderstreept verschil privésfeer publieke sfeer Hannah Arendt 22 linkerzijde gecharmeerd “republikeinse geest” leeft worstelen interpretatiekaders gewicht gewonnen traditionele reactie beklemtonen graag problemen Dorpsstraat Wetstraat (ooit verkiezingscampagne symbolisch gestart Anderlecht) blijf denken belangrijk beleidsmaatregelen stelselmatig vertaalt betekenen Dorpsstraat; gezegde herhalen soelaas indruk intussen conflicten kiezer relevant oplossen Nog perspectief ervaren behaagziek principeloos achterna hollen vermeende individuele soort ontstaan bekommernis “negatieve boodschappen” vermijden kregen advies partijen wervend verhaal” moesten zoeken? “geen aankondigen oplossingen” “geruststellen” negatieve boodschap géén forum noodzakelijke oplossing uitgelegd krijgt ernst probleem maakt… nergens versies finale L’Orfeo bewaard gebleven libretto verspreid voorstelling 1607 mythe Vergilius Ovidius totaal ontredderd nadat Eurydice maal verloor verwerpt verbitterd zweert relatie knopen Bacchanten brassende vrouwelijke volgelingen Dionysus Orpheus’ belofte gehoord beslissen straffen vrouwenhaat stukken hakken Hebrus werpen partituur 1609 gedrukt greep gered neerdalen vader Apollo opstijgt ingreep blijkbaar stand Men intentie uitzingen brokken verscheuren oorspronkelijke “ware” veranderde voorstellingen opdrachtgever Hertog Gonzaga opvoering beval “voor dames stad” reeds plande aanleiding bezoek Carlo Emanuele Savoie toekomstige schoonvader Gonzaga’s zoon Francesco slot toegewijde echtgenoot gereten ultieme offer betreurde geschikt vermaak huwelijksbesprekingen 23 verklaring verwijst aanpassingen gebeuren omwille beperkte speelruimte opvoeringen beklemtoond Fred der Kooij 24luidt librettist werden gevaarlijke ketterij hadden schuldig gemaakt ongewild ineffectiviteit genade beschreven gedachte… modeniteit muziek ingeluid moment (er brandstapels… aanbood moést werken herwerkte hoogsteigen persoon afdalen echte christelijke barmhartigheid absolutie hemelvaart paste breder streven antieke leer gedachtegoed verzoenen interpretatie benadrukt bijzonder logisch aansluit filosofie Neoplatonisme trek Renaissance hofkunst waartoe behoort Hoewel inluidde gedachte ontknoping volgens onmoderne tijdsgeest lotsbestemming vastligt orde onveranderlijk Verder twijfelde doemscenario Monteverdi’s vandaag optimistische inzicht maakbare 25 Nu Moresca opera horen wilde Zo’n strijddans sloegen doden terwijl uitvoerden dadelijk duet Speranza Vitaliteit Hemelvaart bloedbad Moresca? getwijfeld achterom gekeken had! concert “Triomf triomf vieren? indrukwekkend succes falen… zelf moeilijke worstel beweging interpretatiekader aanbieden staan naartoe sociaaldemocratische sta zonder toekomstperspectief Sociaaldemocratie 26 toekomst? Kunnen mobiliseren oplossingen ondubbelzinnig worden? verschiet afwenden onheil? Onderstrepen kwetsbaarheid? verval kansen? eerlijke werkelijkheid durft vragen? verwachtingen hebben? Welke ondersteunen? tegenspreken? creëren? angstwekkende afkomen spoedig drastisch teruggedrongen klimaatrisico’s wachten kleinkinderen ernstig zéggen verminderen kopen prijs betalen 27 Beschouw verzekeringspremie beginnen jammeren energieprijzen zegen (wat aanvaarden elders) uitleggen behoeft voelbaar CO2-intensieve producten publiek wegen rekeningrijden invoeren tegelijkertijd alsof bescheiden Armoede mààkt ongelukkig opkomen inkomens gezinnen koopkracht beschermt gevolgen dergelijke jaarlijkse pensioenbedrag peil maatregelen steeds productiviteitsdruk stress diegenen Elders betoogd pensioenvraagstuk sparen financiële bijdragen Langer betekent: verzekeren pensioenhervorming rekent inzet erbij efficiënt rechtvaardig hervormd pensioenstelsel later zetten significant geef voorbeelden geruststellen daadwerkelijk collectief Wie vragen vicieuze cirkel breken strijdig doekjes winden: duurdere vliegtuigreizen werken: geluksbrengers gezicht “harde” boodschappen sporen aandacht scherper richten immateriële tekorten tijden ruimte hele ondersteuning kwaliteit onderwijs uitbouw zorg organisatie werk Herinner Elchardus: polis collectieve bedreigingen bedwingen is: doelloosheid ingevuld verdraagt leegte bespiegelingen eindigen mix: afstand nemen eenzijdig kortzichtig materialisme vervelende waarheden “ondernemend” Ondernemerschap onthechting: samen? soberheid verwijzing zwanger intellectuele Max Weber geïllustreerd ondernemerschap niet-materialistische ethiek Pleidooien zekere bedachtzaamheid t v verrijking eindeloze vermenigvuldiging Tijd belangrijker cadeaus voorbeeld onverstandig rebel28 ketenen Vindingrijkheid technologie instrumentele rationaliteit hard betere ontroering betovering Overigens “riskant” beetje rebels leefde harmonie weigerde neer leggen elementaire natuurwet: sterfelijkheid schuilt enen verscheidenheid vitale vermoedelijk kleine draai geven: gaven zwakheden ga woordje “end” Engels betekenissen: vermoeide nombreux commentateurs ont interprété l’Orfeo comme triomphe d’autres voient contraire preuve impuissance Quelle était exactement position ? A-t-il voulu exprimer une profession foi l’Homme ou représenter folie arrogance Propose-t-il apologie liberté individuelle montre-t-il l’homme victime des caprices dieux L’oeuvre est-elle porteuse d’une « païenne » reste-t-elle fondamentalement chrétienne Striggio semblent s’abstenir conclure ils laissent les ouvertes invitant apporter réponses garder sens mouvement moderne29 B R Legros Todorov l’art Grasset 2005 p 85 94 gelukkig? Atlas Amsterdam/Antwerpen 168 177 179 concentreer hierbij Layard; prominent wetenschappelijk gespecialiseerd tijdschrift Journal Studies Lage Landen bv TPEdigitaal themanummer paper “Meten Geluk” (TPEdigitaal 2008 jaargang 2(3) pp 10-35) liet 100 woord The World Book Lannoo Tielt 2010 interessant kort kritisch overzicht “gelukswetenschap” “Een geluk?” Raymaekers (ed Visie Universitaire Pers Leuven 2009 101-123 maatstaf (duurzaam) prominente rapport Commissie Stiglitz (Report by Commission on Measurement Social Progress) besteld President Sarkozy 305 alinea geïnspireerd C “Mill between Aristotle & Bentham” Daedalus Spring 2004 60-68 huidige benadering) “Aristotle Politics Human Capabilities: A Response to Antony Arneson Charlesworth Mulgan” Ethics 111 October 102-140 geciteerde 16 136-137 zie Capabilities” 105-106 grondlegger “capability”-approach inspiratie gekoppeld bespreekt beoordelingscriterium positie bevinden Idea Justice Allen Lane 269-290 bestempelt “happiness” “a very important human functioning among others additition its own importance happiness can also be seen have some evidential interest pertinence thus indicative merit being typically related our successes failures life This so though not only thing seek or reason bemerkingen gelukswetenschappers) samengevat hierop neer: “The central issue significance but alleged insignificance everything else which many advocates perspective seem insist streng handhaven rechtvaardigheidsprincipes leidraad anderzijds geluksmetingen Bovenop m i nationale statistieken bestaan” (als wet getallen speelt) aanduiding bevorderen” vrijheden Zie Daarom schrijf “spiegel” vormt zin vaststellingen ex post “gemiddelde tevredenheid” ante put debat recent aantonen (Marc Fleurbaey Koen Decancq What Good Oktober 2010) langdurig onderdrukt benadeeld gevoelen (plezier pijn vreugde haat) cognitief d w z actieve bewuste oefening uitspreken Vervolgens moeilijkheid “tevredenheid” voorkeuren conceptueel methodologisch tekort schieten recente literatuur b artikel gewijd positieve psychologie (Nussbaum “Who warrior? Philosophy poses psychology” Legal 37 June 81-113) revival bekritiseert 276 “Aristotelian Democracy” Bruce Douglass Gerald Mara Henry S Richardson Liberalism New York Routledge 203-252 “fascinating convergence” bepaalde kijken bevorderen Amsterdam Ambo 2006 (een 1986) Verhandeling ontevredenheid Uitgeverij Contact nadruk capita “boven $ (Layard 44) nuanceert “Life getting better Societal evolution fit with nature” Indicators Research 97 105-120; cf nuancering belangrijkste band lineair zijn? Treedt “gewenning” op? binnen rijkere ontstaat basis vergelijking? laatste helpt paradox verklaren verloop tijd (cf gelukkiger? 51 ondersteunt tegen econometrisch G Mayraz Nickel Does Relative Income Matter? Are Critics Right?” CEP Discussion Paper No 918 March 2009) Paul Beer ontwikkelt model statusgoederen (bij inkomen) verklarende factor “Economische ongelijkheid 54-80 inhakend Robert “vergelijking” verklaart inkomensniveau beantwoord groei-dynamiek (de counterfactual stagnerende onderzocht) 17 voorgaande zinnen blz 224-226 tekst Eén bekendste revolutie ontketende geheugen menig economiestudent gegrift (David Landes Unbound Technological change industrial development Western Europe from 1750 present Cambridge University Press 1969 citaten keerzijden 318-320 Londen 1955 Le voile d’Isis; essai l’histoire l’idée Nature Paris Gallimard 2004; vertaald Veil Isis: An Essay History MA Harvard prometheïstische orfische “goed” “slecht” worden: themselves both these attitudes are completely legitimate if discern serious possible deviations within each them However opposed they may moreover do mutually exclude other (The isis 317) zoekt nuance complementariteit (zie interview Groene Amsterdammer 134 nr (28 juli Orpheus) ervaar vorm cultuur- vooruitgangspessimisme overtuigen productief ecologische uitdagingen Afgeronde cijfers gegevens voorspellingen Planbureau bezorgd Allemaal Beestjes Mortaliteit Morbiditeit 18de-20ste Academia 2006; evolutie België voorgebracht Chaire Quetelet 21-23 breed verspreide had Meer bedraagt demografische 57 2% 49 7% 6% % disconteren Hollandse burger Romein Privé-sfeer stemgedrag ROB-lezing Te website Raad Openbaar Bestuur www rob-rfv nl passage inleiding Gerardus Swerts Favola Musica di Claudio gemoderniseerde 2007 24 “L’Orfeo onmacht muziek” gepubliceerd brochure Munt productie 1998 plaatst begin uitdrukking periode techniek personage “spreken” monodie (combinatie solo zangstem instrumentale begeleiding) principe zogenaamde genere rappresentativo theatrale gevoelens rechtstreeks ontdekking voorbereid humanisten geperfectioneerd legde passies emoties 17e 18e kenmerken voegt beschouwing (persoonlijke communicatie): “Toch premodern invloed traditie pastorale drama allegorische intermedio achtergrond zintuiglijke kennis bovenzintuiglijke realiteit landschap functioneert zinnelijke representatie bovenwereldlijke essentie verbond Christendom klassiek Platonisme opstijgen geest goddelijke redding uiteindelijke zozeer deus machina verworven vergankelijk aardse vergankelijke overstijgen totaliteit proces doormaakt zelfoverwinning weliswaar gerepresenteerd leert liefde liefde; verwerven (“hij aanschouwt schoonheid voortaan sterren”) Neoplatoonse visie ancien-régime macht legitimiteit wereldlijke goddelijk machthebber onderdanen vaste relaties geordende kosmos afschaduwing kosmische uitgedrukt slotballet zo’n hoofse past premoderne plaatje: komt deeltje machthebbers gepresenteerd familie) begrijpen stuk raderwerk onmodern Orfeo veraf optiek schitterende uitwerking gewezen bevestiging waarde subject kunstwerk beide werelden spanning (Francis Maes) Bokina (in Opera From Henze Yale 2005) gewenste karaktervorming prins heerser gelouterde kristalliseert neo-platonische aspiraties barokke korte trein sociaaldemocratie (Knack maart frankvandenbroucke be) leg vooruitgangsperspectief vier bepalende vooruitgangsgedachte Kalma Links rechts Wiardi Beckmanstichting/Mets Schilt indrukwekkende synthese inzichten bepalen Nieuw zicht Sociaaldemocratisch kompas 21ste Antwerpen-Apeldoorn Garant “risicoreductie” centrale Stern-rapport latere Nicholas Stern Blueprint safer planet How manage climate create new era progress prosperity Bodley Head London 28 kenner mythologie Jean-Pierre Vernant werpt licht Prometheus: “Prometheus opstandig aard ongezeglijk ongehoorzaam klaar” (Jean-Pierre Spectrum 67 Ex-communist verzetsstrijder omschrijft tv-interview sympathieke “contestatair”; opvoert “onderdrukking” zijn! 29 “La moderne”

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Geluk en politiek: een pleidooi voor helder denken Frank Vandenbroucke (KULeuven Universiteit Antwerpen) Zeggen dat de hoogte van het BBP onze beste maatstaf is even krom geredeneerd als zeggen Bruto Nationaal aldus in reactie op essay Marc De Vos over geluk politiek In reeks Back to Basics plaatst stevige vraagtekens bij wat hij omschrijft “de snelgroeiende geluksagenda” 1 Zijn oproep luidt: “Bevrijd politiek” vroegere publicatie heb ik me kritisch uitgelaten manier waarop geluksagenda door sommige mensen wordt ingevuld Zo meen fout om “zoveel mogelijk zoveel mensen” naar te schuiven doelstelling kijk met enige verbazing terugkeer debat 18de eeuwse utilitarist Jeremy Bentham – goede man die deze stelregel eerst geformuleerd heeft Wat ons persoonlijk leven betreft geloof niet bereikt zonder doel Alhoewel men zijn persoonlijke overtuigingen (zoals overtuiging zeker filosofisch perfectionisme inhoudt) zomaar kan promoveren tot hele samenleving moet delen denk ook iets gelijkaardigs geldt: vervallen ze toch publiek nodig Doelloosheid slechtste individuele maar overkomen Mijn was vitaliteit vraag stelde luidde: “Kunnen we één dezelfde beweging afstand nemen kortzichtig materialisme vervelende waarheden ‘ondernemend’ onder ogen zien?” “We” sloeg daarbij 2 Hier wil concentreren tekst Ik ga vooral sociaaleconomische beleid doen zgn welk economisch onderzoek relevant Twee belangrijke kwesties misschien meest behandel niet: betekent leven? En zouden gevolgen ambitieuze duurzaamheidsagenda economische groei? Het eerste deel mijn lezer ervaren schools: kom meteen bevlogen beschouwingen Omdat cruciaal eender pleit daarvoor dit Dat levert swingende literatuur tweede kortere gedeelte laat analytische los leg enkele politieke meer intuïtief karakter hebben drie stellingen elkaar verweven helderheid best uit halen stelling luidt groei uiting vormt dynamiek méér dan louter dynamiek; samenlevingen of komen toenemende mate problemen ondanks beperkingen objectieve globale vooruitgang alleen preciezer (ze gaat meten vooruitgang) vloeit vanzelfsprekend voort derde overheid andere plaats stellen zich vergist technisch beleidsdispuut omdat onmeetbare probeert haar boekje principieel buiten gaat: zo’n geeft toe aan verleiding paternalistisch à la limite totalitair reserveer oordeel concentreer mij fout; voorbij geleerd 60 jaar theorievorming sinds Arrow’s fameuze onmogelijkheidstheorema 1951 vreemd basale inzichten theoretische economie meeneemt betoog devies back basics staat argumenten aangedragen worden bovendien contradictorisch belangrijk onderdeel zelf onderuit leidt impasse wie opstelt liberal d w z iemand verscheidenheid opvattingen erkent keuzerecht daarin respecteren Laat vooraf preciseren waarom Engelse uitdrukking “liberal” opduikt hier doctrine vrije werking markten slechts minimaal gestoord mag overheidsoptreden; respect prozaïscher voorkeuren correct oordeelsvermogen gebaseerd je bent orde debatten welzijn twee benaderingen tegenover plaatsen: benadering wijze “op meten” Deze zoek meetsysteem beleven; bijvoorbeeld gelijkgesteld hedonistisch vervolgens gemeten; tevredenheid waarmee oordelen hun gemeten… Je daarom omschrijven “subjectieve welzijnsmeting” benadrukt zèlf waarde toekennen toestand waarin bevinden basis eigen overtuigingen; tevredenheid-met-het-leven noodzakelijk doelstellingen levensplan allerbelangrijkste vinden resultaten subjectieve welzijnsmeting vindt eenzijdig zelfs interesseert voorwaarden toelaten opvatting goed realiseren daar overige maximaal vrij in; verwijzen essentiële hulpmiddelen zoals geld vermogen kansen participatie arbeidsmarkt onderwijs keuzevrijheid beginselen rechtsstaat enz… duidelijk maken standpunt veel sympathie Onder schuilt nu verschillend intrinsiek fundamenteel tegenstrijdig: ene sluit naïeve “meten” opgevat “rekenkunde geluk” inderdaad zo; per se zo hoeft economic theory vraagstuk tafel legt alle tijden minder belangrijk: samenleving? Kan vergelijken vaststellen A boekt B? gesteld individu Als posities keuzes houding m b t relatief eenvoudig vanzelfsprekend– bedoel tégen spreken veronderstellen sympathieke vriend verstokte vrijgezel Bob kiezen tussen scenario (40 uur week werken verdienen) B (20 weinig normale omstandigheden gezond verkiest boven mogen er uitgaan “beter” Wie wij keuze “béter af zou zijn” “meer realiseren” “gelukkiger verdienen tijd Veronderstel gisteren kon vandaag na grondige afweging effectief kiest A: beweren achteruitgang boekt; moment geen meemaakt Integendeel “vooruitgang” slaat volgens weloverwogen béter ondubbelzinnig sprake ontkennen erge vorm paternalisme Dit argument knoopt gebruik concept theorie revealed preference heet: voorkeur laten blijken gedrag want zal rationele gericht verhogen belang inspireert wanneer onderzoekers proberen verklaringen volgende bezwaar voeten gooit: “(…) woorden kortstondige gevoelens waar moeten aannemen betwijfelen betrouwbaardere beter verifiëren bron daden? Waarom consumeergedrag verlangen rijkdom anderzijds versie nemen? geluksonderzoekers gelijk beoordelaars vertrouwen onthuld iPhone kopen?” 3 Welzijn (a fortiori geluk) rechtstreeks vatten becijferde metriek onderneming hopeloos gedoemd mislukken wegens bijzonder ervan daadwerkelijk betere uitgangspunt Revealed sociale welzijnsfuncties eenvoud vooreerst rationeel vervuld veronderstelt geïnformeerd relevante alternatieven spontaan evenveel aandacht geven eigenlijk veeleisende hypotheses vaak Nogal recente behavioural economics wijzen richting: bv evident altijd werkelijke reveleert Maar verder zoomen argumentatielijn randvoorwaarden omvangrijke onderzoeksagenda beleidsagenda mee verbonden beschouwing afhangen preferences uitspraken doet sterk punt maakt kaart brengen overigens soort welzijnsfunctie (een ordinale nuttigheidsfunctie) werken: daaruit C D E … Bob’s houdt welzijn” oplevert E… functie “ordinaal” getal plakken ervaart rangschikken natuurlijk tegelijkertijd dergelijk irrationeel voorkomen kunnen uittekenen gangbare individuen beschouwd Of domeinen echt betwistbaar Nu toepasbaar groepen dus Beter gezegd pogingen voorbije ondernomen hanteren algemeen alternatieve scenario’s opleveren waarbij vermeden welzijnsniveau stuiten zeer grote bezwaren rangschikt cijfer plakt (je “meet” cijfer) krijg houvast Kenneth Arrow 1972 Nobelprijs gekregen bewijs geleverd nog sterker is: onmogelijk groep consistente respecteert (wat “respecteren” gepreciseerd axioma’s) informatie bieden 4 Met woorden: welke rangschikkingen alléén Verenigd Bobrijk schema “collectieve preference”; gewoon ontoepasbaar Daarop uitzondering bedenken: bepalen (laat Baas) wel dictatuur liberals gruwen beperkte maatschappelijke bedenken issue Bobrijk: X 40 elk 25 000 euro jaar; Y 20 Z 16 jaar… (Bij overgang verhoogt Inkomen telkens 25% ) énige mogelijke zullen individueel Omwille eensgezindheid betekenen “algemeen impliceert bijzondere geval probleemloos verhoging meebrengt uitspraak Verenigde Helaas keuzeset realiteit X* denkbaar 1% 200 verdient 99% 24 500 groeit 31 3% (ten opzichte Y) beduidend BNP-groei top inkomensverdeling BNI (voor bevolking) 22 5% terwijl steeds bedraagt Welk biedt welzijn”: X*? Op elke afzonderlijk wegdraagt grootst beantwoorden vanuit beperken groot probleem denkt extreem voorbeeld gekozen verschil vergelijkbaar BNP 1975 2006 Frankrijk Staten gemiddelde reële inkomen gezin groeide VS 32 2% 27 Amerikaanse groeiprestatie Franse 17 9% 26 4% draait beoordeling Om vellen algemene geboekt omgekeerd afweegt a v 5 betrokken loutere rangschikking afleiden rekenkunde plakt? Een merkwaardige contradictie weet bewust implicaties beroep gehad band Product Hij vermijdt doordat geweer schouder verandert Sterker heel aanbrengt kritiek beschouwt foute conclusies geluksonderzoek steunen feit kàn beurt degelijk meetbaar neem vier passages waaruit blijkt schrijft n Easterlin Paradox” volgende: “[H]et traceren welvarende landen lange tijdspanne suggereert levensvoldoening stijgen dalen loop carrière Fragmentopnames ander beeld: ogenblik geluksniveaus steevast hoger naarmate inkomensladder opklimt Internationale onderzoeken tonen verschillen gemiddeld nauw verband houden persoon Rijkere gelukkigere inwoners armere volstaan welvaart relatieve prestatie lijst beleidsprioriteiten gelukslui ”6 Even volgt samengevat: ”Een doordacht groeibeleid blijft breedste instrument bevorderen ”7 passage zekerheid herverdeling argumentatie: “De meeste gelukspredikers (…) versteld staan vernemen subjectief afhangt levensstandaard staatszorg groeiende inkomensongelijkheid gepaard gegaan afnemende geluksongelijkheid effect ongelijkheid armen culturele weg pad egalitarisme inkomensherverdeling typisch verdedigd zieltjeswinners welvaartsstaat ”8 vrijheid lezen “Persoonlijke controle sterke voorspellers ”9 schrijven èn betwisten “’geluk’ ‘subjectief welzijn’ voldoende gedefinieerd gemeten betrouwbaar beleidsinstrument maken”10 dingen Ofwel geloven verbanden leggen variabelen langs kant variabele “geluk” al meetbare onthouden daarover (en geciteerd schrappen tekst) springt voortdurend been camoufleert daardoor fundamentele intellectuele impliceert; ben ordenend definiëren vermijden géén enkel verdelingsprobleem stelt voordoet: gaf groeiscenario’s zijn; absurde veronderstelling terugkeren klassieke versies utilitarisme (van Sidgwick e geïnspireerd Bentham) oog hadden som leden (of “nut” “geluk”) onderscheid personen opheft onvervreemdbare eigenheid ontkent John Rawls zowat 50 geleden uiteengezet Voor erkennen individualiteit wezenlijk verdelingskwestie onontkoombaar precies verdelingsproblemen schrijft: “Uiteraard afvragen beschikbaar iedereen vruchten gedeeld lagen maatschappij natuurlijke rijkdommen bedreigt toekomst herverdelende organisatorische bekommernissen aard impact Zij ondergraven nood belangrijkste kracht mensheid ”11 Na nuancerende kanttekeningen maximalisering nooit beleidsdoelstelling geweest ongestoord stelling: “Wij waarderen parameters en/of ”12 Zodra zodra Ongelijkheid normatieve agenda vaststelling ontwijken verdelingsvraagstuk immers twéé vragen: enerzijds ontwikkelen verantwoordelijkheid samenleving;13 voorwerp hoe vergeleken Nog anders herverdelen herverdeelt beide gemakkelijk illustreren model sfeer optimal taxation ooit ontwikkeld 14 hebt participeren productief redenen waarvoor hen verantwoordelijk acht lineaire inkomensbelasting flat tax heffen verschillende herverdelingsinstrumenten financieren: basisuitkering krijgt onafhankelijk hoeveel werkt (waardoor belasting progressieve negatieve wordt) universele “in-work benefit” waardoor loonverschil minder-productieve meer-productieve meerdere mindere gecompenseerd in-work benefit hangt arbeidsinspanning individu: uren eerder (om positie verbeteren) beoordelingen Primo versus inkomen? Secundo besteed mensen? Gegeven welbepaalde (gegeven antwoord vraag) inzet instrumenten (welke mix benefit? benefit?) visie betekenis werktijd niet-werktijd dubbele tenzij beslist niets beslissen verdelingsbeslissing ipso facto Misschien impliciet uitdrukkelijk nagedacht gediscussieerd expliciet democratisch Overheden schaal bepaalt idee onthoudt weegschaal komt non-starter brengt aangevuld overheden ingrijpen organisatie gezondheidszorg onderwijs… willen (zelfs herverdelen) marktfalen ingevolge asymmetrische inefficiënties Elk interventies noodgedwongen opnieuw welzijnsafwegingen onderzoeksprogramma Fleurbaey Maniquet Schokkaert (e Welzijnsbeoordelingen onvermijdelijk welzijnsoordelen hoofde consistent funderen burgers “reveleren” laatste nieuws Let ontslagen plicht onderlijnde moét is); herverdeeld niet-paternalistische leiden ontwikkelt jaren onderzoeksmethode welzijnsbeoordelingen nauwe samenwerking Belgische economisten François (UCL) Erik (KULeuven) 15 methode mede- auteurs vertoont gelijkenis gebeurt kosten-batenanalyse beleidsalternatieven: dimensies uitgedrukt gezondheid kwaliteit omgeving…) “bereidheid betalen” (willingness pay) vastgesteld interpersoonlijk maken; beoefent (dat geluksliteratuur is) onderzoeker bezondigt oordeel; positieve beleidsalternatieven maatschappelijk Arrow-onmogelijkheid overwonnen tegen toepassingen willingness pay vaststelt feitelijk (bijvoorbeeld levensjaar) hoge inkomens groter arme Bij doordachte monetaire maatstaven voortvloeien gewogen ongelijkheid: euro’s miljonair bereid betalen levensjaar doorwegen Aan normatief corrigeren ontsnapt past samen Fouquin Gaulier zodat effectieve vergelijking levenstandaard correctie rekening internationale inkomensstromen werkloosheid grootte huishoudens berekenen “equivalente inkomens”) baseert oordeel: sommeert equivalente weegt factor zekere afkeer uitdrukt gebruikelijk welvaartseconomie Critici ongelijkheidsaversie “paternalistisch oordeel” vormt; “paternalistisch” verliest echter bestaande accepteren sommeren evenzeer paternalistische miskenning steigeren) correcties slaan niet-paternalistisch zin essentie vastgestelde (gereveleerde) mede-auteurs verre verwaarloosbaar gecorreleerd hoofd bevolking (correlatie 96% niveaus) wijzigt omvang ongelijkheid) zichzelf (in landen) beschrijven hand “welvaartspatronen” Angelsaksisch Latijns Noords voorzichtigheid voorbehoud momentopname (het 2004 geval) Angelsaksische gemeen VK Canada Australië Nieuw Zeeland kennen (i) (ii) werkduur (behalve VK) and (iii) lage kost turnover Wanneer kijkt homogeniteit situeren Italië Spanje vertonen berekeningen “Latijns” patroon Ze hoog niveau levensverwachting België Duitsland “Latijnse” opgenomen kleine sluiten “Noords” noemen Noordse omvat Noorwegen Zweden Denemarken IJsland Oostenrijk Nederland rijke egalitaire arbeidsduur Verschillende Europese sterk: omwille Zwitserland Finland arbeidstijd beschreven zwakke punten welvaartsstaten impliciete zeggen: weten allemaal paper argumenteer betrachting adequaat gecorrigeerd noodzakelijke afwegingen beeld Fleurbaey-methode Human Development Index OESO hanteert Better Life Daar arbitraire gewichten toegekend niet-monetaire verwijt “paternalisme” hout snijdt Bovendien methodiek onderschatten rapport How’s prestaties ongelijkheden gevolg gecumuleerde meegenomen; onderschat Anderzijds vind instructief geïnteresseerde burger via website18 componenten aanpassen boeiend speelt arbitrair (nog) overtuigd uiteindelijk succes Niet data-problemen heikele fundamenteler cirkelredenering omzetten inkomens: preferenties reveleren product eisen niét gereveleerde vertrekken Zoals kloof observeerbaar moeilijke inga illustreer aantonen alleszins capita aanvaardbare oplossingen dilemma’s vinden; overblijft wijst Daarom oefeningen intussen Zowel OESO-benadering vormen interessante onderzoeks- gewicht vastgelegd HDI-index OESO) bepaald hypothetische stemprocedure uitspreken (zie Koen Decancq Luc Van Ootegem Elsy Verhofstadt) politics vraagstukken alles overwinnen onzekerheid onbehagen angst samenhangen “Onzekerheid overwinnen” uitdrukking; scheppen perspectief toelaat gaan onzekerheden uitgebannen erom vermijdbare risico’s onvermijdbare Noch noch lukken gedeelde worstelt basisvraag Zeker complexe entiteiten Unie dag hamvraag gezamenlijk optreden kleiner deelt daarop vergt bestemming opportuniteiten waarrond vooruitgangsperspectief We ban knagende Europa Onzekerheid pensioencontract breder welvaartscontract vergrijzende ecologische afkomen keren geconfronteerd zwaartepunt beslissingsmacht verschuift vreemde niet-Europese wereld verwonderlijk Waar naartoe? Hebben handen? meester lot? vragen omgaan volledig geruststellende publieke regel heldere politicus vlag zwaait geloofd werk kort Politiek instaan rechtvaardige herleiden rechtvaardigheid rechten vrijheden; tegenslag solidariteit daarmee samenhangt; wàt worden… dissidente stem Philippe Parijs klinken Leo Bormans’ mooie boek Geluk: “Allemaal nastreven gelukkige maatschappij” 19 geluid? Zelfs (ik genuanceerder ontwikkeling wetenschappelijke i onvoldoende recht doet) schort gelukkig gevoel dé geslaagd Amartya Sen overtuigend: vrouw mensenrechten ontzegt vrouwen: mens is? wijsheid Aristoteles richtsnoer Werkelijk “een leven” menselijke mogelijkheden activiteit doel-stelling perfectionist in: moest standaarden uitmuntendheid vertalen perfectionistisch filosofe Martha Nussbaum garanderen beschikt overeenstemming waardigheid Hoe gebruiken richting ontplooien spoor opbouwen geldt perfectionistische eens geluksgevoel qua nogal milde ten titel strengere sturen gelukswetenschappers terug af? Neen concreet lijken verstandige filosofen antwoordt Christopher Peterson Bormans samenvatten: “andere “Affiliatie” verbondenheid anderen ontwikkelingsmogelijkheden waarover beschikken “Geluk engagement acties bevestigen Zingeving zorgen andersom” Gary T Reker Ook perfect raad materiële “alle neo-Aristotelianen delen” 21 uitermate nieuwe gelukswetenschap ziet Scandinavische beoordelen) toepassing Aristoteliaanse “Aristoteliaanse sociaaldemocratie” noemt waardering rechtvaardigheidsdenkers aantreffen rechtvaardig achten dàt vaststellen… rechtvaardigheid? dun geluk; enge rond bijvoorbeeld? Nadenken kritische spiegel geringschattend Layard flexibiliteit Ondanks erg sta Layard’s onverkorte lezenswaardige bedenkingen innerlijke rust Intuïtief voorstander gezagsvolle arbeidsmarkteconomen ter nadenken Daarbij nuttig beloning statuut aantast 23 opzichtig zwaaien vermoedelijk beseffen kwetsbaar vertrouwde verhoudingen samenhangt? luide proclameren afdoende tegenovergesteld houdingen Elchardus gang zaken levensomstandigheden interpretaties (Interpretaties zoals: “Er gezag meer”; “We achteruit”; “Voor niks; vreemden alles” “Rien ne va plus”…) ontevreden neiging negatief beoordelen samenhang Elchardus’ enquêtes zwak Er tevreden verdomd slecht bijna behoren lopen Mensen privésfeer Hannah Arendt behaagziek principeloos achterna hollen vermeende kiezer soelaas ontstaan bekommernis “negatieve boodschappen” kregen advies partijen wervend verhaal” moesten zoeken? “geen aankondigen oplossingen” “geruststellen” juist boodschap forum oplossing uitgelegd ernst maakt… nergens belichtte BBP-cijfers levenstandaard: speelden prominente rol toeval schijnbare paradoxen langer groeiend besef “tevredenheid” stijging besluit doorsnee mensenleven gevuld Westerse toegenomen blijven zeg “kan” baseer simplistische Gelukswetenschapper Ruut Veenhoven Aristotelianen wellicht (is x% duurt?) Vanuit Sen’s “capability-“standpunt hogere objectief kwalificeren… evidente gezonde levensjaren Becker Philipson Soares aangebracht BBP- groeicijfers decennia stijgende legitiem Stijgende aanzien inhoudt “pensioenkapitaal” (de verwachte pensioen genieten pensionering overlijden) ceteris paribus toenemen mannen leeftijd 65 bedroeg 2010 2020 6 bedragen toename 7 3%) 2030 9 bijkomende 3%); vrouwen beperktere groeipercentages resp 8% vertrekkende ligt mannen) Daaruit besluiten periode koude ongetwijfeld verbazen strijkt haren (we achteruit??) Natuurlijk sociaal ongelijk verdeeld 28 jaarlijkse pensioenbedrag totale pensioenkapitaal beschikking Ervaren vooruitzicht levensduur waarvan genieten? Velen associëren vereenzaming fragiliteit pensioenen betaalbaar blijven… Eerder grotere allerlei plannen projecten ontwikkelen; pensioenrecht gedurende genoten lijkt omgeving ouder omgaat veroudering ongerustheid onrechte contract herziening Waarop robuust zijn? Eigenlijk transitie verhouding aantal 65-plussers actieve 65) Canadese wetenschapper Myles februari eredoctoraat KULeuven gemotiveerd: netto-inkomen gepensioneerden actieven stabiel tijdens demografische transitie; verdelingsvraagstukken zowel binnen 29 min lukt regering Di Rupo neemt vlak maatregelen; vermits lang doorgaat maatregel gevolgd Myles-regel ernstig beklemtoont zegt wenselijke netto- actieven; balans hoeveelheid (onder pensionering) gemiddelden zijn: pensioenleeftijd verschuiven procentueel inlevering winst lager inkomen; hangen statistisch gegeven pakweg ernstige baten Daarrond wetenschappelijk voetnoot 15) pensioendebat betrekken Ten zodanig erkend overheersende “we achteruit gaan” verdeling 30 Elders betoogd vergrijzing teken geplaatst spaarstrategie onderbelicht Uitgedrukt termen uitzicht inzetten “(be)sparen” capaciteit slag licht gehouden reden duurzaam oplopende private schulden uitschuiven onhoudbare klimaatrisico’s gepaard: CO2 prijs termijn energieprijzen zaak (al liggen elders) vliegen duurder rekeningrijden invoeren wegen… “Anders Tegelijkertijd vindingrijkheid wetenschap technologie hard dreiging klimaatcrisis wenden Kunnen “ondernemend” zien? Gaan ondernemerschap onthechting samen? Echt strijdig soberheid bedachtzaamheid verrijking kennis schiet klassiek priori ontwikkelde markteconomie creatief dynamisch optekenen consequent duurzaamheid Toegegeven vraagt ontwikkel oneens begin distilleerde Vos: afzienbare creativiteit Echter wenst doelen formuleren herleid “het groeien” BBP-groei beetje onrechtvaardige metingen feiten dynamische stagnatie staven Bibliografie Social Choice Individual Values Wiley New York Atkinson Anthony Piketty Thomas Saez Emmanuel “Top Incomes the Long Run History” Journal Economic Literature 2011 49:1 3-71 S J Rodrigo “The Quantity Quality Evolution World Inequality” The American Review Vol 95 No1 March 2005 (ed Book Happinness Lannoo Tielt Cantillon Bea “Over wederkerigheid bescheidenheid Enkele ‘voor hoort wat’-discours” Patrick Janssens Bezige Antwerpen pp 133-164 Verhofstadt What if voted on weights multidimensional well-being index? An illustration with Flemish data CSB Working Paper No11/10 November Swert Gilbert pensioenspook EPO Berchem Itinera Institute Discussion 2011/01 Mark Hollandse Romein Privé-sfeer stemgedrag ROB-lezing 2009 www rob-rfv nl “Beyond GDP: Quest for Measure Welfare” 47:4 1029-1075 Guillaume “International Comparisons Living Standards by Equivalent Incomes” Scandinavian Economics 111(3) 597-624 Fleurbeay Michel GDP but how far?” La Lettre du CEPII No 312 June Muller Christophe Luchini Stéphane income fair evaluation health care Good Happiness CORE 2009/17 Voorde Carine « Evaluation des politiques santé : pour une prise compte équitable intérêts populations » Economie et Statistique verschijnen Hooghe “I’m Happy Hope You’re too Examining Different Dynamics Subjective Well-Being View Society” Studies 11 January Richard gelukkig? Atlas Amsterdam/Anwerpen “A new elderly” Esping-Andersen Gosta Gallie Duncan Hemerijck Anton Why need Welfare State Oxford University Press 2002 130-172 “Mill between Aristotle & Bentham” Daedalus Spring 60-68 “Aristotle Politics Capabilities: Response Antony Arneson Charlesworth Mulgan” Ethics 111 October 2000 102-140 “Who happy warrior? Philosophy poses questions psychology” Legal vol 37 2008 81-113 “Aristotelian Democracy” R Bruce Douglass Gerald Mara Henry Richardson Liberalism Routledge 1990 203-252 Planbureau Demografische Vooruitzichten 2010-2060 Brussel December Samuelson Paul Note Pure Theory Consumers’ Behaviour” Economica 5:61-71 1938 Gaer Dirk Luttens Roland “Responsibility sensitive egalitarianism linear taxation” Mathematical social sciences 48 no 151 182 “Preferences Satisfaction: Measuring Well-being Job Policy Evaluation” CESifo 57 4/2011 683-714 “Geen doel” Samenleving Jaargang 18 nr 5-15 Justice an Open Society: Equality Responsibility Incentives Springer Berlin 2001 Puyenbroeck Tom “Activation Burden Working: Instrument Responsibility-Sensitive Egalitarian Government” der Veen L Groot (eds Basic Income Agenda: Objectives Political Changes Amsterdam Strategische Centrum Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck s Kim Lievens “Wederkerigheid: nodig” 19-76 Vandevelde Toon “Een geluk?” Raymaekers Visie Universitaire Pers Leuven 101-123 Oyen Deboosere Lorant Vincent Charafeddine Rana Sociale Academia “Life getting better Societal evolution fit human nature” Indicators Research (2010) 97:105-122 (Special Issue ‘Dynamics happiness across time space’ Hilke Brockman Jan Delhey Voetnoten p omschreef later “revealed preference” noemde Behaviour” ging consumenten consumentengedrag collectieve toegelicht gepubliceerd 12 8 10 13 Over zie (nog meer) bescheidenheid” Zie hoofdstuk eenvoudige samenvatting uitgewerkte kwestie omvattend overzicht welvaartstheoretische co-auteurs bepleiten domein bibliografie betrekking “gelukswetenschap” Maatschappelijke kosten-baten-analyse axioma’s theorema gerespecteerd “onafhankelijkheid irrelevante alternatieven” toestanden Y; betrekt referentietoestand eenheden implicatie gebruikt indifferentiecurven individuen) vast stellen) Fleurbaey- cardinale nut zit: geplakt traditionele welfaristische geluksliteratuur) meting ruwe hypothesen (inzake verdiscontering preferenties) voorligt niet- publicaties factoren CO2-uitstoot uitputting hulpbronnen vaste kapitaalvorming meegenomen Beyond far? CEPII) co terecht bredere dergelijke oefening inzake Duurzaamheid actuele land http://oecdbetterlifeindex org blz 305 huidige vertaling bekritiseert revival scherp geciteerde woord 136-137 Capabilities” 105-106 179 hierover Well- Being generationele levensverwachtingen toekomstige cijfers publiceert Tabel absoluut groeiritme hoger; (na datum berekend cohorten uitstekende Swert’s Pensioenspook analytisch “Strategische beleid”

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Een Belgische blik op het Nederlandse AOW-debat Mensen met zwaar en laagbetaald werk houden zelden vol door te werken tot hun pensioen Zou niet eerlijk zijn als zij eerder kunnen stoppen werken, vooral omdat ze vaak al jonge leeftijd toetraden de arbeidsmarkt? Die discussie wordt alleen in Nederland gevoerd, maar heeft ook gemoederen Belgie flink beziggehouden Frank Vandenbroucke maakt balans op, pleit voor een flexibel stelsel waarschuwt dat erkennen van zware beroepen geen oplossing vormt problemen die ontstaan snelle stijging pensioenleeftijd FRANK VANDENBROUCKE Universiteitshoogleraar aan Universiteit Amsterdam Wat betreft pensioenbeleid lijken Neder­ land elkaars perfecte tegenpolen Zowel inrichting pensioenstelsel, financiering uitkomsten zeer verschillend En om beleidscultuur gaat, we wel andere wereld le­ ven Toch onderliggende maatschappe­ lijke dilemma’s zo Over deze wil ik hier hebben: waarop ingaat De aanleiding is feit nu zowel gediscussieerd over vraag of uitzonderingen verho­ ging nodig mensen beroep Ook gepleit meer flexibiliteit eerste pijler pensioenstelsel Ik concentreer me bijdrage debat AOW-leeftijd; lang lopende hervormingen aanvullende pensioenen laat dus buiten beschouwing Verschillen Eerst wat uitleg verschil tussen gemiddeld gesproken genereus, veel genereuzer dan Financiele armoede komt bij gepensioneerden traditioneel minder ge­ pensioneerden, zeker wanneer je definieert basis relatieve inkomens­ verhoudingen – waarbij ‘arm zijn’ betekent iemand relatief laag inkomen verhouding doorsnee-inkomen haar AOW basispensi- oen echte betekenis woord: hoogte ervan afhankelijk lengte verblijf Nederland, onafhankelijk vroegere verdiensten actieve loopbaan Van oudsher kan gecombineerd word uit arbeid, overige flexibel: kunt vervroegd opvragen Kortom, bestel buurt onvoorwaar­ delijk basisinkomen ouderen Het ver­ schil echt zou zijn, koppeling onderscheid al­ leenstaande anderen strikt individueel, zoals voorstanders ogen hebben Net ‘een­ voudig’, misschien eenvoud creeert- althans toenemende spanning leidt gevoerde beleid gefinancierd omslagstelsel-lopende uitgaven worden gedekt inkomsten dit omslagstelsel aangevuld tweede gebaseerd omvangrijke pensioenfondsen combinatie sterke landse genereus vergelijking vele and ere pensioenstel­ sels Europa In hoofdzaak Er bestaat kapitalisatie, beperkt draagt nog kenmerken ouderwetse Bismarcki­ aanse traditie zich Werknemers, ambtena­ ren zelfstandigen eigen blijft relatie bijgedragen hebt: bandbreedte waarin werknemers bewegen, weliswaar sterk minima (!age) maxima, loop- baan we! rechtstreekse belang­ rijke impact Let wel, ‘loopbaan’ omvat periodes werkloosheid ziekte, pensioenbe­ rekening zekere gelijkgesteld tegenstelling gangbaar is, kon eerste-pijler-pen­ sioen kort slechts beperk­ mate combineren zelfs wettelijke Om evenwicht jaar langer leven omgezet 65 bereikt had Intussen anderd Anderzijds mogelijk eerste-pijler-pensioen vragen, voldoende lange achter rughebt Onze buitengewoon gestu­ deerd overlegd sel beleidsdebat rijk gestoffeerd wetenschappelijke expertise rapporten instellingen SER Daarmee gezegd overleg altijd consensus leidt, regeringen durven weleens drastische beslissingen nemen haaks staan be­ windslieden doen reputatie ‘loodgieters’ alle eer aan: wij kampioen improvisatie kleine stappen Toen vorige minister Pensi­ oenen, Alexander Croo, mij 2013 vroeg commissie leiden langeter­ mijnvisie was absolute primeur rapport Commissie Pensioenhervonning 2020-2040 klaar 2014, regering helaas toch aangezet breed samenhangende hervorming zal Iezers S&D vermoeien saga moeten weten, volgende: onze stelde parameters (zoals ‘normale Iengte loopbaan’) koppelen toekomstige evolutie Ievensverwachting Deze moest volgens ons vast­ gelegd (en ‘automatisch’ en), genuanceerd: elk !anger !even principe verdeeld enerzijds verwachting anderzijds pensioentijd immers wer­ ken; aantal voorwaarden voldaan proportionele levensverwachting, pensi­ oentijd volstaan voerde derge­ automatische geleidelijke in, besliste pen­ sioenleeftijd Iange rug 2025 naar 66 gaan 2030 67 Tegelijkertijd werden leeftijdsgrenzen verschoven eisen betrek­ king ‘een Ioopbaan’ strenger gemaakt Omdat enkel verkiezingsprogramma aangekondigd integendeel- leidde commotie weerstand, name vakorganisaties ge”isoleerde maatregel, zonder enig ingebed bredere pi! vergulden beloofde uitzonderingsrege­ ling debar kreeg bijzonder groot gewicht Daarover straks koos AOW-leeftijd levens­ verstandig, vermijdt opeenvolgende re­ geringen telkens opnieuw sleutelen Maar houdt ‘pensioentijd’ verwachte levensduur daalt, want verhoging Als maat­ schappelijke spelregel moeilijk leggen (waarom aandeel ingevuld ‘pensioen’ verminderen?) Bovendien werd naast extra geYntroduceerd, oog beheersing overheidstekort kortere termijn Dit alles voorspellingen Centraal Plan bureau (CPB) doorgeeft Europese Commissie, volgende Ian­ getermijnprojectie: gaat 68 jaar, 2070 72 6 maanden 1 Tervergelijking: pensioen­ liggen wie 42 (gelijkgestelde inbegre­ pen); mits 63-jarige Ieeftijd mogen opne­ men Nog anders gezegd: binnen 12 Belg 21 begon 63 oud (eerste-pijler-pen­ sioen), terwijl er dezelfde 5 moet wach­ ten ogenblik wijziging na vooruitzicht gesteld verhaal rond maken blijf officiele langetermijnprojecties CPB indient Zij overheidsuitgaven (in essentie AOW) hoger vandaag projec­ teert verklaring voorspelde budgettaire plaatje tus- sen werkenden AOW­ gerechtigden, ondanks groeiende 65-plussers bevolking, projecties staat gepensio­ neerde tegenover (ongeveer) twee werkenden, Dat verandert, wijst erop CPB-projectie aanzienlijke verschuiving sociale veronder­ stelt, hoort belangrijke voetnoot bij: gemiddelde uittreedleeftijd arbeidsmarkt stijgt, AOW-leeft ijd 2 budgettair geruststellende projectie dater tijdens komende decennia stelselmatig groep inactieve AOW: zullen uitkeringen, partner, per­ soonlijk vermogen, aanvullend (weliswaar negatieve actua­ riele correctie) opnemen Projecties van­ zelfsprekend hoogst onzeker beschouw voorspelling, verkenning mogelijke toekomst­ scenario’s maatschappelijke keuzes scher­ per stellen scenario voorligt legt mijn mening maatschappelijk probleem bloot Pensioen vrljheid ben voorstander verhogen pensioenleeftijd-geleidelijk, respect levensduur- denk moeilijkheden onder mat vegen Ten complex rechtvaardigheidsprobleem creeert: capaciteit tevreden professioneel actief blijven ongelijk goede gezondheid, samenhangt opleidingsniveau droevige harde wetmatigheid hangt samen verdient Natuurlijk inzet­ betere arbeidsomstandigheden, opleiding, nieuwe vormen arbeidsorga­ nisatie, autonomie zelfsturing werk- factoren waarvan weten bijdragen willen neemt weg mogelijk­ heden hand typisch hooggeschoolden richt 3 brengt moeilijkheid: synoniem ‘vrijheid’ algemeen uitkijken graag ruimte krijgen levensprojecten toekenning verbonden medische onderzoeken en/of zoeken, geval uittreedregelingen Degenen doorwerken ‘werken’ levensproject grotendeels samenvallen: ty­ pische voorbeelden politici, academici bedrijfsleiders toevallig pleidooien hogere gemakkelijk gehouden worden: vrijheid Op overwegingen Pensioenhervorming voorgesteld reeds eerste-pijler­ verder diepen consistent We schillende voorkeuren inzake oenleeftijd, ruime keuzevrijheid organiseren hoe doer manier financieel houdbaar ervaren fair Ons idee spil hele doorslag­ gevend moment stelden vervroegde pensio­ nering ‘negatieve actuariele correcties’ inge­ voerd zouden Dergelijke correcties bestaan Actuariele cor­ recties zorgen ervoor totale som pensioenuitkeringen overlijden bei’nvloed Bijzonder voorstel Ikgeef concreetvoorbeeld Neem 18de (een weinig geschoold iemand) daarnaast pas toen hij 22 hooggeschoold bijvoorbeeld vanaf enige correctie (zijn 45 jaar) hooggeschoolde krijgt rectie laaggeschool­ den beginnen ‘normale’ 22ste Wie stopt gepe­ naliseerd pleidooi gevolgd: speelt mee mogelijkheid gaan, correc­ ties horen Sterker, bestaande slimme positieve doorwerkt, zogenoemde sioenbonus, afgeschaft besparingsmaatregel begrijpen -je denken prikkels belangrijk vindt resultaat consistente duurzame qua Nochtans stuurt Pensioenen, Daniel Bacquelaine, flexibiliteit, invoeren ‘deeltijdpensioen’ Principieel goed idee, doordacht ro­ buust uitgewerkt momenteel duidelijk, opname zinvolle argument aange­ tegen voorwerknemers erg onderstreept evenwel noodzaak iets beter verstandige vorm geschoolde aanzet systeem Belgie, middelde verwant pleidooi, toegepast context, sommige experts geformu­ leerd kom daar terug ontstaat intussen ave­ rechtse flexibiliteit: inkomens kiezen gemakkelijker lage inkomens, aan­ vullende inze tten 4 slaat impliciet contract betrekking kun volgt samenvatten Bij uniforme pensioenperiode laagopgeleiden korter hoogopgeleiden, waardoor hoogop­ geleiden genieten Daar hoogopgeleiden participeren meerverdienen, via belastingen premies Per saldo daarom uitkering ontvangen tend ens vroeger laagopge­ versterkt AOW-leeftijd, betalen voor- steeds slechter daglicht Je tegenwerpen glo­ bale financiele bekijken hoog- ‘bij­ dragen tot’ ‘krijgen van’ zekerheid (laagopgeleiden treden dear­ beidsmarkt uitkeringen) vaststelling vrijheidsgraden genie­ Zo­ vrijheid, genot gebonden beoordelingen oenstelsel zodoende behept scheve verdeling Pro contra eenflexibeleAOW uitvoerig gedebatteerd wenselijkheid flexibele voeren Nadat herhaalde keren politieke agenda kwam, uitdrukkelijk laten zag zitten brief Tweede Kamer 16 februari 2015 sch reef staatsse­ cretaris Klijnsma Sociale Zaken Werk­ gelegenheid ‘de beperkte voordelen flexibilisering opwegen nadelen’ Verschillende argumenten daarbij aangevoerd intus- onderzoek SEO conclusie vertrekt neden minimum mag liggen; voorwaarde mogelijkheden gehele evenveel AOW-uitkering ontvangen, ongeacht begint Men korting 6,5% vervroeging daarvoor Veronderstel inderdaad bedraagt Onder sociaal uitkomen, maximaal vier maan­ volledig gestopt ken: ligt dan, AOW-gerechtigde actuari­ ele biedt soelaas meeste heeft: ongewenst buitenbaan-effect, diegenen uittreden huidige pensioensysteem opgebouwd derde doet ook­ metname Volgens 83% minimaal komen Bijna 70% drie voegt toe Elf procent pensioen, hooguit flexi­ bele ald us SEO-onderzoek Flexibiliteit zet zoden dijk, integendeel argumentatie kabinet doelgroep helpen, sluit naadloos analyse opiniestuk plette flexibili­ seren, Paul Beer principieel niveau getild: logisch ‘gespaard geld’ aidus echter spaarregeling verzekering uitke­ ring minimumniveau garandeert voorkomen geraken misplaatst hierop actuarieel passen Oat afbreuk karakter basis­ voorziening 7 Met hoog ga makkelijkervervroegd argument, weet daarmee gesloten is: indien ligt, blij­ omvang, mijns inziens kwaliteit basisvoorziening Of minst keer eerst even dis­ cussie waar beriep, destijds aangevochten Adema, Bonenkamp Meijdam 8 Kort samengevat kwam betoog neer aanzetten motiveren meeropbreng­ sten opleveren, maken, zodat haalbare kaart hoorde rand­ voorwaarde: betaald afgevoerd woorden: ingeruild Opgemerkt redene­ Adema et veron­ derstelt laaggeschoolden: tikt sterker hooggeschool­ laaggeschoolden, Pensioenhervor­ ming hadden, daarin anders: laag­ geschoolden (omdat jongere werking treden), zwakker latere treden) voor­ stel beoogde herverde­ laaggeschoolden verteer­ baar eenvoudig implementeren Belgie: behaalde diploma’s, mo­ ment intrede (hoog­ later in) co-auteurs zeggen: herverdeling na­ streven; winnen doordat verhoogt, kan, stevig aanmoedigt redenering empirisch oak overeind aanvul­ lende beschikken, hangende Hier past nag kanttekening piste administratief toepasbaar Nederland: nauwkeurig bij­ ken natuurlijk criticus opwerpen precies leden toekomst: veronderstelt studeren, zichtbare definitieve ‘intrede’ Koppel opleidingsniveau, zeg eigenlijk: ‘Je beetje