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EUROPEAN ECONOMY Economic and Financial Affairs ISSN 2443-8022 (online) Frank Vandenbroucke DISCUSSION PAPER 065 | JULY 2017 Structural Convergence vs Systems Competition: Limits to the Diversity of Labour Market Policies in EMU FELLOWSHIP INITIATIVE “Challenges Integrated Markets” Fellowship Initiative Papers are written by external experts commissioned write research papers retaining complete academic independence contributing discussion on economic policy stimulating debate The views expressed this document therefore solely those author(s) do not necessarily represent official European Commission Authorised for publication Mary Veronica Tovšak Pleterski Director Investment Growth Reforms DG ECFIN’s 2016-2017 “Challenges integrated markets” culminates comes a successful conclusion with fellows’ contributed our Discussion paper series Against background increasing strains integration at both global level has brought together group outstanding scholars re-examine challenges current juncture explore options address these discursive interaction process between fellows services themes have spanned broad area including topics political economy globalisation issues macroeconomic making zero lower interest rate bound market least view deepening LEGAL NOTICE Neither nor any person acting its behalf may be held responsible use which made information contained or errors despite careful preparation checking appear This exists English only can downloaded from https://ec europa eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en Europe Direct is service help you find answers your questions about Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) given free as most calls (though some operators phone boxes hotels charge you) More available http://europa eu Luxembourg: Publications Office KC-BD-17-065-EN-N KC-BD-17-065-EN-C (print) ISBN 978-92-79-64921-9 978-92-79-64922-6 doi:10 2765/38194 2765/465156 © Reproduction authorised provided source acknowledged For reproduction photos other material that under EU copyright permission must sought directly holders Directorate-General versus Competition Monetary Abstract executive summary Does monetary union it impose limits diversity labour policies institutions member states? I argue one should overstretch functionalist arguments matter; problem hand challenge identify common standards rules functionally relevant (taking board combination what wellfunctioning requires) legitimate shared aspirations across states What ‘needed’ ‘imposed’ unification depends fundamental drive project large Already 1990s reform markets was justified advent Employment Strategy emphasised supply-side flexibility: an agenda flexible interwoven investment individual opportunities development ‘enabling’ essay develops broader argument: sustain serves EU’s we need consensus support symmetry stability Therefore collective action ‘protective’ order Enabling protective mutually reinforcing creating resilient social systems With regard deliver wage coordination; cohabiting since excludes totally decentralised uncoordinated bargaining Institutions monitor competitiveness embedded dialogue distributive concerns mainstreamed monitoring Mainstreaming into makes ‘assignment’ national partners complex challenging but such encompassing approach stand better chance achieve legitimacy Simultaneously avoid interfering details argument raises existential question unions employers’ organisations Europe: they commit themselves coordination dual perspective fair distribution? Paper concern entails cluster principles effective stabilisation capacity each state: sufficiently generous unemployment benefits notably shortterm; sufficient coverage rates benefit schemes; no segmentation leaves part force poorly insured against unemployment; proliferation employment relations insurance; activation unemployed individuals; constitution budgetary buffers good times so automatic stabilisers their work bad These become fortiori imperative quid pro quo if Eurozone would equipped reinsurance insurance systems; even without figure Eurozone’s draw comparison vaccination make point In addition competitive goods cross-border mobility turn corollary Next regulation posting minimum regimes transparent predictable universal reinforces case total decentralisation Also legacy Viking judgment Court Justice clarified An upshot carefully distinguish (i) ‘social corollary’ (ii) Single Market; partly overlap also different Moreover exhausted consider logical corollaries Reflection Social Dimension April insufficiently clear JEL Classification: E02 J38 J88 J65 O52 Keywords: movement Acknowledgements: like thank Jonathan Zeitlin Anton Hemerijck Sjoerd Feenstra André Sapir Georg Fischer Jozef Pacolet ECFIN staff criticism comments exchanges previous versions Contact: Professor University Amsterdam; f i g vandenbroucke@uva nl CONTENTS 1 diversity: Bridging 5 2 A heart 3 Fundamentals multiple equilibria: 4 visible hand: Wage 12 possible way forward; mainstreaming 15 Risk reduction risk sharing moral hazard: metaphor 21 Enhancing responsiveness 26 Posting workers adjustment mechanism: proper 29 wider dimension 32 Conclusion: Policy pointers fundamentally 33 REFERENCES 37 LIST OF FIGURES Figure countries 2000-2004 2010-2014 16 Nominal unit costs (adjusted) share Germany Netherlands Spain Italy 19 Effective short-term 25 Net replacement after months Fundamental features beneficial 27 2a Strictness protection dismissals regular contracts 28 2b temporary CONVERGENCE AND DIVERSITY: BRIDGING FUNCTIONALIST ARGUMENTS ASPIRATIONS We cherish welfare states: reflects preferences rooted history culture; allows healthy dose ‘systems competition’ mutual learning On backdrop general focus specific question: agree Union? expression ‘common standards’ precise meaning; discussing objectives outcomes poverty; set constraints inputs generosity wages Common create procedural similarities Thus direct impact They define areas evidence-based analysis past yielded ‘what works’ competition excluded basic consists ten sections section contextualises ‘limits-to-diversity’ preliminary considerations how abstracto; currency second reconnect inspiration founding fathers combine pull directions incompatible sets scene proposals developed Sections coordination: why needed sixth considers consequences risk-reduction risk-sharing scenarios accommodated Section discusses role flexibility next necessary balance freedom principle ‘posting’ workers: efficient well-regulated; suggested Market: different; limited implemented briefly difficulty conclude summarising based return central theme first section: ‘limits social-model diversity’ cannot functionalist; deeply addressed new emphasis (launched 1997) did call harmonisation But aim guidelines convergence markets; orientation thereby ‘flexicurity’ Flexicurity among upshots guarantee aftermath financial crisis functioning gained momentum circles called ‘structural reform’ structural became pivotal concepts Five Presidents’ Report Completing Europe’s See Pochet (2005) Rhodes (2015) moreover intimately linked report: “Sustainable requires come heading reforms’ e reforms geared modernising economies more growth jobs That means product stronger public ” sees condition sine qua non via fiscal euro developing risksharing binding explicit useful quote length: “[A process] achieved agreeing high-level defined legislation sovereignty over strong decision-making established will involve further where lead similarly performance mean finding countryspecific solutions primarily business environment administrations well certain aspects tax (e corporate base) presented proposal Pillar Rights: “20 key rights well-functioning (…) designed compass renewed upward towards working living conditions Europe” fact “primarily conceived applicable all wishing it” signals same idea: limit models Some simply too ‘variety capitalisms’ Finland intrinsically ill-fated project; solution put end Hence there Council (2017b); quotations press release accompanying Among analysing capitalism Scharpf (2016) disintegrated Scharpf’s refer authors whose (in various degrees) congenial ‘varieties capitalism’ paradigm Johnston Hancké Regan Carlin Boltho originally proposed Hall Soskice (2001) Space forbids in-depth literature understanding explained (2012 2014) Hassel (2014) (2014 p 1226) summarises follows: side ‘Coordinated Economies’ ‘northern’ operating export-led built high levels sophisticated vocational training inter-firm operate collaborative intra-firm relationships promote continuous innovation quality control include Belgium Austria Another ‘southern’ described ‘Mixed apart periodic pacts’ difficult coordinate because trade relatively vie another allegiance workforce right negotiate bargains Employer associations sometimes coordinated were less institutionalised than northern counterparts schemes variations sectors Greece Portugal argues vein “two kinds entered removed mechanisms vis-à-vis foreign depreciation gave governments mixed access cheap credit Because rested compensation state used resources compensate losers closer explains lack trust basis: “Understanding [this] helps explain Southern particularly vulnerable exploding debt makers persistently preferred austerity mutualisation compensatory mixed-market undermines effectiveness bail-outs strategies However shows hard indicators ‘compensation’ feature economies; data idea Liberal Economies Coordinated Mixed hand; France displays several while diminished significantly many beginning 1990s; cf below pessimistic version optimistic (or rather ‘voluntarist’) subscribe thesis: interpretation differences states’ static deterministic (see footnote 4) does institutional constitute important obstacles Recently radically thesis been formulated Schelkle (2017) theories international sharing: contrary creates already inconspicuous area: yet potential cooperation offers exploited paradox: diverse larger gains pooling realise politically justice Schelkle’s subtle (note 40) date back long before run-up When launched 1980s people – president Jacques Delors believed had Setting promoting wanted inevitably extent existing regulations turned out partial weaker proponents hoped exercise soul-searching personal note attached it: whether organise degree exercised me lot when able contribute colleagues academia implementation Open Method Coordination (a methodology time seen innovative accommodate whilst pursuing objectives) Have formulate solid doctrine conundrum basis experience gathered years? am defender seems answer limits-to-diversity matter ‘hard science’: provide policy-makers clear-cut unambiguous beyond reasonable doubt obvious reason scientific evidence yield opinion divided predicament remedied forces adopt (sound) eclecticism: think B C carry weight definitive assessment relative strength predict changed ‘Varieties criticized (among others) Crouch Herrigel empirical grounds (the classifications applied simple) meta-theoretical Its functionalism produces “models embodying heavily determined logics path dependencies” precludes existence “functional equivalents” “alternative ways producing similar outcomes” (Crouch 2005 63 65) It develop account system change structuralist negligence actor creativity (Herrigel 2010) Whilst insights helpful highlighting ‘institutional assets’ weaknesses southern 3) path-dependency prevents evolving aims evolution constituting There equivalent “institutional complementarities” preclude emergence (as contend) concluding ‘intrusive’ terms micro-governance heterodox could allowed dominant discourse today found Chalmers Jachtenfuchs Joerges Bronk Jacoby (2013) (1999; 2002) circumstances future safest bet compatible rationales flavor: examines ‘spill-over’ unification; triggered functional needs try assess framed irresistible imperatives Analytically impasse possibility equivalents realm ‘re-combinations’ As (2005 pp 61-68) kind impossible understand change: applying embody “heavily dependences” societies being constituted active human agents identities interests shift power compromises Politically ‘there-is-no-alternative’ discourses counterproductive My original purpose choice Innerarity puts ‘Politics conditional liberty choices midst Politics always context within frameworks EU’ Affirming ‘functional necessity’ dictated earlier decisions precluding alternative weak argument; saying attractive supports Summarising (limiting Union) (possibly incompatible) (given aspirations) words focusses dissociated exhaust sound unrelated reference Commission’s Europe8 MONETARY UNION AT THE HEART PROJECT abstracto: serve ambitions who prepared Treaty Rome convinced prosperous leaving essentially optimistically assumed growing cohesion reached supranational instruments raising standard (which later ‘economic territorial’ policy) organised boost convergence; domestic redistribute fruits progress remaining (2017c) prerogative essence confined security mobile citizens non-discrimination Act 1986 game-changer: internal implied step capital To prevent regression pan-European floor might operational ‘hard’ emerge main exception developments health safety place Dialogue launched; opinions delivered diverge say produced tangible results sure 60 years piecemeal acquis encompasses shifted impressive body anti-discrimination redistributive education remained theory firmly anchored Nevertheless hindsight proven wrong belief until mid-2000s: led advanced signs large-scale dumping absence speak (admittedly exceptions work) seemed contradiction market-driven mid-2000s witness inequality outbreak 2008 divergence us reconsider enlarged union: flourishing ‘welfare ‘union’ formulating happenstance First aspire Member States whatever tradition core modern prosperity sustaining providing volatility incomes helping individuals supporting created varying degrees success periods stress individuals: mitigating income reducing go goals poverty alleviation synonymous served types (progressive taxation benefits) If aspiration Secondly form federal foreseeable instance language Below cost divergences; rely invisible Such exist true federations areas) United Why then Europe? Euro them intrusive sensitive domains (such setting) attachment own country scale migration mechanism owe Wolff never budget redistributes massive depressed Admittedly constellation unchartered territory Can viable light large? believe ‘visible hand’ symmetrical guidance ‘invisible pressures (iii) (some) policy-domains presupposes model inspires referred often asserted exclude protectionist devaluations elaborate upon assertions except affirm ingredient sustainability alongside setting playing field) qualitatively overlap: thrive parcel FUNDAMENTALS MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA: COMBINATION Mainstream drawbacks trade-offs members confronted trade-off Symmetry refers movements output prices Flexibility relates interregional determine country’s so-called asymmetric shock Less necessitates according ‘optimal areas’: single greater required adaptability trade-off: absorbing shocks through transfers reduced Over last few learned traditional textbook description insufficient Design failures inherently unstable fragile abstracto examine went actually during decade conflicting this: fundamentalist distinguished multiple-equilibria widening bond yields witnessed 2010 reflect serious deterioration countries’ fundamentals Saka et al (2010) camp profligacy accounts deficits surpluses diverging discarding special much compelling Many published contends function optimally equilibrium experiencing major observation lends itself devilish effects self-fulfilling dynamics De Grauwe’s fragility hypothesis Advocates deny sensitivity fundamentals: whole story Jones’ illustrates latter type position: Jones divergences root cause hit others; explanation grounded (badly regulated) 13 contrast Carlin’s ‘asymmetric shocks’ behaviour’ domain formation section) former crux 14 read radical (divergences ‘fundamentals’ mayhem adequately macroprudential sphere) emphasises beneficial; her propose take ‘fundamentalist’ ‘multiple-equilibria argument’ acknowledging debatable; constitutes departure policy-making deliberation Both signal design union; combined matters Grauwe neatly two failures: “On booms busts continued occur probably intensified very stripping away lender resort liquidity crises ”15 price crucial imbalance fundamentals) closely failure persistence intensification level) instability fully-fledged Banking (Jones exemplifies position see Schelkle); rehearse here link dimension; granted priority follow (including sphere macro-economic Pant present succinct survey distinguishing ‘fiscal position’ ‘competitiveness (2011) Erik 2014 2016) account; regime reasons; reach varieties ‘co-ordination robust demand economies’ ‘would require ECB insight NEED FOR AN EFFECTIVE VISIBLE HAND: WAGE BARGAINING COORDINATION intensify thus competitiveness? And hand? driver effect threefold: three ‘channels adjustment’: channel real exchange channel) distribution changes trading higher inflation reduces leads deteriorating balance; dampens activity inflationary pressure; classical channel’ relies fully underscores importance completing increase enhance considered stabilise however channels impede counter-balancing twice ‘real Higher booming reduce interest-rates (since nominal stimulate credit-driven consumption investment: boom reinforced Ederer Reschenhofer third ‘income unconventional Different productivity result divergent patterns rising stimulates deteriorate balances counteracts tends destabilise expect theoretical 17 practice stimulated amplified high-growth high-inflation rapidly expanding imports Contrarily lowgrowth low-inflation restricted export caused substantial Obviously pure difference Countries conscious (compared countries) thanks acts preventative industrial provides wage-setting consistent sustainable balance: either speculative Before decreased five) likely restrained private consequently weakened explanatory factor evolutions period add ‘golden rule’ stabilizing profits ‘pattern bargaining’ negotiations taken exposed sector ‘peak coordination’ all-encompassing Within seem split Benelux lower-tier settlements produce increases maintaining 18 Pursuing competitiveness: sheltered manufacturing arrangements preceded banks check; invites imbalances econometric ‘rigid’ centralised best weathered transition 20 Corporatism emerges advantage ironic insistence (I nuanced open-ended conclusions: scope ‘silver bullet’ negative positive maintain count perform worse compared structures resonating length Crouch: powerful defy logic 22 Recent Eurofound centralisation asset 23 Eurofound’s interesting distinction measured costs) (for key) finds characterised associated costs; exceeds sorts company- local-level unaffected positively influenced company moderation strategy medium term improving study suggests favoured wage-bargaining keeping findings suggest company-level 24 395; Traxler Brandl formation; (2012) (2009); 99 aware quantitatively Their “could shed factors shape outcomes: actors informal convictions long-term visions name (Eurofound 2015 Executive Summary 2) caveat viz-à-viz plea bargaining: objective achieving pay average concludes “introducing elements complement higher-level profitable firms great overall aimed aggregate ”25 substitute per se: rule guarantees preventing excessive argued drivers half 2000s recognise Annual Survey recommendation although message remains fairly vague terms; recommendations sense little developments? Watt proposes costs: grow equal sum medium-run plus allowance authority According implementing golden strengthening Macroeconomic envisages ‘grand bargain’ whereby (trade employers decision makers) interactions variety traditions highly implies countries: simultaneously ‘ideal’ template suit histories cultures Second straightforward responsibility wages; notion ‘rule’ expected Thillaye discuss risks Ibidem “Member line practices delivering job creation adjust erosion modest discourage skills distort incentives resource reallocation value added hinder (European 2016 11) starting indicated formula deficit surplus bring be: equals target bank plus/minus correction surplus/deficit points sensible apply (i cuts) cumulative deflation opposed disinflation) Koll dialogue-based Watt’s package Watt’ Stability Pact se Horn Lindner Tober Ireland restrictive obligation SGP At sluggishly prevented one-sided stimulus (Horn 6) difficulties implies; 30 ‘soft guidance’ strengthened 31 Implementing easier simpler tackle deal symmetric Macro- Imbalances Procedure modifying burden) my option diminish cooperative institutions? nutshell boils down following: producers keep losing import incur persistent current-account poor bankruptcy unless accumulating financed flows becomes unsustainable adequate banking accumulation bluntly ‘nice have’ ‘necessary’ accept odds mission following understood motivated ambition pursue POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD: MAINSTREAMING DISTRIBUTIVE CONCERNS IN MONITORING COMPETIVENESS pursued shown Visser illustrated Euro-Plus March 2011 supervisory ‘Six Pack’ governance adopted October Memoranda Understanding troika receiving assistance invariably direction weaken multi-employer units respect autonomy W usual disclaimer applies richness Source: selected Table Note: ranked (5) low (1) distinguishing: issuing (by agreement government these) ceiling maximum/minimum (=5); norms issued association (=4); negotiation (and conflict mediation) procedures lower-level bargainers (=3); examples (=2); none above (=1) Averages calculated ICTWSS database consequence disappeared hardest recession Great Recession sharpened divide smaller cohesive ‘markets policies’ divisive Is course synergy Eurozone? precisely institutionalise sketched ‘delivery’ imposing uniformity inspired Belgian experience; revisit 34 “All euro-area competitiveness-monitoring framework involving assessments definition problems example introduced 1996 preserve regularly reports fix norm round Although amounts non-binding guideline generally respected fail 0 BE IE FI NL SI GR DE ES IT LU FR PT SK EE LV LT legally worked well: kept untouched existed prior behaviour membership exactly copied typically ensure outcome councils recommend Eurosystem Competitiveness (ECC) consisting ECC’s primary task actions fixes significant and/or others fails corrective using MIP Semester change; Wolff’s deviations monitored corrected entrenched explicitly symmetric: addresses entail Two dialogue: assessed Economische Raad voor het Bedrijfsleven/Conseil Central de l’Economie; institution represents game ‘authority’ procedure related 35 operates shadow hierarchy: competiveness benchmark l’Economie June followed up ‘Competitiveness Authorities’ Authorities harmonise borders: “Based State decide exact set-up Authority National continue play follow-up report Recommendation requiring establish Boards boards to: competitors; ii inform information; iii advice field competitiveness; iv Country Specific Recommendations softened initial differs Sapir-Wolff proposal: putting independent moment writing legislating (further) constrains opposition jeopardizing minor controversies) functioned now Despite softer touch Report) criticised ETUC: instantiating attempts squeeze threat fear Committee 36 intractable How progress? strategic clearly embed processes strive ownership non-existent level; diminishing unthinkable reinforce exist? Looking efforts constrain ask: still invested corporatist sort (limited) tolerably well? medium-term credibility indexed indexing indeed debatable well-known pro’s con’s leave Maintaining ‘cost’ negotiators: episodes correct (notably oil prices) actual revised ‘insurance mechanism’ premium negotiators compromise nevertheless run bother level? introduce populism Buti Pichelmann “mainstream distributional designs”37; certainly his list practical combat late Atkinson included start ‘national conversation distribution’:38 Atkinson’s goes (it decline UK Suppose ask eye assignment: differ adjusted constant stances short maintenance complexity “The left interference outside guaranteed situation relation aligning ECB’s neutral fostered awareness giving rise 38 153-154 relevance ‘dual’ red indicates 2% year target); blue green (blue line) (green (more GDP growth); index 100 2002 show (hypothetical) assignment asked increased ECB’s declining complex: crisis; 40 80 120 140 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2012 2013 ULC Real AMECO; defines engage oriented dialogues targets yardstick assessing increase; ‘distributive’ constraint avoidance considerable leeway credible mid-term commitment ‘shadow hierarchy’ deliver) foreseen architecture builds states; reaching obtain ‘moderation’ ‘expansion’ (wage increases) Eurozone-wide Whether authorities bear 39 reluctant perceive encroaching give ‘unrestrained autonomy’ off societal downturns particular everywhere strike tactical mind survival inclusion RISK REDUCTION SHARING MORAL HAZARD: VACCINATION METAPHOR strand focussing Capital Fiscal union’ unions: centralise management opt downright (like Canada Germany) streamline really US insurance) rational reasons enhances resilience idiosyncratic se): externality; properly insures ongoing Nederlandsche Bank Dutch bank) Centraal Planbureau planning office) accelerate Financieel Dagblad remarks precarious demands (FD contains functions TARGET2 Optimal Currency Area theory) interdependencies additional longer housing urban planning) She feedback loops she warns steps generate tensions due hazard “[t]here opportunity sharing” (Schelkle loc 7427 Kindle e-book) ‘vaccination’ recognizes raise stabilizers; progressive schedule (loc 2675) contend (towards stabilizers states) unclear ‘diversity’ performing neighbours comparable vaccination: vaccines archetypal externalities: vaccine protect infectious diseases get purely efficiency subsidise compulsory analogy ‘compulsory vaccination’ subsidisation Prima facie suffices externalities supposed underprovision (our metaphorical vaccine) Since fluctuations salient “costly” 41 “contagion” “vaccination” requirements Which mandatory apply? From prudence requirement: accumulate ability downturn precondition; endogenous smooth Automatic size spending: bill inertia-effect So pension spending act instrument insurance: kicks lose crucially matter) shock’)42 Dolls zoom focusing progressivity issue widely unemployed) programme (short-term) participating Do cover employees groups remain uninsured traditionally stabilising country)?43 Are enough 1930s initiatives action; Simonetta Luigjes 42 (2012b); shock; (2012a) 43 ratio six; systematic Esser inactivity traps? metaphoric camel’s nose: shock-absorber Poor hysteresis resilience… ‘vaccination programme’ preceding drawing premised coincidence subsidised learns optimal associate (granting subsidy high) qualities ‘vaccine’ affordable) device fullyfledged illusion small organised? linking 44 imply fund disburses money affected consortium Centre Studies (CEPS) examined variants Unemployment Benefit Scheme 45 genuine complements underestimated scheme permanent favour redistribution instantiate covering affect meet implement takes ‘reinsurance’ Reinsurance mitigate below); complicated 46 rationale simple: prevention cure solidarity came intergovernmental Solidarity ex ante fabric occurred post Organising repeated ad-hoc burden conditionality easily polarisation electorates Ex expensive Bablevy Oksanen suggestions comprehensive bibliography Strauss http://ec eu/social/main jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=7959 (2017 158 14) instability: swings driven expectations expectation doing severe ‘private mechanisms’ complementary ‘public International prone panics ‘sudden stops’ cushion recent IMF Eurozone: devices: ‘private’ ‘public’ inter-state 47 complementarity hitting American urgent solutions: x postpone discussion: day concurrent formidable socio-economic sufficient: reinforcing) self-evident organising ‘lax’ (re)employment generates obsessed Moral unavoidable you’re want eliminate faintest you’ll reap dismissive minimise deviates historic (national) profile long-lasting don’t High thresholds intervention intervenes (very profile) ‘Experience rating’ beneficiary 48 stringent though essential establishing states’ room somewhat intention state; endeavour considering managed Allard (2015); Furceri D Zdziencicka Experience rating ensures pay-in depending employers: finance companies laid volatile requested contribution provinces regions municipalities look Switzerland detailed implicit politics wide range financing etc 49 Ever 1997 ‘coordination’ Youth Guarantee connected assurance regarding ‘soft’ underpin trigger ambitious bite: Binding commitments differentiation concrete policies: complied elaborated detail homogeneous intrinsic Rights fields allow follows trends 2009) reductions dispersion 50 Figures display Selected Chart compare eight accountable 68-69 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% CY EL MT Source 65 ENHANCING RESPONSIVENESS MARKETS facilitate opening deregulating closed professions tape improve 51 channel; auf dem Brink Enderlein “reforms plant-level react upswings portability recognition” 52 mentioned Areas qualification analysis: nature Ji cycle 53 deliberately ‘eclectic’ 54 capital? container concept: ‘high road’ predominantly organisation ‘low mere deregulation sight Brinke (2017); easy ‘ready’ 100% irrelevant noted equally detrimental discipline qualifies den ‘wage plant level’ paragraph forms reliance non-standard coverage) reconcile well-organised advantages 55 coherent road to) facilitates responses (iv) benefits): intersection four Venn diagram counsel fulfilled agrees ‘degrees freedom’ generosity; limitations delineate Countouris Freedland reconsidered; chapter volume Capacity Stabilisation: Activation ‘adaptability’ quantitative ample adaptable parameters contextualisation 56 OECD Protection Legislation (EPL) (with France) EPL top-down steering (crude) promising Database indicator eprc_v2) cope cyclical Kurzarbeit unemployment’ AUT IRL ept_v1) POSTING WORKERS AS ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM: PROPER REGULATION crossborder discussed elsewhere 57 cornerstone Free (amongst principles) reside discriminate citizenship residing nationality delivery) well-balanced Posting58 controversial widespread feelings disruptive phenomena 58 ‘posted worker’ employee sent employer Posted host temporarily integrate contract recognised Commission; forward Commissioner Thyssen 59 Notwithstanding militate having regime; market: projects employed affiliated fits cushioning worker moves permanently (residing A) maximal posted immediately revenue seeking stylised counterfactual socially economically Imagine construct (say categories low-skilled workers) nondiscrimination application safeguard dumping; sending prevailing B; Limiting implies) allowing unfair full dynamic dumping: ‘non-dumping’ prefer option) unavailable ill-guided valuable home (‘sending’) entitled treatment nationals Press Release (http://europa eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-466_en htm) resistance leading ‘yellow card’ settled Wispelaere persons provision services; hence uphold Sweden resisted wages: no-go subsidiarity Laval Justice61 unsustainable: imposed legal providers positions respective roles nationwide local Denmark reaffirm action: agreements enforced correspond Workers Directive 62 Swedish Danish concept plausible too: Together judgment64 establishment) merely requirement ‘predictability’ provisions Prior attempted settlement largely law deployed techniques (hierarchically superior) vigour ‘restriction’ breach foot defend strict justification proportionality freedoms expressly competence (strikes) legislative vacuum potentially struck express aspect Barnard Baere solve problem; 66 regulatory big argued; gives pause Feenstra’s review 67 Articles TFEU 61 ECJ December un Partneri C-341/05 EU:C:2007:809 Blauberger Union; holds statutory complies transparency predictability emphasized here; (sectoral) commission Ministry Health formally decides 64 Transport Workers’ Federation Finnish Seamen’s (‘Viking Line’) C-438/05 EU:C:2007:772 forthcoming) margin concerning Trade avail derogation “[t]he imposes States’ refusing entrust determining appears Directives partners) attain objectives” Unlike Laval’s conundrum) far resolved appropriate tool ECONOMIC SINGLE MARKET WIDER DEBATE ON SOCIAL DIMENSION 68 parallel announced respond stability-related identified assure initiative obviously stage agenda-setting definitely urgently sketches strengthen dimension: confine countries; EU27 satisfactory lacks analytical clarity Three illustrate ‘overlap’ posting: (moreover interdependent principles); ‘Eurozone’-arguments involved; level-playing (2017b 2017c) playing-field example: se; again playingfield problematic (even feasible dimensions Finally analyses prerequisites guide advocates concur emphasise adds 69 such; neither tied specifically abstract priori subset enhanced variegated CONCLUSION: POLICY POINTERS FUNDAMENTALLY POLITICAL QUESTION mainly flexibility; broader: ‘dual packages’ Rinaldi corollary: overstretching arguments: ‘called for’ expressions ‘need’ ‘necessity’ truly guidance; bothered presence indexation mechanisms); Stabilisation comply: short-term; ‘new’ v (to fight insurance); vi surveillance let (they programme’); re-insurance scenario subsidised) foregoing hands’ correcting adaptation coping shocks) coincide; (following judgment) lingering clarification universality militates markets: coordinating nation union) contributes regulated Unlimited productive imposition blueprint ‘across board’ perceived conceived? ‘a super-state? Resonating presumption dependent Solutions democratic Depression World War liberal democracies “had recurrent capitalist ‘global steering’ avoided interventions micro “a toward dirigiste transactions meso ”70 normally forward-looking: deadly embrace sovereigns exacerbated huge finally amplitude ‘steering’ selective well-identifiable measurable ones listed intrusive; 71 well- 70 42; references systems: notes insight; overly conclusions Finding supported policies; balanced resonate population J Bluedorn F Bornhorst Lessons crisis: minimal In: Cottarelli M Guerguil (eds) Designing Abingdon: Routledge H lists 184 January Institut Berlin Inequality Be Done? Oxford: Oxford Movement Squaring Circle? Cambridge Faculty Law Legal Research No 23/2013 G Towards Achievements Possibilities Current Constitutional Framework Euroforum Beblavy Marconi Maselli ahead CEPS Special 119 Luxembourg … remaking face jurisprudence Journal Public 19:1 109-126 EMU’s Problems: Asymmetric Shocks Behavior? Comparative 55: 387-403 Successful Concertation: Effects Pacts Alternatives British Industrial Relations 50:3 482-501 R Avoiding monocultures Union: recognition uncertainty LEQS 67/2013 K Integration & Populism Addressing Dahrendorf’s Quandary LUISS School Political Economy Brief Exchange Rate Adjustment Wage-Setting Policy: Decade CESifo 59:3 489- 519 Chr End Eurocrats’ Dream Adjusting Cambridge: N (eds ) Resocialising Capitalist Change Recombinant Governance Institutional Entrepreneurs Making Capitalism Fit Society Polity P Managing Fragile Forum (2) 40-45 Sovereign Debt Crisis Y Working Document 422 prerequisite HIVA (KULeuven) November Fuest Peichl Stabilisers Crisis: Economics 96(3-4) 279-294 (2012b) discretionary IZA Labor 1:4 S WIFO www foreurope T Ferrarini Nelson Palme O Sjöberg Benefits Inclusion Pay Statutory Opinion establishment COM(2015) 601 final Mobility EU: Opportunities Chapter II in: Developments Communication Parliament Regions COM(2016) 725 (2017a) Brussels: (2017b) Establishing COM 250 COM(2017) 206 Europe’s Jean- Claude Juncker close Donald Tusk Jeroen Dijsselbloem Mario Draghi Martin Schulz Viking/Laval resolved? Balancing social: bed dreams? Insurance Federal-State Partnership: Relevance Reflections Level 129 May Need Supranational Sharing Mechanism ? 13/198 German (4) 355-371 Varieties West Capitalism: Foundations Advantage missing Transfer Vol 89-101 Adjustments London Science London: LSE ‘Europe Question’ Series Uses Business History Review 84 (Winter 2010): 667–674 Where crisis? Interim stable IMK After Contingence Verfblog at: verfassungsblog de/after-the-eurocrats-dream-the-contingence-of-thehistory/ (2009) Inflation Unions 16(4): 601-622 Incompatibility 318-336 (13) 1771-1800 E Eurozone’s Goldilocks Solution Survival 229-236 21st Conference Europeanists Washington : Markets Matter Success Spectator 51:4 29-39 autonomous Dialogue-based Study Smoothing Redistribution Area: Simple Proposal Dealing Mistrust 5817 Ph Co-ordination Construction Historical Perspective L Magnusson Action Strategies Brussels – Peter Lang 37-82 Imbalance Capitalisms North South Convergence? 1-22 Between Efficacy Experimentation Wallace Pollack Young Policy-Making 7th edition 293-318 Fuertes A-M Kalotychou Fragility: Was Right? 397 it? Bruegel February Costs Non-Disintegration: Case Eurocrats’ Dream: (pp 29-49) solidarity: experiment Learn Intereconomics 142- 148 APPAM Inequalities: Growing Challenge Policymakers Worldwide 13-14 Kouba Sachs Reforming Network July Inter-sectoral heterogeneity performance: cross-national 50:1 73- 98 (1999) actieve welvaartsstaat Een Europees perspectief Den Uyl-lezing Amsterdam december 1999 (2002) Sustainable ‘Open Co-ordination’ Gosta Esping-Andersen (ed New Welfare viii-xxiv Tribune Notre September Reduction Hazard: Vaccination Metaphor May/June Number 154-159 inequalities Vision Summit Consortium ): Redesigning Ways Gütersloh 38-77 multi-tiered studies happened recession? 5:9 Austerity Contributions FEPS 97-118 PAPERS accessed address: eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairspublications_ en?field_eurovoc_taxonomy_target_id_selective=All&field_core_nal_countries_tid_sele ctive=All&field_core_date_published_value[value][year]=All&field_core_tags_tid_i18n=22617 Titles from: eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/index_en htm Alternatively copies ordered “Print-on-demand” offered Bookshop: http://publications eu/bookshop HOW TO OBTAIN PUBLICATIONS publications: • copy: Bookshop (http://publications eu/bookshop); copy posters/maps: Union’s representations (http://ec eu/represent_en htm); delegations non-EU (https://eeas eu/headquarters/headquartershomepage/ area/geo_en); contacting eu/europedirect/index_en calling (freephone anywhere EU) Priced eu/bookshop

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139Post-Print_Disappointing_Poverty_Trends_Vandenbroucke_Vleminckx_2011

Disappointing poverty trends: is the social investment state to blame? An exercise in soul-searching for policy-makers Frank Vandenbroucke University of Antwerp and KU Leuven Belgium Koen Vleminckx Federal Public Service Social Security Post-print-version paper submitted publication Journal European Policy; published in: JESP 2011 Vol 21 (5):450-471 DOI: 10 1177/0958928711418857 Summary Should we explain disappointing outcomes Open Method Co-ordination on Inclusion by methodological weaknesses or substantive contradictions ‘social investment’ paradigm? To clarify underlying concepts first revisit original ‘Lisbon inspiration’ subsequently relate it idea ‘new welfare state’ as proposed literature new risks post-industrial societies We then discuss two explanations trends suggested critical accounts state’: ‘resource competition’ a ‘re-commodification’ do not find these convincing per se conclude that jury still out However policy makers cannot ignore failure employment policies reduce proportion children working-age adults living jobless households EU they should deny reality ‘trilemma activation’ Finally identify conditions may facilitate complementarity inclusion Keywords: inequality Lisbon strategy protection 2 Introduction In March 2000 Council set strategic goal Union next decade Part parcel this objective was modernization model: ‘Investing people developing an active dynamic will be crucial both Europe’s place knowledge economy ensuring emergence does compound existing problems unemployment exclusion poverty’ Thus rhetoric referred quite clearly concept Aspirations were high conclusions spoke ‘the eradication within The Summit only promoted distinct focus attention co-operation; also laid foundations Europe-wide approach policy-making called ‘open co-ordination’ Fighting became one key ambitions process translated common objectives measuring rod specified agreed indicators (Atkinson et al 2002) Expectations ran after Now disappointment prevails Poverty has decreased (Social Protection Committee 2009) This sober assessment merits some among ‘believers’ back Have been naïve about potential open co-ordination even both? past ten years much scholarly work devoted methodology: whether proven effective matter research controversy (Heidenreich Zeitlin 2009; Armstrong 2010; Marlier 2010) Bea Cantillon focuses explanation rather than methodological: transition from old distributive more difficult expected at least part 3 responsible (Cantillon 2011) believe argument leading conclusion needs qualification Yet necessary refocus agenda contribution return initial inspiration dimension Agenda conceived because allows multiple interpretations: are one-sided other interpretations balanced ‘investment strategy’ (i e preventing materializing) ‘protection compensating have materialized) constitute twin complementary pillars second section argue analytically conflated with shift ‘old’ ‘new’ risks: true fact manageable through compensation prevention These conceptual clarifications important view understanding difficulties which points third formulate possible why 1 aptly described Jenson ‘quasi-concept’ (Jenson 2009: 41) Giddens’s chapter his book Third Way (Giddens 1998) often cited canonical reference strategies would come replace traditional Before repeatedly stressed – contra Giddens 4 substitute spending (Vandenbroucke 2002: x) our needed precisely did enhancing opportunities recipe fighting Since automatically lead less interrelated yet processes indicated: Employment Strategy ‘The New Welfare State’ written context Esping-Andersen argued: criticized its unduly selective appropriation [Nordic] democratic First tendency activation conventional income maintenance guarantees regarded optimism but worse counterproductive … [T]he minimization security precondition Second truly sustainable must biased towards preventative (Esping-Andersen 5) ‘preventative policy’ refers child challenges warning certainly holds education large: making vehicle equality opportunity inegalitarian society egalitarian So productive if virtuous circle can created whereby mutually reinforcing words indispensable For reason considered ‘active adequate umbrella term 5 But terminological battle us today highly relevant though Admittedly account personal one1 practice theory With hindsight clear received priority Target-setting unlike left Member States 2004 Kok (Kok 2004) report recommended overriding given growth change direction reflected Mid-term Review (Zeitlin Atkinson 2010: 14–15) many government warranted originally introduced copy paste extent believers variety adherents specific model states might seen Nordic where had traditionally lower Continental Southern Anglo-Saxon models Scandinavian either Portuguese presidency Ferrera Hemerijck Rhodes (2000) emphasized each there interesting examples successful adaptation Hence ‘hybridization’ ‘everybody becoming Scandinavian’ Nonetheless example succeeded combining low levels constituted source 6 three dimensions vast academic (Taylor-Gooby 2004; Armingeon Bonoli 2006; hallmark One distinguish architecture for: new-risk address risks) develop human capital passive cash transfers) service (welfare follow become service-oriented transfer-oriented) All linked changing nature challenge necessarily overlap Unemployment age ill health sickness disability financial burden raising increasingly catered since World War (2006: 5–7) defines follows: (i) reconciling family life; (ii) single parenthood; (iii) having frail relative; (iv) possessing obsolete skills; (v) insufficient coverage Overcoming skill deficits labour markets intrinsically i general training: respect risk’ ‘need coincide entirely Bonoli’s list 7 If considers them separately addressed systems transfers services little oriented benefits instance life pursued extensive parental leave generous investing childcare And reconciliation primarily based sector instrumental successfully socializing par excellence requiring quality alternatively no practical solution families their stay during working hours (Morgan imperative originate ground totally Moreover respond various another postulate priori governments focusing (i–ii) vice versa sure complex multifaceted History teaches problem pressure reform; comprehensive consistent reform responding all aspects hand Governments pursue goals others Or way inconsistent partially self-defeating Policies facilitating combination responsibility paid take once again ‘productive’ terms rates activating unemployed heterogeneous disparate 8 reorientation exemplified Scandinavia related deterministic Reconciling supporting long-term care (for leave) different Furthermore regard Looking closely prominent instruments market rightly asserts witness ‘varieties depending combine re-commodification (Bonoli when examine (supposed) results seem obvious stress impact unique inseparable sub-strategies (and well-defined instruments) never dissociated issue so pace very uneven far removed 2007; Nikolai Jensen 2007) It Our discussion Belgium’s Flemish Community Sweden (see Section below) illustrates importance observation Taylor-Gooby settlement Europe’ makes analogous starting broader perspective he describes search balancing economic justice directions 9 elements strategy: most countries mobility-enhancing distinctive parts effectively 2008) lack space criticism issues discussed below (notably ‘re-commodification explanation’) taken board full demerits paradigm Why trends? number States? Given historical experience relatively Cantillon’s hypothesis sight puzzling According Huber Stephens (2006) incorporated essential decades: already built up reduction programmes risk groups 1980 average national remain stable non-Scandinavian prompted emulate example? As population analysis start hardly despite rising actual implementation higher person ‘paradox additional upward poverty: They mechanisms reinforce adverse consequences stand-still associated intrinsic go resource competition greatest relevance postulates tight budgetary constraints 1990s 2000s moved resources away (social healthcare) redistributive (childcare elderly systems) discourse justification emphasis ‘making pay’ justified thus contributed retrenchment benefit (in nearly included); generated Put forceful fundamentally implied individual citizens’ rapport detrimental effect vulnerable Both ‘downside’ investment/new ‘upside’ creation jobs supposed lift Whether such enhances balance crucially depends type work-poor work-rich individuals who mostly belong (defined here 11 job2) those increase headcount improve (De Beer worst-case scenario increases relative threshold median household risk-programmes mainly cut Assessing prompts questions redistributive? witnessed significant programmes? reader object answer question negative rendered futile case Is Intuitively seems plausible Some typically enhance choice access jobs; obviously reduces value people’s own decision make use contrary distributed citizens entitled limitations hold compulsory real qualifications young acquire socio-economic cultural background 12 successive OECD PISA studies illustrated so-called Matthew effects cherished ‘Matthew effect’ phenomenon widely observed across advanced middle classes tend main beneficiaries moot Castles argues cross-national differences nations large degree function catering (Castles 2008; Goudswaard Caminada bivariate ex post assessing effectiveness versus primary distribution raises considerable inherent endogeneity between incomes argued Myles: ‘To really estimate redistribution need invent counter-factual ‘virgin’ unaffected altogether Myles 641) ‘all told generally albeit transfers’ (p 654) refer factors: aggregate size public expenditures according receiving (Marical judgement total vis-à-vis efficiency Relative euro spent assess look over categories 13 developed Ghysels Van Lancker (Ghysels policy; study budgets taking into parents’ contributions Referring (2011) bound generate stratification women’s roles employed (such flow double-income better educational backgrounds earnings capacity data provided (2010) allow somewhat reading formal Countries highest provision (Denmark Sweden) equal while lowest skewed high-skilled mother against skilled Denmark Norway female weak non-existent largely fulfilled show bulk Flanders allocated exact opposite quintiles twice subsidies addition consider gap low-skilled women 25–64 bracket: EU-15 36 percentage points; 44 compared 27 28 14 guaranteed places rate explains contrasting impacts suggests ultimately quasi-universal combined levels) beat persistence determination Belgian situated area adopted deliberate resolving adequately dependency atypical employment-contracts) Compared programmes’ see Table barely responsive ineffective skills achieve Marx van Vliet inconsistency blame relation difficulty foremost perseverance consistency notably linking That forces envisage fundamental and/or tax reforms constitutes identifiable political Returning 15 point made De (2007) (2009) reaches creates requires clever targeting impossible When comes confronted deep-rooted socio-cultural comparison harder translate any ready-made input system earlier formulating schematically driver vicious operates reproduce larger Within EU-27 remarkable illustrate divergent ‘reproductive’ Figure summarizes 2009 concerning students’ performance (OECD 2010a) heterogeneity students (by means difference 95th 5th percentile ESCS OECD’s Index Economic Cultural Status student’s family) (as measured variance student explained ESCS) appears four above statistically (Germany Hungary Luxembourg) (Finland 16 Italy) Finland ‘egalitarian functions’ (note superior added mean score brackets) 1: Background (PISA Austria (470)Belgium(506)Czech Rep (478)Denmark (495)Finland(536)France (496)Germany(497)Greece (483)Hungary(494)Ireland (496)Italy(486)Luxembourg(472)Netherlands (508)Norway(503)Poland (500)Portugal (489)Slovak (477)Slovenia (483)Spain (481)Sweden (497)UK (494)OECD Average (493)491419242 202 402 602 803 003 203 403 603 80% ( reading) ESCSSocial (difference percentile)Impact averageBackground averageImpact underscored Mean brackets Source: inequality-reproducing features 17 contribute greater advance evaluation how evolved time A shed light decline notable (except Italy Portugal further increased Perhaps interestingly observe able variability learning easily disentangle contextual changes matters appear Germany Poland diminishing hence improved equity same contrasted variation 2010b; 2011; forthcoming) overall coherence ‘capacitating quality’ Although confront deeply entrenched realities hard overcome scientist’s circumspection 18 overtake maker’s voluntarism Sabel 2010 placed perspective) Has period marked downward prima facie place? analyse information Expenditure database 1985–2007 US selected basis availability comparability data: five (Belgium France Luxembourg Netherlands) (Greece Spain) UK On detailed country constructed (‘old 1’) retirement survivor pensions 2’) except 3’) ‘old risks’ (‘new pre-primary (new 4’) finally secondary 5’) compares GDP 2005–7 1985–9 (rows A–H) Contextual added: L–M) 19 driven demographic (or reflect effort invest ‘budgetary effort’ calculated following ratios: • divided older 64 capita; younger ALMP capita row N–Q compare ratios (1985–9=100) indices read country’s willingness disinvest) functions note effort: imply development 20 3’ C) significantly Exceptions particular (though declining generosity undoubtedly story non-retirees under ‘competing claims’ competing claims originated predominantly increasing healthcare (with Netherlands Finland) (which too (row J ‘New 1–5’ 1) dominated Comparison I (the sum pensions) reveals however wrong say crowded category Leaving health: marginally Source periods allowing immediately preceding found A1 Appendix article Closer inspection evolutions sudden (but Koster EMU patterns) 22 Obviously N–Q) tell share demography pension catching spectacularly spectacular Greece Spain AMLP picture mixed diminished (most level observation) Nevertheless fair came spending) figures corroborate (2008) shows affects independently regime Technological consumerism ageing attach healthy well facing future (Hall Jones Murphy Topel 2006) retrenchment? assumption case: assured proper design He contrasts 23 people: lowering reservation wage (an option sociologists qualify ‘re-commodification’) reducing cost job (we latter achieved mobilizing resources) Complementarity assumed Over decades diverse United Kingdom conditional duration replacement (Scruggs 4; 2008 5; started before accepted Minimum wages 1990 (Van Mechelen therefore inevitable downside pessimistic imposes itself principle want types policies: improving essentially incentives move novelty current lies simultaneous application approaches By forcing fail grasp what ’ ‘much toolbox classified [these] binary classifications’ (pp 56–7) further: ‘Most tools 24 characterized peculiar mix principles policy: status) protection; (re)-commodification’ 58) conceptualizes continuum emphasizing (employment early benefits) extreme (retrenchment workfare deregulation) clearest investment-oriented refined instruments: ‘negative’ benefits; ‘positive’ net particularly bottom end distribution; ‘administrative’ offers training counselling strict follow-up individual’s accept offer sanctions follows ‘close monitoring’ ‘Making fixed formulated documents explicit positive Increasing entails short run scarce trade-off measures close monitoring Monitoring 25 easy undertaking Such intrusive: continuous interference daily lives frequently repeated personalized assessments ‘willingness truth dilemma How pay without scarce? readiness monitor trajectories strictly continuously impose administrative applied moderately predominant instrument Whichever struck inevitably aforementioned trilemma situation simultaneously entail wish pursue: poor; excessively intrusive cumbersome; order cuts realm denied thereby times austerity balanced) long structural reduced available invested 26 low-paid promise promoters deal link Atkinson’s analysis: mobilize mitigated targeted Conclusion: stability signals reinforced failure? Policy-makers seriously debate indictment allegations shifted allegation unconvincing substantial lay refuted old-age component pressures field segment outcome decrease preconditions Otherwise turn intergenerational circles disadvantage emancipation egalitarian: exacerbate inequalities genuinely empowering ambition creating presupposes sufficiently ambitious stresses Where potentially (growth inclusion) unified 4) mentioned childcare: reforming play role corroborated ones: organization workplace ‘life-long learning’ (Lundvall Lorenz Reforming Intelligent Kenworthy thoughtfully convincingly (Kenworthy Labour politically hurdle Fourth although ‘crowded out’ last cheap savings Simultaneously implementing fully-fledged require erosion base wake crisis 2008–2010 dangerous threat Believers convince opinion discipline destroy perspective: revenues necessity destroying (Liddle contained retain leeway youth: longer markets) 29 Fifth scarcity paramount selectivity areas convinced spending’ blind prone generating sub-question discussing hypothesis’ subject systematic testing’ adjustments methodology launched known (OMC) Many shortcomings OMC listed weakness bite now 2020 introducing Europeans million headline targets (Council Conclusions June Commission communication ‘European Platform Poverty’ unclear undecided fight success lost purpose ending quantitative insight thematic substance Presidency Frazer proposals governance concludes ‘feeding in’ expectation 30 interact Growth Jobs disappointingly corresponds condition Indeed frustration unable drive home message ambiguous allowed inclusive prevented regional partners buying bits pieces gestalt fortiori pushed better; continue friend enemy friendship well-conceived flourish community try Acknowledgements grateful Dirk Vandamme Olaf team Kim Lievens Lane Gøsta Anton Bruno Palier Jonathan Roger Liddle Kathleen Brempt Stijn Billet Antonia Carparelli W Klerck anonymous referee participants seminar organized Herman Deleeck Centre Policy helpful comments 31 References K G (eds) Politics Post-Industrial Adapting Post-war Risks London York: Routledge Governing Inclusion: Europeanization Coordination Oxford: Oxford Press B EU: Decade Macerata Lectures May Macerata: Universita degli Studi di E Nolan (2002) Indicators politics policies’ Boloni States: 3–26 ) ‘Postindustrialization State Adaptation Advanced Industrial Democracies’ Comparative Political Studies 40 (5): 495–520 ‘Varieties Investment Market Policy’ N Morel Palme What Future Investment? 55–66) Stockholm: Institute Futures Research Report O Patterns There Convergence? Onderzoeksmemorandum 06 Leiden: Universiteit Leiden paradox state: era’ 32 F ‘What Do: Disaggregated Approach’ 38 (1): 45–62 P ‘Why Work Not Panacea: Decomposition Analysis Countries’ (4): 375–88 ‘Economic Inequality Salverda T M Smeeding Handbook 639–64) Gallie D Need Europe: Recasting Economy Oeiras: Celta Editora H Nicaise Roadmap Europe Antwerpen/Apeldoorn: Garant Unequal Benefits Family Activation: Distribution Families Young Children’ Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid (CSB) Working Paper (available http://webhost ua ac be/csb) (1998) Way: Renewal Democracy Cambridge: Polity Redistributive Effect Private Programs: Cross-country Empirical Analysis’ International 63 1): 1–19 Hall R C Value Life Rise Health Spending’ Quarterly Economics 112: 39–72 33 Heidenreich Changing Regimes: Influence National Reforms London: ‘Combating 143–68) ‘Worlds Services Transfers’ (2): 151–62 ‘Redesigning Citizenship Regimes Neoliberalism: Moving Towards Investment’ 27–44) L Equality ‘Social Crisis: Choices Britain Implications Union’ 165–76) Lundvall ‘On Role Learning Economy: Perspective’ 79–98) 34 Marical Mira d’Ercole Vaalavuo Verbist ‘Publicly Provided Households’ Resources’ (1) Natali Dam 2020: More EU? Brussels: Peter Lang SA ‘Belgium: Quest Sustainability Legitimacy Out “Welfare Without Work”’ Schubert S Hegelich U Bazant Systems Moreira Activation Dilemma: Fairness Effectiveness Income Schemes Bristol: Morgan ‘Child Care Model: Conditions Reform’ 45–54) Longevity’ 114: 871–904 ‘Towards World’ 99–115) Organisation Co-operation Development (OECD) (2010a) Results: Background: Equity Opportunities Outcomes (Volume 2) Paris: 35 (2010b) Trends: Changes Student Performance Focus N°2: Improving performance: Leading Bottom (forthcoming) Strong Performers Successful Reformers Education: Lessons Saxenian Miettinen Kristensen Hautamäki ‘Individualized Provision State: Special Education Finland’ Prepared Sitra Helsinki Scruggs Rights Inequality’ Anderson Baramendi Representation Russell Sage Foundation Progress Contribution Evaluation Dimension DG Affairs Equal (ed (2004) Welfare: Transformation Settlement Societies 3–24 ‘Foreword’ viii–xxiv) Strategische keuzes het sociale beleid ‘Who Benefits? Childcare Flanders’ ‘Money’s Even Tighter Mention: Decline 8th ESPAnet conference Global Consequences Responses’ Budapest 2–4 September ‘Divergence Convergence: Policies’ Integration (3 May): 269–90 Ferry ‘Europeanisation Active Politics12 (2) Stronger Governance Architecture Coordination’ 253–73) Notes Minster 1999–2003 During half 2001 presided Ministers conform Beer’s define expression ‘work-rich’ (2011 issue) ‘job-rich households’ work-intensity EUROSTAT equals providing ‘dilemma minimum schemes right exception recipients’ freedom choose activities besides employment) falsify sketch moreover generalize limited cases TABLES 37 expenditure variables Statistics Detailed Data (Database) currency millions covering Different aggregated: ‘Old 1’: 2’: ‘retirement pensions’ age’ (including ‘early retirement’) ‘survivor’ (cash) 3’: ‘other incapacity-related excluding 2’ housing ‘parental leave’ maternity ‘elderly Care’ residential home-help ‘childcare’ day-care 4’: administration job-rotation job-sharing supported rehabilitation direct 5’: include OECD: ‘housing’ ‘family in-kind’ ‘capacity sources used: GDP: Expenditure: Reference series Database (Expenditure Nature Resource) Population Data: (Historical Data) (15–64): Factbook civilian force: Force (1000s): Annual Survey (ALFS Tables) 4’ (ALMP) estimations (1985) (1985–9) 5’ (Primary Secondary Education) (1985–93) (1985–94) (1985–93; 1997–8) (1991–3; 1997–2000) (1985–6; 1992–3) authors: Row A–K: (average period) L–M: N: (old aged >64 GDP/capita O: 3) <5 P: Q: 5–19 39 Spending « » 1985–1989 1990–1994 1995–1999 2000–2004 2005–2007 BELGIUM 1’ Healthcare 76 49 92 Retirement Pensions 50 00 93 Other 91 46 82 98 Parental Leave 0 07 Elderly 01 Child-care 45 96 09 Prim & Sec 51 57 08 Total 90 75 ‘Old’ ‘New’ 69 79 Rate 52 86 55 70 60 02 61 71 56 05 (‘Old / 65+)/(GDP/CAP) 65 62 53 (‘New <5)/(GDP/CAP) 4’/ UN)/(GDP/CAP) Q 5’/ 5–19)/(GDP/CAP) DENMARK 99 78 58 74 88 77 97 41 54 95 87 84 (*) 66 47 04 59 72 81 73 80 68 Estimations FINLAND 43 67 89 FRANCE 94 Educ 48 42 GERMANY 83 GREECE 85 ITALY 03 LUXEMBOURG NETHERLANDS PORTUGAL SPAIN SWEDEN

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Social justice and open coordination in Europe. Reflections on Dreze’s Tinber… Frank Vandenbroucke De Economist; Mar 2002; 150, l; ABI/INFORM Research pg. 83 DE ECONOMIST NO. 1, 2002 NOTES AND COMMUNICATIONS SOCIAL JUSTICE OPEN COORDINATION IN EUROPE. REFLECTIONS ON DREZE’S TINBERGEN LECTURE Summary In his Tinbergen lecture Jacques Dreze broaches two interesting themes. He argues, firstly, that we have failed to develop an efficient instrument for income insurance behalf of potentially low­ skilled workers; wage subsidies are such instrument. Secondly, he argues labour market inte­ gration economic union like the EU entails externalities, resulting underprovision insur­ ance; or matching grants could overcome second inefficiency. I largely share policy paradigm. Yet, believe enhancing social European Union requires, at this stage cooperation, a different methodology coordination, which has recently been coined ‘open coordination.’ will my argument favour coordination’ with refer­ ence themes discusses. 1 FIRST-BEST, SECOND-BEST THIRD-BEST WORLDS is right construing problem security 21st century as problem, where moral hazard considerations prevent us from choos­ ing first-best solution. Note that, context, ‘insuring’ given broader interpretation than usual. For myself, veil ignorance quite thick: it includes not only uncertainty specific contingencies illness premature death, but also ex ante about our abilities per­ sonal characteristics, decisive success society. So same, Rawlsian Moral one well-known problems world, econo­ mists solve by looking ‘second-best solutions.’ However, when comes cooperation second-best world might qualify ’third-best.’ Different views implementation – how run system coexist Europe today. Behind every member state lies distinct history. Each ac­ tually embodies welfare sui generis, nearly wants keep way. Thus, functions inform govern- Economist 83-94, 2002. 84 ments’ policies may be very different. Still national states face highly similar challenges. third-best design mechanism grants, proposed Dreze, cannot reduced mere calculus. It result political negotiation decision­ making process. use expression ’third-best’ since apart compro­ mise between commonly shared objectives individual incentives (this usual subject analysis) additional preceding com­ promise necessary level: need process establish common understanding relevant objectives, both level. opinion, importance so-called method coordination,’ first used March 2000 Lisbon Summit, should seen against background. Before turn relevance I’ll briefly comment idea subsidies, illustrate point. 2 THE NORMATIVE RATIONALE FOR WAGE SUBSIDIES much support case subsidies. My just aca­ demic, some measures implemented Belgian government illustrate. Now, choice particular makes alternative instruments instance, minimum wages cum unemployment benefits versus ’technical’ one; presupposes implicit explicit normative stance, is, conception distributive well-being. Therefore, useful assess examining conceptions well-being underpinning their use, without reference created tax benefit systems economies beset involuntary unemployment. Elsewhere presented model admits systematic discussion rationale behind instruments, mutually exclusive: negative taxation, creating unconditional basic income, hand other hand. The egalitarian aims worst-off citizens well off possible (maximin). Individual ‘productive talents,’ they held responsible. levels reward asso­ ciated productive talents; those est productivity. preferences ’time non­ activity’ hand, or, words, propensity work formal (below, summarize ‘individual preferences’). integrates opposite F. (2001), Justice Open Society. Equality, Re­ ponsibility, Incentives, Springer Verlag, Berlin, chapter 3. 85 personal responsibility one’s whole range person’s into single framework. hinge upon question whether responsible preferences. entail ‘metric’ citi­ zens’ government, relative weights attached non-market ‘income’ government’s metric One say reflect ‘burden working time.’ more considers ‘working time’ burden its citizens, higher value activity.’ assume taxes constant rate t (with t’.’S I). To scheme added possibility sub­ sidises individuals uniform way (i.e. independently earned income). That allow must, next taxes, all pay same receive benefit. Denoting fixed amount transfer B, follows complete studied here can take form tax, thus universal (in casu B > 0). subsidy, subsidy s proportional time spent paid work. hence boils down dif­ ferent vectors (t, s), function s. Given charac­ teristics population, then construct figure repro­ duced below. This displays ‘optimal track,’ i.e. locus combining optimal values preferences, model, responsibiliy captured ‘policy stance’ variable a. (I reproduced situ­ ation population characteristics maximin full equal­ ity a.)2 horizontal axis Figure earned-income t, vertical bold line track these instruments: each point a0 (lowest a) (highest combination rates rates. maximises position depending (a) responsi­ bility (b) well-be­ ing. conditions under yields equality described Vanden­ broucke (2001). 86 well-being, does hold people lower a, except limiting cases. following conclusions: (i) Other things being equal, propose sidy (ii) level responsibility, increases counts less people’s starting heavy burden, giving weight measurement At end track, thinks all. measuring maximising citizen’s amounts income. again increase well-being; An 87 becomes important govern­ ment’s yet ex­ clusive attaches ba­ sic be). Finally, points irreducible conflict level, searching policy; decrease (until meets upper limit) parameter rises. hope summary presentation suffices point: depends complex set conceptions; respect, generis. so, even restrict analysis ‘maximin’ governments, manipulate nega­ tive clearing market. real obviously differentiated. implicitly assumes governance differentiation, proposes mechanism, counter caused mobility. Such mecha­ nism requires regulation (‘hard law’) monality (or, ‘social functions,’ economist’s jargon), lacking therefore think engage based ‘soft law’ rather ‘hard law,’ create understanding. 3 METHOD OF AS A LEARNING PROCESS was 2000, although example already 1997 field employment ‘Luxembourg Process.’ pro­ cess explicit, clear agreed defined, after peer review enables examine learn best practices respects local diversity, flexible, simultaneously ensure progress sphere. Commonly indicators help find out stand. exchange information institutionalising mimicking,’ least certain extent. Intelligent mimicking needs actively managed put words Anton Hemerijck Jelle Visser ‘contextualized.’ Well thought­ ‘benchmarking’ three elements: A. J. Learning Mimicking: How Welfare States form, mimeo. 88 first, gathering results; second, evaluation light defined objectives; third, context pursued in. latter important, because otherwise benchmarking would soon ‘compulsive’ flavour actors who themselves completely lo­ cal situation. damage credibility consequently chance exercise. contextual element coordination. Mem­ ber states, regions civil society make vital contributions for­ mulation standards. On still decide (and quickly) want changes own acquired information. These (sub-) ad­ aptations tum basis round learning process, Commission organises means monitoring, reviews. renewed architecture directed ‘from top,’ made through intensive interaction states. Moreover, exercise systematically repeated, facilitates towards medium term si­ multaneously leaves scope development ‘at speeds.’ Vis-a-vis sceptics, stress applied turned substantive so happens guidelines constitute ‘wage subsidies,’ developed Dreze. what extent effectively encouraged imple­ ment various types whole, certainly had impact policies. 4 DEFENSIVE INSTRUMENT ‘open’ pragmatic approach lead progress, precisely pragmatic. found implies credible mitment Until recently, effective anything obvious field, contrary monetary coopera­ tion. So, send message citizen. We signal establishing countervailing power dumping.’ formulation agenda fact ‘defensive weapon’ retrenchment unification. With regard fear dumping,’ there nuances though. First all, unification many Today, adjustment be- 89 cause traditional fields protection, pensions health care, require resources new risks emerged. far history teach necessarily leads retrenchment. exemplified actual reactions Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, etc. countries, mar­ ket led agreements partners rethinking states.4 Nevertheless, nai”ve extrapolate historical experience. grow­ factor mobility within leave bigger mark long run. Besides, short term, eve expansion Union. develop­ ments, definition so­ cial now greater ever.5 brings me consider principal 5 IS MORE THAN TOOL What kind possibly future protection Europe? goes beyond learn­ contribution ‘race bottom’ Eu­ rope. Defining ‘useful’ view intended Member Common essential, be­ translate discussed often unspecified batriers retrenchment, seems broad societal consensus safe­ guarding per se. (Cf. exainple T. Boeri, Bi:irsch-Supan Guido Tabellini ‘Would you Like Shrink Wel­ fare State? Survey Citizens,’ Economic Policy, 32). ‘Income Redistribution Labour Market’ (American Review, 81, 1991), David Wildasin pointed internalisation fiscal external effects arise fed­ eration decentralised redistributive pursued. increased fac­ tor mobility, stated ‘it interest devising mechanisms EEC (or perhaps means) activities order internalise externalities.’ expansion, plausible airange direct mutual compensation. (Wildasin gives Geiman unification). theory, bears close resemblance Coase theorem, including notice compensation effects. Contrary plainest principle ‘right ownership’ play role final outcome negotiations (see e.g. E.J. Mishan (1981), Introduction Normative Analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford). If were apply issue stake, imply ‘straightforward confilmation model’ point, and, consequently, accession, compared situation ‘heritance.’ 90 ‘European entrenched ropean cooperation. time, thanks vague values, interpreted precise definitions. Echoing Hemerijck, cognitive tool.6 ‘cognitive’ tool, allows other. restricted practice underlying opinions state. ‘normative’ tool because, substantively, start conviction no citizen must left fend himselve difficult circumstances. pressurised belief practical gradually creates know ‘soft’ character scepticism. Yet co-operation consensus-building go solemn declarations Summits. stage, most promising give concrete shape Europe,’ large region sustainable thrive. am con­ vinced fulfil (hitherto maybe underrated) ambi­ tion, if judicious 6 FIVE KEY PRINCIPLES JUDICIOUS USE During last years, has, along others, advo­ cated dimension politics method. up inclu­ sion, wish pensions. underline recipe whichever issue. Our inclusion differs Luxembourg methodological proposals re­ gard somewhat different: fairly ‘light’ report four years include policy, yearly update en­ able integrate conclusions pension Broad Eco­ nomic Policy Guidelines, drawn year. (In defines ‘no1mative’ dimen­ sions ‘The Self-transfo1mation Model(s)’ G. Esping-Andersen et al. (to published, 2001), New Architecture Europe, Report submitted Presi­ dency 91 report, recommendations states). cookbook contains recipes, lighter heavier ones. judiciously, five key principles kept mind: Firstly, amongst others. magic formula issues. fly wing reach another wing, namely legisla­ refer to, reform 1408/71, guarantees rights move EU. simplification enlargement meet claimants im­ portant part defining commended freedom movement. contribute offsetting protection. Let empha­ size opposition approaches contrary, serve heuristic device discover tensions weaknesses legal focus specifically mix policy. Mixing elements spirit subsidiarity interwoven But reason why insist this. achieve something undeniably think­ ahead significant. aware trivial undertone, sometimes tends forgotten. debate dominated elabo­ comparative analyses pay-as you-as funded systems. analy­ ses tackle instance efficiency macro-economic demographic hypotheses. True, question. sure though get bogged instruments. When coordina­ really eye objectives. 7 respect third ‘comprehensiveness’: analysis, parisons Income redistribution achieved ideas challenge address Royal Netherlands Association, Sustainable Cooperation, Am­ sterdam, 12 October, 2001; available www.vandenbroucke.fgov.be 92 wages, benefits, … comprehensive impor­ tance Principle number concerns ‘benchmarks’ practice: define standards, realistic ambitious time. definitely process: feasible ‘standards excellence’ instead quired standards mediocrity. do not, presenting empty box. fifth application situated measure exclusion poverty comparable quantifiable indicators. reason, finalising top priority Presidency EU, po­ litical agreement 8 pensions, presidency prepares launching agenda.) litmus test readiness Any­ lip service method, action let insist, response interventions, purpose establishment naming shaming ‘rank tournament’ exclusively improving overall record through, things, identification shar­ practices. Indicators vehicle any pecking among Europe’s nations, preserve rejuvenate hallmark citizens. CONCLUSION Without considering formula, convinced extremely enhance deal well-considered intelligently man­ aged defensive tool. handle co­ ordination creative concretely rope’ firmly anchor expert group cmrently finishing proposal. excellent indicators, Atkinson, B. Cantillon, E. Marlier, Nolan, Inclusion Union, Oxford, (forthcoming). 93 good. identify justice. objective. path due speed. \Tandenbroucke* * Professor KULeuven (comparative policy), Minister Affairs Pensions, Government. thank Tom Van Puyenbroeck comments criticism. 94 POSTSCRIPTUM communication ‘Social Coordination pub­ lished elsewhere issue, suggests that: superiority over justice; advocacy commonality objective (welfare functions) plead ‘not guilty’ counts. (i), refers 2001 book, ap­ plies comparison agree judgement in­ strument subsidises whereas leisure bluntly. distinction comparison, conditioned willingness accept (at unskilled workers). ways protecting worker either claim instrument, prior op­ tion provide workers. Efficiency invoke Regarding (ii), recognises idiosyncratic distribution aggregate tween mobile immobile represented ‘welfare functions’ special restrictions imposed. show define, implement, allocation production risk-sharing while addition entailing gains Nothing Pareto invoked. Of course, realism assumption well-defined representable function. Po­ decisions ‘cannot calculus.’ remark applies noted broucke. Method needed levels. comforted careful thinking ‘some subsidies.’ May complementarity evidenced respective lec­ tures tomorrow adoption well! H.

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Peut-on enfin commencer le débat sur la réforme des pensions ? Carte Blanche dans L’Echo 29 juin 2017 p 9 Frank Vandenbroucke Professeur à l’Université d’Amsterdam Comment en arriver un bon système de pension Il y a trois ans une commission proposé rapport consensuel Le point départ était que les partenaires sociaux et autorités fixent leur ambition long terme pour qualité contrat social devrait garantir entre moyenne revenus professionnels moyens actifs soit durablement ce qui n’est hélas pas assuré aujourd’hui Ensuite stipulerait mécanismes d’adaptation propres réaliser cette En outre différences fonctionnaires salariés indépendants l’on ne peut plus justifier maintenant (comme fait prend compte années d’étude) doivent disparaître Voilà quelques mots message 2014 gouvernement a-t-il mis tel route? Non Certes pris mesures sont très vraisemblablement nécessaires relèvement l’âge légal 2025 2030 est exemple Qui s’obstine s’y opposer tort Toutefois il s’agit avant tout d’un effet d’annonce : c’est cours si se formera 2019 ou 2024 revient dessus Ce mécanisme concerté largement accepté fermement ancré selon lequel s’adapte progressivement par étapes aux évolutions démographiques Pour reste politique devenue succession d’annonces d’initiatives où manquent vue d’ensemble cohérence La mise oeuvre complexe même temps confiance ministre eux-mêmes totalement défaut dit qu’il reprenait main pose questions fondamentales C’est bien signal doit cependant aussi être donné veut rétablir relation avec divers petits dossiers doit-on poursuivre concrètement Les Institutions Conseil académique proposent mettre désormais fondamentale cohérente celle-ci appliquée dès (et non comme l’accord gouvernement) encore pipe-line achevées mais seulement mesure elles contradiction objectifs finale Si possible mieux vaut alors reporter surplus pendant 5 aucune initiative prise serait porte-à-faux philosophie compliquerait transition Bien entendu cela signifie toute gelée ; nécessaire Cela consigné nouveau d’administration mouvement syndical monde l’entreprise peuvent-ils relever défi réfléchir Quelques premières réactions note du n’incitent l’optimisme Veut-on donner raison forces politiques moins concertation sociale J’ai peine croire souhaite là occasion saisir question savoir comment particulièrement basses peuvent améliorées résumé redéfinir sa stratégie ouvrir nouvelle voie prêts engager

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Kan het debat over de pensioenhervorming eindelijk beginnen? Opinie gepubliceerd in De Tijd 29 juni 2017 p 10 Frank Vandenbroucke Hoogleraar aan Universiteit van Amsterdam Hoe krijgen we een goed pensioenstelsel? Drie jaar geleden stelde commissie consensusrapport voor Het uitgangspunt was dat sociale partners en overheid ambitie vastleggen met betrekking tot kwaliteit pensioenen die ze op lange termijn wensen maatschappelijke contract zou moeten garanderen verhouding tussen gemiddelde inkomens actieven blijft wat vandaag helaas niet verzekerd is Vervolgens stipuleren welke aanpassingsmechanismen nodig zijn om deze veilig te stellen Daarnaast verschillen ambtenaren werknemers zelfstandigen je meer kan uitleggen (zoals feit pensioen opbouwen studiejaren) geleidelijk verdwijnen Tot daar notendop boodschap 2014 Heeft regering dergelijk sociaal sporen gezet? Neen Let wel heeft maatregelen genomen hoogstwaarschijnlijk noodzakelijk Een voorbeeld verhoging wettelijke pensioenleeftijd 2025 2030 Wie zich halsstarrig tegen verzet ongelijk Maar beslissing vooral aankondiging: gaat ingaat indien aantreedt 2019 of 2024 bedenkt overlegd breed aanvaard diep verankerd mechanisme waarmee pensioenstelsel stapsgewijze aangepast wordt demografische evoluties Voor overige pensioenbeleid aaneenschakeling geworden aankondigingen initiatieven waarbij overzicht samenhang zoek uitvoering dit beleid steeds complexer Tegelijkertijd vertrouwen minister onderling totaal gezegd hij opnieuw ter hand neemt legt nu enkele fundamentele vragen Dat signaal moet ook gegeven worden men diverse kleinere dossiers relatie wil herstellen concreet verder? Pensioeninstellingen Academische Raad vanaf alles zetten grondige samenhangende hervorming: doorgevoerd (en zoals regeerakkoord stond) Maatregelen nog pijplijn zitten afgewerkt maar alleen als strijdig doelstellingen uiteindelijke hervorming; mogelijk dan beter uit mogen er gedurende 5 geen komen haaks staan filosofie hervorming overgang compliceren Vanzelfsprekend zeggen ‘bevroren’ wordt; vastgelegd nieuwe beheersovereenkomst Kunnen vakbewegingen bedrijfsleven handschoen opnemen samen nadenken Enkele eerste reacties nota pensioeninstellingen stemmen optimistisch Wil politieke krachten overleg liever kwijt rijk gelijk geven? Ik moeilijk geloven Indien vakbeweging wenst ligt hier kans na denken vraag hoe werknemerspensioenen vaak bijzonder mager verbeterd kunnen Kortom strategie herdefiniëren schone lei beginnen bereid schrijven

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Intereconomics 2012 | 4 200 Forum The Welfare State After the Great Recession economic crisis has given rise to signifi cant challenges welfare state Given that expenses account for a large proportion of all spending in member countries European Union reducing government means cutting measures Yet social protection particular unemployment insurance benefi ts and minimum income support cantly softened impact millions individuals global recession calls into question fi nancial viability current programmes is being used by some as an opportunity roll back permanently present discusses opportunities after DOI: 10 1007/s10272-012-0422-y Anton C Hemerijck Frank Vandenbroucke Social Investment Euro Crisis: Necessity Unifying Policy Concept We rst review three sequences policy responses have been pursued since 2008 Comparing performance EU states during shows generous are no anathema competitiveness; second section we therefore revisit argument productive factor third addresses importance macroeconomic symmetry argue agreement on meaning “a Europe” past often viewed fair weather product rapidly becoming imperative exactly because its relevance effi ciency quality investment do matter stability eurozone conclude needs pact objectives Europe 2020 Strategy provide useful framework reconciling scal consolidation longterm provided governance serves Three Waves Crisis Management gone through phases management In immediate aftermath Lehman Brothers collapse wave exemplifi ed more or less Keynesian solutions rapid fall demand pushed authorities ECB broad range interventions including liquidity credit- For where collective coverage risks comprehensive accounts 16 30 per cent GDP repercussions mark particularly serious “stress test” 2008-2012 already redrawn boundaries between markets Will like Depression “great infl ation” predecessors signal new reconfi gure relegitimise policy? Or casualty cascade political aftershocks crisis? deepening euro 2010 reveals how profoundly interconnected economy become at same time diffi cult institutions hard times All put table from strict austerity aggressive stimulation banking union etc highly contested With national all-time low indecision leaves dangerous vacuum heart integration project believe “joint-decision trap” domestic reform can be avoided There room realistic pace adjustment (more symmetrical slower than foreseen) associated with reformoriented strategy anchored improved budgetary ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre Economics 201 Contributors this Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands Katholieke Leuven Belgium Torben M Andersen Aarhus University Denmark Philippe Pochet Trade Institute (ETUI) Brussels Christophe Degryse Gaetano Basso California Davis USA Mathias Dolls Study Labor (IZA) Bonn Germany Werner Eichhorst Thomas Leoni Austrian Economic Research (WIFO) Vienna Austria Andreas Peichl Peter Taylor-Gooby Kent UK um-skill work shift towards post-industrial labour opened up job women but deindustrialisation come declining shares steady lifetime jobs Changing family structures gender roles longer education spells later childbirth single parenthood created tensions life raised demands care children frail elderly “new” risk profi le exclusion triggered growing polarisation high-skill job-rich dual-earner families low-skill work-poor male-breadwinner single-parent households Simultaneously scope vis-à-vis these developments became narrower rather wider Capital mobility did not unleash dumping across observers feared there denying Stability enhancing help stabilise besieged Between automatic stabilisers were allowed cushion This response was complemented number extend short-term working arrangements sometimes linked training activation incentives December 2009 punctuated Greek debt took root governments had forced bail out systemic banks redefi ned profl igacy requiring tough prolonged public Troubled such Greece Ireland Portugal Spain started pushing market deregulation cuts civil servant salaries pension t freezes retirement age rises retrenchments transfers services Only United Kingdom under Cameron coalition retrenchment predicated ideological narrative about dependency By 2011 entered critical phase overhang sovereign crises came threaten Rising premiums EU’s most vulnerable suggested establish encompassing “fi compact” failed impress deemed yet another “too little too late” stopgap compromise Moreover many believed across-the-board budgets set stage double-dip What makes predicament worrying monetary practically left proactive adjustment: nances distressed interest rates close zero Politically caught Scylla Charybdis On one hand pressures defi cit reduction constrain space other disenchanted electorates increasingly unwilling abide promises leaders agreed supranational rescue packages rules Revisiting “Social Productive Factor” Long before environment changing Population ageing fertility early overburdened systems Technological change reduced routine-based low- mediIntereconomics 202 Growth Pact increased pressure Although drivers common they create existing repertoires trigger vary country While successful updating their transformations preceding others fared well 1 decades pigeonhole terms blackand- white dichotomy heterogeneous disparate uneven substance employment centred board emphasis “making pay” provision fl exibility However turn appeared various guises which situated continuum “productivist” bent increasing supply productivity “capacitating” suggest “all well” northern competitive strengths Scandinavian economies recognised outcome long-term process capacitating contrast competitiveness gaps southern interact two-tiered outdated mainly passive contracts biased pensioners inhibiting both adequate educated youth singleparent wish confi ne merely “productive input” important returns reduce search costs foster cient matches Well-organised universal potentially enhances distorts Similarly bargaining permits macroeconomically responsive wage setting Even balanced together worker participation works councils contribute competiveness engaging workers production processes Finally stabilises activity it sus- A Hemerijck: Oxford Press; When States Eurocrisis Meet in: Sociologica No (with comments U Ascoli -J Barbier J Beckfi eld G Bonoli Palme) tains effective kind Keynesianism backdoor proved functional credit crunch bankruptcy Security against adverse effects illness disability old divorce childbearing value citizens se also society burden poverty instability would if It naïve deny principles advance ciency-equity frontier access available 2 today far demographic conditions post-war era expansion sustainability hinges future taxpayers 3 Next fundamental mission protect should mobilising potential mitigating atypical lack Labour decisions contingent health comparative analysis regimes supports plausibility claim gains investing child vocational seldom taken seriously cost-benefi analyses options Imperative Defi ning choices made institutional isolation Institutions explain provisions target groups nanced tax sys- Esping-Andersen D l i e Myles (eds ): Why need New 2002 S r s : generational confl ict reconsidered Journal Vol 12 pp 5-21; b L Saxenian R n P H K Hautamäki: Individualized Service Provision State: Lessons Special Education Finland Report prepared SITRA Helsinki 2010; F Vleminckx: Disappointing Poverty Trends: Is Blame? Vo 21 5 450-471; Nelson Stephens: Do policies produce better jobs? N More B – m Towards state? Ideas Bristol Press 205-234 T d h Palme: Sustainable Policies Ageing Europe: human capital Stockholm 2006 Future Studies 203 tems run and/or private actors Some legacies able incorporate innovations instance impossible assess childhood mothers’ participate supported equality parental leave To extent service oriented requires professionalisation administration respect collection complementarities applies relationship undeniable success inception 1958 served expand Borrowing Robert Gilpin’s phrase Maurizio Ferrera aptly captured “Keynes home Smith abroad” limited EU-wide high growth stemming liberalisation “unencumbered” maturation 1945 Now exposed earlier division home-grown progressive sustainable Current levels without possibility reverting country-specifi c strategies based currency devaluations imply (or ciency) strengthens prosperity stagnation) whole vice versa failure regime lies today’s conundrum original theory EMU assumption ECB’s mandate price equally strong commitment enforced raise among Enhanced competition subsequently translate greater force democratic launch incisive blaming inevitability architects short conceived re Mapping Components EU: Critical Analysis Institutional Patchwork E 2020: EU? Lang 45-68; p Political Economy International Relations Princeton NJ 1987 355 Milward Rescue Nation London 2000 Routledge naturally structural weakness happy equilibrium forthcoming Instead confronted destabilising cits Italy; housing bubbles Spain; surpluses plausible assume along contributed slowing down insider-biased Paradoxically surplus Nordic concerned intensifi momentum 1990s Over decade clear high-tax high-spend Northern performed Lisbon Agenda indicators even underscores fact polities afford well-organised want simple one-sided causalities appears notably Southern comparatively ineffi Figure summarises developed 6 leading conclusion level Latvia regard (together Italy apply criteria maps average results obtained PISA tests 15-year-old students rate cohort 24 29 share population 25 64 bracket upper secondary 20 7 Figures only illustrate compared EU15 employment; underscore huge agenda confronting Spaniards 25- 34-year-old lower education; Vandenbroucke: challenge Union’s objective necessity luxury OSE Opinion Paper 11 July www ose be/EN As shown mapping illustrates different educational 204 six young people Vandenbroucke8 argues disequilibrium within may formulate precisely correct assert ages tied expectancy similar manner reasons then reasoning holds attainment If asymmetry Spanish retiring German unsustainable German/Nordic considered long observation comes big required area necessitates convergence parameters) disputable underlying raises complex cognitive normative issues But basic consensus needed those arguments words model compatible degree necessary sustain Today much attention paid rightly so shortterm Here focus longer-term perspective Members face interrelated trade-offs determine sustainability: organise members 9 Symmetry refers output correlated Flexibility relates interregional international country’s “internal” capacity case asymmetric shock Less trade-off mitigated possible facing aim temporary stabilisation redistribution richer poorer regions: free lunch diversion development cannot pursue 8 op Grauwe: Monetary Comparative Effi Spending Results Employment Rate (24-29) Upper Secondary Note: Regression lines drawn structure presentation causality; correlation education/employment rate: EU27: -0 39; EU17: 66; EU10: 47 Source: Own calculations Eurostat data LFS SILC BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE ES GR FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL RO SI SK FI SE IS NO HV 0 15 35 expenditure % 2007 At_risk_of_poverty total PT DKCZ CR 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 Average 2000_2009 (24_29) 40 50 Share (25_64) (20_64) EU17 EU10 (ex_comm ) 205 reciprocity Jean Pisani-Ferry10 issue treated shared temporarily accept somewhat higher ation make adjustments maintained uses leniency continue must avoid overkill according Pisani-Ferry They settlements above observed (including wages add) rational Reciprocity implies regaining shouldered partners Economically that; socially politically disruptive Pisani-Ferry’s extrapolated larger imbalances achieving condition deliberately coined our proposal Europe-wide approach pact” keen see “pact” emerging notion sense embedded proposed Conclusions rests stock (early lifelong learning) flow serving use (through supporting female active facilitating promote exible security course) dimension traditional complementary emphasise elsewhere panacea ills eschew easy rhetoric “win-win policies” internal icts arise when pursuing y euro-area rebalancing bruegel org 22 May Working Ibid preventive monitoring forecloses address disequilibria via stabilising what currently tries achieve “six-pack” does unifi superstate availability How capacities redress divergences intrusive surveillance willing go each neutral context constitute determining order idea determined while presumably wrong priori evident far-reaching harmonisation guarantee avenues outcomes These open-ended intrinsic any however remain unresolved badly point position basics Clarifi cation really goal Admittedly reaching fraught culties “internal exibility” married securities relations migration? Are fear misuse igate delaying reform? extent? 206 Public Sector Part Solution Problem? Immediately onset sector Both very actively Commission OECD IMF spoke coordinated expansionary consequence affected budget reactions discretionary boost Large combination initial soon independent concerns forefront responded yield Treasury rose several purpose insecurity consequences business cycle downturns sharing ensure suffer disproportionately changes beyond direct control period prior successes extended questioned At challenged globalisation shaken belief causes attributed failures excesses proven crisis-free thus step turned narrow margins least part offer substantive nition (and EU) deployed obviously corollary conditional popular trust handle interdependent world Currently witness backlash seen “the (as action) France rising anti-austerity protests emerged malaise alternance now opens possiblility Democrats Christian Liberals lled fragmentation anti-EU populism trend right certainly Already middle class fears falling behind invoked nostalgic “golden-age” paradise lost pitted alleged globalising ambitions Again adapted aligning perspectives investments medium-term mutually supportive reformist gives acquis cherish credible juncture discount massive achievements over half century unprecedented widening regional twenty-seven creating community million accompanied promoting democracy securing peace barely conceivable start reconstruction could “caring virtuous circle solidarity trusted 207 whether increases turns permanent Safety Net safety net main channel cushions shocks system plays role disposable incomes mechanisms individual cance aggregate form term stabiliser summary concept revenues expenditures situation g will deteriorating absorbed Thus crucial absorb ve facts worth noting: I size/strength closely related (see 1); tax-fi tend result discussion changed solution problem Accordingly Many implemented implementing tighten savings estimates planned tightening 2011-2013 corresponds 2% one-third two-thirds reductions Despite expected continues evolved inferred recent developments? Does previously recognised? arrangements? following worked primarily so-called noting despite steep decrease increase standard inequality remained fairly constant cushioning diversifying ability perform task unconditional met accommodate severe errors consolidated reforms cope demographics insuffi exacerbated brought problems open effect few exceptions itself exit Such nance relies maintain (in sector) OECD: Outlook Publishing Gini coeffi See http://epp eurostat ec europa eu/portal/page/portal/sdi/ indicators/theme3 Size Automatic Stabilisers size measured 2005 relative percentage Sources: oecd-ilibrary org; rouard é Measuring cyclically-adjusted balances paper 434 AUS AUT BEL CAN DEU DNK ESP FIN FRA GBR IRL ITA JPN NLD NOR NZL POR SWE 45 208 weakened Somewhat paradoxically praised disregarded micro relation possibly strengthened jeopardising inevitable ict? Errors precondition well-functioning prudent ensuring good absorption bad buffer function muting uctuations fulfi upward gross 2) 1970s 1980s two around 75% noteworthy spite favourable develop- Using unchanged seems systematic pattern initially weak tended get stronger whereas muted stabilisers; Va Noord ; II serve positive riskaverse agents Private alternatives type imperfect incomplete III hence consumption IV mute V rule-based inducing Hence require up-to-date information played advantage automatically react swiftly overlooked debate devoted dose correctly Furthermore attractive properties (insurance) (aggregate distribution) source renewed wake widely argued macro design by-product entitlements nancing years incentive concern implications Andersen: Role Active Fiscal Stabilization CESifo 51 511-547 stabilizers 230 o u distribution IZA Discussion 4917 Debt Countries 1970-2013 2011-13 forecast org/statistics database 100 120 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 209 shrinking pensions shrink undertaken suffi assessed overall upon backward arising forward depicted showing indicator improvement 5% stressing known quite lacking top produced policymakers fail balance revenue generated cover intertemporal constraint satisfi World Bank: Averting Old Age Washington 1994; Countries: Challenge Paris 1996; IMF: transition 2004 137-180; Commission: ment Due led further ratio refl ects Budget debts display tendency bias; frequent bias underscored considering (2007) subsequent separate 3) cases critically notable namely Iceland relatively explained (for 42 points 13 points) major reason backward-looking Most Developments During Financial Gross Sustainability Indicator S2 Update 4/2006 Finances 3/2011 _50 150 EST KOR CHE SVK CZE SVN POL ISR HUN PRT OEC ISL GRC _5 EL 210 pairing decreases improvements strained sensitive reduces cial coping puts strains relevant experience persistent 1970s/1980s onwards sluggish lessons contributing making strengthening persistence slow recovery Ljungqvist Sargent10 describe “time bomb” operate ciently tranquil turbulence easily translates latter caused reservation due depreciate skills nd dependent inertia hinders restructuring asserted12 frictional induce turbulent j q v rgent: Unemployment Dilemma 106 1998 514- 550 multiple equilibria arises taking countered costly effectiveness reinforcing oppositely Swedish Review 39 1043- 1070 warning signals rates; inclined push visible expensive bond practical purposes identical solidity 4) until spreads adversely late reinforce speeding dynamics having expansive Sweden succeeded consolidating addressed show detrimental wellfunctioning state; widens faced freedom counteract concluded consolidate undertake though deteriorated cause zone manoeuvre Past paradoxical Persistence Net9 achieved cost im- builds Collective sharing: 211 marginalisation Concluding Remarks providing degrees Consolidation creates neglected themselves situations underlines revealed aws curtailed worsened Policymakers downplaying blame game backfi ring involving core ordinary appear solely explanation advanced Lindbeck who norms counteracting norm self-supporting counters scheme Allowing endogenous depending (possibly lag) positively falls downturn eroded non-employment involved assessing empirical strength hypothesis responsiveness involves (volatility) (persistence) clearly minimise evidence deep year 18 events 1970-2007 recovered pre-crisis instances occured ten regularities linking endeavour metrics imprecise characterise summarise cross-plot measure outlier removed sample indication erodes own foundation Clearly Lindbeck: Hazardous Dynamics American Papers Proceedings 9- 15; Nyberg W Norms Association 2-3 2003 533-542 autocorrelation sourceoecd 95 00 212 last enquire whereby justifi programme hardly convincing look explanations place constraints secondly prosaically From Response Deregulation Prerequisite gain view conducted Laulom et al examined 2008-2011 2010-2012 covered Clauwaert Schömann studies differ minor details convergent elements emerge: appearance distinct periods outbreak nature chronological sequence noticeable break starting dynamic fashion excessively brutal (unemployment plummeting purchasing power rm closures Degryse4 his draws sudden swing end marked virtually succession “structural” Upon consideration touch aspects law grouped Mazuyer Te Triomphe Legislation Europe? ETUI Brief 2/2012 http://www etui org/Publications2/ Policy-Briefs/European-Economic-Employment-and-Social-Policy/ How-has-the-crisis-affected-social-legislation-in-Europe w Schömann: National Law Reforms: Exercise 04 Degryse: La nouvelle gouvernance économique européenne Courrier du CRISP Since week announcing plans affecting legislation justify systematically refer construction overlooked; hear repetition discourse concerning “modernise” differing models) “save” them) crisis; creation attempt carry (the semester arsenal multilateral Plus Budgetary specifi recommendations recently culminated emanating Council Presidency establishment article briefl reviews adopted elds covers EU27 thereby overview areas limiting picture frequently mentioned (Greece Italy) radical call foundations constructed emerges launched characterised nite suggesting inspiration derives roots * Translation French Kathleen Llanwarne According Mr Van Rompuy link statutory expectancy; lecho be/actualite/economie_politique_europe/Pensions_toute_l_Europe_ doit_reformer_dit_Van_Rompuy 9207088-3323 art?ckc+1 Degryse* Programmed Dismantling “European Model” 213 paragraphs limitations exclusively placed Insofar topic subject subsidiarity principle eruption principally ministers tackled decided voices “non-fi nancial” construct dealing questions cally pertaining series parametric 2000s actual coincide ways reached acquired entitlement full pension) motion (2010- 2012) aimed radically altering built maximum limit bringing moveable scale accordance factors 2011-2012 alone abolished normal intro- Math Pochet: Les en débats acteurs méthode Revue belge de sécurité sociale 2001 345- 362 Pensions: Debate k Whit Pension 21st Century Redrawing Public-Private 44-63 Networks Pensions Participation organised Interests Policy-making Process 307-335; Na Turmoil Owing Key Messages (ed 119-147 four categories industrial redundancy procedures Table savage numerous Announced Adopted Reforms Industrial Relations/Collective Bargaining Systems Certain Aspects decentralisation bargaining; types (+*) (+**); MoU: signed Memorandum Understanding Reform systems1 Changes individual/ dismissal contracts2 + +** Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic +* Estonia MoU3 Hungary Lithuania Luxembourg Poland Romania +/+** Slovakia Slovenia 214 offi counterpart employers ignored example Portugal) erga omnes extension sectoral agreements authorise ever derogations successive fundamentally called today; impose binding dismantled underway reinstate twofold differentiation category persons receipt supplementary enjoy choose retire broadly speaking skilled professionals whose expectancies choice lower-skilled precarious enjoyment shorter Choices essentially additional sources (dependent qualifi cations career) Factors reality content advocated certain economists breadth Explain Developments? mainstream described compels adopt Vendramin Valenduc: Métiers vieillissement au travail Une analyse des résultats la cinquième enquête sur les (EWCS 2010) duced ranging 61 established “ought” facto introduction moving gradual projections lead 71 2050 An desire encouraging here pensions) none announced regarded representing Protection Know existence recognition inherently parties employer “market” gave branch classic unions protracted struggles employers’ “opposite numbers” gained resting pedestal rights consisted improve previous looks indicate backsliding contract equated commercial operating equal footing trade Observatoire Français Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE): réformes retraites dans crise Document l’OFCE 2010-17 215 developments14) received criticism introduce reforms;15 Degryse16 (Germany) nine (Belgium) this: efforts curb criterion judged Indeed comparison apparently eyes indexation mechanism unit indeed imposed assistance) neither solving nor boosting might be? ect strategic (central bankers DG ECFIN) window oppor- 14 Goodbye Bismarck? Politics Continental First control?11 calling “reform systems”12 (59% 2007) 9% GDP? “consistent tability allows employment-enhancing investment”?13 why unconvincing likely medium adoption take generally extremely slightest ripple claimed complete opposite direction proper apparent “Bismarckian” ones best resist quarter stand performers gratifi “specifi recommendations” relating formation (Luxembourg Governance Fragile Eurozone CEPS 346 Union: Recommendation Broad Guidelines Member Community (2005 2008) Offi 205/28 (2008Q2-2012Q1) Seasonally adjusted Malta 2008Q2 2012Q1 216 stituted attempts goals saw launching “open methods coordination” (OMC) weaknesses intended predominance “imperatives” promoted ECFIN stages attaining broken beginning 2004/2005 (particularly arrival José Manuel Barroso President) OMCs favour vision gradually reinstated purely coincided right-wing centre-right 2007-2008 2009-2010 medium- “Europe 2020” replace bring priority headings collectively “meta-priority” route sought documents legislative initiatives treaty amendments ultimate path ascent central hesitate dictate Draghi’s letter Spain) give expression preference nutshell busy “economic hive” version preference: henceforth variables decentralise weight erode privatise forth Conclusion responding 2008-2009 embarked tunity turning model” variable absence genuine 17 productivity) “competitive (currency) devaluations” days converted regulation” governing devaluation elds; application represents archetype day Mario Draghi President Central Bank believes dead” overhaul powerful uential mechanically things optimum (“transfer union”) 19 transformation wishes pacts majority left-wing centre successively place: 1997 con- Convergence économies européennes quel bilan ans après ? 2012-04 d’analyse stratégique Verdun: asymmetrical Perceptions Authorities Partners Integration 1996 59-81; Euros Europeans: Model Society Cambridge Existing Theories Predicament (forthcoming) What’s EU2020? Issue Policy-Briefs/European-Social-Policy/What-s-wrong-with- EU2020 Model: Evolving Players Strategies ETUI-REHS 79-99 217 dictated circumstances Their contrary dismantle features averting full-scale deterioration lowest strongest ght evidently just resolution long-haul vigorously enacted enthusiasm dismantling mode operation commit energies voluntary cohesion broadest designated targeted EMU’s hegemonic forms (wage protection) lieu thing (2010-2012) relate line usual issued principal states’ centre-right) socio-economic (crisis worsening expectations 23 royal road imposing hard-hitting painful witnessing offensive dialogue reference crisis” way expectation progressives everything reveal weakening neoliberal doctrine theoretical underpinnings advocates regulation stricter controls Peichl* Effects Recent Market Arrangements Across Socio-Economic Groups grateful Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) acknowledges excellent research assistance Lukas Tockner authors Second RDW Conference Geneva 6-8 losses tax-benefi sets O rg Distributional labor-demand shocks: Tax Finance 118-138 affect varying extents; varied greatly 218 cross-country variation unequal differences deserve careful scrutiny Theoretical Background dispute magnitude contraction attenuated considerably duration actions sides general action included low-income bound asymmetrically Job loss leads sharp decline unemployed families; marginally stagnating real resulting enhanced presence in-work replacement immediately starts integrated ineffective (replacement) margin exclusive means-tested stringent means-testing obliges sell un- “quality” protected dualism “both market” Patterns nets contributions distinguished inactive redundancies Of record earnings xed-term holders substantial waiting interrupted addition part-time employees low-wage draw earnings-related Apart inclusive character generosity evaluate solid either meet claims (i) records entrants (ii) monthly (iii) self-em- Beyond Eurosclerosis 59 409-461 445 219 ployed actually practice Access short-time schemes safeguard tenure Minimum eligible depends household-related testing time-limited restrictions play child-related reliable calculated typical allowances unsuitable relief Stabilisation transfer determines compares composition One note simulation exercise instead assuming utilisation controlled experiments proportional household (income shock) modelling analysing typically losing suffering usually rigid consider unemploy- 32 227-256; crisis: US vs 96 3-4 279-294 personal taxes payroll Computations endogeneity Our highest 56% (53%) (48%) values found (25%) (28%) (29%) exception seem Decomposition Income Coeffi Scenarios Country Ranking coefficient Federal SIC Benefits EURO SW SP IR GE 220 cients (82%) followed (68%) (62%) (61%) spectrum below 34% include (23%) (31%) (33%) Regarding distributional quantiles quantile follow Eastern modelled reweighting characteristics newly Contribution Discretionary Measures easing improving non-standard qualifying (e Sweden) prolongation Romania) sub-groups workforce realm crisis-related strengthen Ministerial Meeting background document session 1: beyond: facilitate (re-)employment featured prominently widespread reaction train employed intensify 27 steps placement invest retraining reinforced entrepreneurship component complementing discussed countercyclical especially proportionality reacts absolute Estimates historically person resources Looking cyclicality detailed nds totally unresponsive cyclical represent Conversely jobcreation Another geared innovative Austria’s encourage skill prevent prominent Generosity ease basically interaction motivation rely annual Cazes Ve ILO 2009: Tackling 2009; 2009… 221 Belgium’s lesser Italy’s France’s reliance predated experienced scarcely attractiveness amount subsidisation symmetric Numerous explicitly marginal outlooks (such workers) weaker segments spread equitably force: layoffs concentrates small hours partial rms keeping subsidy layoff short-work shortages rm-specifi knowledge) separation surprising regular Low-qualifi tasks knowledge Cahuc Carcillo Hijzen rc Short-time Work Good Method Keep Down? CEPR 8214 Venn10 OECD11 stabilised segmentation Dual Markets segmented preliminary EPL index severity assessment regulations 199012 strictest standards carried exceeding twothirds deviation observe converging path: contemporaneous crosscountry measurement non-trivial two-tier affects dimensions probability status transitions nally differentials Going detail looked plot (on side) 81 positions negatively (ρ=-0 72) steadily z Venn: Short-Time Schemes 2008-09 Migration 115 2010… Marx Devisscher Marterbauer Edere rd Vanhore Stabiliser: study Parliament Reports 31 222 (15 countries) 33 34 recession-related quarterly Force Survey representative declined (compared 6% employment); (9 4%) reported slightly (5 dropped 6%) lot 1% comparing quarters) drop 2008Q2- 2010Q2 2010Q1 outperformed noticed (among Boeri Bruecker13 OECD14) different: again Bruecker: Benefi Revisited: 5635 mean once hires explains regarding suggests coincide: former literature Figari analysed using EUROMOD simulations D’Amuri16 interesting Italian younger older non-dual dual group difference be- stress 257-286 ’ 155- 180 Based classifi premia probabilities presented rankings Non-dual always excluding Temporary Workers Percentage Total Dependent statistics Transition Probability Permanent Positions (left panel); EU-SILC 2004-2007 longitudinal (right panel) _ probability: temp perm Regular Contracts Index 223 Establishing avoids lags fiscal stimuli prepare overcome xedterm prevented element working-age course appropriate disincentives evaluated contribution well-targeted timely eventually pro-cyclical impacts Growing otherwise hamper counter uncertainties carefully regularly check rule-driven quasi-automatic helpful referring deciding maintenance (non-subsidised) dualisms regulatory divide agency models “unifi contract” tween middle-aged (around 37 2%) recipients hold holding problematic Taking inherent taxation lag phase-out recover subsidies trained uniform Coverage Age: Nondual Living Condition Non_dual 36 224 entail strikingly Mediterranean ambition “social paying succeeding embedding British stated sentence June Emergency deal “decisively recovery” totals £110 3bn equivalent cut 1921-1922 apart exceptional 43 moved command War areas:5 Non-pension disabled Housing Child frozen credits save onefi fth Overall Vi Kersbergen Hylands: Administration 338-353 HM Treasury: Chancellor’s Speech hmtreasury gov uk/junebudget_speech htm (accessed 28 2011) Cmnd 7892 October http://cdn hm-treasury uk/sr2010_completereport pdf Ta r-Gooby Stoke: Coalition Quarterly 82 4-15; Yeates Haux Jawad Defence social-policy uk/downloads/idow Beveridge Overboard? Government Permanently Restructure government’s combines non-state for-profi providers local diversity redistributive poor bearing broader trajectory wholesale return secure helps basis Those Canada Zealand examples restructurings restoring sustaining fell sharply commonality embodied investment” logic spillover Maastricht Treaty onto quantity method coordination departure Taken Obinger Starke Moser Bogedan Obinger- f Transformation Starke: Radical Retrenchment Basingstoke Palgrave; r-Gooby: Root Branch Restructuring Achieve Major Cuts: Programme 46 61-81 225 partments staff employs men 18- 24-year-olds gures cutbacks shifting frugal unclear envisage nearly 2017 spender G7 Japan history reverse money committed reversing occasions Two maintain: rstly opposition perhaps junior partner voice forceful resistance revised downwards Secondly largest precipitate 1920s package introduced strike Various episodes cutback listed lasting reverted eight hopes succeed ambitious striking prove episode revert driven demography Y Cooper: Women bear brunt yvettecooper com/women-bear-brunt-of-budget-cuts 2011); Women’s Group: Impact ce Statistics: Statistics Tables A02 A06 ons uk/ons/publications/re-reference- tables html?edition=tcm%3A77-222441 Responsibility: March 8303 Chart http://budgetresponsibility uk/fi scal-sustainability-report-july-2011/; Database April imf org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/index aspx Congress: Call Day Action tuc uk/economy/tuc-20184-f0 cfm; “Interview Times” Times ft com/cms/ s/0/7ab1d982-a42c-11e1-84b1-00144feabdc0 html#axzz1vgcp3QH7 earning £150 000 (about taxpayers) VAT authoritative estimate indicates decile bottom deciles lose intermediate Older seven Cuts Health (NHS) schools overseas aid cash roughly one-fi NHS retained pre-school school-leaving universities colleges Local responsible de- O’Dea: Who loses cuts? ifs uk/publications/5313 rowne: http:// Studies: Green General Expenditure Fund: September org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2011/02/weodata/index 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 2014 2016 226 deeper ts; move third) cost-effi responsibility away expanding sphere responsibility; variegated patterns accepted undermine solidaristic Cash Under passed favourably rst-tier remains uprated indices involve partially offset poorest 66 2018 67 median 2025 subsidised second-tier funded continued Employees enrolled opt extensive 2013 combined Universal Credit simpler includes Seekers Allowance Support Credits withdrawal earned generate Entitlement Projections (IFS) (mainly Institute: Implications Pensioner https://www pensionspolicyinstitute uk/uploadeddocuments/Events/2011events/20110711_PPI_ AgeUK_Pensioner_Poverty_Seminar_writeup alongside underlie unravel reasons: time); empower stakeholders forces politics Planned (%GDP) Achieved Outcome Comment 1921-2 Geddes Axe 8% 1925 govt 1929 outweighed 1930 1931 4% 1933 Made 1936 Cost centrally locally Loan 1979 govt) 1983 Mainly 1980-90 Thatcher “Rolling state” 3% 1993 Election 1991 1993-9 Major/New Further Labour’s 2007-10 Brown (effi savings) Two-thirds Overtaken stimulus Episodes 1921-2010 Peacock Wiseman: 1890-1955 1967 Unwin; Hood: Cutback Bureaucracies 1989 Hood Emerson Dixon: Hard Output 1855-1965 1972 ukpublicspending co uk/uk_art19_derivation_of_uk_public_spending_for_1900_1950 html 153 227 variant contracting “any provider” provider”) relaxation responsibilities GP practices managing devolved £80bn fewer targets repeated denials Minister’s shape moves arms multinational medical competitors sub-contract GPs ranges priorities Much depend continuing decentralising school initiated massively expanded funding object effectively takes them powers encouraged enter Regulation curriculum teachers’ pay relaxed (infl 2011-12 cent) hard-pressed divert Sure Start fallen 16-19 college outside schooling (16) continuation locality fees £9 indications applications (slightly women) forcing prestigious noted consumer retail CPI ignores charges living IFS uprating (at line) parents emphatic orientation ected proposals acquire tribunal adjudicates unfair Disability restructured severely Capability Test tightened contracted agencies intention removing claimers saving £1bn capable Services: Contracting Out For-profi Providers Prime Minister signalled “presumption” providers” Open Services White reform: presumption “wherever competing service” accountability rewer rowne Briefi ng 116 uk/bns/bn116 Working-Age Commentary C121 uk/comms/comm121 Woods: Ye Cameron: revolution February telegraph uk/news/politics/8337237/David-Cameron-promises- public-sector-revolution Cabinet ce: cmnd 8415 cabinetoffi uk/sites/default/fi les/resources/open-publicservices- white-paper 228 regressive doubling opposed compounds references Big Society: culture mutuality obligation” concentrated focussed (health clubs religious groupings aid)25 enormously diverse closest (employment advocacy services) receive 26 substitute Progress ministerial decision shifts O’Dea Hugo Young lecture November conservatives com/News/Speeches/2009/11/David_ Cameron_The_Big_Society Lyon Sepulveda: enterprises: approaches directions Enterprise 83-94; Mohan: Third 62 tsrc ac uk/LinkClick aspx?fi leticket=izLuarcAwMs% 3D&tabid=500 Voluntary Organisations: Funding ncvo-vol uk/sfp/ bigsociety “The Sectors” Baldock 322 organisations 32-33; Organisations Woodhouse: Cameron’s hit Evening Standard Non-Universal directed careers transport importantly communities’ 68 deprived tier shire districts corresponding Price Waterhouse Coopers’ “negative” region mergers contractors completed contains Direct replaced bulk claimer months trialled succeeds key Whether contractual obligations enforceable calculate differently obvious one-tenth technical reasons21 judges House Commons Library: Settlement 11/16 parliament uk/briefi ngpapers/commons/lib/ Coopers: Sectoral Regional Squeeze Association: lga uk/lga/core/page do?pageId=16647103 Review… B6 229 decide spend constituted semi-autonomous staffi admission considerable sums parliamentary extra restoration Perhaps introduces winning lobby Unravelling provoke party Any contractedout held restrict intervene players exceptionally embark writing plus largely political: bite direction? homelessness feel insecure businesses gaining privatised sectors abandoned he rescued