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Samenvatting Activering†en†bijstand†na†de†staatshervorming∫†buitenlandse lessen¨†uitdagingen†en†kansen Frank Vandenbroucke Universiteitshoogleraar Universiteit van Amsterdam en houder de leerstoel Herman Deleeck – Antwerpen Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Chris Luigjes Junior onderzoeker Faculteit der Maatschappij- gedragswetenschappen Kim Lievens KU Leuven Economie Volwassenen zonder werk die niet arbeidsongeschikt zijn vallen in België terug op werkloosheid of bijstand De federale overheid financiert terwijl financiering gedeeld wordt tussen lokale besturen verhouding het aantal bijstandsgerechtigden werklozen is voorbije decennia grondig gewijzigd Tijdens 15 jaar veranderde ook architectuur beleid In periode 2002-2004 kwam activering sterker voorgrond Enerzijds werd een strak federaal beleidskader betreffende regionale activeringsbeleid vastgelegd Anderzijds agenda met gedefinieerde instrumenten maar relatief vaag omschreven normatief kader dat veel vrijheid liet 2015 hevelde zesde staatshervorming bevoegdheid over arbeidsmarktbegeleiding rechthebbenden (equivalent) leefloon naar gewesten ervan gedeelde verantwoordelijkheid bestuursniveau bleef Tegelijkertijd activeringsbevoegdheid inzake groot deel reeds bij lag helemaal overgeheveld wel volledig vraag hoe deze nieuwe bevoegdheden zullen omgaan: ze andere manier aansturen en/of ondersteunen dan vandaag geval is? Deze knoopt aan bekende uitdagingen ‘gedecentraliseerd beleid’ zich stellen landen gelaagd bestuur We onderzoeken daarom dynamiek bevoegdheidsverdeling enkele Europese Inhoudsopgave 40 OCMW

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40 years of social assistance in Belgium by Marjolijn De Wilde Bea Cantillon Frank Vandenbroucke en Maria Bie This year Belgium’s public centres for welfare are celebrating their 40th birthday and a number other researchers decided to mark the occasion writing book about trends evolutions they have observed within these Among recommendations authors call partial automation practice The 1974 marked turning point development Belgian From then on citizens with insufficient means who were unable rely supplementary allowances such as sickness benefits or jobseeker’s allowance entitled minimum income (bestaansminimum) (Openbare Centra voor Maatschappelijk Welzijn OCMWs) founded 1976 core aim guaranteeing right human dignity These also tasked paying called bestaansminimum which was replaced leefloon 2002 new Years Social Assistance (Dutch: jaar OCMW bijstand) published ACCO takes closer look at assistance’s evolution highlights concerns policy future Conclusions book: In early around 10 000 people received every By 2015 almost 140 receive increase can be attributed part changes itself (personalised approach increased access specific groups e g students) At same time surge reflects failure security system A growing perhaps because build up rights (because work shorter periods) not eligible certain (e immigrants school leavers) system’s conditionality has been jobseeker sanctions) Moreover this growth that an increasing recipients coming face-to-face going through problematic evolutions: 1 is weak protection primarily too low As result most families live dignified life Secondly transfer from employment remains very difficult Thirdly struggles high non-take-up: many benefit do it embarrassment administrative obstacles problems follow-up procedures It more becoming dependent inadequate 2 principle payment goes hand-in-hand intensive individual carried out workers allowed amount discretion order offer tailor-made line client’s needs capacities If level personal high-quality offered ever-increasing group will ultimately compromised 3 local governments granted substantial when comes adapted requirements Ultimately however population results decentralisation despite fact never objective (as Netherlands example) lack additional funds municipalities 4 recent decades conditions linked Conditionality help activate sense indispensable instrument However should always kept mind last safety net without nowhere else turn Policy recommendations: light above caution against referral branches They example granting living wage would allow focus important integration counselling deemed based data properly personalised Public feedback systems anonymous comparisons similar could give them insights into impact choices More generally argue favour policy-making competences using carefully considered networks Flemish authors: Sarah Carpentier Daniel Cuypers Joris Corte Filip Rynck Koen Hermans Kim Lievens Chris Luigjes Marchal Karel Neels Ides Nicaise Peter Raeymaeckers Bérénice Storms Dirk Torfs Van den Bosch Johan Vandenbussche Natascha Mechelen Wim van Oorschot Zamora Franck (ed ) ISBN 978 94 6292 724 7 // 2016 272 p 34 50 euros Further information: www acco be/40jaarOCMW

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40 jaar OCMW en bijstand Marjolijn De Wilde Bea Cantillon Frank Vandenbroucke Maria Bie (red ) Openbare Centra voor Maatschappelijk Welzijn vieren hun veertigste verjaardag Die gelegenheid grepen andere wetenschappers aan om een boek te schrijven over de tendensen evoluties binnen OCMW’s auteurs pleiten onder meer gedeeltelijke automatisering van bijstandspraktijk 1974 was sleuteljaar in ontwikkeling Belgische sociale Burgers die onvoldoende bestaansmiddelen hadden geen beroep konden doen op uitkeringen als ziekteverzekering of werkloosheidsuitkering voortaan recht bestaansminimum In 1976 werden opgericht met kerntaken het verzekeren menswaardig bestaan eveneens belast toekennen Intussen is 2002 vervangen door leefloon Het ’40 bijstand’ uitgegeven ACCO zoomt aantal naar tot vandaag schuift aandachtspunten beleidsaanbevelingen toekomst Conclusies uit boek: beginjaren ontvingen jaarlijks ongeveer 10 000 personen 2015 waren bijna 140 mensen leefloongerechtigd Deze stijging deels verklaren veranderingen zelf (individualisering aanbod verhoging toegang specifieke doelgroepen bv studenten) maar weerspiegelt ook falen verzekeringen Een groeiende groep kan er omdat ze niet staat zijn voldoende rechten bouwen (te korte periodes werk) aanmerking komen (bv migranten vroegtijdige schoolverlaters) voorwaardelijkheid verhoogd werd sancties werkloosheid) groei betekent bovendien dat leefloongerechtigden zich geconfronteerd ziet systeem problematische evoluties: 1 zwak beschermingssysteem Ten eerste leefloonbedragen meeste gezinnen laag leven leiden tweede uitstroom werk erg moeilijk verloopt derde leeflonen hoge non-take-up kampen: heel wat eigenlijk hebben uitkering ontvangen deze omwille schroom administratieve drempels problemen opvolging problematisch afhankelijk raakt dit ontoereikende 2 Leeflonen gaan principe gepaard intensieve sterk persoonlijke sociaal werkers genieten daarbij zekere vrijheid begeleiding bieden aansluit bij noden mogelijkheden cliënt Zulke kwaliteitsvolle bedreigd voorzien dient worden steeds groter wordende 3 Bijstand gaat België veel beleidsruimte lokale besturen Ruime maakt begeleidingen aangepast kunnen plaatselijke vereisten bijstandspopulatie facto gelijk decentralisatie beleid zonder (zoals Nederland) expliciete beleidsintentie extra budgetten gemeenten 4 voorbije decennia voorwaardelijk Voorwaardelijkheid activerend gerechtigden zin onmisbaar deel moet echter altijd verhouding gebracht besef laatste vangnet nergens anders terecht Beleidsaanbevelingen: Aansluitend hierboven beschreven waarschuwen doorschuiven zekerheidstakken Ze gedeelte toekenning Dit zou betekenen sociaalwerkpraktijk vooral focussen belangrijke trajectbegeleiding integratie bijkomend belangrijk bestaat basis gegevens zouden gebaat feedbacksystemen waarbij zij volledig geanonimiseerd via vergelijking gelijkaardige idee krijgen effect beleidskeuzes Meer algemeen breken lans versterking beleidsvoerend vermogen doordachte netwerking Vlaamse auteurs: Sarah Carpentier Daniel Cuypers Joris Corte Filip Rynck Koen Hermans Kim Lievens Chris Luigjes Marchal Karel Neels Ides Nicaise Peter Raeymaeckers Bérénice Storms Dirk Torfs Van den Bosch Johan Vandenbussche Natascha Mechelen Wim Oorschot Zamora Franck ISBN 978 94 6292 724 7 // 2016 272 blz 34 50 euro info: www acco be/40jaarOCMW https://docs google com/document/d/1YUyTWQ73lpsj7_9BDrk_ujizpu8FgzzRUVce_G0f2iM/edit

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264-40-Jaar-OCMW-en-bijstand_Vandenbroucke-F.-I.-G.-de-Wilde-M.-Cantillon-B.-de-Bie-M.-9-Dec-2016-Belgie-Acco.-272-p.

40 jaar OCMW en bijstand Marjolijn De Wilde – Bea Cantillon Frank Vandenbroucke Maria Bie (red ) – Acco 2016 272 p 34 50 euro ( bestellen aan 32 groep bijstandsgerechtigden is sinds 1974 sterk gegroeid gewijzigd qua samenstelling: het aandeel mannen toegenomen alsook relatieve belang van de jongeren Bovendien bijstandspopulatie verkleurd Dit heeft ongetwijfeld gezorgd voor een diversificatie in termen hun afstand tot arbeidsmarkt Voor opstap naar ‘regulier’ bestaan binnen sociale verzekeringen Daarnaast er mensen die meer duurzaam aangewezen zal blijven op materiële immateriële hulpverlening door gecumuleerd gebrek economische psychische vaardigheden om zelfstandig economisch systeem te kunnen functioneren als instituut staat vandaag dus groter gediversifieerd publiek dan wat d e wetgever ogen had stelt OCMW’s beleidsmakers extra uitdagingen waarvan aantal bod komen dit boek Inhoudsopgave : Inleiding 1 groei Natascha Van Mechelen Daniel Zamora & 2 bestaansminimum maatschappelijke integratie: laatste vangnet met grote mazen activering Daniël Cuypers Dirk Torfs 3 OCMW-praktijk: spanning tussen sociaal beleidsinstrument grondrecht Johan Vandenbussche 4 Doeltreffendheid bijstandsinkomens Bérénice Storms 5 Voorwaardelijkheid leefloon: werkbereidheidseis Sarah Marchal 6 Het gebruik discretionaire ruimte Vlaamse -medewerkers 7 Sociaal-economische trajecten Carpentier Karel den Bosch Neels 8 draagvlak ondersteuning armen Wim Oorschot Koen Hermans 9 Hoe waterdicht leefloon? Onderzoek (niet-)dekking minimumbescherming België Ides Nicaise 10 netwerken beleid: bestuurskundige analyse Filip Rynck 11 Activering tegen achtergrond staatshervorming Kim Lievens Chris Luigjes 12 Werken legitimiteit: netwerk hulpverleningsorganisaties Peter Raeymaeckers Joris Corte 13 Sociaal werk(opleidingen) OCMW: professionalisering dienstverlening Besluit: krachtlijnen uit/vragen na OCMW-dienstverlening informatie over kan u terecht bij marjolijn dewilde@uantwerpen be Bestellen (winkelprijs = euro)

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263-The-idea-of-a-European_Social_Union_Normative_Introduction_as_submitted_Dec_2016

1 The idea of a European Social Union: normative introduction FRANK VANDENBROUCKE University Amsterdam December 2016 Paper submitted for publication as an introductory chapter in: Frank Vandenbroucke Catherine Barnard Geert De Baere (eds ) A Union After the Crisis Cambridge Press forthcoming 2 Abstract We need clear-cut concept with regard to social dimension EU: not Welfare State but Why is it necessary? First monetary integration requires supranational stabilization instruments: implies risk-sharing and ‘responsibility cut’ Moreover there limit diversity models that can be accommodated in union Hence forces upon its members basic consensus on order has serve second reason why such imperative refers reconcile free movement domestic cohesion EU must become holding environment allows Member States flourishing welfare states What exactly agenda Union? depends choices These have reconnect point purpose project originally emerged uncritical way On foundational level reciprocity within between member key practical we reconsider original division labour envisaged by founding fathers which economic policy would national KEYWORDS: Union; union; solidarity; Europe 3 Introduction1 I thank Robert Jan van der Veen Helder Schutter Erik Schokkaert Chris Luigjes Ad-Willem Dashorst Maurizio Ferrera Bom comments criticism usual disclaimer applies countries aspire In all whatever their tradition or development large support core ambitions modern state: promoting general prosperity sustaining protecting vulnerable individuals supporting education However different are tax benefit systems created varying degrees success capacity stabilisation periods stress automatic stabilisers intrinsically linked protection were convinced contribute prosperous whilst leaving concerns essentially at History did prove them wrong least until mid-2000s Yet experience protracted crisis hit us question: how successful states? Both left right political spectrum despite conflicting views exact mix needed many argue crux implement kind financial governance This book inspired position: yes policies crucial they cannot isolated from longer-term develop role should play domain argument presented this Chapter state itself restoring sovereignty strictly confining also option coherent conception ‘European Union’ led started basis say contributors agree here 4 use notion ‘Social deliberately three reasons invites propose contrast rather vague ‘a Europe’ often surfaces discussions Second indicates go beyond conventional call dimension’ It assert no today coordination security rights mobile workers standards health safety workplace some directives workers’ constitute non-trivial acquis fifty years piecemeal progress developed solid legal foundation enforcing non-discrimination among citizens premised denial positive next steps build stage respond new challenge about more than ‘adding Third emphasis coincidence State: historical legacies institutions As explained below tangible solidarity those collective entities But primary organise interpersonal redistribution individual across borders; main mechanisms now needs States; refer insurance logics investment strategies will touch specific aspects may rethink application subsidiarity principle both ‘union states’ apply fundamental organising Solidarity necessitates degree convergence same harmonisation More generally practice far removed top-down one-size-fits-all approach policy-making summarised follows: systemic functions guide substantive – via objectives ways means operational definition ‘the Model’ other words cooperate explicit hence expression so conceived only desirable necessary unless drop shared 5 aspirations To make analysis leads one definitive version depending judgements brought bear ambitious less project; based conceptions justice Nor already table uncharted territory: important issues clarified An exercise clarification start sets questions existential necessity if was case sixty ago? does add EU? And implemented? Sections focus question bringing together contributions Deakin Grauwe Ji Andor Feenstra volume combined arguments elsewhere detail his contribution returns Single Act 1986: deepening internal market implied step change levels capital mobility prevent regression pan-European floor been logical corollary emerge 1990s except work My two successive developments clearly necessitate Model reservations might time Act: hand consequences unification (notably Section 2) enlargement heterogeneous set 3) these force unique well-defined put bluntly well correspond my personal debate future our model inevitably shifted part functional totally open-ended inspiration project: ambition upward each (my rendering fathers’ belief) delineates contours See F ‘The Case From Muddling Through Sense Common Purpose’ B Marin (ed Future Global (Ashgate 2015) 6 ‘theory understanding multi-tiered polity Therefore revisit legitimacy intrinsic believe compelling appeal people variety opinions intellectually incorrect politically counterproductive consider dogma present hard science justify return ideas examine whether sustained amendment deny enter realm Thus discussion starts observations addressed then ventures into answer what definitely issue informing define demarcate solidarity’: defining demarcating explain provide answers; explores reference contemporary theories distributive offer useful framework conceptualise connects underlying Schutter’s position takes granted results (which optimistic hypothesis partially vindicated) short briefly qualify conclude focuses foundations elaborate chapters (Deakin Martinsen Bekker de Buck Cerutti Pochet Degryse perspective Gutman Kornezov Lenaerts Guttiérrez-Fons) constellation happenstance: difficulty Constitution’ (using Ferrera’s description components volume) resides legacy initial fathers: Union’s competences had reader see 7 assessment current differs scholars who contributed being others (compare instance Guttiérez-Fons) just nature Treaties constellations Van Schyff points out Since proposals Policy discussed follow Vanhercke 10 Tough nuts crack (Friends Brussels 2014) available at: http://www friendsofeurope org/quality-europe/10-tough-nuts-to-crack/ [15 2016]; D Rinaldi inequalities cohesion’ Vision Summit Consortium Redesigning Ways forward (Gütersloh delorsinstitute eu/011-22215-Social-inequalities-in-Europe-the-challenge-of-convergence-and-cohesion html/ ‘Automatic Euro area Tribune Notre Jacques Delors Institute 22 September eu/011-23652-Automatic-stabilizersfor-the-Euro-area-and-the-European-social-model html [12 2016] incomplete Traditional textbook revisited ‘necessity’ partly implications twofold form fiscal (but related) therefore guidance domains feature states; generated tax-and-benefit particular unemployment link Eurozone EU’s careful goes brief chapter; essential insights Well-known theory explains benefits drawbacks terms trade-offs Members currency confronted trade-off 8 symmetry flexibility Symmetry movements output wages prices Flexibility relates wage interregional international determine country’s adjustment asymmetric shock Less flexibility: single productivity growth greater required adaptability beneficial traditional ‘adaptability’ understood mainly and/or There trade-off: shocks absorbed through transfers reduced Fiscal possible alleviate plight negative Obviously even permanent temporary reversible require readiness qualifications EMU equipped mitigate intertemporal i e smooth volatility over Smoothing business cycles possibility increase public debt downturns decrease boom budgetary common bonds achieve (or ‘structural reform’ jargon) crucially when result cycle deal efforts structural reforms They evidence suggesting biggest Automatic Analytically euro compelling; uphill battle today’s comprehensive exploration scenarios thorough fit broader developing presents favour scheme proposal because highlights 9 overall One note comes variants: could either ‘genuine’ system ‘reinsurance’ difference genuine reinsurance short-term unemployed receive fund operate lump sum trigger (based deviation past trajectory State); disbursing money (any participating receives independent rate State) Unemployment raises well-known moral hazard essence occurs person institution) risks someone else another bears costs Moral insured manipulate liability insurer incurs influencing frequency importance risk influenced behaviour choice institutional actors deliberate purely exogenous control design never excluded: inevitable extent any context (whether reinsurance) lax activation (re)employment generates obvious hazard; dismissed quality matter concern group caveat thinking aware price pay obtain pooling objective hazard: minimised respect draw lessons existing polities United Canada Germany Switzerland Austria Belgium Studying interesting conclusions eventual incorporate avoid minimise country average net beneficiary addition fight forms pooled comply minimum requirements ‘activation quality’ ‘stabilisation quality’5 That significant regulation method pursued very Reinsurance offers scope seems complicated Politically true C Institutional assistance summary eight studies (Centre Studies 2016) https://www ceps eu/system/files/SR%20No%20137%20Moral%20hazard%20in%20multi-tiered%20reg%20of%20UB pdf incomes smoothed determines insurance; generosity coverage parameters Segmented markets poorly against reduce quality; underscores problem segmentation Eurozone’s problems n3 above report published June 2015 drafted Presidents five major Institutions: commission Council Central Bank Eurogroup Parliament J Juncker Five Presidents’ Report: Completing Europe’s Economic Monetary close cooperation Tusk Dijsselbloem M Draghi Schulz’ (2015) http://ec europa eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en [30 March accepted failures made unstable fragile: lacked banking mechanism recognised President’s Europe’s Report signals acute awareness 11 organisation mutual trust rational most engage do sufficiently ‘minimum requirements’ mentioned previous paragraph create fabric sense including deliver competitiveness sound finances Exposure produced ‘discipline’ finance contrary witnessed asymmetrical divergence Relative deteriorated significantly improved thus creating huge imbalances invisible visible pursues notably increases coordinate increases: effective Wage Arguing mark departure principles Six-Pack Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure8 attempts strengthen makers one-sided account deficits surpluses organised instead around benchmark ‘golden legislative measures bundled ‘six pack’ regulations introduced 2010-2011 introduce macroeconomic surveillance Procedure Six-Pack; aims identify potential early emergence harmful correct place For see: Regulation 1173/2011 16 November 2011 enforcement [2011] OJ L 306/1; 1174/2011 excessive 306/8; 1175/2011 amending (EC) No 1466/97 strengthening positions 306/12; 1176/2011 prevention correction 306/25; 1177/2011 1467/97 speeding up clarifying implementation deficit procedure 306/33; Directive 2011/85/EU frameworks 306/41 12 rule’ linking Such golden rule moderation further acknowledge coordinated bargaining emphasises Instead encouraging decentralisation take encourage facilitate coordination; presupposes stance vis-à-vis dialogue little recent (on Bearing mind adequate long-term seen sustainability affecting nevertheless Even prominent times according Ji’s data excluded reallocation capital? container ‘high road’ placed opposition ‘low high road highly-skilled versatile training transitions low mere deregulation easy hiring firing At first sight thought irrelevant adopted pillars sustainable union: functionally equivalent long outcome apart attached certain types equally perform dimensions relegated mean counsel 13 details features impose limits diversity; promoted flexible approaches (this acquiring considerable experience; Bekker’s actual Semester wage-setting pensions) Whatever neither nor socially neutral Although remain timid illustrates growing recognition fact ‘standards markets’ combine Commission emphasised launched Pillar Rights’ initiative specifically Eurozone: communication noted established open join voluntary basis’ preliminary outline Rights mentions example fighting poverty observes ‘[i]n cases due strict eligibility duration conditions job search participation active ’ proposes following principle: ‘Action shall include requirement allow sufficient preserving incentives quick employment statement Minimum precise provides opportunity theme; well-formulated COM(2016)127 Launching Consultation (Strasbourg 14 incisive benchmarking States’ performance gives cautious welcome: ‘As restatement much overdue attempt reintegrate evolving process union’ He notes yet unclear relationship ends ‘rights’ creates expectations: perception merely replay earlier initiatives soft without frustrate expectations backlash clarify feed S ‘What follows austerity? New Deal’ Joerges ever diverse Preliminary belong side coin per se contradiction coin: recognise legitimate members’ Joerges’ view ‘[t]he threefold commitment democratic autonomy strive curtailment external effects targeted fair co-operative problem-solving likelihood favourable generation ‘we-pay-and-you-obey’ strategy management legalised’ indeed rejects escape conclusion necessary: 15 possibly Only playing card trading illusions Crouch establishing ‘political accountability goal Making Capitalism Fit Society (Polity 2013) ECJ judgment 18 2007 Laval un Partneri C-341/05 EU:C:2007:809 Integration EU28: balancing act Some transcend problematic whole holds induces downward pressure advanced spectre large-scale dumping materialised enlarged blatant illegal working exploitation occur resulting interplay lacunae absence entity Fears tourism causing tensions migration easily resolved condition opinion accept cross-border regulated undermine Free uphold particularly relevant Sweden trade unions traditionally resisted wages: considered no-go authorities applied Court Justice13 suggests unsustainable: argues predictable imposed foreign companies post14 workers: applicable respected service providers partners respective roles relation nationwide local responses Denmark reaffirm action: agreements enforced action Posting Workers Swedish Danish rules game versus upshot becomes plausible too: ‘posted worker’ employee sent employer carry Posted host temporarily integrate maintain contract home (‘sending’) posted latter entitled full equal treatment nationals access Blauberger ‘With Luxembourg … remaking face jurisprudence’ (2012) 19 Journal Public 109 International Transport Workers’ Federation Finnish Seamen’s (‘Viking’) C-438/05 EU:C:2007:772 Together Viking judgment16 services freedom establishment) however ‘predictability’ provisions Prior decisions attempted settlement contained Treaty Rome largely law deployed number techniques protect (hierarchically superior) vigour moment found ‘restriction’ breach interests back foot having defend themselves difficult 17 justification proportionality freedoms expressly competence (strikes) vacuum potentially struck down given express aspect called impossible solve problem; discusses solutions reform promising G ‘Towards Achievements Possibilities under Current Constitutional Framework’ (2014) Euroforum ‘Free Movement Labour Rights: Squaring Circle?’ (2013) Faculty Law Legal Research 23/2013 ‘How Viking/Laval conundrum resolved? Balancing social: bed dreams?’ regulatory big argued judgments Martinsen) pause Feenstra’s review Articles 49 56 TFEU directly leaves margin matters concerning Trade avail derogation According imposing imposes while refusing entrust task determining appears odds instruments (including Directives partners) used attain objectives’ Unlike Laval’s balance (the conundrum) appropriate tool provided alternative Reconciling openness Fundamentally preserve governments allowing delivery Space forbids ‘welfare tourism’ analyses Scharpf Höpner Schäfer impact four authors architecture heterogeneity lead systematically irresistibly liberalisation unchecked erosion industrial relations complex insurmountable ‘balancing act’ feasible room politics arena pessimistic probably associated meaning Caporaso Tarrow20 Justice embed transnational Polanyi’s Court’s) purposes acting arbiter (under conditions) spirit Witte21 develops subtle ‘transnational solidarity’ broad Witte accommodate satisfactory examples act; 20 Tarrow ‘Supranational Institutions Transnational Embedding Markets’ (2009) 63 Organization 593 21 Emergence (Oxford Despite especially recognized opening provision opportunities Eastern formulates inspiring scholarly fruitful re-framing classical last decades dominated debates ‘social deficit’ construct asymmetry market-making market-correcting (economic legal) powers If composite component live inherent ‘asymmetry’ ‘deficit’ weaknesses imputed Likewise instrument solution remedy weaknesses’ 23 missing good’’ 24 ‘(B)Remains day: Brexit policy’ 25 Ibid final sobering vote UK She confronts discomforting questions: difference? calls regulating employees situations remedying related Migration precarious segments shortages ‘EU Domestic let population; respond’ imbalance se: decision transition period intra-EU after 2004 austerity non-Eurozone country… Barnard’s wanted situation find resources level: promoter idea; adequacy services; translate nice inclusive With fairness wryly concludes emperor clothes’ think (as do) blame discourse Remain case: guilty passive neglect speak guided guarantee broadly hand; underpinning parcel guiding afford gap principles: clothes foregoing shows perspectives Europe: Given increasing entertaining increasingly anachronistic thesis actions informed consistent justice: obviously want submit specific: (common) resonates volume26 Developing tiered self-evident territory hope illustrate (without exhaustive pretending give answers) 26 Andrea Sangiovanni thought-provoking explicitly distinguishes applying introduces ‘reciprocity’ ‘Solidarity 36 Oxford congeniality Sangiovanni’s ‘realist’ (I borrow ‘point purpose’ him) differences pursue bridges ‘idealist’ ‘cooperative justice’ Dworkinian device purchase constraints assume consists Subsections Subsection scene sketching relatively benign hindsight philosophy defines concepts (solidarity redistribution) third difficulties encounters tries relate fourth sketches puzzle emerges conflate ‘justice’ ‘solidarity’: (one component) multifaceted narrowly share aim compensate (disadvantageous) circumstances hold responsible slight detour situate well-rehearsed incomplete: am fully citizenship shape integrated exploratory Setting scene: described ‘convergence machine’ Convergence pre-condition continuing integration: ‘output legitimacy’ simultaneous pursuit (through gradual states) Union) 2008 observe opposite: becoming unequal prepared optimistically assumed reached raising standard living later territorial policy) boost convergence; redistribute fruits remaining prerogative confined anti-discrimination legislation Admittedly encompasses areas redistributive remained firmly anchored (and slightly interpretation) cohesion: How understand ‘dual perspective’? Can solidarities)? income obligations indicated diminish confident produce fairly tune preferences Their belief opposite globalisation doomed winners losers (benign) interpretation normatively inspiration: contradicts overly how? scale Europeans improve own lives discrimination nationality Gradually patients acquired medical care residence vision? Apart agricultural limited cross-country less-developed regions funds so-called envisage normally mixtures Subsection) Historically predominantly opportunities: joining wanting needing pursuing motivated inclusion classic coping proposed besetting (a efficient Stability Mechanism (ESM) pre-established sovereign default restructuring; schemes scheme) always entail ex ante 27 initially ‘opportunity structure’ aspiration dual consequence ago future: simply co-existing models; describes interact supposed since episodes post came negotiations establishment inherently Simultaneously east tension goals dynamics convergence’ non-discriminatory controversial complexity superficial rhetorical references suffice revamp project’s able understandable ordinary embedded Normative rigorous academic Is pioneers vast 1970s? promote reduction premise ‘distributive Loosely typically distribution entitlements goods; ultimate goods well-being societies reflects society equals owe inequality elaboration egalitarian attracted attention: responsibility; boundaries apply: entertain justice?28 28 Another attention metric (‘equality what?’): address responsibility evaluation outcomes? Are ‘equality opportunity’ outcome’? Philosophical proponents equality distinction (for family background innate talents) effort talents work) Issues dominate rely solidarity? nation’s count structure thorny ‘responsibility-sensitive egalitarianism’ 1980s slipstream Rawls’ Theory 29 philosophical responsibility-sensitive egalitarianism ‘luck R Dworkin equality? Part 2: Equality resources’ (1981) Philosophy Affairs 283; Arneson ‘Equality welfare’ (1989) 77; Cohen ‘On 99 Ethics 906 influential critical E Anderson equality?’ (1999) 287 Important monographs Roemer (Harvard 1998); Fleurbaey Fairness 2008) survey literature Trannoy Atkinson Bourguignon Handbook Income Distribution (Elsevier Volume 2A 30 approach’ synonyms usage character 31 suffices combination compassion (F K Lievens ‘Wederkerigheid: niet vanzelfsprekend wel nodig’ P Janssens Voor wat hoort Naar een nieuw sociaal (De Bezige Bij 2011); ‘De actieve welvaartsstaat Een Europees perspectief’ Den Uyl Lecture december 1999 canonsociaalwerk eu/1999_actieve_welvaartstaat/1999Vandenbrouckeactievewelvaartstaat Responsibility Responsibility-sensitive justice30 benchmarks assess ‘just’ ‘unjust’ capture where locates threshold factors held compensation Traditionally cut: sickness inactivity outside covered deploy life fail achieve) intelligence socioeconomic gender origin cut hours career length try neutralise talent disadvantage origin) childcare ideally worked principled neutralised child etcetera ‘if’) anything tools straightforward outcomes-approach characteristics includes variables moves away outcomes intellectual makes bring confused 32 drawing line unchosen predicated liable objection notions unending disputes agreement location metaphysical unavoidable subject contract: human beings something like nation Often defined everything intelligence); ‘equal opportunities’ satisfied influence opportunity; fits theoretical intergenerational realised; demanding When board observation: achieving tackling context: parent generations instrumental children Inequality Be Done? 2015); OECD Together: Benefits All (OECD Publishing ‘on principles’ 33 wish referred providing definitions strand framework33 compensating Depending conceptually distinguished: Pure foreseen reasonably calculated homogeneous identical profiles) profiles expected value cashed pure Insurance Redistribution prime progressive taxation redistributes (inter alia) economically talented less-talented individuals: compensates (in part) talent; differ 34 motivation disposition ‘demanding’ Well-organised readily enlightened self-interest: expectation end everybody wins So prima facie self-interest get mixed cement higher minima maxima proportional skill embodies high-skilled low-skilled presumption admittedly tested empirically upon) easier persuade (Hooghe Verhaegen assumption book) Progressive ‘bad luck’ incorporates too extended relationships authorities: ‘inter-institutional imply (say states); triggered ‘interpersonal individuals; turn exercised theorising justice? rehearsed global logic boundaries: worse-off he born poor certainly circumstance Nevertheless intense Just ‘international reaction defence against) Rawls 35 circle: ‘our’ circle? Barry Beitz Pogge Nagel Parijs Stanford Encyclopedia See: ‘International Distributive Justice’ Goodin Pettit T Companion Contemporary Political (Blackwell 2007); entry http://plato stanford edu/entries/international-justice paper existence borders demands kick Prima convincing Borders prevented virtue happen taking advantage coercive effect people’s constraining ‘global ‘basic Subsequently ‘demoted framework’ (of thinking) ‘to toolbox’: Suppose adopt minimalist Under conversation evidently priority nations ought vanish erased peoples dissolved demoted toolbox seizing desperate halt irresistible urgently best constrained reconfigured empowered n35 p 652 (emphasis added) implementing truly conceive ‘laboratory’ basically Parijs’ inspires starting explore challenges Supranational laboratory Below ‘supranational short-cut Two Contrary sometimes resource sharing highest applications you lower done loss efficiency 37 justice38: inter-institutional ‘loss’ ideal conditions: needed; below) 39 subsidiarity; 38 Note distinguished pragmatic attitudes: unattainable attitudes) settle attainable attitudes insufficient ‘fellow feeling’ sustain 40 pension Belgian federalism Drèze interaction (Re-Bel 2009) rethinkingbelgium eu/rebel-initiative-ebooks/ebook-1-subsidiarity-interpersonal-solidarity type Durré Carpantier ‘Fiscal Growth Stimulation 80 Louvain Review observation (there justice): (sufficiently large) implemented stages every Take pay-as-you-go subdivided re-insure regional demographic hitting regions: extrapolated two-tiered vary Subsidiarity Whilst discuss response flaw (with unemployment) enhancing level; improvement touched reconsidered reformulated insure convention responsible; agent event liability); obsession desire eliminate completely (global sense) entails sake perfect correlation states: inter-state 41 Or suppose distributions: theoretical: delivers gradually unnecessary; scenario Upward slow precondition wants (applied EU) equalised abstraction relevance synchronisation non-synchronisation concrete sufficient? finally equalisation evident 5) Would leave governments? objections qualifies accepts 42 mutually exclusive flat inconsistent 43 incompatible rationale individual’s dependent fellow citizen attained preferences) implausible ready transfer X stated wit helping advantaged exist conditional acceptance deliberation forced implicit ‘Europeanised’ Basically income) depend funding Consider hardly towards Europeanised subsidiarity-based deviations contradict improving me isolate ‘redistribution’ separate function neat care…) dissociate functioning Europeanisation logically edifice edifice) trump preferences: strong (not drastic move highly ‘realistic’ carries weight notwithstanding traction debate: (‘European’) values Jointly defending life’ Habermas referring former French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin) heart 44 on-going driven strategic Open Method Coordination (OMC) Inclusion 2001 realise OMC formulated instantiating justice; inputs asked commonality constitutes rigidly Kenneth Armstrong sees constitutionalism: Next seeing upscaling recapitulated Deakin’s court-led constitutionalism prise demonstrate reconciled OMC-driven test demand explanations exercises name combating exclusion jumping-off articulated practices irreducible avoided 45 Governing Europeanization 2010) 262 ‘Sustainable ‘Open Co-ordination’ Esping-Andersen 2002) Armstrong’s Cantillon N Mechelen Goedemé Lancker protection: Clarifying Conundrum’ Marx Nelson Protection Flux (Palgrave Macmillan 46 congenial qua perceived weak vantage (contra objection) diminished rescue real Corporate example: race-to-the-bottom corporate base) supply Governments counter taxable production freely tend taxed etcetera: trends Whether reality dispute evident; empirical learn systems) setting achieved reliance level) fundamentally movement? detailed Briefly Floris […] cosmopolitan structures good sensitive preconditions reproduction structures’ 47 n21 48 Rosanvallon equilibrium forms: exchange involvement’ Equals translated Goldhammer 271 Bowles’ reciprocity: propensity similarly disposed cost Bowles collaboration Fong H Gintis Jayadev U Pagano Essays Economics (Cambridge 2012) Rosanvallon’s reciprocity48 ‘[R]eciprocity reconfiguration relational commitments Witte’s enhances non-nationals (‘transnational solidarity’) associative thereby entertains solidarity: contributory it: solidarities healthcare Giving one’s ‘need’ jeopardising ‘preconditions giving lot specified: straightforwardly Justice’s testifies (safeguarding revenue expenditure) popular support) Crucially nationality: ‘non-nationals’ denied concur Polish regular Belgium) (Belgium) circles Secondly justifies worker’s pays sustains tolerate competition contributes safeguarding ‘deal’ Cameron leaders discriminate British misguided Competition happens posting worker ‘posted’ remains exception projects fortiori inspection analysed her Elsewhere badly encompassing 50 ‘New’ Poland few limitations (since liberal regime them) relapse lose have) seem ‘old’ nervous markets; feel uneasy contracts context? negotiation old way: ‘We discriminating your come total please undermined excesses posting’ 51 representatives mature strike better (posting non-discrimination) compared uncontrollable proliferate thrive ultimately Everybody archetypal yield Pareto-inferior currently worried abuses controllable n6 bilateral Dutch government in-work non-British separated advised necessary) circle concomitant 52 adds Cameron’s non-discrimination; article ‘demands cooperating maintaining reproducing EU’ His reciprocity-argument Britons citizenship) ‘Non-discrimination (2016) Epub ahead print 53 2014 Elisabeta Dano Florin v Jobcenter Leipzig C-333/13 EU:C:2014:2358 Non-discriminatory non-active drawn delicate observers highlighted Justice53 delineate reflect touches variant exemplified denies Transferring realist position; centralised (corporate taxes wealth taxes) saga reveals (Van formulation justice) (because legitimation really absolute demote ‘instruments’ objectives? Let stylised Let’s composed rich classes class representative positions: State; better-off egalitarians worst-off maximin à la Rawls) choose scenarios: (integration) deteriorate improve; (no integration) status-quo ‘integration’ ado sure imaginary betray believed stylisation tragic dilemma anyone thinks ‘dualist’ dualism ‘non-reducible’ size concerned: ‘we’ differently simple alone algorithm whereby indicators indicator attractive simplicity fails formulate (loosely relative ‘worst-off State’) States) dualist ambiguity inconsistency By possible) States: clear faced contradictory objective: ‘sufficientarian’ ‘enough’ survive instantiate ‘benevolence’ complement stern 54 benevolence redistribution; priorities 55 n23 plea n31 priori consistency expressed 60 cent median funded et al n45 57 thoroughly Including exemplify building himself belonging ‘realist strand’ ‘combining sociological reasoning’;56 ‘idealist ideals utopian dreaming bad unable dream ‘[i]f exerting justificatory closely factual affairs feasibility constraints’ idealist polluting conflating actually ‘ought statements’ ‘is’ statements emphasise realism idealism instrumental) Conditions preceding taken vindicated Formulating precisely reconstructed hypotheses: (1) (2) generous hypotheses experts Europe) (at presumably nuanced space pointed (most evidently) exert optimism (integration prosperity) qualification flaws orientation models: Europe; 58 above; Hemerijck Uses Investment 2017) 59 Innerarity ‘After Eurocrats’ Dream Contingence History’ Verfblog www verfassungsblog de/after-the-eurocrats-dream-the-contingence-of-the-history/ Conclusions it? functional: Stabilisation truth Model) externalities exigencies triggers ‘openness’ ‘holding environment’ framed imperatives is: ‘Politics liberty midst Politics originated opt (rather unfair credible determinism characterises stake convince robust underpin valorise surprisingly rarely simplified assuming realized frame edge making ‘justice buoyant Existing sources famous correspondence Rawls; ‘Why constitution’ (2001) Left 5; renewed insistence (yet elaborating it) ‘Democracy Crisis’ lecture delivered KULeuven April 2013 kuleuven be/euroforum/page php?LAN=E&FILE= policy-papers ‘Three Letters Peoples Union’ Revue Philosophie Économique recently focused instigated democracy Rawls-Machiavelli programme (ECPR 2011) ; n26 Kochenov Burca Williams Deficit (Hart Neyer Forst Lacroix Nicolaïdis world endeavour: stronger amongst democratically elected democracies; democracies complemented underestimated contention foremost ‘democratic Institutions; ‘deficit urgent

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sampol 2016/10|81 De welvaartsstaat: een donkere interpretatie BOEKESSAY Frank Vandenbroucke Maar de van Deleecks originele partituur is zo schrijft Bea Cantillon “rauwer en donkerder” Toch eindigt ze met positieve oproep perfect samengevat in laatste zinnen het boek: “In balans hebben we progressievere welvaartsstaat nodig Waar er synergieën zijn moeten deze ten volle benut worden tegenstellingen contradicties waarden primeren ” Ik ben conclusie eens minder pessimisme dat doorklinkt weg naar Of beter als pessimistisch over haalbaarheid dan zou ik daarvoor andere redenen verf zetten Cantillons zwaarmoedigheid Met staat (2016) publiceert opus magnum Het bouwt voort op architectuur (1992) Herman Deleeck omvattend handboek geschiedenis doelstellingen organisatie sociaal beleid heeft te maken ongelijke strijd tussen twee rollen die haar betoog speelt Enerzijds spoort goed logica vrije markt bijvoorbeeld kinderopvang voor werkende ouders opleiding activering werklozen: mensen voldoende productieve vaardigheden varen daar wel bij economisch leven ook; “synergie” Anderzijds gaat tégen markt: minimumlonen werkloosheidsuitkeringen beschermen tegen zitten “tegenstellingen contradicties” niet teruggetreden be- SAMPOL_december2016 indd 81 8/12/2016 10:29:33 2016/10|82 klemtoont expansief taken aan economische behoeften beantwoorden waar is; beschermende rol al geruime tijd verdrukking In strijdtoneel beschrijft wint sociale GEEN IJZEREN WETTEN MAAR WANORDE vergelijking simplismen debat kleuren dit boek verademing Neem kretologie ‘de middenklasse’ Jonathan Holslag Morgen (26/10): “We branden waanzinnig tempo spaargeld uit glorietijden babyboomers (…) Wees maar zeker van: middenklasse zij eraan Gert Peersman Michel Maus hadden kort voren hun duit zakje gedaan dezelfde krant: “De voorbije decennia alleen gegroeid nu dreigt verdwijnen” Kunnen analyses overwaaien Angelsaksische wereld zonder meer toepassen ons eigen land? Dreigt Belgische verdwijnen? Ziet bar slecht vele hardwerkende tweeverdieners onze bevolken? Lees realiteit complexer: binnen bevolking actieve leeftijd zien vooral gezinnen weinig of participeren arbeidsmarkt achterop geraken Onze behoefte eenvoudige verhalen onverzadigbaar Als straks uitsterft willen toch geloven onheil overkomt Verenigde Staten tot België wijten één enkele externe vijand: boze globalisering En succes Brexit Trump valt herleiden verliezers globalisering’ Helaas ook simpel Mark Elchardus hierover geduldig empirisch onderzoek doet stelt vast steun populisme niets persoonlijke sociaaleconomische situatie kiezers (Zeno 19/10) Los daarvan toenemende ongelijkheid resultaat factoren Deze verschillen land landen kennen sterk uiteenlopende ontwikkelingen Om begrijpen moet je zowel kapitaalmarkten arbeidsmarkten kijken om technologische evoluties machtsverhoudingen normen gedragscodes loon- beloningsbeleid bedrijven bepalen manier waarom huishoudens vormen; cruciale factor belastingen uitkeringen dus politiek synthese levenswerk Anthony Atkinson zich laat interpreteren hand episodes langlopende trends Er geen wetmatigheden alle hetzelfde patroon creëren groei vermogen hunkeren waarheden wanorde vatten Vele werk Piketty nieuwe ‘ijzeren wet’ blootgelegd magische formule gebaseerd verschil rendement kapitaal r g onderlijnt zelf fameuze ‘r>g’ belangrijkste verklaring biedt veranderingen inkomens- vermogensverdeling wet overtuigingen cruciaal beklemtoont terecht belang vermogens complex: inzake inkomensongelijkheid verwijst hij eerst onderwijs Kortom heerst 82 10:29:34 2016/10|83 orde wetten’ bieden vals gevoel houvast wie hoofd koel wil houden Mijn overtuiging kunnen vinden sterke morele principes waarmee richting geven actie Dat bril lees Daarom zin vraag nu: slagen? EEN TRILEMMA complexe spanningen welvaartsstaten: demografische verschuivingen creëerden “trilemma” inspanningen groter én progressiever (meer herverdelend) onmogelijk werkgelegenheid bescherming hoog agenda daarbij kritisch tegenover zogenaamde “sociale investeringsbeleid” klemtoon legt investeringen combinatie betaald gezinsverantwoordelijkheid Sociaal investeringsbeleid draait emanciperende dienstverlening ‘passieve’ dient ontwikkeling: hier welvaartspolitiek kapitalisme Precies daarom werd breed verspreid discours ziet onder paarse regeringen-Verhofstadt illustratie Volgens schiet eenzijdig tekort: méér geld progressiviteit zal armoede actieven blijven toenemen juist: investeren combineren; sterker ene passen kanttekeningen kritiek “investeringsbeleid” Ten eerste blijkt negatieve – name achteruitgang minimale inkomensbescherming eerder optraden jaren 1990 2000 Dit historische volledig analyse Noch “versnelling Verhofstadt1 (onder motto ‘actieve welvaartsstaat’ aangekondigd 1999) noch uitbreiding Europese Unie lidstaten lage lonen (opgestart vanaf 2004) komt oorzaak althans wat betreft Voor geldt vaststelt We lange ononderbroken trends: episode dalende situeert volgens indicatoren midden 1980 einde 2 Daarna volgde periode vooruitgang best denkbaar opnieuw ingaan waarbij stelselmatig achterblijven aanzien inkomens werkenden: alles prioriteiten regeringen hanteren budgettaire Misschien politieke trend onweerstaanbaar doorzet? intuïtie harder geworden mededogen kent duidelijkheid grond waarschuwing zie fundamentele inderdaad aanleiding kan stelselmatige verharding vergrijzing reden volgende: men 83 2016/10|84 pensioenen peil door langer laten werken daarop inzet riskeren aanleg mogelijkheden succesvolle langdurige loopbanen ontwikkelen mate kortste eind trekken Ze zullen goede misschien motivatie (en geld) fatsoenlijke pensioen gaan denk onvermijdelijkheid belangrijk risico Hoe daarmee omgegaan wordt kwestie keuzes Een tweede kanttekening somber ingekleurde trilemma wijziging samenstelling uitgaven volgende spanning evolutie uitgaven: “toegezogen” domeinen belangen samenvallen (de ‘investeringsuitgaven’) bestedingen herverdelend Zien gebeuren? Feitelijk synergie grootst koste besteedt relatief aandacht sinds begin 1980: verschuiving beschermingsuitgaven investeringsuitgaven toename gezondheidszorg Haar geeft daardoor gewicht evoluties: ouderen feit heden geslaagd wedloop dure medische solidaire kostendekking vol ander illustreert mogelijk dynamiek enerzijds “investeringsuitgaven” economie ondersteunen anderzijds “beschermingsuitgaven” tweedeling leidt zwaarmoedig beeld rommeltje leent tweedelingen denken stip voorbeeld veel niet-ouderen zwakke arbeidsmarktpositie laaggeschoolden West- Noord-Europese welvaartsstaten onvermijdelijkheid: nationale beleidskeuzes spelen heel positie laaggeschoolde druk; qua doen wij WAT TE DOEN? Zeker beschermingsopdracht moeilijker zelfs los effecten hoger had nog uitvergroot wijze waarop vormen: vind geheel logisch vaak terug scholingsniveau Veel worstelt vloeit vaststelling norm levensstandaard bepaald samenspel gezinsvorming groeiende risico’s kinderen laaggeschoold huishouden deelt volwassenen… sociologische gegeven 84 2016/10|85 verander wetten decreten wijst genuanceerde evenwicht toekennen individuele rechten inbouwen gezinsdimensie overtuigde Commissie Pensioenhervorming 2020-2040 principe jammer pensioenhervorming besteedde selectiviteit (méér zwak staat) universaliteit (iedereen toegang voordelen) Wat moeilijk grootste bedreiging toekomst ligt sociologie demografie afwezigheid maatschappelijk contract omgaan onvoorspelbare betekent eenvoudig gesteld: beetje zekerheid onzekere hervorming pensioenstelsel inspireren Zo’n perspectief brede middengroep overtuigen hen iets ‘verdwijnen’) zwakkere groepen lot maatschappelijke vernieuwen vakbonden werkgevers bereid basisconsensus zoeken Zijn partners daartoe bereid? kleine geglobaliseerde hangt plaats af Pessimisme ambitie zouden opgeven Noten 1/ omslag investering feitelijk sedert helft ingezet duidelijke versnelling 2000’ (voetnoot 243 p 501) 2/ Zie grafiek 8 10 pp 438-439 Hoogleraar Universiteit Amsterdam Antwerpen (Centrum Beleid Deleeck) m v Linde Buysse Uitgeverij Acco Leuven 2016 85

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DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES DPS16 27 NOVEMBER 2016 How does early deprivation relate to later-life outcomes? A longitudinal analysis Ron DIRIS and Frank VANDENBROUCKE Public Economics Faculty of Business Diris* Vandenbroucke† Abstract Measures material are increasingly used as alternatives traditional poverty indicators While there exists extensive literature focusing on the impact that growing up in a (financially) poor household has future success little is known about how relates long-run outcomes This study uses data from 1970 British Cohort Study assess relationship between adult life We control for an set observable characteristics further employ valueadded generalized sensitivity nature this find diverse outcome variables but magnitude conditional relationships generally small Immaterial family quality show relatively stronger ties especially with respect non-cognitive skills Keywords: disadvantage JEL Classification: I32 J13 J62 *Department Maastricht University 6200 MD Netherlands r diris@maastrichtuniversity nl (corresponding author) †University Amsterdam KU Leuven Antwerp would like thank Erwin Ooghe Brian Nolan Geranda Notten Kristof de Witte participants APPAM conference London PE seminar their helpful comments 1 Introduction Classifications or social exclusion have traditionally relied measures individual income Material (MD) alternative indicator refer list ’basic necessities’ households different domains The increasing use these reflects perception captures more than lack Although depends what perceived basket necessities at given point time it essentially absolute measure contrasts commonly at-risk-of-poverty rate which relative positions within country become popular international intertemporal comparisons ‘Severe deprivation’ included target Europe 2020 strategy European Union (European Commission 2010) However contrast specifically related important analyzes confronted (BCS) follows total 17000 individuals born Britain first week April BCS reports information child its parents birth contains follow-ups multiple ages both childhood until age 42 It provides possessions circumstances well vast range several progress extensively extent raw correlations driven by associations other determinants Moreover we value-added developed Imbens (2003) address selection bias establish whether likely causal remains Using factor six 1The character should be interpreted nuance Poverty can also least context one when threshold anchored based arbitrary choice base year (in defined) principle possible construct countries Roelen (2012) constructing basis hazardous exercise 2 estimated two strands literature: studies analyzing (or complementary) background former group mainly focuses explaining mismatch being income-poor materially deprived2 encompassing items 3 Advocates ofMDemphasize benefits over strictly conceptual view (income neglects preferences risk factors) terms measurement (yearly volatile across prone error extremes distribution) shows into matters greatly There strong children later example educational attainment 4 Evidence adoption indicates variation families not solely due genes therefore ‘family quality’ crucial importance 5 still unclear specific aspects capture Studies composite socio-economic status (SES) typically combine parental education occupation home and/or linked those 6 Brooks-Gunn Duncan (1997) provide overview focus relation conclude (preschool school years) most strongly difficult empirically disentangle occu- 2See e g Perry (2002); Whelan et al (2004) 3Different methods elicit single such prevalence weighting principal component item response theory structural equation modeling no consensus For examples each approaches see Cappellari Jenkins (2006); Maˆıtre (2005); Tomlinson (2008) An provided (2010) 4See Corak (2013) intergenerational transmission OECD (2015) 5See Bj¨orklund Sacerdote (2008); Beckett (2006) 6See Bradley Corwyn (2002) pation neighbourhood rearing behavior etc Recent aimed uncover direct links Many role credit constraints type research finds short-term becomes limited best once factors achievement concludes permanent markedly liquidity (Heckman 2000; Carneiro Heckman 2003; Dearden 2004; Chevalier 2013) Still (permanent) Several exploited exogenous directly Frijters (2005) using sibling fixed effects combination event German reunification identifies low health while Løken Norwegian oil boom shock Other identify comparatively larger estimates substantially below simple suggest; Blanden Gregg (partially same (British) paper) Akee These results call question provision will lead substantial improvements prospects (2009) through evaluation EMA program students weekly cash transfers attendance staying clear alleviation because reduce opportunity costs Overall findings tend suggest correlation large part led researchers argue largely immaterial (see (2008)) explanation advocates often only imperfectly restrictions opportunities face As meaningful analyze either substitute complement Establishing existing emphasis put policy policies targeted reducing Identifying relations towards improve evaluations In general few key Filmer Pritchett (1999) exception conducting macro-level they link differences wealth (measured presence basic facilities drinking water electricity) Relying rich micro-level current various measured Additionally add addressing potentially confounding likelihood providing comparison sample paper organized introduce theoretical considerations Section describes methodological issues discussed presents empirical discusses robustness analyses 7 Theory Defining section discuss concept arise measuring constructs definition states “material refers inability afford consumption goods activities typical certain society irrespective people’s items” (OECD 2007) words concerns able ‘typical’ major broad characterization considerable exact construction Virtually all incorporate housing conditions More elaborate include access healthy lifestyle Since aim broadest sense since unexplored ultimately want affects developmental process child’s learning development (outside formal processes extra-curricular programs) additional domain define deprivation: possessional already suggested ‘material’ aspect always adhered make distinction ‘immaterial’ discussion reflected subdivision possession ambiguous contain tangible tools intangible support thereby divide sub-domain separately might alternatively thought cultural ‘capital’ thereof) 7One crime believe conceptually tied household’s living arrangements (which evidently captured domain) categorize under types goes beyond (often depending subjective interpretations) them things everyone ‘should have’ Ermisch makes similar his parenting inequality labels ‘what buy’ versus do’ consider light bigger matter simultaneously recognize aware comparing interpreting Measuring Another variable Data availability inevitably determines some any application criteria employed First clearly services case 1970s 1980s concern ‘enrichment’ available share population connotation leaves room interpretation specify constraint half could seen rather loose limit higher result affordability reason comprise questions distinguish having personal preference looks who bound own predominantly ranks value necessity never completely ‘irrespective preferences’ technically requires 8 made odd situated high-crime reasons do our main conduct stage where order final potential assessing considered natural consequence difference ‘concise’ rely very dataset Hence although lower bounds fact inexhaustible relevant viewed upper explain adulthood (we label ‘cohort members’) baseline 17196 10 16 26 30 34 38 9 suffer amount observations drops out fairly (86% 73% 26) waves 0 8The dependent adaptive feelings shame recognized Fusco (2011) addressed adapt Item Response approach correct differential reporting propensities 9The wave around administered tests following (i cohort members) school-level teachers principals taken verbal wide focal somewhat weighted specification supplementary Each Parental categorical (seven categories eleven 16) follow McKnight assigning midpoint band including obtained qualifications mental body mass index satisfaction gross net structure four variables: reading highest qualification income10 self-reported If missing impute next recent observation apply increases rapidly observe avoid leads 11 non-missing years established trends then calculate average express rank 100 10To confusion member’s serves serve ‘adult income’ ‘parental 11The mean values stable test scores intelligence math Questionnaires carried sets allow self-esteem locus person feels life) Rutter behavioral problems reported members latter Locus Estimation Measurement mentioned separate health/nutritional subdivided 50% inputs take affected (intermediate) dummy aspiration levels desired level particular performs Similarly exclude number friends visited same-aged peers assume choices carry ‘ambiguous’ determine fit relevance uniqueness measures) choose method explanatory power weight assigned inverse sample) cases includes Being deprived TV sources overlap automatically ensures much receive excluded altogether All standardized zero standard deviation 12 assessment purpose report completion presented Table A1 13 model estimate OLS model: Yi = 0+ 1Possi+ 2Housei+ 3Neighi+ 4Healthi+ 5EduMi+ 6EduIi+ 7Soci+X0 i+i (1) vector X0 employment 12The Cronbach’s alpha are: 801 700 640 554 545 eduational 447 13The defined unlikely (e appliances) chosen priors expected ex ante affect indirectly spend child-rearing style complete Appendix A2 inclusion ofX0 account outside emphasize controls effect operate spending tutoring classes) among When father’s without impacts parameter  Model represents classical term represent mechanisms 14 array cognition socio-emotional play mediating 15 Imputation To ensure enough observed 14We channels shaped grows 15See Almlund cognitive imputation W¨oßmann ‘fundamental’ (labeled F) fundamental virtually birth; gestational mother’s ethnicity wedlock gender was hospital-born M (Mk) (Mj ) regress Mj F coefficients regression Mk Further dummies indicate imputed Results correlational regresses isolation step jointly subsequently signals chances grow obtaining favourable (including domains) informative evidence holding constant reflect unobservable issue Sections portrayed graphically Figure figure (Model 1) finally additionally specifications Tables A4 A6 detail Main estimation Reading shown left quadrant A3 Not surprisingly strongest increase reduction 29 remain statistically significant coefficient suggests per With last rows marginally reduces appear mechanism Educational mem- ber (different of) distinguishing significantly associated decrease corresponds 25 deviation) Including severely longer full (mainly income) -0 22 drive previous exist high Achievement appears (both noncognitive cutoff degree attributed comparable Among GCSE A-C connections Dummy end distribution weaker Adult during right A5 smaller here margin (‘separate’) ranking percentiles added decreases percentile compared initial Controlling Part operates mimics 42) incomes highly consistent Health Interestingly dominate Social 136 five-point scale (and initially association hardly (observed) change (once occur questionnaires predate physical prominent selective controlling class) Similar mediate Non-linearity assumed now linear worthwhile explore extreme need reach before nonlinearities subsection estimating polynomials 17 non-linearity apparent Comparing inhibits non-linear tendencies quadratic positive indicating negative diminishing possibly skewed implies fits hous- 16See Kessler (2007) 17These request ing interesting (especially) severe non-linearities certainly involve sign reversal surprising begin attenuated Finally interaction complementarity neighbourhoods vice versa assessed noteworthy summarized A7 Coefficients (the size well-being) (immaterial) Estimates Furthermore acts rooms house highlights persistence proper Body Mass Index (BMI) BMI allows positively negatively 18 appliances microwaves) less diet lag adolescence Value-added Because points lagged earlier achieved X0) growth lags contrasting remarkable electronics bedroom 19 opposite line revealed score exhibit unobserved investments identified biased influence (GSA) extended Harada continuous unobservables required 18We speculate underlying One watching complementing subjects (Borzekowski Robinson 2005; Sharif ways 19See Cunha (2010); 20 insignificant plausibility parameters partial R2’s needed render combined plausibly On hand if away plots plausible cases: straightforward so (unobservable) weak GSA produces emphasized variance explained plotted graph conservative addition 20One 21 implausible even though (very slightly) X adding classroom peer R2 01 017 representative curve area Explanatory valuable joint marginal reveals uniquely explains (extensive) student 21Additionally statistical significance (at 10% level) majority conclusion condition lines above minor means (especially self-esteem) compare ‘gross’ ‘net’ look reversed) naturally shares figures confirms adverse better essence argued bands subject Keeping mind portray restrict overallMDare Correlations slightly perform (an imperfect eliciting at-risk 23 modest third fourth column split pattern indicator; subset predictive second except again dominance (strictly) (likely attenuated) ‘traditional’ weakest characteristics) worth noting lose multidimensional advantages unique seven con- 22One focused bottom distinguishes (its close normal long tails side) topcoded 24 siderably Differences constructed too robustly age-effects Robustness assumptions relax Bad problem styles divorces downwardly 10; 5; ‘bad controls’ Deprivation incorporating Nonetheless panel B contribute overall downward influenced Conversely excludes controlled Affordability count executed belong (these unconditional Only looking simply owning connection (possessional) Different specified restriction cannot 25% 15% tighter remove 20% 40% respectively fall changes 25-50% 15-50% restrictive almost Sensitivity thresholds gradually three models Endogenous items? present misleading way visits museum library plays musical instrument partially interest (partially) parent-child member club Especially expect however lies A9 proportional ex- 23The restricted subdomains: neighbours financial responsible 28 ercise interpret care truly resulting (also) personality independently state representing (perceived) environment surrounding Attrition heterogeneity disappear attrition non-random Those differ Most prominently male (58 4% vs 49 4%) non-native (16 8% 6%) (12 2% fully period external validity may turns boys out-of-wedlock None similarly moderate loss representativeness described employing conventional identifying attenuation interactions corresponding (thereby allowing intercept slope respective variable) A8 approaches: applied sum binary remarkably (commonly used) relating sizes Judging Financial hardship incorporated lacking namely ability unexpected expenses arrears bills ask were troubled past Conditional percentage Conclusion experienced reveal Plausible adds (mental) analyzed ‘deprivation’ form (a capital (conditional) 31 diminish Previous huge Our isolated contributor disconnect ‘material state’ causally supportive McLanahan Bianchi educated fathers mothers contributors Research low-income improved changing guidance beliefs relief (Kautz 2014) ‘immaterial (imperfectly measured) At invalidate alto- 32 gether Basic (although groups improves identifier limitations automatic taking life-time perspective changed inevitable linking achievements causality likely) exploitation elements help segments Future precisely greatest challenge exactly why obtain widely References R K W E Copeland G Keeler Angold J Costello Parents children’s outcomes: quasi-experiment American economic journal Applied economics 2(1) 86–115 L Duckworth T D Kautz Personality psychology Handbook Education Volume pp 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Analysis Management 29(2) 305–325 new tool monitoring (child) poverty: cumulative Indicators 5(2) 335–355 Society Glance: 2006 Edition Organisation Co-operation Together: Why Less Benefits Paris France: Publishing Zealand 101–127 Nature nurture learned twins adoptees? North- Holland 36 Wills Sargent Effect visual performance: prospective 46(1) 52–61 Williams 1991 2003 37(04) 597–620 Layte Understanding dynamic comparative Sociological 287– 302 Vulnerability perspectives europe: latent class Societies 7(3) 423–450 equal opportunities? US CESifo Working 1162 37 1: Possess House Neighbour Educ (M) (I) − att −3 −2 −1 05 Raw C+M Notes: portrays (‘Raw’) (‘C’) (‘C+M’) ‘C+M’ horizontal bars 95% confidence intervals equally spaced averaged expressed 2: Partial EV −−> HE HO (partial R2) (‘EV’; deprivation) (D) (X0) Figures (C (I)) (all row) (P) (HE) (HO) 39 3: Math Self−esteem Mental Controls Domains (vector regressing 40 Possession Housing Neigh Panel A: VA Reading16 035* 003 001 030*** 050*** 107*** (0 021) 018) 010) 011) 012) LC 051*** 016 006 018* 029** 054*** 002 019) 016) 009) Reading10 020** 026** 138*** 008 014) 031** 019* 021** 110*** 005 013) Math16 066*** 014 059*** 049*** 093*** 024 025) 020) 015) 040* 019 010 038*** 027** 030* 022* 017) Rutter16 007 056*** 028*** 032*** 046*** 065*** 047*** 025*** 035*** 024** 028** 044*** Rutter10 036** 019** 070*** 020 009 048*** 008) Locus16 042** 027 041*** 023) 038** 015 023 037*** Self-esteem16 030 026 033*** 047** 161*** 029 046** 157*** B: Reading5 077*** 034*** 004 111*** 011 Math10 057*** 022** 018** 042*** 121*** Rutter5 053*** 026*** 027*** Locus10 023** 045*** Self-esteem10 025** table ‘LC’ (taken outcomes) regressions ‘Rutter’ ‘Locus’ internal 41 No Y (all) 801*** 818*** 434*** 594*** 179*** 295*** 127*** 249*** 035) 039) 046) 043) 042) 038) 29*** -7 26*** -5 20*** -3 30*** 66*** -2 51*** 999** 34*** 396) 399) 436) 440) 484) 450) 439) 382) 154*** 113*** 087*** 055*** 242*** 218*** 172*** 042* 024) 022) 301*** 335*** 176*** 244*** 131*** 124*** 279*** 307*** 213*** 079*** 149*** 100*** 082*** 029) 027) 026) 130*** 197*** 123*** 119*** 026* 072*** 129*** 258*** 114*** 231*** 041 219*** 184*** 898*** -1 25*** 468*** 27*** 291 790*** 240 937*** 138) 157) 162) 161) 193) 194) 184) 169) (Y) Effects estimations Possession16 Possession10 Possession5 Housing16 Housing10 Housing5 036 035 032 033 028 036) 031) 192 342 951*** 872*** 783*** 158 311) 395) 329) 245) 246) 253) 012 039* 034* 025* Age-specific 4: Exclusion 209*** 418*** 13*** 312) lim 09*** 288) 137*** 82*** 028) 317) 288*** 730*** 57*** 136*** 301) 064*** 297) 208*** 43*** 306) 264*** 513*** -4 03*** 112*** 310) 463*** 76*** 098*** 279) 043* 062** 23*** 305) 203*** 65*** 030) 341) 205*** 50*** (taking together) 43 5: Lack (A) (B) 426*** 423*** 0024 025 49*** 31*** 022 48*** 729*** 018 286) 307) 275) 0093 089*** 0098) 0097) Add 210*** 054** 104 196*** 075*** 101 77*** 574** 072 63*** 118 069 303) 283) 273) 017* 0065 040** 00011 0095) 059** 235 034 434 740*** 225 405 188 224 295) 265) 298) 251) 0027 013 054 0058 053 0055 248 0098 00018 0091) compares afforded 44 6: maximally allowed (main) 083*** 031 088*** 061** 231 790** 922*** 537** 630*** 310 718*** 010*** 324 333) 272) 228) 232) 249) 271) 047 103*** 237 067** 085*** 060*** 226*** 229 416 826*** 507** 433* 303 674*** 615** 321 313) 229) 233) 239) 262) 250) 036*** 236 038 181*** 226 771** 648** 120 399* 762*** 178*** 257 319 319) 269) 237) 231) 260) 256) 016* 031*** 045 099*** 232 top 45 A1: variance: (reversed) 46 Items • Possessions: (does own:) refrigerator washing machine dryer car phone video recorder camera stereo radio PC sewing vacuum cleaner microwave 16); freezer holiday 10); 5); child: cassette player bicycle Health: eats meat fish times breakfast lunch iron vitamins milk fibre carbons sugar intake 10) Neighbourhood: noisy graffiti youth loitering streets drunks rubbish street victim beak-in unsafe night (age 5) Housing: bathroom indoor toilet hot garden kitchen bed difficulties heating moisture untidy furniture (material): played books studying newspapers calculator constructional toys (immaterial): read Social: participate activity (excursions charities concerts) talk rarely participates misses money organization 47 A2: Control Birth controls: abnormalities hospital head circumference mother married father Household income: eligibility free class: employment: works (averaged hours worked work experience structure: people older siblings younger Parenting style: attitude toward independence authoritarian world smoking (ever) pregnancy heavy A3: Separate 128*** 169*** 289*** – 044** 096*** 193*** 115 000003 039*** 181 000 020* 167*** 021* 132 081*** 170*** 144 Parent empl 041** 029*** 091*** 198*** 119 031* 188*** 141 090*** 165*** 133 Non-cog (NC) 249 (WC) row regressed isolation) Rows Row See contained A4: 560*** 449*** 260*** 451*** 707*** 433*** 271*** 140*** 162*** 486*** 106 261*** 171*** 456*** 198 074** 056** 057** 135*** 390*** 101*** 147 153*** 055** 126*** 399*** 159 239*** 147*** 462*** 104*** 092*** 148*** 160*** 425*** 142 187*** 071*** 132*** 394*** 137 058*** 192*** 080*** 243 073*** 045* 301 078*** 141*** 429*** 128 194*** 242 037* 50 A5: 17*** 12*** 81*** 04*** 89*** 299) 282) 254) 266) 278) 268) 700*** 540*** 392*** 158*** 576*** 454 071 353) 255) 264) 308) 583*** 971*** 956*** 851*** 238*** 276 321) 284) 281) 651*** 097*** 611*** 383*** 153 354) 309) 261) 901** 889*** 798*** 088 099 371) 314) 276) 552*** 300*** 929*** 462 090 358) 277) 285) 381*** 592*** 537*** 419 364) 315) 287) 562*** 570*** 527*** 374*** 368 360) 052*** 469*** 376*** 255*** 016*** 964*** 326 084 357) 684*** 314*** 838*** 544* 116 129 348) 304) 639* 726*** 516** 270 077 600** 976*** 363 326) 221) 242) 243) 572*** 612*** 371*** 182*** 402*** 052 083 352) 292) 792** 857*** 401* 476** 222 526*** 549** 332 332) 270) 650** 710*** 204 113 563** 699*** 366 description 51 A6: 108*** 125*** 0099) 0092) 0093) 040*** 030** 068*** 037 069*** 044 048 059 061 Subjective 52 A7: Arrests34 007) 006) health42 300** 117 066 262*** 105 709*** 147) 121) 095) 098) 101) 122) 103) satis34 043** 150*** 120) Finances42 024* BMI42 276*** 190*** 345*** 057 091) 073) 059) 063) 064) 078) 065) 278** 221*** 042 115) 099) 060) 076) 071) BMI16 040 046 048) 032) 053) 060* 060 067* 275 047) BMI10 151*** BMI42) ‘BMI’ ‘Arrests34’ arrests ‘Mental health42’ Warwick Edinburgh well-being ‘Finances42’ situation 53 A8: Comparison (educational attainment) Factor PW 332*** 191*** 357*** 122*** 093 Sum 292*** 517*** 118*** 086 Binary 633*** 129** 982*** 199*** 057) 056) 058) 095*** 049** 224*** 138** 476*** 130** 065 228 061) 055) 054) (baseline) ‘Factor’ ‘PW’ ‘Sum’ sums applies ‘Binary’ 0/1 75th labeled deprived) 54 A9: Excluding Exclude 062*** 166*** 227 000*** 573** 714*** 286 320 334) 230) 248) 234) 021 partly member) exclusively 55 Copyright © @ author(s) Discussion papers draft distributed purposes comment reproduced permission copyright holder Copies author

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Opinie gepubliceerd in De Standaard 8 oktober 2016 p 41 FRANK VANDENBROUCKE Wie? Hoogleraar aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam en voorzitter Academische Raad voor het pensioenbeleid Wat? Wat eerste pensioenpijler kan beloven werkende jongeren vandaag (en wat niet) moet veel duidelijker aangegeven worden Paniek over onze pensioenen is niet nodig een debat wel Alarmkreten oude dogma’s die gemakkelijk weerlegd kunnen leiden alleen maar verder pensioenhervorming schrijft Het grote pensioenbedrog Jef Vuchelen Mark Scholliers (DS 5 oktober) merkwaardig boek Ons pensioenstelsel zou ‘aan rand financiële afgrond’ staan’ rapport Commissie Pensioenhervorming (CPH) was meer dan ‘prutsen marge’ drama dat huidige gebaseerd op repartitie: lopende inkomsten meteen omgeslagen pensioenuitgaven Een omslagstelsel wordt bedreigd door faillissement wanneer bevolking veroudert En als failliet gaat leidt alleszins tot onzekerheid omdat afhankelijk economische groei Omdat CPH deze financieringstechniek vraag stelt kiest ze dus ‘bewust fragiliteit onzekerheid’ Alleen kapitalisatie waarbij fondsen aangelegd ons volgens redden moeilijk discussiëren met mensen lezen je Zo beweren verhoging wettelijke pensioensleeftijd 67 ‘slechts terloops’ vermeldde Vreemd want 40 200 pagina’s beleidsadvies waren gewijd pensioenleeftijd Daarin hebben we zorgvuldig afgewogen impact ervan zijn onder gunstige minder hypotheses betrekking werkgelegenheid gaan bovendien voorbij centrale boodschap: pensioencontract zekerheid bieden onzekere wereld toekomstige hoogst onzeker demografische ontwikkeling ook voorspellen verdelingscontract maximaal ‘immuun’ onzekerheden: ingebouwde aanpassingsmechanismen moeten verhouding tussen inkomens gepensioneerden actieven stabiel houden toekomst helder zijn; betrouwbaar betaalbaar Deze kerngedachte uit (aanpassingsmechanismen inbouwen fatsoenlijke betaalbare actieve inkomens) politiek noch sociale partners opgepikt Evenmin Scholliers; academici verwachten zij model redenering ondersteunt analyseren bekritiseren Dogma’s doos plaatsen daartegenover dogma kapitalisatie: beleggen eigen pensioen biedt Met indrukwekkende nauwkeurigheid gesteld volstaat om gedurende 47 jaar maandelijks 97 13 euro te pensioenkapitaal verzamelen 120 000 Dat inflatie- renteverwachtingen afgedaan zo belangrijk lange termijn Tja Wie gelooft rotsvaste zorgt eens luisteren naar nu Nederland woedt gevolgen lage rente pensioenbeloften Maar belangrijkste reden waarom dit zo’n auteurs voorbijgaan karrenvracht academische literatuur voor- nadelen repartitie Ze blijven steken stelling vele jaren geleden dienst uitmaakte: bestand tegen schokken In wetenschap intussen al lang begraven Repartitie verschillende financieringstechnieken types financieringsrisico’s Fundamenteel bij basis gevormd loonmassa of algemeen nationale economie; risico ligt economie Kapitalisatie laat toe diversifiëren ten minste deel kapitalen internationaal belegd los toelaat veroudering vangen mythe fundamentele inzicht ontbreekt hoe verdelingsvraagstuk: hoeveel geproduceerde rijkdom geconsumeerd niet-actieve ouderen? geen twee evidente oplossing verdelingsconflict generaties mix nuttig mate waarin stand brengen hangt af historische vertrekpunt: België overheerst afbouwen zinvol dubbele last leggen generatie repartitiestelsel voorzien zodat beoogde resultaat – immuun robuust aangevuld bijvoorbeeld via sectorale pensioenfondsen contractuelen openbare sector komt allemaal bod Let zegt juist goed argumenten ingaat Hervorming blijft werf zaaien catastrofescenario’s hervormingen scenario’s weerleggen We geholpen er gebeuren? regering heeft belangrijke ingrepen beslist; sommige voorstellen overgenomen oog betaalbaarheid systeem regeringsbeslissingen ‘morrelen gedachte doelstelling vastleggen stabiliseren Er gevoerd Daardoor Belgische maatschappelijk fragiel communicatie minister Daniel Bacquelaine (MR) pijler ‘niet zal volstaan’ helpt daarbij aangeven gegevens aanwezig: (de opvolger CPH) Kenniscentrum Pensioenen Planbureau onderzocht kwaliteit pensioenstelsels evolueert Hun berekeningen zekere zin hoogte geruststellend: tekent zich dramatische achteruitgang wie dieper graaft vindt aanduidingen gemiddelde werknemerspensioenen geruststellend ondanks implementatie recente verlenging loopbanen uitgelegd nota publiek beschikbaar pleiten opstellen precieze kwaliteitsindicatoren inzake grondig Daarop nog steeds reactie gekomen Eerder dogmatische recepten toveren concrete opstarten genoemde www frankvandenbroucke uva nl

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Reflets et Perspectives, LII, 2013/2-3 — 97 Why we need a European Social Union Frank Vandenbroucke 1 Abstract – Arguments on “social Europe” to give an unequivocal answer questions of why, what, and how. With regard the question I argue that, whereas ten years ago quest for operational description social model might have been dismissed as interesting but not strictly necessary, today it is no less than existential conundrum Union. EMU must be complemented with genuine Union, sustainable in long term. A means that EU would guide substantive development national welfare states, via general standards objectives, leaving ways policy Member States. That presupposes sufficient degree consensus goals policy. It also requires pan-European solidarity based reciprocity relationships between briefly sketch some elements ensuing agenda, focus notion investment. identify urgencies respect how, particularly restore unity economic policy, short long-term how this relate ‘contractual approach’ proposed by President Council, Herman Van Rompuy. JEL: Europe, solidarity, open coordination, investment Résumé Le débat sur l’« Europe sociale » besoin de réponses sans équivoque aux suivantes : le pourquoi d’une sociale, la sa subs‑ tance celle méthode à utiliser pour y parvenir. En ce qui concerne pourquoi, je défends thèse suivante si, voici dix ans, quête opérationnelle du modèle européen pouvait encore être considérée comme un exercice utile mais pas vraiment indispensable, elle est devenue aujourd’hui une réellement existentielle l’Union. Pour que l’Union monétaire puisse survivre, il faut compléter réelle européenne. Une européenne signifie développement en substance des États-providence nationaux, par biais objectifs sociaux généraux, 1. professor at KULeuven. [email protected]. He holds Den Uyl Chair University Amsterdam Deleeck Uni‑ versity Antwerpen. Cette contribution version abrégée d’un article publié dans l’Italian Journal Public Policy « Union: We Need It, What Means », Rivista Italiana di Politiche Pubbliche, 2/13, pp. 221‑247. DOI: 10.3917/rpve.522.0097 Document téléchargé depuis www.cairn.info – Universiteit van 145.18.163.136 05/04/2016 12h31. © De Boeck Supérieur 98 tout laissant les moyens instruments États membres. Cela présuppose base propos politique sociale. requiert aussi solidarité pan-européenne, basé réciprocité entre substance, j’esquisse brièvement quelques éléments devraient figurer l’agenda découle cette analyse, me focalisant l’investissement social. J’identifie quelques-unes urgences relatives savoir nécessité restaurer l’unité économique court terme comment cela pourrait inspirer l’approche contractuelle proposée Président Conseil européen, INTRODUCTION For over fifty debating whether active dimension. The number publications describing weaknesses now beyond counting. All too often, these writings are merely inconsequential lamentations unreachable. ongoing crisis may present opportunity put firmly agenda. Rather lamen‑ tation, what needed coherent conception reasons behind, agenda for, governance In short, Eu‑ rope” needs presenting list concrete proposals, paper focuses why-ques‑ tion. “the model” basic required meaning dimension Europe’s citizens role play it. Such cover issue States’ mutual obligations, i.e. countries demand from one another. thus arises can incorporated into institutional States, same way within each State separately reci‑ procity individuals. last section paper, in‑ vestment. “contractual approach” 2 THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION incorrect assert has today. technical coordination security rights mobile workers, health safety workplace, directives regulating workers’ 99 procedural issues labour markets… constitute non-trivial acquis piecemeal progress. Starting principles non-discrimination grounds nationality equal pay work men women, created solid legal foundation enforcing nondiscrimination fields gender, age, ethnicity, etc. Seen light, reformulated follows: why does require goes on-going dyna‑ mics its anti-discrimination principles? Or, formulate more precisely: should states so‑ cial Mem‑ ber States basis definition model”? first argument refers sustainability Monetary (EMU): “Excessive imbalances” threaten monetary union much “excessive imbalances”; preventing fighting excessive im‑ balances pursue. will discuss “imbalances” argument, then add other arguments invoked favour compelling, entails complex discus‑ sions, both soli‑ darity called for. 2.1 Excessive imbalances Eurozone adopted Macro-economic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) prevent correct macro-economic imbalances. relies alert system uses scoreboard indicators in-depth country studies, strict rules form enforcement financial sanctions euro area do follow up recommenda‑ tions. analytically, imbalance” applies specific parameters characterizing members. This say identical concept apply domain, or MIP-type procedures developed domain (in fact, MIP provides toolbox itself debatable separate discussion). However, expression adequately describes set problems affect member very differently (thus creating “imbalances”). These imba‑ lances simply “similar problems” subset poorly performing states: they matter common concern all Youth unemployment child poverty two examples. po‑ litical (social divergence threatens political Union) (long-term convergence). case, subsequently about consequences unification. 100 Since start project, increasing cohesion across mem‑ crucially important objective. During successive waves enlargement, promise growing was vindicated. World Bank dubbed veritable “convergence machine” (Gill Raiser, 2012). performance upward convergence documented convincingly Lefebvre Pestieau (2012). witness divergence, notably youth unemployment, living verty anchored time (Vandenbroucke al., 2013). If deepening casu creation currency, accompanied further rather legiti‑ macy project stake. Euro source divergence: combination domestic failures play. But if continues, actual steadily undermine credibility project. Both “failing” “successful” members, public opinion become increasingly dissatisfied observation divergence. Reasoning terms “us” “them” South” versus North” inevitably gain legitimacy, while lose legitimacy. North, divide framed efficiency”: members disap‑ pointing record seen socially inefficient economically uncompetitive, entirely responsible remedy situation without fur‑ ther ado. make difficult take steps necessary consolidate longer term, such collective action part sovereign debt, stabilizing fiscal transfers, let alone fullyfledged (see Grauwe, 2013, necessity union). know hard sustain entities lack trust other’s internal fabric: Belgium, north-south divide, telling example. seems even harder create new transfers parties agree their efficiency. erodes legitimacy Euro‑ pean cooperation exists today, damages trust-based perform better future. subjective: continue, cannot prejudge certainty impact support EU. sufficiently plausible impor‑ tant assign label disparity to, instance, “anchored” Eurozone. countries, given proper weight joint endeavour understand extent dif‑ ferences indeed linked real inefficiencies, factors play, done it, level. Next problem creates (to case) 101 signaling objective sustai‑ nability comparatively high level synony‑ mous deficit cause effect vicious circle underperforming markets education systems. Today, huge market outcomes, formal educational achievements outcomes measured OECD’s PISA programme. get trapped sys‑ tems, “bad equilibrium” symmetry among union. essentially assessed current account balances, export shares, exchange rates, unit costs, government private housing prices, para‑ meters properly attuned union; converge direction ensures sustainability. related question, which rarely discussed explicitly, convergence. answered negatively premise different tems functionally equivalent relevant out‑ comes produce. times crisis, flexibility generated quite arrangements: temporary shorter working hours (such Germany), worker mobility relatively unre‑ gulated another country, so forth. Financially pension systems employment rates older workers generous pensions secure finan‑ lower pensions. words, regional diversity architecture compatible supranational symmetry. possibility “functionally equivalent” legitimize principle subsidiarity there seem limits accommodated (2012) discusses policy: economy practice, divergences reti‑ rement pose assertion true, case parame‑ ters pursue domestically. “if” preceding sentence “if”: proofs matters. remains unproven tuning strategies certainly hypothesis. Returning example poverty, show underlying fabrics “func‑ tionally view But, then, “symmetry” neutral: envisaged choice direction. 102 2.2 No sketched previous fits broader discussion currency confronted trade-off flexibility. eco‑ nomic textbooks explaining trade-off, defined purely econo‑ mic terms, argued section, sustaining run imply Flexibility relates wage interregional international mobility, determine country’s “internal” adjustment capacity asymmetric shock. Less necessitates flexibility, according theory “optimal areas”: single cur‑ rency area, greater adaptability order beneficial. There moreover second trade-off: absorbing shocks through budgetary reduced (De Stabilisation cyclical. By example: mecha‑ nism co-funding benefits during initial period excluding activated when short-term rises above certain could function interstate insurance device. Neither nor symmetry, neutral choices. processes painful, like direct nominal cuts (rather erosion depre‑ ciation inflation), cost, massive migration job-seekers. Budget aimed primarily tempo‑ rary stabilisation, explained paragraph, practice stabilising purpose expenditure redis‑ tributive purposes. Obviously, neutral. Hence, trade-offs implied unification force upon participating serve. sure, analysis lead normative conclusions kind ought develop. does, however, inevitability encompassing cognitive well elements: • Cognitive: conver‑ gence? Which degrees freedom exist retirement achievements, poverty…? Normative: gence domains, benchmarks tar‑ gets organising 2. addition described trade-offs, conditions mone‑ tary One topical moment: banking As shall dwell burning obviously term presents before 103 Cognitive normative: our panEuropean transfers? purport only survive meets require‑ ments justice define My claim limited: broad-based, tie common. past, often stressed diverse impossible accurately model. Nonetheless, however reality minimal common, normatively charged objectives Subsequently, dealing developments arises. greatly benefit “burden-sharing” well-rehearsed argument. Jean Pisani-Ferry explains adjustments economies Sou‑ thern treated one-sided process. successful adjust‑ ment process serves interest, prepared contribute part. Germany accept slightly higher inflation allow wages prices Spain (given price stability whole guaranteed assuming takes implement structural reforms). reasoning field (the governments Northern must, PisaniFerry, avoid “overkill”) relation increases observed decade euro). “Reciprocity”, particular example, you share responsibility problem, clear agreements concerted efforts. implies burden e.g. restoring competitiveness placed shoulders partner. turned rational burden-sharing embedded shared darity. German philosopher Jürgen Habermas argues enlightened self-interest motivate organize solidarity. recent lecture KULeuven Democracy, Solidarity Crisis, he stake, relating dis‑ tinguishing existing pre-political communities family), concludes “If wants preserve enough, economies, provide loans over-indebted improve own requi‑ red instead, cooperative effort perspective promote growth zone whole. several shortand medium-term negative redistribution effects longer-term self-in‑ terest classic solidarity.” (Habermas, emphasis text). 104 Whether ‘enlightened self-interest’ develop here. fragility points absence “deep variable”, Grauwe “a sense purpose”, apparent carried reunification: “(T)his deep variable made possible Germany. Put differently, were endogenous variables driven force. exis‑ tence inconceivable star‑ ted having centralized budget capable making large regions, unified system. weakly Level” 2009, p. 113). any look progress actions When launched Open Method Coordination 2000, method gradually vague my view, policies had 1999, 2002a, 2002b). functionalist seemed somewhat superfluous debate essential light Therefore, difficulties encountered worrisome five (not just relative weakness delivery, most salience EU). conceptualizing (ESU) involves philo‑ sophical, practical challenges. stop us starting chapter EMU, ESU. happenstance Rompuy December 2012 suggested contractual approach combine reform (European Section 3, return idea. additional 3 DUMPING AND NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY Discussions refer prevention dumping preservation sovereignty hand. premised far-reaching integration harmonisation induces downward pressure advanced already subject 1956 Ohlin report, together Spaak 105 report laid foundations establishment Econo‑ Community. assumed differences costs concerned closely productivity free trade wages. did em‑ phatically assume subsequent evolution corrected (International Labour Organisation, 1956). Given context, clearly caveat. Prima facie, history proven wrong. parallel integration, expanded, sometimes spectacularly so. Successive enlargements Community invariably resulted references Gill Pestieau, supra). Now contravention doctrine coupled high-level areas, 1980s 90s workplace. noted “upward” “downward” nature depends context: widespread unemploy‑ ment, upper hand, due overall weaker position unions. So here qualified warrants. functional dumping, strong sectors, problem; infra minimum inspires discussions concerns states. line re‑ search Fritz Scharpf, Stephan Leibfried, Maurizio Ferrera others. intrinsic conflict imperatives of, trans-border services, and, other, nationally conceived duties. latter presuppose borders membership circles; former extend circles. fundamental logic “opening” “closure”, paraphrase Ferrera. Bulgarian Belgium enjoy right assistance Belgian national, attaching excessively country-specific conditions; under earned adherence obligations conceptions integration. Taking Dutch shop freely Bel‑ gium care services covered insurers, though jeopardize Belgium’s planning rate agreements. dictates authorities provisions neither free, 3. sharp articulation pessimism, see Scharpf (2009). (2005) optimistic. 106 foreigners. point (2009), particular, ham‑ mers home exist, systematically decided expense community. Leibfried (2010) treaties legislation distinction pure “state action” (or “solidarity action”) hand “economic (a jurisprudence Court Justice), dividing realms far extensive grey where mechanisms operate concurrently. occurs grand scale in, care. analyses inspired propose “horizontal clause”, emphasising strongly significance solida‑ rity ordering clearer guidance institutions, including Justice (Vandenbroucke, 2002c). Anne Lancker progressive representatives non-govern‑ mental organisations campaigned Convention. Via IGC, adapted text found Article 9 TFEU. Although find issue, unlike believe leads irresistibly liberalisation unchecked (moreover, perhaps Art9 TFEU will, time, towards balance respect). 4 room initiative correction mar‑ ket sovereignty: receptive politics deterministic suggests. from, things, Services Directive, Parlia‑ amended Bolkestein. transpires drafting 2011 Directive Parliament Council sought strike appropriate patients’ cross-border control either seek granting requirements; surrounding implementation foundations. 5 disagree who nonetheless intellectual heroes constitution economy. irrelevant. critical interaction sove‑ reignty An posted workers. Are applicable 4. Art. TFEU, Charter Protocol General Inte‑ rest. elements, Rhodes (2010), Armstrong Lenaerts (2011). 5. See brief summary viewpoint Justice. plementation determining factor mobility. mind pseudo “self-employed” persons entering live off benefits. 107 State, statutory wage? And unions feel regulations concerning violated posting workers? Notorious judgments (Viking, Laval) ques‑ tion unions’ scope matters prece‑ dence liberal movement. thought cases merits nuanced debate, diminish legislative change framework use. 6 regulation, tackled level: universal wages, decent (national) average wages; pos‑ ting bargaining, instance COHESION PAN-EUROPEAN COHESION: TWO PERSPECTIVES ON “SOLIDARITY” sections, unification, sovereignty, directions, coherently applied mutually exclusive. idea content luxury, necessity. designed supranationally policymaking happens neatly separated arenas naive. ap‑ plication undifferentiated Nor incompatible retain areas (e.g. legislating bargaining organisation care): able effectively responsibilities bear. is, turn, mini‑ mum standards, applicability every State. How go, organise democratically, stringent be, outside simple fact effective legitimate socio-economic urgent ever before. 6. Mario Monti raised his market, March Com‑ mission took adapt area; ended impasse. nuance assessment Court’s Armstong (2010). Bruun Bücker Commission’s proposal, arguing inadequate go enough. 108 foregoing shows entertain pers‑ pectives ‘solidarity Europe’: solidarity; motivated value Elsewhere, perspectives “evaluative dualism”, duality reduce one, goal. Historically speaking, always pursued enhancing natio‑ nal latter, so-called On Europe”, tended situated supposedly stake safeguarding impro‑ vement levels cohesion. virtuous pan-Euro‑ primary Europe. next illustrate implies. INVESTMENT AGENDA whereby enhanced? “pact” setting spirit reciprocity, investment, Anton Hemerijck, Bruno Palier myself. So‑ emerged 1990s response changes societies. “prepare” individuals, families societies various transforma‑ tions, changing career patterns conditions, emergence risks population ageing, generating res‑ ponses “repairing” damage caused failure, misfortune, poor prevailing inadequacies. new, societal trends necessitated ago, because adverse demography. reform-oriented dynamic sector Hemerijck Palier, 2011). high-quality childcare; training schooling, education; paid family life; later flexible retirement, accordance life expectancy; seizing oppor‑ tunities presented migration, things market; income protection capacitating service provision. Adding “minimum protec‑ tion” superfluous: pro‑ tection complementary pillars: replace resisted Vleminckx, 2011; February 2013 Commission Investment Package Commission, 2013), marks turn 109 thinking (at least of) Commission. package encompasses bundle initiatives, essence urging (including compre‑ hensive Recommendation “Investing Children”). addition, announces efforts increase Funds, linking stricter conditionality. Semes‑ ter (notably Country-Specific Recommendation, CSR) vehicle promotes. round CSR litmus test respect. At moment writing, unclear deliver underestimate resistance against introducing objec‑ tives adoption constitutes opportunity, challenge consolidation naive think resolve crisis. investments supportive sustainable, improved governance. balanced itself, close link schedule revised zero-growth prospects seeking quality spending administration (Tillhaye, approach, Rompuy, serve goal, constructive situation. drive procity. themselves. level, interest well-performing straightforward: lot evidence, science trump deliberation removed top-down, ‘one size all’ policy-making (i) manoeuver opt strategy (ii) constraining well-defined exploration learning achieve those Whatever weaknesses, persist operational. process, accountability gene‑ ral systems, protection. Minimum (for application floors, protection) 110 ideally introduced legislation. absent legislation, route enriching guide‑ lines standards. Children” good soft initiative, children’s rights. processes, Eurozone, enhanced regular meetings Affairs Employment Ministers Area “Euro Group Ministers” (M.J. Rodrigues, forthcoming). CONCLUSION: DEVELOPING THAT IS NO LONGER LUXURY, BUT NECESSITY Sections 2, outlined Europe”. Those carrying greatest weight, predicament rozone: ESU, deve‑ lopment organized relationship licy requirements them. core limited scope: variety shapes, depending attached engen‑ der broad support, adhere contradict summarily me‑ dium-term ved clear: reformist gives cherish credible cohe‑ sion carry highest 111 REFERENCES Armstrong, K. Governing Inclusion. Europeanization Coordination. Oxford: Oxford Press. Bowles, S., collaboration Fong, C., Gintis, H., Jayadev, A., Pagano, U. Essays New Economics Inequality Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge Bruun, N., Bücker, A. Critical II regulation courage strength imbalances, ETUI Brief No. 4/2012. P. Managing Fragile CESifo Forum, 12 (2), 40-45. (2009, (2013). 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