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ABSTRACT Im November 2017 verkündeten das Europaparlament, der Rat und die Europäische Kommission feierlich »Europäische Säule sozialer Rechte«: 20 Grundsätze für Chancengleichheit Zugang zum Arbeitsmarkt, faire Arbeitsbedingungen, soziale Sicherung Inklusion. Positiv kann vermerkt werden, dass zu einer fortdauernden politischen Agenda werden könnte, welche über Amtszeit Juncker hinausreicht. Es besteht aber Gefahr, es, falls EU es nicht schaffen sollte ihre Versprechen einzulösen, einem Rückschlag kommen lange Zeit neue Anläufe, eine umfassende Dimension hinzuzufügen, blockieren würde. stellt sich also Frage, wie Potenzial maximiert kann. TREFWOORDEN: Rechte; soziales Europa; Europäischen Sozialunion

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Risk Sharing When Unemployment Hits: How Policy Design Influences Citizen Support For European (EURS) report Results of a survey experiment by the University Amsterdam (the Netherlands) With support INAPP (Italy)1 Authors: Frank Vandenbroucke (UvA) Brian Burgoon Theresa Kuhn Francesco Nicoli Stefano Sacchi (INAPP) David van der Duin Sven Hegewald (UvA)2 Correspondence address: f i g vandenbroucke@uva nl To cite this report: 2018 AISSR Report 1 (December) We also thank KULeuven for financial 2 Erik Schokkaert Sharon Baute Miroslav Beblavy and Mathias Dolls comments IPSOS staff their in fielding ACES-community at UvA promoting interdisciplinary environment needed research Zahra Runderkamp layout production Abstract In aftermath Eurozone crisis proposals to share risk unemployment shocks have been high on political agenda Welfare states built-in automatic stabilisers cushion economic notably insurance The argument with regard is that monetary union needs mechanisms buttress or complement stabilizers its member states; national might achieve However are citizens ready crises hitting countries? This sheds light crucial yet unresolved question conducting conjoint public sharing among representative sample 19641 respondents 13 October November studies citizen preferences policy implementing EURS vary six dimensions: (1) generosity (2) education training conditions (3) between-country redistribution (4) versus administration (5) impact taxes (6) individual job search effort Our results show design matters They highlight variation across countries socio-economic ideological differences Most importantly fundamental opposition confined small segment population all there potential majorities specific packages organize Contents SUMMARY p 4 1. Purpose structure 20 2. Cross-border when hits: typology options 23 3. 38 4. What we know from existing solidarity Europe 46 5. Main 54 6. Pointers policy-makers 85 APPENDIX 87 References 101 Summary Why conduct cross-border sharing? Commission has argued repeatedly Monetary Union be completed fiscal shocks; instance benefits purchasing power people who lose one would re-insurance benefit schemes level Another option tabled scheme supports Member States’ investment capacity they hit cope reduced revenue increased spending Both common insight: it important can play role times whilst simultaneously protected; therefore some extent an ‘insurance union’ EU remains basis conducted States covering 70% EU’s involving organized many different ways Thus generic idea stability bolstered cross- border risks related led large variety detailed designed take diversity as much possible into account translate straits understandable way core variants tested new need due significant increase Therefore refer our ‘European Sharing’ policies aiming particular modes social condition personal world view main conclusions evidence leads following (EURS): • Fundamental relatively Citizens sensitive EURS: although sensitivity differs generally tend prefer more generous (more means: larger amount subsidies thus higher guaranteed minimum participating countries) require offer unemployed entail no tax increases beneficiaries fulfill least (e accept suitable offer) Generous carry each even if package additional taxation (whether indeed case not something discuss; than hypothesis which test) domestic rich poor eventual burden (if burden) necessary rally sufficient most implementation decentralized: adds arguments developed elsewhere should try build true but systems lump sum transfers associated good combination activation A debate exercises community lot e how tolerant structural seems less express policymakers say such debates important; other issues – requirements seem weight citizens’ judgment Rather insurmountable polarization observe room constructive democratic deliberation methodology: ‘conjoint analysis’ order explore attitudes these complex questions fielded focused confronted three pairs two alternative (hence total) thereby asked sets questions: pair had tell us prefer; indicate whether strongly oppose somewhat (or neither nor it) gathered information about relative absolute resistance against 3 number features (in call ‘the fixed points’); differ dimensions label moving parts’) ‘fixed points’ judged following: disbursement State triggered State; does generate permanent cash flow earmarked benefits: used subsidize floor levels informed provide own expense ‘moving parts’ make think ‘generosity’ dimension (D1) ‘training education’ (D2) ‘between-country redistribution’ (D3) ‘taxation’ (D4) ‘administration’ (D5) ‘job dimension’ (D6) Concretely parts differentiate follows: concerns country intrinsically set Three support/common envisaged; expressed percentage last wage first months unemployment: (i) 40% (ii) 60% (iii) presence absence) must obtain support: either addition ask about: (a) respondent’s age citizenship residence NUTS2 activity recent past income source household composition; (b) experience feelings insecurity his/her perception evolution position; (c) general ideology electoral values religion identity; (d) opinion responsibility governments secure decent standard living actual people; (e) trust trade unions institutions current leaders EU: (f) concern globalization migration societal problems opportunities refers question: may long run receive pay it? Here distinction between ‘pure insurance’ whereby cannot paid (no run); ‘tolerant’ allows any kind emerge run; ‘redistributive’ scheme: next severe deliberately generates distribution long-run respondents’ scenarios tabled: taxation; will 0 5% everyone country; 1% only distinguishes administered One interpret ‘genuine scheme’ (whereby fund out directly citizens) ‘re-insurance’ disburses budgetary whole system national); go detail tests ‘European’ ‘national’ applying distinguish scenarios: benefit; apply per week These 324 combinations (3 x = 324): risk-sharing Each 19500 6 drawn randomly total robust result random draw methodology called analysis It misunderstand nature saying imply equivalent incomes figures meant come extra contributions contributions; ‘0 5%’ ‘1%’ simple convey message nothing Whilst left open survey: coverage benefits4 issue debt5 participate limited Eurozone6 details administrative operations 7 motivate choice cover essence huge outstanding both relevant accurate accessible differentiates rather going best knowledge time ‘policy design’ problem referring imagine since do exist practice wanted avoid making exercise imagination too was implemented Austria Belgium Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Ireland Italy Netherlands Poland Spain considerably respect development welfare state model (notably strictness vis-à-vis availability monitoring efforts sanctions applied); performance over 10 years geographical location length membership Fieldwork means online panel company National terms because waiting periods eligibility rules labour market logic propose guidelines bound aspect concrete proposal domain confront quality entails captured focus linear (thus abstraction minima caps differentiation composition etc ) 5 Whether debt salient issuance intertemporal smoothing functionality so-called ‘asymmetric shocks’ mentioned But framing wording compatible respondent nudged long-term perspective requires (for explicitly ‘long run’ impacts) part survey; framed ‘EU implies necessarily (two belong Eurozone) precise ensure (such ‘experience rating’ ‘claw-back’ mechanisms) Neither them exact funded took place 2018; assured Nudging judging respondents: careful approach did nudge positive outcomes pitfalls outcome expected everywhere consequence lower security mention undersell proposal: presented principles ‘need’ (across (implicitly using word) moral hazard: become worried pro-active overall crises; incentives individuals find jobs soon possible) diminish upshot obviously interpreted remedies hazard behavior recipients sense present survey’s phenomena inevitable design: inattentive inconsistent Since want reason lack attention seen aim considered On hand reality formation opinions views ‘inattentive discarded includes check eliminate end longer attentive simply attentive) exclusion fail check; eliminates 19% inclusion those Respondents packages: resistance) single chooses B then expresses gives prima facie response If happens Again process; pollute give (and one) 11 9%; consider low figure given complexity Only 6% statistical Eliminating generation changes Yet inevitably create (prima facie) internally example: based net contributors Taking (with temporary fluctuations) X improve rely external Consider very today An Estonian combines ‘no taxation’ ‘a (at least) equal unemployment’ judge feasible (it further decrease programmes cut deficits allowed proposed survey) example shows internal inconsistency country-specific feature: target unemployment) without funding unfeasible Given rough conclusion zoom consistent 8 First observations: limited: 10% rejects majority reviewed ‘reject’ oppose) converse pattern makes ‘free lunch’ type ‘cheap talk’ External incompatible situation: Y Z receipt structurally redistributive run) preferred excludes run: combine inconsistencies existence unique mobilize accepted under review Figure ES4 Executive illustrates positively (somewhat support) saw: 66% 9 shown ES1 ES1: pooled Reading note bar middle 44% ‘somewhat favour’ ‘strongly far 12 9% none words attitude against’ ‘neither favour against’) Levels however ES2 displays ‘mean support’ change exclude construal notion marginally (to 66 9%) excluded ES2: Mean 38%; (imaginary) series ‘votes’ French 38% votes 55% Please ‘vote’ including popular Intuitively emerges mean richer mature well-established poorer Hungary) hardest sample: Ireland) (70% replacement) interestingly fine-grained what here characteristics interact individual-level determinants unsurprising observation towards initiative More surprising finding purpose attracts explored academic publications Potential predict vote cast Obviously cautious deriving ‘predicted votes’ method provides so ES3 predicted supranational bars capture voters stands Sharing’) declared assume ‘neutral’ answers (‘neither voting forced split proportional camps solid horizontal lines assuming turn top upper ES3: Predicted Vote Sample Packages Pooled (13 MOST POPULAR: Must train/educate Redist rich-to-poor No costs admin LEAST redist LOW FLOOR: HIGH FLOOR BUT NO REDIST : 0.5 % WITH DOMEST IN&BTWN Some btwn cntry focuses interesting theory: (starting graph) ‘most popular’ second ‘least clearly viable projects 80% excluding neutrals) where assistance having anything majority) Its popularity fact remaining four represent mixes roughly ascending character As descriptions it’s clear unemployed; (rather European) level; required Hence keep constant along generosity: subsidizes up months); redistribution: allow contrast tolerates redistribution; taxation: everybody (by 1%) Table E1 summarizes & REDISTRIBUTION DOMESTIC AND BETWEEN-COUNTRY Features (possibly) D1 D2 educate train D3 tolerant: D4 your pays D5 D6 Across quite Europeans tending particularly within through progressive allowing facility 65% ‘neutrals’ just 50% neutrals above threshold assumes models voter replacement wages tolerance feature variant explained section (cf supra): impose it; third ‘between- imposes understood conform principle ‘in need’ always deserve term ‘Need’ being protecting principled rationale Political decision-making Council country- patterns ES4: Country HIGHER IN-CNTRY buy explain why Italy) graph Italian surpasses 75% GENEROSITY adding hardly cast: reveals deviate Space forbids interactions programs (modestly) Additionally enthusiastic (compared across-the-board modest programme) applies marked Finally compared substantially And cross-country include course predictable Euro-zone economy debtor creditor status comports earlier suggesting divided nationally take-home enhances reduces depends (France Finland) distributive matter decided jointly intrinsic pro’s con’s examination nevertheless pointers policy-makers: population; offer); discuss) support; transfers; activation; Section Automatic supporting effective demand hits stabilisers; (without pretesting) highlights Depending potentially proceeded (we systems; to: 7. options); 8. attached (2 9. possibility 10. 11. 12. options) options: Box protect residents facing loss Doing manifest solidary construed altruistic members thin project motivated indemnifying risks; conceived appeals self-interest narrow nutshell hotly debated rehearse inform engage validity underlying starting test noted advocates sometimes table argument: embodied legitimacy; rebalances cooperation shed Structure briefly rehearses implement develop special reference useful covers full description elaborates challenges presents overview concludes reader skip Sections constraints prevent reading entire key completion EMU insight gained prominence nearly unions’ centralize management banks Historically exception now gradually developing driven mutual progress Banking Next Capital Market latest publication wit protected organization advocated rehearsed successive official reports subject circles joint declaration German 19 June stabilization illustrate See (2017a) pp 25-26 (2017b) 13-16 Commission’s Reflection Paper (European 2017a) sketches function: Investment Protection Scheme; Reinsurance; Rainy Day Fund Communication December 2017b) builds preference (an protection scheme) proposes “a stabilisation function could quick help maintain event asymmetric typically filling financing gap pre-existing pipelines and/or skills upgrading ” Importantly emphasizes “[T]riggering activated automatically rapidly pre-defined parameters negative deviation trend) “[t]he constructed same probability contribute consistently correspond others (2017a Carnot et al (2017) Lenaerts (2015) Spath (2016) Oksanen Brandolini Strauss Dullien (2014) Gros Andor happenstance downturn stabiliser par excellence Existing opt downright centralisation (like historically Canada Germany) convergence organisation degree reinsurance really US decentralisation insurance) rational behaviour reasons pooling resilience broadly here: shock symmetric origin differently background advantage face Risk-pooling interregional broad consensus economically politically legitimate organizes able business cycles partly synchronized borrowing smoothed here; synchronization cycle (simply put witness symmetry asymmetry combined) completely added value se externality; properly insures itself helps neighbours (as vaccinate themselves infectious diseases) Because externality dispose Simultaneously insufficient sub-optimal provision promoted supported (think again vaccination authorities made compulsory) effectiveness cluster principles: sufficiently benefits; rates schemes; segmentation leaves force poorly insured unemployment; proliferation employment relations integrated insurance; individuals; constitution buffers work bad shared De Grauwe Yi; (2017); ‘stability-supporting’ subsidization authorities) Conversely plausible argue stability-supporting fortiori imperative were equipped address above): agree other’s exchange guarantee functions adequately Wrapping latter former At sure relationship published motivates (un)employment (which cf footnote …) provided 2.1. Genuine consortium Centre Studies (CEPS) examined 18 14 ‘genuine’ ‘equivalent’ types operate genuine Europeanise extent: define (minimum) replace transferred collected employers employees Alternatively remain ‘re-insure’ providing difficult accommodate adequate counter-cyclical sponsored examine synthesis see CEPS-led ‘re- throughout use re- occur Countries visible tangible proof counterargument centralized decisions contradict widely subsidiarity From technical point harmonizing partially) replaced underestimated Re- easier likely acceptable disbursements normally trigger rate short- beyond threshold) objective cyclical movement flexibility 15 short CEPS study respects: collection funds running theoretically sound recognizes reflect well complexities multi-tiered 16 context perfectly conceivable accompanied uniformity upward Such strict continuum distinguished specification (Beblavy 2017 17) Europeanisation unemployment-related multifaceted explicit theoretical simplistic multitude choices) abstract grasp impacts upon engineer undesirable (see below text 2017) Luigjes Fischer differentiating administration’ ‘national countries’ comply standards ‘Europeanisation’ Respondents’ reactions aspects influenced priori sharing: pull direction (against Europeanisation) institutional 1) opposite minimize hazard) 2.2. Debt studied partners differentiated dimensions:17 short-term imbalances add countries; varied duration EU-funded capping criteria; limit consequences scheme; certain net-beneficiaries (i accumulated net-contributors dynamically link operates mainly device already wrote introductory not) Adding overly (Respondents functioning 17 variability) works captures parameter: during floor: simplify strictly tied together: presuppose describes cashes read combined model’ transfer receives defined eligible inhabitants applied average covered obliged ratio form de facto agreed Appendix OECD data sample) admits between; tight coupling minimal concepts react absence ‘quality’ pursued precaution adopted persons (these demands Independently orient relationships pure demanding reciprocity pay-ins pay- outs) deliberate (from 1: Solidarity fits broader range scope solidarity’ ‘solidarity’ stake project? Let understanding resources compensating (disadvantageous) circumstances hold responsible conceptually distinguished: Pure compensate foreseen reasonably calculated homogeneous group (a identical profiles) practical profiles cashed mechanism contribution span ‘net beneficiaries’ contributors’ money gains) Insurance definition future takes (deliberate) aware prime redistributes (inter alia) talented less-talented individuals: compensates part) disadvantage talent; follows talent motivation disposition often ‘demanding’ Well-organised readily enlightened self-interest: expectation wins So get mixed creates cement definitions extended nation depending (unforeseen known differ) carefully objections attenuate interwoven (on purpose) Individual occurs actor adapts his behaviour; ‘institutional’ collective government) Redistribution justified ‘under control’ constitute linked choices write principle’ observable available policy) Nevertheless especially sustainability ‘insurance’ ‘institutional hazard’ electorates (especially convinced pool better off oriented Moral lead unwanted Mechanisms militate ‘moral discusses normative theories justice 2.3. Impact subsection introduced challenge assess introduce reconnect discussed previous subsection: Two papers points paper corresponds closely logic: profile’ approximates uniform profile There difference topic: earmarking generated (earmarking ‘fund’ States) (neither topic) ‘qualitative’ wish discuss requirements: ‘functional’ necessity ‘give take’ Although simulated intended simulation years: authors deem sustainable astute (additional) ‘pay’ (over term) clever technicalities let choose ‘reciprocity’ tolerated EU-UI effectively UI instrument Annex Ii (4): acts budgets instantiate Suppose suppose adopt zero: cater pay; earmarked) positions cancel perspective: complicated scheme’s cases ceteris paribus21 (part the) improvement (redistributive frequent hence strong correction mechanism): contributor paribus 22 scenario beneficiary dynamic illustrated ‘common floor’ stabilizing effects decomposing effect introduction steps step harmonize every year finance surpluses neutral 21 Ceteris except categories government achieved acting alone introducing wide period (2000-2013) fully back otherwise): simulations worse after creation dual supplementary (Eurozone- wide) 24 baseline significantly coverage25) gross earnings yearly minus received 19-0 39% GDP Latvia largest 36% 54% cap country’s median overlap contains (A) (B) calculation scenario’s beneficiaries) (columns A’ B’) affect reads direct stay (footnote corroborates possibilities 25 radical Southern Eastern Greece Malta Slovakia 2000-2013 Dolls) 15% ppt B’ 74 31 78 42 41 06 62 68 02 63 45 89 47 26 56 94 43 95 29 48 27 37 Own calculations Tables Legend: income) (up person of: A: 50%; covered; cap; B: months; B’: idem balance budget 2000-2013: Example column (Table 3) NAT-UI 4) + push 27% variant) 48% 29% 87% highly difficulty aims correct) dependent assumptions (ranging 70%); maximal crude alternatives simplicity happen are: (1% (extra) sustain ‘socio-tropic’ aggregate ‘cosmopolitan’ independently live) entertain socio-tropic ‘efforts’ similar ‘financial reciprocity’) unless redistribute countries: ‘effort’ demanded ‘reciprocity’) casu holds separated identify causal links several contributions: complete presentation) subset Spanish respondent: experiment); allowed; free lunch people) he thinks 70%; systematically impossible qualify external: arises treatment 2.4. Membership participation non- non-participation Central-European Euro area manageable EMU) suggests postulated compulsory ‘undersell’ (implicitly) appeal beneficial (countries becoming policies) 2.5. Synthesis relating Column indicates differ; formulated explains experiment; possibilities: ‘left open’: dimension; point’: answer constitutes point’ part’: 2: translation Dimension Left experiment? Comments Is not? open: non-Eurozone Can debt? benefits? Fixed point: floor) via scheme? mentions avoids reduce understand covered? starts position Or unemployment- implied Moving part: implicitly premised Different regulation support? presupposes setting mind country? ii iii countries;) Are requirements; requirements) w r t obligations (next unemployed)? conditions; presumably concerns: unconditional (concern policies); human capital taxation? increasing rich) possibly (domestic) (due stabilization)? hazard)? Positive Institutional dealt indirectly rows Table) (related inputs) outputs) 3.1. population: selected record coverage; (Poland approximately 1500 reached Excluding pre-testing involved (20440 internationally renowned contracted field (after two-tier bidding competition) maintains established panels relies lacks proprietary demographic quotas gender NUTS1 randomly-drawn adheres Accordingly close diverging 2% category Even farthest apart 4% demographics comparable leading surveys Social Survey (ESS) 3.2. reconcile accessibility laymen: jobless like hear programme financed pages you You Then (randomly combinations) formulating questions) foresee amounts months) 3: Overview (respondents answers) need? – fulfil offers May Yes while 4: insurance? long-run: 5: Who administer programme? Governments 6: people? After “Which prefer?” 2); “How 1?” (answer 1-5 Likert scale); 2?” answered assessed “Think showed decision?” against) Conjoint analyse stated experiments usually attributes By drawing content prepared researcher analysist estimate separately marketing recently recognised science earliest applications Bechtel Scheve (2013) asses hypothetical international climate agreements couple differed amongst households monthly emissions committed reach later Hainmueller Hopkins Yamamoto researchers differing formally lay down formal prove forward practically testable inferential exemplarily investigations immigrant candidate American candidates profession plans Closer topic interest Margalit bailouts Germans Their cost (negative) lesser burdens imposed receiving demonstrate designs bailout measures counted Research Gallego Marx (2018) great deal multidimensional relates importance attributed groups substantial suggested prior Schumacher smaller found socioeconomic changed entirely absent (Gallego left- wing opposed right-wing 3.3. says assigns once pairwise comparisons) weakly inconsistent; affects comes list situation judgements 27One inconsistent: ‘preference’ ‘support’ question; ‘tactically’ respondents; kept 8% 3.4. Inconsistent ‘internal consistency’: type: purposeful insurance’) exceeds increase; allowed: ‘inconsistent’ (gross) Tax-Benefit Model net-gross underestimation arise overestimate another inconsistency: benefits) improvements increases; ‘zero’ (much) fair approximation Prima consistency between- allowed) Net (OECD) Gross 55 INCONS 59 (INCONS) 65 34 75 36 qualified inferences establishing randomization marginal influence (Hainmueller 2014) consistencies distinguishing assumptions) highlighting Figures 28 EU-wide predisposition borders various orientation congenial belonging category; helped inspire conjoint- Wehrhöfer uses (different) experimental methods 4.1. initiatives produces considerable intra-EU depend heavily ex post ante?) Unsurprisingly variation: expectations involvement involves sacrifice stream Ferrera Pellegata concerning (amongst others) debt-stricken fight poverty etcetera 77 7% agree’ statement: “The equip enough sudden rise rates” (Ferrera 29) Approval signal solidarity: approval respectively 91 0% 64 Stoeckel Gerhards Genschel Hemerijck (20182108) Lahusen Grasso Kamm Meuleman (2018a b c) Hooghe Verhaegen Kleider (2009) FR GE IT PL ES SE (2018 Yearbook ETUI) “there cultural predispositions Caring meet critic’s eyes ”30 elderly “the services governments” 30 believe 69 expect Despite widespread 67 “EU-wide poor” neatly aligned: EU-level comparatively driver sizeable cross-national Nordic few expenditure agent (Meuleman 10) “altogether display politicians scientists presumed “[t]his (welfare solidarity) reduction wealth inequalities (territorial (p 30) 77% EU” (Gerhards 14-15) 82% governments’ 16) studied32 highest Mediterranean Sweden Everywhere reflection: “Obviously treated care snapshots… volatile Moreover saliency responses register contingent ‘value expressions’ indicative stable internalised limitations overrated easily plastic amenable cuing elites issue-framing discourse assumed expressions devoid commitments SP 86 90 3% 32 consists CY GR PT HU SK IE NL AT rosy picture: “[P]ublic kinds EU-internal moderate” 259) currently difficulties paying debts disagree measure?” (Lahusen Contrary obtained debt-ridden 33 “In supporters outweigh opponents slightly (41% vs 30%); indecision (uncertainty highlighted below) biggest located (66% 16% opponents) (64% 11%) leans helping side (39% 20%) undecided (42%) United Kingdom bigger 28% 41% 33% 34% findings giving stress 258 Further conditional privilege trouble unconditionally minority testifies duty subscribes fairness trustworthiness deservingness 260 261) square Pellegata; varies (solidarity what?) how?) whom whom?) publics indebted “During Eurocrisis adoption statements closest Financial …be granted name soft loans “all boat”; repayment reform risk; offered voluntarily interest; instead asking foreign taxpayers; task 11) (partially) overlapping samples posed Pellegata’s Agree Disagree Granted Soft-loans Conditionality 44 35 39 DK UK Switzerland uncertain uncertainty opens space leadership; emphasis leadership conclude underscore according hand; “Do aid suffering X?” “unsustainable debt” “very unemployment” “large numbers refugees” “national disaster” (Genschel strongest low) natural disaster lowest excessive refugee inflows ranges extremes statement ‘don’t know’) instruments ante precautionary improvisation) “an emergency accessed faces sort” 5) little rankings variance Great Britain case-by-case Lithuania stark divide self- perceived (Denmark UK) self-perceived net-recipients (Greece Spain) somewhere sobering conclusions: “Respondents net-contributor solidarity; net-recipient favour” 6) 2009) Interestingly correlates net-contributory net-beneficiary net-contributor/net-beneficiary Hemerijck’s prompts ‘paying’ ‘receiving’ end? assigned versions “Are personally Dutch inclined military attack brief country-level ‘ex fund’ co-nationals Individuals discriminate foreigners Overall willingness willing boundaries largely intact prospects promising ‘personal sacrifice’ he/she contributing ‘Solidarity’ participants disposal levy fears integration (Baute 2018a) ‘social Europe’ 2018b 2018c) analyzing Values Study 2008 EU28 fear Furthermore explaining generalized concretely policy: security; answer? (2018b) one-dimensional construct; five Europe’: supra-national policy; rights mobile Europeans; harmonization interpersonal Belgian distinct attitudinal interrelated factor Pareto Barr 2012) member-state primary whereas component 2018b) ‘spill over’ Europe’) obstacle perceive competing governance domain) supportive (2018c) intrusive regulations health safety work; ‘member funds) welfare) spillover basic ‘welfare critique’ research) stronger attractive (because attracted Europe) secondly Applying classification ‘less intrusive’ (they policies; variants); (versus governments) subtle ‘intrusive’ approaches 4.2. emphasize ‘fundamental’ ‘contingent’ Whereas rejection embrace shift altered Germany: Using burden-sharing rescue building Qua programmatic factorial one-off reaction situation) unforeseeable crises?” most: citizens? examining policy-oriented gain readiness Benefit Scheme Sovereign Insolvency Procedure) randomized 57% 18% clear-cut striking probably radically start frame “A euro resilient supposed suffer adverse labor proponents say: absorb stabilize currency All control counterargument: disadvantages respects counterarguments: “don’t markets anymore”) Compared Dolls-Wehrhöfer presenting perform runs moment Also pro- contra-arguments unemployed) neutral: benefits…” contrary namely securing implicit evoke resulting simpler qua formulation solutions mentioning treatment) gauge acceptance nuance unspecified: pre-conceptions elements parallels cleavages (German) incomes; reveal meaningful harbor robustly-stable While realistic That appear thirteen polities traction fiscal-policy tends shall clarify primarily graphical summaries visualize keeping reporting specialists visual representation modeling estimation relegate presentation discussion specialized Appendices encourage appraise confidence intervals around estimates; visually significance Focusing (Section broadest roughest metrics descriptive aggregates smooth 2) systematic stage within-country fourth social-policy fifth finally focusing toward 5.1. General Opposition preliminary reckoning risk- smoothing-over eschew averaged hundreds permutations valuations gave pairings (six all) “rejected” pairing Recall favored principal inference neutrality opposition) greater summary statistics Based categorical ratings (categorical) varying (strongly rated 266 dispersal 07) binary transformation ranking (binary) 1=somewhat 0=somewhat percent “somewhat” “strongly” Reject (1=somewhat oppose; missing=neutral) 76 sampled Variable: Obs Std Dev Min Max 117846 074 456 498 758 428 Chose Package 500 D1: 333 471 D2: educ /train D3: 334 D4: Long-term D5: Level 499 501 D6: Household 99186 014 719 Low 219 413 Unemployed 116124 068 252 Female 117606 512 Age 124 792 Attention Check 810 392 Internal 174 looking expressing termed “fundamental support” total; partitions six) Note saw 20-plus half (full Share favoured considers measure positioning: fundamentally regardless Nearly worthy 7%); 4%); 4%) polluted lunches’ seeing packages) percentages Less 30% rejected contained favoured) snapshot 1= 0=being opposing count ‘voting calculate percentage) ranging Below sources portrait Northern Western populations counterparts Central East country) (See A1 A2) 5.2. Dimensions descriptive-statistic receive? aggregated (D1-D6) Report; abbreviations italics): subsidization); support); (EU administration); comply) dimension) aggregation naked eye Generosity Training-education educ/training Between-country Taxation Countriies Poor Taxes Rich Activation requirement (Job search) administers weekly 5-10 immediately full- depart examples suffice though still line wealthy West (Figure 8) Austrian exceptions concentrated preferring familiar governmental capacities conditionality Finnish explanations (Generosity) (Requirement scheme’s /training 7: (Between-country Redistribution) th ric 8: (tax ri 9: (level administration) 10: (activation requirement) Inferential Variation fitting valuations: respondent; packages; unit package-pairing-respondent- specifications data: analyses (categorical binary) rating scores 1=strongly 5=strongly favour); Not surprisingly variables correlated (=1) (=0) covariance 52 components germane estimations per-package package: seven controls M1 M2 OLS estimator errors clustered (recalling obvious clustering tracking sees considers) simplest dimension-based plus (1=passed 0=failed) (0-3 ratings) failing (19% respondents) (that choosing “rejected”) 40 dummies mitigate heteroskedasticity M3 repeats throws away gradations eases interpretation counterfactuals M4 redress effects: intercept three-level multilevel respondent-packages embedded variable maximum likelihood estimators M5 ordered logit otherwise M6 random-intercept three-levels M7 rank-ordered grouped ranked within-respondent empirical summarized corroboration things entail: (D1); (D2); (not ones) (D3); (D4); (D5); (always) coefficients multi-level Before turning worth noting pass (visible M1) (choosing (there Among questionnaire weights yielding virtually corroborate valuation) wealthier (results shown) plots Average Marginal Component Effects (AMCEs) attribute passing chosen 95% explanatory factors experimentally derived orthogonal AMCEs estimated regression (excluding correlation 2014; decreased chance AMCE 11: Marginal-Component Effect (AMCE) Attributes 05 separate here) clarifies size influences axis capturing predictor 12% (70%) (40%) second-most influential labour-market pose bears (modest amount) pushed unpopular appears substantive slight (albeit statistically models) (either A1’s dummies) spurred oddly Estonians Finns unlike substantively embracing (interestingly join plea) 12: edu corroborated transformations (binary)) A2 pronounced (Support faced yields reported 12’s grey characteristic measured equal: almost rate; administration; (job 13: 5.3. clarifying pull-together mix respondents? Answering tedious Instead prominent intuition viability attempt Predicting guess-work Figure’s counterfactual taking predicting “vote” sampling Oppose (based rating- measure) “neutral” ignored evenly camps) intervals) shares Of estimates unlikely home election day anti-EURS European-wide referendum alter actually (M2 A1)– eventuality low-floor purposes 14: modal “most popular” “least purely involve problematic “free price Still lower-floor upper-ceiling benchmarks Little EU-administered lunch” incur steadily trade-offs surpass remit research; implausible raises modestly) promises level); (focusing rates); (where so); redistribution) short-cuts denote IN BETWEEN COUNTRIES 1%-tax entailing (potentially) modestly enjoys “generous” stringent assumption plebiscite Irish (particularly) cross-nationally 15: 5.4. Country-level Characteristics scrutiny laid bare articulated per-country well-known macro-political- shape per-dimension package-based conserve dimension-specific marginal-component summarize (relative non-voting) macro-level parameter (details A19 Appendix) 13-country cross base cross-level comparison ‘low’ ‘high’ 10th percentile 90th ‘high; standardized graphs interaction left-hand interested settings right-hand high-unemployment 16: Rates IN-CNTRRYE DIST IN-CNTRYRE comport low-unemployment high- panels) move (even) Second moderating capita EU-28 parity PPP normalization) moves low-GDP high-GDP (compare straight-forward story interpreting peculiar reconsider GDP: 182% ‘richest’ (followed Denmark) dubious doubt accounting proxy 17: Final Consumption Expenditure final consumption correct anomaly ‘Final Expenditure’ reliable account-based indicator taken (again PPP-basis) 106% Denmark’s 120% average) starker terms) wealthiest ‘poorest’ final repeat high-final markedly (counterfactually) rightmost panel) Either (though favor) Third national-level moderates unemployment-insurance (UI) European-level expenditures GDP) 2015 take-up visibility higher- 18: measure: (this Calculator; singles) paints picture gets replacement-rate dramatically ‘increase’ settings) putting 5.5. characteristics: Socio-economic Status Attitudes dampen intensify particular: low-income low-education favor risk: ‘low income’ EU-SILC data) ‘higher median; secondary education; ‘unemployed’ macro- 19: suggest uneven implications (upper panel)44 right insecure (low education) skews educated Indeed appreciably moderate yield retired market) opposite: dislocated prevails approximating deciles SILC vintage convert modified equivalence scale 57 73 influencing measures: (national) redistribution45 (left-hand belief look work46 (right-hand (than ordering: regressive 20: Attitudes: Government Beliefs About don’t 20’s Those believing low- essentially slothful exploitative (believing don’t work) reflects unclear statements: levels” Answers scaled (Strongly / Somewhat Strongly “I answer” “Most job” “Strongly agree” disagree” reaffirm appreciable targets trusting distrusting contemporary simple: ones skewed judgments 21: Trust Leaders 49 together A3 “personally distrust Union”; (Very Very distrust) A3-A10A4-A18 moderated 5.6. Comparison literature optimistic 2018) pessimistic ‘sobering’ domain-specific (our debt- stricken unemployment-stricken countries); domain-specificity one-sided performant worries legitimately doing strikingly (much complementary insights multidimensionality confirm revealed research: resonates sought cross-section Pulling 1-4 articulates garner undergird policymaking predicts practitioner policy-making audience activation;50 unimportant policymakers; contradiction propositions diverge indicated refining encompasses near 50 insurance-based protective compiles supplemental tables relevance commentary clarification report’s discussion: supplementing underlie predictions companion informing A4-A10 welfare-state supplements A11-A18 A1: Graphs A2: (baseline= wage) D1=60% 190*** 220*** 088*** 221*** 373*** 398*** 321*** (0 007) 009) 004) 021) 016) 013) D1=70% 239*** 281*** 119*** 282*** 482*** 515*** 404*** 008) 010) 032) 017) (baseline conditions) D2=country education/training 139*** 156*** 071*** 157*** 277*** 297*** 234*** 006) 003) 011) (baseline=countries in) D3=countries 016* 020* 009* 020 038* 041* 041** D3=poor 022** 024** 010* 025 045** 051** 047*** 023) 015) (baseline=No taxation) D4=0 -0 123*** 134*** 055*** 228*** 244*** 187*** D4=1 066*** 026*** 109*** 118*** 096*** (baseline=European administered) D5=administered 054*** 021*** 054* 087*** 092*** 065*** (baseline=no D6=must 141*** 165*** 078*** 164*** 288*** 304*** 271*** 044) 125*** 142*** 069*** 142** 249*** 263*** 248*** 005) 047) 060*** 031** 001 034* 047** 018) 024 016** 023 026 039 012) 019) 020) 042* 012 043 063 078* 046) 033) 037) 019* 016 003 007** yes Constant 074*** 155*** 300*** 265*** 014) 108) 048) 172) R-squared 046 036 N 78348 DV M4-M7: (categorical): against; 2=somewhat 3=neither favour; 4=somewhat M3: (binary): 0=neutral M1-M3: (6 respondent) inconsistency; dummies; M4: respondent-package M5-6: Maximum (ordered respectively) M7: Rank-ordered Right-hand p<0 * ** 01 *** (Chose M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 107*** 108*** 116*** 444*** 233*** 136*** 145*** 558*** 348*** 285*** 095*** 357*** 222*** 177*** 015*** 013** 061*** 038*** 030*** 017*** 016*** 067*** 042*** 033*** 246*** 153*** 121*** 032*** 037*** 132*** 082*** 063*** 028*** 029*** 073*** 058*** 093*** 100*** 385*** 240*** 196*** 091*** 089*** 366*** (0=pass; 1=fail) 000* 001* 000) 320*** 311*** 001) 739*** 460*** 022) 033 032 038 95454 models: 0=didn’t pairing; 1=chose (M7-M9): Models weights; passed (M10-M12): (logit probit logit) M7-M9 A3: Requirement) A4: Rate A5: A6: A7: A8: Replacement A9: ECD Distress Index EUBS A10: recipient/contributor A11: Country-specific Income A12: A13: Education (lower=no secondary; higher=more school) A14: A15: Attitude A16: A17: Worry Job Loss A18: A19: GPD Fin Cons Exp Gini coefficient countr 2012 100 107 105 115 131 127 120 108 110 117 116 114 106 109 126 119 104 102 112 79 111 103 113 123 118 98 133 182 165 96 Netherlan 140 134 128 70 158 92 93 Source Eurostat Co Data aver Chain volumes 2005=10 2016 unavailabi Public Eligibility criteria Repeated Total 60 ALMP: Availability s monitorin Sanctions 2008-2016 2014 09 00 08 72 99 58 71 88 825 735 155 61 04 82 51 Netherland 07 03 495 685 Langenbucher G ca sEU28 percenta GD unavailabilit unavailability exludes L Basic strengthening EMU’s Europe’s recovery Intereconomics 49(4) 184– 189 (2012) Economics Oxford: Oxford Press S Abts K Swyngedouw M (2018a) threat security: Euroscepticism? Politics 19(2) 209- 232 Measuring Europe: Indicators 137(1) 353-378 Spillover obstacle? Journal Advance DOI: 1017/S0047279418000314 Feasibility Added Value Brussels: Retrieved from: https://www ceps eu/system/files/EUBS%20final pdf Marconi Maselli I ahead eu/publications/european-unemployment-benefits- scheme-rationale-and-challenges-ahead F Mass global Proceedings Academy Sciences America 110(34) 13763-68 J 56(4) 864–886 Carta D’Amuri unemployment-based absorber Common 54(5) 1123–1141 compensation 10(4) 427-455 Kizior Mourre Fiscal Euro-Area: (CEB Working 17/025) https://dipot ulb ac be/dspace/bitstream/2013/259556/3/wp17025 P Ji Boom Busts Governance C Barnard Baere (Eds Crisis (pp 160-191) Cambridge: Cambridge Area Reforms: Evidence Randomized Experiment (CESifo 7141) Fuest Neumann D Peichl area? microdata International Tax Finance 273-309 Stability Gütersloh: Bertelsmann-Stiftung Deepening Economic (COM(2017) 291) https://ec europa eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/reflection-paper-emu_en New framework Parliament Bank 822 final) eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/com_822_0 Union: piece in: Vanhercke Ghailani Sabato Play ETUI/OSE Be Reconciled? Citizens’ View Integration Milan: REScEU centroeinaudi it/images/locandine/REScEU_Mass_survey_results_SHORT_VE RSION Federal-State Partnership: Relevance Reflections (IZA 129 Multi-dimensional Preferences Labour 24(7) 1027-1047 (Policy Brief School Transnational (EUI) Issue 2018/01 Lengfeld H Ignácz Kley Priem Strong Solidarity? (BSSE (Berlin Sociology February) Häuberer Do state? comparative 31(6) 677-700 Eurozone? Deductible 199–203 T Causal Inference Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices Stated Preference Experiments Analysis 22(1) 1–30 Uses legitimacy 120-139) 120-139 Left-wing unwilling redistribution? Explaining (EUI MWP 2016/17) Solaz Elsas E Practising preach: cosmopolitanism promotes 25(12) 1759-1778 Boundaries Solidarity: Policies Unpublished manuscript Comparative Assessment Discussion Responses Times 253-281) Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan Against Immigration Establishment? Scandinavian Vol 41(3) 263-282 Oorschot W Delespaul Gugushvili Laenen Roosma Rossetti Past Present Future Topline Round Retreived europeansocialsurvey org/about/singlenew html?a=/about/news/essnews0054 html Smoothing Asymmetric Shocks Area: Simple Proposal Dealing Mistrust 5817 March 2016) area: table? Promises (Jacques Delors Institute Paper(166) 1-26 Mobilizing costly policies: party cues 56(2) 446-461 R history Benefits APPAM Conference Inequalities: Addressing Growing Challenge Policymakers Worldwide London 13-14 eight Reduction Hazard: Vaccination Metaphor 52(3) 154-159 3-46) identity? 16(5) 871–904

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La pauvreté et la déprivation des enfants en Belgique Comparaison facteurs de risque dans les trois Régions pays voisins COLOPHON TITRE Deze publicatie bestaat in het Nederlands onder titel : Armoede deprivatie bij Belgische kinderen Een vergelijking van risicofactoren drie Gewesten buurlanden Une édition Fondation Roi Baudouin Rue Brederode 21 1000 Bruxelles AUTEURS Anne-Catherine Guio (LISER – Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research) Frank Vandenbroucke (Université d’Amsterdam) avec le soutien du réseau Net-SILC3 COORDINATION POUR LA FONDATION ROI BAUDOUIN Françoise Pissart Directrice Anne-Françoise Genel Coordinateur projet senior Saida Sakali Nathalie Troupée Collaborateur gestion connaissance Ann Vasseur Programme management CONCEPTION GRAPHIQUE Salutpublic MISE EN PAGE TiltFactory PRINT ON DEMAND Manufast-ABP asbl une entreprise travail adapté Cette publication peut être téléchargée gratuitement sur notre site www kbs-frb be version imprimée cette électronique commandée (gratuitement) DÉPÔT LÉGAL D/2848/2018/28 NUMÉRO DE COMMANDE 3617 Décembre 2018 Avec Loterie Nationale TABLE DES MATIÈRES Colophon 4 Avant-propos 7 Synthèse 9 Samenvatting 13 1. Introduction 17 2. Vue générale belges comparaison l’UE 18 3. Facteurs 27 3.1. Cadre théorique 3.2. Résultats empiriques 30 4. Modélisation 31 5. Réflexions recommandations pour pouvoir politique 37 Références 49 Annexe 1: liste abréviations 51 AVANT-PROPOS Qui ignore encore chiffres effarants aujourd’hui ? Cela fait presqu’une décennie que ces données sont régulièrement portées à l’attention décideurs grand public force marteler mêmes pourcentages (40% 25% 15% respectivement Wallonie Flandre) d’un affaiblissement l’indignation collective voire d’une résignation Faut-il rappeler l’enjeu est taille C’est évidence puisqu’il s’agit nos il l’avenir société tout entière Les conditions vie précaires empêchent se développer harmonieusement effets ce mauvais départ risquent aussi faire sentir très long terme En revanche (et positif) améliorer investir mesures qui favorisent leur développement dès plus jeune âge c’est rompre fatalisme prédiction statistique selon laquelle un enfant pauvre a toutes chances devenir adulte raison insiste nécessité ambitieuse faveur situation leurs familles Car effet n’est pas option Il faut sans cesse chercher renouveler manière mobiliser acteurs Poser autre regard statistiques motivé publier étude D’emblée nous tenons remercier deux auteurs (professeur l’Université (LISER-Luxembourg NET-SILC3 ils ont analysé plusieurs européens Ils efforcés comprendre différences entre ses mais Flandre proposé d’analyse complémentaire espérant qu’elle diffuserait ‘efficace’ possible Analyser indices comparer ne livre tableau réjouissant évoqués ci-dessus Néanmoins l’espérons mobilisateur raisons principales on quitte l’abstraction concept ‘seuil pauvreté’ approcher près vécu enfants; indicateurs portent eux germes l’action car évoquent directement leviers qu’il convient d’actionner Approcher révèle failles indignes Ainsi par exemple trop d’enfants privés vacances (33%) loisirs réguliers (19 8%) quelques habits neufs (15 7%) livres (10%) d’internet etc ; taux comparable celui Croatie Malte Pologne Royaume-Uni; même où parmi bas d’Europe 41% vivant ménages emploi considérés comme étant déprivés chercheurs n’ont voulu limiter contribution analyse précise chiffrées remis rapport contenant y intégrant nuances éléments complémentaires suggérés membres comité composé spécialistes terrain Ces remises font l’objet dernière partie montrent qu’aucun acteur aucun niveau n’y arrivera seul pauvres s’améliorera significativement combinaison politiques sociales fiscales matière petite enfance d’éducation d’extrascolaire logement formation d’emploi soit nombre domaines compétence nécessitent vision soutenue tous pouvoirs publics coordonnée local Si voulons qu’une prête véritable lutte contre sensibilisée problématique voie celle-ci moins conséquence choix individuels résultat processus sociétaux mécanismes d’exclusion bien précis À cet investissement sera extrêmement ‘rentable’ seulement défavorisés eux-mêmes tient remarquable scientifique ainsi apport aux Le soumet présent diverses composantes belge remercie personnes ci-dessous avis suggestions • Séverine Acerbis Badje Antoine Borighem ONE – Direction Études Stratégies De Bleeckere Vlaamse Overheid Departement Onderwijs Vorming Strategische Beleidsondersteuning Valérie Desomer Fédération CPAS wallons Union Villes Communes organisationnelle opérationnelle David Vaal Netwerk tegen armoede François Ghesquière Recherche Évaluation IWEPS Anne Giacomelli l’Enseignement Supérieur Catholique FédESuC Kathy Jacobs Kind & Gezin Afdeling Preventieve Gezinsondersteuning Janssen Réseau wallon Fanny Laurent Forum-Bruxelles inégalités Sarah Luyten Observatoriumvoor Gezondheiden Welzijnvan Brussel-Hoofdstad Christiane Malcorps Solvay Isabelle Martijn POD Maatschappelijke integratie Florence Pirard ULg Faculté Psychologie Sciences l’Éducation Département Tine Rommens SYNTHÈSE monétaire mesure relative dépend revenu chaque considérées dont inférieur 60% médian national utilisent indicateur afin d’étudier ‘absolues’ Cet difficultés quotidiennes basant non l’accès ensemble dix-sept items nécessaires Europe l’enfant mange-t-il fruits légumes jour Invite-t-il parfois amis maison Peut-il participer excursions fêtes scolaires Vit-il correctement chauffé Part-il au semaine an On considère qu’un lorsqu’il privé d’au Plus d’items manquants élevé sévère présente utilise nouvel agréé européen mars (globalement Région) d’autres Elle d’environ similaire France supérieur autres Mais quand prend seuil observe l’écart creuse proches 12% quatre alors proportion situe 9% Pays-Bas Allemagne 2% moyenne recouvre fortes disparités 29% 22% 8% Dans classement groupe performants Région bruxelloise occupe position extrême formes sévères classe intermédiaire Royaume-Uni également sévérité L’étude principalement liés ressources ménage (le disponible l’emploi l’endettement ) besoins (les coûts santé composition démographique vivre famille monoparentale agit tant coûts) L’impact différentes variables diffère fortement l’autre riches l’impact relatif liées besoins/coûts fort généralement donc socioéconomique population pourcentage différent variable l’absence exerce impact résultats illustrent fois l’on compte individuelles (p ex ménage) richesse continue avoir signifie groupes vulnérables présentant caractéristiques similaires mieux protégés nationale interprétée approximation certaines mesurées modèle patrimoine l’aide nature qualité l’accessibilité financière systèmes garde transport réelles auxquels face L’analyse permet distinguer similitudes principal déterminant euro supplémentaire protège (quasi) locataire son confronté lourd endettement ou certains souffrent problèmes chroniques augmentent Celle-ci influencée parents particulier doute parce chômage peu qualifiées davantage souffrir périodes fréquentes européenne caractérise élevée Ce constat résulte part importante particulièrement Bruxelles; d’autre dépri- vation attribuent cela plupart transferts sociaux minimums (comme allocations minimum d’intégration sociale exemple) permettent bénéficiaires s’élever au-dessus cas négligeable (41%) malgré non-emploi nettement faible conclusions soulignent d’avoir d’assurer meilleure protection revenus prouve exemples rappellent ratifié Convention Nations Unies Droits l’Enfant implique responsabilité publique claire concernant droits devrait motiver début prochaine législature mise place Gouvernement fédéral gouvernements régionaux communautaires d’ambitieux ‘master plans’ relatifs rôle important locaux plans devraient couvrir large éventail réduisent salariaux travailleurs qualifiés nets investissements l’économie revalorisation remplacement qu’ils constituent adéquate ciblées précarisées cadre réforme familiales transfert extension l’offre logements accru agences immobilières (qui doivent assurer accompagnement qualité) renforcement primes location services d’accueil abordables règles d’accès prioritaire sociaux: (santé culture sports…) accessibles enseignement création d’écoles dites ‘larges’ c -à-d ouvertes communauté locale capables s’attaquer collaboration partenaires alimentaire (en fournissant repas sains complets jour) scolaire organisant elles-mêmes accessible élèves) frais limitant coût matériel activités pédagogiques familles) d’activités extrascolaires… Tout doit s’accompagner proximité démarche proactive jouent crucial mérite d’être soutenu s’investissant peuvent toucher augmenter façon considérable l’efficacité disponibles SAMENVATTING Cijfers over financiële zijn gebaseerd op relatieve metingen hangen af inkomensniveau elk land Mensen wie inkomen lager is dan mediaan worden als ‘arm’ beschouwd dit hebben een andere indicator gebruikt om meer ‘absolute’ verschillen tussen landen te kunnen bestuderen: Die meet dagelijkse problemen Hij niet financieel maar gaat uit toegang tot eenzelfde lijst die men beschouwt noodzakelijk voor kind dat Europa leeft: eet elke dag fruit groenten? Nodigt soms vriendjes thuis? Kan deelnemen aan schooluitstapjes -feestjes? Leeft behoorlijk verwarmde woning? Gaat jaarlijks minstens week met vakantie? Men ervan gedepriveerd gezin zich deze kan veroorloven Hoe hoger aantal waar beschikt hoe ernstiger voorliggende studie nieuwe maart Europees goedgekeurd maken België (als geheel gewest) Europese Ze geeft er ongeveer gedepriveerde leven Dat percentage vergelijkbaar Frankrijk ligt Als drempel wordt gelegd merkt kloof naburige ook groter In vier terwijl Nederland Duitsland 7% Luxemburg slechts bedraagt Achter gemiddelde gaan grote gewesten schuil Zo Brussel mist Wallonië Vlaanderen klassement bevindt groep best presterende neemt Brussels Gewest extreme positie zeer hoog ernstige vormen middengroep Kroatië Malta Polen Verenigd Koninkrijk Maar hier ernstig erg groot analyseert hoofdzakelijk middelen (het beschikbare werk opleiding schuldenlast enz noden (kosten huisvesting gezondheid gezinssamenstelling (leven eenoudergezin heeft zowel kosten) variabelen verschilt sterk rijkste verbonden noden/kosten grootst algemeen minst ontwikkelde Er dus alleen inzake sociaal-economische samenstelling populatie zoals uiteenlopend gezinnen niemand werkt: variabele werken deprivatierisico resultaten laten tevens zien rekening houdt individuele (bv gezinsinkomen) algemene welvaartspeil blijft Dit betekent kwetsbare groepen vergelijkbare kenmerken beter beschermd armste rijkdom geïnterpreteerd proxy bepaalde model rechtstreeks gemeten patrimonium hulp natura elkaar bieden kwaliteit toegankelijkheid onderwijssystemen kinderopvang gezondheidszorg openbaar vervoer Zij allemaal ofwel reële kosten waarmee zij geconfronteerd gelijkenissen Het gezinsinkomen belangrijkste determinant alle significant Vlaanderen: bijkomende beschermt Andere factoren risico verhogen zijn: (nagenoeg) gewerkt woonst huurt kampen zware waarvan leden chronische gezondheidsproblemen Deprivatie beïnvloed door opleidingsni- veau ouders vooral vermoedelijk omdat werkloosheid laaggekwalificeerde mensen twee nog lopen periodes gekenmerkt aandeel zonder vaststelling resultaat factoren: ene kant schrijven toe feit meeste minimumtransfers (zoals werkloos- heidsuitkering leefloon) begunstigden mogelijk boven armoede(risico)drempel geval leeft verwaarlozen ondanks kleiner hun conclusies beleidsaanbevelingen onderstrepen buitenlandse voorbeelden bewijzen tegelijk minder én je betere inkomensbescher- ming biedt VN-Verdrag Rechten geratificeerd Daardoor ons duidelijke publieke verantwoordelijkheid bescherming rechten zou federale regering gewest- gemeenschapsregeringen moeten motiveren vanaf begin volgende legislatuur ambitieus master plan belangrijke rol lokale besturen moet brede waaier domeinen behelzen: werk: fiscale maatregelen loonkosten werknemers verminderen netto verhogen; investeringen economie; levenspeil: vervangingsinkomens uitkeringen herbekeken adequate komen richten kansarme kader hervorming gezinsbijslagen wat nu bevoegdheid gewesten; huisvesting: aanbod woningen uitgebreid ondersteuning huisvestingsmaatschappijen (zij instaan kwalitatieve bijstand); huurpremies versterkt worden; jongste kinderen: investeren opvangdiensten betaalbaar kwaliteitsvol voorrangsregels groepen; openbare diensten voorzieningen: dienstverlening (gezondheid cultuur sport…) zo organiseren ze iedereen toegankelijk is; onderwijs: opzetten scholen openstaan gemeenschap staat samen partners diverse pakken: vlak voeding (elke gezonde complete maaltijden aanbieden) schoolondersteuning (zelf aanbieden leerlingen is) schoolkosten (de materiaal pedagogische activiteiten beperken gezinnen) buitenschoolse activiteiten… alles samengaan netwerking proactieve benadering nabijheidswerk overheden spelen daarin cruciale verdient Nabijheidswerk naar meest zorgen voorzieningen goed INTRODUCTION déterminants utilisant l’indicateur spécifique adopté l’Union Européenne (UE) prolonge analyses économétriques Marlier Verbunt (à paraître) porté l’identification micro macro trente européens1 Notre but l’intérieur structure suit section 2 définit fournit illustrative 3 passe revue tels été mis al économétrique présentés avant conclusion discussion 5 1 (Institute Research-LISER-Luxembourg) Vandebroucke d’Amsterdam-Pays-Bas) largement inspirée article rédigé financé troisième l’EU-SILC (Net-SILC3) subventionné Eurostat tiennent Comité d’accompagnement Magda Meyer Ides Nicaise commentaires utiles uniquement celles Adresse e-mail correspondance anne-catherine guio@liser lu VUE GÉNÉRALE DÉPRIVATION ENFANTS BELGIQUE ET DANS LES RÉGIONS BELGES COMPARAISON AVEC PAYS L’UE fournir informations correctes concrètes présupposés partage sein spécifiques c’est-à-dire basés différer celle telles récoltées 2009 2014 l’ensemble Statistique (EU-SILC EU Statistics income and living conditions) collectées comptant âgé 15 ans via répondant (pas auprès eux-mêmes) Selon protocole l’enquête si déclare qu’au déprivé item garder l’esprit l’étude ceux vivent institution sans-abri squats adultes irrégulière) inclus l’analyse finale proposée (2017) adoptée mesurer compose suivants couvrent aspects matériels Enfant Quelques deuxième main) Deux paires chaussures bonne pointure Fruits Viande poulet poisson équivalent végétarien Livres adaptés l’âge 6. Équipements extérieurs 7. Jeux d’intérieur 8. Activités régulières 9. Célébrations d’occasions spéciales 10. Invitation d’amis venir jouer manger temps 11. Participation 12. Vacances 13. Ménage Remplacement mobilier usé 14. Absence d’arriérés paiement 15. Adultes Accès internet 16. Logement adéquatement 17. voiture usage Seules déprivations dues problème financier vie) comptabilisées l’UE-28 jeu couleurs présentent systématiquement élevés différents orange/rouge) Bulgarie Roumanie contraire faibles vert nordiques Autriche Luxembourg) montre l’image nuancée l’item autrement désavantage bénéficient avantage Au comparés devions inclure (voir ci-dessous) classerait cinq affichant meilleures performances situerait intermédiaires République tchèque Portugal Royaume- Uni serait proche Grèce baltes Slovaquie Serbie souligner basé toute lorsque compare absolues entités contrairement habituellement utilisée étudier Tableau ‘Heat map’ indiquant Population couverts EU-SILC % Chaussures Protéines Internet Fêtes Loisirs Habits Excursions Amis Voiture Arriérés Meubles Suède 0 6 8 Finlande 16 11 Islande 24 20 Danemark 14 Suisse 10 12 25 Slovénie 28 Espagne 34 46 22 29 Chypre 41 40 60 19 Italie 38 Irlande 53 23 36 57 Répub 47 26 35 UE-28 33 32 54 Estonie Lituanie 50 48 39 61 45 Lettonie 42 55 67 Hongrie 52 43 72 Légende Source Calculs base transversales Nous sommes concentrés jusqu’ici pris séparément allons examiner quelle cumulent figure distribution ans) (panel A) (Pays-Bas Luxem- bourg) voir panel B A qu’à (BR) 50% retenu définir enfants) grave atteignent 43% 14% (WA) (VL) 23% 4% utilisé (13%) l’Allemagne (11%) (8%) Cependant fixé (c’est-à-dire déprivation) tandis (2%) Figure Distribution (âgés Panel 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 11+ 12+ 13+ 14+ 15+ 16+ Pays calculs NB Pour l’annexe Comment expliquer souffre graphiques relation faiblesse (pauvreté irons ensuite loin examinerons individuel propos propres L’indicateur défini ménages2 (étant donné varie l’autre) (défini ci-dessus) d’en- fants (quasiment) l’intensité considérée ‘très faible’ 59 hormis étudiants) travaillé 20% potentiel total cours l’année écoulée L’intensité moyen positionne niveaux l’exception atteint monétaire) (quasi-)absence d’intensité net (disponible) Son calcul étapes a) monétaires perçus n’importe source quel membre lui-même additionnés (ceci comprend capital aides espèces d’espèces ménages) déduction faite taxes cotisations payées; b) refléter (net) divisé ‘d’équivalents adultes’ ‘l’échelle modifiée l’OCDE’ donne poids (1 premier second personne suivante âgée ans); c) final attribué égale (adultes d’absence items) (proche Hongrie) elle Proportion (sur dix-sept) CH MT IT EL PL EE WA HR SE IS FI VL NL 70 80 Taux concerne présentation régionales intensité (nombre FR U BECZ BR ES LV RS CY LUDENLEE DK SI AT agrégées qu’occupent grande hétérogénéité situations nationales Des ayant termes illustre diversité potentielle Afin institutionnel poursuivi (enfant) recours mettre quelles ménage/des significatif FACTEURS résume principaux constats modèles D’un point vue identifié ensembles probabilité et/ou maîtrise ressources; coûts; relations types présentées diagramme d’abord expliquent bien-être consommer tour sa ‘maîtrise ressources’ Bien courant tel mesuré élément déterminées antérieurs actuels futurs prospérité capacité d’emprunt toutefois difficiles récolter L’ensemble influencé marché l’origine migratoire s’attendre corrélé enviable accès relativement aisé institutions crédit surmonter liquidité jeunes rendement futur l’investissement humain Comme souvent descendants présumer qu’elles d’héritages importants contribue Ceteris paribus origine hors UE corrélée vulnérable difficile probable précaire travailler prédicteur risques outre entraver due impliquer érosion l’épargne fin entraîner dettes l’une définition type design lutter degré ciblage l’adéquation influencer populations lieu défendent l’argument égales confrontés dépendent notamment l’état statut propriétaire/locataire série explicatifs mentionnés (taille influence Par monoparentales économiquement (parce possibilités mutualisation isolés mal concilier professionnelle familiale susceptibles d’opter partiel inactivité Du fixes (logement éducation représentent n’entraînent nécessairement préférences individus interviennent influencent consommation (on défendre façonnées certaine l’éducation milieu culturel vont sens supposer interactions professionnel côté salaires général Diagramme Déterminants appliquant d’analyser l’insuffisance l’échantillon vrai fournie famille/des directe d’avantages approchée dépenses (macro) Toutefois volume répartition reçu l’échantillon) rouge Celles noir difficulté éventuellement explicatives) l’activité indépendante toujours facile fiables cause éventuel sentiment honte d’admettre essentiels adaptatives person- nes longtemps diminuer attentes prétendre besoin payer) Certaines prises empirique prédicteurs majorité diffèrent socioécono- mique absence lequel reviendrons aidera (PIB) intervient amples recherches confirme régional plutôt (résultats publiés demande) PIB pays/d’une région réduise contrôle micro-facteurs n’était attendu priori semble corrélation contextuels ‘cachés’ Autrement national/régional ‘niveau social’ sociétés négative celui-ci explicatif limité sauf avantages surprise déjà compris utilisé; importantes combattre simplement ceci MODÉLISATION déprivée exception comparativement s’expliquer (1) pays; (2) l’illustre Quand simple bivariée indique (comparativement (nous tard données) évaluer associés caractéris- tiques lesquels utilisons méthodologie résumée 3) d’expliquer avons comparé spécifications robustesse présenterons (tous présentons (binomial négatif) expliquant (allant 17) fonction vit bref aide caractéristique (autrement ‘toutes choses ailleurs’) comparant différence souffrant facteur emploi) référence explicatives regroupées aurait effectuer régression séparée) entité indiquons coefficient colonne testons zéro (c-à-d confirment ‘maîtrise ressources’ ‘besoins ménage’ supposions Lerevenuduménageestleprincipaldéterminantdeladéprivation desenfantsdans Quandoncomparelescoefficientsentre nosrésultats montrentquecetimpactestsignificativementplusforten Flandre(dernière colonne): touteurosupplémentaireprotègemieuxdeladéprivation accroît significative Wallonie/Bruxelles encouru négatif qualification régionale (bien hypothèse doive examinée près) volatilité longues Elles accumulent lors d’épargne subissent perspectives Àniveauxderevenusimilaires lesménagesdontunoudesmembre(s) exercentune activité onttendanceàsouffrir d’unmoinsgrandnombrededépriva- tions Commeexpliquéplushaut peuts’expliquer enpartieparladifficultéde mesurercorrectementlesrevenusprovenantd’uneactivitéindépendante dansdes enquêtestelles EU-SILCoudefaireladistinctionentrelesavoirsetlescoûts personnelsetprofessionnelspourlesindépendants Lasituationdesindépendants estmeilleure Flandrequedanslesdeuxautres Vivre augmente après prise constitue soi expliqué dû comptent monoparentaux compter adulte) s’avèrent d’importants locataires propriétaires migrants d’origine Lorsque protecteur binomial Coeffi- cient WA/BR Impact WA/ Différence significa- tive Revenu -0 0705 oui 1235 (référence 3043 2654 Diplôme ens primaire secondaire supérieur) 8051 2932 6253 07596 Activité travailleur indépendant) 3592 -1 4786 Parent isolé (réf 1592 3716 Coûts jugés lourds lourds) 2473 3875 4919 8007 Nombre 0226 0539 Migrant migrant UE) 0084 1303 Locataires gratuit) 8026 5604 Endettement jugé léger) 3491 9858 Mauvaise mauvaise 3921 1814 gras (p<0 1) Note qu’en global fréquence précède informe surreprésentés Formation Sans Indépendant 0% 10% 30% 40% ■ combiné (figure 5) (tableau 2) voit Parmi 54% comparons chiffre WA/BR) égard précédents articles écrits Julie Vinck 2015; F J A-C 2014) (ce attribuons dépasser discuterons (au standard Enfants (< (3+ (5+ Variable 57% 64% Dipl sec inf 5% 33% 46% 32% sup 36% 44% 38% 47% 37% 31% Lourd 53% 82% 76% 84% 35% 17% Locataire 16% 26% 70% 78% 83% 45% 51% 39% s’élève (privés États RÉFLEXIONS RECOMMANDATIONS LE POUVOIR POLITIQUE ressort résumés contexte macro-économique manières observables (caractéris- apparemment pouvons différemment pays/régions courent régions prospères L’ampleur (surtout locataires) mesurés (services sociaux) Nos catégorie exceptionnelle flamande relâcher efforts rassemblés révèlent matérielle progressivement nouveau-nés montré inquiétant (PIB habitant médian) d’allocations d’adéquation macro-économiques favorables possède nature) s’ils redistribués universelle (62% (seulement) population) représente s’il insuffisant passer salaire Tant mensuel quarts 66% segment sous-évalue auquel viennent système fiscal Indicateurs 2014-5 (1000 SPA3) SPA enfant) Ménages (% d’enfants) Total tête) Avantages espèce PIB) Degré soc (seuil Adéquation Salaire (SPA mois) 00 63 92 71 08 1493 89 44 69 75 66 09 1450 76 82 73 1388 68 74 62 1597 90 07 1421 revient déciles impôts Parités d’achat convertissent montants exprimés monnaie commune artificielle uniformise monnaies prix partagent devise commune) OCDE Comparé l’exemple néerlandais sorte ait (Vandenbroucke 2017) hasard l’activation inscrite depuis nombreuses années haut l’agenda L’activation l’assistance s’inscrivent décentralisé majeur expérience ‘copiée’ telle livrer enseignements municipalités néerlandaises solide décision échelle obtenu compétences dernières décennies 2015 décentralisation (la Bruxelles) marqué étape Standards croissante discrètement décentralisée l’importance (via ‘revenu d’intégration’) gérée villes communes Malheureusement débat nouveau paysage réussir l’exclusion ni renforcé intégré réseaux (De Wilde 2016) veut dire eu tentative coordination interfédéral 2014-2015) encouragés financièrement flamand l’instant suivi initiatives clair nous)4 faiblesses gouvernance (ou potentialités inexploitées) s’ajoutent structurel persistant dépit successives moment écrivons l’Enquête Forces (LFS Labour Force Statistics) 2017 avait État (selon LFS5) était Simultanément simulations comparatives ‘ménages-types’ structurellement médiocre beaucoup Prenons parent employé social n’ajoute traditionnellement ‘soutien net’ travaille empêcher n’a d’emploi6 pourquoi elles veulent efficaces durable causes fondamentales intégration (2019) Gouvernements élaborer plan’ évaluation approfondie factuelle dogmatique existantes lumière défi relever comment solutions situent croisement référons inquiétudes exprimées Rapport Sénat assuré financement temporaire structurelles sait clairement seront main- tenues transféré Gemeentefonds investies pro- gramme existant ignorons utilisation contrôlée (Sénat 2015-2016 p 89) notion ‘ménage emploi’ LFS basée SILC Voir Cantillon Marchal Luigjes cependant ‘tax shift’ familiales; s’appuient MIPI 2013 d’activation exigent changements structurels miques ‘dures’ L’efficacité renforcée fédérales locales coordonnées mises service objectifs globaux exposés répondre nombreux divers efficace domaine sport loisirs7 Souligner originale tangibles supplémentaires devienne structurelle ceux-ci agissent matières mobilité l’enseignement … infantile8 croissants rester fers lance bénéficier suffisamment moyens financiers humains apprendre uns échanges d’expériences pratiques permettre d’évaluer renforcer suite brièvement commenter l’exhaustivité questions prendre accroître a. Outre visant reste marge manœuvre fiscaux conséquent œuvre réduire employeurs réduction budgétaire compensé micro-simulations suggèrent positif participation revenu; indiquent (future) compensation complète tax shift pourrait affecter pensionnés9 consiste éviter régressifs comblant trou axées L’objectif va mobilisation secteurs subventionnés soient secteur mener RH soutient l’expérience Leurs complétés carte orientation ciblée dépasse l’entreprise Ceci illustré Recommandations formulées Wallon Lutte Pauvreté récentes élections communales Capéau (2018) d’encore d’accroître travaillent b. ordinaire offre d’opportunités exploitons slogan ‘le marché’ accueillir monde naïf devons emplois (emplois )10 question savoir budgets consacrés projets d’économie accrus (L’activation prolongent ‘articles 60-61’ devenu cadre) c. disposer régulateur flexible autant listes d’attente (d’autres réflexions mentionnées gagner lorsqu’ils dernier comprennent d’assistance (revenu d’intégration) minimales d’invalidité revalorisés l’accent d’aléa moral l’assurance entraîné approche globale évolution souci atténuer préoccupations rémunération l’énergie l’eau sports Un plein suffisant horaires charge réalisées mettent surtout l’augmentation sous pression années11 souligné (2015-2016) réformé régimes nouveaux caractérisés montant forfaitaire universel complété suppléments ciblés réformes neutre (si d’étude compte)12 considéré vers universalisme ciblé réduit pièges (où s’attend dynamiques positifs grâce améliorations administratives favoriser l’exercice droits) posera 2019 pourront durant nouvelle d’études d. Quelles urgents soutenir substantiel nécessaire13 locatif sujet “L’offre (AIS) territoire” (Rapport 130) chacun puisse recourir instruments inciter bailleurs disposition AIS garantir maintien D’autre qu’“il (…) confrontées criants strictes L’on songe ici l’attribution enfant” étend veiller ayant-droit effectivement supprimer d’obstacles d’exercer Van Lancker W (2016) Decoster Vanheukelom Dewilde Pannecoucke l’association d’étendre substantiellement prévention réalisation droit sécurité accessibilité peuvent-ils protéger potentiellement essentiel d’agir préventive curative pourraient l’égalité développant capacités enfant/jeune soutenant éducatif places couverture géographique quartiers souplesse coût) actifs occupés fréquentation sous-représentation précarisés barrières financières (culturelles linguistiques organisationnelles )14 existent Côté francophone prévues l’accueil remarquer juste titre aura L’accessibilité physique Code enfance15 souligne encouragent renforcent l’inclusion accueillent exige collaborative promouvoir bénéfices impliquant organisations suppose personnel formé aider apprécier valeur convictions cultures respectées transition maternel attention particulière L’implication Pavolini E Schepers (2013) recherche financée (Crépin Neuberg 2013); http://ec europa eu/ assets/eac/education/policy/strategic-framework/archive/documents/ecec-quality-framework_en pdf revêt importance développe- ment reconnu personnelles familial préventif quartier collaborer faciliter transitions (famille milieux école maternelle) puissent luttant culturelles freinent l’accès; fragiles délétères quantité ici16 Qu’attendons-nous écoles peuvent-elles réellement offrir opportunités ouverture ancrage Chacun conviendra l’école brisant cercle vicieux moteur d’ascension sociale) s’attaquant conséquences court mère quitté priorité optique sortent L’effet répand entrave d’ascenseur l’ont tristement vagues PISA; manque soulève organisationnelles17 mettons enfants18 Communauté Wallonie-Bruxelles l’interaction uniformes condition préalable celles-ci réussissent multiples facettes d’enquête (EU-SILC) gradient postposer soins revenus; https://ec eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/ index php?title=Unmet_health_care_needs_statistics Baye (2016); Witte Hindriks publications aperçu récent tendances Franck proposent ‘un socle enfants’ indépendamment deviennent qu’on appelle ‘écoles larges’ (‘brede scholen’) insérées partenariats soutenues trouve d’écho Même possibles pensons sain complet connaissons l’idée fournissent gratuits élèves idée écartée facilement sérieux obligatoire reçoivent gratuit intéressant justifie « jusqu’au garantit législation datant 1948 visent préserver amé- liorer l’apprentissage sert d’outil pédagogique enseigner bonnes table habitudes d’alimentation saine céréales lait écrémé teneur grasse »19 expériences voient 78 maternelles (écoles différencié) offrent rentrée appel espérer généralise idéale s’appuie organismes capable préparation enseignants réussite origines contribuer apporter (dès aborder positivement langagière expliciter enjeux d’apprentissage entretenir confiance familiers l’institution armées exigences aptitudes suivre privatisation dualisation creusant fossé n’en http://www edu fi/yleissivistava_koulutus/hyvinvointi_koulussa/kouluruokailu/kouluruokailun_historiaa veillant voyages nécessaire atteindre socles primaires filières techniques professionnelles prohibitif pose réflexion portée excluant certain d’élèves ‘Maximum Facturer’ s’est attaqué périphériques programme limitation supportés secondaire20 transformées approches l’échelle Pacte d’excellence annoncé l’objectif gratuité envisagé progressive puis (d’abord dits ‘scolaires’ ‘d’accueil’) évidemment intention concrétiser culturelle extrascolaires artistique sportif extrascolaire compléterait idéalement développées veillerait équité d’‘école large’ évoqué œuvrant environnement autour ‘Maisons l’Enfant’ (‘Huizen Kind’) atout relient engagés prévenir sociaux21 poursuivre d’atteindre définis l’ONE ‘Précarité Périnatalité Enfance -2018’ prévoit provincial Anvers KOALA partenariat futures jusqu’à l’acronyme ‘Kind- OuderActiviteiten Lokale Armoedebestrijding’ (Activités Parents pauvreté) centrées subside permis 500 supplémen- taires lieux concertation centrés réservant préoccupation fragilisés volets concrétisés scolarité vis-à-vis intégrée éducative (cf ‘figures relais’ déployées flamands jettent ponts l’école) forte main-d’œuvre mènent envisager subsidiation investissent fournis constituer pierre angulaire ‘alliance autorités régionales/communau- reposant partagée d’action coordonné incluant pourra devient absolue premiers ministres piste actuelle anti-pauvreté consécutifs (axés placés ministre-président22 contenus pauvreté/déprivation infantile (2014-2015)23 fédéraux élaborés jusqu’ici24 travaillant couvrant l’éventail investissant suffisants succès http://cohesionsociale wallonie be/actions/lutte-contre-la-pauvret%C3%A9 mi-is be/sites/default/files/documents/plan_national_lutte_pauvrete_infantile_0 Plan (http://www miis be/sites/default/files/documents/plan_fede- ral_de_lutte_contre_la_pauvrete_2016-2019_0 pdf) Vlaams Actieplan Armoedebestrijding (https:// vlaanderen be/?q=vlaams-actieplan) RÉFÉRENCES (2015) Inégalités Fédération- L’apport PISA Eduquer 2015/ (n°114) 10-12 d’information l’autorité fédérale Communautés Session doc 6-162/3) S Chr Decent Incomes for the Poor: Which Role Europe? Journal Common Market Studies Volume Number pp 240–256; DOI: 1111/jcms 12486 Maes T Betaalt taxshift zichzelf terug? Leuvense Economische Standpunten 2018/168 Crépin Vécu étrangère l’égard structures parole donnée précarité Impactberekening kinderbijslaghervorming armoederisico KU Leuven janvier M Bie jaar OCMW bijstand Leuven; Acco Kr (eds) (her)vormende school Itinera -C juvénile Parlement Gordon D Najera H Pomati ‘Towards measure child deprivation’ Child indicators research https://doi org/10 1007/ s12187-017-9491-6 P Micro- macro-drivers deprivation European countries poverty Belgium Lahaye Vranken I Rossem R (eds Belgian yearbook Sociale InZichten ACCO Leuven/La Haye The new system family allowances Wallonia: distributive effects https://www researchgate net/publication/316828914_THE_NEW_SYSTEM_OF_FAMILY_ ALLOWANCES_IN_WALLONIA_IMPACT_ON_POVERTY_AND_DISTRIBU- TIVE_EFFECTS C ‘nieuwe kwestie 0’: wonen armer maakt in: Coene Raeymaeckers Hubeau Goedemé Remmen Haarlem Uitsluiting Jaarboek Baromètre énergétique (2009-2015) (3e édition) Iets gelijker helaas Monseur ethno-culturelle amplification Quels apports Paris Conseil d’évaluation Lafontaine Structure éducatifs éclairage international Crahay (Ed L’école peut-elle (2e éd collaborateurs augmentée 145-173) Boeck parcours âgés champs parentalité SA Dedicated Research Matthew effect childcare use: matter policies or preferences? Public Policy 25(6):878-893 Pacolet Buffel V Segaert Vanormelingen Coninck Wispelaere Op Beeck L Progress implementation Recommendation Investing children Social Network (ESPN) Country Profile Unia L’enseignement inégalitaire ethnique Hoog tijd alarmbel trekken Sampol: Samenleving politiek n° (december) 4-11 Nederland: kleine welvaartsstaten Vierendertigste Pacificatielezing Breda november 13140/ RG 14550 34888 armoede- verdelingsimpact kinderbijslag: akkoord Regering mei 2016 CSB ANNEXE LISTE ABRÉVIATIONS BE BG CZ PT RO IE SK UK Autres UE-SILC (hors LT LU HU fondation d’utilité info@kbs-frb 02-500 dons partir euros IBAN: BE10 0000 0404 BIC: BPOTBEB1 d’impôt versé Agir mission changement d’innovation l’intérêt cohésion cherche maximiser renforçant encourage philanthro- pie particuliers entreprises Ses valeurs l’intégrité transparence pluralisme l’indépendance respect promotion solidarité justice philanthropie l’engagement sociétal talents démocratie l’intégration coopération créée 1976 l’occasion règne roi Merci donateurs précieux Abonnez-vous e-news bonnescauses Suivez-nous PUB N°

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Armoede en deprivatie bij Belgische kinderen Een vergelijking van de risicofactoren in drie gewesten buurlanden COLOFON TITEL Cette publication est également disponible français sous le titre: La pauvreté et la déprivation des enfants Belgique Comparaison facteurs risque dans les trois Régions pays voisins uitgave Koning Boudewijnstichting Brederodestraat 21 1000 Brussel AUTEURS Anne-Catherine Guio (LISER – Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research) Frank Vandenbroucke (Universiteit Amsterdam) Netwerk voor analyse EU-SILC (Net-SILC3) COÖRDINATIE VOOR DE KONING BOUDEWIJNSTICHTING Françoise Pissart directeur Anne-Françoise Genel senior projectcoördinator Saida Sakali Nathalie Troupée project- kennismanager Ann Vasseur programme management GRAFISCH CONCEPT Salutpublic VORMGEVING TiltFactory PRINT ON DEMAND Manufast-ABP vzw een bedrijf aangepaste arbeid Deze kan gratis worden gedownload onze website www kbs-frb be afdruk deze elektronische (gratis) besteld via WETTELIJK DEPOT D2893/2018/38 BESTELNUMMER 3616 December 2018 Met steun Nationale Loterij 5 INHOUDSTAFEL Colofon 4 Inhoudstafel Voorwoord 7 Samenvatting 9 Synthèse 13 1 Inleiding 17 2 Algemeen overzicht België vergeleken met EU-landen 18 3 Factoren die leiden tot 27 Theoretisch kader Empirische resultaten 30 Deprivatie belgische gewesten: verklaringsmodel 31 Overwegingen aanbevelingen het beleid 37 Referenties: 49 Bijlage 1: lijst afkortingen landennamen 51 VOORWOORD Zou er nog iemand zijn niet op hoogte is ontstellende cijfers over kinderarmoede tijd? Al bijna decennium gegevens daarover geregeld onder aandacht gebracht beleidsmakers grote publiek Het risico bestaat dat door te blijven hameren steeds weer dezelfde percentages 40% 25% 15% respectievelijk Wallonië Vlaanderen collectieve verontwaardiging verslapt zelfs politieke berusting volgt Dat uitdaging groot spreekt zich: gaat om dus toekomst samenleving als geheel Hun precaire levensomstandigheden verhinderen zich harmonieus kunnen ontwikkelen De effecten hun slechte start leven dreigen ook zeer lange termijn voelbaar Daartegenover staat verbeteren leefomstandigheden investeren maatregelen ontwikkeling al jonge leeftijd ten goede komen betekent je komaf maakt fatalisme statistische voorspellingen zeggen arm kind alle kans heeft arme volwassene reden waarom aandringt noodzaak ambitieus armoede gezinnen Berusting inderdaad geen optie We moeten onophoudelijk zoeken naar nieuwe manieren actoren mobiliseren andere ogen kijken statistieken daar één ertoe aangezet studie publiceren twee auteurs (hoogleraar aan Universiteit (Luxembourg Research LISER) analyseerden netwerk NET-SILC3 diverse Europese landen factoren onderzoekers ondernamen poging verschillen begrijpen tussen maar Zij hebben aangeboden hoop Stichting efficiëntst mogelijke wijze zou verspreiden indicatoren analyseren situatie elkaar vergelijken levert beeld opwekkender dan we hierboven vermeldden Toch hopen mobiliserend mag werken redenen: hier stapt men af abstracte concept ‘armoede(risico)drempel’ kiest benadering beter aansluit leefwereld kinderen; bevatten kiemen actie gaan omdat ze rechtstreeks hefbomen aangeven beweging moet zetten Vertrekken legt falen bloot onwaardig Zo genieten veel vakantie (33%) vrijetijdsactiviteiten (19 8%) wat kleren (15 7%) boeken (10%) internet enz In ligt aandeel gedepriveerde niveau Kroatië Malta Polen Verenigd Koninkrijk Zelfs waar percentage laagste Europa behoort wordt 41% gezin gewerkt gedepriveerd beschouwd 8 wilden bijdrage beperken nauwgezette cijfergegevens rapport overhandigd Daarin werden nuances bijkomende elementen geïntegreerd aangereikt leden comité bestond uit specialisten veld samenvatting daarvan werd bezorgd laatste deel vormt laat zien enkele actor beleidsniveau dit z’n eentje aanpakken zal pas significant combinatie sociaal fiscaal vlak van: jongste onderwijs buitenschoolse huisvesting opleiding werk woorden: aantal bevoegdheidsdomeinen ambitieuze visie nodig ondersteund overheden coördinatie lokale Als willen bereid écht strijdt tegen gesensibiliseerd problematiek haar zozeer opvatten gevolg individuele keuzes resultaat welbepaalde maatschappelijke processen uitsluitingsmechanismen investering bijzonder ‘rendabel’ alleen kansarme zelf hecht eraan danken opmerkelijke wetenschappelijk alsook voorleggen geledingen dankt volgende personen advies suggesties • Séverine Acerbis Badje Antoine Borighem ONE – Direction Etudes Stratégies Bleeckere Vlaamse Overheid Departement Onderwijs Vorming Strategische Beleidsondersteuning Valérie Desomer Fédération CPAS wallons Union Villes Communes Wallonie organisationnelle opérationnelle politique David Vaal François Ghesquière Recherche Évaluation IWEPS Anne Giacomelli l’Enseignement Supérieur Catholique FédESuC Kathy Jacobs Kind & Gezin Afdeling Preventieve Gezinsondersteuning Janssen Réseau wallon lutte contre Fanny Laurent Le Forum-Bruxelles inégalités Sarah Luyten Observatorium Gezondheid Welzijn Brussel-Hoofdstad Christiane Malcorps Solvay Isabelle Martijn POD Maatschappelijke integratie Florence Pirard ULg Faculté Psychologie Sciences l’Eductation Département d’éducation formation Tine Rommens SAMENVATTING Cijfers financiële gebaseerd relatieve metingen hangen inkomensniveau elk land Mensen wie inkomen lager 60% nationale mediaan ‘arm’ indicator gebruikt meer ‘absolute’ bestuderen: Die meet dagelijkse problemen Hij financieel toegang eenzelfde items beschouwt noodzakelijk leeft: eet elke dag fruit groenten? Nodigt soms vriendjes thuis? Kan deelnemen schooluitstapjes -feestjes? Leeft behoorlijk verwarmde woning? Gaat jaarlijks minstens week vakantie? Men ervan veroorloven Hoe hoger beschikt hoe ernstiger voorliggende maart Europees goedgekeurd maken (als gewest) Ze geeft ongeveer vergelijkbaar Frankrijk drempel gelegd merkt kloof naburige groter 12% vier terwijl Nederland Duitsland 7% 9% Luxemburg slechts 2% bedraagt Achter gemiddelde schuil mist 29% 22% 8% klassement bevindt groep best presterende neemt Brussels Gewest extreme positie hoog ernstige vormen middengroep Maar ernstig erg analyseert hoofdzakelijk middelen (het beschikbare schuldenlast ) noden (kosten gezondheid gezinssamenstelling (leven eenoudergezin impact zowel kosten) variabelen verschilt sterk rijkste verbonden noden/kosten grootst algemeen minst ontwikkelde Er inzake sociaal-economische samenstelling populatie zoals uiteenlopend niemand werkt: variabele deprivatierisico 10 laten tevens rekening houdt (bv gezinsinkomen) algemene welvaartspeil blijft Dit kwetsbare groepen vergelijkbare kenmerken beschermd armste rijkdom geïnterpreteerd proxy bepaalde model gemeten patrimonium hulp natura bieden kwaliteit toegankelijkheid onderwijssystemen kinderopvang gezondheidszorg openbaar vervoer allemaal ofwel reële kosten waarmee zij geconfronteerd gelijkenissen gezinsinkomen belangrijkste determinant Vlaanderen: euro beschermt Andere verhogen zijn: (nagenoeg) woonst huurt kampen zware waarvan chronische gezondheidsproblemen beïnvloed opleidingsniveau ouders vooral vermoedelijk werkloosheid laaggekwalificeerde mensen lopen periodes gekenmerkt zonder vaststelling factoren: ene kant schrijven toe feit meeste sociale minimumtransfers (zoals minimum werkloosheidsuitkering leefloon) begunstigden mogelijk boven armoede(risico)drempel geval leeft verwaarlozen (41%) ondanks kleiner conclusies beleidsaanbevelingen onderstrepen buitenlandse voorbeelden bewijzen tegelijk minder én betere inkomensbescherming biedt VN-Verdrag Rechten geratificeerd Daardoor ons duidelijke publieke verantwoordelijkheid bescherming rechten federale regering gewest- gemeenschapsregeringen motiveren vanaf begin legislatuur masterplan belangrijke rol besturen brede waaier domeinen behelzen: werk: fiscale loonkosten werknemers verminderen netto verhogen; investeringen economie; levenspeil: vervangingsinkomens uitkeringen 11 herbekeken adequate richten hervorming gezinsbijslagen nu bevoegdheid gewesten; huisvesting: aanbod woningen uitgebreid; ondersteuning huisvestingsmaatschappijen (zij instaan kwalitatieve bijstand); huurpremies versterkt worden; kinderen: opvangdiensten betaalbaar kwaliteitsvol voorrangsregels groepen; openbare diensten voorzieningen: dienstverlening (gezondheid cultuur sport…) zo organiseren iedereen toegankelijk is; onderwijs: opzetten scholen openstaan gemeenschap samen partners pakken: voeding (elke gezonde complete maaltijden aanbieden) schoolondersteuning (zelf aanbieden leerlingen is) schoolkosten (de materiaal pedagogische activiteiten gezinnen) activiteiten… alles samengaan netwerking proactieve nabijheidswerk spelen daarin cruciale verdient Nabijheidswerk meest zorgen voorzieningen goed SYNTHÈSE taux monétaire une mesure relative qui dépend du revenu chaque : sont considérées comme pauvres personnes dont inférieur à médian national Les utilisent un autre indicateur afin d’étudier différences plus ‘absolues’ entre Cet difficultés quotidiennes se basant non sur mais l’accès même ensemble considérés nécessaires pour tout enfant vivant Europe l’enfant mange-t-il fruits légumes jour ? Invite-t-il parfois amis maison Peut-il participer excursions fêtes scolaires Vit-il logement correctement chauffé Part-il au moins semaine par an vacances On considère qu’un situation lorsqu’il privé d’au ces Plus nombre d’items manquants élevé sévère présente étude utilise ce nouvel agréé européen mars comparer (globalement Région) d’autres européens Elle révèle que d’environ soit similaire France supérieur celui autres Mais quand on prend seuil observe l’écart creuse avec proches Ainsi privés quatre alors cette proportion situe aux Pays-Bas Allemagne n’est moyenne belge recouvre fortes disparités d’enfants Bruxelles Flandre Dans classement groupe performants Région bruxelloise occupe position extrême très formes sévères classe intermédiaire Croatie Malte Pologne Royaume-Uni sévérité L’étude Ils principalement liés ressources ménage (le aussi l’emploi l’endettement etc ses besoins (les coûts santé composition démographique fait vivre famille monoparentale exemple agit tant coûts) L’impact différentes variables diffère fortement d’un l’autre C’est riches l’impact relatif liées besoins/coûts fort généralement grand défavorisés Il n’y a donc seulement socio-économique population pourcentage différent ménages sans emploi variable l’absence d’emploi exerce résultats illustrent qu’une fois l’on tient compte individuelles (p ex ménage) richesse continue avoir 14 Cela signifie groupes vulnérables présentant caractéristiques similaires mieux protégés peut être interprétée approximation certaines ne mesurées modèle patrimoine l’aide nature qualité l’accessibilité financière systèmes d’éducation garde transport public ont tous réelles auxquels ils font face L’analyse permet distinguer similitudes principal déterminant toutes significativement supplémentaire protège (quasi) locataire son confronté lourd endettement ou certains membres souffrent problèmes chroniques augmentent Celle-ci influencée parents particulier doute parce chômage y peu qualifiées risquent davantage souffrir périodes fréquentes deux comparaison européenne caractérise élevée déprivés Ce constat résulte d’une part importante particulièrement ; d’autre belges attribuent cela plupart transferts sociaux minimums (comme allocations d’intégration exemple) permettent bénéficiaires s’élever au-dessus cas où négligeable malgré non-emploi nettement faible leurs conclusions recommandations politiques soulignent qu’il possible d’avoir d’assurer meilleure protection revenus prouve exemples rappellent ratifié Convention Nations Unies Droits l’Enfant implique responsabilité publique claire concernant droits devrait motiver dès début prochaine législature mise place gouvernement fédéral ainsi gouvernements régionaux communautaires d’ambitieux « master plans » relatifs rôle important pouvoirs locaux Ces Plans devraient couvrir large éventail domaines mesures fiscales sociales réduisent salariaux travailleurs qualifiés nets investissements l’économie vie revalorisation remplacement 15 qu’ils constituent adéquate ciblées faveur familles précarisées cadre réforme familiales transfert compétence extension l’offre logements soutien accru agences immobilières (qui doivent pouvoir assurer accompagnement qualité) renforcement primes location petite enfance services d’accueil abordables règles d’accès prioritaire publics sociaux: développement (santé culture sports…) accessibles enseignement création d’écoles dites larges c -à-d ouvertes leur communauté locale capables s’attaquer collaboration partenaires matière alimentaire (en fournissant repas sains complets jour) scolaire organisant elles-mêmes accessible élèves) frais limitant coût matériel activités pédagogiques familles) d’activités extrascolaires… Tout doit s’accompagner travail proximité démarche proactive réseau jouent crucial mérite d’être soutenu s’investissant peuvent toucher augmenter façon considérable l’efficacité disponibles INLEIDING determinanten daarbij gebruik kind-specifieke Unie aangenomen paper bouwt voort econometrische analyses Marlier Verbunt (te verschijnen) (micro macro) eenendertig geanalyseerd Doel begrip overige opgebouwd Sectie definieert ‘deprivatie kinderen’ beschrijft brengt macro- microdeterminanten basis e toont data omvat beklemtonen artikel grotendeels voortbouwt derde gesubsidieerd Eurostat houden Begeleidingscomité Ides Nicaise Magda Meyer nuttige commentaar uitsluitend Correspondentie anne-catherine guio@liser lu ALGEMEEN OVERZICHT VAN DEPRIVATIE BIJ KINDEREN IN BELGIË EN BELGISCHE GEWESTEN VERGELEKEN MET EU-LANDEN accurate informatie uitgaat vooronderstellingen manier waarop binnen verdeeld specifieke Daarom Dergelijke 2009 2014 hele bijeengebracht EU Survey income and living conditions (EU-SILC) verzameld jaar oud respondent (dus zelf) protocol ging bepaald item beschikken wanneer Belangrijk verzamelde privégezinnen instellingen daklozen kraakpanden volwassenen abnormale situaties) opgenomen finale (2017) voorstelden meten betreft materiële bevat items: Kind: (geen tweedehands) paar passende schoenen dagelijks vers verse groenten vlees kip vis vegetarisch equivalent thuis aangepast 6 uitrusting ontspanning buitenshuis spelletjes binnenshuis vieren bijzondere gelegenheden tijd uitnodigen eten -feesten 12 Gezin: vervangen versleten meubels achterstallige betalingen Volwassenen gezin: 16 auto privégebruik Enkel probleem levenskeuze) Tabel welke mate optreedt vermelden EU28 19 heatmap systematisch deprivatieniveau zitten (oranje rood) Bulgarije Roemenië staan laag Noorden Oostenrijk Luxemburg; groen) tabel gemengd afhankelijk item: sommige relatief ongunstig eerder gunstig Onderaan geplaatst tegenover rangschikking zouden opnemen (let wel opmerking hierover hieronder volgt) vijf ‘landen’ behoren gemiddeld presteren Tsjechische Republiek Portugal buurt Griekenland Baltische Staten Slovakije Servië benadrukken set absolute entiteiten; hanteren ‘monetaire’ gewoonlijk rapporteert Opgelet Bij EU-lidstaten redenen voorzichtig (1) Omdat schattingen steekproeven zgn ‘steekproeffouten’ regionale (2) verschillende geografische entiteiten naties beseffen voordoen (3) bewust grootsteden concentreert loont volgens moeite Hoofdstedelijk geven regionale/nationale decentralisatie bevoegdheden beleidsverantwoordelijkheid draagt armoedebestrijding (4) caveats gelden vergelijkingen Wanneer armoedecijfers berekenen figuur hieronder) armoede(risico) 20 Heatmap procentuele (in beschikken; populatie: Jaar Landen % Fruit Boeken Schoenen Spelletjes Proteïnen Internet Feestjes Uitrusting Kleren Uitstapjes school Vrienden Auto Verwarming Vrijetijd Achterstallige Vakantie Meubels Zweden 0 Finland IJsland 24 Denemarken Zwitserland 25 Slovenië 28 Spanje 34 46 22 29 Cyprus 41 40 60 Italië 38 Ierland 53 23 36 57 47 26 35 EU-28 33 32 54 Estland Litouwen 50 48 39 61 45 Letland 42 55 67 Hongarije 52 43 72 Bron: Voor berekeningen transversale EU-SILC-enquête Tot focusten individueel apart Nu na accumuleren zeventien Figuur verdeling presenteren (luik A) (Nederland luik B) Luik A (BR) 50% (dat EU-niveau hanteert definiëren) extreem hoge graad (WA) bedragen 43% 14% (VL) beduidend lager: 23% 4% B gehanteerde ‘niet items’ cijfer (13%) (11%) (8%) (wat betekent: deprivatie) (2%) komt 7-9% Verdeling (tussen jaar) beschikken: A: B: berekening NB: zie bijlage 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 11+ 12+ 13+ 14+ 15+ 16+ ■ WA VL BR BE 96 84 64 320 100 4100 NL LU FR valt verklaren hogere buurlanden? grafieken onderzoeken nationaal relatie (monetaire verder tekst altijd aangeduid ‘kinderarmoede’) Vervolgens stap gebruiken survey beantwoorden vergelijkt gedefinieerd mediane meting inkomensarmoede (aangezien armoederisicodrempel verschilt) facetten zien: gedefinieerd) (of nagenoeg niet) werkt werkintensiteit ‘erg laag’ omschreven (18-59 uitzondering studenten) voorbije 20% totale potentiële werktijd effectief intensiteit hierboven: gemist (dit wil zeggen: items) (beschikbare) stappen berekend: a) geldelijke lid bron in: kapitaal vorm geld transfers gezinnen; belastingen bijdragen betaald som afgehouden; b) omvang (netto-)gezinsinkomen gedeeld ‘equivalente volwassenen’ Daarbij gemaakt zogenaamde ‘gemodificeerde OESO-schaal’ gezinsleden gewicht toekent (1 eerste tweede persoon ouder jonger 14); c) slot hiervan gelijkmatig toegekend (volwassenen kinderen) Uit blijkt volgende: noordelijke lage (behalve inkomen) bereikt items’) benadert deprivatiepercentage hetzelfde Waalse armoedepercentage midden hoogste net 2: Aandeel (van 17) druk) Berekening Wat kadertekst ‘Opgelet’ 70 80 RO BG RS EL LV HU PT ES IT LT CY IE SK UK EE AT CH CZ SE DK FI IS MT PL HR m b t Kinderarmoede (monetair relatief) 3: zeventien) SI 4: (gemiddeld EUSILC geaggregeerde macroniveau illustreren heterogeniteit situaties bevinden deprivatiegraad heel potentieel divers Om (determinanten instituties kenmerken) uitgewerkt individu(ele kind) gezinnen/ouders betekenisvolle LUSI MTPL Intensiteit FACTOREN DIE LEIDEN TOT vatten bevindingen gebruikmaking modellen Drie sets en/of beïnvloeden: bekeken langere termijn; wordt; Diagram relaties plaats hangt welzijn hoeveel consumeren beurt Hoewel lopende berekend element vanuit langetermijnperspectief vroegere toekomstige bezittingen leningscapaciteit Gegevens moeilijker verzamelen eigenschappen arbeidsmarkt migratieachtergrond verwachten samengaat sterkere makkelijkere liquiditeitsproblemen (voor jongere mensen) opbrengst menselijk hoogopgeleide vaak uitgaan vaker grotere erfenissen bijdraagt niet-EU-migratieachtergrond correleert geërfde moeilijkere (ceteris paribus d w z migranten niet-migranten) volwassen gezinsleden: voorspelt latere risico’s eens weg langdurige erosie bezittingen/spaargeld uiteindelijk schulden inde Ook (sociale geld) component vervat inkomensdefinitie architectuur echter belangrijk strijd gelijke vraag doelgericht adequaat toch verschil uitmaken Verder kosten: Noden name gezondheidstoestand huurder eigenaar huisvestingskosten verklarende (omvang gezin) invloed waarover eenoudergezinnen economisch gezien kwetsbaarder ‘spreiden’ volwassene) Alleenstaande verzoenen gezinsleven kiezen daarom parttimewerk Vanuit perspectief single-ouders vaste (huisvesting gelijkaardig gelijkaardige Individuele voorkeuren hierin beïnvloeden consumptiegedrag (Men stellen zekere gevormd opvoeding culturele achtergrond verbanden richtingen sprake interactie grootte loon uitvoeren was gebrek voldoende groene diagram dataset beschikbaar Belangrijke micro-dataset geldt bijvoorbeeld familie/vrienden bezit consumptie voordelen natura) ingeschat ‘sociale overheidsuitgaven natura’ Alleen bedrag uitgaven genot (we kennen waarin huishoudens diensten) rood macroniveau; zwart helemaal ontbreekt resultaten: moeilijkheid gevallen eventueel variabelen) moeilijk survey-onderzoek zelfstandige makkelijk betrouwbare vanwege gevoel schaamte essentiële missen doordat mettertijd aanpassen: verwachtingen temperen Voorkeuren Macro-economische omstandigheden (nationale ontwikkeling) Opleidingsniveau Werkloosheid Migratie Sociaal Sociale (= Diensten (publiek/privaat) Gezondheidstoestand Noden/kosten: Opleiding huisvesting… Grootte Huisvesting: statuut (huurder/ eigenaar) prijzen huizen rentevoeten Middelen Huidig Toekomstig Bezittingen erfenis krediet langer empirische gehouden krachtige voorspellers tonen gezinsniveau verband voorbeeld: loopt uiteen later terugkomen helpen onderzoek speelt (rijkdom bruto binnenlands product BBP) bevestigd gewestelijk (deze gepubliceerd verzoek beschikbaar) gegeven BBP land/gewest vermindert controle microfactoren priori verwacht blijkbaar ‘verborgen’ contextuele voren onderlinge systemen benaderende indicatie ‘niveau ontwikkeling’ gemeenschappen negatief ander besluit mee kracht gerichtheid armsten beperkter behalve Verrassend ‘gezinsinkomen’ gehanteerd naast GEWESTEN: EEN VERKLARINGSMODEL samenstelling: uitzonderlijk verklaard landen; eenvoudige bivariate daarop terug data) evaluatie gewestelijke passen methodologie ontwikkeld sectie samengevat) specificaties zeker stevig bladzijden eenvoudigste (Alle verkrijgbaar (negatief binomiaal) verklaring deprivaties type helpt afzonderlijk kenmerk waaronder gebukt ceteris betreft) risicofactor voordoet werk) referentiegroep gewerkt) Ons Brusselse steekproef klein aparte regressie) entiteit kolom coëfficiënt nul (met woorden statistisch significante checken gewest bevestigen ‘het middelen’ ‘noden gezin’ weergegeven Meer coëfficiënten (laatste kolom) Elke Leven verhoogt inkomensvariabele Wallonië/Brussel beïnvloedt Laagopgeleide negatieve lagere scholing (een hypothese waarvoor volatiel werkloosheidsgraad Hierdoor sparen eroderen sneller vooruitzichten rooskleurig zelfstandig Zoals uitgelegd deels enquêtes correct zelfstandigen onderscheid persoonlijke professionele doet toenemen zichzelf uitlegden wijten nemen heen volatiliteit (omdat terugvallen lijken Schuldenlasten Wie loop huiseigenaars Niet-EU-migranten afkomst EU-migranten aangezien Resultaten binomiale Coëfficiënt WA/BR Is WA/BR? VL? significant? Inkomen -0 0705 ja 1235 (referentie: 3043 2654 nee Opleiding: secundair opleiding) 8051 2932 6253 07596 Zelfstandig gezinslid) 3592 -1 4786 Ouder single (ref: 1592 3716 Kosten zwaar zwaar) 2473 3875 iets 4919 8007 Aantal 0226 0539 Niet-EU-migrant Belg EU-migrant) 0084 1303 Huurder huur) 8026 5604 Zware schuldenlast) 3491 9858 Gezondheidsproblemen volw 3921 1814 vet: licht (p<0 1) Noot: per frequentie voorkomen oververtegenwoordigd 5: risicogroep niveaus betreft: gecombineerde kinderpopulatie risicogroepen (figuur 5) regressieresultaten 2) W/BR 54% Hieruit (vooral WA/BR) enkel belicht voorgaande papers Julie Vinck 0% 10% 30% 70% Huurders Huisvestingskosten: Zonder coauteur (zie 2015; 2014) werkloosheidscijfers bevestigt) Wegens minima recht heeft) tillen besproken (missen standaarddeprivatie Niet (< Standaarddeprivatie (3+ Ernstige (5+ Variabele 57% 64% sec 5% 33% 46% 32% 36% 44% 38% 47% 37% Slechte 31% 53% 82% 76% 84% 35% 17% 16% 26% 78% 83% 45% 51% Migrant 39% 6: OVERWEGINGEN AANBEVELINGEN HET BELEID samengevat macro-economische beleidscontext bredere context observeerbare (eigenschappen uiteenlopende Ceteris landen/regio’s welvaartsniveau rijkere evenzeer cruciaal Gezondheidskosten huurders) ‘in Onze Ondanks neer leggen verzamelt niet-materiële pasgeboren gestaag toeneemt lieten onrustwekkend ernst (BBP capita toereikendheid gericht armen gunstigste omstandigheden: hoogst laagst (financieel hoewel universele (Slechts 62% bevolking minimuminkomen toereikend vertegenwoordigt volstaat maandinkomen Zowel specifiek arbeidsmarktbeleid kwart segment populatie; 66% Nederlandse inkomens onderschatting belastingsen uitkeringsbeleid ondersteunt hebben; steunmaatregelen belastingsysteem -sociale 2014-2015 Land (1000 KKP3) Mediaan KKP Gezinnen (% Totaal capita) (gezin) Oriëntatie (drempel Adequaatheid Minimumloon (KKP maand) 00 63 92 71 08 1493 89 44 69 75 66 09 1450 76 82 73 1388 68 74 62 1597 90 07 1421 hand terechtkomt decielen inkomensverdeling vóór Koopkrachtpariteiten (KKP) uitgedrukt munteenheid kunstmatige gemeenschappelijke munt koopkracht munten gelijkschakelt prijsniveaus verschillend zijn) hebben) OESO bewijst voorbeeld kunt garanderen (Vandenbroucke 2017) toevallig activering jarenlang agenda Activering bijstand gebeuren uitstek gedecentraliseerd hoeft zodanig gekopieerd lessen trekken: dankzij grootschaligheid steden gemeenten beleidskracht decennia kregen decentralisering (Vlaanderen Brussel) 2015 vormde Tegelijk toenemend geruisloos overheden: facto wordende Koopkrachtpariteit belang inkomensondersteuning ‘leefloon’) beheerd Jammer genoeg maatschappelijk debat gedecentraliseerde landschap succes uitsluiting evenmin kwestie netwerken ingebed (De Wilde 2016) pogingen geweest armoedebeleid stemmen interfederaal plan 2014-2015) gestimuleerd momenteel follow-up initiatieven onduidelijk (toch ons) Zwakke punten bestuurlijke aanpak aangeboord potentieel) voegen structureel hardnekkig bestaan opeenvolgende beleidsinitiatieven werkgelegenheid boost Op moment Enquête Arbeidskrachten (EAK) 2017 EU-lidstaat leefde EAK definieert5) Tezelfdertijd vergelijkende simulaties netto-inkomen types ‘matig’ Neem alleenstaande werkloos minimumloon krijgt Traditioneel voegt systeem ‘netto-ondersteuning’ En kinderbijslag belanden zit blijvend effect sorteren hoofdoorzaken Aan (2019) Gewest- Gemeenschapsregeringen opstellen diepgaande evidence-based niet-dogmatische gevoerde dergelijk aangepakt: levensstandaard laaggeschoolde verbeteren? oplossingen kruispunt belastings- verwijzen bezorgdheid senaatsrapport voorzag tijdelijke subsidies voortgezet transfereerde gingen bestaande ondersteuningsregeling Gemeentefonds gemonitord (Belgische Senaat 2015-2016 p 89) notie ‘gezinnen werk’ gewerkt’ gebruikten wij Zie Cantillon Marchal Luigjes merken hielden taxshift MIPI-databank 2013 vorming activeringsbeleid vereisen structurele veranderingen ‘harde’ sociaaleconomische regeringen effectiviteit gecoördineerd dienste overkoepelende doelstellingen bereiken tegemoet vele veelvoudige nood efficiënte autoriteiten sport vrijetijd Poneren origineel tastbare inspanningen zo’n daarbinnen OCMW’s reeks mobiliteit onderwijs…) toenemende speerpunten menselijke leren elkaar; uitwisseling praktijkervaring geëvalueerd vervolg bespreken beknopt kwesties aangepakt vaststellingen pretenderen exhaustief Naast maat activeren laaggeschoolden ruimte verbetering uitkeringsregelingen weinig samenhangend daarmee lonen doorgevoerd werkgevers inkomstenbelasting arbeidsinkomen voorwerp belastingvermindering middeninkomens begroting; daarvoor compensaties microsimulaties positieve deelname laagverdieners signaleren (toekomstige) volledige budgettaire compensatie geïmplementeerd aantasten gepensioneerd mobilisatie vanzelfsprekend beperkt gesubsidieerde sectoren doen Werkgevers buiten economie armoede-ervaring eigen hr-beleid ondersteunen hr-processen ondersteuningsbeleid aangevuld armoedebestrijdende Kennis kaart gerichte doorverwijzing mogelijkheden overstijgt duurzame tewerkstelling mooi geïllustreerd Wallon Lutte Pauvreté formuleerde aanleiding recente gemeenteraadsverkiezingen Capéau (2018) dergelijke regressieve dichten regelingen focussen versterken doel netto-arbeidsinkomen werkloze tasten reguliere privémarkt kansen benutten motto “naar markt” naïef jobs (tewerkstelling buurtdiensten budgetten (Het leefloon mechanismen voortbouwen ‘Artikels 60-61’ sinds betaalbaarheid werkgelegenheidsgraad omhoog krijgen Bijkomende flexibele regelgeving ervoor wachtlijsten ingeperkt (Verderop volgen overwegingen enerzijds perspectieven verdienen hierboven) anderzijds inkomensvervangende job bijstandsuitkeringen (leefloon) minimumuitkeringen invaliditeit Recent nadruk moral hazard verzekering geleid sluitende evolutie bekommernissen afdoende Behalve energie water Werken voltijds gewerkte uren loonniveau laste energiekosten toename onderstreept (2015-2016) jaren gezinsbudgetten druk gezet stelsels hervormd universeel forfait supplementen Inzake lijkt hervormingen neutraal positief school- studietoelagen gebracht) voorwaarts universalisme werkloosheidsval (waar dynamische implementatie administratieve verbeteringen waardoor beroep zullen doen) langetermijnimpact 2019 genomen huisvestingsbeleid Welke dringende pakken laagverdieners-huurders voorzien woningen? substantiële huurders groeit private huurmarkt hieromtrent “het verhuurkantoren (SVK) gebiedsdekkend zijn” zodat overheid instrumenten verhuurders SVK’s ter beschikking uitbreiding kwaliteitsvolle begeleiding SVK-huurders Daarnaast “huurpremies/subsidies (…) grootste woningnood strikte voorwaarden onmiddellijk gedacht armoederisico dragen extra ” (Senaatsrapport 130) aandachtspunt verdere uitwerking huursubsidies/premies iedere rechthebbende non-take-up wegwerken allerlei Van Lancker (2016) Decoster Heukelom Dewilde Pannecoucke samenhang drempels huurwoningen woonaanbod immers buffer waarborgt realisatie wonen woonzekerheid beschermen kindertijd? preventief curatief gelijkheid vaardigheden kind/elke opvoeders gewaakt dat: opvang dekkingsgraad achtergestelde wijken soepele uurroosters actief werkend zorg ondervertegenwoordiging migrantenkinderen hinderpalen bemoeilijken (cultureel taal administratief organisatorisch Voorrangsregels bevolkingsgroepen Franstalige project sector hervormen Senaatsrapport terecht zulke zolang Toegankelijkheid Raamwerk Kwaliteit Opvang Jonge Kinderen (OOJK) participatie bevorderen inclusie diversiteit omarmen OOJK maximaliseren samenwerking organisaties personeel opgeleid families OOJK-diensten juiste waarde schatten hen verzekeren geloofsovertuigingen gerespecteerd Pavolini E W Schepers (2013) gefinancierd (Crépin Neuberg 2013) European Quality Framework for ECEC; http://ec europa eu/assets/eac/education/policy/strategic- framework/archive/documents/ecec-quality-framework_en pdf overgang kleuteronderwijs betrokkenheid proces ontwikkelingskansen Vooral erkend bezorgdheden vragen essentieel gezinsondersteuning buurtgerichte samenwerken transities (thuis kleuteronderwijs) verlopen belemmeren Gezondheidsdiensten bijstaan schadelijke gezondheidsdiensten (kwalitatief kwantitatief) echt ‘brede scholen’ jongeren openheid verankering gemeenschap? Iedereen erover breken vicieuze armoedecirkels (anders uitgedrukt: opwaartse mobiliteit) onmiddellijke moeder diploma verlaten oog preventie prioriteit ongekwalificeerde uitstroom ongelijkheid ingrijpende gevolgen prestaties onderwijssysteem PISA-onderzoek jammer aantonen beknopte bestek dieper ingaan tal organisatorische opwerpt focus korte basisniveau Gemeenschap Federatie Wallonië-Brussel beleidsdomeinen sterke gradiënt verdieners gezondheidszorgen uitstellen wegens kosten; https://ec eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/ index php?title=Unmet_health_care_needs_statistics Baye (2016); Witte Hindriks publicaties recent tendensen Franck stelt samenhangende beleidsmaatregelen “basiswelzijnssokkel kinderen” onafhankelijk eenvormige wenselijk voorwaarde succesvol realiteit partnerschappen heden richting aantrekkingskracht Alhoewel denken ambitie volledig volwaardige maaltijd degelijk rijzen idee snel geschoven schoolplichtonderwijs boeiend rechtvaardigt: “Finland voorziet schoolmaaltijden prebasisonderwijs bepaalt wetgeving 1948 Gratis toekomst; onderhouden schoolmaaltijd pedagogisch instrument tafelmanieren voedingscultuur eetgewoontes bessen volkorenbrood melk (mager vetgehalte) ”19 experimenten 78 kleuterscholen (écoles différencié) schooljaar 2018-2019 zog projectoproep veralgemeend kleuters ideale externe voorbereiding leerkrachten slaagkansen creëren leraren daartoe zaak noodzakelijke competenties (vanaf kleuterschool) kansarm milieu: benaderen taalbeheersing duidelijk vertrouwensrelatie vertrouwd instelling ‘school’ huidige gewapend eisen gesteld http://www edu fi/yleissivistava_koulutus/hyvinvointi_koulussa/kouluruokailu/kouluruokailun_historiaa privatisering bijkomend facet dualisering verdiept degenen waken schoolmateriaal basiscompetenties verwerven basisonderwijs qua vraagstuk technische beroepsrichtingen aanzienlijk schoolreizen vergen reflectie draagwijdte uitsluitende kern eigenlijke schoolcurriculum liggen ‘maximumfactuur’ (MAF) secundaire betalen uitgebreid Gemeenschapsbrede Pacte d’excellence doelstelling geleidelijk progressief eerst vervolgens soort rol: ‘onderwijskosten’ ‘onthaalkosten’ uiteraard intentie concreet Culturele schoolsite artistiek cultureel sportief tijdens vult sokkel verplichte schooltijd bod creëert optiek school’ leer- leefomgeving rond troef Huizen Huis verbindt inzetten preventieve bekampen werking refereren provinciale scholennetwerk Antwerpen ontwikkelt KOALA-werking lokaal samenwerkingsverband aanstaande KOALA ‘Kinder- OuderActiviteiten Lokale Armoedebestrijding’ groepsgerichte kinder- ouderactiviteiten ‘plussubsidie’ Sinds KOALA’s slag totaal 500 plaatsen ‘kinderopvang plussubsidie’ zette (Office Naissance l’Enfance) op: Précarité périnatalité 2015-2018 Daar oprichting Maisons l’Enfance overleg projecten bekommeren wereld onderdelen schoolervaringen outreaching voeren geïntegreerde onderwijsgemeenschap brugfiguren buurten bruggen bouwen scholen) Reaching out arbeidsintensief Gewestregeringen overwegen subsidiemechanismen reaching efficiëntie geleverde subsidiemechanisme hoeksteen ‘alliantie kinderarmoede’ Zo’n alliantie gedeelde kortweg Kinderrechtenverdrag motivatie beleidsniveaus betrokken beginnen topprioriteit kinderdeprivatie ministers/minister-presidenten sloeg anti-armoedeplannen (die kinderarmoede) minister-president plannen orde armoede/deprivatie Hetzelfde Nationaal Kinderarmoedebestrijdingsplan (2014-2015)23 dusver http://cohesionsociale wallonie be/actions/lutte-contre-la-pauvret%C3%A9 mi-is be/sites/default/files/documents/plan_national_lutte_pauvrete_infantile_0 Federaal (http://www miis be/sites/default/files/documents/plan_federal_de_ lutte_contre_la_pauvrete_2016-2019_0 pdf) Vlaams Actieplan Armoedebestrijding (https://armoede vlaanderen be/?q=vlaams-actieplan) Pas masterplannen omvatten geïnvesteerd REFERENTIES: (2015) Inégalités élèves structurelles Fédération- Wallonie-Bruxelles L’apport l’enquête PISA Eduquer 2015/ (n°114) 10-12 Belgian Senate Report Child Poverty Informatieverslag betreffende Gemeenschappen Gewesten gezamenlijke land; Sénat Belge Rapport d’information necessaire l’autorité féférale Communautés vue developer approche commune infantile notre Zitting 2015-2016/Session doc 6-162/3 S Chr Decent Incomes the Poor: Which Role Europe? Journal Common Market Studies Volume Number pp 240–256; DOI: 1111/jcms 12486 Maes Vanheukelom T Betaalt terug? Leuvense Economische Standpunten 2018/168 Crépin F Vécu attentes d’origine étrangère l’égard structures initiatives parole donnée précarité financée Fondation Roi Baudouin Impactberekening kinderbijslaghervorming KU Leuven januari M Bie OCMW Leuven; Acco Kr J (eds) (her)vormende Itinera -C juvénile rédigé Parlement Gordon D Najera H Pomati ‘Towards measure child deprivation’ indicators research https://doi org/10 1007/s12187-017-9491-6 A-C P (forthcoming) Micro- macro-drivers deprivation countries poverty Belgium Lahaye Vranken I Rossem R (eds yearbook InZichten ACCO Leuven/The Hague The new system family allowances Wallonia: distributive effects see https:// researchgate net/publication/316828914_THE_NEW_SYSTEM_OF_ FAMILY_ALLOWANCES_IN_WALLONIA_IMPACT_ON_POVERTY_AND_ DISTRIBUTIVE_EFFECTS C ‘nieuwe 0’: armer Coene Raeymaeckers Hubeau Goedemé Remmen Haarlem Uitsluiting Jaarboek Iets gelijker helaas Barometer Energiearmoede (2009-2015) (3de editie) Monseur ethno-culturelle amplification Quels apports données l’analyse Paris Conseil d’évaluation système Lafontaine Structure éducatifs équité éclairage international Crahay (Ed L’école peut-elle juste efficace (2e éd revue collaborateurs augmentée 145-173) Boeck parcours âgés champs d’action parentalité l’accueil SA Dedicated Matthew childcare use: matter policies or preferences? Public Policy 25(6):878-893 Pacolet Buffel V Segaert Vanormelingen Coninck Wispelaere Beeck L Progress implementation Recommendation Investing children Social Network (ESPN) Country Profile Unia L’enseignement reste inégalitaire selon l’origine ethnique Brussel: Hoog alarmbel trekken Sampol: Samenleving politiek n° (December) 4-11 Nederland: kleine welvaartsstaten Vierendertigste Pacificatielezing Breda November 13140/ RG 14550 34888 armoede- verdelingsimpact kinderbijslag: akkoord Regering mei 2016 CSB BIJLAGE LIJST AFKORTINGEN LANDENNAMEN (niet-EU) EU-SILC-landen Samen opdracht verandering innovatie dienst cohesie zet maximale realiseren stimuleert doeltreffende filantropie ondernemingen Integriteit transparantie pluralisme onafhankelijkheid respect solidariteit waarden Haar actiedomeinen rechtvaardigheid engagement talenten democratie erfgoed ontwikkelingssamenwerking opgericht 1976 toen Boudewijn koning Dank schenkers gewaardeerde Abonneer u e-news goededoelen Volg stichting nut info@kbs-frb 02-500 Giften IBAN: BE10 0000 0404 BIC: BPOTBEB1 werkelijk gestorte PUB N°

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Towards a European Social Union The Pillar of Rights and the Roadmap for fully-fledged A Forum debate Edited by Maurizio Ferrera Introduction Conclusions Frank Vanderbroucke Contributions László Andor Bea Cantillon Francesco Costamagna Caroline De la Porte Sacha Garben Martin Heidenreich Anton Hemerijck Trudie Knijn Manos Matsaganis Graham Room Chiara Saraceno Waltraud Schelkle Andrew Watt Torino Centro Einaudi 2019 Contents General presentation 1 Rights: from promise to delivery 2 Vandenbroucke Crafting – roadmap 12 Timely Call 27 Challenges ‘united in diversity’ 40 Vladimir Bogoeski (Social) is need ‘Social Imbalances Procedure’ 47 Corti Sebastiano Sabato Bart Vanhercke 54 as “union national welfare states” 64 Union: addressing challenges on labour market 70 Revival Europe 76 Union? Rokkanian-Mephistophelian remark 84 Who’s afraid contribution ESU 93 all 113 Snakes ladders road 119 social justice 131 union should address causes growing inequalities 147 How can protect citizens member states? 157 spillovers just transitions 160 new Commission must convince that 169 alive kicking CONCLUSION: boost building 177 Creating Link In 2013 coined notion (ESU) order clarify our thinking about so-called dimension EU This expression contains three implicit messages First it invites us propose clear-cut institutional concept contrast elusive ‘a Europe’ Second indicates we go beyond conventional call dimension’ if today’s has no whatsoever Third explicitly suggests what needed not Welfare State but precisely founded two principles On one hand states remain responsible organizing interpersonal redistribution among their citizens; other they take up commitment sustaining forms tangible solidarity themselves collective entities adoption November 2017 elections Parliament May constitute unique opportunity relaunch enrich marked point return: either will be sufficiently convincing recognizable success or high-profile failure Given political cost an eventual those who care politics now work interpretation maximizes its positive potential For this initiative have impact policy-making first condition powerful It connected way with functional necessities broadly accepted aspirations integration; fit into consistent conception role play policy idea provide fertile context search specification such raison d’être pointing both possible justifications practical opportunities encourage facilitate conceptual link between EuVisions launched introductory contributions followed comments various authors purely theoretical Participants course discuss conceptions raisons also explore potentials reference options concrete proposals closed rejoinders ‘ESU-debate’ Council jointly solemnly proclaimed set 20 equal access labor fair working conditions protection inclusion Some are well known already been formulated earlier efforts coordinate Member States’ policies Other relatively at scene objective ensure adequate minimum wages communication was ambitious: said “delivering more effective rights citizens” President Juncker called agreement “to avoid fragmentation dumping” launching isolated event: fitted broader evolution Over last five years steered away emphasis fiscal consolidation economic competitiveness which dominated immediate aftermath financial crisis 2008 Already Commission’s Investment Package signaled broaden EU’s agenda Below radar issues became gradually important Semester process Official reflection papers roadmaps future Monetary underscored completion EMU tackled thorny problem posted workers announced creation Labor Authority So conceived instance gradual cautious deliberate shift level However may turn out decisive moment longer-lasting consequences – negative Positively become sustains real momentum lifetime fails deliver enshrined backfire frustration generates undermine any attempt equip comprehensive long time come Thus solemn proclamation marks Obviously jury still final verdict maybe At writing introduction there straightforward reason why out: realm democratic cannot predict how declaration after next Nevertheless given reader surprised I ‘interpretation’ (‘Does speak itself?’) my choice words purpose powerful: Yet I’m calling debate: whether agree promising Pillar’s tested means When declared “primarily euro area applicable wishing part it” focus Eurozone happenstance; monetary motivation related Since understand relationship briefly elaborate basic insight gained prominence recent nearly existing unions true ‘insurance unions’ They only centralize risk management regard banks unemployment insurance exception developing driven mutual notably progress towards Banking Next argues needs stabilisers; achieve would re-insurance benefit schemes Another option seems prefer scheme supports public investment capacity when hit cope reduced revenue increased spending benefits1 fact share common wit automatic stabilisers times whilst simultaneously protected these scenarios happenstance: purchasing power downturn therefore ‘automatic stabiliser’ par excellence Existing opt downright centralization (like Canada Germany) demand some convergence organization degree reinsurance centralisation really high US combine decentralisation insurance) rational behaviour reasons pooling enhances resilience against asymmetric shocks second applies symmetric across whole States added value per se National systems create externality; country properly insures itself helps neighbours Therefore concern stability entails cluster sustain stabilisation each State: generous benefits; sufficient coverage rates schemes; segmentation leaves force poorly insured unemployment; proliferation employment relations integrated insurance; activation unemployed individuals; constitution budgetary buffers good so do bad These fortiori imperative quid pro quo were equipped More contention corollary conceivable risk-sharing triggered (e g guarantee considered Commission) But even without implementation ‘stability-related’ upshot argument unification beneficial key features participating necessarily flat denial developed See (2017a) pp 25-26 (2017b) 1316 allows valorizes diversity (Schelkle 2017); ‘convergence’ (not: uniformity) ‘some’ (in domains domains) Admittedly 1990s reform markets justified advent 1997 Employment Strategy emphasized supply-side flexibility: flexible interwoven individual development ‘enabling’ policies; together ‘flexicurity’ nutshell adds ‘stability’ desideratum ‘flexibility’: terms avoidance large stable wage income thanks coordinated bargaining2 Whilst flexibility focused equipping people skills action: bargaining organisation devices Stability requires instruments typically vulnerable individuals: stabilises economy because protects intrinsically associated action ‘protective’ Enabling protective mutually reinforcing creating resilient That matter addition calls competitive goods services cross-border mobility (including form ‘posting’) regulation posting regimes transparent predictable universal Single Market 3 understood translation integration standards subsequently language immediately emphasize overstretch functionalist rationale: ‘needed’ ‘imposed’ (or Market) Space forbids develop relevance well-organized EMU: see 2017b Watzka 2018 analytical carefully distinguish (i) ‘social corollary’ (ii) Market; partly overlap different Reflection Paper Dimension April insufficiently clear depends normative drive project (Vandenbroucke 2017b) We talking requirements abstracto; considering serve fundamental upward prosperity cohesion fundamentally (2018 issue 12-26) arguments ‘free-standing justification’ authority survive prosper diffuse support belonging jurisdiction; rests effectiveness fairness: “Citizens feel (…) government abides general norm somehow representing interest taking sectors/strata population however weak peripheral ” statement analytically coherent politically differentiation received number underscores observation Pillars addresses legitimacy goes My summary account shows multifaceted nevertheless points priority areas initiatives taken basis Access (notably feature ‘Access workers’ principle speaks mobile non-mobile highlights fairness driver right launch ‘access protection’ parallel pity ‘hard’ legal then scaled down softer recommendation (European 2018); challenge give bite consider Labour highly relevant: enforcing ‘fair mobility’ embedded well-regulated similar vein improvement Written Statement Directive proposed answers fight gaps independently intrinsic life balance wonder picked ‘work-life balance’ showcase willingness An improving work-life enters sensitive least evident regulated notwithstanding merits contributors forum disagree me preceding section highlighted (albeit briefly) intellectual coherence remains handicapped absence domain very could hear ministers saying responsibility EU-level Such confusion debates phenomenon happenstance although omnipresent ill-defined ambiguous mean ‘protecting domestic (liberalizing of) further Europeanisation’ ‘more supranational initiatives’ Hence simply stating contribute begs question: do? trying deliberately started use Union’ Suggesting incorrect counterproductive coordination security health safety workplace directives non-trivial acquis fifty piecemeal solid foundation non-discrimination premised steps build stage respond than ‘adding coincidence historical legacies institutions As explained below primary believe organise borders; main mechanisms States; refer logics rather strategies (space upon latter idea) There specific aspects rethink application subsidiarity within ‘union states’ apply organising Solidarity necessitates same harmonisation generally practice far removed top-down one-size-fits-all approach core summarised follows: systemic functions (stabilization function earlier) guide substantive via objectives leaving ways consensus operational definition ‘the Model’ countries cooperate explicit purpose; hence desirable necessary unless drop concerns shared To make analysis say leads definitive version depending judgements brought bear ambitious less project; based Nor table uncharted territory: clarified (2018) develops his vision congenial helpful: he starts premise place diverse pieces ingredients aim something federal state found federations ‘holding environment’ flourishing holding environment Returning initial subject wonder: vocation defined level? answer question nature ‘rights’ tend conceive primarily enforcement entitlements rightly understanding rights: “Following tradition Max Weber define sources (Machtquellen) distinct types resources back actual exercise Holding having legitimate claim compliance others: horizontally fellow workplace) vertically authorities treatment administrations) Secondly resources: obtained right-holder activate coercion Thirdly instrumental availability full case example sets networks provides information advice procedures accessing delivering benefits While type (enforcement) makes (and extension citizenship) contemporary liberal-democratic societies underestimate importance types: especially former operate ideational motivational while actualization adjudication courts law know adopts binding norms indirectly impinge citizenship directly does (if through soft law) particular suggest citizen empowerment result initially exploit systematic Building typology presented argue presupposes combined implement principles: legislation; benchmarking; funding macro-economic surveillance explains think dissociated (In respect content joint Merkel Macron 19 June commentators made it; obviously kept ) short ‘roadmap delivery’ complementarity well-considered selection Which priorities? debated References Baute S Meuleman B Abts K Swyngedouw M Measuring attitudes Europe: multidimensional Indicators Research 137(1) 353-378 Marchal Luigjes C (2017) Decent incomes poor: Journal Common Studies doi:10 1111/JCMS 12486 Deepening Economic 31 (COM(2017) 291) New Euro Area framework Communication Central Bank 6 December 822 final) Proposal Recommendation self-employed 13 COM(2018) 132 12-26 (forthcoming 2018) piece (ed) Policy Play Brussels: Observatoire Européen W solidarity: experiment Oxford: Oxford University Press F in: Barnard Baere G (eds After Crisis Cambridge: Cambridge Structural Convergence versus Systems Competition: Limits Diversity Policies ECFIN discussion paper 065 Directorate-General Financial Affairs Brussels July https://ec europa eu/info/publications/economy-finance/structural-convergence-versussystems-competition_en Overcoming Fragility IMK Report 139 end 2-11) “roadmap delivery” (EPSR) want pick invitation proposal bold turned view start simple yet farsighted step: linking creative blocks available levels under symbolic umbrella accompany free standing “political” justification move mainly terms: improve performance EMU; rebalance values Treaties add badly well: re-stabilize polity providing “glue” restoring “togetherness” thus legitimation Piecing lot ambiguity widely used term argued designate definite entity similarly vague Model ‘names’ lump horizontal (“le dans l’Europe”) vertical (“l’Europe le social”) clarifying connection interdependence division synergies outlining system governance reconciliation sides involve far-sighted linguistic innovation precondition institution pronounce birth counterpart: year sealed valuable step forward enough wider container certainly comprising EPSR coterminous ‘exists’ fill empirical contents reassembling Here tentative list ingredients: 1. ensemble display notable differences correcting ranges risks covered faced cases adaptive changes Moreover increasingly differentiated service sectors revealed profusion programs regional local distinctions ten blur giving rise instead hybrid mixes approaches (Halvorsen Hvinden 2016) intra pluralism contained above (their dialogue Treaties) (sub-national hybridizations) close territories jurisdictions component forthcoming Spaces 2. characterized element Most regions territorial cooperation another interesting front (mainly partners) occupational pensions Transnational 3. novel membership space –coterminous external borders bearers enjoy ‘title’ bestowed them choose settle Starting 1970s had structured since 2011 directive regulates patients Let Mobility 4. regulative (re)distributive funded budget imply spending) hard proper sense 5. Lisbon Treaty including allocate responsibilities decision- making field supremacy over rules guides four components flux spaces keep predominant boundaries porous interaction dynamics plastic margins experimentation Prior overall hybridization partial clearly slow moving likely (Hemerijck 2013) current decade largely reversed trend (Andor 2017; Palier Rovny today rescue enhancing steering capacities sync reinforcements Addressing implies rethinking (EMU) limit reciprocal externalities If according devise broad template capable pan-European qua tales) centered traditional regional/local) observe (such United Switzerland) (Obinger et al 2005) bottom took constituent units barely problems Although delay compared unitary central able standardize and/or establish ex novo construction entirely developmental i e backdrop extensive nation limits supranationalization predicted Stein Rokkan many ago (Ferrera 2019) unprecedented “coming together” allowed maintain ‘legitimate diversity’ (Scharpf 2002) committed adaptation criteria open engage own fed semi-automatic “own resources” apart multi-state implicitly signals presence modicum federalism inter-territorial transfers architecture ESU-building adventure scale dubbed “holding environment” “a zone matched competent painful mitigate stress thereby uphold integrity pressure mobilize overwhelm reforms disciplinary intrusion” comes child neuro-psychiatry (Wincott 1964) elaborated sciences serves engaged spite divisive forces generated work” (Heifetz 2009 p 305) Resting mix goals collaboration pressures country-specific recalibration indeed –on word “environment” evokes above: “space” (more meta-space) senses citizens/residents outer border frontiers tying participants pursuit obligations wide By assemblage Gestalt overcome ambiguities once (hopefully) integrating underlying ‘solidarity’ justice’) dimensions: trans-national dimensions potentially clash inevitable provided recognized reconciled consequence multi-level allowing network (rather hierarchy) links favor adjustments internal articulation lose sight inter-institutional mentioned counterpart Unions logic ‘institutional complementarity’ re-assemblage require demanding exercises imagination What grand visions circumstantial ideas seeds wedges change decades Seventies Eighties generate trial error detailed consensual blueprint design ran experimentations incremental innovations ‘snake’ System 1979) Even though ‘name’ aspiration brief above-mentioned fall scope remarks latest policy: arm principles? suggesting fate coming most ingredient appealing) status text ‘principles rights’ specifies reaffirms present Union’s dedicated measures legislation legally enforceable led mere phrase-mongering (see review positions) judgement too hasty gauge significance clarifications exactly? Following fellow-citizens non- discrimination holder liberal- Courts Amartya Sen repeatedly crucial During famine “right subsistence” worth anything assuming strict intervene food where happen reside (Sen 1981) Especially certain situations conferred transformed “ableness” (Morris 1987) Finally let forget judicial imposes obligation practices existence Court Justice hold imputable noncompliance confers merely procedural substantial guarantees law-making de facto almost right-actualization offers array legislated subnational Many underpin intra-EU EURES ERASMUS EHIC) others complement strengthen structural funds sector- Globalization Adjustment Fund (EGF)4 Aid Deprived People (FEAD)5 Youth Guarantee acts expanding leveraging linked Regulation establishment (ELA) illustration consequential grass roots seen sort intermediary 4 Globalisation established 2006 losing jobs major world trade patterns due globalisation company shuts production moved outside global 5 (FEAD) 2014 material assistance deprived accompanied (Madama preamble pertinent articles Art Preamble that: “The efficient outcomes responding aimed fulfilling people’s essential ensuring better enactment rights” formulation ‘guiding’ nicely relates dimension; ‘ensuring implementation’ facilitation appropriately strategically exploited despite character prior pave Figure offer visualization might look like Pan-European feasible? agrees rest guided criteria: institutions; delicate thornier wake Academic discussions topic concentrated rested defending rejecting) principled desirability cross-national deep ties try (efficient effective) functioning single “social corollaries” market-correcting centralized “visible hand” Both acknowledge ultimate pan-EU underlining governments spelling exactly obstacles skirt implications ESU? Is outline freestanding proposal? tenet theory variants territorially organized collectivity members evaluative orientations structure motivating self-interest Historically came nurturing feelings Just peace instrument serving facilitating managing conflicts generalized ultimately “keeping little doubt currently suffering crisis: populist parties questioning Brexit going tear extent specifically component) re-legitimation antidote centrifugation? hinge interest-based approval contingent output democracies abide voters’ eyes significant “it popular demands (specifically: stabilizers) re-establish ESU’s re-establishment ipso vehicle re- stabilization Though shoulder Diffuse Citizens takes One indictments Eurosceptic formations represent interests rule Note matters distributive beliefs (the EU) credibly inspired Along becomes objection situation (let alone construction) solidaristic aggravate solving Any “Transfer Union” increase embitter around genuinely disguise) broken propositions: • lacks cultural preconditions sense) strategy involving solidarity; extant conflict constellation Euroscepticism direction feasible propositions thesis ‘permissive consensus’ ‘constraining dissensus’ opinions emblematically represented (Hooghe Marks 2009) empirically grounded constraining dissensus focusing opinion side soft-pedals played elite mainstream elites) prepared terrain tends overestimate depth realistic resulted choices mistakes being self-inflected And equally predispositions meet critic’s increasing body data hypothesis mass survey conducted Fall 2016 EU-funded REScEU Pellegata 2017) majorities Germany Popular larger promoting investments helping severe poverty help experiencing majoritarian six survey: Spain France Italy Poland Results confirmed covering Austria Cyprus Greece Hungary Ireland Netherlands Portugal Slovakia (Gerhards YouGov (Genschel investigation Pew Center pro-EU “mainstream” voters (as opposed supporters “populist” views left right) Sweden (80%) (72%) (68%) (53%) (51%) Counting undecided respondents reach majority (Pew Survey handled suggested ‘silent majority’ supporting realignment togetherness created represents elites shown RESCEU much solidarity-prone forthcoming) elective (choice based) partnerships looking onto families nations leaders fraternal nudging ‘socioemotional leadership’ idioculture difficult fluid relationships self-seeking behaviours rational-legal (Brint 2001) opposite emphasizing difference apartness communities denigrating symbolically mechanism historically rule-based formalization authority: recipe undermining maintenance put safe “polity maintenance” pursued safeguarding survival durability Several enhance discussed Vandenbroucke’s transfer-oriented socially friendly complementarities actually thought bridges passing strengthened steer Conclusion official presumptive disputable Those nurture clamorous disappointed formal already-existing elements achieved small changes: discourse act ‘naming’ smart packaging remember did big bangs: few exceptions beginnings quite modest Institution redistributive Conflict served cement alliances disadvantaged promote exchanges rulers ruled irreversibly intertwined claims intersected critical contingencies Deal America World War II leaps bottom-up movement interests/wish incumbent preserve consolidate face acute unrest dire emergencies vocal players Europe’s arenas seem souverainisme reveal majorities’ hoped find suitable candidates run-up train miss probably huge mistake L Divergence reformed EMU? 15th Annual ESPAnet Conference http://espanetlisbon2017 eu/) Brint (2001) Gemeinschaft Revisited: Critique Reconstruction Community Concept Sociological Theory Vol No 1–23 programme ‘Preparatory Child Scheme/Establishing support’ [Commission Decision C(2017)5615 16 August 2017] Registrar Awards https://www regiostars eu/node/243 [accessed 28 05 2018] (2005) Boundaries Integration Spatial Politics Protection (2019) Disproved Vindicated? Rokkan’s impossibility democracy DOI: 10 1177/0958928718804932 Can Be Reconciled? Citizens’ View Milan www resceu eu (forthcoming) soon Resceu website Genschel P Hemerijk Institute Brief Issue 2018/01 Gerhards J Lengfeld H Ignácz ZS Kley FK Priem Strong Solidarity? BSSE Working Berlin Sociology 37 February Halvorsen R (2016) Combating Poverty Active Inclusion MultiLevel Multi- Actor Context Cheltenham Edward Elgar Publishing Heifetz RA Grashow Linsky (2009) leadership: Tools tactics changing your Boston Mass Harvard Business (2013) Changing (2012) necessity unifying Intereconomics vol 200-206 Hooghe Postfunctionalist Integration: From Permissive Consensus Constraining Dissensus British Political Science 39 Madama Deprived: contested contentious (but successful) pathway WP/06 Morris (1987) Power: Philosophical Analysis Manchester: Manchester Obinger Leibfried Castles FC Federalism Experiences Disunion? Consequences Manow Schwander Democracies Party Politics: Explaining Electoral Dynamics Times Capitalism 277-296 Western Populists tap Anti-Establishment Frustration Have Little Appeal Ideological Divide at: http://www pewglobal org/wpcontent/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/Pew-Research- Center_Western-Europe-Political-IdeologyReport_2018-07-12 pdf a-changin’”? european pillar reality check Vanherke (ed Observatory ‘Towards preliminary Recommendation’ Bouget D Trade 73-96 (1981) Famines Essay Entitlement Deprivation Clarendon Scharpf (2002) Model: Coping Cologne Plank MPIfG 02/8 Legitimacy Intermediation Multilevel Polity Collapse Planck für Gesellschaftsforschung Necessity Urgent Programme Progressive Economy 1st 45-49 2-11 (2014) Tough Nuts Crack Background report Friends High-Level Group ‘Social Union’ https://pure uva nl/ws/files/2554065/161167_475562 30 03 2016] vs frankvandenbroucke nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/292 06 GD Wincott (1964) Family Outside London Pelican program timely again sharpen mission slowdown bound revive memories threatened multiple disintegration Today post-crisis period prepare post-Brexit era heal wounds believes easier solutions inside previous every block anymore freely deeper intention granted reluctance deepen attributed variety standard Austria) raises fear downward adjustment opposition politicians threat (Orbán went hardship divergence (Spain Italy) bring conditionalities sanctions ones fourth higher Dutch day ready assemble rainbow coalition deepening explored origins Delors’ Compact: original virtue 1989 Charter Fundamental Workers landmark Former Jacques Delors knew gain He acceptable cycle devoting Cohesion establishing employers (‘social dialogue’) ‘Delors Compact’ later supplemented (2000) “2nd edition” 2020 (2010) Compact progressive obsession Maastricht model nominal (low deficits low inflation) indifference costs late produced endeavour reconcile currency Various exist stakeholders Open Method Coordination esteem programmatic life-long learning continue measurable Occupational Safety Health female participation East-West imbalance enlargement east raised questions feasibility geographical divide productivity Rounds enlargements imbalanced heterogeneous predecessor obstacle 119-130) news East West slowly resolved average GDP growth figures expectancy extraordinary decline experienced Eastern happening regarding models sustained coupled run solution dumping legislative activity past often exposed controversies Upholding pivotal eastern ones) rebuild human capital lost constant migration Besides active Roma arguably biggest Countering North-South killed leading dramatic disparities North South quote (2019 93-112) “the critically naïve theory-in-use inter-dependence net” High youth NEET 2011-3 saw indicators behind legacy incapacity deal banking crises striking inequality deprivation Supportive sector recovery centre circles) nothing repeating disasters calibrated sequenced Preventing core–periphery Brexit: reflections reconstruction overshadowed UK referendum complicated smallest damage usual clichés dropped automatically trickle groups English metropolitan felt disenfranchised economically UKIP reinforced egocentric Tory ensured directed Westminster Contrary stereotypes experience « » refrained advantage tools (ESF) municipalities facing (EGF) producers downsizing decided (now FEAD) caring visible Britain attitude contributed alienation eventually victory Leave vote Consequently lessons tackling imbalances collectively stronger favour instability supported competences recently perceived inability trends deindustrialisation flows suffice jeopardising EPSR: game changer? confirmation Jean- Claude revives meaningful developments Presidency: eastward return spirit improvements quantum leap endorsed Gothenburg (Sweden) overture functioned ideological incorporating three-chapter third chapter construct 1980s subsequent cycles practically identified consultation helped alliance welcome technocratic meant backwards accounts withdrawal numerical targets never officially cancelled amount attention before guiding diminished paradigm rolled emblematic document SIP delivered guidance homelessness stressed illusory side-lined rediscover recycle scoreboard October tool demonstrate periphery socialising done heart 2010 plays method weight recommendations Zeitlin socialisation required updated documents 2012-3 period: White Pensions generating tackle Perhaps item modelled additional Subsequently inspiration long-term parliamentary story demonstrates occasional amendments improved standards’ (applicable Union) ‘national floors’ (with adapted country) Whether best channel Experts ambivalent co-existence appears underestimated perhaps expectations bias toolkit connects Within budgets expenditures cent total Out category narrowly receive Needless rival centralise compartment vital incentives reforming designing ground workforce training reaching depend concentrate invest closely aligned endowment ESF MFF 2021-2027 maintains allocation short- considerations reduce implemented (23 cent) post-2020 absolute Due merger smaller EUR 100 bn name: “ESF+” confirms threshold fund exclusion size envelope designed audited examples money allocated trace Without limelight connect reminds surveys everywhere strong greater concentration robust unemployment” populations Poland) count deemed experts differ greatly Thomas Piketty co-signatories quadrupling allow reduction sounds quantitative qualitative volumes Unemployment caused great inherent devaluation root cause flaws lack “Economic” definitely “Social” 2012 (two pillars permanent ESM etc incomplete outstanding deposit assets amending mandate ECB Making Fiscal talked self-evidently cover partially pool cyclical promoted Sebastian Dullien stabiliser direct reducing innocent victims recessions aggregate during downturns net studied analysts Together genuine 250 million employees enter community well-designed rules-based transfer ‘surplus countries’ stabilise Adopting chance agreement: positions significantly closer German finance minister Olaf Scholz advocate Arguably highway lead knowing post-2008 product business employee well-being companies adapt environmental ownership employees’ particularly useful co-ownership operating jurisdiction metrics evaluate companies’ impact: methodologies reporting enterprises allocations start-up microfinance) overlooked ongoing Campaign Wages setting influence importantly response wage-setting disruption pre-crisis agreements longer-term declining counter campaign Wage Alliance outlined sought guaranteed floor decent pay undertaken Guaranteed (at fighting relevant floor’ expected Going 21st century digitalisation robotisation effects technological Jobs OECD fresh constantly updating international partners task economics monitor competition commonly agreed brings base Vandenbrucke underlines: “A massive industrial nets built All arms counterpart” using Reports death exaggerated Obituaries premature fallout drama deficit deepened questionable mortal always weaker footing gap widened contributes confidence changer round actions concert Countries catch confident Where tighter fields federalist followed-up lacking publication EFOP Europa Solidarieta Tra Pilastro Sociale derive sovraniste Eurilink Ten Lessons Decade Debating EUBS: Robust Findings Myths Remaining Dilemmas Volume 52 May/June Number · 159-164 https://archive intereconomics eu/year/2017/3/ten-lessons-from-a-decade-of-debating-an-eubs-robust-findings-popular- myths-and-remaining-dilemmas/ ESU: 93-112 Katseli Louka T Rasmussen Poul N Sustainable Equality: Well-being everyone sustainable Independent Equality | 2019-2024 socialeurope eu/wp- content/uploads/2018/12/SD_ProgressiveSociety-SustainableEquality 119-130 Ocampo José Antonio Joseph E Stiglitz eds Revisited Columbia Our manifesto save Guardian theguardian com/commentisfree/2018/dec/09/manifesto-divided-europe-inequality-europeans “European debate” Jonathan Socializing Semester: co- ordination Public 25 Pages 149-174 tandfonline com/doi/full/10 1080/13501763 1363269 Taking core–periphery seriously 2-1) timelier stone Revision Posted (PWD) adopted austerity eurozone academic strives substantiate vaguer political) conceptually interpreting (policy) maximise engages on-going envisioned academics policymakers undertaking afford disregard top priorities inherently interrelated desired ‘social’ differentiates categories reflect achieving ideal several noted happened read signal momentum’ Carpe social) prominent namely Revised lasted atmosphere reminiscent Iron Curtain ever-closer divided low-cost rising continent (mis)interpretations sidestep chasm treat compromise PWD opted Milward 1992) finding attempts provision determinacy rejects justice’ (Micklitz 2011) rationality wealth distribution granting providers (MS) arrangements socio-economic cultures else Understandably elsewhere Foundational freedoms resonates contributing protecting won’t Posting old deeply rooted MS counterparts unequally Beyond off ideally (Hamerijck 2013; backed transnational thrive essentially limiting imaginative indicated polities bridge chosen battle (Samuel Moyn mention shut pre- re-distributive aware pitfalls rationale normatively unfortunate epistemic trap pursuing justifiable Because midst following Ferrera’s observations necessitarianism ‘dignitarian’ fairness-based decoupled regaining join) paving Rethinking reconstituting exclusionary creates impression affect entrench line dividing discern failures ELA vulnerabilities structures (from periphery) favourable exploitative core) enabled located pre-existing living vulnerability dependency structurally agency impairs successful tracing southern substance presuppose 147-156) pre-distributive constructed perpetuate hierarchies injustices (Kukovec 2015) Equal unequal ingrained DNA withstand efficiency cost-benefit tests counterbalance (remember Viking Laval) Questioning critique (juridisches Missverständnis Rödl predominantly minimalist tendency replace ‘minimum level’ ‘good quality’ (Pillar Arts 11 18 20) International Covenant Cultural housing fuller bodied egalitarianism (Moyn 2018; Florian Hoffmann Despite quality renders egalitarian (distinction Determining ‘in light conditions’ 6) relativise sufficiency adequacy Sufficiency unlikely combat reimagine include productive auxiliary substantiating Its accompanying regarded inspirational directions discussing enforceability justiciability Outlook reconsider restructuring’ kind Tackling (both eastern) reinvention offered starting (Saraceno reproducing Kukovec 2014) naturally sector-specific (EGAF) Regarding EGAF research proportion affected EGF financing (Clayes Sapir mitigation imaginable prevent alternatives ‘European Pact Progress’ (Rödl priori dangerous References: Claeys Fund: Time reset Bruegel http://bruegel org/2018/03/the-european-globalisation-adjustment-fund-easing-the-pain-from-trade/ (Oxford Future Bhuta Futures Human (Collected Courses Academy Law) (OUP Hierarchies Law 21 Periphery (2015) 406 Micklitz H-S Private (EUI Rescue Nation-State (Routledge Not Enough: Unequal (Harvard Alternative Constitution Hien Joerges (eds) Responses Euorpean Cultures Eruope’s Example German-Italian Discrepancies (RSCAS Soziale Rechte Europa: Von irreführenden Versprechen und notwendigen Kämpfen WSI-Herbstforum 147- 156 stimulated vivid rich challenging forward: interpret (Bogoeski 40-46; 2-11); conceptualize 12-26; 93-112); 27-39; 160-168) analyses (Garben 76-83; 70-75) (Cantillon 54-63; 119-130; 64-69) pointed progressively subordinated meta-coordination apparently sharing characteristics ‘soft governance’ (OMC) prescriptive (Dawson ‘country- specific’ theoretical) penalties ‘back forth’ scrutiny intervention intensified peer altered voting novelties profoundly (Vesan ‘socialised’ (Zeitlin & persisting asymmetry Against background investigate subordination ‘economic’ (EU) monitored analysing monitoring macroeconomic (dubbed ‘Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure’) ‘preventive’ ‘corrective’ supervision problematic E(M)U deterioration spill-over countries; loss credibility prudently tried ‘socialisation’ Macroeconomic Procedure ‘Strengthening EMU’ seemingly preventing Similarly September 2015 newly appointed MIP Scoreboard reflecting capturing undoubtedly visibility draw policymakers’ achievement becoming factor strike strands? Jean-Claude ‘triple rating’ ‘as triple reiterated Five Presidents’ Completing (April) (November) interinstitutional Scoreboard’ performances resolve affects range young people; education (NEET) alarming Southern regions; persistent childcare lifelong opportunities; Fransen suffers estimated €142 billion year: €15 €70 €57 affordable formidable Semester) ripe flagging repackaging relabelling (SImP) procedure a) erode b) detected early corrected corrected: healthcare c) d) e) strictly consist stages identification SImP (possibly refined) included accordance annual Joint displaying ‘critical situations’ (i excessive imbalances) encouraged request decide ask applied Multi-annual Action Plan (MAP) drafted plan contain initiatives/reforms (over three-year span) interventions forms: technical defining — Reform Support Service SRSS coordinates tailor-made services) this; Delivery Tool Operational Programmes co-financing rate ESI focussed ALMP infrastructure); ‘silver rule’ exempt Growth provisions Country-specific Recommendations Country repeated non-compliance MAP SGP extra Three Procedure: concerned spill threatening sustainability refers champion retrenchment distrust movements promises adopting serious ambitions 27-39 V 40-46 54-63 64-69 Dawson displacement Constitutional Review 14: 191–209 70-75 del Bufalo Reviglio Boosting Infrastructure Task Force Investing Discussion 074 76-83 Spasova Integrating Committee Vesan Mission impossible? seminar January 160-168 25(2) prioritizing 14 well- initiatives? well-conceived sensu lato combination benefits) harmonization “principle based” policymaking: stated Until 80’s evolved complex grew dawned nor Gradually ambition replaced preferences deploy shaped effectuating ‘input’ ‘outcome’ With eradication loose measuring (Atkinson ‘eradication poverty’ strategic goal aiming persons jobless households Regrettably failed Goedemé Hills strategy: non-binding abstraction factors control over: dependent things single-parent distance ‘outcomes’ ‘policy input’ Only sophisticated simulation isolate society outcome welcomed overly divergent balanced “Equal market” ”Fair conditions” “Social inclusion” precise room packages nuanced input falling ‘one-fits-all’ pause struggle symbols mountain bore mouse leverage (ESU)? everything rollout moral exploitation appropriate assumptions contend “everyone dignity enabling (re)integrate Normative pragmatic Catering Ever disappointing reached extremely in-work out-of-work inadequate worrying poorest exclusively spent items (Goedemé discrepancies Europeans enormous floors deteriorations crisis-hit Adequate earners firmly anchored equivalent embedding Effective anti-poverty Anti-poverty accessible age obvious gains translate tax credits get poverty; ‘inefficient allocation’ paid poor work-intensity households; advocated tilts prevention compensation” healing doing faces platform places guaranteeing irrespective status? eligibility rules? proposes outlines universal; introduce children elderly; render contributory actuarially fair; means-tested (housing incomes) volatile earnings; obtain accurate earnings Clearly “gendarme” commitments facilitator securing lifting successfully poverty: decoupling flexibilisation sluggish demanding: considerable cost; trade-offs drivers skilled progressivity taxes redistributions raise (Collado beyond) join wages) poorer Hemerijck’s : Minimum Compacts Solutions ante Through + aims playing field: layered operation assumes receiving charitable organizations belong (re)insurance aptly says “ bounce recover sizeable 6. Delivering strongly instrumentally Successful “affordable” vice versa regards tensions involved strengthening ‘make pay’ other) 7. secure stay 8. compact greatest fulfill lever intensifying puts “citizens peripheral” reasoning emerge ‘support jurisdiction’: “decent all” pan- 9. “building blocks” EU-2020 Like re-assembling minima kinds supplements ESF+ 10. recurrent theme Implementing history limited sick disabled elderly mothers EU-countries distinguishing American NGOs alike numerous occasions 1992 Council’s ‘common concerning systems’ (92/441/EEC) (Council resolutions Agenda 2005-2010 ‘Active Inclusion’ excluded occupies Resolution further: stresses integration’ ‘adequate 60% median concerned’ maintaining combating participate undertake work“ wage“ recommended hallmark slogan “Decent Incomes All” proud there? “while resources“ along lines illustrative priced baskets participation’ “output governance” “input violate cherished Incorporating thought-out linkages turnaround benchmarking frameworks guideline processes EU-wide moderate effort behalf inevitably compass ethical Certainly solved: meaning ‘adequate income’ countries? supportive take? timeline foreseen “enforceability”? proclaim Reconciling reduction: OxfordOxford Collado Van den Bosch Vandelannoote cheap talk closing all: Europe/Cantillon [edit ] (pp 223-243) All: Improving 93- 112 Paulus Sutherland Tasseva seven EU-Countries decade: tax-benefit Hufkens Gasior Leventi Manios Rastrigina O Verbist Hypothetical Household (HHoT) EUROMOD: comparative (No 05/2019) JRC Papers Taxation Reforms perspective prospective intended comment orientation shaping deals deriving emphasised clarity avoiding contradictions “rebalance toward Treaties” re-legitimize “restoring ‘togetherness’ support” Operatively imbued dose realism claiming assembling already-existent modify confer traversing albeit well-defined convincingly meta-space endowments backgrounds credentials loci ideate carry activities “combat […] justice” cohesion” Article TEU referred sure perform autonomy Indeed inception negatively affecting victim EMU” duly observed “reduce independent manoeuvre amplify originating country” regret prescient envisaged “countervailing policies” compensate levers eruption ensuing fully materialized entrusts dismissals squarely exclusive competence powers variable treated Supplements MoU prescription urging Greek “compensate ruling (equivalent percent GDP) pension reforms” decision Supreme cuts breached Convention (‘ECHR’) depriving pensioners troubling transformation constitutional constellation: cornerstone model’ compensated strains relying yoking allegedly consistency bases rely coordinative comply touching wage- Specific “broad guidelines” 121 TFEU identifying results Rather guidelines narrow paths deviation ‘right way’ salvation “[t]ake cost-effectiveness patented medicines implementing Roll activity-based throughout hospital system” readily nominally retaining engender inferred 288 hard-law adopt power- complying bailout escape creditor underpins default governing attached “mixed parentage” combines Memoranda Understanding (‘MoU’) whose dominant rejected private applicants seeking annulment addressed alleged disconnection lies decisions rejecting requests rulings submitted excluding applicability (‘the Charter’) prospering prioritization EMU-related 9 TFEU) surely panacea bringing elaboration programmes proceed path proposing spelled possibly palatable Florescu judgment (C-258/14 dealing package 143 compatibility Romanian reviewable 267 mandatory “constitutes institution” vest abandon suffocating conditionality contemplated Ex post urgent negotiated 7 472/2013 timid draft “into formation concerned” “fully 152 Charter” advisable Operationally feed assessment beginning demonstrated carried mostly praise Finding ‘socialize’ organizational Undeniably attainment doubtful prioritisation ‘socially- oriented’ marginal adhering ‘traditional’ hardly surprising smooth consequently fiddle unclear pointedly irrelevant “serve Semester” renewed correct distortions biased competing promotion centralised stabilizers ease emancipating sole legitimization payment polarised surrounding in-depth recalling posited conferring concurred dissented possibility institute ‘equivalent’ envisage payments eligible short-term exceed According scholars “less useful” viable 352 TFUE free-standing normative-political “… (… identify characterize embody inclusive empowering boosting embodies (updates to) intentions maintained guard precarious analyst undervalued capability mid-1990s diagnose (through data) (on states) recommend coordination) trajectory (active) strongest resource consists knowledge exchange (best) experiences underlined EPSR’s challenges: reconciling family deadlock ‘most non-standard work6’ (hereafter work’) Eurostat 64) 61% 72% (Eurostat survey) parental leave child-care sphere introduced parents emulated sieps se/globalassets/publikationer/2019/20192epa) Based promotes targeted carer terminology fixed-term part-time temporary gendered market-related penalty women career progression (Esping-Andersen 2007) breakthrough area: revised provisionally encourages gender equalizing introduces paternity fathers/equivalent days earmarks least) months Denmark childhood (ECEC) 2002 benchmarks Strategy: 33% 90% until school ECEC extend relation Commisison underdeveloped earmarking exemplifies knowledge-exchange work’ digitization labelled ‘4th Industrial Revolution’ virtually job Put differently casual zero hour contracts voucher-based update ‘written statement’ atypical digital literature dualization (Hipp 2015; Emmenegger 2012) increases transition open-ended prospect obtaining contract anti-discrimination (relative hours worked) comparable worker rigid decrease (de 2017: 300–301) Twenty ‘non-standard’ part- 2017a) 91/533/EC ‘work’ ‘worker’ ‘employee’ whereby inform written manner includes remuneration entitlement terminating stipulates reply employer revision prioritize delineated here show rapidly engagement footprint determined agendas meets Nordic Model” Swedish (SIEPS) 22 downloadable from: se/globalassets/publikationer/2019/20192epa? Fixed-term Work: Putting Brake Dualisation?” 27(3): 295-310 Esping-Andersen (2007) Incomplete Revolution Launching COM 127 8 March Staff Document phase Partners 154 (Directive 91/533/EEC) SWD (301) COM(2017) 797 facilities ”The pillar: Previous therein ‘interpretations’ ‘perspectives’ (Knijn 113-118) 54-63) Fortunately otherwise succumb disappointment proof showing agenda-setter turning akin Hoping publications market’ social’ failings spin Better reviving Treaty’s Title sometimes confusing ‘blend elements’ (Plomien 2018): subsumes (Work-Life Balance 92/85/EEC maternity Parental Directive; Predictable Transparent Conditions Directive) Authority) furthermore deploys mixed insightful incarnations administration impacting contradictory rationales: quantity (iii) process; (iv) science-based governance; (v) proportionality ill-informed paint picture unequivocal de-regulation businesses regulatory pursue non-economic Govaere obligatory Impact Assessment wide- spread Evaluations poses reliance quantification non-quantifiable civil ‘Better watchdog’ hamper drastically changed turns head deploying methodology upgrade entire ‘fitness purpose’ identifies holes missing thereof) plug (making arsenal) amalgam old’ new’ concretely evaluations worried services’ hands seized revise builds findings REFIT evaluation exposure chemicals Carcinogens Mutagens follows Work-Life Commission’s Maternity mentions expects complete Directives effect Partner Framework Agreements fixed- Pillar-related thereof lend credence Regulation’s evidence-based underpinning neutral prescribe: administrative burden event pleasing revival Market’ Social’ criticism Euro-crisis 2019– displacement’ (Kilpatrick deplored (Barnard explanations staunchly defended narrative continues streak ‘economic equals outcomes’ Triple Rating’ alongside ‘equal drawn whom legitimised configuration -with ensures moreover decisively struck democratically executive decision-making respectively CJEU decides prohibitions restriction (often interpreted pure freedoms) displacing upwards re-regulation exceedingly ‘liberalized’ Court’s 2010) severely constrained executives checks balances re-empower legislator vis-à-vis judiciary picture? cannot) deficient (either initiated CJEU’s motion amendment) adjusted stance Elektrobudowa Regiopost leeway host impose precedence protections v port AGET Greece’s redundancies Legislator managed amend e-card yearly follow-up (along oriented ‘hard cases’ easily viewpoint trade-off Anti-Poverty Network noted7 eapn eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/EAPN-2017-EAPN-CountryReports-Assessment-1133 ‘shift taxation’ Furthermore Euro- effected Troika auspices executive-dominated excludes dealt necessitate signing-off social- re-packaged reared onset precarity underline meagre Temporary Agency Work arduous negotiations well-known displacement: leaning ‘Liberal Economy’ position judgments parliaments proven hurdle Early Warning raising) testimony Liberal Economies Brexit- commentator ‘entails society’ effectively ‘implemented’ celebrate ‘Restricting Restrictions: US?’ 68 575 ‘EU Past Present Future’ 67 Current Legal Problems Regulatory 53 1209 ‘The (Im)balance EUConst Effectively Displacement?’ 210 ‘The Meaning Significance’ Yearbook Agenda: Critical (Hart Kilpatrick Displacement Productive Lens Inquiry’ (1) 62 redo 113-118 Plomien Gender Rights’ 17 (2) Society 281 Asymmetry Why Cannot Economy”’ Socio- 211 ‘After Crash: Perspective Democracy’ 21(3) ELJ 401 ‘Socializing Semester? Governance 2020’ SIEPS pillars: questions: Did impacts integration? colleagues? environment”) imped “double dualisation” (Heidenreich 2016; fractions younger older unskilled migrant determinants benevolent Nobel-prize-worthy double dualisation abolition (Preunkert buffer northern insiders outsiders (which termed dualisation”; Northern identical Great Recession (8 % Germany’s (26 0 %; une_rt_a) percentage facet native qualified exemplary (20-25 years) prime-age (25-54 2005 (Figure 1) composition (Italy Ireland) indicating (mostly) rose segmented relative temporarily employed 32 earning 24 prime facets indicate decreased nation-states 2008/09 (Beckfield 35pp 30pp 25pp 20pp 15pp 10pp 5pp 0pp 2: Age low-wage job-insecurity Source: EU-SILC 2005-2015 calculations Sven Broschinski Matthias Pohlig calculated binary logistic regression controlling household parent person adults coefficients figure probability ‘crisis ESU) mechanisms: Functional requirement “insurance union” centralises “not legitimise glance legitimating strenghtening overlook functionally committing classical fallacy Basically Europeanisation Mundell (1961) Friedman (1997) Researchers Currency centrally debt defaults bank insolvency (Shambaugh lender resort recapitalisation (“banking union”) endebted (“European Mechanism”) Unfortunately institutionalisation immense reliable confuse “solidarity States” misleading extending usually analysed self-interest: “We comprehend ‘solidarity’’ vouching ‘solidary’ ground: convictions particularistic (Bayertz 1999 8) reported Häuberer institutionalised ressources prerequiste realisation previously assume empower pre-Weberian works Rokkanian dynamic boundary structuring 2003; Flora 1999) acceded famous article 50 Treaty) events reflected difficulties (2016-2019) exits prohibitively revitalise Currently disputes Balkan Leaving customs manufacturing industries chains tarifs non-tariff barriers delayed supplies interruptions ports Dover Calais Sir Rogers Permanent representative (FTA) damages economy: “Where 80% tradeable fastest trade; FTA Canadian exports (Rogers 14) exit (for Drachme) sovereign devaluatem debts denominated Euros sum prevents indicator chaos none wealthy well-organised globally succeed frictions harder nation-building (2003 615–616) distinquished phases “bounded structuring” “State modern insights Weberian asking emerging cleavages struggles cosmopolitain populist-national (Kriesi 2006; Kriesi Pappas class 19th insurances cosmopolitain-populist- nationalist cleavage brutal decade-long somewhat mephistophelian logic: “Power Always wish Evil Good” (Goethe 2003 56) rights? dominate parliament) longer projects retirements refugees migrants) voted react loosers winners (Recchi Fourth liberalisation insistence ordodoxy redefinition (“whatever takes”) (Article 125 destructive Fifth booming desindustrialised rural “gilets jaunes” (“yellow vest”) protests consciousness worlds Mephistopheles advisor architect “illiberal democracies” eurosceptic xenophobic antisemitic walls forcing universities independence designating terrorists chancellors Nazis servants “unelected bureaucrats” cosmopolitains “international elites” nowhere” “party Davos” “Jewish mafia” trouble-makers speculators “foreign agents” alienated compatriats rection (Fetzer England risky constructing am Summit Bayertz (1999) Four Uses “Solidarity” (Ed 3–28) Dordrecht: Springer Beckfield (2006) Income Inequality 71 964–985 https://doi org/10 1177/000312240607100605 Remapping Comparative 486–509 1177/0020715209339282 End Europe? History 94–99 Regional York: (2003) Citizenship Structuring? 36 611–652 Fetzer Brexit? (Warwick series 1170) Coventry Retrieved Warwick website: http://wrap warwick ac uk/106313/ (1997 19) Euro: Unity Disunity? London: Routledge Do state?: Evidence 677–700 1177/0268580916662385 Goethe Faust: Kline (translator) Delaware Poetry Translation Exploring 1–21) Northampton MA: Grande Lachat Dolezal Bornschier Frey space: Six 45 921–956 Populism (Eds populism shadow recession 1–19) Colchester: ECPR (2017 26) Initiative Ouest http://international blogs ouest- france fr/archive/2017/09/29/macron-sorbonne-verbatim-europe-18583 html optimum 51 657–665 economies spend Knowledge ageing ex-ante capacitation ex-post compensation untold regime ‘disciplining device’ Re-engaging capitalism passed nadir aftershocks unleashed blessings: rerun Depression avoided adversely illiberal Romania confront existential precipitously grace even-keeled economy’ fostering tandem fueled anti- globalization discontent chauvinism anti-EU parliament ‘double commitment’ rescued ahead? assertive bolstered countenance ‘efficient hypothesis’ falsified momentous crash threadbare protectionist backlash? prominently debate’ craft Matsaganis’ warnings ‘snakes ladders’ detours ahead Reflecting prospects embark “excessive procedure” Italy’s Cinque Stelle Lega flat-out rejection lower earily synch Ongoing blame gaming debtor keeping afloat Additional finger-pointing refugee frontline unaffected anxious homogeneity trampling bode enlarging Still ponder (EMF) rainy infrastructural facility layer Are endeavors vain? Matsaginis Lord Beverdge wrote reports (1944) Winston Churchill’s ending war crafting postwar Good expedient wasted Searching exploration handy appear heed Beveridge diagnosis follow suit Concurrently pace transformative demographic techno inescapable fast-forwarded constitutionally no-bailout lowflation prerogative architects disciplining ‘wasteful’ cognitive inertia prevented generation makers recognizing heterogeneity joint- raising proviso apparatus behavioral behavioural constraints myth sovereignty runs arena strongy audiences expertise hegemonic market-making philosophy two-level institututional relegating finally unto electorates sentiments fearful path-dependent privilege advocates persuade socioeconomic evidence grounds undoable codified articular paragraphs staying prevailing cognitions learnt Eurocrisis finish Untold sentiment shape sound finances inflation Soon proved Kingdom salvage ‘too fail’ heavily implicated credit bubble burst Lehman Brothers Overnight quickly restored sobering break procrastination collapse unorthodox principally feat mid-twentieth engineering mistakenly hindsight absorb Northwest Finland surprise post-war Keynesian-Beveridgean shock-absorber ‘buffer’ macro-economy micro-level Ignorant proficiency harked stagflation advocating deregulation presumption ‘moral hazard’ ‘adverse selection’ predicaments thwart cost-containment trending earner activating surprisingly proficient (especially worker) dismantling Notwithstanding Danish successes instantly relegated ‘exceptions subtractive marke lean (OECD 1994; liberalization ‘supply side’ revolution macroeconomics riding Act (SEA) naïvely presumed inescapably discipline 3% consumprive outlays foster weakness preempt quandaries festering (Pisani-Ferri undershot ECB’s target Mediterranean struggled fortuitous catch-up continued adhere conservatism easy financed troubled scenario unfolded secured entry ‘structural reform’ waned borrowing excessively Paradoxically acted ‘reform tranquilizer’ enact houses capacitating insider-biased male-breadwinner pension-heavy reveals interdependent manage contagion sovereigns duress trapped “bad equilibrium” unable incapable mitigating countercyclical fragmented dampening (De Grauwe Unsurprisingly ‘straightjacket’ divergences (youth) (child) widening intergenerational defeating prescribed IMF spilled backlash ‘creditor’-countries tightening straitjackets ‘debtor’-countries fueling depression 1930s ‘buffered’ shock proficiently dared breach doctrines treaties announcement Outright Transaction (OMTs) bond spiral interference detrimental dynamism vengeance blessing disguise troublesome underway conjures gaping failure! Global Competitiveness Index (WEF) high-spending hovering Ronchi equality (we reverse Gini index) country’s surface circle ‘bigger’ state) equity Arthur Okun (1975) advanced record bigger spenders encompassing attain (dashed line) continental Netherland Czech Republic caught prowess lie buffering’ capabilities intensity intimately negativo Belgium ‘welfare predicament: worryingly correlates presses cognitively ‘size’ selected (year Note: bubbles graph proportional ranging ‘smaller’ Latvia (14 ‘biggest’ (31 dashed (raising Prioritizing swath ErasmusPro Skills assessing A’ uncoordinated ad hoc what’s (youth-)unemployment ‘auxiliary’ Six-Pack (2011) Two- Pack prescribing lip ‘default’ subjected intense lipservice ‘revealed preference’ defend ‘productivity-enhancing’ ‘participation-raising’ ‘employability-friendly’ ‘family-capacitating’ prosperous equitable tied quick fixes inspiring incisive advancing ‘re-insurance scheme’ breathing asymmetrically acting stabilizer pre-eminence Beblavy safety-valve intrusive alternative fall-back intimate affinity Capital Markets framed Mario Draghi Recent completing highlight risk- offset losses recession-hit performing parts borrowers overriding Keynesian lesson unavailability absorption risk-reducing actors trials tribulations Mechanism (ESM) OMT ratios uniform resolution shifted stabilize exent evidently buffering comparison generalize partaking twist utmost predicament acknowledges impinges designs cohorts working-age concedes minimal routines attachment youngsters disproportionately borne brunt Somewhat confesses ‘space forbids’ him 2002; 2014; 2011; demand-side reinsures demand-deficient surveyed discard macro-level (female) dual concur urgently redress ‘bad equilibria’ gears (quantity) (quality) taxpayers geared maximizing employability ‘carrying capacity’ expansion women’s quarter work-income-family nexus ‘lynchpin’ skill-biased divorce lone-parenthood (economic independence) prerequisite Absent possibilities externalizing numbers ‘broken careers’ postponed motherhood resulting fertility life-course (capacitating) (ALMP) (WLB) (paid) schedules (LLL) long- (LTC) transcend compensatory income-support originally (predominantly male) (stable) exigencies personal transmission ‘capacitate’ individuals investing career-life complementary edifice: ‘stock’ capabilities; easing ‘flow’ transitions; (3) ‘buffers’ Aggregate corroborates portfolios Evidently referring intelligence aptitude prioritised conservative-liberal interventionist gave primacy undistorted intimate; individually disposition undergird periods childrearing frail ‘inclusive’ employment-related ‘flows’ deregulated optimal satisfactory ‘family reconciliation’ (re-)regulation (gendered) compulsory secondary embraces ‘lifelong’ acquisition Inclusive gender-family-balanced ‘stocks’ produce synergetic longitudinally aggregative wellbeing economists believed Again expansionary realluy aggressive asset price inadvertently weakening (Rajan low-employment male breadwinner combinations (exposed sector) moderation worklife breadwinners flanked correctly fast requisite Eurozone-wide impetus reinforce forster sequencing layering convergent bolster Exempting stakes tide fashionable tragic conjectures ever Amsterdam edifice stepping stones 2000 judge milestone well-functioning well-balanced portfolio ‘fair-playing-field’ provisos ample devoted ‘capacitating’ disabilities Consistent argumentation vouch reinvigoration discount (SGP) consideration vantage jealously guarded clienteles remit adaptable family-friendly careers conceivably engaging ministries directorates expert committees virtuous expensive unfortunately reflex stock press jealousies Granting (within bounds) enable future-oriented infrastructures skill upgrading truly overwhelming Meditarrenean enlarged discounting struggling commit exemptions abandoning ‘buffering’ medium-term educational governance? Very so; Politically substantively underspecified discretionary wiggle-room year-to-year clause looked suspicion fiscally austere Hanseatic League member-state resurgence That’s freedom inter alia female) centers radical vocational Slovenia ramp regressive Finnish aid incentivise bandwagon reassure touches conundrum short-span electoral Voters informational retrospective) inferences Likewise elites’ craving emerged emit attention- disadvantage (Jacobs shielded tussle horizon Monti purportedly “trade generation” temporal inconsistency anticipated precursor cumulative credible attract likes Vitor Orbán Jaroslow Kaczyński contours pass invoked ‘legitimate appropriateness accountable (mis-)fortune What’s met water governments’ EU-skeptic right-populist ardent defenders post-1945 ‘native’ nationals proclaiming retirement 65 protectionism ban conjunction bidding farewell conservatives Between on- overnight ‘political-institutional vacuum’ (Marks straits Scylla Charybdis Pressures disenchanted resist abiding compromises Italian coalitions Enrico Letta Paolo Gentiloni infrastructure pride barred confronted passive lowering indebted measure stagnation home-grown protracted panned Looking magnitude hangover dismal institutionalized implication suststaing opening putting token cut constrain men carrying crowding elementary plead conclusion pro-actively administrations align stocks monograph quintessential transform contrasts sharply truthfully commits bonds integrates civilized (re-)insurance conditional (temporarily) breaching anticipation intricate issue- policy-linkage self-evident political-institutional cum live involves short-run costs? apriori listen area’ IZA 5: Gros Masselli ‘Reinsurance schemes’ CEPS (Januar Centre Full Free George Allen Unwin Ltd Fragile Eurozone’ 346 ‘Risk-reducing Speech Florence Gallie Need scheme: Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung ‘New Budgetary Framework’ (COM [2017]) ‘Solidarity School STG 2018/1 25(6): 810–827 Crisis: Unifying Concept’ Pp ‘Beyond “Frozen” Turn Handbook Administration (edited Ferlie Ongaro ‘A Consensus’ 1-23 Jacobs Governing Long Term: Democracy (1994) Study: Facts Strategies Paris: Efficiency Big Tradeoff Washington: Brookings Pisani-Ferry Aftermath Rajan Fault Lines Hidden Fractures Threaten Princeton: Princeton Experiment ‘Foreword’ i-xvi competitin: Needs Pact’ OSE Series Opinion Visser Miracle: Job Corporatism Amsterdam: longed-for reaction market-driven expense liberal capitalist undermines degrades Maybe ‘gilets jaunes’ soaring ethos turmoil bureaucracy painting Kafkaesque point: guilty neo-liberal accentuate inclusion’ paints reaffirming employment; weighting Also careful instruments; timing poll Schmidt European-level work-related downgrading labour-related optimistic Vandenbrouckes’s fallen stalled marketisation outsourcing austerity-driven thing Members internationally accountancy taxation operations plunder sell utilities futile premiums instant shareholders (social) speculative recall (social democratic) Minister Finance Jeroen Dijsselbloem His ‘[the] [the proposal] critically’ (CNBC tv implying typical democrat movement’s embracing Presenting rent-seeking profits (Stiglitz Instead dividend regulating halting laundering north-western combining aspect compensates ‘forgotten’ union’ wants reading insurance- justice? objections balance? neglect high-quality ‘Everyone sanitation energy transport shall ’ emphasise reject denigrate entitled safeguard completely chaotic insurance-based Women over-represented amongst involuntary outsourced flexibly contracted ‘boomerang children’ returning home well-protected commercialisation ideology citizens’ female; admit constituencies dignified project? grant control: reacting wrest lives oppose (rightly wrongly) unreliable (healthcare education) speculate strategies: compete depressed forced brain drains professionals educated westward appreciation Wales Hungary) revitalisation voice organisations Work-life balance: onwards expand reserve except Scandinavian Now neglecting ‘afford’ ‘his’ supposes woman half unaffordable unprotected minimally re-familiarization housekeeping prioritising work- luxury gender-equal recognitive Reviving processes: misinterpret bottom- resistance deny ignore filling (neoliberal) comparing ‘democratic deficit’ connecting associating demos stakeholders; organised deliberative interestingly politicians’ Divide: Societies About Them Norton Burgoon Kuhn Nicoli Sacchi van der Duin Hegewald Risk Sharing Hits: Design Influences Citizen (EURS) AISSR (December Contribution Ahead time? stand-off inexorably Angela Merkel’s resignation party leader waking no-deal (not Trump Presidency) forgiven propitious imagine understandable wrong letter “how project”8 signed thinkers Jürgen Habermas philosopher sociologist Friedrich Merz favourite Christian Democratic featured labor-market insurance” “An army Europe”) stretch analogy El Alamein (November 1942) troops Africa improvised conferences kilometres shortened Ministry Information meticulously officers eagerly soldiers9 Germany” (Handelsblatt Timmins (1995) Whiteside far-fetched ideas10 suddenly topical 12- deserves joining topics: placed them; ‘worklessness’; coping transformations accelerated near automation platforms debating 2004 2007 rendered Migration ethnically religiously emotional separating fell energetic Greece) peak Europe11 quiet despair humiliation Democrat cautiously cabinet colleague Peter Altmaier thinly disguised ‘transfer (anathema “Interview mit Finanzminister Scholz: Deutschland hat eine besondere Verantwortung” (Der Spiegel “Fat euro-zone fund” William Churchill privately viewed windbag dreamer’ (cited Addison Gross prices parities EU15=100 (AMECO HVGDPR) palpable Naples Athens Munich Rotterdam stark augurs ill Does debate? prosaically kindly inclined constraint extended “Others” Afghanistan migrants Europeans) forcefully Alesina Glaeser12 European- style ethnic skin colour inhabit responses Values 1990s) Americans twice lazy” poverty” cast intransigent inversely proximity multicultural cities homogeneous Obamacare ‘Remain’ ‘Leave’ Die Grünen confirm pattern13 consistently politicians14 Glaeser (2004) 42% MPs “financial 65% widest corresponding 22% 69% colleagues concluded “Europeans altogether scientists presumed”15 (transnational) varies reported16 lowest “for prioritise ‘hand ups’ ‘handouts’ sharing17 fits attack stealth suspects Conceivably China exporting firms ‘core’ 15 45% variation ranged 70% Schelkle’s “diversity political- profiles trust her maxim unity pushing reasonable ‘veil ignorance’ preparatory topic18 Scheme’) Reinsurance Scheme “reinsurance [ faster stronger” French “would one-off subsidiary ‘Reinsurance’ ‘first loss’ activated exceeds specified portion ‘catastrophic deductible ”20 Recasting ‘reinsurance fund’ unnecessarily left-of-centre spectrum Germany21 versions locally administered reinforcement Beblavý Maselli Ábrahám Brandolini special “Designing Insurance scheme” Bénassy-Quéré Bofinger Nonetheless milestones recipients 2010- doubled entrants ineligible benefit22 qualifying relax duration above) Eurozone) US-style note manifest worked jargon economists: intensive margin short-time Kurzarbeit subsidizes employer/employee relationship23 Alternatively tightened reduced) (2018a) 23 Arpaia ‘fordist’ ‘post-fordist’) destroys (mostly routine tasks middle level) levels) ‘informal’ precarious) blurring distinction self-employment24 arising dislocations disruptive occupations millions acquire ‘problem-solving intuition creativity persuasion’ radically overhauled adult upgraded Uber Foodora couriers ‘dependent self-employed’ status) offering online offline TaskRabbit informal self- jure unfair dismissal severance sickness pensions) fashion (2018b) Autor (child allowances) (first-tier pensions); (second-tier activities) non-contributory taxing estate emissions Actually arbitrage multinationals high-tech giants level26 gig liable collecting paying speculated Tito Boeri co-authors27 26 glimpse stake Amazon inviting bid company’s headquarters scramble “238 dozen towns Massachusetts businesswomen Anchorage Alaska sent Amazon’s York City Arlington Virginia locations “at dollars breaks grants newcomers hustle headquarters” (The Yorker adaptation”28 apt splendid young) ‘academic discussion’ idle professional disconnected world? ourselves (minus ‘idle’) (self)doubt gratifying Green demanded “eight Rights” amendments) Pact) wage) “examining mid-term benefits” 29 meantime proponents twenty ago: “No passes interested imposing raw cited EGP “Adopted EU” (Antwerp 18-20 intriguingly Volt “pan-European revolutionize befits assuring “Mapping change; remove resistant Brogueira Sousa Marimon Mayr Unpublished 1945 BBC Fighting 5:10 Curci Meyermans Peschner Pierini Short fluctuations Occasional (June jobs? Perspectives 3-30 (absorption): Commentary (1 (January Brunnermeier Enderlein Farhi Fratzscher Fuest Gourinchas -O Pisani- Ferry Schnabel Véron Weder di Mauro Zettelmeyer discipline: constructive Insight Giupponi Krueger Machin Digital Presented XX Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti Pavia reform: (VoxEU (1998 108) Carta D’Amuri unemployment-based absorber 1-19 Zone Blind spots unintended economists’ 291 (1998) Le trappole welfare: uno stato sociale sostenibile l’Europa XXI secolo Il Mulino Z Berliner Studien zur Soziologie Europas / (BSSE) Berlin: Freie Universität FB Politik- Sozialwissenschaften Institut Arbeitsbereich Makrosoziologie In: Theodoropoulou pervasive austerity: Technical 16th (ESPAnet) Vilnius (30 revisiting Wirtschaft Gesellschaft 44 335-367 giants: biography Harper Collins Wood Lievens Institutional hazard multi-tiered activation: eight studies Special 137 (April implementation: revolutionary Histoire@Politique Politique culture société same? fanfare heels signs optimism; re-affirm enveloping hostility nationalism dramatically ramifications appraisal (set (to contribute) learned retains OMC notes Ministers disputing henceforth lanes slower journey destinations travel eye upcoming compelling message bind listened disaffected recognised ordo-liberalism ‘sound money’ (Blyth Reformers sorts destabilising governments; likewise eurobonds well-targeted technologies Asian tigers (Mazzucato carbon Varoufakis31 DiEM25 Deal32 Each caveats Efforts destabilisation accumulation intensify remaining trans-European removed? entail Union; handle com/commentisfree/2018/dec/13/plan-europe-macron-piketty-green-new-deal- britain?CMP=share_btn_link https://diem25 org/diem25-unveils-its-european-new-deal-an-economic-agenda-for-european-recovery/ Piketty33 correspondingly UK’s 1973 Kaldor keen captured industry (Kaldor 1971) Eventual vicious circles removing circumstances grow weakest walking stagnant enjoyed accelerating export surplus expenditure south emigration destitution34 powerfully 27-39) ignored Cecchini (1988) wisdom warning learn passions fears unleashed? Was hopes fears? arose sensed opened internationalism London-based 33 http://tdem eu/en/manifesto/ 34 lrb co uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that Midlands situation? immigration base? Immigration 77 million35 immigrants gone accommodation traditionally drew True 48 (meaning 49 million) localities residents infer causal connection? insecure abandoned?36 assured thing; bigoted misguided GDP? (Maybe stagnated benefits? undermined wealthiest suffered; Labour’s natural constituency suffered vent abandonment divides orthodoxy evenly concomitant market; assigned 35 ons gov uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration /bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016 Goodwin Heath demographics additionally marginalised lived whammy’; there; ‘hot politics’ melt-down perennial long-standing intrude prerogatives saliency electorate citizens) exchanging presidency began outdated centre-stage protection: held risks; currency’s disciplines debtors’ prison worst offenders ‘desertification’ therefore: longstanding Imprisoned straitjacket interconnected desertification MENA region north-west north- west fearing Germany37 France38 unsure peoples disenchantment convenient scapegoat cynical blaming audience’s woes distant foreigners potent brew successive Cynically peculiar Conservative politicians; Jeremy Corbyn sees attractions allow39 frame centred corporate progressives-zentrum org/politically-abandoned/?lang=en 38 com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond- france-gilets-jaunes?CMP=share_btn_link com/commentisfree/2018/dec/27/four-reasons-jeremy-corbyn-wrong-eu-state- aid?CMP=share_btn_link elements40: Rejuvenate toxic imposed Austerity insists principal 41 Government buoyancy Otherwise stagnate; revitalising predatory financialisation stimulus stagnating encouragement eurozone’s laggards expect consumers accord instinct ‘trust value-added purposefully Paris concerted embodied science contemplate bath uk/publications/from-brexit-to-european-renewal/attachments/from-brexit-to-european- renewal uk/publications/alternatives-to-austerity/attachments/alternatives-to-austerity green ‘market failure’ Rejuvenating Piketty42 corporation democratisation accountability Promote Security Creativity Reaching shifting technology enterprise high-skill Individual interruption heartland half-century solidarities defensive industrialised neoliberal knowledge-based insecurity swathes population; turbulent retained dismantled (Polanyi 1944; Rieger 2003) threaten unbridled (Piketty desserts 42 com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/manifesto-europe-radical-financial-democratic Meanwhile showed shots western Governments guarantors banks’ viability tension progressive; footloose corporations ‘race bottom’ authorities; source Streek describes ‘Debt State’; Galbraith ‘Predator State’ Tax ‘rescue demographically challenged waste scarce artificial robotics43 yield returns (Coulombe 2004) neither deployed settings aligns ‘smart Hutton (2015: Ch ‘mass flourishing’ nationally 43 technologyreview com/s/603370/robots-will-devour-jobs-more-slowly-than-you- think/?mc_cid=676bdca633&mc_eid=bc4434aad3 Re-Think Movement re-thinking: reductions consumer destruction taxable Being migrate north one’s ‘free movement’ denude ‘devolving’ incomers arrive tourism education44 fragile environments watched caretakers numbers; stewardship (Ostrom 1990) strange jealous fabric mercy arrival encouraging com/education/2018/sep/23/town-v-gown-is-the-student-boom-wrecking- 5) profit interfering globalised seeks (Supiot 2012: 4) blanket faith test correctness masters ‘four freedoms’ infuses Continent? unhelpful insist people’ ‘control borders’ intelligent conversation recognise sit obligations: expectation wherever origin situation45 respectful civilised readiness extremist fan flames rhetoric exogenous rapid ‘tipping points’ calamitous arise sudden influx ‘gentrification’ residential recognition Coal Steel re-shape nurses IT specialists invested slender forged aplenty reform46 debates47 https://theconversation com/what-the-eus-rules-on-free-movement-allow-all-its-citizens-to-do-62186 46 com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/we-can-escape-brexit-doom-with-one-small-tweak- to-free-movement com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/europe-needs-refashioning-brexit-taxation-migration checking EPSR48 neatly packaged steadily expanded co-decision appearance orderly expose enriching Domestic ignorance elsewhere; justify (Natali 2015: 248 258) grown decades; prototypes succession ‘pilot programmes’ mid-1970s (Room Rome novelty eu/commission/priorities/deeper-and-fairer-economic-and-monetary-union/european-pillar- social-rights/european-pillar-social-rights-20-principles_en normal obliged insisted Once purposes Local peers turf city decision-makers officials glare publicity 1986: exposing ‘demos’ artfully pull practitioners testify allotted spheres summoned Small ‘ever-closer markets’ creatively (2014: 16) association enjoying participatory (Leonard 1999: Rebel Cities Change): “…the ’cities change’ affirm protagonism spurious optimism incompetence ill-adapted sub-text societies; tolerance inequality; divisions ‘three cohesion; dictate emerges Europe-wide Challenge: 1992: Benefits Aldershot: Wildwood House Coulombe -F Tremblay Marchand Literacy Scores Fourteen Ottawa: Statistics Predator Brown (1971) Truth ‘Dynamic Effects” Statesman (12 March) Leonard Case Foreign Mazzucato Entrepreneurial Anthem Natali ETUI Ostrom (1990) Commons: Evolution Institutions Collective Twenty-First Century Mass: Belknap/Harvard Polanyi Transformation Rinehart (1986) Cross-National Innovation Macmillan 1990s’ Oorschot Peeters Boos Invisible Leuven: LannooCampus Publishers (MPlfG 14/21) Study Threat Lane Buying Verso Supiot Spirit Philadelphia: Total Arguing dimension” Possibly respective powerful” supra-national player unjust fairer non here) “unfairness” inequality-producing balancing “active” “passive” “enabling” “compensating” “protecting” “insuring” foremost intervening underpinned level: accessed accumulated heights unknown documented vast –in degrees Goran Therborn flexibilization strength oligarchs 10% ultra-rich 1% managers merit monopolistic bonuses traceable favorable individualization polarized detect organize diminishing retreat name self-regulation bodies oligarchic translates chances Twilight September-October https://newleftreview org/II/113/goran-therborn-twilight-of-swedish-social-democracy Atkinson Franzini Pianta: Oxon Growing s favoring inter-country inter- competition) unfairness paradox shares currency) everybody underpinnings anti-monopolistic regulations forth moves perception asymmetrical universalistic 112) navigating contest (particularly inter-countries widen words) Hacker foundations democracy’ Gilens Affluence Influence: Power 2012; Carnes White-Collar Government: Role Class Chicago: Chicago Elsässer Hense Schäfer “Government Elite Rich: Responsiveness Unlikely manuscript Osnabrück (a cura (forthcoming); Ólafsson Daly Kangas Palme adaptation” misery populist/nationalist collect dissatisfaction “losers” losers unbalances differential unregulated unwillingness hosting asylum seekers “holding” “process pooling” Or inefficiently disillusionment Re-insuring diversified crystalizing accepting thresholds measured translated PPS cross Households Luxembourg counted “older” “harmonization farther temptation feeding “cognitive joint-insurance” overcoming feeds nationalisms rules) Cantillon’s determine gets rewards collects pays Pre- Matzner Keynesianism: Socio-economics Production Brookfield 1991; Chwalisz Diamond Pre-distribution Bruxelles Carlin restructure sacrificing wholly pre-distribution capitalism: satisfaction generates; ‘good’ ‘lousy’ jobs; flexibilities focuses eliminate biases privileged enforce hazards loading CEO’s awards counter-trend inheritance familial generational passage systematize negotiation Anti-monopolistic Strategy’ (London: Available policy- net/publications_detail aspx?ID=4269 (last AG Contro disuguaglianza Un Bari Laterza Atkinson’s testament book (cit pertains busting undue privileges “soft” Emerging drafting intra- cross-country awareness eve one: Two mentioning Manifesto Manon Bouju Lucas Chancel Anne-Laure Delatte Stéphanie Hennette Guillaume Sacriste Antoine Vauchez thousands signatures 55 stipulate Democratization emissions) climate replacing “hard ultraliberalism” Consisting 4% eu/ reception agents sponsored Parliamentary Socialists Democrats (S&D Group) 56 “policies re-empowering re-shaping residence European-wide Fair group procurement recognize banking” largest stricter Corporate Responsibility Passport quoted reversing Net Wealth Transactions progressivesociety eu/publication/report-independent-commission-sustainable-equality-2019 unrealistic nationalist/populist resentment nationalistic closure consensually ; Websites: constituted tax-transfer address: reined openness (ESPR) time-honoured rights-based crucially phrase: prosper” devil detail apple pie Except finite self-exploiting evade deserve evasion disingenuous pages Surely libertarians Eurosceptics compassionate union? politician Prime finance) Under watch Duchy haven starves Juncker’s ESPR hollow blessings compatible decisionmaking push poverty? only? complementing valid Rawlsian veil heard express votes Voting immigrant welfare- chauvinistic solve puzzle ‘no representation’ confines blog stabilising Mobile well-educated well-paid well-treated jeopardized fairly recourse redistribute property stand meritocratic society: Piketty’s laboratory innovate hard-to-tax underused abstain freeriding Adding menu trick transitions57 pleasure attracted stimulating achievements thrown jigsaw under-discussed “just transition” countering flesh bones nascent separate economic” social” Right relied physical goods: interventionism distorts stymies market-led Left frequently one-sidedly producer oppression neoliberals progressives 57 benefited helpful Willi Koll Lukas Vesely disclaimer erect bulwarks encroachment seguing Neither inextricably entwined incentivises unconditional leisure) revenues Equally non-exhaustive legitimized class-based (decommodification) improves channeling it58 succinctly: La concurrence qui stimule coopération renforce solidarité unit post-1957 tightly loosely described (some “managing consequences” (See details 58 https://fr wikipedia org/wiki/M%C3%A9moires_(Jacques_Delors) affair charities) “deliver” (tighter substantially myth? widespread damaging misunderstanding unsophisticated paucity outcomes: (most all) highest Provided ain’t broke actively pitching “race bottom” influential Fritz conceptualises “negative integration” (market creation) facilitated whereas “positive (market-correcting regulation) unanimity concise Höpner 59 concern; 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priority’ She rehearse enriched repeat: ‘insurance’ Shelkle series) solidary mind union’: legislation’ selecting all’ scheme) ‘zzp’ statute spill-overs (perverse) Potentially uniquely innovative unchartered relationship… right’ confined high-level ivory-tower characterizing peer-review Principle “all enriches ‘future work’: ‘[T]he practices’ simplifying ‘nuts bolts’ future-proof nuts bolts states: obliges here; advances tables cautionary determination Policy-makers simultaneously: self-employed” unrelated cautions forgotten emergence idea: tariffs accused synergy detract contribution: Semester’s insurmountable contradiction Recall social’: presumably ‘stabilisation’ Costamagna’s terminology) over-emphasis ill-guided (OSE) published Workers’ Multiannual scrutinized (Sabato battery Among undergo check’ convinced suggestion Stefano 47-53) crux Further politically!69) allocating Setting militate 84-92) ‘functional arguments’ warns ‘functionalist fallacy’ ‘exit’ foreclosed blind touch Elsewhere functionalism arguing Cutting somewhere 69 converted ‘Budgetary Instrument Ursula von Leyen’s thoughts ‘improved citizens: applying wages… suggestion: ‘just transition’ yes waiting admittedly worry continuity: continuity worse ‘cheap talk’ side-remark complains profile Package; Barroso formed respect: announces ‘action plan’ clear-headed mobilization note: skeptical project70 observatory “operational arm” threefold: agile user presenting investigations work; 2) makers; 3) testing immodestly “ESU commendable fulfil threefold germinate seed planted culminated volume (A edited Catherine Geert Participating Frank’s REScEU’s channelling spurs warmly thank thoughtful distil advancement post-election legislature (www eu) ERC n 340534 together: worsening witnessed disarticulating polarising Dualisation “core” “peripheral” entered treacherous epoch Heidenreich) “piece “hook” (Francesco Garben) aspirational “manifesto-rights” resource-guarantees fruition hides Emphasising edged sword scattered “capital” gives institutionally triggering “wait see” mood sooner overarching purposeful “carriers” Generalising 2000s “stumbling” Then Blairs’s stumble income71 Almost prediction materialised counting random walk? expressed –supported protection; voids orienting exerted sketches (COM(2018) 132) advantages distinctive model: imprint multi- “Insurance times” emphasizes cross-territorial East- Bogoeski) –based shrewd sympathetic (Financial 2000) Samuel Brittan income- Citizen’s Centre’s “Stumbling integration” (by Bill Jordan Phil Agulnik Duncan Burbidge Stuart Duffin bears inputs formulate boldest proposal: introducing imbalance” enhancement autonomous inducing Room) reconverting agricultural forging Trudi activist mobilized meso-level intermediaries grass- needs/demands transversal preoccupation “moment” Albeit lag “socialisation” “austerianism” moment” politics: election reassuring wing performed incautious Nord Brussel” Leyden President-elect environmentally explains72 Greens) exert “possibility space” track” unthinkable Continuity Vandenbrouke pragmatism weaken Kindly “opening” “closure” highlightened summarise “defeat exitism” awkward “real” sovereignist (Salvini Pen Wilders others) “genuine” conversion (un)feasibility spatial (Eurozone) destructive) “structuring” you Weber- conflict” paradoxical integrative site producing bonding mission: risk-sharing; “active inclusion/cohesion” 72 euvisions eu/the-social-dimension-in-the-electoral-programs-of-the-european-political-groups/ beneficiaries conditionality) valorised complements socialises transactions actuarial incorporated structures- ordinary instinctual whatever happens reciprocity-based epistemically untenable a-symmetric emergency prioritizes notion: born techniques separation (assigned inter-individual redistribution) remained sub-federal cross-state subsidization) prompted survived date wise capitalise formally anchoring conception? 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CSB WORKING PAPER centreforsocialpolicy eu October 2012 No 12 / 09 The Active Welfare State Revisited Frank Vandenbroucke University of Antwerp Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy Sint-Jacobstraat 2 B – 2000 fax +32(0)3 265 57 98 Working Paper ABSTRACT This paper revisits social policy developments in Belgium the decade 2000-2010 on basis stylized facts with regard to spending employment caseload dependency rates and poverty With it focuses long-term evolution Belgian public extent which observed pattern accommodated perceived emergence new risks By means ‘budgetary effort indicators’ analysis disentangles impact demographic evolutions from deliberate shifts broad priorities In addition addresses some critical points performance welfare state such as rising number children at risk need anticipate ageing (briefly) structural changes parts health care system I conclude that preparing next wave reform is imperative this country Corresponding author: frank vandenbroucke@kuleuven be KULeuven Onderzoeksgroep Economie en Overheid Naamsestraat 69 – bus 3565 B-3000 Leuven Introduction 1 (very briefly) As reader may aware author played an active policymaking role during part period under consideration; hence evaluation based figures occasionally complemented a more intuitive assessment grounded experience always flux overview imperative; preparation should guided by set clear objectives evidence- judgment first section provide outline prevailing orientations years To end refer insights terminology emerged 1990s notably distinction between ‘new’ ‘old’ concomitant ‘a state’ past understood chapter longer ongoing story Section describes succeeded accommodating Did programmes replace traditional security schemes? And if ‘crowding out’ did occur was phenomenon 2000s or rather longer- term trend? cash benefits financial However since important driver A shorter version focusing retrospective published Françoise Thys Etienne de Callataÿ Christian Valenduc (eds ) History Public Finance Volume VII Leuven: Universitaire Pers For thorough discussion see (2001); survey reforms Vleminckx (2011); Hemerijck Marx (2010) recent challenges reports Segaert (2009 2010) EU ASISP network Jones (2008) provides interesting account political dimension economic adjustment (and Netherlands) 3 summarily sketches central topics previous explained below governments tried reconcile two strategic were deemed embody ‘active state’: maintain improve where possible adequacy benefits; enhance incentives order increase 4 present inputs serve these activation Sections 5 6 7 discuss outcomes sketch ‘benefit dependency’ labour market participation while discusses whether not performed ‘efficiently’ respect making focus particular child literature ‘new emphasizes invest linking Hence successful constitutes litmus test exercise Other than there are worrying signs warrant reconsideration our 8 briefly problem pension 9 concludes 1. ‘New’ 2000s: presentation Since mid-1990s vast body has develop Three core ideas resonate publications: advent notion investment development services Unemployment old age ill sickness disability burden raising seen constituting states have catered increasingly well Second World War category one might list following (Bonoli 2006): (i) impossibility family responsibility paid labour; (ii) single parenthood; (iii) member; (iv) low inadequate schooling; (v) insufficient coverage due canonical statement Esping-Andersen et al (2002) restatement arguments vein Morel (2012) (2013) framed terms largely sympathetic to) example lack access adequately insured insider positions second acknowledges remediate impacts retrospectively preferable prevent them occurring place through training jobseekers investing education lifelong learning Both goals addressing imply counselling alongside Bismarckian model historically belongs considered ‘cash-heavy’ sense gives priority transfers over Scandinavian contrast service-heavy orientation towards ‘capacitating’ service provision put forward third idea implies dual ambition modernizing so would cope satisfactorily needs contemporary societies ensuring its sustainability argument favour shift capacitating unchallenged scholarly debate Cantillon argues become less ‘pro-poor’ because policies budgets’ (i e budgets catering risks’) tend flow higher income groups whilst opposite true She explains fact work-related thus strongly income- related they make service- oriented; redistributive (Cantillon 2011; thesis 2011) Cantillon’s echoes fundamental tenet Deleeck’s oeuvre his 1983 book ‘Matthew effect’ (Deleeck 1983): benefit budget) middle class lower replacement functions overall equilibrium created necessary reasons legitimacy Yet Matthew effects do tilt balance summarize what exercised much research Here cite ‘risks’ listed Bonoli (2006: 5-8) ubiquitous my opinion somewhat misleading often (but always) concerns situations people control themselves their ‘strike’ Perhaps needs’ accurate phrase ‘Het totaal beeld toont een verdeling waarbij per slot van rekening onderste lagen resp niet-actieven meer opnemen aan vervangingsinkomens hogere actieven uit collectieve goederen diensten (…) Zulk totaalbeeld hierboven verklaard hand structurele culturele examine shifted risks’ delivery general (including care) last 25 It assess distributive but remains crucial question further (see forthcoming) 1999 Verhofstadt government itself task turning into called akin proposed Its aim combine risk’ preventative also emphasizing adequate cater (Vandenbroucke 1999; attempt redefine change developing complementary strategy: add ones other Belgium’s characterized status-preserving distinctions those blue-collar white-collar workers self- employed persons employees statutory civil servants Would entail radical departure legacy? Certainly course self-employed obtained virtually identical rights7 reimbursement servants; pensions incapacity been significantly upgraded These alignments additional expenditure without corresponding extra revenue Specific professional artists onthaalmoeders/gardiennes d’enfants factoren differentiële opname enerzijds anderzijds kan eveneens worden vanuit het politieke sociale besluitvormingsproces De belastingsdruk ten nadele door dezen enkel duurzaam aanvaard mate dat zij ruil hiervoor stelsel voorzieningen ontwikkeld zien hen voldoende aandeel profijt overheid laat opnemen’ 1983: 371) final effect 2001: 342- 343 inspired literature; concurrently had ideational influence beyond politics promoted conceptualization level actor launch Open Method Coordination Inclusion instance influential Why We Need New (Esping-Andersen 2002) outcome project sponsored Government There still difference basic amount supplement rank eliminated before constitutional agreed Di Rupo implemented contribution increased sector pragmatic way Thus pragmatically universal could argued doing once countering fifth Nonetheless ad hoc measures alter fundamentally legacy status-based pillars design Although mutual conception copy-paste True became key objective II government; observation profiles emerged;9 high agenda (as 1990s) But no explicit reference made discourse overcoming differentiation within featured prominently notions ‘new-versus-old-risks’ ‘services- versus-cash’ hindsight pursued (1999- 2003) summarized orientations: i. ii. create lowering taxes earned personal contributions bottom wage scale; iii. bolster competitiveness demand employers’ substituting contributions;10 growing prevalence chronic illness both support chronically quality (specific problems already Dehaene issue only took centre stage I) same emphasis expansion upgrading renewal institutionalized elderly funded federal budget beginning organization Zorgverzekering Flemish Community introduced 2001 can response archetypal reflects mixture semi-Bismarckian (it partially contributions) semi-Beveridgean offers flat rate who qualify) elements does answer consider sub-optimal choice driven breakthrough visible ‘social security’ aspect considerations efficiency space forbids pursue here 10 pledged assured implied (possible) deficits caused decreasing compensated alternative funding mechanisms iv. guarantee better protection measures; v. accommodate ‘rebound’ after austerity 1990s; vi. firmly establish future pensioners pillar sector-based view democratizing similar say (2003-2007) added implement ‘close monitoring’ unemployed; tackle early exit Simultaneously strive surpluses prepare cost ageing; option establishment so-called Silver Fund 11 challenge how successfully ‘8+1’ above representation dominated turned out continue feature post-Verhofstadt 2008-2010) inevitably involves degree hineininterpretieren case all taken programmed politically outset initial (orientation supra) relatively modest compared substantial improvements half decade12 pressure trade unions mobilization against Generation Pact moulded close interaction employers organizations Furthermore impression totally new; accelerating reinforcing line previously launched (Adnet 2002: 165) principle least reflect package scheme whereby aside separate later use; transparent credible budgetary being used (or pre-funding for) super-ministerial council’ 2004 Raversijde point Subsequently presented Parliament 2005 led formal entrenchment linkage standard living (by yearly allowed linkage) Rather detailed individual propose allows cross-country comparison conducive understanding presents just successive able deliver promise above; additionally prior onset crisis spectacular 1970s 1980s gradually approaching sustainable ‘equilibrium’ stabilized ratios (average divided average wages self-employed) stable will leave second-pillar restrict remarks 2. spending: stability 2.1. Figure shows 42 data NAI-NBB Relative GDP spectacularly 1970 14 2% 24% GDP; then declined remained until 2007 structure changed considerably: represented larger share total today 1: 1970-2011 % ‘Early retirement career termination’ ‘Other’ included ‘Working age’ Source: own calculations NBB 2008 considerable impact: percentage reaching 2011 13 most automatic stabilizing either (unemployment benefits) decrease when decreases (child …); minor traced generosity leniency temporarily unemployed reached unprecedented cannot compare OECD SOCX Eurostat ESSPROS go 2009 comprehensive definition (relative GDP) ppt according comparable weighted EU15 using base slightly three neighbouring countries (+ ppt) 2.2. Accommodating demography now turn 1985-2007 Expenditure Database (OECD SOCX) fine-grained Over illustrates relative So conceived seems archetype ‘immovable object’ described Pierson seminal work non-retrenchment (Pierson 2001) applied levels 1985 amounted 26% 24 6% 1989 again 26 9% 1993 4% 3% latest year available context periods stand GDP: 1989-93 2000-2007 (1989 2000) environment: unemployment 1992; recession 1998 onwards doubt role: we 1988 followed le retour du cœur 1989-1991; renewed meet Maastricht euro-entry criteria use divide five categories four associated risks:15 (2011) Meeusen Nys methodology uses restricted ‘public’ (in ESSPROS) function ‘old ‘private spending’ contains private includes statistics (amongst others life insurance Eurostat); why increases very rapidly ESSPROS’s (larger) ‘public 15 serves precise description care; survivor) programmes; families working including housing assistance… excluding categorized ‘new’; allowances cash; programmes’ policies16 maternity parental systems) each show covering frail expanding ‘career break’ ‘leave’ systems classified ‘traditional’ (respectively even comparisons circumspection for; Deken (forthcoming) lists difficulties partitioning ‘risk’ defined 16 expenditures programmes: administration; training; job- rotation job-sharing; incentives; supported rehabilitation; direct job creation; start-up 2: Table ‘turning points’ organize programs (% Health 0 Old (incl survivors) excl ben (of unemployment) Child Maternity Elderly ALMP Total ‘old risks’ 23 22 ‘new (old new) ‘New subsequently approached unweighted schemes neighbours post-unification Germany France Netherlands (Below benchmark ‘our neighbours’; obviously conceals different trajectories concerned profile modernized sight hallmark basically considered; main happened At aggregate indicate; however qualify time decreased words replaced trajectory recorded internal dynamics Between sum old-age reduced marginally Old-age decelerated reasons: declining weight survivor global discussed qualifications) 1996 stricter requirements women 60 65 latter measure inducing remarkable reversal trends employee retirees 915 annum 1991 1997 accelerated 259 fuelled ill- decision abolish reduction coefficients 17 654 began accelerate postponement mainly smaller contained (Festjens forecast 5% 168 500 induced unemployment-based Herremans (2006) estimates phase forms inactivity; exclude ultimately contributed Until i pensionable penalized coefficient example: entailed 25%) abolished; maintained logic behind abolishment ‘brugrustpensioenen’ constituted entry 60-64 bracket minimum upgrade older retirees’ reconnect standards registers 43 volume 1986 1992 virtual standstill six 1998) 33 S-shaped growth curve confirm Cutler’s thesis: succeed suppressing trend progress medical technology (I return below) 18 (- ppt); working-age (a comparatively (the 2007) result inevitable rebound ‘return trend’ characteristic prosperous 2007: surprisingly distress spends do; partly ‘Countries imposed constraints generally experienced about United Kingdom (after slow 1960s Canada 1970s) Japan 1980s) reason underlying dynamic caps eliminate technological change; suppressed manifestations adopted clearest price reductions noted large savings prices doctors quantity far long run cuts inherently limited reduce When falling resume cease ’ (Cutler 898) (and/or assistance pensions) quite apparent differences explain specificity extent: countries; ‘working-age benefits’ emerges heavy spender globo particularly break count offer explanation; small registered 19 30 steady erosion benefits: 1980 8% spent proportion diminished Obviously drivers (just presumably policies) calculate ‘spending capita’ capita: indices selected call indices’ RVA/ONEM indicate (loopbaanonderbreking/interruption carrière tijdskrediet/crédit temps) 08% 09% 19% comparative Budgetary (1985=100) ((Old spending)/(Pop 65+)) /(GDP/CAP) 100 92 93 78 77 ((Child care)/(Pop <5))/(GDP/CAP) 89 134 667 775 (ALMP/unemployed)/(GDP/CAP) 129 172 163 ((Family allowances)/(Pop < 20))/(GDP/CAP) 68 index review decline marked 2000; marginal earlier follow population Improvements checked downward Does inform us implicit intergenerational policy? First caveat denominator ratios: capita sources positively affected earnings presuppose deterioration necessarily contract perspective interpretation depends valuation retiree Today live claim longer; ratio matter) therefore interpreted improvement capital 65-year-old expect receive he she expected 20 ago Whether longevity regarded well-being moot am inclined increasing combination source 2012) highlight adjusted household size gradual ‘age allowances’ introduction premium lone parents disabled so- ‘yearly allowance’; dispersion selective (RKW Using individuals find child’ 68% young precondition consequence feminization documented Similarly (ALMP) match unemployed: ‘ALMP unemployed’ considerably qualifies evidence expense Except field ‘adding’ ‘replacing’ existing Moreover conceal occupational (‘direct creation’) (for regions Klerck Van Wichelen 2008) creation effective (which activation-oriented increase) service-oriented ‘in-kind 23% 34% Northern Anglo-Saxon never let alone ‘cash/services’ regrettable lacuna thinking institutional tensions polity Given adults obtain appears On hardly excluded 3. 3.1. norm After inauguration controversial limits supervision: practice permitted negotiated coalition partners annual approach offered advantage strong exerted actors (medical paramedical professions hospital managers funds) accept quid pro quo deserved drive greater modernization culminated ‘2002 Agenda Change Care’ emphasized striving professionals hospitals operational via non-linear correction linear recognition unjustified divergences sometimes though North South along regional lines signified acknowledgment predicated North-South remedy ‘split up system’ encourage choices Another 2002 Care General Practitioner (GP) topic worked detail special report Dr Karel Meulebroeke signalled start consistent efforts medicine established Knowledge (Federaal Kenniscentrum voor Gezondheidszorg) purpose evidence-based ‘health norm’ volume) unfortunate controversy run-up elections; efficiently That contain immediate management slowed down My must contrary perfectly legitimate health; rationally given importance attach healthy (Hall 2007; Murphy Topel 2006) Increasing facing good too mid-term argue fixing any indefinite bad 3.2. Agenda: perhaps revalorization Meeus Aubel concise ‘check up’ 45-54 nominal median GPs 77% subgroups profession Productivity patients GP (on + 25% FTE GP) Medical File (GMF 13% 54% GPs’ patients) home visits non-urgent cases … significant ‘fee-for-service’ mixed system: 97 remuneration consisted payments around 20% types capitation-like GMF lump accreditation ICT administration infrastructure local consultation …21 medicine: maintaining workforce serious near document persistent appropriateness relation first-line (e g breast cancer screening prescription antibiotics clinical biology imaging…) broader issue: picture newly Federal institution issued ‘performance assessment’ 2010 summarizing provisional findings follows: “In system’s accessibility; moderate safety; 21 Figures provided Ri Ridder RIZIV effectiveness preventive sustainability; curative continuity indicators [the reported caution limitations] [S]ome suggest healthcare efficient day pathways etc although signals appropriateness) ” (Vlayen 2010: 102) implementations designed promote responsible informed drugs prescribed hospitals) pharmaceuticals ‘reference prices’ generic accompanied various behaviour major cumulative aimed low-cost medication delivered ambulatory settings dramatically controlling volumes consumed campaigns ‘good practice’ guidelines National Council Promotion Quality (also 2002; Gerkens Merkur 61 110) hard gauge initiatives clearly instruments appear exert real ostensibly induce compliance posteriori’ recuperation rectifying undue diagnostic techniques medico-technical interventions appendectomy (Merkens Gerkur 56-59) Under known amount’ exhibiting outlier specified asked refund costs generated excess lot invested aftermath finally confined Consequently failed genuinely disparity hospitals: rounds discern amounts’ coincided heated inner-circle opt overconsumption reclaiming cost) prospective allocation ‘all-in relating Strong resistance blocked (although inserted possibility legislation) introducing all-in interference financing currently fees pathologies treated cumbersome bound challenged forcefully lesson learned requires convincing translated tangible incremental process proven innovative changing (albeit country) current indispensable; harder nut crack raises bargaining ‘medico-mut’) capable playing constructive transformation 3.3. Financial accessibility Historically organized fee- for-service involving out-of-pocket According Data out- of-pocket households UK Sweden 1% Switzerland co-payments reimbursable products actual reimbursed) constitute out-of- pocket components ‘supplements’ mean solidarity domain France: highly differentiated mitigated preferential reimbursement; consequently born severe conditions and/or incomes cited One Dutch reveals scores best solidarity’ ranked second’ ahead comes heart disease (Houkes Nevertheless limiting concern patient co- co-payment inhabitant take Maximum Billing (MAB) cap MAB combines selectivity universality suggesting juxtaposition ‘selectivity’ versus ‘universality’ abstract debates misguided: formula yet protective device accumulation helps Out-of-pocket official supplements (De Wolf Assuralia developed par (remaining 2003-2010 OECD) macro pose equity fairness sections Notwithstanding ‘containment’ Surveys group postpone 7% respondents complex poor background expenses relations realities urban Brussels (Mimilidis Demarest compulsory application ‘third payer’ belonging weaker (thereby eliminating prefund reimbursement) overdue Apart improving promotion Schokkaert affordability sufficient condition me elaborate upon inequality status (Van Oyen 4. typifying gather foremost (section 1) aspects side equation forget compensation side; board packages’; transition improved mitigate inactivity traps activation; 4.1. Benefit stabilization partial repair decades broaden scope till 2020 private-sector invalidity illness) temporary drawing Planning Bureau (FPB) Vil 3: Global gross salary) p 29 calculated dividing beneficiary informative token specific sub- branches compositional retired started leveled off reversed retrenchment ended confirmed FPB’s sub-categories Taken separately male female much; FPB documents 2009: came halted singles cohabitants heads) maximums branch super- ministerial momentum Mobilization wake formally entrenched decisions 2007-2009 An Net Income (NNI/cap) NNI/cap makes residual diverges employment/population non-elderly matter focused structuring beneficiaries giving halt continued minimums erode NNI (2009) considers hierarchy stalled general; shown net Next re-establish link aspiration restore principles (however leeway returning principles) Inkomensgarantie Ouderen (Garantie Revenus aux Personnes âgées) Gewaarborgd Inkomen Bejaarden/Revenu Garanti means-tested 2006 survivors re-emerged se nuanced Goedemé synthesis fit incapacitated characterize ‘residualization’) 4.2. indication determine avoiding packages disposable information (singles; parents; earner couples children; earners children) situations: full-time wage; unemployed23 benefit; maximum (below ‘unemployment’ shortcut unemployment); (leefloon/revenu d’intégration sociale) takes relevant parent ‘household income’ ‘income’ shortcut) evaluate (real corrected consumer index) expressed rough incentive implemented; simultaneously Adequacy 1999-2010 parent) Real wage) unemploym 14% 36% 16% 11% 100% 63% 70% 80% 109% 60% 84% 81% 117% 59% 93% 103% 106% 143% 87% 89% 98% 128% 82% 79% 90% 139% 72% 69% 127% 67% 22% 83% 91% 94% 134% 74% 120% CPI 57% 49% Note: Simulations months (if met) exist simulations Centrum Sociaal Beleid (STASIM model) thanks Kristel Bogaerts Four conclusions drawn except NNI/cap: single-earner saw purchasing power erosive NNI/cap; gain type (mainly ‘workbonus’) unchanged corroborate studies (Bogaerts 2008; Nevejan weak (neither absolute nor NNI/cap) Flanders tax reform) (Nevejan 35) segment note trap part-time Appendix update Bogaerts’s transitions non-employment drawn: Successive Inkomensgarantie-uitkering (IGU) enhanced fully move top-up IGU having equitable degrees effort); (with top-up) non-existent leefloon destroyed discontinuation exceeds certain depending contradictory preoccupations: fall loss full- income; motivated financially Fine-tuning applying resolve conundrum (cf infra) someone (according ‘progressive re- scheme’) boost seem incapacity) Reluctance behalf engage together interest advisors disappointing 4.3. turn: monitoring harsh sanctions Employment Conference September 2003 schizophrenia decentralization placement responsibilities availability decoupled Now reconnected inter-institutional cooperation agreement infamous article 80 code regulated systematic suspension whose ’abnormally long’ mechanism said brutal consequences (exclusion right warning look work) sub-category women) (since incorporated strategy) Article regulation covers initially under-50s) sanctions) works preventatively essence imposing punitive framework stricto sensu definitive exclusions 2009-2001 (5 906 cases) 30% 2001-2003; apart exclusions; 2009-2011 640 (RVA/ONEM) unsuccessful Cockx ‘transmissions’ national agency variety contraventions regulation: transmissions ensuing closely Finally mining drastically fight fraud resulted unrelated 5. 15-64 (data Clasen caseloads assistance) follows displaying peaked 1990 Then climbed peak flattening dropped boom apparently interact communicating vessels offset Despite slight banner diminish 4: Older exempted seeking ‘Unemployment’ summary Denmark table data) adding Caseload aged 15-64) Work Early (i-iv) 27 underscores among study Relatively namely substantially downside German Swedish performance: coin hinges contributors displays dependent regime 2030 (black line) 65+ 15+ (grey adult (15+) (dashed grey (changing) institutions: non-employed economically heyday breadwinner 5: Calculated Studiecommissie Vergrijzing supplied FPS Security Nicole Fasquelle Christophe Joyeux Guy Camp contributing 40% 1970s; nearly 1984; fluctuating 95% 1996) explosive change: constant reflecting mass Additionally rely familial (In trends; explanatory factors markets absorb baby boomers aspiring mid-1980s 1984 1994) market; returned (nearly) 1975 peaking manifested (de facto officially promulgated) Henceforth steep acceleration scenario assumes influenced 64 entitled big shocks hypotheses steadily Two observations moving ‘equilibrium configuration’ insofar interrelation continuation becomes pervasive push upwards From dependencies satisfactory What interruption decided government? dotted 85 (instead 86 scenario) 94 95 scenario); Report thank available) series pre-crisis 101 0) 90 results salaried important) negligible path reform: waves positive ‘volume’-impact neutralized ‘prize-effect’ pensions; 6. Individual employment: frozen landscape hysteresis joblessness 6.1. rates: gender educational attainment Walloon Regions brackets 2000-2008; comparing 2000-2011 2000-2008 highlights compares age-education sub-groups mentioned brackets) forecasts judged optimistic concerning reaction Neefs 55-64 paragraphs mention tables request (ppt) Wallonia (changes Belgiium 25-34 35-44 25-64 M V T Low-skilled -17 -11 -12 -4 -2 -7 -3 (-12 5) (-9 (-6 7) (1 4) (11 (4 9) (6 (-4 (-1 8) Medium-skilled -6 -0 (-2 (-0 (2 (9 3) (14 2) (0 High-skilled -1 6) (10 (-3 (12 (7 -15 -16 -5 (13 (3 (8 (15 x ≥ ≤ -10 -19 -9 (-14 (-7 (18 -8 Steunpunt WSE 6: Comparison (between (difference BE-EU15 FL-EU15 WA-EU15 (-8 (-13 (-11 (-15 (-10 -13 recovering shock (conflating age) attainment) youngest generation (25-29) suffered full ages skill cohort low-skilled numbers younger grow likewise Added voucher boosted Possibly strikingly men negative high-skilled 54 medium-skilled 44 cohorts 49 men) age-specific: generations declined; position secondary education) 41 skilled; assume counterparts Due skills outspoken 31 holds age: 50 sobering Even EU15: age/gender low-skilled; reality (much lags EU15) applies workers: over-50s Wallonia; over-55s across ‘problem profiles’ discrepancies averages age-related; primarily skills-related headcounts; converted equivalents European LFS obtain: ‘full-time equivalent’ 56 Hoge Raad Werkgelegenheid hours extensive shorter-working linked extensively administrative Geurts Already certainly actively jobs 28 mature sound entitlements safeguarded merits attention successes associate Service vouchers large-scale shifting (Gerard originality pathway lies open collective subsidized expensive operation Besides ‘buts’ consideration bottlenecks remain: nationwide age-related easy unambiguous causal Elements economy offering come fore emphatically possibilities Pact) shortcomings (unqualified inadequately qualified outflow) arises remain yield despite contributions? Activation ‘but’ probably inevitable: cheap consistency naive belief ‘bonuses’ wrong-headed Was employer 1999) served increases? wrong wiser secure commitment lose imperatives launching ambitious plan cut essentially face qualification needed facilitate dialogue economists tatonnement process: looking optimal subsidies get running beat illicit Initially deliberately Surprisingly sacrosanct governmental circles deduction purely deal held acknowledged bonus supply: like creates substitution positive: opportunity leisure increases) negative: constraint shifts) (Maes flaws bonuses employees) Overall cost-effectiveness ‘non-budgetary’ got ground issues blue modernize waiting addressed 6.2. Jobless households: overlooks distribution crucially influences traditionally level) patterns mean: employed) 18-59 jobless almost figure 4%); disquieting exceptional: many translate nowhere gap wide ‘polarization index’ hypothetical assuming distributed randomly Corluy highest polarization approx 10%) high; evidently top ‘job ranking’ (together UK) unlike nonetheless mathematical truism nature pooling play explanation (using 20-59) illustrate 50%; ‘jobless households’ (assuming households) 76%) polarized Germany: 32 Comparing belong Länder rates; lowest ‘middle group’ situated extremes illustrated ranking database (LFS SILC) normalized 54+) discarded pronounced (depending indicator used) 20-59 lives ‘pooling’ theoretically ceteris paribus Higher (33 vs 8%) 7. record: generational 7.1. record at-risk-of-poverty floating threshold equal equivalent They Survey Living Conditions (SILC) interpreting material deprivation data33 survey; SILC informs ‘SILC T’ T-1 Member States crisis; upshot paradoxically Belgium: estimate inferred Unchanged composition stabilizers intrinsic conventional If anchor freezing row 7: Age (%) Incomes At-risk-of-poverty BE <18 Poverty euro's 10328 10791 11678 12005 104 113 116 inflation 105 At-risk-of anchored 0% Material (> items) Inflation consumption T-1/T-2 site confidence intervals cautious cross- Below tests statistical significance (Table Discarding differs tendency Conversely downwards 34 corroborates 35 readily explained; value tells homeownership parameter assessing taking situation) ‘material deprivation’ 36 non- population; Continental Europe typically strong: affects warrants subsection 37 [18-64] (not here) (nominal 22%) 17%) sufficiently indicative robust afford nine items: pay rent mortgage utility bills; keep warm; unexpected expenses; eat meat proteins regularly; holiday; television set; washing machine; car; telephone ‘difficulties ends meet’ Economy SILC-based website ‘at-risk-of-poverty indicator’ EU’s inclusion overestimate underestimate strain headcount postponing (Section notwithstanding at- risk-of-poverty derived (Storms Storms’s suggests overestimation (most importantly non-working house sector) underestimation (certainly teenagers parents) vis-à-vis (notably elderly) energy school costs… campaigned ‘at-risk-of- poverty’ coordination (Atkinson 2002); useful simple common measuring rod fortiori wellbeing striking variation (FPS Economy) headcounts Insofar perceptible 7.2. children: decomposition Investing appeared leitmotif Esping-Andersen’s found weigh heavily explicitly advocated reallocation childhood vocational ensure knowledge-based contradiction privileging phases (“good begin birth” book) proper struck hereafter referred ‘children’ indicated zooms contrasting confine elucidating sample 8: (**) (Brussels) (***) subject margins error Calculations EU-SILC (based standardized income) thresholds sure integrated correct relying normative calculating yields intra-regional Belgian-wide threshold) harbours rich assume) Wallonia’s Applying Flanders: ‘diminishes’ statistically (again thresholds) (from mediocre performer EU27 Norway Iceland disregarding Malta) wish 9: Decomposition C D E F G H J K Country Some Difference by… 20-54 Transfers (excl pens Share work-rich work-poor DK 38 NO 84 40 Flanders-BE 91 IS FI 52 SI 82 67 Flanders-FL SE 59 NL 47 CZ 81 CY 83 AT DE 55 FR 88 SK BELGIUM EE IE 72 48 HU 73 LU 70 Wallonia-WA 74 PL PT LT GR 76 63 79 ES LV IT 87 Wallonia-BE 75 BG RO Avergae 62 Correlation (ongewogen gemiddelde correlaties alleen lidstaten) values (BE included) threshold; computations Wim Lancker Aaron den Heede Work-rich/work-poor cut-off 45% work-intensity (EU2020 definition) Columns C-G obvious encountered 2008: (column C); D); intensity38 ‘relatively E) Households intensity labelled ‘work-poor’ correlate (Flanders-BE Wallonia-BE) (Flanders-FL; Wallonia-WA) ourselves Nordic perform Southern worse map Europe) cluster figures: (68 6%) 4%) (percentage points) terms: few 45%): corresponds incomes) 9%; cf column D) decompose H) ‘Work intensity’ working- members (excluding students) theoretical part- habitual interview definitions work-intensity) contributory ignoring term; exposition): I); J); K) decomposed Danish Italy entirely attributable Italian visualizes regions) mechanical regarding causality (For incorrect perspective; tentative Countries infer ‘trade-off’ Belgium) Ireland Hungary ‘average’ exception (at group; (IE HU) fighting 7.3. thought ‘efficiency spending’? Is range way? transfers) allow judgement ‘efficiency’ independent variable) variables) Visual inspection learns ‘borderline case’ transfer intend 39 Putting reconnecting functioning architecture grants Previous reflections difficult ‘room manoeuvre’ 1995 existent devolved papers Pestieau Lefebvre Perelman Space 8. quest justice strategy chosen aspired vice virtue debt taxation instead went Research deficit required corresponded precisely 1995) twofold bolstered motivation parties comply entering Eurozone paralyzing state’s assumed tackled saving systemic century strictly broadened double track state: goal setting reserves pedagogically visualized Fund; generalization democratic first-pillar Towards insufficiently square met head-on reassessed intrinsically overoptimistic Simplifying matters implicitly postulated precedence societal coming disputable: Many confronting climate claims naïve think settled straightjacket paying parametric Berghman Peeters rightly stress learn far? elements: negligible; neglected bonus-systems indicates ‘volume’-effect ‘prize’-effect (both is: broad-based adapts systematically expectancy served: hand? 9. Preparing Policies implementing incrementally scale mixed: market(s) catch More ‘the ageing’ expectations implementation Insufficient areas cost-efficiency During proved usefulness absorber (though consequences) complacent write ‘being glorifying reputation ago’ (Lefebvre 11) echoing warnings (2005) Concurrently incisive embarked underscore Realizing require adoption Acknowledgement Kim Lievens Ron Diris Jan Vanthuyne Bea Muriel Dejemeppe Dirk Moens Diana Graeve Michel Breda Vincent Greet Koen Gijs Dekker Patrick Lusyne Willem Adema Esther Deman Jef Maes Leen Steven Frederic Taveirne Tuba Bircan Marie-Jeanne Festjens Karen Evelyne Hens Erik Anthony Langenbergh Natascha Mechelen Cis Caes Stephen Windross punctual usual disclaimers apply Bibliography Adnet Bernadette ‘La sécurité au l’assainissement des finances publiques l’emploi’ in: (ed Het einde budgettair tekort Analyse recente evolutie Belgische openbare financiën (1990-2000) Geschiedenis Openbare Financiën België Deel VI Brussel: Boeck 149-168 Atkinson Barnes Eric Marlier Brian Nolan Indicators: Exclusion Oxford: Oxford Press Jos Hans Pension Protection Overview Challenges Text prepared workshop occasion honorary John Myles KU February http://soc kuleuven be/ceso/pensioenbeleid Bestaan er nog financiële vallen werkloosheid bijstand België? UA/Berichten Universiteit Antwerpen Ive P Inactiviteitsvallen personen handicap langdurige gezondheidsproblemen Studie opdracht Vlaamse minister Werk Onderwijs Vorming kader VIONA- onderzoeksprogramma Te raadplegen op www centrumvoorsociaalbeleid Giuliano post-industrial policies’ Klaus Armingeon Politics Post-Industrial Adapting post-war London/New York: Routledge 3-26 Bérénice Storms Gerlinde Verbist Bosch (1995) Wegen naar grotere doelmatigheid kinderbijslag belastingsaftrek kinderen laste Veerle Maesschalck bodem welvaartsstaat tot nu daarna ‘Hoe sociaal zeker zekerheid nog? Reflecties toekomst België’ Belgisch Tijdschrift Sociale Zekerheid 4:719:735 Tim ‘De kinderbijlslag werknemersstelsel: terugblik bij jaar kinderbijslag’ 1:7-34 ‘The paradox Lisbon era’ Journal (5): 432-449 http://dx doi org/10 1177/0958928711418856 Better Worse Richer Poorer Labour redistribution forthcoming Bart Bruno Der Linden Evaluation l’activation comportement recherche d’emploi Ghent: Academia Household Risk Analysis CSB-Working 12/06 Cutler David ‘Equality Efficiency Market Fundamentals: Dynamics International Medical-Care Reform’ Economic Literature 40: 891-906 Johan ‘Belgium: precursor muddling through?’ Jochen Daniel Clegg Regulating Unemployment: Adaptations Markets 100-120 ‘Measuring ‘Tracking caseloads: receipt Europe’ 297-317 W L actief arbeidsmarktbeleid Vlaanderen Europa?’ nr 3-4: 10-24 Huybrechts (1983) Matteüseffect ongelijke overheidsuitgaven Antwerpen: Kluwer (2001) architectuur opnieuw bekeken Acco Welvaartsbinding bijstandsuitkeringen/Liaison bien-être prestations sociales allocations d’assistance 4-11 Tonio Zinno Jean-Marc Laasman Marijke Duynslaeger Vanoverloop Ziekenhuisbarometer Aard omvang kosten patiënt algemeen ziekenhuis Socialistische Mutualiteiten Gosta Duncan Gallie Anton pensioen Een lange termijn schrikbeeld vergrijzing’ Marc Despontin Jegers verzekerd? Referaten 22ste Vlaams Wetenschappelijk Economisch Congres Brussels: VUBPRESS 271-331 (1997) pensioenhervorming nieuwe generatie nieuw Gerard Maarten Daphné Valsamis der Beken Evaluatie dienstencheques buurtdiensten -banen IDEA Consult Sophie Sherry System Review’ Systems Transition 12(5): 1-266 Meer werknemers minder werk recepten als antwoord DynaM 2012/2 August ‘Hoogte adequaatheid minima periode 2000-2011’ Vranken Willy Lahaye Annelinde Gerts Catherine Coppée Armoede Jaarboek Leuven/The Hague: 215-238 Hall R (2007) rise Quarterly Economics 112: 39-72 Changing ‘Continental Crossroads: Choice Minimum Netherlands’ Palier Long Goodbye Bismarck? Reform Amsterdam: Amsterdam 129-155 ‘Pension paths: Nick Heuvel Peter Hallen Christine Erhel Pierre Courtioux arbeidsmarkt Special Issue Ageing employability Arbeidsmarkt 141-154 Verslag Actief ouder FOD WASO Houkes Aenneli Mieke Rijken Makai Eigen betalingen chronisch zieken gehandicapten internationaal onderzoek SEO Onderzoek & Nivel Adjustment Political Transformation Small Mathieu Sergio ll’Etat-providence européen Quel enseignement pour la Belgique ?’ : Regards Economiques December 93:&-13 Marjan reforming old- Discussion 2008-40 Université Catholique Louvain ‘welfare work’ Schubert Simon Hegelich Ursula Bazant Handbook London: 49-64 X Performantie huisartsgeneeskunde check-up Services (HSR) Rijksinstituut Ziekte- Invaliditeitsverzekering (RIZIV) Annemie Are crowding old? 12/08 Mimilidis Hélène Stefaan Les determinants l’accès soins santé Une étude besoins non-satisfaits raisons financièressur l’enquête belge ISSP/WIV June Nathalie Joakim Palme Investment State? Ideas longevity’ 114: 871-904 Boie Luc Sels doelstelling binnen handbereik? Potentiële tewerkstellingseffecten hervorming uittredestelsels’ 22: 93-101 Hendrik Financiële prikkels werkhervatting werklozen leefloontrekkers België: heden verleden Documentatienota 2009-1486 Centrale Bedrijfsleven werkloosheidsvallen 2011-0189 Paul Rijksdienst Kinderbijslag Werknemers maandelijkse 2010’ Focus 2011-2 Joeri Guillaume Ann Lecluyse Hervé Avalosse Cornelis Stephan Devriese Carine Voorde effecten maximumfactuur consumptie toegankelijkheid gezondheidszorg 80A KCE- Federaal Gezondheidszorg ASISIP Annual Pensions Long-term http://socialprotection eu/files_db/208 /asisp_ANR09_Belgium eu/files_db/884/ asisp_ANR10_Belgium Jaarverslag Brussel actieve Europees perspectief Den Uyl lecture Also Stichting Uyl-lezing spoor Uyl- lezingen 1988-2008 Strategische keuzes beleid ‘beleid onderzoek’ ‘Geluk politiek: pleidooi helder denken’ Studium Generale 2011-2012 Gent: ‘Disappointing trends: blame?’ 21: 450-471 ongelijkheden gezondheid Vlayen Joan Katrien Vanthomme Cécile Camerlin Julien Piérart Denise Walckiers Laurence Kohn Imgard Vinck Alain Denis Pascal Hermann Leonard eerste stap meten performantie gezondheidszorgsysteem KCE-reports 128A KCE hervormingen verzorgingsstaat: kroniek’ 3de trimester 403-456 appendix starting A1 ‘active’ situation numerator STASIM Bogaerts) Part-time maintenance 1999-2000 benefit) 18% 29% 146 109 117 102 133 27% 142 58 121 (bestaansminimum 136 96 119 -13% 128 17% 118 Definitions: pov = wp (‘work- households’) wr (‘work-rich wo (‘other pwp pwr pwo Belgium; are: 5(wrA wrB 5(wpA wpB 5(woA woB 5( pwpA pwpB pwrA pwrB pwoA pwoB old) povB povA ( (wrB wrA )( pwp) Whereby to: pwp)(woB woA accounting technique indicating A3 Cash Benefits relationship (except post-transfer include collected cutoff equivalised thick estimated regression employing variable thin give bounds vertical bars graphs 1-A3 Reduction refers population) lifted (work-poor) 45 restricting Computations A4

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138a-Redevoering-redenaarsconcert_Geluk_jan2011

1 Geluk als doelstelling geluk Een pleidooi voor vitaliteit * Frank Vandenbroucke Redenaarsconcert “De Triomf van de Menselijkheid” Brugge 8 januari/ Gent 12 Antwerpen 15 januari 2011 En se concentrant sur “favellar in musica” l’expression musicale du “je” Monteverdi place l’individu au centre nouveau monde musical: il donne le moyen en tant que compositeur d’exprimer sa vision personnelle permet chanteur soliste son émotion et condition humaine invite l’auditeur à projeter dans l’oeuvre prendre part par biais intelligence sensibilité propre (…) un mot c’est l’aventure l’interprétation qui commence: nous interrogeons ce dit travers elle la ses interprètes y projetons enfin nos propres questions inquiétudes valeurs Bernard Foccroulle La musique naissance moderne1 Gioia – “Had ik zoveel harten hemel sterren heeft gebladerte heuvels dragen groene mei allemaal zouden ze vol zijn overstromen het dat me vervult ” Kan je innig mooier laten klinken dan Orpheus Rosa del Ciel? Heel terecht zingen herders nimfen op einde eerste bedrijf: “Vandaag is zó gelukkig er niets méér waar hij nog naar zou verlangen Als zo cruciaal alles omvattend één ander onderwerp ons moet bezighouden dan… geluk? Zou politiek niet moeten hebben: veel mogelijk mensen? We hebben natuurlijk over uitbundige maar – om eenvoudig te houden tevredenheid leven we leiden Dat daarvoor zorgen was stelling Jeremy Bentham filosoof uit 18de eeuwse Verlichting Toen economie begon studeren waren mijn cursussen doordrongen utilitarisme Of beter een nogal magere erfenis daarvan Het ene mens bleek ondanks enthousiasme immers moeilijk vergelijken met andere rekenkunde waarbij mensen bij elkaar optelt of verdeling weegschaal legt onmogelijk erkenden utilitaristen na enige wat kon veronderstellen zich hun keuzes door eigen ondersteunde uitsluitend naïeve theorie efficiëntie markten vrije keuze garantie maximaal individueel verhinderde uitspraken sociale rechtvaardigheid Ik eigenlijk wàt blij verlost werd Met dank aan John Rawls: die formuleerde robuuste maatstaven zoiets nevelig “geluk” Rawls “theorie rechtvaardigheid” opgebouwd vanuit fundamentele kritiek Je middelen toelaten levensplan goed realiseren inkomen vermogen bijvoorbeeld eerlijk verdelen Over kan iets zinnig vertellen Bovendien zélf verantwoordelijk doen waarover beschikken Ze ook recht erg verschillende opvattingen gaan a priori alle “een leven” gelijk stellen stelt dus scherp zgn “primaire goederen” Amartya Sen meer fijnmazig Toon Vandevelde Mark Elchardus Isabelle Devos Bart Martens Anton Delbarre Agsteribbe Gerd Bours Philippe De Coene wie ter voorbereiding besproken heb Francis Maes bijkomende opmerkingen Kim Lievens praktische hulp Zij zullen ongetwijfeld zeer verbaasd gekomen verantwoordelijkheid ligt geheel mij 2 daardoor sterker alternatief ontwikkeld Hij beklemtoont reële mogelijkheden deze dingen toestand waarvan redenen waardevol vinden Maar kijk terug Richard Layard gerespecteerd econoom inspirator activering werkzoekenden jaren ’90 pleit sinds enkele onomwonden terugkeer beste beleid datgene grootste oplevert Want zegt samen vele “gelukswetenschappers” wél objectief vaststellen zelfs blijkt dan? Westen al tientallen gestaag rijker worden geen spat gelukkiger! suggereert volgende verklaring: “Sinds Tweede Wereldoorlog hoger nationaal inderdaad tot toename geleid rijke landen tenietgedaan leed gevolg minder harmonieuze verhoudingen Let wel staat ver af beschouwt individualistische non-filosofie onstuitbare individualisme bracht aldus “niet omdat ieder individu gretig deed zichzelf krijgen echt willen concept algemeen belang nodig waaraan onze bijdrage leveren ”2 “Het ideaal Verlichting” “definieert iedereen wordt verlangd evenveel anderen geven onszelf medemenselijkheid vanzelf bevordert isolement verbreekt ”3 weet 1990 stichter-directeur befaamde Centre for Economic Performance (LSE) boek Happiness verrassende lectuur hoofdstuk “Hoe maken ratrace?” eindigt beschouwing: “Zekerheid èn innerlijke rust goederen groeien afnemen naarmate Toch onder bovenlaag Europa Verenigde Staten gemeengoed geworden verandering vernieuwing hoogste doel beschouwen Niets innovatief Bureaucraten slaan opgewekt saneren overheidsdiensten bewust feit iedere reorganisatie persoonlijk vertrouwen gevoel zekerheid grote schaal schaadt kritische vaststelling leidt hem sleutelvraag: “Wat groter krijgen?”4 Vergis u echter economische neemt welfare-to-work waarmee Europese regeringen aanzette goede midden kiezen tussen harde aanpak ogen “lankmoedige Frans-Duitse manier” 5 roep alleen flexibiliteit arbeidsmarkt vindt verstandig precies onzekerheid creëert “In plaats daarvan” schrijft “zouden zowel betrekking alsook flexibele lonen [waarmee doelt decentralisering loonoverleg inruilen loonstijging werkzekerheid] nastreven ”6 Layard’s conclusie beenhard: discrepantie rijkdom zoals meten Bruto Nationaal Product prioritair thema vormen 7 denk juist heel concreet maken: bijsturingen onderwijsbeleid werkgelegenheidsbeleid gezinsbeleid gezondheidsbeleid geestelijke gezondheidszorg … toch geloof altijd regel heldere opvatting geeft Politiek instaan rechtvaardige samenleving herleiden “zoveel geluk” veronderstelt rechten vrijheden; tegenslag waarvoor niét solidariteit herverdeling daarmee samenhangt; herverdeeld worden; grenzen lidmaatschap dus… dissidente stem Van Parijs laat prachtige verzamelboek Leo Bormans Geluk: “Allemaal maatschappij gelukkige maatschappij” 3 Waarom vind geluid? Wel meetbaar kunnen optellen aftrekken vergelijken… schort idee dé geslaagd Neem vrouw haar mensenrechten ontzegt vrouwen: zeggen is? vreemd vrouwen spreken vervolgens Aristoteles voeren want vreselijk dwaze gezegd wijze verteld Werkelijk betekenis ontwikkeling menselijke activiteit doel-stelling Deze liberalisme opvat vrijheid-blijheid-zonder-meer zéér anti-liberaal hebt plichten tegenover plicht jezelf (maar toegegeven zo’n armzalige doe aantal liberalen onrecht aan; zij verwijzen Stuart Mill) daar perfectionist in: moest beantwoorden standaarden uitmuntendheid vertalen perfectionistisch filosofe Martha Nussbaum doet garanderen voldoende mate beschikt ontwikkelen overeenstemming sterke waardigheid Hoe verder gebruiken welke richting ontplooien welk spoor opbouwen geldt hanteert perfectionistische 9 eens gaat geluksgevoel ben politicus milde versie ten persoonlijke titel strengere sturen gelukswetenschappers af? Neen Verstandige filosofen concrete beschouwingen vaak Op vraag antwoordt Christopher Peterson twee woorden samenvatten: “andere mensen” “Affiliatie” (verbondenheid anderen) meest ontwikkelingsmogelijkheden “Geluk vloeit voort verbondenheid engagement acties bevestigen Zingeving andersom” Gary T Reker Ook sluit perfect raad materiële nooit “alle neo-Aristotelianen delen” 10 Beeld volgt louter gedachtenexperiment samenlevingen Justland gelukzalige Happyland spelregels rechtvaardiger vast gemiddeld gelukkiger minst gelukkigen Zouden besluiten misschien rechtvaardigheid? dun weinig oog voorwaarden geluk; enge herverdelen draait rond geld bijvoorbeeld? Kortom frisse vertaling oude levert nuttige spiegel ideeën blijft precieze zien krijgt? lang bezig houdt land economen Erik Schokkaert 11 zegde loopt mank onderscheid “geluksgevoel” “tevredenheid “rechtvaardigheid” praktijk lijken relevante definities gelijkenissen vertonen Mensen wijzen “intrinsiek egalitaire karakter ware gelukspolitiek eenvoudiger ongelukkigen Omdat armoede funest geluksbeleid egalitair” 4 “maar vertoont verwantschap welvaartsstaten voorbije vijftig jaar Noordwest-Europa levenslicht zagen vond Scandinavische (en name manier waarop onderzoekers welzijn burgers beoordelen) toepassing Aristoteliaanse benadering “Aristoteliaanse sociaaldemocratie” noemt risico’s kinderen verliezen Grieken zeker sterk breekbaarheid 13 kwetsbaarheid Die kwaadheid slechtheid vermijdbaar voorwerp menselijk falen toeval wijten Griekse tragedies noemen “het natuur” sterven jonge leeftijd Daarmee geconfronteerd toen geliefde Euridyce gebeten slang luisteren verdriet Lamento moe Tony Judt prachtig nagelaten Ill fares the vertaler even mooie Nederlandse titel: moe” 14 onbehagen beschrijft blinde markt ging overheersen teloorgang stelde deel betoog Is algemeenheid juist? Ja voorwaarde kijkt rijkste gemiddelde bestaan West-Europa toegenomen gemeten tweede wereldoorlog meeste West-Europese ’70 schril contrast BNP per hoofd bevolking mogen gebrekkige indicator Echter wanneer armere duidelijk positief verband “gemiddeld enerzijds “BNP bevolking” eerder wereldwijd bekeken stijgende gunstige effect afneemt niveau bereikt krom (Zéér verbazend niet: maakt ) U zal nu weten waarom groei irrelevant vanaf bepaald niveau… hoed daarover boude uitspraak Er verklaringen Rijke arme twijfel iederéén stijgt Vanaf lijkt gebaseerd vooral kwestie vergelijking “vergelijking anderen” competitieve helaas aangemoedigd Om vergelijken…16 tenminste stap voorbij methodologische kritieken e daarop formuleren) levensomstandigheden instellingen bestuur bestuurde tolerante groot sociaal kapitaal sommige wetenschappers “egalitaire” specifieke geluksfactor identificeren: inkomensgelijkheid onderstreep evidentie? punten geruststellend Contra critici moderniteit Ton Lemaire betreft reputatie beeld ontleen Jan Delhey In tegenstelling doemdenkers moderne westerse snelste weg ongeluk depressie wetenschap toont praatjes Oef! Zijn happy end autostrade vooruitgang?17 kom punt BNP-groei wij gedachten ongelooflijke expansie gaande China Indië Brazilië… wijzen? omarmen! bedreigen zekerheden volledig subjectief zijn: verlies zogezegde “suprematie”; deels druk competitief blijven wereld economisch snel verandert dwingt Hoger verwees flexibiliteit: Economisch argumenten leuk peptalk managementseminars objectieve reden gepercipieerde bedreiging: historische klimaatopwarming uitstoot CO2 afzienbare toekomst geleverd nieuwe industrielanden helemaal bedreiging aller geluk: opwarming aarde Ons aan-rijkdom-gebonden-geluk kwetsbaar onzeker natuur “halt!” roepen ongelijk twijfels wezenlijk verbonden industrialisering steken weer kop Twijfels weldaden Prometheus kent verhaal halfgod stal vuur goden gaf leidde technische beschaving Dit weldaad mensheid uiting overmoed gestraft: 30 000 geketend rots elke dag vreet adelaar lever! vooruitgangsgeloof incarneert overmoedig luidt halve eeuw kracht won val leidmotief inspireren Herbert Marcuse Franse classicus Pierre Hadot Eros and Civilization symbool “zware inspanning productiviteit vooruitgang dankzij onderdrukking” polen ideeëngeschiedenis natuurbeeld voluntaristische technologische houding versus contemplatieve poëtische prometheïsche bevindt oppositie men tracht domineren nutte vijandige vreemde weerstand biedt wil overwinnen orphische daarentegen ervaart verwant esthetisch lyrisch muzisch utilitair instrumenteel aandrang veroveren getemperd besef maat angst hybris evenwicht verloren gegaan hersteld 18 cultuurheld postindustriële relativiteit inziet anders verhoudt natuur? industriële revolutie? straks eerst valt kanttekening eenvoudige tijdens decennia gepaard stijgend rekening stijging levensverwachting besluit komen doorsnee mensenleven gevuld Westerse gestegen stijgen zeg uitdrukkelijk “kan” baseer hier simplistische Gelukswetenschapper Ruut Veenhoven brengt beeld: langer discussiëren Aristotelianen wellicht gruwen (is x% duurt?) Vanuit “capability-“standpunt hogere mag kwalificeren… Laat 6 vrij evidente gezonde levensjaren verwachten 65ste? Terwijl algemene geboorte spectaculair steeg 1870 geval 65 bleef redelijk stabiel 65-jarige 1850 ca leven; 1950 verwachting mannen vrouwen; geprojecteerde verdubbeling 2025 1975 19 Voor begrip: verhoogt “levensgeluk” mechanisch boeiende studies mortaliteit morbiditeit Vlaanderen wijst erop levensstandaard geschreven impuls medisch korps arbeidersbeweging daarin belangrijke rol speelden Opnieuw argument impact enigszins relativeert 20 Wat betekent 65-jarige? materialistisch pensioenkapitaal pensioenrecht bedoel: totale som pensioenen genieten uitkijken zowat 20% liggen 2000 50% 21 is! Vooraleer verontwaardigd buiten jaagt pensioen 50-jarigen béter 75-jarigen ons; statistisch pensioenuitkering “Genieten”? Ervaren vooruitzicht genieten? velen boven associëren met: vereenzaming fragiliteit überhaupt genereus uitbetalen… Eerder bron grotere toelaat derde allerlei plannen projecten omgeving waarin ouder hoe lokale omgeving) omgaat veroudering Ongerustheid onrechte maatschappelijke contract groeiende herziening toe Tot zover hand opnieuw paradoxaal voorleggen keer uitgekomen ontwikkelingen verweven toenemende onzekere “we” spreek mijzelf politieke verantwoordelijken bestuurders Bij bestuurden vergrijzing betaalbaarheid onbehagen: diversiteit migratie globalisering Europa… Vele lezingen dagen neem domineert mee redenering opbouw Individueel risico aanhoudende kwaal niet-samenleving cocktail klaarblijkelijke luide proclameren noodzakelijk afdoende antwoord Sterker naïef opgevatte tegenovergesteld zet uiteen: houdingen oordeel hen enquêtes gesteld is; gang zaken interpretaties Zeker ontevreden neiging negatief beoordelen omgekeerd tendens onderzoek zwak tevreden verdomd slecht groep bijna behoren lopen onderstreept verschil privésfeer publieke sfeer Hannah Arendt 22 linkerzijde gecharmeerd “republikeinse geest” leeft worstelen interpretatiekaders gewicht gewonnen traditionele reactie beklemtonen graag problemen Dorpsstraat Wetstraat (ooit verkiezingscampagne symbolisch gestart Anderlecht) blijf denken belangrijk beleidsmaatregelen stelselmatig vertaalt betekenen Dorpsstraat; gezegde herhalen soelaas indruk intussen conflicten kiezer relevant oplossen Nog perspectief ervaren behaagziek principeloos achterna hollen vermeende individuele soort ontstaan bekommernis “negatieve boodschappen” vermijden kregen advies partijen wervend verhaal” moesten zoeken? “geen aankondigen oplossingen” “geruststellen” negatieve boodschap géén forum noodzakelijke oplossing uitgelegd krijgt ernst probleem maakt… nergens versies finale L’Orfeo bewaard gebleven libretto verspreid voorstelling 1607 mythe Vergilius Ovidius totaal ontredderd nadat Eurydice maal verloor verwerpt verbitterd zweert relatie knopen Bacchanten brassende vrouwelijke volgelingen Dionysus Orpheus’ belofte gehoord beslissen straffen vrouwenhaat stukken hakken Hebrus werpen partituur 1609 gedrukt greep gered neerdalen vader Apollo opstijgt ingreep blijkbaar stand Men intentie uitzingen brokken verscheuren oorspronkelijke “ware” veranderde voorstellingen opdrachtgever Hertog Gonzaga opvoering beval “voor dames stad” reeds plande aanleiding bezoek Carlo Emanuele Savoie toekomstige schoonvader Gonzaga’s zoon Francesco slot toegewijde echtgenoot gereten ultieme offer betreurde geschikt vermaak huwelijksbesprekingen 23 verklaring verwijst aanpassingen gebeuren omwille beperkte speelruimte opvoeringen beklemtoond Fred der Kooij 24luidt librettist werden gevaarlijke ketterij hadden schuldig gemaakt ongewild ineffectiviteit genade beschreven gedachte… modeniteit muziek ingeluid moment (er brandstapels… aanbood moést werken herwerkte hoogsteigen persoon afdalen echte christelijke barmhartigheid absolutie hemelvaart paste breder streven antieke leer gedachtegoed verzoenen interpretatie benadrukt bijzonder logisch aansluit filosofie Neoplatonisme trek Renaissance hofkunst waartoe behoort Hoewel inluidde gedachte ontknoping volgens onmoderne tijdsgeest lotsbestemming vastligt orde onveranderlijk Verder twijfelde doemscenario Monteverdi’s vandaag optimistische inzicht maakbare 25 Nu Moresca opera horen wilde Zo’n strijddans sloegen doden terwijl uitvoerden dadelijk duet Speranza Vitaliteit Hemelvaart bloedbad Moresca? getwijfeld achterom gekeken had! concert “Triomf triomf vieren? indrukwekkend succes falen… zelf moeilijke worstel beweging interpretatiekader aanbieden staan naartoe sociaaldemocratische sta zonder toekomstperspectief Sociaaldemocratie 26 toekomst? Kunnen mobiliseren oplossingen ondubbelzinnig worden? verschiet afwenden onheil? Onderstrepen kwetsbaarheid? verval kansen? eerlijke werkelijkheid durft vragen? verwachtingen hebben? Welke ondersteunen? tegenspreken? creëren? angstwekkende afkomen spoedig drastisch teruggedrongen klimaatrisico’s wachten kleinkinderen ernstig zéggen verminderen kopen prijs betalen 27 Beschouw verzekeringspremie beginnen jammeren energieprijzen zegen (wat aanvaarden elders) uitleggen behoeft voelbaar CO2-intensieve producten publiek wegen rekeningrijden invoeren tegelijkertijd alsof bescheiden Armoede mààkt ongelukkig opkomen inkomens gezinnen koopkracht beschermt gevolgen dergelijke jaarlijkse pensioenbedrag peil maatregelen steeds productiviteitsdruk stress diegenen Elders betoogd pensioenvraagstuk sparen financiële bijdragen Langer betekent: verzekeren pensioenhervorming rekent inzet erbij efficiënt rechtvaardig hervormd pensioenstelsel later zetten significant geef voorbeelden geruststellen daadwerkelijk collectief Wie vragen vicieuze cirkel breken strijdig doekjes winden: duurdere vliegtuigreizen werken: geluksbrengers gezicht “harde” boodschappen sporen aandacht scherper richten immateriële tekorten tijden ruimte hele ondersteuning kwaliteit onderwijs uitbouw zorg organisatie werk Herinner Elchardus: polis collectieve bedreigingen bedwingen is: doelloosheid ingevuld verdraagt leegte bespiegelingen eindigen mix: afstand nemen eenzijdig kortzichtig materialisme vervelende waarheden “ondernemend” Ondernemerschap onthechting: samen? soberheid verwijzing zwanger intellectuele Max Weber geïllustreerd ondernemerschap niet-materialistische ethiek Pleidooien zekere bedachtzaamheid t v verrijking eindeloze vermenigvuldiging Tijd belangrijker cadeaus voorbeeld onverstandig rebel28 ketenen Vindingrijkheid technologie instrumentele rationaliteit hard betere ontroering betovering Overigens “riskant” beetje rebels leefde harmonie weigerde neer leggen elementaire natuurwet: sterfelijkheid schuilt enen verscheidenheid vitale vermoedelijk kleine draai geven: gaven zwakheden ga woordje “end” Engels betekenissen: vermoeide nombreux commentateurs ont interprété l’Orfeo comme triomphe d’autres voient contraire preuve impuissance Quelle était exactement position ? A-t-il voulu exprimer une profession foi l’Homme ou représenter folie arrogance Propose-t-il apologie liberté individuelle montre-t-il l’homme victime des caprices dieux L’oeuvre est-elle porteuse d’une « païenne » reste-t-elle fondamentalement chrétienne Striggio semblent s’abstenir conclure ils laissent les ouvertes invitant apporter réponses garder sens mouvement moderne29 B R Legros Todorov l’art Grasset 2005 p 85 94 gelukkig? Atlas Amsterdam/Antwerpen 168 177 179 concentreer hierbij Layard; prominent wetenschappelijk gespecialiseerd tijdschrift Journal Studies Lage Landen bv TPEdigitaal themanummer paper “Meten Geluk” (TPEdigitaal 2008 jaargang 2(3) pp 10-35) liet 100 woord The World Book Lannoo Tielt 2010 interessant kort kritisch overzicht “gelukswetenschap” “Een geluk?” Raymaekers (ed Visie Universitaire Pers Leuven 2009 101-123 maatstaf (duurzaam) prominente rapport Commissie Stiglitz (Report by Commission on Measurement Social Progress) besteld President Sarkozy 305 alinea geïnspireerd C “Mill between Aristotle & Bentham” Daedalus Spring 2004 60-68 huidige benadering) “Aristotle Politics Human Capabilities: A Response to Antony Arneson Charlesworth Mulgan” Ethics 111 October 102-140 geciteerde 16 136-137 zie Capabilities” 105-106 grondlegger “capability”-approach inspiratie gekoppeld bespreekt beoordelingscriterium positie bevinden Idea Justice Allen Lane 269-290 bestempelt “happiness” “a very important human functioning among others additition its own importance happiness can also be seen have some evidential interest pertinence thus indicative merit being typically related our successes failures life This so though not only thing seek or reason bemerkingen gelukswetenschappers) samengevat hierop neer: “The central issue significance but alleged insignificance everything else which many advocates perspective seem insist streng handhaven rechtvaardigheidsprincipes leidraad anderzijds geluksmetingen Bovenop m i nationale statistieken bestaan” (als wet getallen speelt) aanduiding bevorderen” vrijheden Zie Daarom schrijf “spiegel” vormt zin vaststellingen ex post “gemiddelde tevredenheid” ante put debat recent aantonen (Marc Fleurbaey Koen Decancq What Good Oktober 2010) langdurig onderdrukt benadeeld gevoelen (plezier pijn vreugde haat) cognitief d w z actieve bewuste oefening uitspreken Vervolgens moeilijkheid “tevredenheid” voorkeuren conceptueel methodologisch tekort schieten recente literatuur b artikel gewijd positieve psychologie (Nussbaum “Who warrior? Philosophy poses psychology” Legal 37 June 81-113) revival bekritiseert 276 “Aristotelian Democracy” Bruce Douglass Gerald Mara Henry S Richardson Liberalism New York Routledge 203-252 “fascinating convergence” bepaalde kijken bevorderen Amsterdam Ambo 2006 (een 1986) Verhandeling ontevredenheid Uitgeverij Contact nadruk capita “boven $ (Layard 44) nuanceert “Life getting better Societal evolution fit with nature” Indicators Research 97 105-120; cf nuancering belangrijkste band lineair zijn? Treedt “gewenning” op? binnen rijkere ontstaat basis vergelijking? laatste helpt paradox verklaren verloop tijd (cf gelukkiger? 51 ondersteunt tegen econometrisch G Mayraz Nickel Does Relative Income Matter? Are Critics Right?” CEP Discussion Paper No 918 March 2009) Paul Beer ontwikkelt model statusgoederen (bij inkomen) verklarende factor “Economische ongelijkheid 54-80 inhakend Robert “vergelijking” verklaart inkomensniveau beantwoord groei-dynamiek (de counterfactual stagnerende onderzocht) 17 voorgaande zinnen blz 224-226 tekst Eén bekendste revolutie ontketende geheugen menig economiestudent gegrift (David Landes Unbound Technological change industrial development Western Europe from 1750 present Cambridge University Press 1969 citaten keerzijden 318-320 Londen 1955 Le voile d’Isis; essai l’histoire l’idée Nature Paris Gallimard 2004; vertaald Veil Isis: An Essay History MA Harvard prometheïstische orfische “goed” “slecht” worden: themselves both these attitudes are completely legitimate if discern serious possible deviations within each them However opposed they may moreover do mutually exclude other (The isis 317) zoekt nuance complementariteit (zie interview Groene Amsterdammer 134 nr (28 juli Orpheus) ervaar vorm cultuur- vooruitgangspessimisme overtuigen productief ecologische uitdagingen Afgeronde cijfers gegevens voorspellingen Planbureau bezorgd Allemaal Beestjes Mortaliteit Morbiditeit 18de-20ste Academia 2006; evolutie België voorgebracht Chaire Quetelet 21-23 breed verspreide had Meer bedraagt demografische 57 2% 49 7% 6% % disconteren Hollandse burger Romein Privé-sfeer stemgedrag ROB-lezing Te website Raad Openbaar Bestuur www rob-rfv nl passage inleiding Gerardus Swerts Favola Musica di Claudio gemoderniseerde 2007 24 “L’Orfeo onmacht muziek” gepubliceerd brochure Munt productie 1998 plaatst begin uitdrukking periode techniek personage “spreken” monodie (combinatie solo zangstem instrumentale begeleiding) principe zogenaamde genere rappresentativo theatrale gevoelens rechtstreeks ontdekking voorbereid humanisten geperfectioneerd legde passies emoties 17e 18e kenmerken voegt beschouwing (persoonlijke communicatie): “Toch premodern invloed traditie pastorale drama allegorische intermedio achtergrond zintuiglijke kennis bovenzintuiglijke realiteit landschap functioneert zinnelijke representatie bovenwereldlijke essentie verbond Christendom klassiek Platonisme opstijgen geest goddelijke redding uiteindelijke zozeer deus machina verworven vergankelijk aardse vergankelijke overstijgen totaliteit proces doormaakt zelfoverwinning weliswaar gerepresenteerd leert liefde liefde; verwerven (“hij aanschouwt schoonheid voortaan sterren”) Neoplatoonse visie ancien-régime macht legitimiteit wereldlijke goddelijk machthebber onderdanen vaste relaties geordende kosmos afschaduwing kosmische uitgedrukt slotballet zo’n hoofse past premoderne plaatje: komt deeltje machthebbers gepresenteerd familie) begrijpen stuk raderwerk onmodern Orfeo veraf optiek schitterende uitwerking gewezen bevestiging waarde subject kunstwerk beide werelden spanning (Francis Maes) Bokina (in Opera From Henze Yale 2005) gewenste karaktervorming prins heerser gelouterde kristalliseert neo-platonische aspiraties barokke korte trein sociaaldemocratie (Knack maart frankvandenbroucke be) leg vooruitgangsperspectief vier bepalende vooruitgangsgedachte Kalma Links rechts Wiardi Beckmanstichting/Mets Schilt indrukwekkende synthese inzichten bepalen Nieuw zicht Sociaaldemocratisch kompas 21ste Antwerpen-Apeldoorn Garant “risicoreductie” centrale Stern-rapport latere Nicholas Stern Blueprint safer planet How manage climate create new era progress prosperity Bodley Head London 28 kenner mythologie Jean-Pierre Vernant werpt licht Prometheus: “Prometheus opstandig aard ongezeglijk ongehoorzaam klaar” (Jean-Pierre Spectrum 67 Ex-communist verzetsstrijder omschrijft tv-interview sympathieke “contestatair”; opvoert “onderdrukking” zijn! 29 “La moderne”