S TAT I T ICAL BOOK Monitoring social inclusion in Europe EDITED BY ANTHONY B ATKINSON ANNE-CATHERINE GUIO AND ERIC MARLIER 2017 edition More information on the European Union is available Internet (http://europa eu) Luxembourg: Publications Office of PDF: ISBN 978-92-79-43623-9 doi: 10 2785/60152 Cat No: KS-05-14-075-EN-N Print: 978-92-79-43624-6 2785/6030 KS-05-14-075-EN-C Theme: Population and conditions Collection: Statistical books c Reproduction content other than photo authorised provided source acknowledged For more please consult: http://ec europa eu/eurostat/about/policies/copyright Copyright for photographs: cShutterstock reproduction or use these photos permission must be sought directly from copyright holder The views set out this publication are those author(s) do not necessarily reflect official opinion Neither institutions bodies nor any person acting their behalf may held responsible which made contained therein Direct a service to help you find answers your questions about Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 11 (*) given free as most calls (though some operators phone boxes hotels charge you) Foreword 3 Social at heart Europe’s commitment build stronger economic recovery growth we slowly starting witness across needs reach everybody including disadvantaged our citizens But far reaching goal Poverty reduction one key targets 2020 Strategy poverty exclusion continued grow since target was first 2010 affecting almost 25% has only stabilised recently Our lift least 20 million people by remains difficult achieve current levels that witnessing today acceptable 21st century Everybody together — Commission all 28 Member States need put shoulders wheel It essential EU continues shed light living monitoring progress each State towards We have statistical instrument gather data: Statistics Income Living Conditions (known EU-SILC) with present book concerned two aims: firstly provide evidence state deprivation seen mid-decade following recession contribution being employment protection policies achieving objectives; secondly examine strengths weaknesses existing EU-SILC statistics make recommendations further development ‘Monitoring Europe’ outcome an EU-funded Network statisticians scientists who form partnership wide experience production analysis data also last works Sir Tony Atkinson leaves us testament his ground-breaking life-long work volume intended policy-makers ensuring go hand Having good translate priority into targeted concrete action get better lives Commissioner Marianne Thyssen Employment affairs skills labour mobility Responsible Eurostat Remembering 5 passed away 1 January My heavy Tony’s demise represents incalculable loss fight justice throughout world 50 years forefront research income wealth distribution general inequality particular In analysing issues he combined unique theoretical expertise practical deep empirical order propose evidence-based policy ideas strategies best address them He very design promotion inclusive forward-thinking innovative intellectual His major contributions many cover different areas These include improvement quality optimal taxation microsimulation welfare economics Another fundamental improving – methodological framework still provides basis developing indicators used (EU) monitor common objectives relating front integral part Issued too late unfortunately see published version final second Analysis (Net-SILC2) Up until couple weeks before death even though health had deteriorated considerably were touch discuss edits sending it print role Net-SILC2 (as well its predecessor Net-SILC1(*)) crucial Not co-editor detailed feedback papers produced colleagues 4 project advised programme international conferences organised brilliant mind great humility generosity extraordinary All met him will remember how interested always real exchanges interactions truly caring sharing carefully listening others This examples much collaborative spent life tools measure understand tackle important now ensure deepened continuing challenge giant every possible way upon whose academic so myself several contributors stood Like around deeply miss dedicated Eric Marlier (Luxembourg Institute Socio‑Economic Research (LISER)) Project Director A E (eds) (2010) Luxembourg Acknowledgements editors EU‑SILC (Net‑SILC2) ambitious 20-partner bringing both producers (directly involved collection data) users established response call applications (Eurostat) 2011 would like thank funding Net‑SILC2 but active efficient support output successor (Net‑SILC) entitled scientific could included comprehensive technical material rich workshops (see below) web page website Most series methodologies working wish members they belong (for list Appendix 1) initial findings presented Comparative (in Vienna (6-7 December 2012) Lisbon (16-17 October 2014)) jointly Austria kindly hosting conference Portugal Bank Special thanks Rolf Aaberge Nuno Alves Carlos Farinha Rodrigues Sigita Grundiza Bjorn Hallerod Orsolya Lelkes Pedro Mira Cathal O’Donoghue Wiemer Salverda Ursula Till‑Tentschert discussing thoroughly addition deepen fields briefly book: ‘Standard error estimation related sampling issues’ 29-30 March ‘The Use Registers Context EU‑SILC’ (Vienna training workshop view building analytical longitudinal/ panel component 9-12 July Isabelle Bouvy Begona Levices invaluable secretarial bibliographical should stressed does represent persons thanked above authors written strictly personal capacity representatives Government body Thus been express own take full responsibility judgments past future (Nuffield College London School Economics United Kingdom) A‑C Guio Contents List tables figures charts 21 About context 31 33 (Anthony Anne‑Catherine Marlier) Aim 2 Outline contents 34 Future developments 40 Linking micro- macro- 41 Combining survey register 42 Confronting expenditure Putting perspective income‑based concepts jobs (quasi-)joblessness 43 Improving measurement understanding dynamics 44 goals global 2030 sustainable Extreme 45 2030? 46 new indicator? 47 An integrated approach 48 References Investing statistics: 51 (Emilio Di Meglio Didier Dupre Fabienne Montaigne Pascal Wolff) Introduction governance Scope geographical coverage Main characteristics Legal 52 Common guidelines 53 Methodological concept 54 Sample requirements 55 Tracing rules 56 Information Some comparability Quality reports 59 Data 60 access Indicators computation Way forward 61 63 evolution incomes over time 65 Anne-Catherine headline 66 AROP indicator overall standards 68 bridge national accounts 73 Changes 78 EU‑SILC-based 82 Conclusions 86 87 Household structure subjective hardship 89 (Maria Iacovou) descriptive 90 Working clusters countries 91 Methodology 92 Defining household types Weighting 93 Results 94 counting households rather individuals 96 Composition income‑poor subjectively‑deprived populations 98 100 101 affluence polarisation viewed median 103 (Rolf Anthony Henrik Sigstad) dispersion theory 104 Affluence 105 Intersection cumulation 106 Specific measures 107 Dominance Summary 113 Dispersion bi‑polarisation tail‑heaviness 117 121 High affluence: 123 (Veli‑Matti Tormalehto) Definitions definitions surveys top end 124 Sensitivity errors tail 127 Comparison World Top Incomes Database 129 Measures richness 132 line Headcount transfer‑sensitive based multiplier thresholds shares 133 gaps redistribution‑based 134 dimensions 137 138 139 distributional impact imputed rent 2007-2012 141 Tormalehto Hannele Sauli) Measuring rents Conceptual Estimation methods 142 prevalence rental imputation housing tenure 143 completeness outliers 144 Completeness 145 values excess consumption Distributional effects 147 average level 149 156 157 public services 159 Audun Langorgen Petter Lindgren) Needs equivalence scales 160 Needs‑adjusted scale 161 method 162 Empirical implementation 163 Value Allocation 164 simplified representation NA 165 167 weights 168 At‑risk‑of‑poverty 169 Overlap between 171 12 172 173 Intra‑household pooling resources: tentative ‘modified’ equivalised 175 (Sophie Ponthieux) Theoretical literature 176 Methodology: construction 177 To what extent couples pool incomes? 178 Computing individual 180 Standard 184 Comparing gender risk 186 187 188 Material multidimensional 191 Amending indicator: size composition deprived population 193 (Anne‑Catherine Choice threshold 196 Impact definition change incidence MD Severe 200 alternative 201 203 206 207 child 209 David Gordon 210 Need holistic life‑cycle 211 13 Suitability items 212 Validity Reliability Additivity 213 Final children 223 Multidimensional 2006-2012: illustrating methodology 225 (Sabina Alkire Mauricio Apablaza) Brief review 226 Foster (AF) 227 228 Unit 229 Dimensions Uncensored headcount ratios deprivations 230 233 per country 234 Concluding remarks 237 238 estimates using 241 (Paola Serafino Richard Tonkin) matching 242 Headline 243 244 Housing-related 251 (Quasi-)joblessness 253 Characteristics 256 257 14 ‘at-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion’ (AROPE) 259 Extensive versus intensive margin: changing rate 261 (Andrea Brandolini Eliana Viviano) Accounting intensity 262 Calculation 265 EU‑LFS 266 selected 268 Weighted rates 271 272 15 Individual decomposition 279 (Vincent Corluy Frank Vandenbroucke) 280 Trends 283 Has become unequal time? 286 Relationship changes markets risks 289 Integrated market trends 291 296 297 16 Risk time: focus 299 overview 301 potential QJ 302 Permanent transitory? 306 308 AROPE 309 suggested 311 315 17 Euro Area wage crisis 317 Alfonso Rosolia) 318 Aggregate wages 319 Evolution earnings 322 Decomposition techniques 324 Decomposing EA 326 331 18 333 three subscales Problems 334 335 Country typology structures 336 Eligibility type 338 Single‑person couple‑only under age 339 Couples lone parents 343 Multiple disadvantages 345 poor severely 347 349 350 19 Nowcasting 353 (Chrysa Leventi Olga Rastrigina Holly Sutherland Jekaterina Navicke) 354 nowcast 356 Discussion 359 360 361 Dynamics 365 367 Marco Pomati) National severity 368 Dynamic 371 Stock flux Entry exit 373 entry 377 382 383 How cope shocks? longitudinal 385 386 Deprivation sequence 388 Visual sequence: 390 results 392 Item 395 397 398 22 attrition affect persistent rates? case 401 (Stephen P Jenkins Philippe Van Kerm) sample selection weighting 402 at‑risk‑of‑poverty 403 Samples Attrition 404 Sampling there? Who drops out? 405 there overall? Attrition’s effect precision 407 Generating bespoke retention regressions 412 What differential have? Indirect bias: comparisons Wave Is bias within range variability? 415 416 417 23 Exits changes: taking up job 419 (Celine Thevenot) value added multiannual Entering getting 421 transitions exiting 423 Transitions might refer various cases 425 Getting helps half 427 exits 430 433 434 24 opportunity Europe: 435 (Francesco Andreoli Alessio Fusco) Indices 436 Ex post 438 ante approaches 439 Using intergenerational modules study 440 Circumstances Outcome 441 442 Inequality indices 443 446 447 25 growing 449 (Luna Bellani Michela Bia) strategy 450 452 453 Propensity score-based Quantile treatment 457 459 460 Technical 463 26 465 (Yves Berger Guillaume Osier Tim Goedemé) Variance Description Extension estimators points 468 Numerical 469 Cross‑sectional Longitudinal 471 Imputation sources variability 477 27 Design improve 479 Iacovou Peter Lynn) 480 481 splits Whole‑household moves 484 Effect Minimising 490 Locating Making contact 491 Obtaining cooperation Checklist practices 492 options 493 Opportunities Non‑response 494 Practicalities 495 SWOT 496 registers 499 Markus Jantti integration: considerations 500 ‘old’ 501 ‘new’ 503 506 507 29 Planned 509 Dupre) Policy Modernisation 510 Objectives revision Approach 511 513 Implementation 515 Appendices 517 1: 519 2: abbreviations 521 3: Other acronyms 523 4: Author index 525 5: Subject 533 Tables Table Minimum effective cross‑sectional components 57 Definition gross disposable 74 Coverage (EU‑SILC NA) EU-27 2008 Regional Distribution regional cluster 2012 Percentages 95 Ranking Norway Poland 109 (upper row) curves (lower 112 respect 120 % pre‑tax (Income year 2009/Survey 2010) 131 (% total equivalent income) 95th 99th quantiles 2011/Survey 135 Redistribution‑based lines Medeiros 136 adding 148 Gini coefficient rents: minus without (pp‑change) Survey 2007-2012/Income 2006-2011 Effects (AROP) (IR) 150 at‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or‑social‑exclusion 152 2008-2012 155 SNA 2009 2006 170 men women couple‑households share he/she keeps separate 179 regime suffering 5+ ‘only’ (5+ lacked 13-item indicator) (3+ 9-item (9-item scale) Multinomial regression relative ratio according (EU MD) and/or (MD 5+) aged 0-59 205 Outcomes suitability validity reliability additivity tests 214 ‘Heat map’ providing item proportion lacking same 216 proposed child‑specific whole 220 (CH‑MD 3+) 221 Weights dimension 231 2006-2012 k=34 236 sizes standard matched datasets expenditure‑poor non‑expenditure 258 Missing months worked usual hours working‑age (16-64 years) 2004-2011 273 274 Hours week main 2005-2011 275 Share jobless 276 2004-2010 277 joblessness 1995-2012 285 2000-2012 EU-23 287 correlations post- pre‑transfer 2005-2012 EU-24 290 295 Individuals (%) concentration QJ‑ness 303 prior 307 Number (000) 314 Salaried 2007 monthly full‑time (MEGE) among full‑year employees 323 socio‑demographic 2001in 337 mean 2012-2013 358 Confidence interval intervals 379 Average exit/entry sub‑periods (2009-2012 2005-2008) (2008-2012) 380 (based 387 respondents number/type (out six Possible patterns 391 6: Best curtailment (2011) (2009) 393 7: 394 8: Rank Entry-into- exit-out-of confidence unemployed groups considered ‘similar profile’ propensity score 2010-2011-2012 (pooled) 431 difference estimated through unemployment benefit recipients non‑recipients 2010- 2011-2012 2005 Test averages outcomes status pooled 454 456 466 sub‑indicators (AROP SMD QJ) 2013 470 3a: Estimated margins net 472 3b: 473 3c: severe (SMD) 474 3d: 475 2010-2013 476 Adult re‑interview 2003-2010 483 Transition associated split 2003-2010) 485 Re‑interview (2003-2010) split‑off Location interviewed 486 leaving original divorce relationship separation sex 488 young (16-35) home 489 Structure revised 512 Figures chart Figure Progress 2005-2015 Overall non‑response Adjusted GHDI capita EU-15 (income 70 (continued) 71 Ratio 72 Unadjusted (S14) 76 2005- (EU‑SILC) 77 9a: Real unadjusted (Index = 100) 80 9b: 10: 81 11a: (EU‑SILC; Index 83 11b: 12: 84 13a: 85 13b: 14: Percentage 97 difficulty 99 108 Spain France Finland Bulgaria Germany 110 Slovakia UK 111 7a: primal 114 7b: dual 115 8a: affluence; k=1 116 8b: 118 119 allocation tails: unweighted belonging weighted top/bottom 125 Property 2006/ 126 Sweden 2011/survey semi‑parametric Pareto simulations 128 Pareto‑replaced 300 vingtiles 2009: adjusted units 130 convex concave (Peichl et al ) times Countries sorted affluent Excess (average gaps) high ends meet easily face unexpected expenses 200/250/300 percentage 2011/ receiving Prevalence outlying (HY030 interest repayments) doubling due (HY030-HY100G) 146 partners’ 182 modified partners 185 Gender (women/men) Cronbach’s alpha 195 People either 9) 13) 197 Difference 198 (4+ (7+ 199 Intersections ‘At (AROPE)’ (normal font) 7+ (bold italics i e 3+ lacks 202 9: Proportion comprised 204 215 Children 217 218 219 single large families CH‑MD 222 UN regions (2012) (2006-2012) 232 a) M0 cut‑offs b) (2006-2009-2012) 235 Chart Recipient donor HBS Breakdown 245 experiencing 247 materially 248 249 unable afford 250 additional (housing local environment) 252 (inner ring) (outer activity reference 254 11: 255 weekly employed (16-64) 2007- (pooled 264 Labour 267 (reference period 269 270 (ind) (hh) 1995-2008-2012 281 282 Actual (X) predicted (Y) 1995 284 Level (P) 1995-2000-2008-2012 288 293 304 Worked households’ unused 305 neither 310 Contribution annual variations 312 purchasing power parities 320 Selected macroeconomic 2014 321 core periphery deciles MEGE 327 position distributions 328 adjustment 329 330 (QJ_59 QJ_64) EU-28 age: single‑person (left‑hand panel) (right‑hand 341 sex: 342 children: parent 344 youngest child: Single multiple 346 348 c) At-risk-of-poverty (threshold: median): nowcasted 2009-2012/2013 Shares clustered shape trend 2005-2013 369 Change decomposed variation exactly 2005-2008 2008-2013 370 (standard) 2009-2012 (cross‑sectional) once during (longitudinal) persistently 372 (2009-2012) 374 Rates grouped 375 376 Examples where decrease (cluster then increase (U shape) 378 after relatively flat ‘trigger events’ odds logistic robust 2008-2011 381 cannot 389 characteristic (ICCs) (cross‑sectional 396 Retention 406 408 Estimates (2008) 414 Types trajectories 420 Persistent 422 Exit attachment 424 non‑employment adults (unemployed inactive) found 426 enough leave poverty? (non‑working at‑risk‑of‑poverty) exited Exit-out-of-poverty transition 2010-2011 429 while benefits group profiles 432 30 Boxes Box transitions: periods 428 Equality 444 445 Disadvantage opportunities treated (ATT) 458 2004-2012 504 coefficients interview register/ 2004-2013 505 6-year rotational model (1) aims contribute substantive can applied yield insights assembles studies carried funded ‘Second expected input strengthening Heads government agreed (2) Nuffield (Oxford UK) INET Oxford Martin (LISER formerly CEPS/ INSTEAD) supported coordinated LISER bears no analyses conclusions solely smart includes five ‘headline targets’ achieved One specific bound whole: ‘promoting aiming EU’ (European Council measured ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or‑social‑exclusion’ consists indicators: ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty’ Chapter book); ‘severe deprivation’ (people four nine covering aspects conditions; 10); ‘very low covers variety follows: • foreword; (Chapters 2); 9); 13); 19); 25); 29) intensity’ referred ‘(quasi-)joblessness’ 16) (most recent when adopted 2010)) relates except Ireland Section 2) discussion Frazer (2014) thorough challenges linked Natali Dam next section (Section brief summary chapter reader obtain impression consider raised researchers There evident implications look broadly Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals respond September 2015 agreement? opens account instrument: Emilio Wolff describe currently implemented Every 000 microdata sent legal binding ‘framework’ procedures classifications harmonised variables transmitted pertaining allowing person/ 4-year demography education bring EU‑SILC‑based (national accounts) aggregates argue necessary perspective; begins (the considers relation Moving step seeks identify reasons differences From makes improvements underlying illuminate differing 3-year preceding financial subsequent Maria examines compares perspectives considering varies terms single‑adult lone‑parent highest However proportionally numerous Nordic North‑Western Southern Eastern latter dependent constitute largest (income) living‑in‑hardship population; adult extended‑family shows come via substantial another primarily evidently combat Different features brought Sigstad aim allows ready 35 Such unified contributes debate largely literatures (to limited degree) complementary purpose test robustness drawn choice whole? purposes quintile (3) (4) informative sufficient surfaced debate: ‘squeezing middle’ ‘racing away’ investigated Veli‑Matti tails Given ‘survey’ ‘register’ 28) under‑estimation compute such simple headcounts Finally addresses link non‑income finding identification concludes useful economically well‑off (S80/S20) (80 higher) lowest %) cumulative accounted percentages ranging 0 cent (complete equality) none) issue arise owner‑occupied Known significant Sauli incorporation tend reduce elderly consistency Over improved respects shortcomings stability transparency Consequently conclude Extending equally subject Lindgren healthcare long‑term care childcare valuation rely group‑specific accounting fact receipt introduce theory‑based (needs‑adjusted in‑kind transfers reduces approximately underlines importance measuring well‑being assumes few thematic module ‘Intra‑household al1 36 location resources’ multi‑person keep Sophie Ponthieux proposes one‑couple show departing assumption leads increased magnitude illustrates resulting assumptions equal intra‑household author suggests collect arrangements chapters deal (MD) process seven derived (i suitable reliable valid additive) aggregate collected (which specifically devoted systematic move whereas significantly socioeconomic summarises in‑depth identifies recommends regular long distinguished history conceptual philosophical Sabina Apablaza illustrate They calculate accommodate draw environment Aggregated short increasing whether appropriate Paola Tonkin compare people’s exposure measures: joint Therefore Budget statistically Belgium analyse overlap 14-19) switches Andrea Viviano notion As defined International hour classified crude 37 diversity contract durations observed demonstrate modify Their ‘work intensity’-adjusted approximated gap Northern narrows adjusting Though neatly highlight exploring flexible At live participation diminishes seems less Prior regarded qualified success field if causal relationships agenda Yet failed deliver promise concerning Notwithstanding generally higher did succeed reducing Hence missing links (or failure) Vincent Vandenbroucke explores relying Force (i) offer adequate explanation (ii) factors yields interesting states followed ‘good years’ ‘crisis period’ decreasing structural background evolving States’ performance regard diverse central concern making presents assessment (quasi-) cross‑country (QJ) suggesting captures phenomena interpret small point choices happened crisis? Rosolia determinants substantially larger driven mainly (Greece Italy Spain) Based decreased (Austria Netherlands) costs fallen 6-8 salaried boosted thus obscuring sizeable downward especially bottom depends pay 38 investigates She finds elevated non‑elderly (with children) depending Among particularly numbers babies cycle: older ages having failsafe lack synonymous disadvantage raises ability effectively Since timeliness critical effectiveness interventions complicated nature processing complexity 2-year delay (3 ago efforts System) Chrysa Navicke microsimulation‑based nowcasting yet term ‘nowcasting’ here refers Enhancing tax‑benefit EUROMOD up‑to‑date macro‑level twelve 2009- assessed comparing ‘true’ provisional dramatic leading explore capture objective Pomati estimate Both (before during/after crisis) turn persistence By looking explains why similar came play explain increases affected individual/ resources temporal fully understood necessitates Although subset dataset obtained Response Theory confirm aid interpretation Interestingly suggest degree homogeneity 39 curtail despite contexts date portfolio (Social Protection Committee 2015) (5) Evidence undoubtedly complement drop‑out samples (‘attrition’) thereby selective lead Stephen Kerm vary cross‑national lost follow‑up application (‘attritors’) bounds Likewise advantage Celine Thevenot lessons observing adults’ situation highlights non‑employed (Council 2011) commonly continuously fine‑tuned complemented Sub‑Group (http://ec eu/social/main jsp?catId=830&langId=en) On developed also: (2002) (2007) inadequate feature itself special covered schemes perform well‑designed preventing entries Francesco Fusco studying distributed ‘type’ circumstances origin responsible) ‘effort’ example educational choices…) identical Otherwise prevails quantifying assessing transmission Waves consistent normative equality coincide (dis)advantage experienced later induced heterogeneity perfectly mirror portrait Luna Bia individual’s problems childhood decreases adulthood probability 26-29) When variance wrongly interpreted Yves Goedeme waves theoretically sound class designs extended complex linearisation numerical however read caution Users’ Databases (UDB) Throughout whenever feasible significance testing Lynn regulation ‘following rules’ (that determine member(s) traced reinterviewed circumstances) address; higher‑thanaverage moving ‘best practice’ minimising producing Institutes community reviews summarising Workshop 2013) describes planned Commission’s ‘Social Investment Package’ ‘Beyond GDP’ initiative responsiveness revising aimed modernising integration standardisation multi‑mode at: modularising adapting periodicity needs; availability latest June year; (iii) releasing early evolutions; (iv) integrating variables; (v) possibly extending phenomenon recurrences; (vi) breakdowns extensive means learned lot remarkably successful policy‑making Without able quantified develop evidence‑based impossible investment profitably adapt Moreover comparative follows these: linking accounts; combining data; confronting putting indicators; questioning concepts; noted outset sharp evaluation side judged Gross Domestic Product (GDP); increasingly clear sides story told Put simply add appropriately arrive amount accounts? Or tell rise fall question acquired greater (SPC) (unadjusted) (6) (aggregate sector) described ‘providing developments’ contrast taken immediately comparable calculation area OECD therefore grounds expecting non‑profit serving sector separated constructing concerns under‑statement certain forms property self‑employment consideration corrective supplementation (including modelling cash transfers) third price deflate money apply ‘Unadjusted’ allowance kind encourage administrative expansion offers advantages shorter questionnaires lower demands hence accurate possibilities cross‑validation partial poses quote ‘the country‑case within‑country time’ (2013 p 33) illustrated ‘register countries’ (Netherlands Sweden) figure non‑register below adoption led jump micro macro handled doubts agree ‘for cost utilisation note ‘greatest gains stem replacing possible’ 32) extensively discussed Cantillon Nolan (2002 pp 82-83) recognise arguments validated (then Community (ECHP) EU‑SILC) Surveys comparison merge investigation merged conclusion length: ‘on appear assertion examined Comparisons slightly poverty’ explored extremely Before showing During helped actual shown before/after allow MD; complementing behind missed Chapters remind ‘standard’ nine) 4-lack threshold) Indeed condition decent life; deserves Despite proved along summarised proposal facing difficulties basket (Chapter 21) encouraging System decided follow primary annually Complementing differ parents’ Net‑SILC2; analyses) Regularly collecting Here again likely repeated year) 2016 SPC identified Increasing launched Jobs Summit 1997 translated 2000; 75 20-64 ‘should employed’ highly misleading ways render irrelevant ‘job’ longer count ‘jobs’ re‑considered workers Work With picture addressed suggestions 20-25 (panel) result dynamic processes 23) (quasi-)joblessness) stake explained experiences builds So harmonising strict correct window extension length ‘would permit broader precursors causes status; ’ cycle society against Much reported went press decade agreement longer‑term horizon impetus (SDGs) Millennium indicated title ‘Transforming world: Agenda Development’ SDGs seek because scope ‘this unprecedented accepted applicable realities capacities respecting priorities universal involve entire alike inequality: Goal End everywhere elements consist following: eradicate extreme USD day (previously Reduce progressively sustain average; empower promote political irrespective disability race ethnicity religion ambition abolition expressed standardised (7) framed Japan ‘high income’ (The criterion head 735 surrounding documents frequent references governments ‘each Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) Standards (PPS) convert amounts currency artificial equalises currencies currency) setting guided Each decide aspirational incorporated planning strategies’ (2015 para 55) little politico‑economic unions search document (2015) ‘EU’ capitals) reveals matches groupings provision Reference Economic Latin America Caribbean (ECLAC) Asian adopting advanced believe seize created establish relevant 2015-2020) occasion remain beyond continue down target) Together calculating (Ferreira inserted zero open U Shaefer Edin 2014) argued consequence scaling back ‘a American emerged: virtually (2014 Chandy Smith (…) generate Americans $2 zero’ 3) inability precise ought addressed’ 17) ask EU? migration pressing definitional already previous section: basing adequately captured issue: non‑coverage non‑household uses attempt problem Carr‑Hill (2013) globally frames institutional (hospitals prisons refugees) slum pastoralists While serious Any steps direction cautious endeavour homelessness topic Horizon natural establishment SDG nationally twice broad EU‑wide sixth 2020; (2015- 2030) quarter thinking disappointing disagreeing Key Messages report lifting Furthermore collective (2015a 12) falling (rounded nearest million) risen 2012-2014 marked arrow indicating heading applies instance desk Minister Affairs Finance Faced failure leaders throw towel write off ‘lost decade’ pushed devastating millions Halving continent contains S80/S20 above) proposing simplest 1986 received ‘income growth’ formulation rising 2014: compared 2018 2019 656 122 936 908 208 661 604 79 498 989 872 461 986 858 046 065 755 834 527 094 022 774 411 850 745 hhds 520 051 606 549 995 140 Baseline achievement thousands) Reading note: (survey) lived (quasi-)jobless sum (AROPE combine reached Source: (codes t2020_50 t2020_51 t2020_52 t2020_53) downloaded corresponding variable focused package pursued overarching R & D/innovation climate education) evaluating conjunction Indicators: Inclusion University Press ‘Missing progress’ Vol 30-44 L C ‘How America’s poorest? context’ Paper 2014-03 Brookings Institution Washington DC Opinion on: reinvigorating OMC Doc 10405/11 Brussels Available eu/social/ BlobServlet?docId=10803&langId=en (Accessed: 2016) K H day: nothing Houghton Mifflin Chicago EUROPE 2020: Communication COM(2010) 2010: http://www consilium eu/ueDocs/ cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/ec/115346 pdf Ferreira F Chen Dabalen Dikhanov Y Hamadeh N Jolliffe D Narayan Prydz Revenga Sangraula Serajuddin Yoshida ‘A 2012’ No 7432 -C Vanhercke Ward ‘Putting agenda: Mid‑Term Review Strategy’ OSE Series EU: M V -M EU–SILC: paper inclusion: Facing Bristol Towards Lang ‘Rising Federal means‑tested transfers’ Service 250-268 Pathways Summer 28-32 49 Portfolio Update (2015a) Aiming Annual Report Draft resolution submitted President General Assembly 69th Session A/69/L introduces Its insight Reliable timely computed pan‑European reflecting multi‑dimensional consequences complete (8) Address correspondence: ESTAT‑SECRETARIAT‑F4@ec eu private households; institution borne carrying interpreting 2003 gradually countries: former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia Iceland Serbia Switzerland Turkey; tested Montenegro Small territory amounting excluded territories: French Overseas Departments territories Dutch West Frisian Islands exception Texel lastly Scilly required implement idea opposed har- Dupré monised lists Two Eurostat: November (N+1) manage send deadline confined reduced designed subgroups (N-3) (N+2) (9) Rotational sub‑samples replications representative maintained dropped replaced essentially observations (10) avoiding unnecessary duplications entirely recommended Only (9 (8 panels moved Currently Kingdom derives instruments existence requirement accession conception ad hoc permanent stakeholders Group chaired Specifically components: Framework Regulation (11) financing amended Nos 1553/2005 (12) 1791/2006 (13) extend joined May 2004 after) Five Regulations specify ‘Definitions’ (14) ‘Fieldwork procedures’ (15) ‘Sampling tracing (16) ‘List (annual) variables’ (17) ‘Quality reports’ (18) (EC) 1177/2003 Parliament amending Decisions reason Romania 1980/2003 updated 676/2006 implementing regards 1981/2003 fieldwork 1982/2003 1983/2003 28/2004 intermediate secondary frequently Turkey candidate compulsory join strongly encouraged permits stock volume) institutes Task‑Forces reporting word publicly (19) yearly fine‑tune topics countries; Strategic regarding meetings Directors See https://circabc (ad modules) forwarded sets principle flexibility needed construct Nevertheless wordings although obliged relate more) level: basic/core information; basic/demographic introduced 2005: inter‑generational poverty; 2015: cultural participation; 2012: 2008: over‑indebtedness exclusion; deprivation; resources; 2011: disadvantages; 2013: well‑being; 2016: adhere closely Canberra (20) sense EU‑SILC: (GI) (DI) as: GI EI + SEI PP CTR OI DI – CTP Where: Employee (cash near‑cash employee non‑cash income; employers’ insurance included) Self‑employment (but goods consumption) Pensions plans Current (social inter‑household received) (such capital paid (tax paid) ‘Gross ‘Employers’ contributions’ company cars recorded beginning Handbook unece org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/groups/cgh/ Canbera_Handbook_2011_WEB employers (yet) broken profits losses self‑employment’ royalties) ‘Value consumption’ Various allowed Private pension Regular pensions ‘Current annuities dividend discretion contributor independently family children‑related allowances old‑age survivors’ sickness education‑related ‘other elsewhere classified’ Three item: ‘Income land’ ‘Interest dividends unincorporated business’ 16’ ‘Tax ‘Regular taxes wealth’ paid’ Imputed dwelling (owner‑occupiers) enjoy subsidised rents) (21) (For requires flags delivered homogeneous performed calendar conducted N-1 (put differently ‘survey year’ N-1) listed sliding centred asked (and usual) month annualised distant inconsistency income‑related variables) limit lag residing language nationality residence eligible operation Representative frame assigned known updates define minimum ‘effective’ random (design ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty rate’ 0) exceeds compensate kinds consecutive successfully gives min2 imum (plus Switzerland) proxy interviews substitutions duration ‘following’) subsamples (four design) panel/ subsample representing (See details (members selection) panel/subsample restrictions owing staying abroad outside EU) normally temporarily months) strength weakness embedding systems harmonisation Almost encourages practice volume): −−‘Old’ (Denmark Netherlands Slovenia Sweden): demographic ‘selected respondent model’ details) member questionnaire Households Persons 750 Czech Denmark Estonia Greece Croatia Cyprus Latvia 650 600 Lithuania Hungary Malta Total 700 950 58 −−‘New’ retrieving inter alia ‘non‑register’ representativeness enable probabilistic (22) stochastic algorithms select dwellings addresses: Kingdom; households: Switzerland; individuals: (all Lithuania) unbiased firm control trade‑off sub‑national Significant quota derogation Differences (exceptions: respondent’ model) fill receives impacts (longitudinal dimensions) adaptation avoid obviously mode CAPI (computer assisted interview) prevalent (Belgium PAPI (paper pencil eight (Bulgaria Slovakia) CATI telephone (Finland Self‑administered residual mixed modes stages: non‑mandatory (5 (6 exceeded (51 (63 introduction creation models external desirable post‑stratification sophisticated Adopted Code Practice independence integrity accountability authorities undertaken adopt addressed: relevance: users; accuracy reliability: accurately reliably portray reality; punctuality: disseminated punctual manner; coherence comparability: internally sources; accessibility clarity: Production understandable convenient manner accessible impartial supporting metadata guidance monitored prepared level) managed IT system preliminary collects contacts validation shared summarise evaluate establishing (23) aggregated records confidential meaning Article 223/2009 (Statistical Law) indirect (individuals households) monetary pre‑defined folder extracted formats (24) 557/2013 granted release anonymised Anonymised accordance anonymisation suppression recoding randomisation Twice releases (encrypted CD‑ROM documentation) revisions description procedure accessing (25) tool place: ‘Joint Assessment framework’ (JAF) JAF underpins domain dialogue quantitatively pillar focuses (not widely mon- publications accessed eu/eurostat/web/income‑and‑living‑conditions/ statistics‑illustrated eu/eurostat/web/microdata/overview itor objectives) delegations experts secretariat Directorate‑General ‘Employment Inclusion’ close Eurostat) enabled these) enriched portfolios: ‘overarching’ cooperate (Poverty Pensions; Healthcare care) (26) permanently (27) Even (potential) activities effort (28) network hosted jsp?catId=830&langId=en eu/eurostat Conference 16-17 http://ine pt/scripts/eu‑silc2014/conference html wide‑ranging are: modernisation collections wider frames; future; faster; maintain adapted frequency keeping cross‑cutting approach; burden breakdown; measurements; multi‑modes multi‑sources collections; element (e g non‑annual component) (29) eagerly watched (GDP) Recovery short‑term medium‑term matters ‘Directorate‑General Financial Affairs’ ‘Economic (ECOFIN)’ arriving represented judging (UK) (Luxembourg) Emanuela Falco her calculations Comments Frederic Caruso Michael Forster Maxime Ladaique d’Ercole gratefully remaining authors’ Email guio@liser lu Health Consumer (EPSCO)’ welcome signs Criticism GDP recognises boundaries everyday (30) reconnected (OECD 2013’ recognition (31) Stiglitz‑Sen‑Fitoussi OECD‑Eurostat Fesseau Mattonetti ‘Poverty’ systematically demonstrated clearly divergence fell protected automatic stabilisers packages Later austerity raising (will be) benefiting return prosperity events fruits longer‑term) differed raise (Jantti (2013); reconciled themes examination reconciliation principal start begin investigate sources? possibility incorporating course concluding (32) well‑known pre‑crisis 2006- 2009) (33) true (referred (34)) (35) web‑database address: eu/eurostat/data/database (contrary apart (total calculated (calculation survey) (34) According steps: (these plus deducted sum); household’s (net) divided ‘equivalent so‑called OECD‑modified (equivalence) weight (1 14); finally attributed (adults ‘New’ 67 offset reductions movements meant showed 2009-2013) remained stable peak rose (16 euro zone rises opposite Between (36) decline Conversely returning principally (from 7) Measured Relative record doubled halved employing want judge Renais- 0+ code ilc_li11 sance medium (2005 Where earlier constant seeing certainly anchor uprated inflation done anchored fixed moment time’) decreasing) worsening Application rate: (37) happening give Committee’s (SPC 39) comparison: (set (NA) (GHDI) (38) indicator; (PPS; (39) cited (40) compensation operating surplus/mixed analogue figure: (used NA); (threshold) (NA); terminology ‘gross’ deduction ‘net’ remove power: denominator numerator ‘growth income’; kind; d) Non‑Profit Institutions (NPISH); e) Non‑private f) Of (a) (d) cause total; (b) operates (c) (e) (f) (NA available) expect If (by factor 55/50) Secondly closer three‑quarters (so mean) warrants reinforced 69 fairly remainder smaller spread sharply (unweighted EU-27; excluded) micro‑data (41) (http:// ec eu/eurostat/web/microdata/overview) NB: Breaks Statistics/Employment indicators/Social tessi014; Statistics/National accounts/Annual nasa_nf_tr tee00113 (2005) Break switch Mean quite range: 06 implies place words ‘shortfall’ mean/median considered? break salient (Cyprus negative turned (whole period) (Survey 05 Equivalisation everyone counts economies (except one‑person household) fraction euros EUR 811 Across (strong correlation) varying documented 18) elements: equivalisation affects seem stronger: closing discrepancy unequivalised narrow Joint Expert (42) clearer See: http://search oecd org/officialdocuments/ publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=STD/CSTAT/WPNA(2013)9/ RD&docLanguage=En heavily direct modified? 645 62 64 distinction denoted B7g B6g (STiK) STiK NA‑based takes juncture Non-profit (NPISH) S14 NPISH S15 (Non‑Profit Serving Households) charities churches societies trade parties sports clubs Eurostat‑OECD (Mattonetti (2013)) appears EU- sector: billion Transfers Kind adds subtracts Recommendation newly excluding (already mentioned (mean/median NPISH) straight benchmark distinct pattern distinguish two‑thirds Finland) caused jump: D1 Compensation B2g B3g D4 D7 D62 D61 D5 D63 =B7g comes in‑between (a country) 2007) Exceptions (43) (country‑specific) re‑assuring paradoxically treat consistently maximum +/- 03 drop exclude boarding schools retirement homes hospitals nursing religious etc exercise non‑private totals Annex arises statements target; differs categories assume (registers surveys) 530 category Rainwater Smeeding Wages salaries worrying baseline focus: ‘reduced scope’ omits Intermediation Services Indirectly (FISIM) holders appropriateness standpoint houses analysed ranges ‘operating surplus favourable mortgage outgoing (part costs) subtraction incomplete (business loans re‑done desired routes obvious retrospectively sensitivity deficiencies proportionate adjustments scaled x changed? Following under‑recording confrontation indeed news speaking notable exceptions coherent majority re‑assured painted separately Have began accompanied income? capita: Crucial recourse exchange (2015)) Manual observes ‘many require PPPs country’s used’ (Eurostat‑OECD influenced insofar feed domestic prices underline Taxes Operating ‘which index?’ deflator Milusheva Gal 2012): ‘Final aggregates’ (Eurostat nama_fcs_p) Harmonised Prices (HCIP: prc_hicp_aind) ‘individual’ themselves spending consumers curtailed Gerstberger Yaneva judgment HICP approximates media FISIM (financial indirectly measured) readily difference: area: ‘small’ (less (more warrant (nasa_nf_tr) deflated (2005-2008 2008-2012) saw positive middle annum post‑crisis losers (Figure order: stand (France) moderate Positive (between situation) nasa_nf_tr; (series 88 assess (44) often respectively stagnating 28-29) greatly faced begun displayed 389) reversing First just examining parallel discrepancies 19) replace apparent strong (10 levelling‑off fifteen rapid 2008; ahead Hungary) calculations); (index instead) Median 2014; UDB 190 coming unsung hero story: Panel embark poorer played formation limitations warm supporters placed subjected stringent chapter: reassuringly reassurance carry median/mean (called 4) reveal employ policy‑makers well‑advised concentrate CASE/188 (1995) Paris M‑L cross ‘Analysis expenditure: Baltic crisis’ Focus 2/2013 Challenges varied US 2010’ 35/2012 board: happen Stiglitz J Sen Fitoussi -P Measurement Performance agency (INSEE) Introduction45 EU’s (AROP; (46); extends offering types; Second disadvantage: denotes Third targeting policy: (45) Sciences Methods Centre Cambridge Department Sociology grateful comments drafts mi305@cam ac uk (46) Eurostat’s online Explorer facility http://appsso eurostat eu/nui/show do?dataset=ilc_li03&lang=en disadvantage; directions influencing individuals’ nexus detail (Iacovou sufficiency right attention: attention (Atkinson Bourguignon 2010; Fredriksen more); (Forster 2005; 2008); (Bradbury 1999; Aassve 2007; Rendall Speare 1995) typically disparities dispersions rates) parts somewhat 2004; Tomassini Andersson Robson Berthoud 2003; Skew Hantrais 2006; Hoem 2009; Mandic Liefbroer Fokkema Saraceno others) deals Europe; Western Large reasons: fertility home‑leaving co‑residence describing aspect Efficiencies researched 1994; factored adjust ‘modified OECD’ rankings (Burniaux 1998) artefact sort answer definitively alongside self‑reports sensitive (UDB Version August namely seriously 12-month (Debels Vandecasteele 2008) involves t+1 t) t Heuberger (2003) files; falls indicates perspective: ‘household (47) Thinking expenses?’ answered difficulty) (very easily) question: ‘In expenses? Please meet) amount; create stated depend analyst used) shortcoming resident perceptions members; un- his/her fortunately ‘poverty’ ‘hardship’ ‘subjective hardship’ ‘disadvantage’ generic Full country‑by‑country containing cells arguably human brain space clarity graphical cell uncommon tabular request defined? typological grouping seminal welfare‑regime‑based schema Esping‑Andersen (1990 1999) theory; (2004) arrived example) redistribution empirically Because (discussed defining purpose‑built distance algorithm selecting squared deviations (SSD) reflects chosen fourfold 1999); ‘southern’ Ferrera (1996) displaying forms; categorises ‘liberal’ ‘conservative’ assigning commonalities Ten < > Couple (married cohabiting) whom child(ren) Lone consisting Extended Non‑nuclear three‑generation partner spouse lodgers unrelated sharers properly recovered grid (row percentages) 65+ smallest (extended countries) Author’s 2012-2 point; ‘trim’ all‑EU none perfect Procedures proportional normal Eurostat); mean; Option dominated populous expense Under option influence inflated hundred square root huge margin horizontal graph; left‑hand alone (percentages composed (under North-West South East 60% 32 50% ‘with di_culty’ children; (where poor) 18; co‑resident Turning deeper comparatively vulnerable 65; singles region suffer assistance insufficient payable younger lesser equity yielding ‘poor’ compositions needs‑based incorporate adequacy absolute (Berthoud reflected Column poverty: Subjective hardship: difficulty’ defines ‘in ‘get by’ (48) hardship; Once (elderly non‑elderly) likely; ‘other’ right‑hand not) observe (particularly) nominal adults) Strictly (49) 2; marginally reversed Equivalised base; sizeable: unchanged unit headed beneficial finances earning outweighed nil assert great- individuals) 617 ly countries? concentrated rank pairs Spearman’s correlation exhibit similarities clusters: greatest (50) subjectivelydeprived sections revealed minority individuals; indi- viduals highest‑risk North/ (around restrict (getting breakdown graphs) Looking upper graphs depicting clusters; dominate correspond4 graphs)) block (60 HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS ing (Nordic (Southern couple‑headed proportions (11 holds Taking one- two‑parent 44-45 North‑West counted nevertheless North/Western numbers; instead considerable %)) regions; precisely reported; attempted other; dilemmas nuclear questionable non‑nuclear swathes Davia Mazzuco ‘Does poor? Journal Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie 315-338 G ‘Children’s disruption formation: FFS Demographic (2000) Elsevier‑North Holland Amsterdam Reinstadler inequality’ Studies ‘Calibrating cross‑European line’ ISER 2012-02 Essex Welfare Edward Elgar Cheltenham Bradbury (1999) Child industrialized nations Unicef Florence Burniaux Dang Fore Oxley (1998) Papers 189 Debels household-based correcting bias’ Wealth 71-88 (1990) Worlds Capitalism Polity foundations postindustrial “Southern model” 17-37 (1994) ‘Measurement Low Perspective Comparisons’ Market Occasional Half 1990s’ Migration 2005-1 Union’ 952 Philipov Billari (2006) Publishing coll Strasbourg (2003 June) gets EPUNET https://www iser essex uk/files/conferences/ epunet/2003/docs/pdf/papers/heuberger Kostova Jasilioniene ‘Traces eastern union manifestation’ 239-255 ‘Patterns Family Living’ ‘Household fit in?’ 465-490 102 O Zolyomi ‘Poverty survey’ ‘Recent attitudes behaviour: Europe?’ Surkyn Deboosere Bavel century: art VubPress 115-141 ‘Home‑Leaving exploratory study’ Housing 615-636 ‘Elderly alleviation family’ 383-405 ‘Teenage Motherhood Multi‑Country Socioeconomic Outcomes’ Sociological 451-466 Enlarged Alber Fahey Life Routledge London/New York Glaser Wolf van Groenou Grundy ‘Living people: USA’ 24-34 surprising tended tendency hollowed encompassing becomes policymakers recognised contextual (51) Norway; Contact: Aaberge@ssb valuable versions generated English translation Thomas Piketty’s Capital Twenty Century (Piketty Attention racing Anglo‑Saxon ladder Do ambitions agenda? Are failing exclusion? turns arena debates (52) arbitrariness know per( 52) ‘bi‑polarisation’ notably pioneered Esteban Ray (1994 1999 Duclos centage cut‑off ‘gaming system’ concentrating cut‑off? familiar ones characterised keywords: graphics dominance embodied Lorenz curve 1905 graphic device cumulating bottom; Lorenz‑superior (dominates) depart satisfactory turning ‘median wealth) “typical” wealth)’ (Stiglitz 13-14 Executive Summary) ‘middle class’ recommendation Task (53)) (53) previously 2002 94) reference? z z* F(z*) F() Whereas z+ left F(z) median) vertical axis dashed demarcates permissible intersect dominates space: specified unknown x‑th percentile ‘dual’ investigating decile runs publishes originally Wolfson (1992/2010) (we upside down) (1-F(z)) ≥ inverts Concern ‘affluence’ paragraph F** reading enter (54) ‘rich’ dis- http://topincomes g‑mond parisschoolofeconomics (‘poverty’) median; (‘affluence’) ½ A_uence tance (55) Peichl Schaefer Scheicher (2010 608) ‘arbitrary Brzezinski Again 1-F Suppose z** z- lies unless (z- disagree definite ranking attaching proceeded attached integral) first‑degree (of distribution) second‑degree curve) cumulate poorest ranks functions marginal increase) starts never attach Reasons (56) downwards signalled axiom ensures linearity (F function parameter k determines rapidly (z x/M) (1-z) (k-1) Foster‑Greer‑Thorbecke (FGT) measure; corresponds (1976) (57) diverge (at z=0 F=0) z=1 F= k=2 quartile ex- assuming Ψk coincides FGT Π2coincides plains (exceptions UK; Negative students student Students partly justified Students’ temporary (national) z= ‘noise’ occurs approached restricted indistinguishable reject hypothesis (over range) took said poverty/affluence nowhere (‘identical’) (‘intersecting’) (Alternatively horizontally k_(1–z)k–1 F(Mz)dz Primal: Πk k_(1–2F(Mz))k–1 (1–z)dF(Mz) Dual: (note Λk k_(z–1)k–1 (1–F(Mz)) dz _ Γk k_(2F(Mz)–1)k–1 (z–1)dF(Mz) (median parameter; distribution; formulae converges eye Fewer proportionately threshold; fewer Also inside Above performing performs Authors’ Dominant X applying criteria 0≤ ≤0 (poverty) 5≤ ≤ (affluence) (58) (no Ireland) cases: marks (57 all) NO NL CZ SI FI FR CY SE AT CH LU HU MT DK SK DE PL PT LT HR EE BG LV ES RO EL ? row column Norway: sign Iceland; (Table coincide) Many ranked similarly scores (high rankings) (low performers index? 7a 7b k=3 k=4 indication 8a 8b (In BE IE (__) IS Ψ1 Ψ2 Ψ3 Ψ4 __ Λ1 Λ2 Λ3 Λ4 Bickel Lehmann (1979 34) (defined percentiles equidistant indexed formal combines 9a dispersed 9b Percentile Cumulating (Doksum 1969 1169): decomposing heaviness (when (figures rounded) diagnostic (Spain Romania) Greece) score; (Lithuania tail‑heavy ‘relaxed’ cumulates (Foster 1992/2010) illustration (psi1) (lambda1) Tail‑heaviness Bosnia giving Δ2** Λ2* Bi-polarisation (__*) Tail-heaviness (__**) (Foster‑Greer‑Thorbecke measures) exploited ‘Ranking intersecting curves’ 235-259 watershed’ 749 ‘Measuring incomes: Piketty twentieth 18-42 101-103 Poland’ 285-299 Doksum (1969) ‘Starshaped transformations tests’ Annals Mathematical 1167-1176 J‑Y ‘Polarization: Concepts estimation’ Econometrica 1737-1772 ‘On polarization’ 819-851 ‘Conflict distribution’ 379-415 ‘Comparing polarization measures’ Garfinkel Skaperdas Peace Conflict 127-151 Recommendations Programme meeting 26-27 1998 ‘Polarization class: Canada 247-273 Richness Poverty: Micro Germany’ 597-619 twenty‑first Harvard Mass writing tax Saez 2011; reasonable something register‑based coupled reweighting structured (59) wishes author’s veli‑matti tormalehto@stat fi scenarios goes ‘richness’ derive (version (dividends Italy) modified‑OECD allocated Törmälehto normalised elaborated volatile taxable realised rank‑based (60) coding censoring truncation top‑coded top‑coding Regarding routines erroneous implausible (Tormalehto 2017; mostly non‑sampling uncertainty rescaling bootstrap (Rao Wu Yue 1992) partially circumvented pseudo‑design height internet bubble 2000 whilst 2006) poorly Estimating rare domains (sub‑populations) stratified Kennickell Understandably oversampling correlated compensated calibration Vermeulen gained (estimated) randomly disproportionate stratification) Somewhat Absolute thickness (2017) Beyond Whilst estimat6 sample) 352 (901 persons) (224 Bottom skewed shares) thumb practise estimations 2-3 implying safety rule That assumed +/-1 positively (true) misreporting (61) self‑reported evasion contain interview‑based party non‑regular 2013; Alkemade Endeweld attributable auxiliary consequently (bias variance) implementations (capital) profit sleeping excludes Register perhaps stands contrasted (62) (received‑paid) (gross Rents Interest striking changed conspicuous income: jumped here) detect absence going richest outlier 2017) correctly Under‑estimation Forbes wealthy conceived actually simulated (complementary) 1-F(y) (k/y)α α>1 k>0 law hold α (Pareto index) Lower fatter μ/(μ-k) μ Supposing fatten exceeding hypothetical (63) draws heavier‑tailed three‑country dotted parameters (α) (64) Replacing Drawing drawing α=1 under‑reporting Swedish Finnish (pseudo-)maximum likelihood 11-12 (first dots) (second dot) imply re‑ranking under‑estimated indicative Pareto‑replacement viable knowledge solid heavier 5) (both values) April coe_cient (Pareto-replaced) Assuming correspond Original Simulated benchmarks aside country‑specific (WTID) (65) WTID tax‑based quantile Tax Alvaredo eu/ meaningful Below modifying pos6 sible (66) UDB‑based serves IDS database (IDS tribution implied tax‑free allowances) accrue retrieved II III IV VI VII VIII IX XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX 5% Vingtile (taxable 15+) (adjusted pre-tax 16+) (equivalent (67) Except approximate con- closest WTID‑definition constructed fidence limits replicates Calibration caveats incoherent ruled person‑weighted 2009* (pp) (2009 incomes) DPI (+/-0 pp) (+/- (retrieved (percentage points) rows evolved review; resources) percentile) eradication (Medeiros ordering volume; Bose Chakravarty d’Ambrosio orderings evaluated Whether say determined space’ middle‑income choose ‘people (deciles percentiles) fix Averaging roughly 200-250 rank‑preserving insensitive react 1988) variants drawback transfers‑sensitive transfer rank‑preserv6 progressive billionaire millionaire inconsistent Pigou‑Dalton proper intuitive straightforward easy communicate attractive properties (90th 99th) elite (α=2) (β=3) Convex Concave accruing (68) (top table (cells highlighted) crossings piecewise Lorenz‑curves (point‑estimate based) affluence‑dominance thicker affluence‑dominates tied inconclusive (code ilc_di010) ignore tells counterpart shortfall function) excesses otherwise consumer variant funds non‑rich financed (affluence Hypothetically transferred eradicated ignoring Let p96 p97 p98 ilc_di010 637 278 607 298 (Purchasing (PPS)) PPS 400 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 (wealth particular) neglect guarantee non‑monetary shortfalls Unfortunately distinguishing useful: finance borrowing restricting (HS120) 1/12th (HS060) combination population) asking Buglaria usually experiment dichotomous perception emergency‑funding preferences ‘easily’ (instead easily’) responses buffer savings liquid (Morrone (69) Nearly heavy‑tailed bit EU‑SILC; brings uniformly Repeating potentially simulating (Pareto‑fitting) Tentatively overly deserve sizable examined; re‑weighting Nordics emerge identifying Pareto‑fitting dubious altering Simple trimming avoided Alfons Templ capturing ‘people’ distances ‘mildly’ Watershed’ ‘Estimation surveys: Laeken’ Software 1-25 ‘LIS Micro‑Data Accounts Macro‑Data Comparison: Findings wave VIII’ Study Identification Middle Class’ Gornick Inequality: Disparities Class Affluent Stanford 77-99 ‘Top run history’ Literature 3-71 Global Twentieth D’Ambrosio ‘Richness Orderings’ 5-22 EU‑SILC? Complex Designs Error Indicators’ 89-110 Riihela Sullstrom Tuomala ‘Trends Finland’ Incomes: 372-447 over‑sampling Finances’ Reserve Board poor: Construction Line Line’ 1-18 Souza Rich Review’ IRLE 105-14 Labor Berkeley Morrone Scrivens Balestra vulnerability resilience IARIW‑OECD Insecurity Measurement: Causes Implications 22-23 ‘Focus Countries: Was game changer?’ Rao (1992) ‘Some resampling surveys’ 209-217 (1988) harmonic indexes’ 65-76 V‑M Proceedings Helsinki Methodologies Conditions: Issues EU‑SILC‑Conference fat Distribution?’ ECB 1692 Central Frankfurt am returns ownership asset prevailing tenures discusses finalising (70) Net paying (HY030) repayments (HY100) beneficiaries user cost/capital preferred Conceptually flow occupant affordability decisive (71) (user housing): iD d r(V–D) E(DV) where: operational (service charges utilities maintenance repairs insurance); rentals tenants; relief benefits; rate; outstanding debt; / depreciation structures); r funds; dwelling; (E) (D) costs; tenants (expected value) owner’s competitive plan r(V D) purely labelled ‘capital market’ ‘user cost’ equivalences owner‑occupiers owner covariates non‑subsidised opted 14) derivation (HY030G) ‘…shall shall occupied accommodation rented price) minor refurbishment […] Costs heating water electricity Repair fixing Depreciation (consumption capital) superseded 214) Balcazar econometric (semi‑logarithmic hedonic theory) stratification cells) owners typical logarithm physical independent renters solution Heckman correction basically entails two‑step (owner/renter) (external sub‑sample tenant over- granular approximations geographically heterogeneous over‑estimation abnormally cities) choosing (Czech emerging segregation tenants: Further recommend regulating corrections ‘mass imputation’ nearly imputations (Romania) (Germany Denmark) (48 Correct incorrect receive obtaining Owners mortgages subgroup indebtedness take‑up mechanisms inheritances privatisation Europe) deducting payments (HY100G) (either HY030G HY030N) HY030N constrained retain indebted leverage outright rest Swiss Outright Owner Reduced Rent owning costly renting 15) (2010-2012) time‑series breaks 2007-2009 sometimes comparably collectors (HY030N); instructions HY030G/N occupation Luxemburg (Juntto Reijo submit shapes produce vice versa Outlier consume ‘excessively’ apartment Arguably downsize re‑locate assets non‑housing argument moot (‘home’) relations bequest motives) person’s spatially‑fixed illiquid check winsorised top/bottom‑coded trimmed observation (72) reasonably checking eliminate futile attempts multivariate explanatory log interquartile ‘boxplot fences’) double boxplot fence anomalies indicate excessive imminent questioned ‘liquidity’ dealing ‘excessive restriction concretely capping rooms conditional (75th 943 euros) fence) Spanish Upper overcrowded (according definition) overcrowding norm capped hardly distinguishable markedly Capping narrowed vital ‘capping’ kept indicators) added) Taken Disregarding homeownership holding debt unstable documentation; (73) (74) signal mention inexplicable documentation seemingly fluctuations declining be- switched tween (75) less) evenly -8 -9 -1 -3 Values rounding) highlighted orange dark blue March/August (excluding disaggregated (cell‑based imputation) (decrease (‘cash poor’) (‘house -0 -2 Disposable Decreases age‑specific IR 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 151 Light Blue householders 153 At‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or‑social‑exclusion 27-30 154 home‑ownership 6) reflection constraints age‑based visible alarming Clearly re‑rank concluded Unsurprisingly Portugal) span detected weakens intensifies hard discover -4 Darker colours +0 sufficiently supplementary memorandum cash‑based suspicious enhance clarified deductions explicit remedy situations (education Frick applicability called (capital market) reconsidered simplicity thirds residences invariably ordinary least‑squares log‑linear (cell‑based) (number amenities benchmarked (Heckman models) comply reviewed) (HH070) (HY030G (HY100G HY100N); safe reverse Ceriani Olivieri Ranzani ‘Rent Findings’ 7103 Document Target Variables: Grabka Tsakloglou ‘Imputed Countries’ 167-179 Juntto rent’ 155-178 2007-2010 Introduction76 conventional (ECEC services) (care disabled) (77) Extensions (financial) Great Recession 2007-2008 Assessing enjoyed (76) helpful Norwegian audun langorgen@ssb basic expenditures respective universally relax Bhuller Mogstad needs‑adjusted assigns Langørgen micro‑dataset approximation foundation displays justify interpersonal pragmatic crudely Coulter Radner (1997) utilise (78) overestimating Scale justification Jointly consumed quantities food beverages implicitly proposition Jones O’Donnell Zaidi Burchardt disabled differentiate presentation designing estimating Next deriving let (_ 0hk 1hk _Shk hk vector good‑specific ihk ( h scales: (2 rk Accordingly enjoys Equivalent attaining admits decomposition: =_ CI −_ NC (79) +hk /(_ composite expression Ebert Moyes satisfy invariant (relative) satisfies independence: w ++ Note Choosing wl l secures internal transparent municipalities quantity sectors governments’ regulations expert consensus budget constraint planner functional municipal groups’ referring aggregating determining 0rk (80) way: childless male 35-44 allocating relies (2007 earned Six omitted constituted 18-64 Analyses (Smeeding 1993; Paulus demonstrating disregards efficiency imposes ignores services: (ECEC) ECEC out‑of‑pocket comprises chronic disabilities ongoing facilitate splitting Instead Oliveira Martins utilised Education enables pre‑primary product limitation reimbursed Due decisions subpopulations becoming ill regimes receiver Either ex Enrolment (primary secondary) enrolment pupil participants acquiring participate actively age‑group fulfilled Older acquire (81) participates schooling children’s Several rooted inter‑temporal tackled rigid equals allocate multiplied attended registered Probability (1993) (82) citizen Multiplication demographics premium unaffected (83) 111-112 simplification Heterogeneous classify 0-17 18- 25-34 45-54 55-64 65-74 classification infants pre‑education groups: 1-2 attending (males females) outlined γ-parameters computational practicability prevent termed moreover 166 linear (OLS) j hj n +_ (included nhj _h ˆ ˆj (j=0 … 8) females males modest (84) Economies equation (85) impose (single) (86) re- (14 genders) exact genders striction (87) combinations R2-adjusted goodness EU‑scale Including long‑term‑care scholars owes Variable Long‑term Constant 0-3 (below (above R2 999 old (additively) unity Equivalence (SNA) sake convincing HY020 (88) subtracted imput- (disposable Euros) * HX010 (Exchange rate) HY025 (Inflation factor) ed (89) favoured Shorrocks members) ethical principles biases inference inversely below‑market free‑of‑rent counterbalance ten equalising produces ambiguous she (this extended) exposed Elderly be8 ‘severe’) expresses book) ‘objective’ columns (very) imperfectly besides non‑negligible suffers ‘yes‑yes‑yes’) suffers: (whatever seventh ‘no‑no‑yes’) constitutes savings/ things ample spend durables holidays) disentangling (disposable) (‘yes‑yes‑no’) (fifth ‘yes‑no‑no’) non‑overlap disappears ‘disposable deprived’ fifth columns) attains ‘non‑deprivation’ (partly) borderline) confirms non‑existent fourth ‘no‑yes‑yes’ ‘no‑yes‑no’) Incidence Yes services; profile exhibited prove biased subtracting jus8 tified (Gini) well‑documented Public differ’ 9-10 549-562 Benefits Services: Local Spending Norway’ 61-83 Basic Scales In‑Kind Mimeo Cowell ‘Differences Distributions’ Bulletin 77-123 Differ: Axiomatic Approach’ Economica 233-244 ‘Equivalence Reconsidered’ 319-343 Ageing Report: budgetary projections (2008-2060)’ Economy 2/2009 CEPS/Instead 2011-04 Esch‑sur‑Alzette Re‑Examination Nations: Story’ Management 897-919 Child‑Specific Disability’ 273-289 Distributive Publicly Provided Services’ Divided Stand: Why 309-341 la Maisonneuve Bjornerud Projections Long‑Term Care Expenditures http://ssrn com/ abstract=2005171 174 243-266 ‘Noncash Well‑Being’ ‘Inequality Evaluation 193-218 Saunders Coder Fritzell Hagenaars Hauser Impacts Seven Noncash Subsidies Housing’ 229-256 Verbist Vaalavuo Resources: New Methods’ Equalization Extra Disability 89-114 Conventional (alternatively named ‘equivalised income’) assumptions: jointly; enhanced (91) (90) draft INSEE bear sophie ponthieux@insee fr Technically ‘modified‑OECD scale’ addressing exploration asks above: ‘What budget?’ (question PA010) (whether ‘full pooling’ (Ponthieux 22) inappropriate Couple‑households traditional division spouses pooling; contrary dual‑earner unmarried ‘patchwork’ Bonke Uldall‑Poulsen Bur9 goyne Morison 1997; 2012; Hamplova Le Bourdais Heimdal Houseknecht Heikel Kenney Laporte Schellenberg Lyngstad Vogler Yodanis Lauer serious: marriage cohabitation divorces recomposed think (tentative) new: Young (1952 305) deplored warned ‘To venture (1991) underlining decades conventionally ‘unitary’ behaviour behave entity rational maximising utility ‘as if’ needed: converge decision unit; members’ ignored bypassed discernible ‘black box’ criticised (Chiappori unsatisfactory emblematic Lundberg 1997) 1980s Donni Chiappori non‑unitary decision‑makers) Statisticians aware conceal inequalities preferable debatable knowing pooling/ seeking (Borooah McKee Davies Joshi Phipps Burton 1995; Findlay Wright 1996; (Sutherland autonomy (Meulders O’Dorchai ‘unequal’ sharing: Meulders minimal non‑labour Borooah resorts whatever examined: women’s dramatically sinks household‑level fails (92) understate reviewed challenged ‘pooled’ ‘separate’ incomes; ‘observed’ PA010 arrangement departure chapter) versa); restrictive separate) unobserved survey: exclusively him/herself (also) ‘common’ ‘equivalised’ cohabitant decision‑makers (aged active) (older 24) Obviously collection: (93) partner’s negative) ‘targeted couples’ (94) ‘husband’ ‘wife’ regardless her/himself couples) 623) 916) 953) 965) 050) 072) 079) 233) 342) 432) 772) 077) 147) 313) 385) 709) (4 165) 348) 133) 859) 281) proposed: my (95) men/women And pool/keep his/ distinguished: (column modality ‘no contributed Men Women >50 <50 ‘n Population: arithmetic %; declare g) configurations label ‘partial behaviours (‘other cases’)) couple’s Couple’s (**) keep: (**): Partial none(*) b f a+e b+d+f c+g pooling: her/his wife vs %); (96) ‘suspect’; deviation simple: 181 (97) equal; shift (Yeq) household: Yeq Neq (earnings car appliances on) member; subscripts W husband write: YeqW YeqH YeqK liv- fuel bills separately) implicit counterbalanced ‘richer’ ‘poorer’ detailing (YW YH) (YC) security (T): YW YH YC Then re‑write ‘separate incomes’ (noted yW yH) separate): yH (YW– yW) (YH– (Yeq‑mod) Yeq‑mod ‘amount’ Dealing adaptations dealt with: taxes; (unemployment (YC include: (incomes interests alimonies) (family parental (depending marital pre‑marital receives/ pays alimony from/to ex‑partner; women; investments married pooled) impute wives’ Wives Husbands 183 imputing sharing) solutions simplistic) (98) work‑related YC) female female/male neglects Figari usable (variable HY110) assign entailed ‘translated’ (corresponding respectively) modalities half) mid‑interval ‘more half’ ‘less ‘separation’ (pa10) (0 Sequence (99) Personal (Yneti) ti H) tW tH Yneti Yi ti) Separate (yi) pa10i yi pa10W pa10H SAS) (using scale): [(YnetW (YnetH YnetC] (necessarily (100): yeq‑modW yeq‑modH yeq‑mod ‘intra‑household’ level; (targeted) husbands’ (101) (100) automatically problematic wife’s (husband’s) (his) (even cases) (it men) partner: intra‑couple differentials (about separate; partly) wives husbands partners) illustrative Modi_ed ordered (women standing (102) men’s approach) distorted barely significant) (standard modified) small; completely concealed (represented line) (103) (again (Malta deviating inter‑individual general) (full pensions) under‑estimating policies? (families fiscal units) conditioned reinforce imbalance Bennett individual‑based unmeasured individual‑level inheritance conceptualisation black box Woolley Marshall 429) wrote solves resource it’ blatant availability: sharing; conversely entail fair appeal ‘pooling’ solve pool’: command autonomy? wonder Caution crux paradigm pointed interdependence Actually conflates framework: conceals token imperfections discourage non‑means‑tested replacement benefits’ 2011-09 De Henau Himmelweit Sung ‘Financial togetherness Scott Gendered lives: 97-122 ‘Why Denmark’ 113-128 ‘Modeling transfers: UK’ Creedy (ed Taxation Burgoyne ‘Money remarriage: separate’ 363-395 ‘Collective labor supply welfare’ Political 437-467 ‘Sex 301-340 ‘Non‑unitary Models Behavior: Literature’ IZA 4603 3/2012 Immervoll Levy ‘Inequalities Role Benefits’ 344-366 ‘Gender Intra‑Household Resources’ 335-351 Strengths ‘Incorporating research’ 56-66 ‘One Pot Strategies? Pooling Married Unmarried Perspective’ 355-385 Poortman A‑R cohabiting couples: perspective’ 1-4 ‘Cohabiting organization: Approaches Marriage 525-538 purse: Allocative Society 354-381 within‑household distribution: action’ 457-483 management Canada’ Analytical Branch Pollak Wales ‘Do resources? Benefit’ Human Resources 463-480 Noack Tufte ‘Pooling 624-635 ‘Revisiting individualisation’ ULB‑Dulbea 10-03 ‘Sharing families: Canadian 177-204 learn module’ ‘La mise en commun des revenus dans les Insee Premiere 1409 ‘Women Redistribution Income’ Fiscal 1-22 Brockmann Wiggins ‘Intimate century’ British 455-482 Within Household’ 415-432 ‘Managing marriage: multilevel breadwinner role’ 1307-1325 (1952) ‘Distribution Family’ 305-321 (104) (105) endorsed urgent enlargements data‑set advice Karel den Bosch innovation (imPRoVe)’ FP7-funded see: confronted lacks: expenses; holiday home; arrears hire purchase instalments); meal meat chicken fish vegetarian day; warm; washing machine (enforced lack) (106); colour TV lack); car/van grown Chap- (106) Enforced possess/ it; (person) 194 ters ‘severe’ built particular: Whelan (2011)) criticisms weak (107) 0+; (2016)); 1-15; aspects: sub‑groups perceive ‘acceptable’ ‘Suitability’ ‘face validity’ exhibits problems) Alpha statistic Classical willingness Neubourg Gabos Watson proposals (CTT) (Nunally 1978) (IRT) Cappellari ‘2’ reality ‘1’ indicator’s incapacity to: satisfactorily criteria; enforced (108) within-household gender- age-sensitive Najera grant depth articles ‘high’ ‘latent’ ‘satisfactory’ science to): worn‑out clothes ones; fitting shoes pair all‑weather shoes); him/herself; leisure activities; friends/family drink/ lack): furniture; computer connection acceptability (9-item) (much) (severe (common nine; hereafter ‘EU MD’) 9; SMD’) ‘MD 5+’ 7+’ closeness easier smoother prominence (expressed pre‑requisite performances interventions? ‘socioeconomically’ statistically) significant? (Slovenia France) kingdom average) SMD) 7+) seAmending verely States: intervals) -14 -12 -10 -6 MD5+ MD7+ SMD); slight 7+)) Belgium) anything Around (13 1/ 1+4 6)) 'only' ‘Both’ ‘only’) results: list) (89 deprived: four) ‘at 13’ Those Additional negligible: ‘added’ (those Telephone Colour shoes* Washing Meat fish** Computer internet* clothes* Inadequate warmth** Car** Arrears** Drink/meal* Pocket* Leisure* Replace worn-out furniture* Unexpected expenses** Holidays** (5+) Items star stars ‘dropped’ ‘kept’ (2010)) presence bad birth multinomial ‘being MD’ exponentiated risks: ‘reference’ case: (one modelled ‘both’ controlled (having alone) Exponentiated None 45*** 44*** One‑person 53*** 49*** Log 61*** 84*** 71*** Primary 21** 46*** 43*** 04 50*** 09*** 09 64*** Born non‑EU 35*** 56*** Bad 47*** 19** 655 pseudo R² Ll -268 chi2 Unweighted (relative ratios); *** p<0 01; ** 05; variable: maximal attained categories: ‘limitations’ ‘strong limitations’ daily 18-59 only’ (relatively migrant manages ‘none’ category) ‘adds’ ‘basic’ ‘social’ items; ‘drops’ deprived; ‘keeps’ (especially migrants educated interact colAmending lected gentlemen’s (109) ‘Summarizing Micklewright Re‑examined 166-184 Bradshaw Chzhen Martorano Menchini ‘Child Innocenti 2012/02 ‘Characterising 133-153 Ozdemir ‘Material children’ Situation Observatory 7/2011 EU‑SILC?’ Europe? Euro‑barometer data’ IRISS 2009-19 Differdange Fahmy Nandy (2016) ‘Improving level’ 219-333 Inclusion: Nunally (1978) Psychometric (2nd McGraw‑Hill Maitre Understanding Childhood (ESRI) Dublin ‘Identifying Deprivation: Well Exclusion Perform?’ 251-272 investing February ‘Investing breaking disadvantage’ Presidencies Task‑Force Well‑Being spelled Tarki Applica Well‑being Belgian Presidency action: rights Subsequently Hungarian (110) ESRC Grant RES-060-25-0052 Eldin Viliami Fifita Shailen (Bristol University) anne‑catherine track (Tarki ‘Tackling promoting well‑being’ contributing aforementioned ‘reinforce Children’s needs) Detailed answering questionnaire’ respondent’) protocol Ideally girls boys teenagers MD: second‑hand) lack; fresh vegetables meals outdoor equipment indoor games homework; consult dentist (‘optional’ item); practitioner (gp) (optional); (sports youth organisations celebrations occasions invite friends round eat school trips neighbourhood safely; (optional) Britain (Gordon Pantazis gathered bracket) brothers/sisters inconsistencies coded flagged ‘not applicable’ (because erroneously ‘children’ 1-15 individually questionnaire) (school homework) optional ‘holiday item’ (111) motivated 2003) considerations) removed limiting worse (Marsh 2000) view: warmth near accident illness remote Qualitative strain try protect stress feelings guilt (Ridge Observatoire l’Enfance Jeunesse l’Aide jeunesse Sonecom inspired Townsend’s 1950s 1960s succinctly 1979: objectively diet customary approved commanded customs (Townsend 1979 31) facilitates sub‑set ensured items: State) ‘suitability’ amongst wanting sociological 1979) Perry ‘importance’ ‘wanting’ encompasses it) (food shoes) celebration index/indicator latent running binary (dependent variable) (112) (great) non‑statistically rejected non‑valid (Sweden usefully ‘latent’) one) levels) unreliable Cronbach Townsend (1979) Mack Lansley (1985) Latent Trait trait biology happiness psychological pass someone ‘0’ checked ANOVA (on (clothes Similarly additive candidates retained ‘household’ furniture arrears; Alphas √ Fresh Suitable Outdoor Indoor Place homework GP Leisure (Suitability) Celebrations Holiday from: Lack Shortage Darkness Noise Pollution Crime Leaky roof damp (>40 Overcrowding Litter lying Vandalism afford: transport Postal/banking ‘invalid’ logic reliability/ violate (suitability (Classical Theory) (Item additivity) √=successful heat map (40 items) (20 6+ vertically case) (1-15) Children: Household: Car _sh Invite Worn-out Arrears definition; hugely 3-7 Slovenia) (113) 1-15) point) (Latvia hide (compared widespread non‑poor ‘absolute’ (much Austria; Non-poor Poor (Quasi-)jobless Very TOTAL Child‑specific (CH‑MD) Whole oneself Drink/meal identical: CH‑MD: column); column) 5+)) CH-MD holidays Chilrdren Computer/Internet Warmth Furniture (lack ‘CH‑MD Sweden); declares (applied Contrarily +4 +11 careful confident essence indexes focusing ‘Human Part Process’ Indian 293-320 2013/112/ Module ESTAT F3/ AR D(2011) Adelman Ashworth Levitas Middleton Patsios Payne Williams Joseph Rowntree Foundation Pemberton Developing Marsh Heslop ‘Housing health: Analysis’ 411-428 ‘Recherche qualitative participative sur le vecu enfants vivant pauvrete trente ans Communaute francaise’ OEJAJ SONECOM 224 necessities life’ 89-122 mismatch Ministry Zealand Ridge Exclusion: Child’s childhood: low‑income 73-84 Official Communities advisory tackling eu/social/BlobServlet?docId= 7849&langId=en DG Equal Better Secretariat Administration Justice Budapest Penguin Books Harmondsworth ESRI ‘counting’ 1970s gaining momentum 1979; Erikson reviews) 2002; 2010a therein) Others interrelationships explicitly experimental (114) Initiative (OPHI Oxford) George OPHI Universidad del Desarrollo (Chile) patient James Bertrand Brian Nicholas Ruiz insightful conversations Saite Lu Garima Sahai Euijin Jung Email: sabina alkire@qeh ox mapablaza@udd cl counting‑based dual‑cut‑off (Alkire 2011a) ordinal categorical cardinal ratio‑scale Unlike traditionally Alkire‑Foster Incorporating (after identification) creates incentives near‑poor (MPI) released UNDP’s Reports Santos UNDP MPIs Colombia Chile Mexico Philippines Bhutan Pakistan Armenia AF ’s doing indices: indicator‑specific legitimate proceeds situates multi‑dimensionally (H) (A) censored (115) (Sen Censored entrance 1968 (Allardt Uusitalo 1972 Johannsson 1973); Jacques Delors’ 1971 Les indicateurs sociaux Ch Ludz’s Materialien zum Bericht zur Lage der Nation (1971) validate (Nolan 1996 Layte 2001; durable adopted: people) target: exclusion’ enlarge themat12 ic (Bradshaw Adamson Irish 11-item ‘consistent (combining poverty); analysis; approximation; facilities Coromaldi Zoli clarify nonlinear NLPCA Naturally resulted (Verbist Lefebure Jana gave (Whelan (Chakravarty Bossert Atkinson’s drew accomplished M∝ Greer Thorbecke (rows) well-being (columns) matrix n) achievements zj (zj) (g0) compiles (wj) (ci) suffered ci multidimensionally (116) g0(k) replaces depri- Rd × {0 1} _: maps i’s y ∈ ; _( z) vations zeros dimensional equivalently (ci(k)) M0— MPI signify (multidimensional) q/n q (A= (k)/q) (117) tracking Yalonetzky (comparable (missing low) axioms specifically: replication invariance symmetry monotonicity non‑triviality normalisation decomposability ordinality re‑arrangement (‘AROP’ definitions)) proxies functionings Particular self‑assessments evaluations noise violence vibrations capabilities anticipated Rather justifying (population‑weighted) (118) (2006-2010) (2006-2007) Additionally irregularities PE040 (Highest ISCED attained) (119) parenthesis (2007-2008) unmet Medical corroborated rigorous unavailable (PB060) dataset: non‑deprived crime pollution proceeding normatively overlooks foster) generates ‘cut‑off’ (120) EU‑context (individual) 2014a) likewise descriptions 2002) Maquet considerations: aggregation Assumptions 2020-related Terminologically organising govern organise inform discussions notes completed (Guio (vii) (viii) (ix) part‑time renders match perceptual inherent personality adaptive asymmetries evolve lighter ease Dimension Respondent if: (1/6) He/she hhd 16-59 achievements: holiday; equivalent; use; owns TV; machine; Environment (1/24) street grime environmental vandalism leaking walls rot floor Chronic Illness Morbidity Unmet medical Hhd=household 07 08 Graph geographic (level poverty) 02 merely thereof worth mentioning redundancy example: morbidity 1a Nations’ (121) (respectively) 1b display plausible periods: http://millenniumindicators un org/unsd/methods/m49/ m49regin htm Asia; 2006-2009 After insignificant 1a) faster parsimonious onwards 2010-2012 ups downs 2006-2008 subsequently results) coheres popular understandings ‘multidimensional’ (122) 048 041 (2010-2011) increments (2011-2012) simultaneous satisfied contrasts (M0) sixteen (more) Patterns linearised std brackets) 0484 0443 0418 0413 0419 0424 0429 0012) 0011) 0013) Intensity 0006) 0005) (A)) x‑axis y‑axis circle 044 042 047 083 089 029 019 018 016 013 032 034 033 037 045 052 054 055 073 071 067 066 068 085 096 043 038 035 081 069 062 059 056 053 063 072 061 079 077 075 057 064 028 027 049 023 024 021 015 017 097 076 031 026 014 025 006 007 01 011 012 Normally France’s Spain’s strikingly declines exceptions) non‑Europe double‑burden depicted triennium decompositions (95 confidence) increment extremes vie relevance implication pointing 2014b) incomparabilities non‑economic cohere league world’s Card Center ‘Multidimensional 36a 36b (2014a) 36c Roche Vaz Dynamics: 41a ‘Dimensions development’ 181-205 ‘Counting measurement’ 7-8 476-487 (2011a) ‘Understandings misunderstandings 289-314 ‘Evaluating Dimensional Contributions Poverty’ Acute World: Robustness Index’ 251-274 ‘Acute Seth Ballon Allardt (1972) Scandinavian societies’ A7 9-27 Lives deprivation: Contrasting approaches’ 51-65 (2010a) Analysing Discrete Data’ 29-43 25-49 Perrig‑Chiello Changing Interdisciplinary Science 29-35 supranational entities: re‑examined 377-398 239 ‘Deriving Italy’ 37-54 Delors ‘Les sociaux’ Futuribles ‘Descriptions Nussbaum Clarendon update Children’ indicators’ CSB 1009 Herman Deleeck Antwerp 21/05 Eurobarometer data? matter?’ Nad’a Statistics’ MENDELU Business 19/2012 Mendel Brno Faculty Johansson (1973) presentation’ Acta Sociologica 211-219 (2001) ‘Reassessing 239-261 Ludz Bundestagsdrucksache VI/1690 Bonn ‘Using Non‑Monetary Analyse Lessons 305-325 Constructing Composite User Guide 240 Australia 559-584 Allen Lane Non‑cash Advantages Concept Belgium’ 0801 ‘Understanding Consistent Ireland’ 211-234 Europeanisation Groups?’ RB2009/3/2 183-197 initiatives yardstick sole (124) Ultimately wants determinant Brewer O’Dea Noll review) ground downturns (Brewer (123) (ONS) ONS hie@ons gsi gov discussion) accumulated informally formally Friedman’s ‘permanent hypothesis’ expectations (Cutler Katz 1991) Jorgenson Slesnick 1987 Meyer Sullivan under‑reported (Sabelhaus diary imperfect purchased gifts supplemented Consumption (HBS) (125) Matched predominantly (126) synthetic) fusing sampled recipient Z reconcile used: Matching Expenditure (EU-SILC) Donor hotdeck (non‑parametric) parametric Webber (Serafino correspondence (15 divergences focussed lie (Austria) (Finland): UDB; Eurostat/ONS Estimate 592 684 807 596 German iteration ‘pp’ ‘percentage point’ classed prominent higher: (almost (43 (46 (49 (55 (35 (38 (58 negligible Deprived 246 ‘Deprived’ ‘materially Materially Non-income Non-expenditure yellow bar studied degrees Heating Mortgage Protein Phone Damp bath toilet Dark Noisy house excessively noisy bathing flushing weaker above; expenditure‑poor; instances afflicted income- (127) accommodation; eldest unsurprisingly heads board retired Expenditure‑poor composition; (without (42 (17 (30 expenditure-poor non-expenditure (12 inactive Employed Unemployed Retired repartition (128) standards; self‑employed irregular explanations maintaining only) apparently expectation soon finite indefinitely occur guaranteed varied; ‘zero hours’ contracts; employer worker accept offered day‑to‑day be13 entirety (quasi-)joblessness; precluding routine 6-yearly consumption: 2012-05 (ISER) Cutler ‘Macroeconomic disadvantaged’ Activity 1-74 Review: (1987) ‘Aggregate behavior scales’ 219-232 ‘Further 52-87 H‑H GESIS Leibniz Mannheim gesis org/fileadmin/upload/institut/ wiss_arbeitsbereiche/soz_indikatoren/Publikationen/ Household‑Expenditures‑Research‑Report Sabelhaus Johnson Ash Swanson Garner Greenlees Henderseon ‘Is income?’ sponsored NBER Microdata http://conference nber org/confer/2011/CRIWf11/CRIWf11prg Statisical edition) Expend Non‑expend Male Female Age 16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66-75 76+ Marital Never Widowed Divorced (129) 1990s discourse emphasis ‘unemployment toward ‘employment probably ‘White competitiveness employment’ ‘raise unemployment’ (Commission 1993 129) (Goetschy 20- Directorate D’Amuri Giuseppe Ferrero Paccagnella Roberta Zizza andrea brandolini@bancaditalia Focusing searching intuitively appealing broadening policies: under‑utilisation potential; counteracting ageing sustainability systems; fostering 4-5) fighting creating (minimal) push (Brandolini (ILO) nuanced employ14 ment differentiating arrangements? ‘full‑time adjusts overtime hired somebody fixed‑term alternate spells definitions) qualify pure supplementing conveyed (normalised glimpse 2001 fail 403) Something judgement intrinsic straightforwardly intensity‑adjusted puzzling association (de Beer Graaf‑Zijl Vleminckx Marx Diris (EU‑LFS) ER ILO Ei i=1 otherwise: ‘extensive’ ‘intensive’ vein 263 ωi WER (paid) arbitrary inconsequential rarely force (measured terms: ⎟⎠ ⎞ ⎜⎝ ⎛ ⎛⎟ ⎠ ⎞⎜⎝ _ ⎛ m hi wi μi mi υi (=30/7) θi norms 2007-2011 (=12×4 3×40) extrapolate Lacking days (unfortunately) ⎛= exceed homogenous hi: doubles signalling workload continuous hours) 25th 75th ascending 2007-2011; ´ overlapping JHR 1-hour‑per‑week Gregg Wadsworth Scutella household; intensity) underlies Kf ωf averaging members: sub‑index work‑intensity‑adjusted HWER population: sub‑group sub‑indicator files 2004-2007 pl070 work) pl072 ‘workable’ pl080 pl085 pl087 pl090 2008-2010 pl073 pl076 value(s) pl060 (usual job) pl100 jobs) exacerbate misalignment timing prefer trying forced positions pb040 rb050 fragmentation correlates distributive (data absent extensive‑margin occupational declared respondents: i) pl030 pl031 2009-10 2011); ii) underestimate overstate Weekly extra demand slackness Besides vis‑a‑vis EU‑LFS) (considerably 2a 1-month‑in‑the‑year (self‑reported condition) figure; 2b 3): counter‑intuitively understated 2c Jobless (calculated status) 2d EU-LFS Corr =0 89; Spearman coeff 57; 86; 63; HULU Working‑age 15-64 16-64 EU‑LFS; 45-degree locus Pearson’s 8-0 cyclical (last matter kernel density (solid lines) bimodal spike non‑or standard‑time time; intensities mass polarised (dashed trimodal virtue spikes WER; Henceforth Few odd 2004) 16-18 1st 8th 2nd 13th 5th 20th (kernel densities) 16-64; equations text list: 10th 18th 7th reshuffling differences: (unweighted) unaltered divergent 2008-2009 reaches slows stemming downturn facilitated work‑sharing 1–JHR 25; axes else Republic: 68-69 North (2011 439) 2004-2008 ‘rising benefited workless marginally’ increased’ plot definition)) weakly sheds supplied enrich informational 1-month‑inthe‑year ‘Behind (head count) Royal paradox state: era’ 432-449 COM(93) Supplement 6/93 COM(1998) 572 SILC variables: panacea: 375-388 413-431 work‑poverty segmentation Independent Experts Goetschy Strategy: Genesis Industrial Relations 117-137 ‘More households?’ Hills inequalities: 181-207 ‘Two work’ 857-875 ‘Reconciling Australia’ 139-167 ‘Can Regression‑based target’ 472-486 ‘Assessing in‑work risk’ 307-328 ‘Mapping At‑Risk‑of‑Poverty Spending’ Reconciling Reduction: Successful States? 1-59 ‘Disappointing trends: blame?’ 450-471 EU‑LFS: Correlation 276Table over) interview; Work‑intensity‑weighted 1-JHR 200420052006200720082009 Coefficient work‑intensity‑weighted recipe age? conversion (130) affiliated (UvA); (CSB) Bea precious vandenbroucke@uva nl decompose wit 2004-2011) trajectory (131) configuration (2008 ‘polarisation index’ ‘random jobs’ avoidable suboptimal polarisation) (skewness the) integrates employment; (non‑jobless) technique uncovers convergence disparity forces feminisation tertiary disperse (mathematical) timespan (International Organisation) introducing upward evolutions ‘joblessness’ invalidity inactivity ‘(quasi-)jobless fine‑grained elaboration cut (rate)’ (132) 20-59 ‘jobless’ jobless’) Continental (133)) (134) (Portugal (133) LFS Observations slower pace start) bigger (United -20 -15 -5 ind hh 1995-2008 Yellow bars green squares outsider big explainable ‘mathematical’ (households employment) consisted spectacular mathematical corollary Expected ‘full households’ ‘mixed non‑working ‘expected’ 2-adult ‘polarisation’ exceptional grows causing integrate concept; op cit counterfactual Polarisation fewer) no‑one Consequentially ‘predicted size: =jl jl emphasise ideal ‘positive polarisation’ ‘Matthew effect’ (say employed) jobless) ‘Negative appreciated solidarity scarce ‘negative ‘randomly serve diagonal encounter saliently theories non‑work (Danziger 1996) (Cullen Gruber became grew polarisation? diverges ‘within‑household ‘between‑household assertions rates’ decom- Prediceted EU-11 posed between‑household shift‑share 2008): (iii)+ _n [0 5_ ] 5n 5( 5__ )[0 πk jlk ‘predicted’ jle exert pressure 1995- which: (unconditional) Δ 5); 4); stems (small) notwithstanding undergoing Restriction hit strongest Cyprus) diminishing Combinations beta‑convergence catch‑up process) sigma‑convergence (135) diminished characterising steep (hereafter EU-11) Duyver Beta‑convergence 1995-2012; unlike Omission 50; P(1995) P(2000) P(2008) P(2012) restricts beta (albeit robustly) stretches (136) Members: eliminating 76) movement evident: 88) 26) 72); era dictated accelerated deceleration standstill uniform entered societal ‘conditional counterfactuals’ ‘unconditional percentage) unconditional Applying attainment surprisingly prima facie post‑secondary Classification (ISCED) 5-6) increases); (ISCED 0-2) mildly ‘increased homogamy’ (increased homogamy sees formed correlate (risk) post‑transfer negatively pre- emerges (causing (137) Elimination counterintuitive (138) mitigated ‘non‑jobless’ Higher segment encloses ‘full‑employment’ improves non‑jobless Be- contradicts (2001 59-61) Dickens Ellwood Nickell OECD’s USA) Correlations 05-12 post‑transfers) causality significance; (individual other) extent) inferred joblessness) disentangle ‘upward convergence’ (139) Formally (jl) (njl) Labelling njl jl) pov pjl pnjl pjlit pnjlit − (survey unintended balances 292 _pov i1 i0 5jl subcomponents contributory factors: mechanical calculates decomposable informing subcomponent intrinsically deliberate stricter conditionality Diverging invalidate caveat equation: _pnjl _pjl (pjl (_jl +_p pursue (also circumspection connecting retrospective changes) Explained non-jobless at-risk-of-poverty wiped translating continental (limited) small) (some) drive (140) SOEP Krell 294 corded Decreasing (notably Latvia) (helped 20-to-59 cohort eroded growth‑based (Poland verify hypotheses explaining disparate challenging eroding exist figures) 2008- sense) (***) (although bootstrapping defensible proves joblessness’ intertemporal perspective) individual/household Until familial Gains additionally dependency Experience ‘positive’ diminish upswing attribute boom successes subgroups) historically Germany) inegalitarian 2005-2012) (successful activation) generosity) struggle intra‑family dominant benefits) simultaneously refuel reconnect complementarity Cullen crowd spousal supply?’ 546-572 Danziger discrimination’ Behavior Organization 57-66 EU15 ‘Polarisation revisited: case’ CES KULeuven Leuven ‘Whither US?: Blundell Freeman Seeking Premier League Joblessness Polarization Markets Germany: SOEP’ Multidisciplinary DIW Berlin Society: (Statistics Society) worklessness Britain’ C1-C25 Outlook antidote poverty?’ Tackling Crisis Growth Fighting ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or- social-exclusion’ ‘(quasi-)jobless’ rationale poverty/social multifaceted novelty ‘QJ‑ness’) (141) Carine Burricand Marie‑Emilie Clerc (many) queries patience no) Precisely 18-24) work‑time months’ household’ equivalent: ‘For time‑equivalent interview’ (142) prevention/ 155) website: http://epp eu/statistics_explained/index php/Material_deprivation_and_low_work_intensity_statistics manifested volume); insecurity detrimental Pedersen puts inclusion’ 105) (143) Copeland Daly (2012 ‘another elastic “problems”’ character compromise ‘activation’ positions: favour advocating favouring eu/europe2020/europe-2020- in‑a‑nutshell/targets/index_en usefulness confusion recurring criticism compose recognising dependence warn ‘may anti‑poverty distract need’ (Graaf‑Zijl 35) twofold: years; advocate arguing mixes (year coun16 tries) N) loose instability assesses (144) conceptually inconsistent: 60+ households? assessed) civil United‑Kingdom Counting 1); multi‑generational A) one‑adult (145) (Denmark); single‑parent (Greece) Kingdom); (Denmark) (Bulgaria) two‑adult pronounced 0-59; over‑representation Dependent 0-59) (particularly adult’s under‑representation (146) underlined (147)) (basi- (147) mixing (N-1 fragile Beside drawbacks cally constituents ‘Q’ ‘J’ 60) small: Concentration kids ‘Kid’ brevity potential) Months Full-time Part-time ‘unused’ unemployment: worked) statuses: housework/care 60); Austria) technically mismatches ‘false’ over‑estimating intensity; Unemployment House/care Retirement statuses house/care unidentified evidence: retire counter ‘active ageing’ workable long‑lasting transitory escape compilation N-3 computing balanced ‘QJ account: Thirdly value: Duration collection) (within QJ‑ness) enduring not‑QJ (Lithuania) (Italy) ‘definitive’ re‑enter (here (QJ ‘long lasting’ chance exit; counter‑intuitive Aged exits) definitive composition) herself ageing: ‘QJ‑ness’ 60th birthday; (Latvia) Republic) (SMD); ARP ‘AROP SMD’ overestimation (‘line thickness’); ‘neither/nor’ fragility implementation; <=median >median ‘Line thickness’ one‑third ‘line occurred AROPE? intersection ‘QJ‑only’ (148) QJ‑only (since (149); 10) countries/years United‑Kingdom) (149) Gasior perspectives: remarkable overrepresentation one‑parent level); 2009/2008 2010/2009 2011/2010 2012/2011 ‘permanent’ lasting occurrences contradiction (students SMD; 313 uncovered intensity: underestimated consistency: 59-year matters; interpretable should/could needing component; interpretability sorts meets ‘Principles construction’ (150) unclear alternatives definition/ Substantial directions: Alternative (improved potential): pushing upwards ‘main ‘in‑work’ analogy ‘student’ 18-24 ‘retired’ strategy): (if worked): ‘Methodology online: social/main jsp?catId=756 gain SMD): (151) (alternative 2012/ ew 716 692 547 355 666 777 626 084 601 885 773 Variant A: 663 824 B: 633 894 C: implementation: +18 +21 +14 unchanged: +7 +6 highlighting ‘Varieties reduction: Inserting 2020’ 273-287 combating 143-161 statistics’ strategy’ GINI AIAS Workless 139167 ‘Jobless NESC 2005-2009)’ Target: 2009’ Geary 2012/13 UCD Holstein Kohler ‘Parents’ predictor well‑being: 1984 431-436 indicator’ ImPRovE 13/09 doubt (EA) 51) temporally sectorally demographically [global crisis] [sovereign brunt exclusively) economies’ Developments halt adverse peripheral later’ (Bontout 232) bulk academically oriented delves (152) Magnani alfonso rosolia@bancaditalia Bachmann Casado Jauer Beyer Smets migrations 2014a Less sluggish rigidities staggered negotiations compositional 2014b team Banks ‘… phase crisis; seemed responsive [when] reforms restraint consolidation’ muted average: offsetting novel supplements occurring ‘prices’ ‘quantities’ perceptible calling qualification rigidity cyclicality Abraham Haltiwanger Verdugo job‑movers immobile workers’ devaluations recovering ‘country sectoral skill Abandoning shaping comprising divide sovereign 2011-2012: ‘periphery’ (Ireland ‘core’ sketch base earnings: earnings; source; employee’s payment (holiday piece‑rate tips gratuities bonuses premia locations) reimbursements severance strike spite agencies Torrini Dreger (cash) issue) gauge dividing (PY010G) (PL070 PL073 PL075 jobs; PL072 PL074 PL076 weeks) wrong (PY050G_F country‑year‑sex (PL060) (PL030 PL031 self‑employment) dropping (PB040) area‑wide multiplying worked: segments (logarithm of) 4-5 controls admittedly Earnings transform (HICP) bundle PPP (PPP‑HFC) (PPP‑GDP) Greek differences; (relatively) em17 ployees hourly engendering slow citations dynamics: (-11 (-1 respectively); declined (-4 broke lights Core Periphery −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 prc_ppp_ind −30 compensations Per t_nama 20-69 self‑employment; Variations qualitatively aligned rough Employees (thousands) 619 (millions) 646 861 793 (euros) 532 545 weights) 741 972 942 751 766 785 694 UDBs 1/12 deflating 8-9 worrisomely sharper viewpoint extant importantly scrutiny PPP‑adjusted price‑level (EUR) 765 804 951 (PPS PPP‑GDP) 709 PPP‑HFC) 698 086 981 988 924 892 357 546 3rd 611 629 775 822 4th 845 876 060 618 583 812 6th 695 743 003 794 843 087 677 725 685 9th 555 PPP‑HFC PPP‑GDM prices; equalled upwards: intensely earners across‑the‑board top) 2011-2007 EA‑wide within‑country‑group schedules Intuitively fictitious DiNardo Fortin Lemieux Biewen Bover F(w | attributes ft (w) dF (w (w| t)dF schedule t0 t1 325 )dF t1) Counterfactuals sub‑vectors xa xb is: counterfactuals densities suitably observable x: citizenship denote interaction pit QGct i∈G QGt i∈c Qt= ipit (normalised) ⎟ Gt Gct Q guides schemes: (CF1) Gc iCF (CF2) ⎜ ⎝ scheme CF1 preserves (G imposing effect; CF2 denoting d‑th _d Fj (_d j=(2007 CF2) that: _T _W CF _X 2011− _G abuse notation Δh points; latter; groups; natives EA? schedules? ΔT (orange ΔW (dark Sex 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 Educational Compulsory Citizenship Native Foreign‑born rounding summation figures; ΔX (light sustained 3-4 consequent reallocation ΔG red masked −4 −3 −2 −1 Observed Wage (excl geo) (observed) cess (shortfall over‑represented (under‑represented) tenth accentuated periphery‑core divide: shifted amplified fifths silent ei- 2007−2011 vanish (blue) (green) ther periphery: traceable untouched shuts professional forth Firpo Recentered Influence quantify assumptions) dummies cit- izenship quadratic dummy neglecting membership Absent non‑negative profile‑specific Excluding microeconomic functioning bottom: workforce genuine Against ‘Real business cycle’ 1215-1264 Ad ‘Comparisons markets’ Bechara Kramer Rzepka ‘Labour Recession: 9233 US: different?’ 1767 process’ 185-202 Bontout ‘Restoring EMU’ 203-246 ‘Wealth structure: Spain’ 259-290 stylised fact: variability?’ 103-163 employees’ Union: results’ 265-287 Bishop Salas Mobility Segregation: Essays Honor Silber 332 Volume Emerald Limited Bingley 205-235 Fernandez Jimeno ‘Worker flows Recession’ 1529 Banco Espana Madrid Banca d’Italia ‘Labor wages: 1973-1992’ 1001-1044 Lopez‑Bazo Ramos Royuela Surinach Internal Policies Scientific IP/A/EMPL/2013-05 Monthly 49-68 ‘Unconditional regressions’ 953-973 Liebig Puhani ‘Migration mechanism 7921 Italian Gli effetti della crisi sul potenziale produttivo sulla spesa delle famiglie Italia Workshops Conferences 186-213 (2014b) Rome ‘Real data’ 46-69 questions: (quasi-)joblessness? types? type? attracted (153) preparation task ‘poverty’; chooses ‘material ‘deprivation’; excepting 25) Part‑time pro‑rata 35-hour (work working‑aged zero; comprehensively refined 1991; Alderman 1995); (Coulter 1992; 2000); regularly quarters revisit pensionable legislative typolo18 gies ‘prime‑aged’ ‘elderly’ mapping messy defined; histories residents ‘fit’ re‑calculate (ignored construct: writing: HX080 RX060 RX050 typologies ‘trimmed’ averages) procedures) legibility (Esping‑Andersen 1990 4; different: single‑elderly constituent non‑working‑age (children anyone individu- als overall) divides (QJ_59) (QJ_64) QJ_64 QJ_59 all: biggest covered; students) Derived de_ned 59) 64) >= (couples defined) tends Profiles appearing bands smoothed Gaussian steeply flatter; age; (Quasi)-joblessness 340 thirties fifties twenties forties fifties; Couple‑only starker forties; mid‑fifties adults; (154) catapulted Spannagel Andress Lohmann 20-year‑old 28-year‑old household‑based man woman (155) mid‑twenties investigations under-26 true: arising single-person (Quasi-)joblessness: couple-only complicate ‘no‑child’ Members this; three‑child looks albeit QJ: sizes; families; elsewhere; elsewhere: SMD: 4+ mothers engage effect: mother job; load onto family’s marked: together: separately; overlaps 1314 weakest ineligible (156) hardships Bulgarians dimen- stacked bars) sions (25 deprivations) graph fared badly repeats moderately chapter; analogous dimensions; (weighted) left- conform typology) behaves respect: sixties non‑QJ Aside regions); income-poor ‘picks up’ problems; redundant picking socially excluded; supports type) retaining convincingly distress picked Haddad Hoddinott Kanbur ‘Unitary proof?’ Observer 1-19 relativities 1067-1082 post‑industrial Smarter greener inclusive? Can Be Learned 351 309-378 Doctoral dissertation statisticians’ censuses Geneva Revision 2’ 67/Rev ‘In‑Work Extent Causal Mechanisms’ Combating (COPE) B31945 intensity–an officially constituting (157) Vilnius Philosophy acknowledge consortium updating financially (Progress VS/2011/0445) G2 EU‑SILC/2011/55 EU‑SILC/2011/32; offices hollys@essex n-1 n+2 President‑elect Jean‑Claude Juncker statement reform [should go] assessment; (158) (Navicke 2013a; (159) embarking eu/about/juncker‑commission/docs/pg_en presenting (160) conditions: path (-10 projected Moderate (+1 non‑significant predict- (significantly non‑significant) predictions Isaacs Healy Monea Sawhill receipt/ historical predict unlikely Microsimulation (161) Combined macro‑micro shocks Essama‑Nssah Computable Equilibrium fed Danish Portuguese usage (Šustova Lauritsen Quitzau self‑defined (Junqueira Keane Matsaganis Sanchez‑Paramo Bangladesh simulate entitlement (Figari Salgado Avram probabilities (PL031) (162) logit Explanatory urban rural) specification availa- ble strata) (LFS) (163) Macro synchronised (164) eligibility stratum tasks: non‑simulated Updating forecasts 30th web‑database: codes lfsa_ergaed lfsq_ergaed quarterly lfsa_upgan lfsq_upgal non (165) Jara HX090) realistic (166) non‑take‑up (see: https:// www euromod uk/using-euromod/country-reports) (2013a) n-1) publishing uprating (167) nowcasts covariance (Goedeme recover fast: Contrary pensions’ indexation widows Worryingly act resort favourably (mean specified; percent; Rate (<18) Adults (18-64) (65+) 582 Nowcast 2*** 1* 2* 3** 846 579 5*** 9*** 6** 6* 1*** 0*** 8** 635 524 4* 3*** 954 6† 8* 0** 8*** LTL) 366 7*** 5* 5† PLN) 610 6*** 2† 4** 897 4*** 7* RON) 560 901 the: † Significance DASP Stata Svyset http://timgoedeme eu‑silc‑standard‑errors/ ilc_li02 ilc_di03 (accessed Jan VAT EUR) preferential generous removal ceilings child‑related nominally erode 2009-2013 95% Nowcasted points: com/eu‑silc‑standard‑errors/ backward smooth 2009-2013: Usually shifts emigration flows) occupations firms calibrated deviate demonstra19 tion Building Baltics population‑specific critically Structural trustworthiness experimenting logics waiting contemporary policy‑related ‘Ensuring Tasseva Tumino 1/2011 Demography Bussolo Da Silva Macro‑Micro Techniques Tools Palgrave‑Macmillan 362 Faiella ‘Country Browne Hood Joyce Sibieta Short- Medium‑Term Distribution’ 179-201 Macroeconomic Shocks Policies: Modeling Approaches’ 3682 ‘Welfare Recession’ S1 ‘Approximations truth: 387-407 Salvatori systems’ 257-286 10/09 Salanauskaite ‘Testing Results: Often Easier You Think Note’ 13/10 Lietz Mantovani changes’ 181-199 Recession’s Ongoing Urban ‘Baseline EU27 (2009-2013)’ EM18/14 Colchester Junqueira Figueiredo Gois Practices Callan Savage Walsh Timoney Crisis: Welfare’ Inquiry XLII 1-14 Usage Greece’ 209-223 Simulating ‘Great Families Knowing don’t know: 363 ‘Nowcasting 101-119 CGE Models: Flat 3715 Forschungsinstitut Zukunft Arbeit (IZA) EM9/15 today’s endangers Norton Co Šustova Š ‘EUROMOD: 4-26 (168) (169) robustness; elaborate Cardiff fruitful ‘enforced lack’ impressive: (mainly Recession) entering into/exiting hides considered) (broad) trend: Central/Eastern smoothly Eastern/Southern (Estonia increase/decrease (SMD)) (170) (again) slightly) Malta) increases: looked Calvert Cluster Decrease Relatively _at post-crisis Important: Y‑axis (clusters (top‑left pane) (23 ilc_sip8 -35 -30 -25 MD3 static transient/ recurrent episode(s) ‘persistently at‑persistent‑risk‑of‑poverty N-2 N-3) transient episode ‘recurrently’ ‘persistently’ Muffels (1999)) Slovakia: non‑availability dataset) (correlation 98) (171) quasi‑linear (2009-2011) N-1; Croatia) 2009-2012; ultimate escaping ‘medium’ ‘relatively high’ (higher ALL <= (together into/ entry/exit slowed trapped U‑shape diminution 9c (Italy (2006-2011 ‘06’ ‘11’ figure) over‑interpreting erratic sub‑periods: (2005-2008) depict unfavourable Important orange) deterioration Cross sectional -16 -17 -13 improvement) deterioration); quo event/ ‘A’ ‘B’ ‘A’) (odds job‑related immediate Partnership dissolution tested: Job Switch part-time (black crosses impressive evolutions: flat; (negative) (among deprived) trigger (with/without duration: 27) prevented into/exit levEvolution els Adding Kafka Lamei Lyberg Till ‘European Comparability Collection Coherence Component’ 5/2015 Statistik Indicator 611-638 Fouarge Dekker ‘Longitudinal (EPAG) risky regimes’ 257-278 budgeting mixture inventiveness mild informal financial/social reciprocity (Dean Shah lifestyles exchanging favours relatives one’s in‑laws (Orr (Yeung Hofferth 1998; Bryan (173) Orr absorbed fami( 172) Serge Paugam DGEMPL Eurostat‑funded (Net‑SILC2)’ Emails PomatiM@cardiff (health capital/debt friends; stretched unaffordable eventually luxury (Smith 2005) large‑scale commodity higher‑income (Farrell O’Connor Questions claims inefficient budgeting: declaring (172) Union’s happens ideally Deutsch (174) sequences evolves ascertain sequencing aids quit advocated (175) (3rd left) vast outlines voluntary owned Availability items’ Face choice; book)) No; Avoid (mortgage instalments) Keep have) ‘Adult (‘adults’ Spend (pocket money) Get drink/meal item(s) more/fewer/different lose corroborate claim visually (holidays arrears) thirteen probabilistic: prediction uncertain Holidays Shoes (Engel 1895; 1943; Leser 1963) classical supposed products maximize Econometric Deaton Muellbauer (1980)) prioritise acquisition (Roos Von Szelisk Paroush 1965 1973; McFall 1969; Hebden Pickering 1974) (1965 1973) Guttman (1950) image threat orders Unexp Exp Pocket Meat/chicken/fish Home selects 1-week shoes; scored (unable afford) K! 2!=2 Respondents (third (pattern: error) converted terms) (shoes first) national/EU ‘best’ WAVE results): meat/chicken/fish/vegetarian (resulting expenses) proteins hierarchies holidays* expenses* pocket equivalent* warm* arrears* car/van* computer/internet *Items Homogeneity hierarchies: noticeable (cross‑sectional)/ fits sensible store 720 (6!) (720-55)/720) (134th 154th message (meat/chicken/fish/vegetarian car/van) analysis) CS LONGI Meat/chicken/ fish/ equiv Car/van reallocated (sum Clothes Meat/ chicken/fish/ Computer/ ‘capacity expenses’ ‘shoes’ curtailment: (N) (N-1) Dickes (1983 1989) Gailly Hausman (1984) Perez‑Mayo Ayala Navarro Szeles IRT Highest (5th 478 541 Out ((1) Holidays; chicken/fish/vegetarian Arrears; Car/van) 478th postulates Characteristic Curves ICCs (shown X‑axis (s Y‑axis) ICC s : distinctively (meat/ similar; harder _nancial second-hand) equivalent) Avoiding Curve (Y‑axis) (X‑axis) interchangeable reiterate data‑driven narrative writing) drink reiterates suited theories; purchase/quality (un)able cheaper unify Applied 597-611 135-156 ‘Summarising Decision Action Combat 85/8/EEC OJ Dean ‘Insecure Low‑Paying Markets: Experience’ 61-80 (1980) ‘An 312-326 Kakwani Quantitative 226-243 first?’ 723-740 (1983) Modele Rasch pour dichotomiques: Theorie mesure Universite Nancy (1989) ‘Pauvrete d’Existence Theories Modeles Mesures’ PSELL Walferdange 49-62 Engel (1895) ‘Die Lebenskosten belgischer Arbeiter‑Familien fruher jetzt’ Farrell Low‑income 192 Corporate Leeds ‘Des desavantages relatifs une pauvrete’ Sarpellon Franco Angeli Milan 192-216 Waldfogel Washbrook ‘That’s goes: Stewart society? 251-275 399 scalogram analysis’ Stouffer Prediction Clausen Psychology War Princeton 60-90 (1974) Acquisition Durables’ 67-94 (1963) ‘Forms functions’ 694-703 ‘Priority Behavior’ Marketing 50-55 Brown Waters Ends Don’t Meet: Assets Vulnerabilities Livelihoods Thornaby‑on‑Tees Church Manchester Oxfam Cowley (1965) Order 225-235 ‘Efficient Kyklos 91-112 ‘Consistent 2004-09 Roos (1943) Demand Durable Goods’ Davidson Hampshire King Taylor Experiencing Voices Low‑Income Australians Stage SPRC Sydney ‘Item Quantity 15-45 Margins ‘Statistical laws expenditure’ Association 43-56 Yeung ‘Family Adaptations Loss 255-283 Open Method Coordination fortunes tracked (176) (ISER Essex) Micro‑Social (award ES/L0009153) (October Jenkins@lse philippe vankerm@liser (Wave (larger non‑random ‘differential’ chances dropout attrit EU‑SILC’s forerunner Behr Bellgardt Rendtel ECHP ran 1994 cross‑nationally (pure ECHP) rotating mandated conforming specifications them) (177) ECHP: benign ‘fears undermined unfounded’ 361) Her Fitzgerald Gottschalk Moffitt contrasting 4-wave scientific‑use Net‑SILC-2 2011-1 (178) equivalents pro rata belongs (henceforth (179) (2007-2009) cohorts releases) rotation started attritted unexplained samples) responded W1 Balanced (180) discard born co‑residents (non‑missing) non‑missing initially interviewed; newly‑formed mechanically interviewing ‘split‑off’ die unsuccessful initially‑sampled address) Fourth refuse (181) se; undesirable minimise Country‑specific (Museux rb060) thereafter rb060 non‑proportional non‑response) rb064 (construct- attrition) rb064) later) exercises undertake reproduce (rb064) calibrate nearer rates: (identified circles 1; gauged noting (p) formula d√(p(1-p)/N) clustering cheering analysts Non-register participating [17 %] [15 Ratios [8 cautionary whole) encompass (another filling respondent) (retention) exemplify univariate format follow-up Iceland) agesex age‑sex inevitable: him- education22 non-poor 21534 409 Woman <40 Man 40−64 Age-sex 32451 65231 410 Post−secondary Tertiary qualifications (Look fieldwork‑related (g) unsurprising securing respondent’s Under‑representation ‘proxy concern; (182) ‘one number’ probit Multivariate tease associations propensities (2017: Proxy (proxy Breakdowns Numbers reweighted covariate inverse fitted ri Φ(Xib) Normal Φ( vectors Xi (1/ri) fashion year‑on‑year (rather probabilities; mediating course) (183) (through out‑migration 413 (countries before) ‘All W1’ sample; ones) (yellow filled circles) (green diamonds) resolve (sometimes (Differences longitudinally‑weighted (compare diamond easiest demarcated counterparts unaccounted‑for forming weight) Bespoke (rb060) Long attritors) text) casts suggestive strong(er) reproducing overwhelm (crosses) squares) (184) messages longitu- Puzzlingly dinal sure lesson connects influences calibrating statistic) (Jenkins surrounded (circles) plain (squares) abounds attritors sanguine pin mindful Researchers readers reap lengthening Reducing payoffs resolved ‘Extent Panel’ 489-512 ‘Description (Version 2010)’ Online do?dataset=ilc_ li21&lang=en Michigan Dynamics’ 300-344 ‘Implications 2013-17 ‘Comparability Museux Presentation ‘Comparative EU‑Statistics Challenges’ ‘Sample 361-378 durably drivers turn‑over take‑ups (185) EMPL Leen thevenot@oecd org channels mitigate (Rowntree 1901) prone stages individualisation (Beck Taylor‑Gooby Céline Thévenot clear‑cut (recurrent occasional) plateful cooked spaghetti strand unravelled Gardiner 1): period; spell; income‑poor: Empirically isolate Recurrent spell Longer Pairs Time Persistently Recurrently Transiently exclusion) entrants year‑to‑year Symmetrically (186) (187) (188) transitions) incompatible persistent-risk-of-poverty web‑database) Four singled entry‑into‑poverty repeatedly insecure prospects entry-into-poverty exit- from-poverty prevention pulling exit-from-poverty MS (entry (exit risk‑of‑poverty extent? suf- 2;3 9] [42 2;62 2] [1 0;4 0] [28 4;39 8] 8;3 4] [26 4;43 [2 0;3 [36 2;49] 6;37 3;3 9;43 7] 1;6 3] [23 3;38 [3 8;5 [27 2;35 6;5 6] [29 2;42 2;6 [24 3;39 1] [13 2;20 8;6 [21 7;32 [4 3;5 [30 7;38 5] 0;6 6;42 5;5 [35 8;44 7;7 [31 3;42 [5 1;7 4;33 4;7 7;39 4;8 [25;35 [6 3;7 [29;35 5;9 9;56 [7 0;10 3;37 3;10 [40;51 8;12 [22 5;33 [9 6;12 6;44 Ultimate ficiently furthest succeeded spectrum multigenerational activated fulfilling tasks barriers re‑entering involuntary seekers Permanently or/and un_t Ful_lling responsibilities (temporary pay) low‑paid (189) better‑paid pertain non‑low Temporary contracts Hourly Schaffner Low‑wage earn full-time Type low‑wage ‘low‑wage’ ‘non‑low‑wage’ (all) Stay iii) (current Unless wages) stepping stones segmented (full-time*) low-wage Contract Pay Smoothing enabling treatments fac- tors exhausted recipiency se activation counselling disputed precarious (average) Non‑recipients Recipients 11;0 940 2;0 25] 559 25;0 3;0 4;0 5;0 55] 55;0 6;0 8;0 (recipients non‑recipients) backgrounds above‑mentioned (190) Non-recipient Receiving blocks (young experience) (%)* (bootstrap) Stratification matching: non‑recipient 6;8 Nearest neighbour 7;9 Radius (x radius 05) 0;12 Kernel method: decreasingly 5;8 dummies) rules) (being Through ‘core group’ trap switching income‑support chronological (job requirements) overtime) counselling) Beck Modernity Sage ‘Individual ‘Beleid onderzoek’ 12/6 1-80 Ruhr RWI Rheinisch‑Westfalisches Institut ‘Policy mobility’ 91-111 Fortunes Maestri 'The challenges' 2/2016 (1901) town Macmillan Zinn Why’ 03/2015 equalitarian (re)distribution debated popularity Lefranc Roemer Trannoy (192) (191) ours acknowledges Fonds Recherche AFR postdoctoral 5932132 francesco andreoli@liser alessio fusco@liser philosophers Dworkin (1981) Arneson Cohen Fleurbaey policymaker ‘endowment insensitive’ ‘responsibility‑sensitive’ enjoy/suffer unfair advantage/disadvantage ‘an generation geography origin’ disputable twofold reshaped intervention promoted involving ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or–social‑exclusion’ (AROPE; obstacles paternal control) (193) focus- father‑son intergeneration transmit es assessments Checchi Dunnzlaff Marrero Rodriguez (194) (195) (denoted illegitimate synthetic used/proposed Gignoux similarity EOp Lopez Vilaplana 437 Effort sphere Attainable contingent s) ys(c exerting Opportunity (EOp) accountable orthogonal monotonic circumstance relativistic outcomes) occupies outcome’s p) Pen’s Parade arranging (196) ys(c' ≠ c' Al- (cdf) ys FS(y|c) y) p-percent satisfies: FS (ys(c p)|c) cdf: F-1 (p|c) Maccheroni notation) singletons Parades curve’s axis) types’ c’ hand‑side reverses identifiable denoted: ys(c’ IOp IOp(s) transforms IOp(s') s’ formulations pairwise GI( yj GI(y yn): _j 2μ μy dimension: cj metric Gini‑type IOpp index): IOpp(s): (ys(c1 ys(cN p)) dp (c (cj wci μs neutral IOpp(s) averaged operator formulas) μs) exerted necessity Fs(y|c) Evaluations matter) uncer- yy p* (c’ ∀p (<) (<)p* (y) (c’) tainty account) IOpA obtain: IOpA(s): (E(Fs(y|c1)) E(Fs(y|cN))) realisations μc E(FS(y|c)) IOpA1(s): (μc dp| μci μcj generating type’s corrected GIc writes: IOpA2(s): )) reformulated ・ parade overweight driving interpretation: a‑priori (197) clash (Fleurbaey IOpP confer IOpA1 IOpA2 conveys RIF bootstrapped ‘Intergenerational between‑states 1983 pros cons (198) (199) here: eu/eurostat/web/ income‑and‑living‑conditions/data/ad‑hoc‑modules; (AT) (BE) (CY) (DK) (FR) (DE) (EE) (FI) (HU) (IE) (IS) (LT) (LU) (NL) (NO) (PL) (SE) (SK) foster Raitano Vona substitute non‑module respondents’ teenage father motives disregard parents) difficulties) nonetheless escapes groups) father’s bachelor master PhD stage education; non‑tertiary originating accumulation bargaining CIRCABC (200) highly‑educated eu/w/browse/3c60eeec‑aca4- 4db7-a035-0a6d892e6069 Medium 693 810 851 770 558 727 920 571 882 672 935 464 726 729 636 562 744 813 746 630 844 020 723 993 817 945 922 715 918 857 080 092 010 534 768 731 634 975 364 078 158 554 673 974 706 874 756 681 887 093 (low) (29 768) elasticity prestige generations top‑left well‑defined 098 high‑skill benefitted advantaged ‘opportunity unequal’ expects induce centre heterogeneously bottom‑right detecting Relevant top‑right bottom‑left somehow advantage/ fathers ‘comparable’ augmented results? conveniently rearranged Notable registering (201) conjecture elasticities son practically illustrational ‘change’ vague (they safely recalling smooths A1 (e_ciency) A2 (e_ciency−equity) −0 Di_erences 2011−2005 country‑year grey bootstraps panel): (least (202) infer Bjorklund (1986) confirmed Kjellstrom Mincer scenario (equal %/9 29-38 intergen24 Standards) Gap fathers) erational hints scatters ‘at‑risk‑of‑poverty‑or‑social‑exclusion facts passes pre‑schooling programmes thrive predistribution (203) transforming Heckman’s Boston bostonreview net/forum/ promoting‑social‑mobility‑james‑heckman ‘types’ gathers differentiated (our OLS 015) intercept 078) slope ilc_peps01) (father’s pitfalls module) ‘don’t know’ (an ‘present‑day wait rests meta‑analysis toolkit Havnes ‘Equalization opportunity: implementable early‑childhood evaluation’ 2014- ‘Equality Philosophical 77-93 Maynard Trinder Corlyon Parents Generations Heinemann comment -H Siven Timbro 1009-1018 ‘Estimating education: equation?’ 195-210 Peragine Serlenga ‘Fair ECINEQ 2010-174 448 egalitarian justice’ Ethics 906-944 Neumann Niehues 5375 185-246 America’ 622-657 Fairness Responsibility inherited?’ 27/2013 2A Edition 807-936 Pistolesi outcomes: alike?’ 513-546 luck: testable France’ 1189-1207 Muliere ‘Inverse generalized functionals’ METRON 529-559 597-621 83-102 opportunity’ 217-300 Intergenerational predictors IARIW 24-30 Rotterdam ‘Analysing Societies 82-105 ‘Intersecting Generalized 183-196 Existing offspring Altonji Dunn Chadwick Solon States; Countries; Blanden Ermisch Nicoletti Britain; Mocetti Italy; (204) Konstanz (Germany) Meeting (ECINEQ) Usual disclaimers (PDR 2011-1) ‘Fonds Recherche’ co‑funded Marie Curie Actions (FP7-COFUND) luna bellani@uni‑konstanz michela bia@liser Siedler industrialised attainments uncorrelated siblings’ siblings generalisation one‑child instrumental (205) variable; trans( 205) attempting mission overcome (Rubin 1974 Rubin Model child’s ‘neighbourhood’ notoriously Potential ‘treatment’ ‘growing household’) child) event (growing non‑treatment characteristics) ‘Rubin’s Model’ (RCM) formulates assignment revealing Y(0) (T Y(1) Y(1)-Y(0) Inference subjects treatment; observational indirectly) ‘propensity score’ 451 p(X) Pr(T 1|X x) E[T|X x] (206) ignorable randomised experiments ‘unconfounded’ ‘unconfoundedness’ ‘ignorability observables’ Imbens pre‑treatment conditioning covariates; (PS) (Rosenbaum 1983) Ti (treated) (control) Yi(1) Yi(0) ‘assignment treatment’ unconfounded unconfoundedness nearest‑neighbour propensity‑score Becker Ichino Dehejia Wabba methodologies) him/ Rosenbaum PS strata observationally identical) (Average Treatment [ATE]: τ E[Y1i‑Y0i p(Xi Treated [ATT]: τt (QTE) (207) QTE ATT FY1 Y1 QY1(q) τ(q) gains/loss distributions: QY1(q)-QY0(q) non‑parametric (Firpo Frolich Melly (208) (209) (often time) (210) (211) bad) ‘ability meet’ managerial tenancy adults: (212) unrestricted ilo org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/ isco88/ transformation non‑treated (only (213) Allison mother’s recall Mathiowetz Duncan Akerlof Yellen Jurges remembered generation’s saliency shield consider: wording 10-13 7-10 notice abstracting (214) Younger immigrants roof) 2011(a) 2011(b) 131*** 0967*** 0990*** (39 (31 0655*** 0952*** 0936*** (-25 75) (-34 65) 68) Ability 217*** 220*** (-61 67) (-63 73) parentheses 001 0796*** 110*** 0882*** 156*** 151*** 225*** 212*** 234*** 227*** 285*** 279*** 265*** 246*** 0405*** 0603*** 0560*** 0253* 0704*** 0738*** 177*** 184*** 0598*** 0465** 0490** 0547*** 0318 0371 0651** 0747*** 0520*** 0530*** 0484*** 0494*** 119*** 117*** 0637*** 0496* 0376* 0589*** 0804** 0757** 174*** 186*** 111*** 0576*** 0617*** 136*** 0779*** 0710** 191*** 209*** 0787*** 0786*** 0801*** 0710*** 115*** 0545*** 118*** 0344*** 121*** 276*** 0419*** 0469*** 0409*** 0640*** 0829*** 0781*** 0875*** 0814*** 189*** 182*** 0790*** 0961*** 0868*** 0800*** 108*** 287*** 291*** 0840*** 0795*** 0600*** 0705*** 0675*** 185*** 181*** 0722*** 113*** 0753*** 166*** 164*** 192*** 0943*** 0872*** 0623*** 0907*** 0960*** 239*** 135*** 152*** 157*** 125*** 129*** 0472*** 104*** 101*** 0538*** 163*** 159*** 221*** 219*** 0387** 0375** 0280 0306 250*** 0352*** 0580*** 0582*** 0176 0532** 0564*** 102*** 100*** 0478*** 0449*** 0442*** 0402*** 112*** 0750*** 0874*** 0754*** 0802*** 0963*** 0824*** 197*** 130*** 105*** 109*** 289*** 293*** 0989*** 0973*** 116*** 262*** 258*** 0450*** 0422*** 0400*** 0272* 0557*** 0525*** 0161** 0572*** 0231* 0548** 0647*** 237*** 0121 0370* 0366* 0132 0447* 0457* 0477** 0567** 0203 0354** 0263* 00499 0251 0130 0859*** 0384*** 0489*** 0466*** 0272** 0668*** 0652*** 124*** 0329 0292 0184 0271 0232 0193 106* 0954* 0385*** 00924 00280 123*** 455 probability; mediated (215) (country regressions) (‘Estimation Strategy’) (treated controls) (unconfoundedness) (causal) ‘Mediated’ causation immigration noticing adulthood) feeling (b)) mask ATE 020*** 022*** 005) 004) 010*** 024*** 015*** 037*** 007) 032*** 006) 144*** 033*** 139*** Bootstrapped B) C) ‘Average Effect’ Treated’ (2-3 (parts (d)) penalty 10-12 adult) Recalling confounders uncover (c)) regressors) (unconditional effect) estimator non‑parametrically (Koenker Bassett Robb Hahn Hirano Ridder (2003)) Koenker observables governing (conditional QTE) Q5 Q15 Q25 Q35 Q45 Q55 Q65 Q75 Q85 Q95 Unconditional Conditional (Q10) (total) U‑shaped middle‑low 55th quintile) Altogether (216) (Q5-Q10) (Q90-Q95) (Q50) (Q30-Q50) (Q10-Q45) proba- bility Nonetheless (217) together) ‘Unemployment Filter Memory’ Quarterly 747-773 Applications earnings’ 221-258 scores’ 358-377 Eriksson Osterbacka ‘Brother 757-772 ‘Accounting persistence: Noncognitive education’ C43-C60 daughters’ 335-344 ‘Propensity Score Nonexperimental Studies’ 151-161 mobility: 777-826 semiparametric effects’ 259-276 endogeneity’ 346-357 stata’ 423-457 Efficient Semiparametric Effects’ 315-331 ‘Alternative Solving Problem Selection Bias Evaluating Treatments Wainer Inferences Self Springer‑Verlag 63-107 1161-1189 Ho Imai Stuart ‘Matching nonparametric preprocessing inference’ 199-236 ‘Statistics 945-960 ‘Non exogeneity: review’ 4-29 ‘Regression Quantiles’ 33-50 Satisfaction Retrospective Error’ 43-61 Ojima Transmission Education: Dronkers Cross-national Perspectives Springer Media ‘Out Mind: Errors Unemployment’ 221-229 Biometrika 41-55 randomized nonrandomized studies’ 688-701 ‘Bayesian Effects: Randomization’ 34-58 Objective Trump 808-840 Goedemé (218) practicable producers’ (National NSIs) users’ (non Southampton (LIS) Luxembourg’s (STATEC) (Belgium) (Eurostat’s F4 life’) Berger@soton Osier@gmail com tim goedeme@uantwerpen post‑survey (re‑weighting (219)) confidentiality staff 2013a) (219) census) modifies totals/counts age‑gender Systematic Stratified two‑stage multi‑stage two‑phase (available CIRCABC) naive identically interpretations requests software (SAS SPSS Re‑sampling Bootstrap Jackknife (Verma Betti quickly (Berger simplifies variances ‘ultimate cluster’ Sarndal Swensson Wretman PSUs (‘ultimate clusters’) subsampling Kish 1965) underestimation 467 Consider yk θ θˆ (PSU) y: _ˆ mhi hij nh symbol (H PSU h-th ωhij yhij collapse ‘pseudo‑strata’ pseudo‑stratum (Ardilly coefficient) (Deville Demnati Wolter first‑order asymptotic (Demnati by: zhij )(_ =YX h• residuals yhi・ zhi・ quick powerful Deville regressors mi26 cro‑data g‑weights) hitherto sciences launch targeting; refreshed Luxembourg) Muennich Zins Qualite Tille Wood undertaking regression‑based Priam Oguz Alper =_1 y1i =_2 y2i θ1 θ2 resp _1i y1 s1 1i _2i y2 s2 2i ω1i ω2i notations ˆΔ Var(_ˆ) Var(_ˆ Cov(_ˆ Var(_ Var ˆ1) ˆ2) ρ (θ time‑correlated designs: 1h h=1 2h ⋃ _i (_1i _2i) bivariate variance‑covariance z1h z2h (dummy) stratification: s? ? βh γh ε1i ε2i _(_ˆ _1) ˆ_ design‑consistent Simulation outperforms fractions sub‑indicators: computations community) (220) Yearly normality assumption) +/-2 Romania; AROPE’s error: 3a 3b 3c 3d pretty registers) Limit Theorem (CLT) half‑lengths component: Shao formulas 1994) method‑specific Escobar hot‑deck streamlined occasionally SAS SEVANI (Beaumont Bissonnette Eurosystem (HFCN substituted 2013-2012 Margin 96*SE Calculations (break series) extraction) ‘Y’ ‘yes’ ‘N’ +/-0 (household id id) specialised Concrete recording (2004a) asymptotically strengthen train Ardilly ‘Cross‑sectional Survey’ 75-83 Beaumont -F ‘Variance Imputation: Behind SEVANI’ 171-179 Estimator Unequal Replacement’ 305-315 sampling’ 451-467 probabilities’ Australian 365-373 'Variance Estimators Repeated Rotating Surveys' pages doi:10 1111/insr 12197 ‘Linearization 17-26 J‑C C‑E ‘Calibration 418 376-382 Regression Horvitz‑Thompson Estimator’ 381-394 estimators: linearization techniques’ 193-203 ESS user’s recommendations’ 13/02 HFCN Wave’ John Wiley Sons Work‑package Advanced Laeken (AMELI) uni‑trier de/ php?id=24676 Turkish 155-175 167-195 added’ 173-181 ‘Jackknife 811-822 Assisted Verma ‘Taylor 1549-1576 estimators’ 53-78 maximises policy‑relevant projects ‘tracing’) re‑interviewed (222) laid ex( 221) plynn@essex Chances (ALICE)’ UK’s RES-062-23-1455 tent non‑follow‑up (223) project; 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appeared feel 1-year lengths (effectively (five waves); ‘perpetual’ replaced; infinite below; trade‑offs ever happy preference afforded useless Kalton Citro (2000 41) lasts demonstrates (indeed argues (p 183) findings) 5-year Hernandez‑Quevedo ascribe Eiffe onset attrition; eliminated not‑at‑random conceivable real‑life non‑representative steadily hard‑and‑fast women) ‘mature’ attain steady embody samples: NSI demanding implement; compounded NSIs shortening re‑approaching previously; anonymous pre‑existing NSIs; definitely (Strengths Weaknesses Threats) (2012c 2012d) change; minimised; re‑specified legislation next; higher‑than‑average suggestion tighter information‑sharing Calderwood Cleary Flore Cohort Study’ Melbourne ‘Keeping Chichester 183-203 Rose Researching 54-75 ‘Regulation parliament (EU‑SILC)’ 1-9 (2003a) ‘Commission 23-28 ‘Drawbacks component’ LC‑LEGAL/37-1/12/EN ‘Rotation LC- LEGAL/37-2/12/EN ‘Best LEGAL/37-3/12/EN (2012c) ‘Proposed LEGAL/37-4/12/EN (2012d) ‘Methodological LEGAL/37-5/12/EN 497 ‘Experiments 499-519 Groves Singer Corning ‘Leverage‑saliency participation: illustration’ 299-308 Masseria Mossialos ‘Socio‑economic 195-216 implementation) Fortunes: ‘Panel dimension’ 36-53 Kreuter Paradata: Analytic Uses Process 205-233 ‘Nonresponse Dillman Eltinge Little Nonresponse 259-272 Targeted appeals letters members' 771-782 Thomson Brook Attitudes Newsletter 12-14 Morton‑Williams Interviewer Dartmouth Company Aldershot ‘Progress society’ 241-263 acronym collection; (233) Nowadays profoundly thought Recently Jäntti utilising Lunn McKay Cifaldi Neri Liegeois Access quantitative constrain devote checks editing consuming disclosure expands (single sources) linkage alignment (Zhang (variables) (units) burdensome (Bakker involvement survey‑like self‑administered forms) processed electronic intentionally false classic (Matsaganis 2013); self‑declared underreported register(s) questionnaire‑based cognitively deleting precondition consent unit‑level Administrative timeliness; deadlines Broadly interviews) (SR) 16+ pre‑selected generalised SR olds tailored cuts (telephone burdening histories) complicates 502 Helgeson mid-1960s traditions well‑established registers: buildings Estate Norway) (Iceland post‑stratified Interviews (CATI) interviewing— (Computer Web (CAWI)) output‑harmonised room start‑up Inglič recruited spatial satellite Huynen Apart streamlining (Huynen system‑based tradition linkage) solved (234) (units thing manageable Within‑country issue; some) conduct survey- Mendez 2015; Nordberg 1956 interview- estate (Burricand rightly register‑data pilot revise (Mendez ‘mixed’ wherein Enquête Revenus Fiscaux Sociaux (independent (Enquete Sociaux) ibid) priori filtered Basque multiple‑source Consolini Donatiello (ISTAT) unsubstantial misclassification net‑to‑gross consolidating resolving conflicts (micro‑integration) Timeliness delays foreseeable survey‑based infrastructures pertinent intra‑country Could welfare‑state regime? interdependencies flag conflict comparability; prevents de‑centralised country’ 2000s decentralised Bakker ‘Micro‑Integration: art’ WP1 ESSnet Integration 77-107 508 Flevotomou ‘Distributional Evasion EM17/13 practises Ehling Harmonisation Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Office) Wiesbaden Documentation Register‑based Back Zhang ‘Topics integration’ Statistica Neerlandica 41-63 makers toolbox informed meantime modern scientifically Anal( 235) life) ESTAT-SECRETARIAT-F4@ec ysis complements further: mid‑term burning hardest (235) (EPSCO) ministers invited collaboration (236) urging (237) par Memorandum ‘New ‘Towards Cohesion Fund 2014-2020’ http://eur‑lex eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ do?uri=COM:20 13:0083:FIN:EN:PDF ‘GDP world’ COM(2009) eu/LexUriServ/ LexUriServ do?uri=COM:2009:0433:FIN:EN:PDF (238) architecture actions budgets orientations (collections administratively‑based ‘Integrated stipulating delegated acts areas: policies) Semester’ destatis de/EN/AboutUs/Events/ DGINS/Document_Memorandum pdf?__blob=publicationFile Early accommodated Imbalance Procedure macroeconomics Increased (web matching) re‑design estimates; 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Accuracy compliance interval) compatible Interview (CAWI) shortly 514 issues: 26); 11); achieved) Improved subject) (239)) regulatory routinely (‘nucleus’ every-3-year Micro‑simulation model‑based ‘nearly now‑casting forecasting (239) (240) non-income promising avenue evolutions) forecast micro‑level (each posterior model; feasibility content) Ministers regionalisation gradual EFTA article (however (against interim (metadata handler) standardising Reflections 516 Expectations solicited sectorial (ESS) universities centres (LISER) partners: LISER: (Net‑SILC2 Director) Anne Associated contributors: (University Institutes: Austria: Elisabeth Nadja Lars Matthias Finland: (INSEE): (STATEC): (ONS): Non‑ESS (academic/ research) (241): Freie Universitat (Germany): Ulrich (UK): Science) (Belgium): (241) Affiliations affiliation footnote Stockholm (Sweden): Italy: (‘old’ States) Enlargement (non‑EU) CAWI Resource Administrations Businesses Citizens CLT CTT EC ECOFIN EPSCO HH HHD HFC HFCS Net‑SILC institute Organisation Cooperation Ordinary RCM Rubin’s Simplified SSD Sum STIK 34-35 103n51 106n57 123n59 159n77 160-166 170-171 175n90 241n123 519-520a1 225-230 225n114 228n117 229n120 129n65 299n141 317n152 353n157 435n191 449n204 340n154 228-230 237-238 435n192 33n1 65n29 77-78 89-90 89n45 106n55 121-123 141n70 159n76 193n105 225-228 233n122 238-239 241n124 261n129 279n130 333n153 350-351 367n168 367n169 385n172 401n176 419n185 447-448 465n218 479n221 499n233 411–412 411-412 187-188 466-469 477-478 90-91 101-102 161–162 164-165 444n202 526 227n116 36-37 317-318 355n161 160n78 175-176 368n170 Carr-Hill 436n194 -E 279-280 296-297 496-497 Graaf-Zijl 194n107 211n111 427b23 393t21 394t21 J-C 469n220 51n8 290n138 -Y 103n52 426n189 Esping-Andersen 91-92 Essama-Nssah Union) 209n110 355-356 362-363 451n207 65n30 105-106 33n2 293n140 385n173 398-399 311n149 372n171 193n104 358t19 359f19 439n197 477- 194n108 210-212 220t11 223-224 386n175 514n239 296- 436n195 195-196 200f10 206-207 528 225-227 229-230 397-398 446n203 Hernandez-Quevedo 89-91 92t4 98n50 483-484 Inglič 402n177 436n193 443-444 499-502 504-507 360-361 173-174 176-177 411n182 447-449 529 160-165 212n112 439-440 36- 160-163 Lopez-Bazo 479-480 437n196 226-227 39n5 42-43 47-48 65-66 121- 211-212 225-226 397-397 73-75 78t3 136t6 139-140 503-506 161-162 Morton-Williams 356n166 238-240 194-195 373t20 423t23 427f23 477–478 333–334 106n56 132-133 133f6 Perez-Mayo Perrig-Chiello A-R 468-469 360-362 531 331-332 450-451 Sanchez-Paramo C-E 466-467 142-147 148n75 156-157 121-122 239- 256n128 397–398 C-H 100–101 335–336 336t18 187-189 361-363 Taylor-Gooby Till-Tentschert V-M 124n60 126-127 127n64 140-141 142-148 223-225 239-240 361-362 Uldall-Poulsen 421n186 401-402 428b23 271-272 333-334 416-417 224-227 440n198 appendices bold keyword places (data) (richness) 103-122 123-140 ee ffluence 105f5 106-109 108f5 109f5 110f5 111f5 112t5 134-135 136f6 138-139 line/ 124-125 di spersion ndicator/ 65-67 107t5 113f5 116f5 117f5 120t5 123-124 133-134 ultidimensional rimal 113-116 212-214 APPLICA (Brussels (‘at poverty’) 47f1 65n31 66n34 67n36 67-68 74-75 78-79 81-82 149-150 151t7 155t7 170t8 186f9 186-187 231t12 233-234 234t12 291-292 293f15 295t15 299-315 333-351 353-363 402-403 421f23 468-471 473t26 502-504 AROPE; (MD); ((quasi-)joblessness (QJ/ ROP 66n33 70f3 71f3 103-105 efinition armonised mputed 149-157 wcasting ersistent tandard (‘at-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion’) 45-46 152-153t7 201f10 446f24 472t26 513-514 AROP; agenda/ strategy; target/ goal; composition/ type/ structure; 339f18 469-471 470t26 309-315 (ATE) ‘at‑persistent‑risk‑of‑poverty’ 401- 481-496 475-476 481-488 483f22 487f22 567 404-417 405-413 401-417 456t25 457f25 40-41 bi-polarisation 119-121 121f5 283-285 285t15 286-287 287t15 288f15 289-294 (bootstrap re‑sampling method; method) 433t23 444f24 40% (CAPI) CEPS/INSTEAD Socio- (formerly INSTEAD)) 535 43-46 93-100 150-151t7 159-166 167t8 177-178 183-184 183n98 184n100 186n102 209-224 255f13 269f14 271f14 277t14 300-302 301n145 303t16 336- 343-346 348-350 354-355 381f20 387t2 409f22 430f23 443-445 449-461 512t29 Alpha; (early care); Task‑Force; exclusion/ indicator/ poverty/ 229-300 214t11 77f3 130t6 379t20 405-407 415-417 422-423 442-445 458f25 471-477 52n11-13 57t2 Affairs); Council) crisis/ Recession/ 212-213 215f11 component/ measure/ 52-53 52n10 265-266 290t15 322t17 324f17 371f20 372f20 374f20 376f20 380t20 385-399 403- 403n179 412-416 467-471 493- (richness); dominance; CAPI; CATI; CAWI; PAPI; registers; self‑administrated 279-297 324-330 117-121 106-108 109t5 536 181-182 317-319 322-331 426f23 429f23 440n199 441-444 441n200 443n201 446-447 452n212 wages/ ECLAC (ECOFIN) 36-39 41-43 261-277 281n134 291n139 299-302 302n147 305-306 312-314 317-332 354-356 356n163 356n164 359-361 419-434 Strategy; (ER) 284- 289-290 employment/ 270-271 276t14 280n132 410f22 2e 283-289 293-296 506-507 193-195 193n106 210-211 213-214 370f20 387t21 equivalent/ scale; interval; error; coordination indicators); inclusion; 537 266- 270f14 274t14 275t14 279-282 284f15 356-357 (severe) 55n21 61n26 66n32 73-74 103-104 rules’/ ‘tracing 52n16 56-57 495-496 basis/ 55-56 501-503 505-507 514-516 52n18 59-60 147n73 466t26 313-314 509-516 Conditions; (First EU-SILC); (Second 52n17 144-145 511-514 child(ren); (tax‑benefit 356n165 354-357 40- 43-45 261-262 509-511 43-44 36-38 39- 39-40 48-49 52nn14-18 60-61 81n44 165n82 256-257 271- 299n142 510n236 538 Package 311-315 52n11 5510-11 52n9 60- 72f3 73f3 76f3 80f3 81f3 83f3 11b 84f3 89n46 104-105 134n68 135t6 247f13 250f13 251f13 252f13 254f13 258t13 265- 320f17 321f17 354n160 357n167 414f22 3ab 416f22 479n223 490n232 504f28 505f28 (HFCN) 41-42 141-142 159-160 163-165 241-258 323t17 expenditure/ (Foster–Greer–Thorbecke) Net-SILC Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (female 165- 166n84 175-178 184-188 326t17 339-340 340n155 342f18 408-409f22 2bc 431t23 452-453 465n219 486t27 488t27 (Gross Income) 76-77 539 9ab 35f4 149t7 169t8 322-323 504-506 437-439 37-38 367-383 509-510 163-164 319-323 510n237 GDP; (GNI) 85f3 13b 86f3 correction/ (definition 53-56 94-96 143-147 159-162 165-168 175-189 210- 216t11 219f11 241-242 264-271 299-314 367-368 381-382 391-392 424-425 440-441 449-453 459-460 466-470 479-489 500-502 511-512 514-515 expenditure; (IR); 137f6 137-138 54- 54n20 68n40 74t3 94f4 96-97 96n49 99f4 129-132 130f6 131t6 143-144 146-147 175-177 175n91 179t9 180t9 181-184 185f9 356- 403n180 451-452 sharing/ distribution/ 94-100 96n48 242-243 250-252 254-255 89-102 162n80 165-167 166n86 168-169 204- 217-218 301-306 93t4 180-181 337t18 338f18 348-349 349f18 540 95-96 303t6 99-100 301-302 344f18 345-346 346f18 412n183 205t10 sharers) children/ 94-967 97f4 345f18 348f18 341f18 (social) 35-36 40-42 123-131 209-210 479-497 499-508 574-585 583t27 584t27 585 Survey; (CAPI); (CATI); (CAWI); (ECHP); (LFS); (HBS); pen(cil) (PAPI); 53-54 141-147 228-229 251-252 141-157 168n89 146f7 147-149 167-172 180-183 451-454 33-35 127- 148-149 159-163 165-166 182f9 187n103 309f16 353-355 171-173 35n3 72-73 13ab 148t7 160-162 451-459 124-129 33-36 38-39 65- 217m113 218f11 243f13 244t13 245-246f13 248f13 249f13 233-235 35f3 (definition) income(-related) 72-74 82-84 167-168 506- (SPC); index; Income); coefficient; (MPI); (SPC‑ISG/ ISG); (SDGs); Bank) ISG) 167- 186-188 353-354 436-439 503-505 503n234 cumulation; women); (IOp) 435-448 (INET) in‑cash disadvantage/ Office/ 228-289 ISG ISTAT 396-397 (IRT)/ 212- LIS Socio-Economic CEPS/INSTEAD)) (LSE) 38-40 42-44 55-58 207n109 306-307 371- 374-376 ‘following’ rules/ ‘tracing’ rules; non‑response; length/ 481-497 LSE approach/ evaluation/ 510- 171- 193-207 233-237 241- 299-301 367-38 494-495 sequences; (ICCs); (IRT); 449-450 543 193- test; tests; 385-387 389-390 (standard/ severe) 395- (evolution) 194n198 203- 210-213 242-258 225-231 371-378 382-38 299-300 308f16 310-314 469- 474t26 193-194 196-198 201-206 Matthew MDGs (MDGs) (real earnings) micro‑data(set)/ micro‑statistics 142n126 statistics/ migration/ 455n125 225-240 (Foster–Greer– Thorbecke) 235f12 236t12 225- 41-82 68n38 86-87 318-319 321-323 510-511 515-516 statistics; 544 166n87 168-171 (simplified n222 513-516 519n241 (NLPCA) ‘survey’/ 58-59 404-405 Co‑operation (OECD) (OPHI) 172t8 rules’; of; following/ 386n174 420-421 480-481 480n224 490-496 512-513 (PAPI) coefficient/ fitting/ index/ simulation 127-129 Pearson 274-276 (= AROP) 419-421 476t26 bi‑polarisation; passim line; 65-87 286-296 ($1 $1 day) 104-112 422f23 Parity 431-433 453-457 unit) 159-174 159-161 164-166 34-36 159- 305f16 314t16 2f 440-443 445-447 452n210 162-166 45f7 445f24 68n39 441t24 see(quasi-)joblessness reports; 123-128 404- 481-487 72-75 73-78 266-268 181-183 51-53 56-61 511-516 500-503 124- 465ff 142-143 413-414 465-477 457-459 217-219 229-231 279- 279-296 353n159 475t26 nowcasting; 299- dynamics/ 319-322 1% 40-48 advancing (creating 382-383 expanding 513f29 register‑based/ marker 510-516 313-315 45–46 pursuing 44-47 scrutinising 126- modes; 499-500 548 406f22 480-484 486-487 487n228 countries/ 499-501 481-483 483t27 485t27 501-502 505- 123-125 336-337 401-405 411-416 449-460 465-478 479-487 490-495 467-468 125f6 person’ 111n58 178n94 466- 466-477 130-131 412- (paper) (Severe Deprivation) 167-170 33-49 46-47 67n37 Cambridge) 41n6 181- 354-359 430-434 (STIK) 170-173 267f14 405-406 STATEC (synthetic) 503-504 188-189 245-248 250- 550 Commission/ hardship/ 44-48 124-128 TARKI (Budapest 123ff 126f6 130-132 132-134 (UNDP) 233n121 (MDGs); (ECLAC); 519a1 WB (WB) weighting/ 327f17 465-467 White 551 WIID (WTID WIID) 45-47 131n67 262-263 268-271 313- 334-335 (now HOW TO OBTAIN PUBLICATIONSFree publications:• copy: Bookshop (http://bookshop eu);• copy posters/maps: representations eu/represent_en htm); non-EU (http://eeas eu/delegations/index_en contacting eu/europedirect/index_en htm) (freephone anywhere Priced ‘Europe Conditions’ cross-sectional strengthened eu/eurostat/ KS-05-14-075-EN-C__
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Il faut que ça bouge! Lakmoestest voor sociale staatshervorming
Il faut que ça bouge ! Lakmoestest voor een sociale staatshervorming Frank Vandenbroucke 4 april 2007 De Morgen (tekst zoals ingestuurd ; tekst is gepubliceerd met als titel ‘Il bouge!’) Waarom de staat hervormen? Omdat wij “ons Vlaams geld terug willen”? Of omdat we het beleid “dichter bij mensen wensen”? Vlaanderen Brussel en Wallonië “té verschillend” zijn? Regionale verschillen zijn argument maar toch mijn motief anders: moet hervormd worden om sterker te maken Om sterke overheden aan werk zetten meer jobs betere bescherming lakmoestest drievoudig Winnen slagkracht? Loopt sociaal overleg beter? Ontstaat er hervormingsdynamiek? Een ander dogma dan deze heb ik niet Sterke moeten weten wat hun kerntaken zonder elkaar voeten lopen hebben die kerntaak van federale overheid financieren fatsoenlijke pensioenen gezondheidszorg Daarvoor in toekomst nodig gewesten gemeenschappen al heeft investeren activeren menselijk kapitaal Onderwijs opleiding horen daarbij ook overstap naar arbeidsmarkt dat laatste goed pakken wel samenhang Neem arbeidsbemiddeling zowel warm sterk wil oog verschil tussen werklozen Sommige kun je meteen bedrijf sturen ze grote persoonlijke problemen Dat kan zelfs jarenlange begeleiding vragen welzijnscontext verslaving Andere dadelijk confronteren realiteit Het arbeidsbemiddelaars eigen ogen kunnen vaststellen Beleid op gebied beschikbaarheid (wie stel vrij onmiddellijke beschikbaarheid? wie vraag hulp welzijnssector? hoe ga geschikt acht gaan?) dus toevertrouwen gewestelijke diensten Vanzelfsprekend binnen breed normatief kader waarmee niveau grenzen vastlegt vervolgens financieel aanspreken meer- of minwaarden creëren zekerheid activering maat elke regio krijgen tewerkstellingsbeleid doelgroepen (selectieve lastenverlaging uitkeringen) uitsluitend gewestbevoegdheid Nu zit versnipperd Opnieuw invulling gebeuren federaal waarbij kosten baten acties kas verrekend doelmatiger ingewikkelde dure compromissen uiteenlopende doelstellingen En natuurlijk hoort facto Plaatselijke Werkgelegenheidsagentschappen outplacement ondubbelzinnig onder thuis Zoals misschien bepalen welke gevallen uitzendarbeid toegelaten Ook exclusieve bevoegdheid Gemeenschappen consequenter toegepast worden: zelf geen opleidingsprojecten bezig opleidingsaspecten Betaald Educatief Verlof Industrieel Leerwezen Breng levenslang leren één hand Merk voorstellen mobiliteit werkzoekenden over gewestgrenzen samenwerking bemoeilijkt Integendeel zullen méér vroeger efficiënte zoeken vermits geresponsabiliseerd uitwerking resultaten Sociaal vereist Zeker gevoelige kwesties kruispunt onderwijs hervormen middel begraven integendeel hervorming naast andere ons model vernieuwen Tegenover “we want our money back” plaats liever motief: il bouge!
Inequality and poverty in Europe. The challenge of convergence and cohesion
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Inequalities_EU_European_Dialogue_27-4-2017
Inequality and poverty in Europe The challenge of convergence cohesion Frank Vandenbroucke University Amsterdam European Dialogue 2017 ETUI – Hans Böckler Stiftung Brussels 27 April Material deprivation: an absolute notion Inability to afford 3 or more items on a list 9; true pan-European benchmark 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU22 (unweighted average) EU27 (weighted average pan-European) deprivation clusters EU countries Unweighted averages for 50 60 EU15 Core+North South EU7 Ireland UK Poland within countries: at-risk-of-poverty rates country clusters) EU7: CZ HU LV LT EE SI SK EU22: 28 without RO BG MT LU CY CR! Years are survey-years; incomes refer t-1 contribution transfers (not pensions) the reduction 2004-06 Inefficient ‘pension-heavy’ welfare states Erosion mature ? Source: Eurostat own calculation ‘poverty by (excl pensions)’ total population SILC 2005-2007 en Diagnosis policy lessons (1) has stopped being ‘convergence machine’ is becoming unequal both between There no one-size-fits-all explanation inequalities hence silver bullet tackle increasing We need set complementary strategies instruments that can improve social protection employment perspectives households with weak attachment labour market Improving our human capital requires child-centred investment strategy addresses opportunities (2): should support aggregate prosperity across member towards equality stimulate develop packages pursue aims simultaneously Human capital: upward quality key condition long-term Reducing background families children investing child care education contribute national EU-wide Governments pursuing such deserve encouragement learn from other governments but also tangible notably when they budgetary dire straits ‘solidarity reform’ (3): EMU Design flaws ill-guided policies major divergence Eurozone Completing Monetary Union risk-sharing (Banking Re-insurance unemployment insurance schemes): this turns standards activation Thank you 1. Rinaldi Social In: Vision Summit Consortium (eds ): Redesigning Ways forward Gütersloh (http://www vision-europe-summit eu/) 2. Goedemé Zardo Trindade A perspective low-income dynamics CSB Working Paper 17/03 Antwerp: Herman Deleeck Centre Policy (University Antwerp) 3. monetary union: puzzles paradoxes in: Boone Marc; Deneckere Gita & Tollebeek Jo ) End Postwar Future – Essays work Ian Buruma Verhandelingen van de KVAB voor Wetenschappen Kunsten Nieuwe reeks 31 Uitgeverij Peeters Forthcoming www frankvandenbroucke uva nl
Naar een nieuw sociaal contract. Het pensioen op punten
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283-Naar-een-nieuw-sociaal-contract_Het-pensioen-op-punten_Leuvense-Economische-Standpunten-2017_162_10-april-2017
LEUVENSE ECONOMISCHE STANDPUNTEN 2017/162 Erik Schokkaert erik schokkaert@kuleuven be Pierre Devolder pierre devolder@uclouvain Jean Hindriks jean hindriks@uclouvain Frank Vandenbroucke F I G Vandenbroucke@uva nl 10 april 2017 NAAR EEN NIEUW SOCIAAL CONTRACT – HET PENSIOEN OP PUNTEN SAMENVATTING • Een echte pensioenhervorming moet verder gaan dan punctuele ingrepen Ze op een geloofwaardige wijze gestalte geven aan nieuw sociaal contract tussen de verschillende generaties De Commissie Pensioenhervorming had die nieuwe architectuur opgebouwd rond invoering van puntensysteem In dit Standpunt brengen we basisprincipes ervan nog eens in herinnering Mensen bouwen tijdens hun actieve leven aantal pensioenpunten waarop punten worden toegekend bepaalt verdeling binnen generatie Het totaal verworven wordt het moment pensionering omgezet pensioenbedrag waarde punt garandeert gepensioneerden inkomen dat verhouding staat tot gemiddelde samenleving uittreding kan zekere hoogte door mensen zelf gekozen maar wel actuarieel neutrale gebeuren We stellen correctie voor eerste instantie afhangt duur loopbaan tonen welke mogelijkheid deeltijds pensioen ingebouwd en hoe er rekening gehouden met zwaarte beroep toekomstige stijging levensverwachting opgevangen verlenging referentieloopbaan Wanneer niet voldoende is last aanpassingen evenwichtige over verdeeld Musgrave-regel legt loon na aftrek bijdragen pensioenen constant blijft LES 2 Naar INLEIDING 2020- 2040 heeft zijn rapport juni 2014 samenhangende visie ontwikkeld grondige hervorming Belgische pensioensysteem1 regeerakkoord regering-Michel voorstel gedeeltelijk overgenomen Tot nu toe werden echter hoofdzakelijk maatregelen genomen waarvan verschuiving pensioenleeftijd 65 naar 67 jaar meest opvallende Punctuele voldoende: dringend gewerkt uitbouw globale systeem voorbereiding werd ook opgenomen willen daarbij technische details of formele aspecten eerder onderliggende maatschappelijke doelstellingen meer presentatie gevonden et al (2017)2 (2017)3 vormt andere korte inleiding iets klemtoon “Jongeren zullen slechts bereid bij te dragen wanneer ze geloven hen toekomst aanvaardbaar zal opleveren ” belangrijkste uitdagingen waarmee pensioensysteem geconfronteerd afbrokkelende vertrouwen groeiende onzekerheid zowel oudere als jongere Dat hangt samen twijfels betaalbaarheid langere termijn vooral licht vergrijzing Voor deel verklaard beperkte transparantie hebben moeilijk om goede kijk krijgen pensioenrechten opbouwen repartitiestelsel waarbij nochtans houdbaar Jongeren immers sociale aanvaardbaarheid dus maken intergenerationele rechtvaardigheid d w z welvaartsverhouding ouderen jongeren Maar geïnteresseerd coherent daarover klare regels bevatten Bovendien wijzigende omstandigheden Traditionele gezinsstructuren staan onder druk individualisering leidt toenemende vraag flexibiliteit vrijheid uitdaging bestaat tegemoet komen collectief Enkel grote repartitiecomponent economische schokken vangen effecten spreiden4 correcte geconcipieerd moeten uitgewerkt duidelijk verantwoordelijkheid impliceert techniek ertoe deze principes implementeren leggen eerst uit dieper elementen BASISPRINCIPES VAN PUNTENSYSTEEM intragenerationele (afdeling 3) 1 commissie bestond Jos Berghman (+) Jacques Boulet Bea Cantillon Ria Janvier Alain Jousten Françoise Masai Gabriel Perl Yves Stevens Haar werkzaamheden ondersteund Hans Peeters Guy Van Camp Koen Vleminckx volledige beschikbaar http://pension2040 belgium be/nl/ E P J (2017) Towards an equitable and sustainable points system A proposal for pension reform Belgium Discussion Paper DPS 17 03 Department Economics KU Leuven 3 Réforme des pensions légales: le système à Regards Economiques No 130 4 betekent overigens geen ruimte zou kapitalisatie Integendeel gestreefd mix repartitie maandelijks euro behulp volgende eenvoudige formule: = opgebouwde x correctiefactor afhankelijk situatie Alle verzameld zelfde onafhankelijk periode waarin verkregen mechanisme bepaald transparante inhoud beloften gedaan zekerheid bieden welvaartspositie lichten afdeling 5 type – tegenstelling wat vaak geval alleen af leeftijd betrokkene haar iemand wiens overeenstemt vastgelegde referentieduur gelijk Hij kleiner groter later uitgelegd men reeds principe welvaartsvast geïndexeerd nominale groeivoet brutoloon economie noodzakelijk bewaken kunnen bestaande hierin betrokken Op zogenaamde houdbaarheidscoëfficient toegepast (zie 5) gepleit fusie pensioenstelsels werknemers zelfstandigen ambtenaren stelsels dezelfde passen gemengde zouden elk actief uiteindelijke samengesteld deelpensioenen nota illustreren werknemersstelsel PUNTENOPBOUW TIJDENS ACTIEVE LEVEN: INTRAGENERATIONELE RECHTVAARDIGHEID rechten huidige berekend som inflatie gecorrigeerde geplafonneerde brutoverdiensten gedeeld 45 vermenigvuldigd vervangingsratio (0 60 0 75 gezinssituatie) opbouw puntenrekening gebeurt gelijkaardige doordat gerekend facto wijzigingen reële bruto één pensioenpunt kennen gedurende bruto-inkomen verdiend voorbeeld illustreert Voorbeeld 1: André accumuleert basis eigen jaarlijks alle private sector Als verwerft hij 80% bedraagt krijgt 8 120% steeds uiteindelijk Dit biedt transparant Hierbij vorm verzekeringsprincipe gerespecteerd langer werkt verdient verwerven Natuurlijk weet betekenen latere geldtermen: terugkomen toch zonder probleem relatieve plaats bepalen verzamelt Solidariteit verzekeringssysteem solidariteit zwakkeren opvattingen (en politieke partijen bewegingen) lopen uiteen ver waar grenslijn getrokken individuele collectieve maakt mogelijk hierover plafonds minima ingevoerd boven plafond uitstijgt levert gedeelte bijkomende zich uitgesproken voorgesteld mee laten evolueren zwaksten minimale puntengarantie hele voltijds daardoor recht puntentotaal 10% bestaansminimum ligt garantie via minimum proportioneel lengte tweede periodes inactiviteit (onvrijwillige werkloosheid ziekte ouderschapsverlof enz ) beslissen activiteiten gelijkstelling aanmerking Hier zeker breed maatschappelijk debat: bijvoorbeeld mantelzorg belangrijker toekennen mantelzorgers ophouden werken zorg verlenen? En hoeveel krijgen? Moet hier forfaitaire hoeveelheid daarvoor loon? Zoals gezegd zichzelf antwoord vragen antwoorden concreet coherente Doordat makkelijk interpreteren (het geeft verdiend) discussie gevoerd Men hoeft beantwoorden welk geldelijk overeenkomen perioden rechtstreeks concentreren positie vergelijking FLEXIBELE UITTREDINGSLEEFTIJD essentieel inschatting uitleggen daar uittredingsbeslissing Deze wenselijk omdat aansluit aanvaardbare Duur “normale” arbeidsmarkt Om maken: gekeken wagen kilometers kilometerteller (zonder sanctie) achter rug iedereen beginnen bereikt worden5 Rond vooraf venster6 lager (een malus) hoger bonus) idee geoperationaliseerd “correctiefactor” voorkomt basisformule normale verlaat bonus malus verschil effectieve individu geargumenteerd repartitiesysteem zin uniforme wettelijke verdwijnt zeer late lange (niet-gelijkgestelde) hoog interactie « » ons «normale» 6 model uniform ogenblik begon qua benadering Rapport 2020-2040 impliceren venster laat variëren functie Vanzelfsprekend vormen specifieke voorstellen stof toegepaste afhangen levensverwachting7 Formeel uitgedrukt correctiecoëfficiënt Die vroeger gaat toont denkbeeldige (die louter ter illustratie vastprikken jaar)8 2: Veronderstel 21-jarige 66 wil vervroegd zij 64 50 €40 Omdat twee (verwacht overblijvende levensjaren jaar/ verwacht jaar) 19 2/20 9239 40 923 1846€ Deeltijds gericht standaardgeval volledig Flexibiliteit einde blijven optie geleidelijk verlaten veel gelegenheid creëren economisch robuust uitstapregelingen creëert duidelijkheid statuut personen (deeltijds) tijd vullen zoals verkiest: voorwaarde opgelegd tegelijkertijd behoudt professionele activiteit oefenen ingewikkelde regulering vermijden weer verdwijnen natuurlijk enkel inderdaad invoert doen belang nemen daarna Ook verduidelijken hand eenvoudig “Deeltijds 3: Charles 21 geworden helft omzetten Rekening houdend hem 25 923€ halftijds stopt zet (25 + 26 2) Er veronderstellen lijn gestegen 41€ 41 1074€ 946€ Zijn 64-jarige 2020€ Vergelijk welvaartsaanpassing 1892€ Zware beroepen Bij elke speelt zware rol tamelijk algemeen rechtvaardig beschouwd fysiek psychisch zwaar uitoefenen erover arbeidsduur soms loopbaanduur criterium problematiek zwaardere terecht 7 Zie aanvullende minstens Indien uitvallen zie 9 cijfers http://ec europa eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/ deaths-life-expectancy-data (update 20/3/2017) voeren Aan namelijk additionele gevolg ouder grotere compenseren vervroegde zodat hetzelfde uittreden uitgeoefend “Aan vele voordelen gemakkelijke houden verschuivingen definitie doorheen belonen lichter overgeschakeld Daardoor laatste beslissing ontmoedigd wordende moeite (zwaar) overstappen mogelijkheden gedrang blijkt zo gemakkelijk consensus precieze bestaan overtuigende objectieve indicatoren bovendien veranderen overleg daarom vaste reserveren allocatie daarvan partners beslissingen vast liggend puntenbudget DE WAARDE PUNT: VERTROUWEN EN ZEKERHEID open vastgelegd sleutelparameter ik heb 25-jarige leeftijd: weten mijn niemand uitzien tussentijd raken kern probleem: vertrouwenwekkend formuleren ouderen? gezicht denken meeste geboden geldelijke tegenwaarde misvatting (vanuit oogpunt) geldbedrag sterk gegroeid bedrag mij net (of onder) armoedegrens ingestort beloofde overeenkomt hoge levensstandaard realiseren verzekering tegen risico vanuit welvaartsstandpunt beter koppelen arbeidsinkomen onmogelijk genereuze toestand verslechtert aanzienlijk nageleefd onwaarschijnlijk (de jongeren) welvaartspeil bereiken Geloofwaardige vereisen voorhand nagedacht mogelijke aanpassingsmechanismen wijzigt ideeën achtereenvolgens Echte valse zekerheden: linkt geldende levensstandaard10 Beschouw precies volbracht zodanig persoon fractie hypothetische vermits praktijk voortschrijdend 4: Dirk juist referentieloopbaan) 100€ 50% voorziet (gelijk punt) 550€ 555€/45 34 4€ identiek Iedereen perfect volgen voorspellen referentiepersoon verhouden Gedurende bekend: waarborg toelaten vergelijkbaar anderen enige beste Zodra gepensioneerd welvaartsvast: aangepast evolutie lonen tenzij bepaalde waarborgen rechtvaardige stabiel stand Aanpassingsmechanismen: contract: referentiepunt liggende best voorspelbare) wijziging logisch prikkel indien behouden voorwaardelijke zekerheid: stijgt11 theorie leiden daling puntenwaarde beïnvloed normaal gesproken stijgen voorzien waardoor nooit dalen hoogstens jaren bevroren totdat wenselijke modaliteiten voorwerp uitmaken onderhandelingen: voorspelbaar gecreëerd houdbaarheid pensioenstelsel “De stijgt betaalbaar voordoen (bv sterke structurele werkloosheid) waarvoor aanpassing bevolking gevallen zuiver defined benefit» afhankelijkheidsratio bijdragevoet daarop loonkosten concurrentiepositie «defined contribution» verminderen schouders Ervaringen landen uitgewezen welvaartsverliezen lage evenwichtig aanpassingsmechanisme eerlijk verdelen actieven stelt baseren 11 standaardmodel aangetoond wijzigen aandeel pensioenjaren vanaf begin Musgrave-regel12 regel past filosofie vastliggende gehanteerd bepaling werking vereenvoudigd realistisch kader 5: budgetvoorwaarde geschreven gemiddeld loontrekkenden schrijven (aantal gepensioneerden/ loontrekkenden) Vertrekken initiële dubbel zoveel respectievelijk 000€ 500€ 25% evenwicht Musgrave-ratio 500/ ((1-0 25) 000) Bekijken 35 2% derde kolom Veronderstellen (vierde kolom) (vijfde zelfs (rechterkolom) onderstaande tabel vergelijkt drie situaties: (bovenste paneel) groei volgt omwille (middenste Musgrave (onderste spreidt Zowel netto-lonen stijgen(omdat 2%) stijgingsritme cruciaal reageert verhoogd daalt Musgrave-verhouding productiviteitstoename fors omhoog 12 Richard (1986) «A reappraisal Financing Social Security» Public Finance a Democratic Society Vol New York Press Economische VASTE BIJDRAGEVOET 500 000 142 876 netto 250 56 48 42 VAST 30 200 900 600 71 77 83 MUSGRAVE REGEL 852 692 574 28 32 320 080
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in the United States
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282-Case-Study_EUBS_IMH_US_16122015_Luigjes_Vandenbroucke
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment United States – Background paper Chris Luigjes & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: C F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on US insurance cooperation between federal government assistance divided state-operated programmes block grants federally designed food Transversal are implemented At first sight concerns institutional seem limited But several reforms altered cost-sharing arrangements social led stricter minimum requirements state-run Therefore would mistake overlook role system Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 States1 thank Burt Barnow O’Leary very useful exchanges Georg Fischer comments List abbreviations ABAWD Able Bodied Adults without Dependents AFDC Aid Families with Dependent Children BBCE Broad-Based Categorical Eligibility BCR Cost Ratio DHHS Department Health Human Services DOL –Department EB Extended Compensation EmB Emergency ESAA Employment Service Administration Account EUC08 programme 2008 ITA Individual Training FUTA Federal Tax Act MoE Maintenance Effort PRWORA Personal Responsibility Work Opportunity Reconciliation SA SFAG State Family Grant SNAP Supplemental Nutrition Programme E&T SSA Security TANF Temporary Needy UI DA (FNS) Agriculture (Food Service) USP Unified Plan WDB Workforce Development Board WIA Investment WIB Boards WIOA Innovation Introduction Two actors dominate unemployment: The have large amount autonomy just implementation benefit systems also creation sub-state governance administration As consequence American schemes different their set-up than most other cases we examine Its (UI) federal-state relatively low generosity scheme its multiple distinguishing features relative Furthermore does single unified (SA); instead multitude residual services two important SA-related schemes: (TANF) (SNAP) significant concerning design basic parameters such levels more centralised still involves various Finally from those ’workforce development’ overarches both unemployed employed jobseekers links at level 3 individuals specific (although some exceptions do exist) considerable leeway workforce development even charge development-governance Because mechanisms control possible exception Canada often exerts influence through conditional funding However generally remain own legislation (and therefore forced laws) focus strongly administrative conditions rather actual behaviour result might less prominent view perhaps reinforced which makes fiscal impact salient entirely correct however below will show an driver reform 4 somewhat like Austrian scheme: laid down state So constituent parts federation they adopted unlike contribute costs cooperative Cf Table division labour Division governments Source: 2013: 1-2 Ensure conformity substantial compliance law regulations rules operations Determine operation methods directly administer fund provide money proper efficient Take claims determine eligibility insure timely payment workers Set broad overall policy monitor performance technical necessary employer liability assess collect contributions Hold invest all trust until drawn compensation three four five six
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in Switzerland
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281-Case-Study_EUBS_IMH_Switzerland_16122015_Luigjes_Vandenbroucke
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment Switzerland – Background paper Chris Luigjes & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: C F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on Swiss insurance regulated federal government thereof implemented cantonal offices Minimum requirements monitoring system were introduced ensure these focused caseloads Furthermore attempted harmonise social assistance top-down efforts dropped favour non-binding inter-cantonal guidelines In short reforms borne out concerns often rejected or altered cantons defended their autonomy Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 Switzerland1 thank Guiliano Bonoli Cyrielle Champion very useful exchanges extensive comments our drafts List Abbreviations AC Fonds de compensation l’assurance-chômage (unemployment fund) ALMP Policy AVIG/LACI Arbeitsversicherungsgesetz/Loi sur l’assurance Chomage (Federal Act Obligatory Insurance Insolvency Compensation) MAMAC Medizinisch‐Arbeitsmarktliche Assesments mit Case Management (inter-agency collaboration pilot project) PES Public Employment Services RAV/ORP Regionalen Arbeitsvermittlungszentren/offices régionaux placement (Regional employment offices) SA SI Supplément d’intégration (integration supplement SA) SODK/CDAS Konferenz der kantonalen Sozialdirektorinnen und Sozialdirektoren/ Conférence des directrices et directeurs cantonaux affaires sociales (inter-cantonal association ministries) SKOS/CSIAS Schweizerische für Sozialhilfe/Conférence suisse institutions d’action sociale (Swiss Conference Assistance) SMI minimal UA UI Introduction interesting subject at hand due combination factors First all characterised significant political decentralisation involves three levels government: level municipalities Secondly are amongst highest OECD terms net replacement rates other words if combined with long duration high accessibility probable labour market governance will confronted substantial measure both individual institutional issues Finally somewhat resembles German opted sustain face same dilemmas Germany opt more control protection governed unique (Bertozzi Ross 2008 p 122) its brand federalism encompasses major executive role 26 regions ‘cantons’ relatively generous also heavily private (for-profit non-profit) agencies Some argue two features inhibits formulation coherent strategy “some categories non-working individuals […] catered regimes obeying different masters” Thirdly akin Anglo-Saxon archetype than continental characterises most neighbouring countries The type shares characteristics US counterparts (Obinger Armingeon Bertozzi 2005 263) interplay between state Obinger al note forces have decisive shaping policy: 1) unifying centralizing which formed challenges 19th 20th century; 2) cooperation 3 municipal administrations context weak central state; 3) force diversity decentralization “stemming from competencies resources polities politics policies” These influential It could said four key principle sanctioned legislate policy area no explicit constitutional competence Every takeover new requires direct democratic parliamentary approval Second differentiates substantially region tax public services contrary Austrian Third prerogative levy taxes periodic parliament voters always granted temporary basis creates bias towards ‘lean’ reflecting what called ‘the federalism’ reliant administration systems implementing programmes pp 266-267) Not included list probably distinguishing influence institutionalization democracy through referenda Direct essentially functions “strengthen power veto available constituent units” 270) preserves promotes regional combines some benefit schemes strong an (both for-profit regulates old-age pensions sickness invalidity insurances maternity leave child completely organised insurers play large federally especially when comes (Duell Tergeist Bazant Cimper 2010 81) “However although main legislative regulatory authority over finances respective make considerable they given set up varying implementation mechanisms Thus there nationally-unified since free choice means reach goals national level” 38) design financing left So fragmented actors responsibilities multiple Then unlike Dismissal limited exposing business cycle Immigrant workers time functioned reserve perceived success WWII until 1990s crisis broke point led many (attempted) revisions rising resulted renewed focus changed nature various security tried prevent dumping According areas relied contributed fragmentation (i e 4 started promote multi-level coordination early 2000s (Champion Pisoni 2014 15) reduce practice initiatives experimentation several types 5 experienced genesis scheme everything do special administrated financed 38 funds (Caisses chômage) obligatory 1982 Each canton own fund 12 privately partners overseen Ministry economy organisation can vary slightly “the rather precise rules granting fixed law corresponding ordinance” 53) constellation reflection historical developments first had already created century (tripartite result legislation (private) local action therefore dispersed heterogeneous delayed current factors: initial absence jurisdiction feedback arrangements lack will” 276) Only after WWI general strike did pressure intervention increase By then beginning along lines Ghent anchored provide subsidies standards 1924 seen gradual step direction involvement less homogenous today would prove inadequate Great Depression sparked round debate See Articles 77-78 AVIG Article 114 Constitution 1947 decades intense confederation adopted amendment empowered enact Federal followed 1951 institutionalised existing obligated them adhere However voluntary never gained great importance 283) oil shocks 1970s kick-started wave (provisional) yet create Compensation (AVIG/LACI) name suggests “enacted statute procedural substantive law” 135) additional regulations dominant Since undergone economic recession notably 1995 2003 2011 characterise inherent status quo They blocked development shielded austerity And so retrenchment during either watered down coupled 288-289) reform possible compromise; generosity toned little return 6 measures (ALMPs) extension maximum impact federalist structure Popular protest opposition against slashing hold latter incentive agree spill 291) Further 3rd 4th revision discussed detail later below All employees nowadays covered designed Despite existence Denmark we classify federalised administratively decentralised devolved primarily contributions fiscal burden equally divided employers amount 90% total while rest 52-53) (see Table revenues collected (Fonds AC) ALMPs job centres) managed ministry fully under 1a risks 2-5 22 7 27 Duell 88 200 daily allowances reflect regime people who exempt receive 90 Financial (AC) Source http://www espace-emploi ch/ueberuns/arbeitslosenversicherung/ 2013 Millions CHF % Contributions insured 6633 91 6% 6457 5% participation Confederation 454 3% 449 4% 151 1% 149 five six
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in Germany
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280Case-Study_EUBS_IMH_Germany_24032017_Luigjes_Vandenbroucke
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment Germany – Background paper Chris Luigjes & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: C F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on Responsibilities German are divided between federal government Public Employment Services (PES) local level with supervisory role regional The system relatively centralised result reforms aimed at mitigating institutional increasing divergence insurance social assistance caseloads Specifically these created new scheme more tightly regulated placed responsibilities one-stop-shops operated jointly PES municipalities Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 Germany1 thank Regina Konle-Seidl Werner Eichhorst very useful exchanges extensive comments our drafts List Abbreviations ALG I Arbeitslosenversicherung often referred Arbeitslosengeld (unemployment insurance) II Grundsicherung für Arbeitsuchende (social assistance) ARGEn Arbeitsgemeinschaften (pre-reform joint one-stop shops; despite current Gemeinsame Einrichtungen still ARGEn) BA Bundesagentur Arbeit (federal PES) BMAS Bundesministerium und Soziales (German Federal Ministry Affairs) SA SGB Zweites Sozialgezetsbuch (legislation governing II) III Drittes I) UI Insurance Introduction federation which However always involves several important actors: semi-independent (Bundesagentur or BA) regions Heterogeneity practices instances were among contributing factors leading up Hartz IV experience followed make an interesting Before 2002-2005 had multiple employment-related benefit schemes administered different levels More importantly those rested hands set-up akin Switzerland Austria In face similar challenges (a dichotomy heterogeneity performance) opted (SA) combined (into became centrally financed changes (UI) modest remained fully governance beneficiaries underwent introduced shops central authorities side-by-side It consortia subject subsequent issues arose constitutional also practical nature unique feature model parallel have out Starting policy experiment so-called Optionskommunen since become embedded legislation thereby creating three types 3 perform services: offices Notwithstanding could argued most all cases As explained synthesis report we distinction ‘principal agent problems’ expression situations two political constituencies involved; if actors involved lower do principal-agent problems Our ‘principal-agent relation’ can questioned institution such (BA): ‘agent’ self-governing partners ‘principal’ ‘principal-agent’ terminology used recognize validity criticism2; corroborated typology developed Mabbett Bolderson who argue multi-level prevails relationships governments administering institutions security rather than simple (Mabbett 1998) Nevertheless context want maintain involving non-political (including latter some extent ‘principals’) follow-up will return question indebted point 4 (Arbeitslosenversicherung federally legislated implemented Its replacement rates vary 60% 67% previous net wage depending whether beneficiary children maximum duration years Jobless workers able available actively seeking employment insured minimum twelve months two-year period eligible 5 strictness eligibility criteria average compared other OECD countries (see Figure 1) There reasons this; hand there comparatively strict availability requirements suitable work job search monitoring On relaxed sanctioning regime 2) See paragraphs 89 129 149-154 118-121 147-148 155-160 Overall Source: Langenbucher p 27 Strictness codified (SGB III) employer employee contributions 6 administration disbursement operates 178 over 773 branches overseen 10 directorates Much like its Austrian counterpart at-arm’s-length agency ministry 7 responsibility operations lies management board (Vorstand) monitored tripartite (Verwaltungsrat) Management committees supervise 341-349 regulations amounts how they collected when paid Paragraphs 363-365 determine funding comes from level; deficit covered (Ebbinghaus 2007 pp 35-36) sections chapter 11 0 Average 8 cases6 inform misconduct left untouched sole legislative authority because no meaningful autonomy determining parameters regard sensu stricto neither decentralised nor delegated analytical grid paragraph 374 becomes clear Table structural differences across Länder Unfortunately data per municipality region readily quite large making probable indeed size Since both entails redistribution EU Force Survey NUTS own calculations 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 9 98 13 12 Standard deviation 92 05 32 26 94 43 Coefficient variation 45 50 56 49 44 42 36 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 08 07 16 91 09 03 65 33 21 39 35 34 four five six
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in Denmark
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment Denmark – Background paper Chris Luigjes & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: C F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on There are two principal actors Danish unemployment: central government municipalities insurance funds regional governments have less important role Concern institutional led several reforms municipal system resulting increasingly monitoring complicated financing method The trade-off between complexity controls need local flexibility source ongoing reform efforts Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; social assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 Denmark1 thank Bodil Damgaard Thomas Bredgaard Michael Rosholm very useful exchanges These councils tripartite institutions which public authorities partners meet discuss both implementation thereof were introduced other levels well cf infra 3 employment regions distinct from labour market councils; they act transmission level Cf their precise List Abbreviations PES Public Employment Services SA UI Insurance Introduction can characterised fully municipalised decentralisation Due combination large fact still bears substantial part budgetary impact assistance (SA) (UI) extensive experience with performance management Furthermore undergone many changes unemployment; since most these reactions what seen relevant subject at hand Contrary cases examined study federation However multi-layered four play key role: All had some point or another major design implementing Historically benefit regime centralised responsibility included includes extent trade unions administered (co-)financed (Arbejdsløshedskassen) disbursed delivered services insured unemployed It regulated scheme monitored while charge administration Reforms 1994 reshuffled responsibilities altered size even new player: Currently (co-)finances schemes finances regions3 sets out broad targets set up reimbursement model through influences behaviour become all administer link although formal shrinking also lost reshuffling Landmark include 2007 resizing introduction jobcentres They 2009 complete municipalisation became beneficiaries implemented co-financed contingent being line developments accompanied every representatives could monitor share undergoing again aimed changing 4 replacement rates historically among highest Europe currently remain same 90% say there (generosity of) remains politically controversial duration From until 2003 succession shortened eligibility period seven years;5 2011 further reduced maximum years three-year One year enough requalify entire under fire because short(ened) combined means-tested results individuals who ‘fall out’ system: people exhaust claim suffer great loss income when do qualify In 2014 special commission Dagpenge Kommissionen) created address issues recently published findings now considered 6 Shortening consequences sense earlier strategy (see section UI) Capped DKK 815 per day 5 Not change first mandatory; ended ‘passive period’ altogether (Andersen Svarer p 12) An interesting proposal greater incentives take work Working short spells will either extend create record Related proposes couple ‘break’ days during would excluded payments (Dagpengekommissionen 2015) scores higher criteria average study; strictness relates mostly availability requirements sanctions repeat offenders Figure Error! Reference found ) strict likely high strong focus crucial its flexicurity Overall Source: Langenbucher 27 involvement Trade manage disburse Workers must apply fund choice initiate coverage Thus contrast (with exception Switzerland) directly controlled (agency) Yet formally approved 7 form Ministers Pensions oversees conduct 8 legislation Act governing 9 sensu stricto contrary Swiss (and affiliated unions) an (implementation) Their throughout successive concern described sections For suffices least See chapter chapters 14-15 Other acts Organisation Support Efforts deals different governance Measures predominantly Strictness financed three sources: contributions (paid members funds) used finance costs 10 After weeks municipality starts contribute 50% 100% cost individual care Table 1) 11 initial four-week government’s 12 (76-78) reforming adjustment contribution more discussion 0 Average cases7 Municipal after Chapter (82 a) Default 70% clients participating (Chapters Measures) job/activation offer (Chapter 16 started time five six
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in Canada
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment Canada – Background paper Chris Luigjes Donna Wood & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: C D F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on Responsibilities Canadian are divided between federal government provinces The insurance social assistance all caseloads Provincial responsibilities loosely regulated bilateral agreements with Even though system generates institutional does seem major concern characterised high level provincial autonomy Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 List Abbreviations AFDC Aid Families Dependent Children ALMP Policy CAP Plan CEIC Employment Insurance CJG Job Grant CHST Health Transfer CHT CRF Consolidated Revenue Fund CST EAS Services EBSM Support Measures EI EIA Act EIOA Operating Account EIR Regulations FPFA Federal-Provincial Fiscal Arrangements JFA Agreements LMA Agreement LMDA Development MAR Monitoring Assessment Report MISWAA Task Force Modernizing Income Security Working Age Adults P/T Provincial/territorial PES Public TANF Temporary needy UI WITC Tax Credit Introduction federation relevant subject at hand Its ten three territories (from here referred provinces) play significant role its It classified politically decentralised (Mosley 2011 p 9) have shifted levels throughout modern history Starting from 1867 constitution dominant player changed after First World War again before during Second when initiated (UI) scheme included employment services However retained responsibility (SA) training albeit different forms through time Changes 1990s marked start political decentralisation effort where transferred (but benefits) granting them considerable flexibility leeway designing implementing become funding management pan-Canadian aspects while still retaining some direct delivery (for Aboriginal youth disabled programs) current brand federalism policy area reminiscent US type providing (block grant or agreement-based) provincially designed implemented programmes mechanisms labour market broadly similar: tying conditions dollars Before several 3 other areas already operated implementation Federal spending power always an important avenue influence even which originally over creeping (especially closely linked domains education workforce development activation) drivers changes division shifts since towards more scales down both transfers 1996 reinforced structure sections will competences concerning benefit schemes SA beneficiaries culminate institutionalisation (institutional) followed analytical grid conclusion 4 undergone balance rather modes (Banting 2005) fundamental sensu stricto 1940s enacted In order understand note how special circumstances were allowed take constitutional action do so Constitutional change preceded years federal-provincial disputes about rising relief costs Great Depression Only backdrop advent involvement reign new prime minister climate ready completely (Struthers 1983) did then went reforms most importantly transformation into (EI) response turn result 1971 expanded coverage dramatically final now rests tripartite (CEIC) (EIA) (EIR) act governs two components EI: passive income transfer well so-called (EBSMs) consisting section covers part contribution-based pays relative insurable working period previous earnings capped yearly maximum rate approximately 55% disbursed weekly nature commission stems 1941 decided programme insulated electoral whims pressures placed under autonomous 1977 chair taken deputy partner diminished; “the effect expropriated program” (Pal 1988) Also applicable less are: (Fishing) (EIR (Fishing)) Insurable Earnings Collection Premiums defined IV V See 14 I 5 Canada’s subdivided 58 economic regions total 6 9 must noted extension very rare indeed contrary extensions recent aftermath 2008 financial crisis Counter-intuitively federally rates equal everyone required qualifying differs per region5 (Medow 2011; Léonard 2014) left-over based regional rate; higher shorter duration generally 52 weeks can extended 104 exceptional also partially (Table 6) Finally affects they calculated 22 highest individual; amount paid used determined 5) There rationales differentiation idea ‘best-paid weeks’ rationale behind calculation best-paid “reduce disincentives accepting available work prior applying (Department Finance 2012 148; 2013 pp 6-7) way workers loose connection adversely affected possible future (more) poorly determination many best account dependent upon local eligibility criteria words (which entails claimants) increased accessibility eased durations prolonged lower second logic clear-cut than first 7 theory generosity counter-cyclical due structural heterogeneous performance among 7) likely function inter-regional redistribution mechanism Andreas Pollack finds that: business cycle effects unique features [Canadian] small compared resulting follows design” (Pollack 36) 8 Interestingly enough criticism equitable Much opposition Toronto-based Mowat Centre whose contributors argue good indicator accurately assess respond needs (Choudhry Pal Medow Day Winer 2011) rules disadvantage unemployed living Ontario Another ratios would retard migration there seems little empirical evidence claim (Day Although number without consequence weeks-system could promotes perpetuates who year (Mowat 8) 2013: 233-235 benefit-to-contribution III 10 complete overview standards out (EIOA) fully financed employer (60%) employee (40%) contributions contribution employers employees (Léonard 2014 14-15) Other differences include protection legislation Table appendix shows heterogeneity governments exert these setting ‘employment standards’ competence includes determining grounds termination anti-discrimination regulating dispute settlements etc practice relatively homogeneous exception Quebec (McMillan 1) Besides job multitude factors Nonetheless funds interesting size evolution beneficiaries-to-unemployed ratio describes (previously UI) caseload early stood above 70% (Lin 1998 42; Van den Berg Parent Masi 2004 29) currently decreased below 40% (Canada 2015) largest drop coincided reforming mid-1990s no surprise given fact aimed reduction costs; extent either individual (in requirements rule individuals out) relevance perhaps contributed limited prevent EI-beneficiaries (cf infra) Despite drops lowest scores regard overall strictness (Figure 11 regime strict comes demands mobility sanctions voluntarily leaving one’s relaxed monitoring availability ALMPs 2) might low replacement Entitlement Figure Overall Source: Langenbucher 27 Strictness 0 Average cases8 Welfare often “has maintained provides authority extend grants create programs matters exclusive jurisdiction” (Telford 15) had Since 1960s (CAP) redefined continued until 1995 Under (e g child care activity projects) shared equally receiving their own meaning spend others (Gauthier posed those (Canadian Association Workers 43) long standing cost-sharing replaced block-grant (CHST) consolidated health postsecondary unilateral move introduced state expansion: single provided opportunity expand Combined starkly increasing 1980s budgetary impact grew larger responded putting cap eventually altogether Transforming seen clear example reaction hazard: (and are) able design enabled increase 50% “The block fund territorial post-secondary services” cut $2 billion $29 old agreement entailed condition SA12: provide residency All scrapped financing tenable retain allocation formula distribution gradual indexation GDP growth Fears drastically efforts longer matched dollar 12 apply Here we see parallel (AFDC) (TANF) instances abolished favour block-grants Furthermore newly historical subnational patterns Moreover transformations ability manipulate risk insured CHST: stricter American mandatory AFDC-TANF introduction perceived provinces’ splitting up (CHT) (CST) 13 encompasses just meant cover line (FPFA) regulates sole criterion “that person live province territory minimum becoming eligible receive assistance” “Since name associated gives citizens illusion money being spent particular be” 33) evenly distributed capita basis automatically grows 3% every 15 method 2007 16 Preceding shift further eliminates possibility Provinces ‘insured risk’ mean however accountability issues 24-24 24 3-24 61 25 come across actually monitored requirement 2014-2015 budget $12 (Nadeau 3) As mentioned before: original pre-CHST resulted complicated became increasingly complex: pre-2007 sources: cash tax capacity scale back taxation step enhance precisely scaled equalization maintain poorer complexity what led 17 2010 183 000 cases vs 671 190 (Wood 2011a) enjoy almost control wish utilise pose entitlement downside Where once covered 50 cent Parliamentary Budget Officer 2010/11 2025/26 (Parliamentary institutionalised go deeper measures decrease) conditionality When put place 1940 anticipated ‘wither away’ occurred twice Every basic vary “basic cost food shelter clothing personal household items additional usually age disability transitional aims help lessen transition employment” 20) needs-tested themselves determine sources assets deducted exempted Additionally Generally applicants undergo administrative test program administered municipalities employable jobseekers); entirely managed civil servants (National Council 1-1) Based latest report National cancelled varied $9 593 $3 773 median $7 277 inadequate terms national low-income 2-1) Post-tax incomes claimants (WITC) varying regulations remains unclear interact ix) active somewhat diffuse types tend associate ‘activation turn’ Guiliano Bonoli argues: genesis such lies post-war strong focus ‘upskilling’ (2011 323) Ever Constitution But component ensuing dominance post-1940 created tensions because overlap especially adult provider thus forth contested contentious market-related During 1950s 60s developed specific target groups same started gaining UI-beneficiaries Klassen 5-6) form shared-cost diminished unilaterally stop late opting purchasing model institutions 2009 255) By mid-1980s oversaw 500 offices 1986 Jobs Strategy neediest clients (Fisher et al 2006 100-101) doing community agents (local provincial) introduce systems ‘workforce development’ 18 Specifically issue got pressing point view) downturns urgent limiting push reform compounded province-building ‘Workforce term goes beyond incorporate wider set activities including immigrant integration security human capital formation measures” 2009; Bramwell refers extends employed sense broader These developments combined retreat fiscal reasons 1990 fragmented patchwork particularly resolved acquire manpower ensure supports Quebeckers coherent view effective needed realise governance substance attempt permanently re-align attempts ultimately failed popular 19 near-death experience October referendum whether should independent main reason Ottawa offered devolve place: demonstrate flexible agreed Quebec’s long-standing position hence proved watershed respect Due resorted “para-constitutional engineering” (Poirier 2003) Decentralisation took right activate train People initial (Labour LMDAs) negotiated outlined primarily concerned process stretched Yukon last jurisdiction sign 20 mode prominent prolific: outside LMDAs entered disadvantaged (including recipients vulnerable people LMAs older workers) reaching 49 Of differ legal base (such EIA) sanctioned ministerial approval focused funding; ensuring evaluation priorities; similarity service provision country; delivering programming 14) came Meech Lake Charlottetown Accords encompassed much (Cameron Simeon 2002 55) Union Framework bring coherence accountability) achieve goals Devolved involved staff Some initially chose co-managed arrangements deliver 21 pilot projects run reshape severely leading commentators qualify “deeply flawed public policy” (Mendelson Zon 10) sudden radical side end date indicated wished make adjustments undertook series consultations March lapsed announced prolong nor renegotiate deals Instead wanted (CJG) re-orient away directly forcing match large extra hard stance (JFAs) bilateralism next subsections non respectively latter subsection full consequences JFAs yet (Employment Measures) mainly devolved along documents ministry Human Resources Skills HRDSC) identifies ALMPs: (EBs) (SMs) constituted consolidation vast range reduce expenditure EBs ‘targeted wage subsidies targeted supplements self-employment creation partnerships skills SMs innovation’ 18) jobless workers’; intensive delivered non-EI 210) Measure descriptions 210 Targeted Wage Subsidies assist participants obtain on-the-job toward wages encourages hire whom normally absence subsidy Supplements encourage persons accept offering incentives offers similar measure—Return Work Supplement—to expenses returning tools office materials clothing) Creation Partnerships opportunities gain lead ongoing Activities develop economy helps giving enables select arrange pay Self-Employment planning advice EI-eligible intended stages organizations enable counselling search job-finding clubs placement follow-up associations communities improve deal resource implement force involve developing plans strategies adjustment Research Innovation identify better ways helping prepare keep productive Funds carry demonstration purpose four five six
Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment in Belgium
1 Institutional moral hazard in the multi-tiered regulation of unemployment Belgium – Background paper Kim Lievens & Frank Vandenbroucke December 2015 This document reflects views only authors and European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may made information contained therein Please refer to this as follows: K F (2015) support ‘Institutional Moral Hazard Multi-tiered Regulation Unemployment Social Assistance Benefits Activation – A summary eight country case studies’ Abstract has been written preparation a research project funded by (on Feasibility Added Value Benefit Scheme contract VC/2015/0006) adds detailed analysis following deliverable project: studies; but it was not We concept ‘institutional hazard’ analyse intergovernmental relations within welfare states specifically domain unemployment-related benefits related activation policies (the ‘regulation unemployment’) is one separate studies focuses on The Belgian insurance system represented classic example institutional hazard: federally financed while regions were charge did have inherent incentives do so effectively possible To mitigate situation federal regional governments concluded cooperation agreement 2003 which introduced minimum requirements beneficiaries constitutional reform pushes existing logic devolution even further retained Keywords: hazard; states; relations; insurance; social assistance; Active Labour Market Policies; activation; policy; 2 Belgium1 thank Jan Vanthuyne Tom Bevers extensive very useful exchanges List Abbreviations ALMPs Policies HVW Hulpkas voor Werkloosheidsuitkeringen (public fund) OCMW/CPAS Openbaar Centrum Maatschappelijk Welzijn/ Centres Publics d’Aide Sociale (municipal centre SA) PES Public Employment Services RMI/DIS law … recht op maatschappelijke integratie/droit à l’intégration sociale (law ‘the right integration’) RVA/ONEM Rijksdienst Arbeidsvoorziening/Office National de l’Emploi (federal PES) RWB Regionale Werkloosheidsbureaus (offices at district level) SA UI Insurance VDAB Vlaamse Dienst Beroepsopleiding en Arbeidsbemiddeling (Flemish Introduction multi-layered Over course several decades series reforms devolved ever more powers authorities On hand level holds important competences with regard functioning labour market particular field security legislation (including benefits) other also wide regarding market-related issues such organisation (ALMPs) matching demand supply through (regional) public employment services After complex negotiations between government three (and parallel many rounds discussion partners) cooperative framework follow-up unemployed formally agreed 2004 different levels In 2013 new Cooperation Agreement negotiated latter will last specific kind; from onwards Belgium’s architecture changes context round so-called Sixth State Reform part evolution same challenges policy inspired Agreements; devolves political responsibility individuals living means-tested completely Thus we enter era consequences discussed sections 3 an exclusive competence Belgium: duration eligibility criteria are solely determined Trade unions play role practical administration intermediaries individual branch managed Arbeidsvoorziening (RVA)/Office (ONEM) main implementation i e deciding entitlement claimants determining their issuing payment orders bodies addition monitors makes sure violations prevented they occur sanctioned operates via 30 offices (Regionale or RWB; order avoid confusion Regions translate ‘regionale’ here ‘district’) process files decide done (uitbetalingsorganismen) fund (Hulpkas HVW) auxiliary funds linked trade get compensation costs based formula takes into account number cases Apart appeal disputes no influence whatsoever decision granting depends upon (VDAB FOREM Actiris ADG) (de Deken 2007) Figure dotted lines channels over exchanged Bruxelles Formation Arbeitsamt) exchange crucial assist finding job organise training programmes (failing take offer participate programme can reason suspending 4 Institutions actors Source: 2007 VDAB: Flemish Region Dutch-speaking inhabitants Brussels; RDBB: office Formation: institution overseeing vocational French-speaking BGDA-ORBEM (now called Actiris): Brussels Region; FOREM: Walloon (C: search assistance (FOREM Consultation F: Formation)); Arbeitsamt: German-speaking population eastern districts Hoge Raad Werkgelegenheid: advisory coordinating among Regions; FOD Werkgelegenheid Arbeid Sociaal Overleg: Federal Service Dialogue; RVA/ONEM: Office; RWB: offices; PWA: local agencies; ACV: Christian union (auxiliary body); ABVV: socialist ACLVB: liberal HVW: body; FSO: body redundancy payments (results under RVA/ONEM) mere fact person subject scheme salaried persons does give concerned must prove sufficient worked days equivalent during reference period some conditions met normative remains competence; led power respect countries two respects First principle unlimited Second unrelated load incorporates inactive who would entitled proper (long-term) invalidity early retirement pension Consequently comparatively big (see Table 4) general high certainly financially household medium- long-term sense somewhat resembles Austrian UA (in principle) fairly low generosity 5 notion ‘unlimited duration’ needs qualification though counts stipulate implies obligations: searching accepting ‘adequate offers’ being ready cooperate Individuals seen fail these obligations years article 80 benefit exclude if considered ‘abnormally long’ 1990s relatively lost With hindsight mechanism said rather brutal its (exclusion often without prior warning should look work) highly selective (it applied sub-category mainly women) effective terms (since incorporated strategy) Article replaced broader scope covers all initially restricted under-50s) nuanced application (with gradual sanctions) preventative than punitive effect critical note might say deployed still reach out (or least sufficiently) ‘stock’ Hence reality replacing art mechanisms sanctions control changed much overall strictness moderate (Figure 2) due relaxed availability suitable work combined strong reliance It however nature Overall Langenbucher p 27 6 Strictness 0 Average 8 cases7 leefloon/revenue d’intégration sociale) plays residual Belgium; budgets caseload marginal (compared unemployment) Those qualify up now fall back concerning municipal discretionary municipalities reflected differences approach laws rules conditionality measures versus supply-driven external partners (Hermans 2005) budgetary roughly formulated starting 50/50 division These administered (Openbare Centra Welzijn OMCW/Centres CPAS) centres run incomes members depend status means-test applies types income claimant: transfers real estate alimentation earned spouse parents (as long young claimant family allowance) children patrimony applicant reduced ‘abnormal way’ past five Already since 1980s3 features clear-cut distinction funding administrative management sanctioning when meet make them eligible employment) another (but effort Special Law August 1980 laggard actual shift passive occurred late systematic conforming 1997 guidelines Strategy implemented By time had created considerable tensions governance culminating departure Before there ‘preventative’ attempt activate entrants across regions; ‘curative’ (activating stock unemployed) disparate Conference September paved way change basic principles laid down April goal better coordinate instruments (counselling training) recipients rights rebalanced Within intensified guidance provided annual maximum contribution €24 million allocated according distribution key points listed 9 Main Communities active monitoring intensify unemployed: For inflow unemployment: before sixth month people (< age 25) 12th adult (≥ b point received mentioned a: months letter c where necessary soon sets own assess efforts jobseekers thus longer rely data (transmissions; cf infra) ongoing actions disrupt counselling targets full (meaning after full-time studies) Data ICT-based both directions doing burden minimised provide inter alia communication of: Information contacted ii outflow iii exemptions registration jobseeker Job offers four six