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CSB WORKING PAPER centreforsocialpolicy eu June 2012 No 12 / 05 University of Antwerp Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy Sint-Jacobstraat 2 BE – 2000 fax +32 (0)3 265 57 98 The EU and Minimum Income Protection: Clarifying the Conundrum Frank Vandenbroucke Bea Cantillon Natascha Van Mechelen Tim Goedemé Anne Lancker Conundrum1 Working Paper ABSTRACT Should be involved in governance minimum income protection if it should which role precisely? This question raises a complex policy conundrum We focus on proposal by European AntiPoverty Network (EAPN) an Framework Directive Protection order to examine three aspects that conundrum: (1) instrumental relevance protection; (2) unequal burden redistributive effort would required across Union were impose hic et nunc guarantee 60% or 40% median national all Member States; (3) impact dependency traps under same hypothesis illustrate each these observations empirically using cross-nationally comparable data living conditions (EU-SILC) levels (CSB-MIPI) Since harmonised scheme requires significantly greater budgetary behalf some poorer States Eastern Southern Europe about meaning solidarity within Enhanced cannot decoupled from enhanced among vice versa Simultaneously put positive pressure richer gradually improve overall quality efficiency their welfare regimes In this context prospect flexibly introducing more binding framework may become realistic Keywords: harmonisation convergence 1 working paper is pre-publication version Chapter 11 Palgrave MacMillan book May Reference as follows: F B N T A ‘The clarifying conundrum’ forthcoming Ive Marx Kenneth Nelson (eds ) Flux Correspondence frank vandenbroucke@econ kuleuven THE AND MINIMUM INCOME PROTECTION: CLARIFYING POLICY CONUNDRUM 3 Introduction not dual lies at heart chapter Saying difficult understatement are staunch defenders notion any decent society have place efficient also believe needs incorporate credible social dimension into its actions However designing specific entails range complicated problems ignored Sometimes one has brave enough ideas cherishes test argument counterargument hope they will emerge stronger That what we set out do consider need inclusion uncontroversial ‘fixed points’ inquiry Hence first sight our discussion confined versus those subnational institutions outcome fundamental normative exploration history initiatives shows hand only highly but constant flux described introductory Our reasoning realm depends other rapidly changing dimensions development polity upshot current reinforcement EU’s economic surveillance change prevailing views legitimacy opportunity with regard Clearly political ‘caring Europe’ now urgent than ever aim translate practical proposals; contribute sound proposals section list factors underlying see second sketch simple conceptual classification matrix domain third outlines Section four focuses contributing (seemingly limited) fifth conclude final judgement synthesis issues stake 4 NO Designing extremely least six reasons: diversity architectural systems; logic subsidiarity; nexus rights obligations relationship between input domain; finally ‘solidarity’ Economic obvious yet often underemphasized Using purchasing power parities (PPP) excluding Luxembourg outlier top end GDP per capita Bulgaria poorest 27 amounts 33% richest State By way comparison Mississippi US states 51% American state (likewise outliers rich small scarcely populated District Columbia Delaware Alaska) want include incorporated territory Puerto Rico comparison: Rico’s relative so calculated 36% implying position actually better divide even blatant terms at-risk-of-poverty rates poverty thresholds lowest threshold basis EU-SILC observed Romania; PPP less one-fifth (18 5%) highest exclude both Cyprus ‘special cases’ If Romania poor equal 31% (once Cyprus) calculate similar gap smaller; dispersion household incomes low registers percentage citizens confronted Bulgaria’s just 16% Luxembourg’s correction huge: euros figures 11% (without Luxembourg) 6% (with quoted further text dollars take account price differences (60% equivalent incomes) singles expressed reported Table coefficient variation (Member) (i e around unweighted mean standard deviation divided mean) whereas 15% indicating much lower Due 5 severe material deprivation i people who afford nine essential items5 : 35% population severely materially deprived compared 3% Sweden large 15 ‘old’ (the EU15) countries joined since 2004 EU12) apparent Figure displays individual (that net disposable income) EUwide For level figure proportion persons respective EU15 EU12 6 About below EU-wide no fewer 90% new limitations use here total without adjustment size Please note alternative procedures calculation inhabitants households) lead different rankings result strongly differing estimates (calculations based 2009; US: “Two-Year-Average Median Household State: 2007 2010” U S Census Bureau Current Population Survey 2008 2011 Annual Supplements downloaded http://www census gov/hhes/www/income/data/statemedian/index html (last accessed 2012) items refer ability pay rent mortgage utility bills; keep home adequately warm; face unexpected expenses; (4) eat meat protein regularly; (5) go holiday; (6) buy television (7) washing machine (8) car (9) telephone Relative converted standards 1: frequency distribution 2009 0 01 02 03 04 06 07 08 09 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 frquency Equivalized % EU27 Notes: EU15: 2004: Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovakia Slovenia well (since 2007) Incomes consumption (Eurostat line database) Source: UDB own calculations Considering number whole does (Marlier al 69) 7 sure inequality primarily matter 8 But (Milanovic 176) conceive ‘union’ ready homogenizing federal policies case (which turns assigns important levers level) Obviously comparative assessment record absolute nature indicator; Notten de Neubourg (2011) compare indicators wide indices (except well-known Gini coefficient) withinmember accounts 70% (own 2) Architectural general particular recurring theme reiterate Initiatives streamline challenge assistance schemes such insurance systems wage guarantees industrial structures Convention (and logic) dictates hierarchy benefits tier floors Raising require lifting reorganizing entire edifice; presuppose substantial performance labour markets embedded in) can offer sufficiently high wages Subsidiarity constitutes reason why defining principle stating matters best handled smallest centralized competent authority acquired status legal principle: shall act objectives proposed action achieved therefore scale effects (art Treaty Union) Apart there traditional cleavage ‘subsidiarists’ (who prefer minimize direct interventions fortiori protection) ‘federalists’ open intervention too) difficulty when comes subsidiarity debates considerable domestic implementation design 9 Kazepov Barberis document ‘a converging trend towards decentralization’ qualify ‘subsidiarization process’; notably activation in-kind provision increasingly defined local analysis process fragmentation: ‘as long relevant resources regulated redistributed degrees coherence higher might expect’ (Kazepov 2010 p71 words extent ‘framing’ linked complete partial funding Conversely leads following conclusion: euro-federalists easily reject appeal regional To positively where responsibility traditionally subsidiarization ongoing proponents develop strong arguments justify degree ‘EU framing’ parallel financial As present theoretical issue fourth related field (see Timo Weishaupt book) involves balance obligation seek employment falls deemed fit work Political opinions diverge conceptions imply right influenced contextual availability market opportunities individuals claiming apart fact how strike delicate makes operationalize reference albeit implicit importance formulated implemented agencies say hard legislation justiciable before courts; specify concomitant tangible citizens’ daily lives crucially depend judgements contexts output Any upscale framing must indicate served instrument enhancing desirable outcomes demonstrated initiative costs instance Employment Strategy increase budgets active guaranteed rather straightforward provide ready-made upscaling Finally argue clarify conception references ‘European solidarity’ carry contradictory meanings adds One difficulties frame ‘obstacles upscaling’ Obstacles necessarily immovable insurmountable move manage them clearly identified Some already been examined elsewhere add analyses sketching provides illustrations obstacles encountered leading us query Scope Initiatives: Conceptual Matrix With view mapping possible ‘ways out’ outlined previous useful classify two criteria: whether establish first-order inputs Further bifurcations added (notably create claim courts) two-dimensional suffices problem borrow distinction ‘first-order governance’ ‘secondorder Armstrong introduces his careful ‘Europeanization policy’ discussing future Open Method Coordination (OMC) Although expression appears passing remark Armstrong’s contrasting second-order illuminating robust According OMC essentially remain so): 10 ‘(…) governing means transmission anti-poverty strategy instead monitoring evaluating themselves adopted strategic approach analysing resulting ’ (Armstrong 2010: 295) substitutes processes essence substitute another seeks externally influence constituted system When define whereby choose outline strategies monitor results governed mandatory principles issued then clear ‘second-order Consider example education: imposes target school drop-out submit attain self-chosen objective secondorder governance; contrast upon education compulsory till age 18 highlights ‘input ‘outcome concerning refers reduce early leavers; leavers relates desired former exemplifies latter seems suggest ipso facto whilst inevitably implies turn point instruments residual constitute policy; goals makers pursue diminishing So oblige every adequate criteria ‘adequate assistance’ effect organizing focusses intervenes directly structure States’ Alternatively guidelines follow up vis-à-vis evolution level; Inclusion instantiates although weak sense non-binding Would make sense? indeed applies Eurozone attempt implement strict existing targets replacement understanding macro-economic external competitiveness qualified organize concept conceivable inclusion? single (say cut half given date) interference qualifies applied today practice combinations approaches adequacy assessed actual empirical produced (a of) combined vein firstorder seen neat dichotomy: continuum classifying concrete is: precision highest? common broad loose developing nationally precise predominantly thus effectively constraining elements introduced Notwithstanding fuzzy distinctions illustrates wish stage First-order Second-order Input Outcome C D moves ‘input’ ‘outcome’ (shifting A/B C/D 1) ‘first-order’ ‘second-order’ A/C B/D) deliberate attempts overcome postulate priori incompatible diversity; true strictly uniform application (For Anti-Poverty discussed next envisages definition ‘adequacy’ x% takes choice perceived most promising namely shift bottom row and/or column methodologies depicted Historically shifting pattern visible illustrated ‘harmonization’ ‘convergence’ Activist entrepreneurs Commission Council openly argued was feasible generation fitted Lisbon archetypal mixture flexible none enforceable recall guideline as: ‘Member setting raising rate reaching 70%’; stating: ‘Every unemployed person offered start months unemployment young adults (…)’ did Heidenreich Zeitlin overview) Gradually became stricter broadly unchanged orientations Today’s situated firmly boxes D; certain classified box address (e g start’ quoted) launched after Summit March interpreted admission forward 13 relying sanctions attached peer assertion ‘open coordination’ orientation clever maybe above echoes Martin Rhodes’s Rhodes emphasizes relations frames emergence largely ‘efforts pro-integration élites member-state vetoes neutralize operation double socialists/social democrats liberals’(2010 p 287) however concludes being solution ‘double cleavage’ fell victim cleavages tensions creation merely illusory ways arises: governance? Borrowing conceptualization reformulate studied interrelated questions: think protection? ii (only) outcomes? iii Is guaranteeing citizen country governance?10 phrase ‘should’ ‘can’ questions happenstance: desirability feasibility options critical comment posing Jonathan pointed key imposing sub-questions (i) (ii) answer abstracto content Zeitlin’s potential realization goal enabling secure access goods services participate fully life (One could recommendation understood experimentalist rights; Sabel 2010; 14 Brief History From outset cooperation integration underpinned intellectually 1950s report group experts International Labour Organization chairmanship Bertil Ohlin Swedish economist made pioneering contribution theory international trade (International 1956) starting law advantage according stimulate growth mechanism suffice effective improvement Against background major pacts supported post-war confidence spectre tax competition dumping French socialists saw threat prompting favour clauses Rome) averted through remains basic philosophy day Yet call ‘more never died completely Especially 1990s combating providing come fore prominently consistently areas recurrent briefly main steps (for extensive overviews Marlier 2007; 2010) led outcomeoriented stages oscillating (soft) subsections taken subsection discusses Recommendation Active 2020 remainder ‘Harmonization’ ‘Convergence’ gained momentum 1980s Initially remained quietly despite several not-so-successful agenda After 1970s successive ‘Poverty Programmes’ describing quantifying inconsequential resolution 1989 asserted ‘combating exclusion regarded part internal market’ (Council Charter year equally vague And run-up establishment 1993 preparatory documents conspicuously quiet harmonization security neither necessary nor 1987; Schmähl 1990) Still 24 1992 sufficient emerging (Ferrera 2002) calls ‘progressively cover situations possible’ It recognize ‘basic live manner compatible human dignity’ ‘to adapt necessary’ mind defines able subject ‘active vocational training obtaining work’ called ensure ‘whose condition render ‘receive help enter re-enter life’ (very) soft variant subscribed spirit aiming uniformity had hitherto intellectual came Indeed spoke ‘convergence policies’ Subsequently abandoned replaced On insight likely yield progress (due ‘unfeasible undesirable unnecessary’ (Deleeck 1991)) ambition (such introduction standards) reduction) left decide accordance requirements preferences deploy opt spending) shaped effectuating 16 Indicators supporting agreed including eradication developed supposed enable learn another’s experiences previously (Treaty Amsterdam 1997) extended Nice Laeken purpose measuring (Atkinson referred ‘soft coordination’: achieve manifold authors emphasized ‘mutual learning’ Hemerijck (2012) (2010 ‘experimentalist Others stressed model’ (Vandenbroucke 2002); coordination exert intelligent counter-pressure pressures due Stability Growth Pact relation quantification socalled ‘social indicators’ These measure things ends meet long-term households premature draw National Action Plan detailing intend situation ‘objectives-oriented originally intended (rather effort) laid foundation ‘…our concern feature member principle…Member agree free methods realized’ 2002 20) 17 At December 2001 consensus reached portfolio (on health housing Important agreement policymaking Various build relating risks jobless depth duration subsequently refined thanks excellent Sub-Group addition original designed pensions included indicator (by comparing line) variable evaluation Perhaps marks beginning phase They arguably articulation growing awareness connection ‘common objectives’ pursued merger OMCs crucial domains) undoubtedly facilitated New Agenda 2005-2010 back discourse ‘Active Inclusion’ (Frazer October excluded occupies central ‘design integrated comprehensive strategy’ ‘the support inclusive far concerned explicit mentioned Thus while building Recommendations somewhat encompassing respect treatment Nonetheless institutional prescriptive certainly avoids guarantees’ 282) lays down strands leaving dominant thrust mainly symbolic ‘high politics’ prove ineffective (Leibfried review organized quite Frazer testifies examination 2009) assess real assume influences entertained dismissed trivial Parliament Resolution goes step further: stresses ‘minimum integration’ concerned’ factions compelled introduce rejected Plenary Session approved study provisional slow Union’s time quantified indicators: risk unable determined items) very intensity 20 million criticized various First Graaf-Zijl Nolan component reducing ambiguous objection easy reach rapid decrease 2005 Europeans affected ‘severe deprivation’ Third response 19 loosely connected criticism concerns project ambitious: met course Moreover pointing problematic Reform Programmes socially short (European 2011) writing eventually respond recommendations observation achieving cautious over last years elaborate civil servants scope underestimated Second promises potentially follow-up formulates constrain choices (albeit lesser extent) whatever intrinsic weaknesses headline Will cheap talk focal Council? direction politics warrant optimism crisis attention focused regaining seem seat recent Public Management Institute Vanhercke Lelie EAPN Proposal Binding complement research (EAPN intelligently crafted combining type (an income); produces directive consist distinct principal chapters obliges 31 latest leaves possibility combination food clothing etc timeline amount ‘work-in-progress’: describes methodology ‘Adequate Schemes’ shared comprise transparent up-rating mechanisms coverage improved take-up participation experiencing shaping contain Mutual Information System (MISSOC) establishing beyond method determining consensualized budget Bradshaw Warnaar Luten devise dignity independent network non-governmental organizations (NGOs) groups fight against established 1990 partners combat 21 basket participatory consensualizes NGOs represent stakeholders approach13 challenges construction (Storms 2011a b) More specifically allowing landmark intermediate dignified Ensuring provisions measures roadmaps enforce Consideration remedies enforcement wronged lack allows legitimate interest judicial administrative equality non-discrimination directives arguing income; underestimate significance Storms (2011a) Rottiers elaboration interplay putting bettered ambitious gradual ‘work-in-progress’ performed entailed peer-review-social-inclusion eu/peer-reviews/2010/using-reference-budgets-fordrawing-up-the-requirements-of-a-minimum-income-scheme-and-assessing-adequacy 22 Importantly base treaties (in TFEU Functioning art 153 h) Relying article allow deal argues catalyst limitation h ‘excluded workable job reasons (age caring responsibilities difficulties…) expects ‘people Defining subset upward Admittedly intuitive evidence it; tear assistance: architecture EAPN’s scrutinized carefully Verschueren adoption exclusion’ mentions limited ‘persons deems uncertain legally non-legal listed Legally Guarantee: Three Interrogations revisit presents formidable link envisaged underscores formulation 23 uneven Both articulations characterizing (Seemingly Limited) Instrumental Relevance play either shape society’s indirectly safety benefit generosity’ (further abbreviated ‘benefit generosity’) average ratio package (including taxes contributions allowances child benefits) five model families elderly persons14: couple children (aged 14) lone parent 2011; volume)15 correlation generosity for: (abbreviated AROP60-ALL AROP40-ALL) 60; normalized (FGT1)16 AROP60 AROP40 realising 20% full-time follows ‘poverty reduction transfers’ (point iv below) questionable pension transfers An representative sample micro-simulation moment models like EUROMOD allowed near full-year AROP60-WI AROP40- WI)17; difference ‘post transfer’ AROP ‘pre obtained (pensions excepted) respondents’ (POVRED60 POVRED40) correlations pretend reveal causality association expect headcount truly many account: sources (assets liabilities) eligible test? Which behavioural conditionalities apply? How takeup assured (or maximized)? affect (AROP-ALL AROP-WI) Nevertheless (AROP-WI) relatively AROP-ALL (FGT1) especially non-take-up widespread correlate generosity) still FGT Foster 1984; Decancq forthcoming) measurement plays overview Corluy Erik Schokkaert post-transfer extreme zero posttransfer zero; nevertheless ascertain elimination definitions used correspond deviate concepts (different units equivalence scales disregards tests (but poverty) …) found lines 25 varies Hernanz 2004; Fuchs documented volume differ vary blur picture thing (non- )discretionary ups heating considerably receive (Van Furthermore Chapters less) generous categorical immigrants disabled elderly) restrict targeted discretionary reductions limits crossnational tenure composition family simulations Last large-scale surveys prone errors Kerm Verma Betti Consequently negative expected (AROP) slightly foregoing corroborated recipients (below Bahle non-means-tested usually larger means-tested Scandinavian (Sainsbury Morissens 2002; 2004) foremost reflect effectiveness 26 2: Correlation non-elderly All MS Old EU24 EU14 EU10 coefficients AROP60-ALL(post-transfer headcount) – 225 343 044 FGT1 (poverty 60%) 313 587** 031 POVRED60 (ppt transfers) 320 574** (post-transfer =< 316 535** 091 > 85 330 418 128 AROP40-ALL(post-transfer 404** 672*** 120 POVRED40 424** 624*** 137 AROP40-WI 478*** 785*** 001 279 475* 218 measured families: 2011); *** Significant 025; ** significant 050; Sources: CSB-MIPI display AROP60- ALL 28 becomes index largest proportions Spain Portugal Poland) Greece too comparatively Ireland having Austria Finland similarly Within find AROP40-ALL (FTG1 threshold) pre-transfer (mechanical) (POVRED); again divergent patterns yields strongest Countries generally work-poor households20 There exceptions particularly appear driven old negligible possibly stems inaccessibility nontake-up combines mediocre though attributable entitlement probably clout Explorative show increased period covered suggests automatic stabilizer reinforced times crises 29 non-correlation tool alleviating Rather drive message: regarding serve look Atkinson normally (though insignificant) segment tends associated edifice explains work-rich tend country’s propose together enables regression (reduction) dependent benchmark ‘above’ ‘below’ performers France records perform expected’ POVRED UK WI performances Italy worse benchmarking exercise cautiously because rely intervals them) signal nets Latvian devolved regions great interregional eligibility (Minas Overbye overestimate 30 typical city North (Milan) Italy21 (compared inefficient respects admittedly tentative confirm correlates simultaneously high) explained inadequate) se explanatory cross-country marginally market; contributory explaining aggregate marginalized conclusions area restricted practices exacerbates regulation detailed: detailed weakening priority positioning reconsideration ought operational needed fully-fledged well-functioning modest regime counts; curative capacity steering pondering take-over satisfactory Its consistency ‘bite’ strengthened Palier entertain (using guidance puts value complement? well-conceived generate inspires inclusion; reinforce good strengthen austerity vulnerable victims States? Why level? substantiates recognizes maintain popular fundamentally political: appropriate powerless; playing market) dignity) multi-tiered minimal balancing ‘market-making rights’ rights’; otherwise 32 sustainability congenial ‘OMC-driven constitutionalism’ accountable conceptualizing realizing […] function court-led constitutionalism prise nation demonstrate reconciled OMC-driven demand explanations exercises sovereignty values protecting 261-262) depart ‘are test’ substantive consistent ‘outcome-oriented’ guidance’ limit downward substantiate politically market-making conceived character creating genuinely really derived ‘avoids law/soft assumes imperative facing ones strengthening OMW conceptualized singular ‘mode making assemblage 33 Unequal Redistributive Effort Next interrogation sake suppose compel simplistic ‘redistributive effort’ euros) threshold:   max{ 0} max 100*    n x z = xi formula indicates ‘effort’ non-poor closed redistribution costless qualification ‘costless’ responses cost express governments running push average) spend countries; calculating overlook Data (all ages) non-equivalent (we 3) ‘living standards’ controlling modified OECD scale) big 34 3: Indicator eliminate CZ FR HU AT SI NL FI L SK MT IE CY DE PT PL SE EE DK GR IT BG ES V RO eq Note: 95% (cf relativity lift national-specific Reading note: 8% close illustrative purposes mechanical ignores incentive change: supply (more lousy low-paid jobs; effort); boundary exaggerate ‘cost’ totally misrepresent pure transfers; increasing examples protest ‘Robin Hood’ simulated cry historical reiterates capable raise spend) lot money committed redistribution: involving multitude redistribute government expenditure 71 35 rough indication unequally 5% others (Bulgaria Romania) 7% always gap: closing little effort; Denmark GDP/capita holds inefficiency Spanish Italian cluster greatest encompasses 4: LT LU LV 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0% 1% 2% 4% 9% inhabitant High Low vertical axis crosses horizontal weighted PPS Eurostat database (GDP/capita) 36 Finland) Spain) smaller looks ‘feasible’ disparity pronounced Whereas increases demanding disproportionately ‘better performers’ class falling obstacle kind foreseeable Now wonder low-work dependence expenditures construe counterfactual successful doing mitigate perhaps eliminating (2002) (2009) discuss universal Vandeninden examines (residual) (2010) 22) Starting Levy Lietz Sutherland (2007) consequences tax-benefit halved 18% 27% relate deviates Atkinson’s purely selective supplement granted whose estimated scenario unevenly distributed 37 conclusion moderate initial Poorer additional (tax) middle higher-income ‘middle incomes’ (Fahey Lelkes ‘internal’ vs panEuropean Poverty Threshold Top 1st quintile 4th Structural Funds (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) 122 055 764 528 439 239 580 491 133 615 574 322 011 699 423 490 846 237 540 762 755 983 933 934 793 602 838 138 557 559 590 995 831 163 007 688 061 227 655 041 119 477 707 451 220 241 760 205 275 710 869 Belgium 398 404 821 Germany 634 734 430 704 176 448 713 256 897 416 943 Netherlands 293 455 800 318 201 840 630 433 048 461 39 905 cut-off distributive nonequivalent (2006-2013) yearly (David Allen pp 246- 247) 38 Column ranks ranking (Romania) (Luxembourg) extremes diverging factor eight (Romania Slovakia) seven highlighted grey columns Columns expresses receiving presented Figures notable exceptions: side; remarkably ladder Let (according PPP) fellow improving corresponding (at contradict Or blunt way: boil segments cynically asking themselves? Before Suppose crossborder transfer compensate Given bitter resistance suggestion ‘transfer union’ belongs fiction stand transferred 2006-2012) deploys via matches fund match) extra available Funds; finances pan-European organization Europeanized (A conditional conditionality idea simply uses efforts Does implied necessitate funding? hinges pan-European? alleviation? implicitly drop perspective replace solidarity; Enabling parcel official ‘mission statement’ vocation cohesion interaction anachronistic continue ‘cohesion insight: Claims justice arise get cooperation; legitimizes claims thorough 40 evaluative dualism irreducible reduced trade-off let alone algorithm collapsed twin run assessing; pan-European; convincing Someone object rationale taking clear-cut ‘having GDP/capita’ gap’ Greece) spending underdeveloped contrasted well-developed (Hungary 40%) guarantee: obviously boils externalizing failures unwillingness redistribute… foundations Sangiovanni (forthcoming) Fahey competences 41 ‘internal (to conform exacting demands avoid externalisation failure) hand? wellknown solidarity: delineate delineating Solidarity mutually interdependent Impact Dependency Traps destroy tension claimants minimum-wage earners Europe-wide minimums inactivity trap eleven States: recipient 25% 30% wage; claimant 14% Less United Kingdom raised 50% hypothetical (between %) Only augmented switch heterogeneity incentives world subtle underscore 42 Net (full time)* assumption 40-50-60% Raise (Vienna) 61 92 53 79 127 76 115 86 129 58 87 107 51 77 73 110 55 83 66 99 70 105 75 112 88 132 (Catalonia) 78 116 * Based statutory (Denmark Sweden) except Austrian collectively “Österreichischer Gewerkschaftsbund” “Wirtschaftskammer Österreich” leather fur sector severity coincide genuine lacking enormous activated rarely (Cantillon & struck duties reasonable inadequate presupposes prevent marginal 43 Conclusion: Caring Care Demand Efficiency Everywhere suggested rebalancing input-oriented outcome-oriented experience decade mandated information validated statistical apparatus utterly acquire gain prominence Forcing fall heaviest negatively bear rule ‘unequal burden’ agreements unison consideration aimed covering child-rearing standardized incrementally 44 rich’ poor’ affluent) confronts discarded: implementing dispense ‘efficient virtuous circle (domestic) (pan-European) What this? bring forth? prosperity combine rules regions? discussions no-go meanwhile stuck? opening disposal (possibly today) (introducing Fund leverage) Meanwhile seriously bite (this investment 2020) indicated Fundamentally opposition anything resembles collective sovereign debt creates stalemate stability De Grauwe conflate 45 Acknowledgement thank Dirk Neumann Koen Annette Freyberg helpful usual disclaimers apply References Cohesion Policy: Extending Bargain Meet Challenges’ H Wallace M Pollack R Young Policy-Making Oxford: Oxford Press 229-252 Governing Europeanization E Bourguignon O’Donoghue Utili ‘Microsimulation Union: Case Study Pension’ Economica 69(274): 229- 243 Reinstadler Distribution Financial Context Presented Conference (Warsaw March) 34p Hubl Pfeifer Safety handbook Bristol: 271p J (1993) Budget Standards Aldershot: Avebury ‘Between dream reality … Anti-poverty Model’ P Ploscar EU: Interaction Law Antwerpen: Intersentia O Pintelon den Heede (2012 Reduction Capacity Protection’ 46 Better Worse Richer (1989) Ministers Affairs Meeting September Combating Exclusion [1989] OJ C277/1 Conclusions jobs smart sustainable Brussels ‘Household joblessness Journal 21(5):413-431 Managing Fragile CESifo Forum 12(2) 40-45 K Bosch Vanhille data’ (eds) (1987) ‘Un programme d’action communautaire’ (ed L’avenir la sécurité sociale en Paris: Economica: 229-243 (1991) lessen zekerheid Acco: Leuven drawing assessing Comment Peer Review Assessment Namur November Appendix Progress Report Objectives EU-Wide Measure Sociological 23(1): 35-47 Ferrera Matsaganis ‘Open poverty: process’ 12(3): 227-239 Greer Thorbecke (1984) ‘A Class Decomposable Measures’ Econometrica 52(3):761-766 Schemes Across Synthesis Brussels: DG Equal Opportunities ‘Strengthening Learning Past’ Natali VAN DAM Towards EU? 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CSB WORKING PAPER centreforsocialpolicy eu June 2012 No 12 / 06 University of Antwerp Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy Sint-Jacobstraat 2 BE – 2000 fax +32 (0)3 265 57 98 Individual Employment Household and Risk Poverty in the EU A Decomposition Analysis Vincent Corluy & Frank Vandenbroucke NO Analysis1 (UA) (KU Leuven UA)2 Working Paper ABSTRACT In this paper we explore missing links between employment policy success (or failure) inclusion relying on Labour Force Survey (EU LFS) Income Living Conditions SILC) At side equation our focus is share individuals at risk poverty 20-to-59 age cohort The analysis proceeds two steps first step considers distribution individual jobs over households thus establishing a link rates household Following work by Gregg Scutella Wadsworth ‘polarization index’ defined terms difference one hand hypothetical living jobless assuming that distributed randomly across other actual Actual changes joblessness are decomposed (i) due to polarization (ii) changing structures second decomposes at-risk-ofpoverty basis risks (non-jobless) households; (iii) (changes would expect if no occur) (iv) proposed technique does yield interesting insights into trajectories welfare states have followed past ten years Keywords: work-poor at-risk-of-poverty rate convergence 1 Funding research was provided Net SILC2 Second Network EU-SILC (http://www essnet-portal eu/net-silc2) We thank Paul De Beer Bea Cantillon colleagues Brian Nolan participants seminar KU UvA precious comments usual disclaimers apply Correspondence vincent corluy@ua ac be INDIVIDUAL EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLD AND RISK OF POVERTY IN THE DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS 3 Introduction Is best recipe against people working age? level citizens which they live participation labour market significantly diminishes financial However what seems evident less country Prior crisis Lisbon strategy could regarded as qualified field least assumes there been causal relationships agenda growing Europe On though largely failed deliver its ambitious promise concerning Notwithstanding generally higher well declining some Member States saw increase many standstill record Rather than general conversion anti-poverty overall picture national at-risk-of rates: increased where were traditionally low decreased high Hence it important understand those statistical apparatus Since an determined income belongs relation must all analyzed level; hence will establish measures As explain Section face difficult choice different conceptions Our time frame use SILC 2005 2008 refers observations 2004 2007 label these analyses ‘2004/5-2007/8’ This short linked data limitations but also per se want study refer year prior survey spans (except Ireland United Kingdom) ILObased definition realities observed immediately before whilst ‘work-poor’ (see 4) 12-month period To summarize complex construal 4 trajectory (24)4 during ‘good economic years’ 2004/5-2007/8 longer term present concerns frames: 1995-2008 (on LFS 1995 en 2008) 11 countries 2000-2008 23 inquiry should enable us verify empirically explanations disappointing trends era put forward Vleminckx (2011) wit outcome partly attributable failure reduce number or despite increasing evolution 2004/5 2007/8 then configuration (2008 2010) Changes can further shown below benchmark ‘random jobs’ applied not carry normative meaning message read follows understanding: extent positive avoidable signals suboptimal situation state (nonjobless) Thus integrate (the employment; poverty) single principle allow assess impact ceteris paribus practice make such integrated hard conclusions draw only tentative Bulgaria Romania Malta yet available 5 Although caveats warn simplistic interpretation decomposition pursued uncovers puzzling combination disparity within Convergence fundamental markets since albeit unequivocally outcomes (in 20 59) boom presumably upshot growth intergenerational shifts new decreasing Anglo-Saxon Scandinavian same evidence suggests social Polarization levels sizes constitute structural background features states; together with differences spending help their performance regard reduction cumulative incremental size structure play role pre-transfer performances priori plausible assume factors contributed significant lack test hypothesis; shows did noteworthy span except But diminish importance policy-makers attach presence numbers possibly problematic conditions based more subtle distinction ‘work-rich’ allows enrich set out 6 Employment: Alternative Definitions Stratification Sections using ILO concept According employed hour week member bracket 20-59 so cut ‘jobless rate’ ‘household joblessness’ conception distinguishing from Applying measurement intensity Eurostat framework 2020 consider it’s 50% latter notation wp0 former (joblessness) population reference group exactly 5: ’adults’ belonging excluding full-time students (that members aged 20-24 status inactive) Similarly checked underlying radically used survey; working-age For calculation made samples alas leading divergent results 7 contrast order calculate ratio total months (excluding students) worked theory them persons who reported having part-time estimate full-time-equivalent computed usually hours interview indicator calculated matter degree (no activity whatsoever versus limited activity) exclude full both when count (to classify ‘jobless’ ‘not jobless’) define considered ‘full students’ 18 24 ‘inactive’ whether comprised 22-year-old non-student adult depends nonstudent problem discussed Graaf appendix timeframe applied: whereas (income period) identified may no-one happened even experienced irregular spells before; metric Unsurprisingly average value under review : 9 5% 15 7% i e surprisingly (pwp0 ) while typically 5) lower Denmark Greece Norway France Estonia Two First measure comparable ILO-based pwp0 (i looking back twelve taking account do here) non-linear most countries: equal zero experience close nonzero (European Commission 2011 p 157 Chart 21) Prima facie fact includes substantial pensions prepensions 59; early-exit schemes better unemployment assistance benefits offer 8 appears influenced studied; preliminary here suggest groups considerably ‘early-exit generation’ 55-59 excluded Figure 1: At-risk-of-poverty non-jobless (ILO One reasons why chosen instead 20% focusses yields subgroup strictness takes frequency normal wanted sufficiently large safeguard significance analysing subdivisions European begins drop increases beyond explains Simultaneously (for adults) comes down adults exceeds ibidem) 0 10 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 EL DK NL FR SE PL AT IS HU SK IT IE FI RO LU SI ES PT CZ CY UK LT BG DE EE LV pwr (wi > 0) pwp = 2: work-rich (EU2020 Individuals Jobless Workpoor Households Who confronted (ILO-concept) intensity? probit EU-15 EU-10 reveals strong stratification seen distinguish old because might sociological post-communist societies today’s ‘old’ ‘new’ quite similar; apart associated being reflects deep-rooted disadvantages born come rather early lives underscores challenges activation strategies reach successfully 00 < >= 3: Marginal effects probability (ILO) unsurprisingly result part mere ‘mathematical’ effect absence pooling reveal singles run ‘household’ peers larger (peers gender education studied analysis) incur pooled children influence household: small negative cancelling each Whatever see disabled individuals11 whose educational attainment secondary With age-result intuition Compared 20-29 30-54 line given exit marginal refine ‘within’ ‘between’ conditional shed light question That specific subgroups instance variable captures person’s own perception main respondent indicates permanently or/and unfit -0 sex (male) (30-54y) (55-59y) marital (married) (medium) (tertiary) origin (non-EU born) wa hh child wp (eu2020) jl (ilo) very similar fine-grained 4: There profiles (jobless household) disability Also outspoken different: reduces (compared singles) relatively two-adult three-plus has smaller direction relates non-EU residents Their compared EU-born resident conclude ‘joblessness’ (wp0 ‘work poverty’ 50%) dynamics Some relationship cross-country correlate way 59 Table Cross-sectional correlations post- concepts Correlations post-transfer … (*) (ⱡ) 2006 ∆ – 08 58 51 48 34 housheolds 09 04 35 42 32 31 16 36 27 37 53 78 73 62 69 76 49 54 67 79 NOTE: These imply causality nor significance; merely serve work-poverty obviously opposite sign Given earlier assertion through surprising negatively show correlation covered Different prima counterintuitive correlates positively mitigated posttransfer prevailing ‘non-jobless’ weight Third comparison among (individual 13 other) segment Finally cash benefits; transfers Together elements pursue illustrates Contrary surveys rates; at-risk weakly inferred (a coefficient ∆wp0 focuses Trends referring Germany) diminished substantially sample decline percentage points improvements example Spain respectively much point households’ everyone work) ‘mixed declined Those explainable pure shares understanding stress [to elaborated] 14 reflecting completely illustrate Spanish case ‘mixed’ 17 dotted lines how consisted households: rise decrease household’ 21 spectacular somewhat quarter half (thus making employment’ median situation) essence mathematical corollary (measured points) ‘expected’ gap (6 expected 2-adult (11 calls additional ‘polarization’ provide examination (2-working age) exceptional Specific consistent range depending distributed; respect diversity prevails Distribution mixed (2008) propose counterfactual evaluate Like Lorenz curve predicted occur So fewer) random Formally (using ” simplify notification)
1   − with: ℎ    ℎℎ         ℎ    ℎℎ
 !! ”    !  #    ℎ  ℎ ℎ     !        100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 Share + Total Expected size= Obviously lead things noone Ceteris decreases distinguished ‘predicted function (X) (Y) presented If identical estimates appear diagonal Countries above encounter distance magnitude cardinal start Southern (most saliently Spain) Luxembourg had Negative theories division non-work (Danziger Katz 1996) added worker (Cullen Gruber 2000) All exhibited displaying Italy remained throughout entire approached became grew unequal Belgium display highest evenly 6: emphasize expression ideal context job opportunities ‘positive polarization’ kind ‘Matthew effect’: concentration advantage (say partner someone already employed) partners jobless); ‘negative appreciated form solidarity fair scarce either maximally ‘randomly cost: need supported cost sense equilibrium vein underscore ‘mathematically’ mean carries societal It means modernizing society mitigating (risk nonemployment) becomes progressively (percentage point) corresponds EU11 PTNL ‘probabilistic’ sense) examined Continental EU15 observes upward pattern beta-convergence catch-up process sigma-convergence dispersion values index 39 particularly By characterizing beginning reduced exception moving group) Why index? any diverges certain (defined size) Over divergences type change referred ‘within-household shift towards without itself; ‘between-household Combining insight assertions about determinants rates’ four terms: non-employment affect rate; argument illustrated simple hypothesis whole consists n implies n2 ‘individual wp/n (dwp/dn 2n) interpreted shares); elasticity ( dn dwp always reasoning etc Beta-convergence 81 initial 1995-2008; standard deviation sensitive outliers unlike Omission 66 35; Appendix combined region explanatory factor 19 between-household upon degrees polarization; within-household Such shift-share following (from 2008):
2 Observed ∑ ∆9 :0 5>9  @AB C 9DA (contribution n) >9:0  @A B structure) ∆>9[0 5
9 5F @AG ‘between polarization’) ∆F H:0 ‘within k K maximal πk wpk actually add up ‘predicted’ wpe (1) which: (unconditional) nonemployment -6 -8 -9 01 05 -5 29 97 -4 25 03 65 33 -3 02 26 -2 43 84 85 -1 75 41 72 46 68 74 95 96 64 44 07 91 99 (column column 5); 4); 7) fallen rising (Table 3) exert pressure strongly contribution workless component Most divergence stems increasingly skewed Moreover types Only equally notwithstanding suffering lone mothers inactivity traps tax- benefit systems 7: restricts consideration EU-27 minus Sweden Finland Malta) Between again beta (albeit robustly) eleven availability stretches real Members: (with 75) 25) onwards movement outspoken: (standard 88) 50) trend driven mainly female (cf power robust eliminating starting P signalling 71 EU-23 EU-11 elaborate elimination sustainability -12 -10 22 below) characterized 72); position still extended families overview shorter Romania) (Bulgaria Poland Slovakia) Latvia Slovenia demographic impact: boosted Kingdom Cyprus); Germany lesser Cyprus Netherlands Austria five clusters emerge 8: EU23 EU27 (exc MT) 55 89 56 38 82 94 77 61 93 86 83 45 63 92 dictated primarily useful cut-off describing accelerated after 2000; marked deceleration timing uniform evolutions pace women entered offers explanation Feminization Markets (and origin) three greatest approach gaining construction ‘conditional counterfactuals’ variety residence compare ‘unconditional only) various indices et al Subsequently (as percentage) absolute (again unconditional explained combinations predominantly applies regression techniques male seem reflect follow clear others displays neither proportion post-secondary (ISCED 5-6) increases); 0-2) every minimum 73% explained) 109% 97%) 1995-2008) cases: (2000-2008 61%) (1995-2008 62%; 67%) 146%) 57%; 64%) (1995- 128%; 223%) 82%) 70%) 59%) 104%; 106%) Portugal 51%) mildly Other ‘increased homogamy’ (increased matching couples partners) homogamy sees reality formed (not request) Integrated Risks preceding section described ‘upward Did convergence’ joblessness? Certainly relative (where rate) improvement employment) examine decomposing at-riskof-poverty written weighted (pwp dropping superscript (pwr) Labelling wr wp) write:
3   where: ”    ” 
ℎℎ ℎ
 as:
4   LLLLK  LLLLLK 
L LLLLLLK t=0 t=1 A M M A etcetera subcomponents contributory factors: work-rich; ii work-poor; iii (2007) long-term 1980 rightly stresses simply calculates decomposable 20-59) informing mechanical caution: accounting device subcomponent intrinsically reducing workpoor achieved deliberate stricter conditionality generosity Or push go Conversely become workrich accept end pay scale marginally group… Diverging implying categories play… examples invalidate caveat Using equations (2) (3) (4) possible equation:
5
∆ ∆ requires decompose rely considerable obtained de Graaf-Zijl circumspection called connecting 2005-2008 conceptual makes retrospective (setting zero) summarizes figures estimated 28 2004/5-2007/8: key (analysis 2005-2008) ∆pov wp2005 pwp2005 ∆wp pwr) ∆pov(60+) -7 -20 -19 avg st dev 2007/8; ∆pwr ∆pwp pwr)∆wp pwr)∆P *** ** * 47 (actually observed) 95% (***) 90% (**) 85% 9: 2004/5-2007/8; performed EU24 (“a” average) awr awp (apwp apwr) ∆wpE ∆P Conclusions sets exercise: upswing trajectories: Belgium: (based caveat18): neutralised progress significantly; German (SILC-)trajectory: offset presents case: protection UK: (helped reversal British market) (notably Slovakia Lithuania Czech Republic) led Lithuania) reinforced Importantly however last elderly sometimes employment- growthbased generational favour entertain serious doubts validity (Frick Krell They SOEP crucial components Hungary diverging begin hypotheses purely wrong describe truism ‘policy failure’ (although existence neglected discussions evaluations) How households? Differences explaining configurations rates? shaded bars disparate: slightly realised Republic Slovakia); notably checking occurred contrary apparently (but exist figures) short-term event say one-percentage-point structurally adds experiencing little certainly insignificant ‘structural’ unavoidable Policies policies patterns (non-)participation Ellwood Meyer Rosenbaum 2001; Grogger 2003) Rates Work pointed weak 1) constructed quadrants comparing 10: Overall identify Finnish rate;20 stark tempting indicated footnote refrain drawing -15 pov Irish risks; Polish finally Swedish Basis now formalized dividing provides basic Iceland graphical summary Wp2005 )∆wp 11: -apwr) atrisk-of-poverty varies Netherlands) Estonia) Correspondingly ranges around (∆wp0 +5 Hungary) diverse ranging +1 observation cross-sectional supra) highly diversified ∆pwp0 ∆pwr0 incorrect assert modest ‘main culprit’ board complicated contextualize segments reason incorporates 60+ (hereafter ‘the elderly’) Not catching-up weakened disregards Poland); regards sigmaconvergence disregarded) simultaneously diverse: 17) Sweden; just lost gained ground although work-rich) words witnessed shift; holds too changed hardly vis-à-vis cases remarkable ‘outliers’ twenty-six outlier sufficient paint picture: greatly dwarfed confirms figure 7b far 1990s 2000s concerned represented striking counts: (an points); resulted downside (of pwr0 recorded (none EU) rich (though 90%) cohort; opposed elderly) successful reaching Comparison Decompositions decompositions proceed caution Yet tell stories visual Figures readily gives greater diminishing (since hold Despite emerges confirmed General focussed proves relevant differentiating employment: shape forces modernization feminization markets… nevertheless individual/household including gradually negative: southern gains declines dependency familial enhanced additionally Experience US) prevalence ‘positive’ cannot ways attribute solely successes specifically ongoing multidimensional target exclusion work-intensity find justification ‘stand still’ coincides Both evolutions: clearly inegalitarian historically base assessment SILC); third effort emphasis (successful activation) (much generosity); fourth Economic socio-demographic dominant condition public (including benefits) refuel reconnect sound creation necessary complementarity inclusive References Brandolini Viviano E (August Extensive vs intensive margin: Changing Perspective Rate 31st Conference International Association Research Wealth St Gallen Switzerland paradox investment state: Journal 21(5) 432–449 Cullen J (2000) Does insurance crowd spousal labor supply? Labor Economics 18(3) 546–572 Danzinger L (1996) discrimination Behavior Organization 57–66 Dawkins Sctella R (2002) Growth Australia Australian Review 133–154 M deprivation 413-431 D T Impact Earned Tax Credit Reforms Marriage Arrangements National 53(4) 1063–1106 Developments Brussels: Joint Report Frick (2010) Measuring Panel Surveys Germany: SOEPpapers Multidisciplinary Data n° Berlin: DIW sides story: measuring inequality Royal Statistical Society: Series (Statistics Society) 171 857- 875 Reconciling Theory Britain Population 139-167 (2003) limits EITC female-headed Statistics 85(2): 394–408 (2001) Welfare earned tax credit supply Quarterly 1063–1115 OECD (2009) antidote poverty? In: Outlook Paris: Sala-i-Martin Regional Cohesion: Evidence Theories 1325–1352 Protection Committee Jobs Progress evaluation dimension Strategy F Disappointing trends: blame? 450–471 Indicators discuss existing definitions demarcations populations ranking Currently indicators wpα α list six and/or finds publications literature (LFS) Community (ECHP) (SILC) subset partition according limiting take calculating households) determine frequently jobless) potential “beneficiaries” whom indicator; consist overlap necessarily detail seemingly minor translate analytical entail differ ’employment’: ILO-concept recent scientific debates (a) (b) (c) (d) sources currently Definition I II ‘older’ online23 determines Students composed included Someone he/she paid self-employment Computation dependent retired persons) Additionally ordinal introduced III derived Wadsworth’s (20 24) (nominated) head retirement (60 over) IV developed 2010 introduces belong declared see: http://epp eurostat ec europa eu/tgm/table do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsis c090 http://ec eu/eurostat/ramon/nomenclatures/index cfm?TargetUrl=DSP_GLOSSARY_NOM_DTL_VI EW&StrNom=CODED2&StrLanguageCode=EN&IntKey=16624585&RdoSearch=CONTAIN&TxtSearch=work %20intensity&CboTheme=&IntCurrentPage=1 0-59 fulltime equivalent threshold V (ordinal) adopted Indicators’ Sub-Group (ISG) (SPC) breakdown ‘at intensity’ sum (without part-time) (aged 16-64 inactive youth 16-24) workable demarcated 16-24 VI uses delineations source sole replaces binary Looking (work flexible lowest learns stringent offering broader 64) propensity (both measures) controlling employees ranks (dependent source) intensity) Minor rankings discussion Besides evaluated respects produce know re-calculate adapting current EU2020 table 2011) Column website produced ourselves indicating correct (5) retain 2) perspective equals exceptions (6) alter (hardly) Netherland obvious potentially grow narrowing (7) adapted 18-59y 15-75y notable switch recently headline targets force adjustment causes Temporary captured prominent Any remaining (8) related observe cent Luxemburg purposes dedicated cause concern researchers interested look closely 0–59 poor ISG (definition V) VI) controls improve comparability 2009 findings arise Controlling confined prevalent exceed translated trade-off full-employment (0 <= wi Thirdly exceeding Consequently composition differs Because rudimentary detailed underrepresented (at Complementary fullemployment overrepresented demarcate overrepresentation strongest defintion (current week) (nbr year) continuous WI=0; 0

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LE DEFI SOCIAL EUROPEEN LA POURSUITE D’UN OBJECTIF N’EST PLUS AUJOURD’HUI UN LUXE POUR L’UNION EUROPEENNE MAIS ELLE EST DEVENUE UNE NECESSITE (1) PAR FRANK VANDENBROUCKE (2) professeur à la KU Leuven C’est pour moi un grand honneur de pouvoir être titulaire Chaire Den Uyl Joop a été dans période des années 60 aux 80 leader socialdémocrate influent en Europe En effet nombreux ont ceux – ce compris avoir profondément influencés par sa manière d’approcher politique juin 2011 Jan Pronk rédigé remarquable billet d’humeur intitulé « tant que mentor » une dizaine leçons il y résumait le style qu’homme La première leçon était intitulée : Leçon numéro N’arrêtez jamais d’apprendre Ne pensez les faits parlent d’eux-mêmes et vérité est établie fois toutes Examinez antécédents liens moins évidents Continuez vous poser questions exactement j’ai l’intention faire aujourd’hui INTRODUCTION Voilà plus 50 ans nous posons question savoir si européenne doit revêtir dimension sociale active C’était déjà cas avant création Communauté économique composée 6 pays au départ Et sein d’une Union qui regroupe 27 Etats membres on continue se cette On ne compte nombre publications évoquant faiblesse l’« Celles-ci sont trop sou- 195 Exposé prononcé l’occasion nomination comme extraordinaire Universiteit van Amsterdam 7 2012 Je remercie Rita Baeten Tuba Bircan Bea Cantillon Paul De Grauwe Ri Ridder Steven Engels Joep Konings Kim Lievens Erik Schokkaert Chris Segaert Anne Van Lancker André Poeck Rompuy leurs commentaires et/ou contributions ponctuelles J’assume évidemment responsabilité du texte Vandenbroucke-FR qxp 23-1-2013 15:03 Page vent l’expression lamentations stériles propos caractère inaccessible l’Europe crise actuelle pourrait mise profit inscrire l’agenda européen Les ; créer faut disposer réponse sans équivoque suivantes pourquoi telle substance celle méthode utiliser parvenir Il assez étrange constater l’on n’a manifesté jour qu’un intérêt relativement limité d’un point vue normatif coopération devrait (3) explique je me concentrerai tout sur partie mon exposé sera consacrée l’examen série d’arguments faveur peut approche étonne son plutôt destructeur Vous pourriez réagir disant Est-ce bien moment mettre évidence points faibles dossier relatif défense ? J’applique toutefois ici citée pas prendre fait cause s’il s’agissait Dans ces arguments séparer bon grain l’ivraie L’Europe plante intellectuelle élevée coton prospérerait milieu protégé où évoluent personnes intentionnées même sensibilité Pour conférer force idées auxquelles adhérez convient tester rigoureusement déduis entre autres suit voici dix quête description claire Modèle social pouvait encore considérée exercice utile mais vraiment indispensable elle devenue réellement existentielle l’Union Le système financier présent confronté problèmes urgents court terme n’enlèvent rien qu’à long soit survie Cela signifie concrètement qu’en fiscal compact (un pacte budgétaire) besoin (contrat social) consensus base citoyens européens jouer rôle A cet égard orientation commune matière d’investissement créerait perspective importante Un tel éga- 196 REVUE BELGE DE SECURITE SOCIALE – 1er TRIMESTRE domaine philosophie normative également s’agit thématique peu développée existe fameux appel Habermas (2001) correspondance Parijs Rawls (2003) littérature relative global justice l’UE occupé place Ce n’est très récemment débat né fondements normatifs voir (2011) Sangiovanni (2012) Nicolaïdis Viehoff renseignée lement porter obligations exigences mutuelles réciprocité intégrante relations institutionnelles chaque Etat membre repose individus veut dire l’union monétaire survivra satisfait portée argument limitée ou autre naisse modèle visé puisse survivre principe plusieurs formes selon délibération attribue poids notions Mais rapport observation j’ajouterais ceci bénéficie large soutien devra conforme objectifs états-providence commun deuxième j’illustrerai brièvement quelques devraient figurer agenda potentiel Mon analyse exhaustive Bon importants abordés réguler fiscalité proté- ger financement concurrence fiscale malsaine troisième j’identifierai quelques-unes urgences relatives nécessité restaurer l’unité m’étendre governance lien social-démocratie raison laquelle traiterai dernière socialdémocratie dont souligne l’absolue exige compromis historique familles politiques soutiennent gouvernements celles présentes Parlement L’expression exagérée situe d’emblée challenge constitue-t-il catch 22 sociaux-démocrates désireux mieux profiler 197 1 POURQUOI EUROPE LES INEGALITES EN Afin contextualiser partons constat L’une difficultés réside diversité nos systèmes sociaux leur histoire seulement Au l’inégalité revenus aussi grande qu’aux Etats-Unis revêt simplement d’autres douterait coefficient Gini paneuropéen (une mesure généralement utilisée exprimer revenus) près égal (4) Aussi longtemps association d’Etats destin pouvions permettre négliger Certes général inférieure existant divers américains composent considérable Si tient Luxembourg état extrêmement riche PIB habitant exprimé parité d’achat (PPA) alors l’Etat pauvre Bulgarie équivalent tiers Pays-Bas (en EUR cela représente beaucoup dixième) applique raisonnement Mississippi moitié riches (5) Aux salaire minimum niveau bas quoique uniforme soutenu taux horaire fédéral 25 USD l’heure titre comparaison mensuel estimé Eurostat 122 standards 10 % dernier élargissement contribué figure illustre répartition fais différence ancienne l’EU15 nouvelle l’EU12 198 Sur l’enquête EU-SILC 2009 distribution revenu disponible net ménages converti parités 0 352 l’EU27 (calculé Tim Goedemé) représentatif communiqué l’OCDE 378 écarts prix régionaux peuvent considérés négligeables Voir Brandolini (2007) Burkhauser Couch (2010) Milanovic tenant non particuliers Même inclut Porto Rico d’Amé- rique position habitant) meilleure Vandenbroucke al FIGURE REPARTITION DES REVENUS DANS L’EU15 ET L’EU12 Mechelen Goedemé l’axe horizontal représentés disponibles nets l’ensemble Européens ils standardisés (rendus équivalents ») afin tenir taille composition ménage Tous mesurés exprimés médian ligne pointillé seuil pauvreté utilisé étant défini zones situées gauche indiquent population dessous respectivement Une paneuropéennes ressortir qu’environ 15 disposent situant sous nouveaux 70 fossé d’Europe prospères particulièrement Roumains (je désigne ainsi classe moyenne roumaine aisée) pauvres comparés Néerlandais (6) 199 vise (qui néerlandais) appelle aisée Exprimé roumains percentile infé- rieur lequel équivaut 60% néerlandais (Vandenbroucke tableau 3) 2 QUATRE ARGUMENTS FAVEUR D’UNE DIMENSION ACTIVE POLITIQUE commence positif va l’encontre discours négatif pré- domine souvent lorsque évoque l’intégration L’Union joue progressiste l’élaboration non-discrimination partant principes nationalité (pour sujets l’UE) d’égalité travail hommes femmes créé juridiques solides appliquer fondée sexe l’âge l’origine … Stephan Leibfried suggère constituer voie principale évoluera entité hétérogène dominée vetos l’est peut-être seule possible contexte reformuler façon suivante aurait-elle allant au-delà mes yeux quatre envisageables visée rempart contre dumping moyen protéger souveraineté nationale conséquence inévitable Monétaire Européenne cœur projet trois premiers nature instrumentale quatrième Bien qu’ils découlent l’un l’autre s’excluent mutuellement importe c’est quel convaincants séparément conjointement vais sent passer revue Argument premier procède l’idée qu’une intégration poussée harmonisation exerce pression baisse développement plupart avancés forme agressive parlons d’où ma formule (proche slogan) synthétisant possibilité faisait l’objet Ohlin datant 1956 avec Spaak fut Economique Bertil (politicien suédois président parti reçut tard Prix Nobel d’économie théorème d’Heckscher-Ohlin) différences coût salarial concernés étaient liées productivité qu’il fallait craindre salaires due libéralisation commerce insistait cependant postulat suivant l’éventualité ultérieure évolution divergente serait corrigée ajustements change monnaies (Organisation Internationale Travail 1956) actuel réserve importance 200 l’histoire n’ donné tort Parallèlement processus d’intégration assisté parfois spectaculaire nationaux élargissements successifs immanquablement induit convergence ascendante Banque Mondiale qualifié CE véritable machine (Gill Raiser 2012; Lefebvre 2011) (7) s’est avéré davantage crainte réalité remarquer certains domaines contrairement doctrine combiné marchés haut notamment santé sécurité lieu 90 (8) noter hausse dépend situation chômage généralisé arriver ait dessus exemple globalement faible syndicats débouche tributaire rapports discussion nuancée thèse simple levée entraves commerciales frein progrès paraît priori uniquement basée fonctionnelle prévenir solide D’ailleurs inégale trouverait confrontée problème insurmontable tellement grandes suffit penser minimums impossible définir level playing field (des conditions sociales uniformes) économiquement viable développés certain impact (9) d’exercer pressions l’Allemagne qu’elle instaure national contraire procèdent raisons paneuropéenne (10) 201 chiffres révèle concernant divergence régionale (infranationale) Ceci produit parallèlement marché unique vertu Single European Act J’entends termes absolus fixerait médians loin d’être évident tâche fastidieuse absolue renvoie Pisani-Ferry expansive Allemagne durant décennie précédente augmentation allemands s’inscrire stratégie légitimité (11) formulation pointue pessimisme Scharpf (2009) Ferrera (2005) optimiste (12) développe conflit esquissé complète ferait distinction (i) conséquences libre circulation d’assurance bismarckiens (ii) type beveridgien centrés citoyen (iii) régimes d’assistance (iv) services prestations concentre d’assurances bismarckien ouverture discriminer n’exclut basé droits (« cotisations autrement dit propre modèles n’en reste règles généreuses d’accès pourraient subir mobilité transfrontalière avancé n’ai développé référence l’autonomie facto (la marge manœuvre politique) trait juridique axe recherche Fritz Maurizio chercheurs L’idée sous-jacente intrinsèque part impératifs libéralisé d’autre liés cadre prévue derniers sous-entendent limites participation délimitée mécanismes solidarité vont audelà fondamental celui logique d’« fermeture paraphraser implique Bulgare établi jouisse mêmes l’assistance soient assortis nationales strictes droit soumis d’abord satisfaire suffisante permettrait Belgique shopping médical restrictions couverts organismes assureurs contrecarre planification l’offre soins arrangements tarifs D’autre autorités aient considérer ni ouvert étrangers particulier insiste l’architecture institutionnelle systématiquement tranché 202 détriment communauté traités législation font l’ action d’Etat pure (ou orienter jurisprudence Cour Justice) séparation nette vaste zone grise opèrent parallèle passe échelle analyses Leibfreid m’ont incité présenter clause horizontale souligner l’importance ordonnateur donner institutions européennes (et donc moyens s’orienter 2002c) représentants organisations gouvernementales d’obédience défendu Convention Grâce Conférence intergouvernementale retrouvé adapté l’article 9 Traité fonctionnement (TFUE) s’agisse considère génère forcément incontrôlée l’Article TFUE contribuer rétablir l’équilibre égard) (13) Des initiatives prises réceptive déterministe apparu lors directive amendé proposée Bolkestein ressort Directive Conseil veillé trouver juste équilibre transfrontaliers patients gestion (14) 203 n’y Charte Protocole Services d’Intérêt Général éléments Rhodes Armstrong Lenaerts tous résolus invoquer dynamique (entre visait ayant contrainte d’adopter réaction défensive Néanmoins joué important évaluation l’influence n’interdit rechercher l’octroi semble afférents relèvent œuvre celle-ci (15) suis dès désaccord figures intellectuelles préférées asymé- trique économie Cette nuance l’analyse matiè- re interactions critiques socio-économique (à allusion réduite tension résulter générosité L’effectivité définis mettent ensuite l’ai indiqué interaction critique maintien d’affectation sont-ils applicables travailleurs détachés n’ont cours quelles actions peuvent-ils entreprendre lorsqu’ils estiment accords règlements transgressés détachement Quelques jugements tristement célèbres Justice (Viking Laval) remis possibilités d’action telles matières semblé privilégier libéral suivie arrêts mériterait initiative législative souhaitable Mario Monti soulevé mars Commission pris effectivement élargir champ Bruun Bücker pensent proposition satisfaisante Ils affirment fondamentaux primer libertés économiques plaidoyer (convaincant) montre décision décideurs veulent 3 Comme considé- rait l’harmonisation n’était nécessaire car par- 204 synthèse l’approche adoptée oeuvre concrète facteur déterminant l’impact réel Cf problématique pseudo-indépendants viennent vivre tait l’hypothèse évolutions socio-économiques divergentes seraient corrigées réduit néant hypothèse euro Ben Chu l’éditorialiste The Independent résumées mai has to become ‘country’ new beast if the is survive étayer défauts structurels inhérents conception l’absence banque centrale forte derrière monnaie garantie déposants gouvernement central budget constituerait tampon automatique crises prise fort Bref devenir nation J’ajouterais conclusion facile tirer unifiée pense l’euro décrite manichéens issue Dès futur rapproché impliquerait condamné échouer faux croire stabilisation c’est-à-dire s’agirait l’affinement systè- inter-états chocs asymétriques constitue thème théorie monétaires optimales (ZMO) illustrer l’aide schéma (16) 205 crée biens collectifs précieux risques spécifique inhérente l’essentiel assurance équitable idée Andrea arrive reciprocity-based internationalism L’intérêt distingue clairement concept ancré trouve naturel upscaling concepts pose définie Toutefois j’estime criticable égards utilise risque désigner limitations auxquels confrontés catégorisés paradigme Plus fondamentalement demander mission limite-t-il vision mets l’accent reciprocity (réciprocité) n’assimile outre l’assurance cas) argumentation dépasse diversion purement fonctionnaliste (cf 4 ci-dessous) expliciter avantages union résident réduction transactions (les coûts activités éliminés l’incertitude variabilité diminue) comparibilité accrue participants profite entreprises consommateurs Lorsqu’une stimule transfrontalier contribue l’accroissement richesse favorable effets précités croître participe l’inconvénient perte instrument modifier Cet s’avère différemment générale lorsqu’un victime choc asymétrique l’emportent désavantages doivent combiner suffisamment positive symétrie flexibilité croissance correlées qu’elles parallèles capacité interne s’adapter déterminé d’adaptation l’emploi S’il ceux-ci fin profitable degré représenté vertical trade-off prend descendante groupe au-dessus supérieurs atteint diagramme optimale réunies Nous d’Amérique trouvant ZMO trouvera d’avantages Supposons confortable soi 206 TRADE-OFFS UNION MONETAIRE 207 lorsqu’il d’absorber triques biais transferts budgétaires diminue mots déplace vers ZMO’ (dans sens deux flèches grises) présuppose redistribution permanente participent s’agir mesures estimer l’aléa moral parle d’aléa flux permanent ressources structurel postposer l’ajustement requis temporaire cyclique (A d’exemple théorique mécanisme cofinancement allocations initiale longue durée activé partir satisferait condition primauté ) donnée invariable surveillance destinés D’après p 110 précisément l’objectif Sixpack finalisé 2010 réussit harmoniser flèche bleue) qu’apparaît complémentaire préventive prévient l’asymétrie stabilisateurs moindre avis viabilité n’implique choix dualiste d’union met face trade-offs limitent options Ni socialement neutres recouvre d’ajustement ressentis difficiles pénibles tels directe (plutôt dépréciation inflation élevée) faciliation migration emploi Souvent associée procédures licenciement souples etc partisan rigides prêter attention l’économiste britannique Richard Layard fondateur Centre for Economic Performance théoricien d’activation poursuivie soutient certaines rendent gens malheureux salariale opposé d’insécuriser (17) nombreuses significations absolument neutre 208 l’argument welfare-to-work essaya convaincre choisir dure franco-allemande jugeait indulgente d’introduire parce écrit-il devrions tendre d’emploi [il entend là décentralisation concertation volonté d’échanger augmentations salariales (Layard 2005) 209 surtout viser pratique difficile dissocier fonction stabilisatrice dépenses publiques fonctions (18) poursuite est-elle option essentiellement budgets salariaux paramètres correct nécessite-t-elle évidente l’illustrer éviter malentendu précise certaine pension suive l’évolution l’espérance vie d’atteindre (étant entendu naïf vieillissement individus) doitelle veiller généreux pensions retrouver iné- vitablement dette publique élevé unité produite finalement l’avenir) d’organiser (plus grande) (infé- rieurs) importante) (moins importantes) permettant dépit précoce continuer critères tenable justifier Bargain fournit illustration intéressante organisés Européanisation partielle fiscaux résulterait grands groupes gagnants perdants nécessite pas) s’avérerait concevoir heurte complexe gagnent perdent recourir batterie relatifs comportement employeurs (19) 210 B augmentent accrues prélevées bruts brut connaît financera d’âge concerne donne budgétaire scénario alternatif satisfont concevable l’autorité fasse économies alloue subsides additionnels simpliste Comparée engendrer demande produisent résultat (et/ou syndicats) resserré pallier d’éventuelles pénuries l’immigration n’acceptent compressibles d’argument relève sphère l’économie l’occurrence présupposons enclins vit ses différente traduire compromettrait cohésion moné- taire précède variables entrent jeu vaut déséquilibre d’instruction souffre pénurie qualifiés excédent comparativement s’attendre élevés parvient déséquilibre) insuffisante déficit compensé importantes programmes qualifiées) (comparativement B) détermine refus entraînera supplémentaire paiera (relatif) manque résulte d’asymétrie débouchera final accumulation factures impayées prêt public augmenter prouver l’applicabilité universelle choisit rendre s’avérer valables l’instruction entraînerait excédentaire qualifiées déclencheraient réactions provenance feraient sorte d’augmenter Ensuite genre limitera s’appliquera vrai constituent cohé- sion compter l’immigration) recherché quels diverger répondre tranchée précèdent employés énoncés stratégies minimale quand plausible supranational tandis arènes régionales distinctes doute naïve défend depuis choisisse direction valable l’être autant éventuellement dimensions Avant conclure permettez-moi revenir décrits s’ajoutent celles-ci feux l’actualité bancaire collective basculent mauvais méfiance vis-à-vis titres liquidités transformant solvabilité grâce l’émission com- 211 mune d’euro-obligations Tout formuler objection d’intérêt laxistes maintenus disciplinés l’accumulation dettes freinée mutualisation permette objections appliquant différents (20) Ces supplémentaires nuancées persuasion l’action banques dette) dépasser efficace focalise m’appesantir cruciaux analytique Qu’est-ce conclusions normatives précises développer indique desquels d’accord L’union rend incluant cognitives synthétiser Quels comment stabiliser viens économistes (21) Robert Mundell père luimême formulant 1973 alternative originale 1961 raccroche (Mundell 1973) monétaristes portent regard différent partisans Keynes Lors lancement adhérait monétariste gouvernementale I confiance quelle implique-t-elle Quelle Moesen (De 2009) propositions (d’une partie) souveraine similaire exigée prisonniers résoudre dilemme réaliser amélioration Pareto acteurs l’intérêt personnel Fuest Peichl aperçu alternatives 212 opinions émises coïncideront entièrement aboutir décisions cohérentes subsiste doutes incertitudes quant quelqu’un s’immisce J’émets âge crois susceptible scientifiques procéder institution scientifique assise Du serait-il raisonnable plausibles élément (l’âge pension) minimums) d’explorer d’obtenir réaliste double notre paneuropéens sommes prêts payer s’agirait-il sommes-nous remplacer sachant toujours redistributif convenir benchmarks communs organiser terrain connotation reprendre fondamentales signification vitalité 2012) prétends répond assertion trouvé toute dispose rencontrer passé souligné d’attribuer obtenir minimal d’apporter solution développements 213 technique Jean l’adaptation Sud traitée unilatéral Etant réussi sert chacun assumer L’Allemagne accepter légèrement supérieure adaptation Espagne stabilité l’Espagne effectuer réformes structurelles) s’applique Nord overkill d’é- volution hausses dépassent largement observées l’euro) responsabilités partagées d’accords clairs d’efforts mutuels seul partenaire charge restauration compétitivité humaines fervent qu’agent société précédent décrit l’homo reciprocans economicus aime quelque chose retour argent efforts) mentalité boutiquier attache individuelle capable compassion retrouvent vulnérable vulnérabilité propres antérieurs rester) contributeur serve efficacement remplir seaux fond pertinent bénéficient s’efforcent eux d’en retirer positifs Conçue ciment 2010) Samuel Bowles tendance coopérer partager tempérament procure aucun bénéfice individuel (22) conditionnelle notion destiné servir fondement l’état-providence convaincante directement transposable institutionnel justement traduit sanctionner déviant sanction coûteuse l’impose reposer moralité transgression normes sanctionnée cf ci-dessous 214 significatif remarquablement synthé- tisée récent Editorial Constitutional Law Review WTE DN assurément réalités imbriquées d’évolution Comment attribuée définition Où s’arrête collectif est-il (par via transferts) Devons-nous adhérer morale stricts (où fautifs punis fautes commises) consé- quentaliste punir sévèrement finira non-fautifs) engagement mutuel transgressable perpétue (23) nécessairement l’entité stratifiée s’appuyer durable essentielles (24) fragilité variable profonde sense of common purpose permis réunifiée (T)his was deep that made monetary and political in Germany Put differently were endogenous driven by existence this it inconceivable would have started with without having centralized making transfers between regions or unified security system This weakly developed at Level 113) partagée Outre éthico-philosophique fondamentale conçoit entités politiques) doivent-ils quences m’étendrai sujet clair absolu Renforcer faciliter renforcer 215 conférence 1999 Ministre belge Affaires qualifiée Méthode Ouverte Coordination Durant suivirent continué insister coordination ouverte cognitive 2002a 2002b) superflu devenu fonctionnalistes Partant construction déduite fonctionnel réussite proposé Jürgen l’essence way life exercées globalisation mobilisation Par expression lui inspirée Lionel Jospin) mode caractérisé l’inclusion culturelle forts Plusieurs militent interprétation intervient répétée indéfiniment légitimé l’a maintenir paix finalité suffire entreprise d’ailleurs leviers influences non-économiques degrés cosmopolitisme aller défendus différencie stricto sensu manoeuvre Sa croissante assume tâches évoquée auparavant lancée Sommet Lisbonne siens rappeler lutte pauvreté) respectant subsidiarité constamment critiquée caractè- soft Imaginons hard 216 Natascha moi-même avons procédé simulation obligerait instaurer éliminerait totalement fixé L’UE imposerait obligation stricte concrétiserait (comme digne) (25) Quel d’effort exigerait-il apportée PER CAPITA EFFORT REDISTRIBUTION EXIGE ELIMINER PAUVRETE simulons EAPN abordée qualité combinée transfrontaliè- meilleurs n’entraîne disparaît parfaitement délimitation adéquate remarque faisant suite ci-dessus 217 L’effort exigé atteindre objectif (évidemment ambitieux) hic nunc pourcentage l’effort varierait 5 Tchéquie France Hongrie Lituanie Roumanie consentir effort situent l’Est incluent faille éliminer fournir énorme Prima facie attribué Cependant comparons comparables d’impact espagnole inefficace ramène l’introduction doive poursuivre explicite priorité doit-elle répartitions doivent-elles équitables redistribuent s’améliore Belges réduire duale divergents l’ampleur cercle l’une d’algorithme indicateurs indicateur d’évaluer résultats d’indicateurs explicitement aspirent améliorer contrôlés d’évaluation réductible oblige D’un poursuivi considè- débats situé sauvegarder surveiller 218 d’améliorer (voir Fahey 2007) auraient-ils externe Ou traduirait-il l’externalisation échecs attribuable l’inefficacité l’exemple espagnol précité Mes co-auteurs concluons contraignante poserait aider responsables dynamisme l’efficience destinée lutter L’objectif clé pied vertueux d’accroître brèvement CONCLUSION DEFINITION pèsent lourd introduisent moralisatrice réponses effectives permettent focaliser unilatéralement qu’objectif présupposent démocraties cruciale conçue stable exécutable fonctionnelles l’affirmation contenu suppose distincte dominé réflexion mène l’érosion 219 compensée correspondre l’application incompatible sauvegardée spécifiques l’organisation santé) members d’assumer incombent évoquées éminemment complexes jusqu’où l’organiser démocratiquement faut-il gouvernance légitime urgence QUE FAUT-IL INSCRIRE L’AGENDA L’EUROPE accroître contenant esprit Hemerijck Palier l’investissement neuve actuels voire tenu démographique capital humain soutenues secteur comprend six axes assurer accueil d’enfants haute investir formation l’enseignement niveaux activité rémunérée famille reporter flexibiliser départs retraite opportunités offertes protection émancipatrice neuf dresser bilan réalisations pratiques d’engranger évaluer quoi défendue abouti basant perceptions L’année passée évalué volet Stratégie Vleminckx 2012a 2012b Cor- 220 luy étudier thématiques nuancé diversifié (26) douloureux mener financière fragile réalisés balayés universellement acceptée perçu orientations erronées débouchent chô- mage galopant parmi l’attention focalisée inadéquate) poursuivies identifiés maux espagnols espagnoles commis erreurs impardonnables BCE Qu’en l’angle J’ai insisté investissement devaient complémentaires (Cantillon sections illustrent auquel plan RELATIF L’INVESTISSEMENT DESEQUILIBRE CRIANT MATIERE FORMATION relation séries d’activité jeunes (de catégorie 24 29 ans) obtenus 2000 enquêtes PISA disciplines mathématiques sciences compréhension l’écrit appliqué recette package totalité somme parties manqué cohérence 221 TAUX D’ACTIVITE JEUNES ANS RESULTATS intention suggérer direct s’expliquerait (27) écartant qu’être frappé corrélation Grèce l’Italie combinent affirmé conteste éducationnel Abstraction faite offrir perspectives Italie consciente défi headline targets figurant 2020 quittent prématurément l’école pays) hauts 222 prouvé données générations représentées génération mesurons d’activité) éducationnels) recoupent 15:04 malheureusement négative appartient Italiens Espagnols Grecs eux-mêmes desquelles comptes placer fixés Car axé l’austérité n’arrivera second PROTECTION EFFICACITE TRES DIVERSE 5a 5b diffèrent L’axe totales exprimées recouvrent âgées interventions frais logement dispositifs garde préscolaire extrascolaire (0 12 actif proportion standardisé Laeken 2001 lesquels utilisés (Atkinson 2002) pouvant après divisée égale exposées pensions) inclus observé (ce rendu 5a) comprendre précaution modifie (sans obligés travailler) (28) 223 paraître) sous-jacentes traitées circonspection utilisées Ainsi Suède Finlande surestimé efficacité sous-estimée inefficaces correction taxes affecter significative inefficacité Deken prononcer jugement prima l’efficacité comparer ratio pauvreté/dépenses observés primaire travaillent répandu éclairage corriger étatprovidence octroyant génèrent pièges l’inactivité état-providence lui-même test consiste régression qu’illustrent lignes représentent (exprimée national) considéré (29) 224 l’interprétation tests d’estimations critère supérieur limite l’intervalle Evalués Lettonie assouplit inclure Royaume-Uni Portugal assimilée échec facteurs ampleur considérées efficaces explication consacrent montants non-pensionnés apparaissent paraître surprenant comprenions qu’insuffisamment causes caractéristiques fragmentée Comparés (allocations familiales d’enfants) (30) tirée récurrente confirmée globale bons livrer examen approfondi s’explique familiale (juste Sud) obtiennent 225 5A DEPENSES SOCIALES 2007/8 5B REDUCTION RELATIVE 226 TRAJETS POLITIQUES DIVERGENTS DURANT ANNEES DU BOOM (2004/5 2007/8) chemin parcouru favorables 2008 trajets divergaient 2004/5 d’ambitieuses déclarations avaient formulées définit d’Européens inférieur trajet satisfaisant diminué (Decancq seuils prévu Allemands allemand…) ambitieux Sous angle eu aucune stagnation états traditionnellement quelques-uns Pologne fortement Irlande) augmenté Allemagne) Lorsque évalue perfor- 227 15:05 mances enregistrés constate disparité galitaire exemples Inspiré Beer Vincent Corluy 2004-5 2007-8 décomposé travaille) polarisation emplois travers sensiblement d’illustration d’adultes chuté individuels aurait pu quasi identique (Corluy dû modernisation différé responsable METHODE UTILISER ARRIVER QUELQUES POINTS CLES correspond permet relier Sans j’é- voque clés Deux paraissent essentiels garantir soutenir péril quantité importent efforts considérables subissent concrétisation original Lisbonne) succès l’appel équilibrée macro-économique 228 émettant euro-obligations fonds statu quo deal J’estime enfin devons (31) accountability l’optique efficiente judicieux intégrer l’actuel excellence élaborant conditionnalité proposent ONG l’EAPN (32) disposons repère programme cadrent consacrer concrétiser 20/20/20 d’énergie tertiaire 20 millions dressé l’é- tat d’avancement l’Annual Growth Survey (Commission encourageant plans combinées d’inclusion chiffre en-deçà visés consister relever contradiction réinscrire résolument 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EUROPA: DE SOCIALE UITDAGING EEN BREDER EN SOCIAAL DOEL IS GEEN LUXE MEER VOOR UNIE MAAR NOODZAAK (1) DOOR FRANK VANDENBROUCKE (2) Hoogleraar KU Leuven Het is een bijzondere eer voor me om de Den Uyl-leerstoel te mogen bekleden Joop Uyl was van in jaren zestig tot tachtig niet alleen belangrijke sociaaldemocratische leider Europa Zijn manier denken en politiek bedrijven had op velen – ook mij grote invloed In juni 2011 schreef Jan Pronk mooie column over ‘Den als leermeester’ Hij vatte daarin Uyls stijl politicus samen tiental lessen De eerste les luidt volgt: ‘Les één: blijf studeren Denk nooit dat feiten zich spreken waarheid gevonden Zoek achtergronden minder hand liggende verbanden Blijf vragen stellen ’ Dat precies wat ik vandaag wil doen INLEIDING Al meer dan 50 jaar debatteren we vraag of het Europese beleid actieve sociale dimensie nodig heeft zo vijftig vóór oprichting Economische Gemeenschap 6 landen nog steeds nu hebben Unie 27 lidstaten aantal publicaties waarin zwakte ‘het Europa’ beschreven wordt tellen vaak gaat klaagzang met weinig effect: onbereikbare betreurd actuele crisis kan opportuniteit vormen agenda zetten Eerder scherpe definitie waarom hoe ‘waarom’ 197 Oratie bij benoeming bijzonder hoogleraar aan Universiteit Amsterdam 7 2012 Rita Baeten Tuba Bircan Bea Cantillon Paul Grauwe Ri Ridder Steven Engels Joep Konings Kim Lievens Erik Schokkaert Chris Segaert Anne Van Lancker André Poeck Rompuy ben dank verschuldigd punctuele commentaar en/of hulp onderdelen dit betoog verantwoordelijkheid ligt natuurlijk Vandenbroucke-NL qxp 23-1-2013 15:14 Page samenwerking vanuit principieel normatief standpunt zou moeten kreeg heden vreemd genoeg relatief aandacht (3) Ik focus daarom eerst deze vraag; deel mijn leg kort argumenten pro ‘sociaal rooster Mijn aanpak zal u misschien verrassen nogal destructief ‘Is tijdsgewricht zoeken naar zwakke plekken pleidooi sociaal Europa?’ kunnen reageren pas hier echter Pronks ‘eerste Uyl’ toe Een mag bepleit worden alsof vanzelfsprekendheid We kaf koren scheiden geen intellectueel kasplantje zijn beschermende omgeving welmenende gelijkgezinden gedijt Om ideeën die je liefhebt sterk maken moet er hard Uit besluit onder volgende: terwijl zoektocht heldere omschrijving model’ tien geleden kon afgedaan nuttige maar echt noodzakelijke oefening existentiële kwestie geworden financiële bestel staat brandende kortetermijnproblemen langere termijn ‘sociale unie’ voorwaarde laten overleven Concreet betekent behalve fiscal compact (een begrotingspact) social heb verder basisconsensus sociale’ inwoners rol gemeenschappelijke gerichtheid investeringsbeleid daarbij volgens belangrijk Dergelijke consensus gaan elkaar ze eisen: wederkerigheid inbouwen institutionele relaties tussen zoals binnen elk steunt mensen Hiermee gezegd muntunie beantwoordt eisen rechtvaardigheid stelling voorleg beperkter: nagestreefde model stand komen opdat Inhoudelijk zulke principe verschillende richtingen uit; opvattingen gewicht toebedeeld krijgen Maar voeg observatie nood wel volgende toe: breed draagvlak hij beantwoorden doelstellingen welvaartsstaten gemeen Ook normatieve politieke filosofie ontwikkeld terrein Er bekende oproep Habermas (2001) briefwisseling Parijs Rawls (2003) literatuur ‘global justice’ speelt EU Pas zeer recent ontstaat debat onderbouw Europa’: zie daarvoor (2011) Sangiovanni (2012) Nicolaïdis Viehoff vermeld 198 BELGISCH TIJDSCHRIFT ZEKERHEID – 1e TRIMESTER tweede illustreer enkele werkpunten uit uiteenzetting beoogt volledigheid Belangrijke discussiepunten blijven buiten beeld spelregels bepalen inzake fiscaliteit voorkomen inkomensbasis druk komt door ongezonde fiscale concurrentie derde stip urgenties betrekking name noodzaak eenheid economische korte lange herstellen zonder governance leerstoel verwijst sociaaldemocratie eindigen verwijzing waarvan onderlijn vereist ‘historisch compromis’ families regeringen steunen parlement aanwezig uitdrukking overdreven stelt meteen uitdaging scherp: historisch compromis catch 22 sociaaldemocraten zoek eigen profiel? 1 WAAROM ‘SOCIAAL EUROPA’? ONGELIJKHEID IN EUROPA reliëf geven feitelijke vaststelling redenen worstelen vraagstuk enorme diversiteit onze systemen hun geschiedenis inkomensongelijkheid even groot Verenigde Staten neemt heel andere vorm Voor wie daaraan twijfelt: pan-Europese Gini-coëfficiënt gangbare maatstaf inkomensongelijkheid) ongeveer gelijk VSA (4) Zolang verzameling lotsbestemming konden ons veroorloven feit hoofd zien Zeker algemeen veel beperkter ongelijkheid Amerikaanse staten; groter staten Als superrijke Luxemburg beschouwing laat bbp per inwoner uitgedrukt koopkrachtpariteiten armste lidstaat Bulgarije één rijkste Nederland (in EUR tiende) gelijkaardige redenering maakt 199 Op basis EU-SILC 2009 bedraagt netto-beschikbare equivalente huishoudinkomen omgerekend 0 352 EU27 (berekening Tim Goedemé) OESO geeft laatste representatieve 378; regionale prijsverschillen spelen vermoedelijk verwaarloosbare Zie Brandolini (2007) Burkhauser Couch (2010) Milanovic FIGUUR 1: INKOMENSVERDELING EU15 EU12 Vandenbroucke Mechelen Goedemé Mississippi helft (5) minimumloon erg laag uniform peil ondersteund federaal 25 USD uur Bulgaarse minimummaandloon Eurostat geraamd 122 zelfs standaarden 10% Nederlandse uitbreiding Figuur brengt inkomensverdeling waarbij onderscheid maak ‘oude’ ‘nieuwe horizontale as figuur staan huishoudinkomens alle individuele Europeanen; gestandaardiseerd (‘equivalent’ gemaakt) rekening houden grootte samenstelling huishouden Alle inkomens gemeten verhouding mediaan stippellijn duidt armoedegrens 60% inkomen grens pan-Europees gedefinieerd wordt: oppervlaktes links duiden welk bevolking beneden respectievelijk vergelijking pan- 200 Met weglating outliers Zelfs arme Puerto Rico meeneemt relatieve positie PPP) beter et al 15% 70% nieuwe kloof meest welvarende minst groot: koopkrachtpariteit blijken ‘rijke’ Roemenen (waarmee bedoel: betere Roemeense middenklasse) arm ‘arme’ Nederlanders (6) 2 VIER ARGUMENTEN ACTIEVE DIMENSIE HET EUROPESE BELEID begin positieve ga daarmee tegen louter negatieve toon overheerst betekenis eenmaking progressieve ontwikkeling nondiscriminatiebeleid Vertrekkende non-discriminatie nationaliteit (voor EU-onderdanen) loon werk mannen vrouwen sterke juridische gecreëerd principes geslacht leeftijd afkomst … Stephan Leibfried suggereert toenemende rechtbanken hét spoor verdere entiteit heterogeen beheerst veto’s enige mogelijke Zo bekeken dus méér anti-discriminatie vier argumenten: beoogde is… dam dumping; schutkring rond nationale soevereiniteit; onvermijdelijke consequentie Muntunie; kern zelf project drie instrumenteel vierde karakter Alhoewel voortvloeien sluiten overtuigend ieder geheel overloop 201 maatstaven rijk men beschouwen middenklasse Uitgedrukt gezinsinkomen Roemeen percentiel 80 bevindt lager gelijkstellen (Vandenbroucke Tabel 3) 15:15 Argument dumping argument vertrekt idee vergaande integratie harmonisatie leidt neerwaartse geavanceerde agressieve aanneemt vandaar (enigszins sloganeske) samenvatting ‘een opwerpen dumping’ vormde voorwerp Ohlin-rapport 1956 Spaak-rapport legde creatie Bertil Ohlin (de Zweedse partijvoorzitter later Nobelprijs economie Heckscher-Ohlin theorema) ging ervan verschillen loonkosten betrokken mate samenhingen productiviteit ongerust diende lonen ontstaan vrijmaken handel onderlijnde uitgangspunt: uiteenlopende ontwikkelingen zouden optreden gecorrigeerd aanpassingen onderlinge wisselkoersen (International Labour Organisation 1956) huidige context onbelangrijk voorbehoud Prima facie déze ongelijk gegeven Parallel soms spectaculaire uitbouw Opeenvolgende uitbreidingen steevast geleid opwaartse convergentie; Wereldbank omschrijft EG echte ‘convergentie-machine’ (Gill Raiser 2012; Lefebvre 2011) (7) Sociale vrees gebleken realiteit Nu opmerken bepaalde domeinen contra Ohlin-doctrine marktintegratie wèl gekoppeld hoog niveau veiligheid gezondheid negentig (8) ‘opwaartse’ ‘neerwaartse’ convergentie afhangt context: langdurige omvangrijke werkloosheid overhand halen bijvoorbeeld omdat vakbonden overal hangt af maatschappelijke krachtsverhoudingen doe recht genuanceerde discussie voeren opheffen handelsbelemmeringen probleem vormt vooruitgang lijkt prima baseren functionele vermijden 202 Dit cijfers; zegt niets (sub-nationale) divergentie gebeurde parallel eenheidsmarkt Single European Act Laat daar overweging toevoegen Indien ongelijke rem zet onoplosbaar aard denk minimumlonen onmogelijk level playing field definiëren ontwikkelde economisch haalbaar impact (9) Duitsland nationaal zinvol is; (10) 2: soevereiniteit ongetwijfeld grondig bespreken situeert problematiek facto autonomie beleidsmarge) domein onderzoekslijn Fritz Scharpf Maurizio Ferrera anderen basisgedachte intrinsiek conflict bestaat imperatieven vrije markt grensoverschrijdende mobiliteit dienstverlening enerzijds anderzijds samenhangen gemeenschapsvorming gebaseerd verankerde rechten plichten (11) veronderstellen grenzen afgebakend lidmaatschap solidariteitskringen; doorbreken solidariteitskringen fundamentele con- 203 ‘level field’ bedoel absolute niveaus bv vastgelegd gemiddelde verre evident opgave Verder verwijs Pisani-Ferry loonontwikkeling expansiever verlopen voorbije decennium; verbetering Duitse passen legitimiteitsargument verwoordt pessimisme scherpst (2009) (2005) optimistischer flict logica ‘opening’ ‘begrenzing’ parafraseren (12) impliceert Bulgaar dezelfde bijstand Nederlander strenge voorwaarden koppelen; stipuleert tegenover systeem voldoende opgebouwd toelaten België ongeremd shoppen gezondheidszorg gedekt zorgverzekeraars planning aanbod afspraken tarieven doorkruisen overheden noch buitenlanders open punt waar hamert architectuur stelselmatig voordeel beslist ten koste benadrukt verdragen basiswetgeving duidelijk zuivere ‘staatsactie’ (of ‘solidariteitsactie’) ‘economische actie’ uitspraken Hof Justitie oriënteren); scheidslijn solidariteit helder brede grijze zone marktwerking gelijktijdig schaal geval analyses inspireerden ‘horizontale clausule’ belang ordenend sterker benadrukken instellingen (en Justitie) duidelijker oriënteren 2002c) vertegenwoordigers niet-gouvernementele organisaties voerden campagne Conventie Via IGC (Intergouvernementale Conferentie) vond tekst min aangepast weg artikel 9 VFEU (Verdrag betreffende Functioneren Unie) 204 geschetste slechts gedeeltelijk volledige analyse (i) gevolgen vrij verkeer personen Bismarckiaanse verzekeringssystemen (ii) burgerschap gebaseerde Beveridge-systemen (iii) (iv) diensten volgt toepassing Deze anti-discriminatieregel (‘zonder bijdragen rechten’); woorden ‘wederkerigheid’ verzekeringsstelsels handhaven soepele toegangsregels verwerven toch omwille vind tegenstelling systematisch onweerstaanbaar liberalisering ongeremde evenwichtsherstellende bijdrage leveren) (13) ruimte initiatief corrigerend treden evenwicht vrijemarktprincipes soevereiniteit: vatbaarder deterministische dienstenrichtlijn: Europees Parlement voorgesteld Bolkestein bijgestuurd blijkt richtlijn gezondheidszorg; Raad bewaakten patiëntenrechten aansturing stelsels (14) juist toelaat toekennen integratie-eisen; problemen daarrond bestaan m i implementatie grondslagen (15) oneens intellectuele helden dergelijke asymmetrische constitutie zij géén socialemarkteconomie Charter Protocol Diensten Algemeen Belang elementen Rhodes Armstrong Lenaerts Daarmee opgelost Men overigens aanvoeren basisdynamiek (o vooral gericht eerder defensieve reactie gedwongen werd blijft niet-onbelangrijke speelde evaluatie Unierecht benadering concrete Cf zgn ‘zelfstandigen’ leven 205 zeggen relevant wisselwerking (waar hoger argument’ verwees) verminderde kritisch spanning én elke lidstaat; leiden generositeit Of effectief geregeld vervolgens implementeren daarnet aangaf ander voorbeeld werkland werknemers gedetacheerd gelden? En welke acties ondernemen wanneer menen regels geschonden kader detachering? Enkele beruchte arresten (Viking Laval) stelden actiemogelijkheden leken voorrang liberale mogelijk lijn ontwikkelt wetgevend wenselijk Mario Monti aangekaart rapport eengemaakte maart nam Commissie wetgeving terzake sturen creëren vakbondsactie Bruun Bücker voorstel bevredigend ver Zij eigenlijk vrijheden minstens gelijke status (overtuigende) illustreert woord bijsturing 3 3: Muntunie Hoger wees uitdrukkelijk uitging orde oog toekomstige sociaaleconomische wijzigingen veronderstelling radicaal onderuit gehaald althans Eurozone daarvan Ben Chu editorialist The Independent mei samen: ‘Europe has to become a ‘country’ new beast if the euro survive’ verwees essentiële tekorten constructie muntunie: afwezigheid ondersteunende centrale bank; garantie bankdeposito’s; regering begroting automatische buffer crises; ‘nationale’ besluitvorming land waarmee gemaakt is: 206 zwart-wit termen gesteld uitweg land’ Overigens ‘land’ afzienbare toekomst: conclusie verbinden gedoemd mislukken Anderzijds stabiliseren ‘verzekeringstechnisch’ d w z interstatelijke verzekering schokken centraal thema theorie optimale muntzones schema (16) voordelen instantie verminderen transactiekosten kosten deviezenruil vallen wisselkoersonzekerheid af) grotere vergelijkbaarheid prijzen zowel ondernemingen consumenten nuttig Wanneer bijdraagt welvaart vergroot boven voorgaande effecten gunstige deelneemt nadeel beleidsinstrument verliest nl mogelijkheid passen; getroffen ‘asymmetrische schok’ Opdat munt- 207 Je ontwikkel verbreden bredere premisse collectieve goederen creëert waardevol risico’s integratieproject specifieke soort integratieproject: wezen faire integratierisico’s gedachte Andrea uitkomt ‘reciprocity-based internationalism’ aantrekkelijke solidariteitsconcept verankerd vanzelfsprekend loutere upscaling bestaande solidariteitsconcepten meet invulling panEuropees anders gebruikt concept ‘risico’ reeks beperkingen geconfronteerd allemaal thuishoren notie ‘risico’; daarop ‘verzekeringsparadigma’ doet Meer gronde opvatting (problemen in) functioneren missie EU: beperkt priori visie rechtvaardigheid? klemtoon ‘reciprocity’ (wederkerigheid) stel (ik verzekeringsparadigma tekortschiet) argumentatie functionalistische afleiding (cf 4 infra) Daardoor verschillend ontbreekt verschil werken unie nadelen deelnemende bijgevolg gekenmerkt combinatie symmetrie flexibiliteit Symmetrie _ groei loon- prijspeil correleren gelijklopend Flexibiliteit slaat interne aanpassingsvermogen schok voordoet: doordat flexibel arbeidsmobiliteit intern beschikken uiteindelijk nettovoordeel opleveren meten graad verticale tradeoff dalende groep baten kosten: ‘optimale muntzone’ Amerika verbonden net comfortabele 208 TRADE-OFFS MUNTUNIE trade-off: vangen budgettaire transfers vermindert schuift OMZ-lijn OMZ’ (volgens twee pijlen) veronderstelt permanente inkomensherverdeling plaatsvindt uitmaken muntzone; ‘stabilisatie’-maatregelen ‘herverdelen’ ‘stabiliseren’ uitgaan moral hazard opduikt Moral stroom middelen rijkere armere aanpassing structureel uitstellen ‘Stabilisatie’ tijdelijk cyclisch (Bij wijze theoretisch voorbeeld: cofinanciering werkloosheidsuitkeringen gedurende fase geactiveerd kortlopende bepaald uitstijgt voldoen prioriteit ‘stabilisatie’ herverdeling ) onveranderlijk Lidstaten preventieve bewaking opzetten inzet sixpack 2010 stelde erin slaagt stemmen zwarte pijl) Hier bijkomende asymmetrie voorkomt stabiliserende onderlijnt goed houdbaarheid zwartwit keuze transferunie; confronteert trade-offs keuzemogelijkheden beperken Noch maatschappelijk neutrale keuzes behelst aanpassingsprocessen meestal moeilijk pijnlijk ervaren rechtstreeks (eerder omweg muntdepreciatie hogere inflatie) gemakkelijk migreren Vaak verband gebracht ontslagprocedures e voorstander niet-al-te-rigide arbeidsmarkten oor luisteren leggen Britse econoom Richard Layard stichter Centre for Economic Performance theoreticus activeringsbeleid ongelukkig maken: zozeer loonflexibiliteit 209 arbeidsmarkt onzeker (17) vele betekenissen zeker neutraal Budgettaire tijdelijke stabilisatie praktijk functie overheidsuitgaven los koppelen herverdelingsfuncties (18) Is nastreven slotte kleurloze optie? essentie na streven overheidsrekeningen arbeidsproductiviteit: parameters lopen moeilijke ervoor pensioenleeftijd zekere evolutie levensverwachting evenwichtig besef naïef veroudering mensen) erover waken ‘symmetrie’ levensverwachting? A genereuzer onvermijdelijk eindigt overheidsschuld loonkost product zulk blijven) bewuste afruil organiseren (meer) pensioengenerositeit (minder) nettolonen arbeidsproductiviteit ondanks vroeger pensioen batterij 210 terug welfare-to-work aanzette goede midden kiezen harde ogen ‘lankmoedige Frans-Duitse manier’ roep vindt verstandig onzekerheid ‘In plaats daarvan’ schrijft ‘zouden zekerheid alsook flexibele [waarmee doelt decentralisering loonoverleg willen inruilen loonstijging werkzekerheid] (Layard 2005) Bargain biedt interessante illustratie georganiseerd ‘Europeanisering’ belastingstelsel groepen ‘winnaars’ ‘verliezers’ gevolgd noodzaakt niet) transferschema ontwerpen complexe discussies ‘wint’ ‘verliest’ 211 (19) eenvoudig strikt genomen afstemming Stel B stijgen (rekening houdende B) pensioenbijdrage geheven brutolonen bruto-loonkost kent budgettair beide alternatief probleemloos scenario tevreden denkbaar overheid bespaart pensioenstelsel bijkomend subsidieert té arbeidsaanbod kleiner lonen: resultaat (en/of vakbonden) krappere eventuele via immigratie alternatieve aanvaarden pensioenen samendrukbaar type hoort thuis sfeer economie: bereid trekken pensioenleeftijd: ‘de tering nering gezet’ Uiteindelijk asymmetrisch pensioenbeleid cohesie aantast vanzelfsprekend: variabelen mee opgaat geldt onevenwicht scholing tekort geschoolden overschot ongeschoolden verwachten zullen (ervan uitgaande arbeidsmigratie oplost); onvoldoende gecompenseerd uitgaven tewerkstellingsprogramma’s laaggeschoolden) ofwel accepteren lagere algemene woorden: (relatieve) scholingstekort ‘betalen’ Dus ‘politieke economie’-argumenten horen gedrag werkgevers Wat economie’ betreft ‘onbetaalde rekening’ zetten’; daardoor overheidstekort universele geldingskracht hanteert gelden (maar daarover hier) geschoolde overheidsschuld: overaanbod ongeschoolde reacties verhogen… dimensies 212 (die rekenen immigratie) mogelijks dan: fundamenteel verschillen? antwoord ‘als’ zinnen gewichtige ‘bewijzen’ strategieën minimale plausibel supranationaal krijgt netjes afgescheiden arena’s lang betoogt Daarom neutraal: richting Bovendien evenzeer eventueel Vooraleer keer Bij voegen aandacht: gezamenlijk banksector beklemtoond: ‘collectieve wantrouwen aanzien schuldtitels ‘slecht evenwicht’ terechtkomen kortetermijnliquiditeitsproblemen omslaan solvabiliteitsproblemen uitgifte euro-obligaties Net transfermogelijkheden bezwaar rentepeil ‘lakse landen’ gehouden verhoging ‘gedisciplineerde lakse geremd schulden mutualisering schuld vatten bezwaren dele ondervangen rentevoeten toegepast (20) ‘zwart-wit’ karakter: overtuigingskracht gezamenlijke actie (inzake banken schuld) kritische drempel overschrijden Omdat lezing bekijken kortetermijnkwesties vergeten Moesen (De 2009) voorstellen zin gedeelte van) overheidsschulden overeenkomt gevangenen gevangenendilemma raken betrokkenen Pareto-verbetering realiseren: welbegrepen eigenbelang 213 (21) Fuest Peichl overzicht begrotingsunie aannemen Tot analytische houdbaarheidsvoorwaarden heeft? precieze conclusies ontwikkelen aangeven eens dwingt ‘basisconsensus’ cognitieve vat stabiliseer ze? presenteerde economen Robert Mundell vader muntzone bijgedragen 1973 formuleren oorspronkelijke 1961 grafiek aanleunt (Mundell 1973) Monetaristen kijken keynesianen leunde lanceren monetaristische overheidsoptreden ‘Mundell I’ Veel gelooft markten zichzelf convergentie? scholing? meningen alles volledig overeenkomen knopen hakken coherent moét eensgezindheid twijfel rechte eind Veronderstel iemand mengt stelling: ‘Ik twijfels sommige band ondersteunen geloof stelsel wetenschappers doorlichten; wetenschappelijke instelling Zou oogpunt legitimiteit (pensioenleeftijd) (minimumlonen) ter harte nemen onderzoeken realistisch zijn? waartoe dubbel: 214 Welke ‘flexibiliteit’ transfers? ‘prijs’ betalen ontwikkelingen? Over dan? ‘transfers’ instrument wetenschap altijd herverdelend effect hebben? benchmarks afgesproken waarrond lading Inzake vitaliteit 2012) verleden beklemtoond verscheiden kennen Nochtans gedeelde geladen Vervolgens complex omgaan technisch Jean legt Zuid-Europese economieën eenzijdig proces behandelen Vermits gemeenschappelijk succesvol aanpassingsproces iets inflatie Spanje (mits prijsstabiliteit gegarandeerd mits gebruik structurele hervormingen voeren) Dezelfde vlak Noord-Europese ‘overkill’ vermijden) loonstijgingen aanzienlijk uitstijgen eurodecennium) ‘Wederkerigheid’ deelt duidelijke wederzijdse inspanning Wederkerigheid last herstel competitiviteit partner intermenselijke verhoudingen bindmiddel samenleving contrasteerde homo reciprocans ooit economicus: ziet graag ‘iets terug’ ‘zijn geld’ 215 (22) waarop Bowles uitwerkt welvaartsstaat gegrondvest extrapoleerbaar voorligt beroep ‘verstandig eigenbelang’ ‘sterke wederkerigheid’ uiting afwijkend gesanctioneerd sanctie nettokost diegene afdwingt ‘principiële moraal’ handhaving normen consequenties; cf infra (23) Naast ethisch-filosofische ‘verantwoordelijkheid’ geconcipieerd entiteiten): burgers dragen beslissingen worden? draagwijdte ‘reciprociteit’ entiteiten vooronderstelt inspanning) kruideniersschaal vatbaar mededogen kwetsbaar kwetsbaarheid wijten nettogever armoede daadwerkelijk aangepakt (‘er bodemloze emmers gevuld’) diegenen inspanningen cement 2010) Samuel definieert bereidheid delen ingesteldheid levert individueel ‘verlichte ‘voorwaardelijk’ betekenisvol begrip onlangs mooi samengevat Editorial Constitutional Law Review WTE DN meerdere kwesties ‘individuele’ voordoet? Hoe toegewezen is? Waar stopt ondersteuning’ collectief georganiseerde mechanismen (bijvoorbeeld transfers)? Hanteren principiële moraal (waarbij zondaars’ bestraft zondaars zijn) consequentalistische streng bestraffen heiligen brengt?) Kunnen niet-verbreekbaar engagement aangaan bestendigend mechanisme wordt? noodzakelijk vormen; gelaagde duurzame (24) fragiliteit wijst ‘diepe variabele’ ‘a sense common purpose’ toen geforceerd herenigde Duitsland: ‘(T)his purpose deep variable that made monetary and political union possible Germany Put differently were endogenous variables driven by force existence this it inconceivable would have started with without having centralized budget capable making large between regions or unified security system This weakly developed at level’ p 113) Alleszins ‘sense Toen Belgisch Minister Zaken Uyl-lezing 1999 lans brak ‘Open Methode Coördinatie’ inhoud daarna beklemtonen: coördinatie 2002a 2002b) luxediscussie licht 4: ‘Europa’ achterwege start opnieuw wit blad revue passeerden niet-sociaal functioneel afgeleid: bescherming verlies welslagen muntunie… Jürgen verdediging way life’ globalisering waarvoor mobilisatie Lionel Jospin hem geïnspireerd had) levenswijze culturele insluiting interpretatie diep ingrijpt blijvend gelegitimeerd vertrekpunt vrede verankeren schiet onderneming strookt niet-economische hefbomen invloeden 216 217 (25) simuleren EAPN dergelijk verwijzen aankaartte: kwaliteit bijstandsstelsels bijstandstoerisme beste harmonisering absoluut ‘concurrentie’ verdwijnt perfect gerealiseerd correct afbakening begint opmerking aansluitend supra invullen gradaties kosmopolitisme staat: samenlevingsmodel ‘European onderscheidt stricto sensu verdrukking gelezen perspectief taken overneemt armoedebestrijding) respect subsidiariteit kernidee coördinatiemethode’ gelanceerd Top Lissabon 2000 10 onafgebroken kritiek geklonken methode zwak soft harder worden: betekenen project? Natascha scherp simuleren: verplichten bijstandsstelsel mediaaninkomen elimineren verplichting invoeren doorgedreven rechten’ (zoals inkomensbescherming fatsoenlijk niveau) lidstaten? vereiste ‘herverdelingsinspanning’ doelstelling hic nunc realiseren (wat eis is) uiteenlopen: percentage niet-arme 218 herverdelingsinspanning 5% Tsjechië Frankrijk Hongarije 7% Litouwen Roemenië grootste OostEuropese Daar alhoewel ‘arm’ inkomensarmoede leveren Echter Vergelijk qua vergelijkbaar Zoals Spaanse inefficiënt inleiding aansneed uitdrukkelijke Moet rechtvaardiger inkomensverdelinBELGISCH BBP PER CAPITA HERVERDELINGSINSPANNING DIE VEREIST OM ARMOEDE TE ELIMINEREN Laag bbp/capita Hoog 219 gen herverdelen (‘rijke’ ‘arme’) verbetert Belgen? duale beoordelingsperspectief herleiden enkel uitgangspunten omvang solidariteitskring ‘wij’ eenvoudige trade-off ene algoritme armoede-indicatoren indicator resultaten beoordelen armoedeindicatoren; expliciet roeping ‘nationale cohesie’ dienen toetsen niet-reduceerbare Historisch vaandel gedragen: panEuropese cohesiebeleid Debatten situeerden terrein: bewaken verbeteren samenhang reduceren (zie Fahey 2007) uitgeput externe ondersteuning? externaliseren beleidsfalen hoofde inefficiënte aanstipte? past life’? Samen mede-auteurs simulaties radicale anti-armoedenorm vertaalt bindende wederkerigheid: helpen zélf verantwoordelijk daadkracht efficiëntie armoedebestrijding Vooruitgang boeken vruchtbare spiraal gang brengen toenemen Dàt allereerste opdracht 220 CONCLUSIE: VAN DEFINIEREN besprak zwaarste wegen introduceren ‘moralistisch’ behulpzaam pakken focussen Ze hoge democratieën hamvraag opgevat uitvoerbaar stabiel vereisten houdbare wijzen richting: sterkere luxe-oefening Nog afstemmen recept groeiend sturingsvermogen Afstemming eenheidsworst strijdig gezondheidzorg) gevrijwaard democratisch aansturen EU-lidstaten eurozone behoren Toch legitiem sociaaleconomisch bestuur urgenter WAT MOET OP AGENDA EUROPA? toenemen? ‘pact’ haar langetermijndoel vast geest Sociaal Investeringspact betogen Anton Hemerijck Bruno Palier investeringsgedachte nieuw decennium tafel lagen menselijk kapitaal 221 (26) uniek uniforme toegepast; investeringsstrategie pakket som gebrek consistentie gezinnen individuen actueel actueler gezien demografische Zulk hervormingsgerichte dynamische publieke sector; draait zes assen 2011): hoogwaardige kinderopvang; investeren opleiding onderwijs onderwijs; verderzetten betaald gezinsverantwoordelijkheid combineren; levensverwachting; migratie succes arbeidsmarkt; emanciperende aanknoopt correcte balans opmaken opgeleverd evalueren gepresteerd perceptie Tijdens luik Lissabon-strategie besteed Vleminckx 2011; 2012a 2012b Corluy genuanceerd gediversifieerd pijnlijke overduidelijk: robuust wankel financieel Zeer geboekt werkgelegenheid klap weggeveegd financieel-economische intussen gemeengoed beseft verkeerde oriëntaties leidden kapitaal: massa werkloze bouwvakkers? tijdens alléén stuurde begrotingsbeleid halfslachtig zag opleidings(non)beleid zonden Israël overladen: werden onvergeeflijke fouten monetaire ECB 222 investeringsparadigma? paradigma mikken verstandige beschermen (Cantillon bestek proberen illustreren ‘investeren’ ‘beschermen’ INVESTERINGSAGENDA: DRAMATISCHE ONEVENWICHTEN SCHOLING breng reeksen cijfers verband: werkzaamheidsgraad jonge leeftijdscategorie 24 29 jaar) jongeren 15 PISA-toetsen afgenomen wiskundige vaardigheid leesvaardigheid WERKZAAMHEID 24-29-JARIGEN PISA-RESULTATEN 223 suggereren direct causaal ‘verklaard’ onderwijsresultaten (27) treffend Griekenland Italië combineren lage PISA-testen Terugkomend stelde: langetermijnprobleem bestrijd scholingsonevenwicht Los buitengewoon bieden Italianen Spanjaarden Grieken erkent ook: 2020 terugdringen vroegtijdige schoolverlaters landen) headline targets onderwijsagenda weegt doordringt hoogste besluitvorming: helaas negatief zeggen: ‘Dit onderwijsprobleem aangesproken onderwijsuitdaging plaatsen slagen bezuinigingsagenda BESCHERMINGSAGENDA: GROTE VERSCHILLEN EFFICIENTIE 5a 5b presteren totale weergegeven naast uitkeringen ouderenzorg tegemoetkomingen huisvestingskosten diverse voorzieningen voorschoolse buitenschoolse kinderopvang (0-12 arbeidsmarktbeleid begrepen weer bevolkingsaandeel nettohuishoudinkomen mediaan; omschreven ‘met risico armoede’ Laekenindicatoren 2001 Lissabonproces (Atkinson 2002) bewezen gegevens generaties (generatie werkzaamheid meten) (generaties onderwijsprestaties overlappen omschrijven ‘relatieve armoedevermindering transfers’: ‘armoede transfers’ gedeeld ‘Armoede armoederisico (waaronder pensioenen) meerekent feitelijk observeert ‘armoedevermindering’ voorzichtig indicatoren ‘armoedevermindering houdt wijzigt (zonder verplicht doorwerken) (28) oordeel vellen armoederisico’s toetsstenen vergelijken punten: ‘armoede/sociale uitgaven’ armoedevermindering/sociale armoedecijfers (‘armoede transfers’) voorbijgaan uitgavenbeleid primaire opvangen corrigeren inactiviteitsvallen efficiënt veroorzaakt hanteren toets vergelijkt regressie regressielijnen (nationaal gemeten) 224 (te verschijnen) grondigere bespreking onderliggende data omgesprongen bestedingsdata belastingen uitgavenpeil Zweden Finland ingeschat ‘efficiëntie’ onderschat ‘inefficiënte’ landen; correctie trek ‘inefficiëntie’ wezenlijk veranderen Deken 225 regressielijn ‘inefficiënt’ uiteindelijke armoederesultaat (29) Letland uitgesproken Portugal Verenigd Koninkrijk beschouwd ‘minder efficiënt’ verantwoordelijk? beleidsverklaring besteden pensioenuitgaven nietpensioenuitgaven niet-gepensioneerden Griekse Portugese Italiaanse verbazing wekken inzicht oorzaken inefficiëntie kenmerk fragmentatie ondersteuningsbeleid (kinderbijslag kinderopvang) (30) Zowel wetenschappelijk onderzoek inzoomen terugkerende bevestigd algehele cruciaal armoederesultaten instrument: diepgaander indringender regressietechniek schattingen vuistregel hanteren: geschatte 5 ppt bovengrens betrouwbaarheidsinterval ondergrens inefficiënt: criterium versoepeld meegerekend zomaar gelijkgesteld ‘falend beleid’ uitgaven: factoren Daaruit besloten verklaard beperkte gezinsbeleid: gezinsbeleid presteert 226 5A: UITGAVEN 2007/8 Socialebeschermingssuitgaven % 2007 15:16 227 5B: RELATIEVE ARMOEDEVERMINDERING UITEENLOPENDE BELEIDSTRAJECTEN TIJDENS BOOMJAREN 2004/5-2007/8 geef afgelegd 2008 opvalt trajecten waren 6: 2004/5 228 Lissabon-top ambitieuze verklaringen bestrijding geformuleerd meetlat telt Europeanen mediane traject sinds bevredigend: daalde significant (Decancq meetlatten bedoeld: Belgen Duitsers Belgische inkomen) afgelegde maat vermindering gemiddeld gesproken stilstand traditioneel Polen verminderde; Ierland); steeg (met afhankelijk Duitsland) ‘pan-Europese wereld Vanuit dispariteit inegalitair groeimodel voorbeelden Vincent 229 2004-5 2007-8 kaart Beer decompositie armoede-evoluties ‘werk-rijke’ ‘werk-arme gezinnen’ polarisatie jobs huishoudens merkelijk Ter aandeel volwassenen ‘werkloze huishoudens’ ppt; bedroeg daling quasi-identieke huishoudwerkloosheid verwacht (Corluy tabel gevolg verlaat moderniseringsproces ‘verantwoordelijk’ ‘HOE’ ENKELE UITGANGSPUNTEN investeringsparadigma langetermijnagenda kortetermijnproblematiek economisch-financiële Zonder aandachtspunten Twee lijken essentieel: langetermijndoelstellingen borgen ondermijnen Niet kwantiteit zware kampen Lissabon-agenda) schuldvermindering ondersteuning evenwichtige macro-economische bankencrisis mobiliseren fondsen doorvoeren daartoe status-quo integendeel hervormingsbeleid investeringsdeal behoort reële 230 coördinatie’ volhouden geleidelijk (31) processen nadruk liggen ‘accountability’ socialebeschermingssystemen effectieve efficiënte bouwen solidariteitsinstrument uitstek Fondsen: conditionaliteit ngo’s (32) houvast programma doelen sporen investeringsbeleid: 20/20/20-doelstellingen waarmaken energie tertiair 20 miljoen armen zaken Annual Growth Survey (European Commission aanmoedigend plannen ingediend 2020-doelstellingen bereikt optelsom aangaande 12 gevraagde contradictie vaststellen 2020-doelen krachtig objectieven EPILOOG CATCH SOCIAALDEMOCRATEN? Politiek technocratie wervend terugvinden betoog? breder doel luxe-discussie beklemtoonde nuchtere dagelijks gedragen publiek Vanzelfsprekend zaak bestuursmethode gepubliceerd Heidenreich Zeitlin Marlier Public Policy Management Institute Sabel situering ‘experimental governance’ ingaan arbeidsrecht Vlaamse collega Tilburg wijdde (Hendrickx 231 zijn; meerderheidsstroming oratie wilde schieten sociaaldemocratisch smal kans Sociaaldemocraten twijfelen vervallen inderdaad meesterschap lot slaan diepere wegzinkt existentieel Wie beetje versleten gezicht 22-gehalte: bewegingen ideologisch strijd hoop hoeven schrik Natuurlijk punten hart vergt volgehouden investering ‘fairness’ zegde regelgeving fatsoenlijke aandachtspunt beseffende architecturale verscheidenheid (Rycx Kampelmann Marx normering marges investeringsagenda sociaaldemocraten? kocht boek stond: ‘Het onverminderd taak democratische socialisten toekomst onverschillig keus instemming macht Dan uitzicht Inzicht vanaf tenslotte inhoudelijke besteden: inhoudelijk reine varianten houd idolatrie naïeve 232 investeren’ win-win oplevert) ongefundeerd revisionisme activeringsagenda fout was) mobiliserende kracht vernieuwde sector afvragen vakbewegingen werkgeversorganisaties hanteerbaar vertaalbaar ________________ VERWIJZINGEN K Governing Social Inclusion Europeanization through Coordination Oxford University Press Atkinson T E Nolan Indicators 2002 O Dolls M C Neumann D Pestel N Siegloch S Fiscal Union Europe? Redistributive Stabilising Effects an Tax-Benefit System verschijnen collaboration Fong Gintis H Jayadev Pagano U Essays on New Economics Inequality Redistribution Cambridge Measurement Income Distribution Supranational Entities: Case Jenkins Micklewright J (eds Poverty Re-Examined pp 62-83 Critical assessment proposed II regulation more courage strength needed remedy imbalances ETUI Brief N° 4/2012 R V Are Mobility Trends United States Union’s Future? Alber Gilbert Diversity? Comparing Models Europe America 280-307 paradox Investment State: Employment Lisbon Era Journal 21 432-449 F For Better Worse Richer Poorer market participation redistribution income poverty Individual Household Risk Decomposition Analysis CSB ‘beleid & onderzoek’ 1-80 Antwerpen Centrum Beleid Herman Deleeck P Why work not panacea: decomposition analysis EU-15 countries 17 375-388 Decancq den Bosch Vanhille evolution 233 234 Union: concepts measurement Measuring investment state Managing Fragile CESifo Forum 40-45 Monetary W Gains All: Proposal Common Euro Bond Intereconomics May/June Opstellen Uitgeverij Bert Bakker 1978 gezondheidszorg: Patiëntenrichtlijn Tijdschrift Recht september Annex Progress Report Strategy COM(2011) 815 final 2/5 1-27 EU-Wide Measure Sociological 23 35-47 Boundaries Welfare: Integration spatial politics protection 2005 What it? Does work? And are there really ‘no alternatives’? 13 3-9 Gill I Golden growth Restoring lustre Model Washington World Bank needs constitution Left 11 5-26 Changing Welfare Regimes influence method coordination national reforms York Routledge 235 When Eurocrisis Meet Sociologica 1/2012 doi: 2383/36887 (with comments Ascoli Barbier Beckfield Bonoli Palme) Hendrickx Frank International Organization Aspects Co-operation Group Experts (summary) 74 99-123 Waarom gelukkig? Atlas Perelman Pestieau La performance l’Etat providence européen Quel enseignement pour la Belgique ? regards Economiques december 93: 1-13 Judges Markets? Wallace Pollack Young Policy-Making 253-282 Burgerschap solidariteit: kanttekening rechtspraak Rechtskundig Weekblad 75 1013-1019 Citizenship National Systems Solidarity Jurisprudencija 18 397-421 Natali Dam Towards More EU? Brussel Peter Lang Marchal Mind Gap: Incomes Minimum Wage Workers US IZA Discussion Paper No 6510 1-25 Bonn Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Haves Have-Nots Idiosyncratic History Global Basic Books theory Optimal Currency Areas American 51 657-665 Uncommon Arguments Currencies Johnson Swoboda 114-132 Londen Allen Unwin 236 Choice Sustainable Post-Crisis Bajnai G Fischer Hare Hoffmann Rossi Watt Solidarity: Sale? Dimension Governance 23-44 Dialogue Series 2012/1 1-154 Güterloh Bertelsmann Stiftung euro-area rebalancing challenge Bruegel blog (22 May Evaluation effectiveness OMC since 2006 (deliverable 7) Recommendations improving strengthening 8) 1-164 Between Efficacy Experimentation 283-306 Rycx Who earns minimum wages evidence based household surveys 124 1-65 Trade Problems Prospects Dickson Eleftheriadis Philosophical Foundations Asymmetry cannot be economy KFG Working 1-35 Berlijn KollegForschergruppe ‘The Transformative Power Europe’ spending should remain Geluk Politiek: Pleidooi Helder Denken Itinera Protection: Clarifying Conundrum 1-49 pact OSE Opinion Disappointing trends: blame? 450-471 237 Wederkerigheid: Janssens Naar contract 19-76 Bezige Strategische 1-34 Actieve Welvaartsstaat: Perspectief Uyllezing (Amsterdam 1999) Stichting ‘Dr Uyl-lezing’ (ed Uyl-lezingen 1988-2008 eerlijke verdeling? Donk Rinnooy Kan Lieshout Verzorgingsstaat 19-70 Haag WRR Wetenschappelijke Regeringsbeleid protection: what Convention propose? MPIfG working paper 02/6 1-29 Keulen Max Planck Study Societies 2002c Justice Europe: reflections Drèze’s Tinbergen lecture Economist 150 83-93 2002b Foreword Esping-Andersen Gallie Myles need State viii-xxiv Anti-Poverty Network Document Framework Directive Ph Just democracy Rawls-Machiavelli programme Colchester ECPR Three Letters Peoples Revue Philosophie Economique 7-20 2003 Rethinking from fact 169-172 Ch Experimentalist Architecture INHOUDSTAFEL 238

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Page 2 of 73 EUROFORUM Within the ‘Euroforum’ framework KU Leuven academics present policy papers on Europe 2020 targets (employment social inclusion climate education and innovation) Eurozone’s design problems in interaction with policymakers from European Commission international experts Policy by Euroforum Leuven: 1 Paul De Grauwe ‘Design Failures Eurozone: Can They Be Fixed?’ (April 2013) Maarten Goos Anna Salomons & Marieke Vandeweyer ‘Job Polarization During Great Recession Beyond’ 3 Frank Vandenbroucke Ron Diris Gerlinde Verbist ‘Excessive Social Imbalances Performance Welfare States EU’ 4 Erik Schokkaert Koen Decancq ‘Beyond GDP: Measuring Progress Europe’ 5 Schoukens ‘From Soft Monitoring to Enforceable Action: A Quest for New Legal Approaches EU Fight against Exclusion’ is part interdisciplinary think-tank Metaforum which aims strengthen Leuven’s involvement debate supporting multidisciplinary working groups researchers different disciplines combine their scientific expertise discuss relevant issues angles Interdisciplinary Hollands College Damiaanplein 9 bus 5009 3000 metaforum@rec kuleuven be www be/metaforum be/euroforum ABSTRACT Our paper4 starts premise that disparity lack convergence levels child poverty Eurozone signals ‘excessive imbalances’ should a common concern Increasing diverging rates warrant first because they contradict expectation deepening integration leads growing cohesion at national panEuropean level second signal investment deficits may cause effect vicious circle underperforming labour markets systems The empirical paper develop an ‘efficiency scoreboard’ member states’ performance based observable regard ‘efficiency-benchmarks’ take into account spending (distinguishing pension other spending) household employment ‘pro-poorness’ With we distinguish measure ‘work poverty’ (which correlates i e care active market policies) ‘relative severity work reflects polarization unequal distribution jobs over households) pro-poorness upshot our research it confirms recent publications question so-called Korpi-Palme ‘paradox redistribution’ without however showing propoorness transfers (other than pensions) adds efficiency Although impact these indicators statistically significant still leave substantial unexplained disparities welfare states On structural differences underlying societal fabric correlate architecture GDP per capita but are not readily ‘explained’ factors strongly each other) result shows analyzing incremental changes policies must conflated across We thank Tim Goedemé Aaron Vanden Heede Vincent Corluy preparation data discussion basis SILC Pierre Pestieau Olaf van Vliet Rudi Van Dam Jonathan Zeitlin Maurizio Ferrera Johan Deken Bea Cantillon Karel den Bosch Anton Hemerijck Olivier Bontout Georg Fischer participants informal seminars CSB critical comments CONTENTS Abstract Introduction Excessive imbalances 8 divergence threatens legitimacy B needs basic consensus 11 C one apply notion states? 15 D Preliminary conclusions 19 Mapping 20 relevance intensity patterns 21 Household at-risk-of-poverty rates: decomposing diversity 23 24 employment: regression analysis 27 E explanatory power human capital demographic dependency 32 F An 35 G Caveats 39 General 41 References 45 6 Appendix 1: according vs ESSPROS 48 7 2: Model selection sensitivity 3: Summary statistics 51 Figures tables 52 INTRODUCTION Union (EU) has adopted surveillance mechanism prevent correct macroeconomic within ‘Macro-economic Imbalance Procedure’ (MIP) It relies alert system uses scoreboard in-depth country studies strict rules form enforcement financial sanctions euro area do follow up recommendations approach encompasses ‘early warning’ ‘preventive corrective action’ In section this argue analytically imbalance’ also applies specific parameters characterizing members This say identical concept would domain or MIP-type procedures developed (in fact whether MIP provides toolbox economic itself debatable requires separate discussion) However expression adequately describes set affect very differently (thus creating ‘imbalances’) matter all Youth unemployment two examples where These simply ‘similar problems’ subset poorly performing states: partly attributable shared causes pan-European level; create problem ‘spill-overs’ single countries thus generating consequences illustrate argument case But reasoning can extended youth even more straightforward successful reduction such excessive involves both responsibility collective action legitimate consider individual as responsible improvement outcomes enhancing Simultaneously provide supportive enables improve Balancing support implies sense ‘reciprocity’ presupposes understanding contributing state Not surprisingly emerge key refine early warning system: established consisting ten covering major sources For indicator thresholds have been detect potential applied mechanically complemented reading composition evolve time aim trigger order determine identified early-warning benign problematic organize missions ECB if appropriate reviews shall made public Preventive action: allows Council adopt preventive under article 121 Treaty stage before become large There arm serious cases imbalance procedure (EIP) opened Member State concerned will submit plan clear roadmap deadlines implementing Surveillance stepped regular progress reports submitted distinguishing role excluding pensions hand hand; although ‘income smoothing’ life cycle de facto non-negligible number Secondly degree (i share individuals living households relatively weak participation market) ‘severity’ poverty; measures ‘polarization’ reveal strikingly disparate pattern Analyzing contribute needed balance start hypothesis conceptually meaningful ‘performance’ (social outcomes) ‘efficiency’ loosely define ‘performance unit input’) substantiate conceptual distinction robust results Nevertheless believe type helpful inspire ‘contractual approach’ governance proposed President Herman Rompuy necessary inform contractual operational fair ventures debates engage academic scholars about ‘targeting’ benefits versus universalism strengths weaknesses ‘social investment’ Targeted directed (sometimes disproportionately sometimes exclusively) people low incomes whereas universal provided most citizens Prima facie targeted programmes efficient achieving redistribution since yields greater seminal Korpi Palme (1998) tabled evidence reflecting realities mid 1980’s show prima deceptive: ‘The target poor only equality via equal less likely reduce inequality’ (p 682) coined ‘the paradox explained following trade-off: low-income targeting weaker middle class smaller size redistributive budget cannot establish link between them (since no when controlled indicators; yet does play role) imply further questioning reversal paradox: today comparing 29 overall outcome (excluding positively ‘propoorness’ line pretend close One might object table cross-country comparisons given moments time; overlook trend decreasing associated positive correlations hold examined separately aggregating transfer fundamentally change correlation aggregate below combined phenomenon increased emphasis shrinking budgets Moreover observe ex post necessarily linked ante practices means-testing lead nuanced merits drawbacks lend pragmatic Commission’s Communication Investment Package calls ‘improved targeting’ emphasizes ‘both selectivity need used intelligent way ’ (European 2013b p 9) paradigm’ now promoted 2013b) (see Palier pact 2011) scholarly – advocates (2013) Morel (2012) approaches (2011) confronted difficulties difficulty follows intrinsic limitations nature involved assessing clearly confirm negative (defined simple suggest plays important mediated employment; yield decisive ‘proof’ reasons Section counterargument learns attempts quantitative deliver hard proofs; addition fine-grained qualitative intertemporal Much confusion caused unwarranted conflation perspectives By example perhaps ought explain how contemporary Sweden continue rank quite well terms perspective followed rather inegalitarian course half past decade Factors accounting Scandinavian ‘superiority’ (relative Europe) preventing some shifting outstanding (more so states) changing models remedy weakness require deeper analysis; hope introduced least building blocks useful why point particular underscoring difference (the poverty) ‘models’ see Kvist Greve who ‘classical typologies revision’ ‘profound [in Danish state] taken place core characteristics new structures understandings developing econometric examination (changes in) (linked paradigm) Wang EXCESSIVE SOCIAL IMBALANCES IN THE EUROZONE DIVERGENCE THREATENS LEGITIMACY OF focus Table presents figures at-risk-ofpoverty age 18 available 2005 2011 Statistics Income Living Conditions (EU SILC) years ‘2005’ ‘2011’ etc refer survey years; except United Kingdom Ireland reflect year Hence essentially relating 2004 2010 Throughout use ‘child shortcut crucial parameter assessment ‘poverty’ defined caution Being risk means equivalized8 net disposable income 60 cent median equivalized sharing resources rate here crude headcount: threshold depth faced headcount defines relation happens living: relative If floating columns (1-4) every decreased during crisis decrease incomes: favourable many families non-poor alike Columns (5-6) anchoring its value picture Finland Slovenia Slovakia Latvia instance calculation (compare 7-8) words inequality was rising 2000s; children same period substantially Italy Greece contrast increase larger fixed compared threshold; Spain similar counts [Table here] ranked Membership (as 2012) indicated grey shade huge ranges 10% 3% Poland Romania higher did include Romania) much ranging 2% Lisbon era discussed (forthcoming) modified OECD scale gives adult 0 subsequent adults children; somebody younger 14 consideration display risks non-elderly population Column (4) ratio total ratios indicate country-specific Across states10 average11 123% small (Denmark Norway Germany Sweden) 105% Denmark outliers seem highly specialized another 135% (Spain diverse six explaining child-centred 2000s displayed tendency converge measured (to lesser extent) anchored 12 were initially high Lithuania Portugal UK Estonia declined traditionally there notable exceptions (low initial increase) (high increasing rates) 13 contrary dispersion calculated ‘convergence’ ‘divergence’ technical When comes neither nor se desirable obtains describing satisfactory affairs non-convergence (during time) (child) appears cause: hit 2008 Figure plots growth column averages registered 2005-2011 10 EU27 Iceland term ‘average’ invariably refers unweighted average unless otherwise Child estimates statistical confidence intervals around them; hence shown Since user base disposal moment writing annual report Protection Committee 2012 rule thumb (on threshold): considers [-1;+1] interval (Social 2013 35) beta-convergence: negatively compare standard deviation increases correlated (SILC 2009) [Figure obvious strong ‘fixed’ 16 development indicator: poorer increases; richer decreases long-term good hardship experienced short run illustrates driver notwithstanding differ: shock accompanied (anchored witness combination signalling macro-economic domestic differentiation ‘homework’ note percentage increases: points differ suffered decline unchanged (-0 points) To extent shocks far perfect recession Jenkins et al pp 38-40) apart factor heterogeneity developments incomes; latter captured covered variables: real mean As Bourguignon (2003) ‘growth spells’ 17 severely already had mid-2000s paragraph general confined largely Bourguignon’s reported request Common next consequences: generate ‘externalities’ main spill-over realm political project crucially objective successive waves enlargement promise vindicated Enlargements Community resulted upward convergence; World Bank dubbed EC veritable ‘convergence machine’ (Gill Raiser 2012); documented convincingly Lefebvre current phase casu creation currency stake Apart suffering those feature notably continues steadily undermine credibility perceived ‘losers’ process ‘winners’ Both ‘failing’ ‘successful’ opinion increasingly dissatisfied observation Reasoning ‘us’ ‘them’ South’ North’ inevitably gain while lose ‘us’-‘them’ divide particularly paralyzing North framed efficiency’: disappointing record seen socially inefficient economically uncompetitive make difficult steps consolidate longer sovereign debt stabilizing fiscal let alone fully-fledged union necessity union) know sustain entities mutual trust other’s internal fabric: Belgium north-south telling seems harder parties agree reason seriously try understand what indeed inefficiencies done erodes cooperation exists damages trust-based perform better future hypothetical subjective: prejudge certainty sufficiently plausible assign label observations summarized NEEDS BASIC CONSENSUS previous equally surging reason: creates objectively sustainability write ‘can’ depends analytical monetary unification demand ‘symmetry’ among economies participating wish propose minor detour beneficial adequate symmetry flexibility (De textbook theory optimal areas output Flexibility relates wage interregional mobility country’s ‘internal’ adjustment capacity event asymmetric Less necessitates flexibility: required adaptability Monetary (EMU) assessed balances export shares exchange costs government private housing prices properly attuned union; direction ensures related rarely explicitly answered functionally equivalent view symmetry) produce times generated arrangements: temporary shorter hours (such Germany) worker unregulated forth Financially sustainable older workers generous secure lower regional compatible supranational possibility ‘functionally equivalent’ legitimize principle subsidiarity limits accommodated (2012a) discusses policy: economy practice divergences retirement pose assertion true then whole gamut model pursue domestically ‘if’ preceding sentence ‘if’: proofs matters remains unproven tuning strategies certainly outlined supranationally shaped neatly separated arenas naïve position Leibfried long argued respect (Leibfried 2010) Let us return absence (upward) alarming ‘upstream’ (why comparatively X?) ‘downstream’ (what worsening Upstream functioning jobless turn cost competitiveness and/or Downstream makes success obtain cultural status school upstream underinvestment inadequate mobilization announces continuing synonymous deficit Today formal educational achievements OECD’s PISA programme get trapped (a ‘bad equilibrium’) persistent reinforces legitimacy-based formulated section: emergence participate fabrics obviously causal runs well-documented briefly explore relations Several especially detrimental long-run effects several (Cunha 2006; Cunha Heckman Schennach Early learning foundation throughout proper stimulation harmful Brooks-Gunn Duncan (1997) family children’s completed schooling largest 0-5 insignificant later students underrepresented college attendants weakly finances enrol readiness due (Cameron 1999) Families access schools opportunities offspring literature demonstrates bad health crime earnings Almlund Duckworth Kautz Borghans Ter Weel extensive overviews investments broad meaning field comprise assistance parents (and peers) non-monetary Bianchi Robinson Milkie (2006) collegeeducated mothers spend enrichment activities ) Still purely influence go beyond asymmetries cautious formulation argument: benefit fabric’ ‘economic symmetry’ neutral: envisaged choice benchmarks organising recommended subsidiarity’ elusive claims serves That broader demands sketched paragraphs types ‘internal flexibility’ purport survive meets requirements justice authors claim limited: dimension broad-based tie goals often stressed impossible accurately (e g Sapir 2006) Nonetheless reality minimal normatively charged objectives Subsequently complex reciprocity dealing At inter-human relationships cohesive agent (Bowles summarised Editorial Constitutional Law Review WTE DN evidently various intertwined What ‘individual’ evolution? end jointly organised mechanisms transfers)? Should adhere strictly principled morality (whereby ‘sinners’ face punishment sins merit) consequentialist moral (duly excessively sinners saints trouble)? presupposition themselves interest having well-performing EU’s actions undertaken enhance CAN ONE APPLY NOTION EFFICIENCY TO WELFARE STATES? security discussions Is opposed performance? definition achieves input’ influenced context operates; parcel friendly: former ‘efficient’ carries meanings revisit usage analyses arrangements well-known arguments other: trade-off ‘equality’ compellingly ‘leaky bucket’ metaphor Okun’s famous essay Equality Efficiency Big Trade-Off (Okun 1975) leaky bucket anticipated insights formalized taxation whereby fund schemes worst-off incentives overcoming imperfections information compulsory pooling insurance) incompleteness organizing Pareto-improvements classic Barr Economics (Barr insurance just examines kind Paretian efficiencyargument (or apply) intervention (because information) holds second-best world counterfactual Pareto-efficient ‘possibility frontier’ exist could first-best lump sum redistribute improved thanks interventions allowing Thus mainstream teaches nation conceived instruments implemented top Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013 finds archetypal Nordic continental Netherlands together liberal USA (World Economic Forum 13) mature simultaneously competitive prosperous inspired impressive body goes possible prosperity ‘feedback-effects’ society encouragement sound risk-taking well-designed : productive asset forceful restatement Hemerijck’s Changing (Hemerijck underscores ones assets states; he explains tradition automatic stabilizers institutions (notably progressive dampen maintain production frontier Obviously come function sustainably certain conditions avoiding Andersen Dolls (Dolls 2012; Basso Boeri (2009) underscore dualism importance “both stabilisers protection job loss operate efficiently market” ‘productive assets’ others equipped stabilization emerges: considered qua asset’ ‘automatic stabilizer’ sensu stricto Admittedly impressionistic Also causality wrong stabilizers’ beneficiary lato narrowed down ‘performs better’ ‘comparatively efficient’ benchmark preferences achieved ‘per spending’ constructing ‘best best ‘outputs’ policy) ‘input’ ‘euros spent’ ‘one government’ distance technique respects interesting global reject application aggregation First inputs outputs too Second disentangle ‘merit’ (attributed ‘circumstances’ control) accept sceptical think taking ‘poverty elderly’ carry normative benchmarking exercise accepted framework: EU-wide clarity ‘preferences’ persist; justifies specify ‘inputs’ controlling Such insight volume dissociated influencing sensible partition circumstances totally control governments attributed unambiguously therefore differentiated political) deliberation ‘circumstances control’ ‘policy merits’ whatever judgement ‘responsible’ achieve Pareto-efficiency said Pareto-inefficient Assessing interdependencies (child trade- Sapir’s equity (Sapir offs complementarities; Rather productivity conditional etcetera convenience ‘achieved outcomes’ called ‘post-transfer referred ‘reduction transfers’ Poverty post-transfer pretransfer Eurostat method calculate ‘pre-transfer proceeds follows: taxes excluded results; rates’ using ‘post-transfer’ read obtained adapted funding added Third manipulation behavioural induced abandoning concomitant reductions significance equilibrium created financing reference tax Because neglected interpret relationship appear performs ‘efficiently’ amount reduction’ reduction/spending’ inactivity traps pre-transfer comparative misleading remedying final differs Employment Development 2013a 219-226) ‘gross spent’; ‘gross’ analyse congenial employment) Before insist caveat: productivity) virtue Consider B; spends ranks prefer ‘Efficiency’ criterion choosing situation definitely spill-overs large) informs possibilities PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS Growing threaten (social) orientation (i) feedback (ii) prime (nor any activity) wellconceived examine give notions substance reproduce Doing Better (OECD Starting Strong slightly consists applying criteria assess Lancker feasible gathered Statistical System variables SILC-based incorporate assessments ‘comparative efficiency’ MAPPING PERFORMANCE AND EUROPEAN STATES illustrated interrelation ‘anchored time’ threshold: focuses distributive issue introduce map decompose ‘shift-share analysis’ rough indication variable From onwards time-pooled crosssection Sections A-C 2011; limit ourselves 2005-SILC 2010; retrieved dependent includes predominantly 22 explanations mapping association features Separating growth’ distribution’ unrelated below) Conversely formation Explicitly focussing including RELEVANCE HOUSEHOLD WORK INTENSITY PATTERNS EMPLOYMENT ‘household intensity’ months worked working-age students) persons part-time estimate full-time equivalents computed habitually interview work-intensity belong weighted five subsets 2008: distinguishes (work-intensity 85 100 cent) (between 55 medium workintensity (20 less) cent; (69 determinant shift attention state’s determined households? three employment’ 18) cent); ‘very poor’ less); work-poor ‘severe workpoor third subgroup households; call reader expressions values pre- post-crisis Among 20% 40% prevalence headcounts Labour Force Survey (LFS) Cross-country known 2013; surprise displaying 2000- immediate span suggesting really ‘stock’ efforts accumulated one-way causality: investing (ALMP) Additionally mainly Indeed exclude originates effectiveness expenditure disadvantaged Blau Currie rich overview subsidizing direct impacts range later-life Spending extremely tell Given static providing behind again tends Southern positions Northern existence ‘natural floor’ severe easily (all combined) expenditures day averaged 2000-2009 All expressed (n=29) diminish: fall inversely explanation (‘severe poverty’) varies great deal differences: ‘extended families’ ‘pooling’ nonemployment work-poverty non-employment everything: labelled (Gregg Scutella Wadsworth Using ‘jobless household’ ILO weeks survey) ‘polarization index’ actual structure assuming distributed randomly Traditionally EU15 Belgium; family’ index lived expect structure) 2005-2010 Contrary construction captures something else institutional socio-cultural determinants demonstrate AT-RISK-OF-POVERTY RATES: DECOMPOSING DIVERSITY subgroups accounted subgroups) identical) Decomposition basically device descriptions decomposition outbreak ‘work-rich’) segment work-rich shift-share presentation elements (For full 2012b) horizontal lines ‘work-poverty’ suggests conclusions: – Countries characterized infer ‘trade-off’ macro-level comparison: group Relatively considerable right side Eastern SPENDING administrative published classification gauge gross regime benefits; tend overestimate like France (Adema Chart I 11) Another allow 25 sets data: standardized25 standardized 60;26 60; cash old survivor 2007 restricted (including elderly) classified percentages explainable factors: contains numerator denominator whilst wages salaries) Hungary deviate sense) Next correspondence complicated profiles older: overestimates Bulgaria 60% standardization equivalence footnote 8) site rely 26 bracket [0-59] [0-64] fits evolutions (except Ireland) Developments pensions’ multigenerational 40 222) underestimates effort thoroughly ‘big spenders’ transfers; adding ‘spending nation’ becomes comparable sampling coherent 7) sizes Therefore choose employ aged 0-59 0-17 Sensitivity employing either instead 28 Aside ‘pro-poorness Matsaganis roughly concentration coefficient receive register Calculating coefficients indicates components irrespective Concentration Gini disproportionally pro-poorness: ‘strongly pro-poor’; zero ‘weakly pro-poor’ Weak going parts represent reverse scale: -1*concentration 30 units last Whiteford (2010) comparison found Marx ranking broadly pro-poorness; -1*Gini correspond age-specific 31 summary benefiting inverse coefficients) plus figure pro-poor towards 0- 59 High prevalent Anglo-Saxon simplicity (inverse of) Ginicoefficients population; (small) ‘prorich’ RATES ON EMPLOYMENT: REGRESSION ANALYSIS step pooled time-series cross independent description) SILC: Pro-poorness Analogous located entire population) executed specifications controls Results (they fit covers surveys panel-based linear GLS heteroskedastic error methodological presented dummies alternative ‘country effects’ not) drawback ‘underlying society’ country-level picked leading overestimation rates; upper bound absolute estimated Including advantage fabric) underestimation deep automatically along specification choices addresses estimation methods frames emphasize ‘explain’ summarizes four regressions atrisk-of-poverty fourth 2] regress 33 encompass Without sign negative) downward bias records Pension poor-performing distortions corrected extract effects; pick dimensions boom joint movement Changes partially compensate business observed add (partially) weight (slightly 34 (work work-poverty’) study concurs typically corresponding elaboration How model? contain Primarily dividing through logs levels; (with confirmed fitting above- below-average significantly baseline lies interpretation Naturally holding constant held More precisely divided original ‘smoothly’ [0-55] Again informative giving magnitudes occurs [20-55] margin model; consistent idea stress act 70 suggested Alternatively 158 148 respectively modest comparably variation transitions being moderately moderate at-risk 45-0 55) mentioned drives Interpreting reduces spent effective addressing 36 significant: magnitude wonder appendix conclude reducing (also poverty: 37 (0-55) looking naturally 38 Note (marginally) error) look prominent expense pay) Evolutions evolution (Corluy surprising directly 1-1 opposite insignificance Transfers (higher) non-linearity incentivized self-providing actually person bigger moves away self-dependent Effects reflected preand factored out subtract robustness apparent address (appendix elaborates this) invariant (groups technology periods EXPLANATORY POWER HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY help earlier 2009 ALMP test indicators: attainment educated individuals) achievement deviations PISA-test score topics countries) country-average topics) PPP) young common: (although practice) questions itself; review additional dynamic achievement) panel unfeasible (results shade) distinguished none sensitive somewhat stronger endogenous effects) (not shown) (correlational) findings suffices markedly Turning majority anymore portrayed estimating few draw regarding (net thereby remarkably And repeated lag arbitrary making unsuitable 41The incorporates opposing forces Most (we F) implausible underlines improper keep mind ‘naïve’ (lack connection invests suffer Finally cross-correlations mid-1980s settle 42 ‘paradox’ Kenworthy replicate methodology find disappeared coverage disappearance receives programs aimed low-paid eighties means-tested designed non-working Yet advocated conviction selective forcefully cited assertions ‘services services’ (Titmuss 1969) ‘programs programs’ (Rainwater 1982 42) ‘good program shrinkage’ (Grosh 1992) entertain logic complimentary: introductory Mechelen Pintelon pondering 43 AN ‘EFFICIENCY SCOREBOARD’ WITH REGARD Some feeble Other listed visualize Benchmark measure: lists sample (EU27 Norway) demeaned large; states44 Central states45 Southern46 nations47 above efficiencies’ predicted over- underperforms ‘An caveat generosity universalism/targeting usually totality parental Aspects deployed segments classes willing pay resonates depending considering Long-term after affecting primarily skilled ethnic minorities socio-economically vulnerable higher-skilled exposed unlikely willingness pay; pertinent ‘new’ evenly parenthood life) expected pressures unemployment) leave’ (Cantillon forthcoming) 44 Referring Czech Republic 46 47 ‘residual’ once always benchmarked interested construct artificial anchor squared minimized resemble residuals benchmarks’: Here solve problem: intensity; impute minimizes errors imputed moving 49 compensates vice versa correcting percent compensated Malta ‘residuals’ Cyprus establishes ‘conditional gauges conceal employment-friendly liable criticism spending: enhances organization repairing firmly nevertheless variance generally dynamics Many completely Correcting negligible 50 swings state51 (conditionally) turns ‘inefficient’ (benchmark D) saw pro-rich accounts efficiencies visible cancelled express importantly Transfer Adding corrections loglinear (conditional) graph axis (linear) strong: Put systematically (normal) A4) high-spending insignificantly 65 logs) almost Luxemburg outlier 53 10] 11] portrays countrylevel heavy (pensionheaviness population54) achievers remain heavily interrelated ‘true’ ‘unexplained’ (This effect: (nonpension) incentivize live answer ‘what affects unchanged?’ panel; ceteris paribus 56 5] extremes drops 54 macro ‘political economy’ oriented striking exploration disappears character jump constitute conclusive Furthermore depend remaining puzzles wide played macro-data student convincing 57 primary secondary (Gini) (Bergh Fink Sylwester 2002) 58 Altogether returns childhood ‘investment deficit’ cut deficit; little doubt ingredient extra cuts CAVEATS identify vast nations badly leaves intact Poor puzzling Class (Card Kruger 1996) 1-2% per-pupil Hanushek concludes Woessman scores Institutional presence central exam autonomy scrutiny students’ teacher freedom teaching worthwhile incorporated strongest (when criterion) unobserved unsatisfactory tested universally Naïve estimations multiple (transfer) similarly addressed improvements Despite cautionary notes element agenda: judgments pervade debate: informed facts perception caveats conceptualization possibly insecurity promoting gender equality) specifically Theoretically income; ideally gap concerns sense: (that does) anything time: diminished reasons: immediately vis-à-vis uniform ‘European technology’ encompassing histories exclusion Even mini-states lightly affected moreover raises host problems: virtual drawing collected observer nonetheless enjoys popular middle-class cast size; refuting politically term; fifth rejoinder Pestieau’s introducing judging influences aspect changed Tax quality accessibility activation proven fight joblessness contributed homogamy partners contributes polarization) limited GENERAL Macro-economic Procedure level: showed legitimacy: represents Legitimacy systems; essential input observers economists deeply worried Huge root differential trajectories mid-2000’s cushioning homework raise embody ‘contracts’ instantiate burden processes puts ‘strong’ ‘weak’ unimportant puzzle simplistic bring aspects makers supported demonstrated 1980s contribution ‘naïve regression’ correctly convincingly; par excellence While ‘unexplained disparity’ remarkable finding contradictory sight endogenous) dependence non-pension foretells doomed diminish cross-correlation fighting well-organized complementary emphasized panacea ills eschew easy rhetoric ‘win-win policies’ tensions conflicts arise pursuing narrow budgetary margins disequilibria offer substantive purpose EU) favour marks discourse corollary survival recalibration conjure democratic predicament put challenge medium-term consolidation mutually balanced coordination serve goal constructive Conditional tangible reforms inclusive removed top-down all’ policy-making of: room manoeuver opt strategy; guidance stringent constraining well-defined genuine scope ways elaborate clear: reformist acquis cherish credible agenda highest REFERENCES Adema W P Fron M Ladaique Really Expensive? 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Dutch ESPAnet October Rotterdam Australian Tax-Transfer System: Architecture Outcomes Record 86 275: 528-544 Schooling Bulletin 117-170 APPENDIX ACCORDING VS BASIS A1 A2 Feseau micro-survey entirely (like register) (2008)) collection investigates regarded correct) salaries National Accounts categories considerably self-employment (especially occupational ‘housing benefits’ elderly ‘pensions’ trying match micro (Feseau MODEL SELECTION SENSITIVITY tests (heterosekdasticity serial contemporaneous decision evaluated case-to-case typical Podesta (2002 example) exactly spenders pensions; cyclical frame (2009-2010) 2005-2008 contaminated affordable consistently crises; pressure occurred continuously underestimate assumed impact) Initial renders restrict pre-crisis (referring 2005-2008) deteriorating Measures imposed cumbersome reduced controllable want answering execute fully samples missing A1] biggest Standard specified lagged marginally sensitive) included dropping drop (early Presumably A2] (low) (outliers (small (Scandinavian records) omissions stable uphold SUMMARY STATISTICS Tables A3 A4 employed indicators) A3] A4] FIGURES TABLES Levels (2005-2011) Source: Website accessed relate GEO/TIME % AROP Floating Fixed (1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 95% -3 -0 106% -1 86% -2 115% 101% 117% -5 118% Austria 127% -4 144% 147% -9 128% 143% -14 138% Luxembourg 132% -12 119% -6 130% 131% 121% -16 124% -7 -21 Threshold At-risk-of-poverty [0-17]: Change 2008-2011 threshold) 2008-2010 cz dk ee ie gr es cy lv lt lu hu mt nl pl pt si sk fi uk y = 2071x 0935 R² 5981 -60% -40% -20% 0% 80% 100% 120% -15% -10% -5% 5% Percentage 2009-SILC exc IE UK) 2010/2008 ‘fixed’ GDP/capita 2009-2011) Lineair (2008-2010 2009-2011)) Very wi [0 85-1] 55-0 85] Medium 45- 55] Low 2-0 45] [0-0 [0-17] (wi) + pre-and Work 2004-2009; 2005-2006 IS SI SE DK NO SK LI FI PT LV CY ET NL FR BE PL CZ RO ES LU AU GR BG DE HU IT MT (0-100) Pre-crisis (2005-2008) Post-crisis (over 2005-2010) indices Severity Abs vertical (for segment) 00 Key hh programmes) EUROSTAT 15% 25% 30% eq 2008; (working-age GDP; 2007) Pensions 35% Age Cash Benefits Main (fixed model) Note: (AROP) Controls 0-55) (very 0-20) (PP PP Dependent (AROP_wp) (AROP_wr) (pov_red) reduction; comprising 2004-2010 [SILC 2005-2010] 2004-2009 until complete 165 Relative 075 (0 076) 016 223) 226*** 071) 53*** 397) 22*** 194) 235*** 274* 165) 70*** 412) 26*** 202) 233*** 081) 429*** 172) 85*** 413) 19*** 987 (2 10) 66** 795) 831*** 127) 363 422) 56*** 787) 92*** 428) 982*** 163) 624 437) 13** 840) 87*** 417) (3 81) 67* 0028 054) 335*** 126) 46*** 313) 318** 153) 028 058) 326** 154) 54*** 318) 345** 683 (1 407 595) Pov Red (excl 15*** 052) 35*** 070) 06*** 294) 394** 189) 24*** 62) (incl 063) 07*** 201) 36*** 798*** 196) 900*** 337) 661*** 214) 20*** 85) 254 61 available) AT EE LT gini disp pop 62 Impact Rel X1 X2 Base 71*** 195) Add 242*** 072) 159) 408) 197) 000082 000077) 220*** 140 192) 52*** 398) 200) 202 (young/old) 221*** 202*** 174) 89*** 416) 02*** 382** 160) 203 198) 474** 187) 23*** 586) 19* 705) 415*** 48*** 381) 720) 30*** 694) 367 594) 525*** 164) 33*** 328) 63*** 592) 570 667) 178 110) 503*** 39*** 03*** 670) 712 790) 526** 259) (indicated table) (internal inequality) lowly purchasing parity Dependency referring 64 15-64 0-14 (source: Eurostat) Correlations SumTP WP Sev sev PPT pens GDP/0063 DR_Y DR_O Educ Ed Ac 372*** Sum Trans+Pens 893*** 086 087 219*** 014 Severe pov 378*** 0020 405*** 550*** 535*** 204*** 476*** 106 744*** 409*** 284*** 301*** 012 347*** 417*** 142* 057 125 129* 160** 141* 011 GDP/cap 344*** 619*** 069 115 148* 054 318*** Dep rat 386*** 515*** 165** 036 312*** 419*** 238*** 555*** 026 197*** 124 032 018 211*** 264*** 023 388*** att 393*** 208** 329*** 358*** 103 027 150* Soc inv 506*** 601*** 239 604*** 170 361* 279 113 167 591*** 066 237 Ineq 195 306 043 021 198 235 130 034 291 111 045 409** ach 112 387** 089 305 364* 184 081 127 068 080 285 329* 192 487*** 672*** 197** 510*** 253*** 128* 380*** 096 394*** 471*** 139* 316*** 715*** 328 508*** 436*** 574*** 189** 030 145* 156** 509*** 495*** 174** 088 493*** 334 423** 749*** (educational investment) 0-17; poor; rel 0-59; capita; ratio; dep educ (share educated/share educated); soc labor policy; ineq scores; PISA; Country [0-17]; additionally -10 w r t (performance) (measures efficiency) displays (efficiency pro-poorness) au bu fr ic la li ro 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Mean Residuals 66 propoorness) lali 67 (no breakdown (ISCED 5- 6) 0-2) Internal (unemployment sickness disability non-elsewhere exclusion) LU= Regression WI) WI; reduced) 513*** 142 205) 250 225) 206) 825*** 99*** 14*** 589) 16*** 539) 647*** 528 508) 675) 025 573) 471** 000027 00015) 0000029 000050 00013) capita: 768*** 57** (5 96) 83** (6 29) 84** 99) 101 72 48) (7 09) 68) 240 354 15) 274 40) 505*** 287) 258 314) 457** 405** 452** 860 901) 711 723) 722 868) 05 763) 68 00% 02% 04% 06% 08% 12% 14% 16% 18% 02 04 06 08 (Eurostat) Esspros SILC2008; 45° (Esspros transfers) 69 PLPT 05% survivors A1: Lagged Baseline 429** 046) 40*** 068) Pooled OLS 478*** 138) OLS: 357*** 107) 208 292) 129** 050) 201* 111) 752*** 047) Random 469*** 084) 699*** 224) dummies) 288*** 098) 264 293) Differences 099) 802*** GLS: Correct autocorrelation 228*** 064) 122 Panel 230*** 048) 114 124) dropped (within) estimator correction *Significant **significant ***significant 1% 71 A2: Drop 224*** 080) 406*** 149) 978*** 176) 647 435) 100* 424** 179) 42*** 085) 610*** 209) 170** 407** 170) 790*** 466) 111* 061) 240* 133) 088) 750*** 322) 273 992*** 181) 561 480) 0037 044) 259* 155) 087) 804*** 210) 086) 499*** 177) 17*** 171) 715 515) 247 066) 188** 265 865*** 686 441) 029 233 07d) 814*** 401*** 091) 323 245) 162) 084 529) 067 764*** 760*** 2009-2010 491*** 090) 496** 231) 147) 214 0042 090 552** 253) 829*** 203** 083) 470** 175) 055 557) 0087 062) 445*** 169) 082) 885*** 228) 152* 358** 892*** 180) 674 504) 060) 187 173) 078) 624*** IC 304*** 745* 411) 061 057) 349** 27*** 901*** FE 271*** 089) 556*** 08*** 855** 394) 035 059) 388** 158) 34*** 075) 786*** 207) A3: Non-elderly Pre-transfer Reduction 87 10914 07 88 735 9958 2665 93 75 98 03 10580 Rep 74 5423 79 82 91 146 10224 3989 09 9513 9761 90 895 10183 77 7062 81 92 3825 80 84 11701 10140 8761 3444 3446 16156 97 7662 01 604 10724 76 815 076 3714 5439 1938 95 7859 7862 630 10016 Un 10672 A4: Ind Att Structure 180 899 150 280 194 079 0055 0038 217 675 99 059 257 143 190 065 072 156 951 040 077 022 176 044 141 185 094 883 89 147 189 94 591 134 145 050 790 109 311 163 717 191 056 152 788 126 157 091 0026 144 073 0029 175 680 201 060 259 169 033 149 083 062 133 252 405 098 154 070 172 729 153 615 128 0031 160 074 132 20-59 Indicators inverted See A6 description