Retraites: Leçons des réformes belges, Fondation pour l’Innovation Politique

Geplaatst op 18 februari 2020 door Frank Vandenbroucke

Frank VANDENBROUCKE RETRAITES : LEÇONS DES RÉFORMES BELGES Février 2020 fondapol org La Fondation pour l’innovation politique est un think tank libéral progressiste et européen Président Nicolas Bazire Vice-Président Grégoire Chertok Directeur général Dominique Reynié du Conseil scientifique d’évaluation Christophe de Voogd FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE Un Née en 2004 la s’inscrit dans une perspective libérale européenne Par ses travaux elle vise deux objectifs contribuer à débat pluraliste documenté inspirer décision publique Reconnue d’utilité met gratuitement disposition tous totalité sur le site De plus sa plateforme data permet chacun consulter l’ensemble des données collectées cadre enquêtes Ses bases sont utilisables prolongement d’ouverture partage publiques voulue par gouvernement Enfin lorsqu’il s’agit d’enquêtes internationales les proposées différentes langues questionnaire soit exemple 33 l’enquête Démocraties sous tension menée 42 pays peut dédier partie son activité enjeux qu’elle juge stratégiques Ainsi groupe travail « Anthropotechnie » examine initie explorant nouveaux territoires ouverts l’amélioration humaine clonage reproductif l’hybridation homme-machine l’ingénierie génétique manipulations germinales Il contribue réflexion au transhumanisme propose articles traitant éthiques philosophiques politiques que pose l’expansion innovations technologiques domaine corps capacités humaines indépendante n’est subventionnée aucun parti ressources privées SOMMAIRE INTRODUCTION 9 I. L’ÉVOLUTION SYSTÈMES PUBLICS DE RETRAITE SELON L’AGEING WORKING GROUP (AWG) 11 II. LE SYSTÈME PENSION BELGE 18 III. LA STRATÉGIE GOUVERNEMENTS QUANT AU VIEILLISSEMENT ET RAPPORT COMMISSION RÉFORME PENSIONS 2020-2040 22 IV. APERÇU MESURES PRISES APRÈS PUBLICATION DU 26 V. TROIS DÉBATS SUR CONTRAT INTERGÉNÉRATIONNEL 28 VI. À RECHERCHE D’UNE LIBERTÉ RÉELLE ÉQUITABLE 32 VII. DÉBÂCLE QUESTION MÉTIERS PÉNIBLES 36 CONCLUSION 39 RÉSUMÉ En avril 2013 Belgique Commission réforme pensions (CRP) a été mise place ministres charge fédéral belge Cette commission organisations sociales composée douze experts déposé rapport juin 2014 quelques jours après élections législatives Elle plaidait faveur d’une profondeur système afin créer nouvelle sécurité Le formé ces repris lignes force grande propositions accord d’octobre affirmant explicitement qu’il prendrait comme base réformes structurelles suite si dirigé Charles Michel pris mesures importantes notamment concernant l’âge retraite aucune structurelle n’a l’instant vu jour Au cours législature 2014-2019 blocage questions métiers pénibles finalement mené impasse totale Force constater qu’actuellement dépit bonnes intentions confusion l’inquiétude règnent ce qui concerne VANDENBROUCKE* Professeur l’université d’Amsterdam coordinateur président académique 1 2 * Les opinions mentionnées cette étude n’engagent auteur non institutions lesquelles il travaille documents téléchargeables www conseilacademiquepensions be communiqué presse 16 p (www be/docs/fr/communique-de-presse-commission-reforme-pensions pdf) CRP intitulé contrat social performant fiable Propositions régimes téléchargeable be/docs/fr/rapport-062014-fr pdf Tout long note référence se fera l’appellation Rapport 2. Accord octobre premier be/sites/default/files/articles/Accord_de_Gouvernement_-_Regeerakkoord S’il existe certain nombre différences entre systèmes français y aussi similitudes remarquables arguments développés sein (pour Belgique) avancés l’ancien haut-commissaire retraites 3 juillet 2019 examen instructif C’est l’objectif limite public organisé pilier obligatoire Dans jargon souvent décrites légales expression sera ainsi utilisée Appliquée France notion couvre Français appellent régime complémentaires également obligatoires publics s’appuient principe répartition Pour bien saisir suit autre aspect terminologie mérite d’être clarifié Ce l’on appelle l’« âge légal départ partir duquel tout monde accès compris carrière courte Cet actuellement 65 ans mais législation prévoit augmentation étapes atteindre 67 2030 4 d’« taux plein – on sans décote quel trimestres validés très importante n’existe pas simple raison n’y ni surcote proposé d’introduire (sans utiliser expression) ; s’agirait d’un individualisé fonction durée première section fournit quantitatives l’évolution terme (le public) utilisant estimations l’Ageing Working Group 5 l’Union d’identifier immédiatement niveau macro certaines défis auxquels confrontés deuxième présente façon synthétique troisième introduit 3. recommandations Jean-Paul Delevoye publié septembre nommé haut- commissaire aux Retraites délégué auprès ministre Solidarités Santé Agnès Buzyn démissionne poste décembre remplacé Laurent Pietraszewski 4. 62 expliqué texte qu’à cet pension ne accordée avec 5. (Ageing AWG) Comité durabilité vieillissement populations constitué évaluations finances conséquences économiques États-membres aider formation Voir Union Ageing Populations and Sustainability (https://europa eu/epc/working-groups-epc/working-group-ageing-populations-and-sustainability_en) plaçant stratégie poursuivie gouvernements belges avant 2011 articulée autour défi population quatrième donne aperçu prises publication c’est-à-dire cinquième résume essentielles posent société tant intergénérationnel proposée sixième décrit vision problématique flexibilité septième évoque question conclusion nous interrogeons raisons l’échec annoncée l’accord leçons tirer L’Ageing publie trois analyse dynamique concentrant fondée méthodologie uniforme validée États membres donc utile exercice comparatif Évidemment l’exercice projections extrêmement délicat faut comprendre sens limites On prophétiser situation économique sociale d’ici 2040 outil d’analyse pédagogique illustrant dynamiques possibles d’hypothèses variables risques présentent l’AWG développe fort intéressante centrales ajoutant hypothèses principales éventail démographiques graphiques tableaux L’année 2016 l’année récente laquelle dispose d’observations réelles dernier (celui 2018) 6 2070 chiffres résultent Elles reflètent toutes décisions effectivement rédaction 6. The 2018 Report Economic Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2016-2070) Institutional Paper 079 Publications Office of European mai (https://ec europa eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip079_en Pensions projection dépenses % PIB 12 14 15 0 8 Zone euro 13 Source AWG 10 2025 2035 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 l’innovation (12 PIB) étaient comparables moyenne zone élevées atteignaient 7 Ceci étant différente selon centrale estimé stabilisent vers puis diminuent scénario central anticipe significative poids stabilisation comparable celui observé aujourd’hui Vis-à-vis scénarios suggèrent renversement positions 7. publications définies peu haut d’orientation (COR) COR était alentours Cependant tendances mêmes Notons inclut déjà fait s’élèvera 66 ceux n’ont longue) d’autres loin l’étude Bien soient compte estimer approximative l’impact Di Rupo situe probablement ordre grandeur L’AWG paramètre servir d’indicateur parmi soutenabilité benefit ratio c’est- à-dire (brute) relative revenu d’activité moyen (brut) Pension (benefit ratio) 41 43 40 50 44 35 38 d’activité 60 30 20 8. d’étude (CEV) chargé annuel budgétaires 2015 qu’un train diminuerait d’ici ou hypothèse moins optimiste relèvement minimum conditions l’accès anticipée suppression bonus bonification diplôme l’évaluation condition anticipé différence (2 %) liée matière comportement Si ajoute autres semble correct dire total élevé qu’en (41 contre Néanmoins censé rester stable tandis diminution explique considérable réduction prix payer maîtrise inclure érosion assez prononcée générosité futures seul où apparaît crucial montre rôle toute série biais décomposition spécifique quatre paramètres dépendance démographique couverture côté retraités l’autre personnes diminue quand prise reportée reflète d’évolutions sociologique spontanées d’emploi tableau ci-contre résultats 9. trajectoire compliquée (il augmente commence diminuer graduellement) Soulignons évolution évolutions ratios projetées s’explique mécanismes complexes effets composition (voir 23-24) revenus bruts Sans approfondi prétendre qu’une synonyme qualité ait évident Décomposition l’évolution (en points pourcentages) Évolution 2016-2040 2016-2070 Niveau en% + expliqués par… Impact -1 Effet d’interaction (résiduel) démographie (hors taille populations) changent effet serait d’augmenter (à important cependant compensé report (qui reflété couverture) L’impact facteur revanche présumé être plutôt augmentent (c’est-à-dire impact prononcé France) message découle coincé trade-off difficile financière capable d’allonger carrières point effective avoir savoir clés produit spécifiques mis part observées sensibles sensibilité forte macroéconomique pessimiste croissance factor productivity (une mesure globale productivité économique) modeste convergeant pourcentage dès comparaison augmenterait confirmée partant COR) 51 même passant analyses similaires alternatives vue rassurantes (davantage chercheurs ont diagnostic intéressant citer in extenso parce au-delà excellente l’inspiration Peut-on conclure qu’on parvenu bout processus ? éléments peuvent plaider thèse inverse vraiment amélioré lisibilité règles demeurent hétérogènes toujours faciles contrôler parfois contradiction affichés opacité alimente soupçons d’inégalité traitement catégories d’assurés insatisfaisante 10. Évolutions perspectives 83-87 cor-retraites fr/sites/default/files/2019-06/doc-4646 situent fourchette optimistes période 11. d’études conseilsuperieurdesfinances be/sites/default/files/public/publications/csf_vieillissement_2019_07 annuelle faible inférieur près coût budgétaire s’élève regard assigner second attendue retraites/PIB s’avère variable […] Même financières beaucoup améliorées l’équilibre financier reste tributaire cas pourraient aller contraire deçà besoins d’équilibrage ampleur eu lieu chantiers restent simplification-harmonisation recherche pilotage résoudraient mieux problème double exposition l’incertitude Autrement dit gérer incertitudes équitable transparente retrouve Comme verrons pages suivent c’est jusqu’ici passé analogie d’ordre technique problématiques française cités notent choix effectué 1987 basculement indexation salaires années 1980 1990 suivi parcours modalités calcul initiales travailleurs salariés indépendants attribuées moment retraite) souci d’économies l’indexation remplacée préconisée réintroduire stabilité crée gouvernance seulement technocratique contexte relativement favorable mécanisme d’assainissement uns) d’érosion autres) planifié discuté ouvertement défaut transparence gestion caractérise 12. Didier Blanchet Antoine Bozio Simon Rabaté Quelles options réduire Revue vol n° 880-881 cairn info/revue-economique-2016-4-page-879 htm) 13. D’où l’insistance règle d’or l’importance voir Édito universel Préconisations ministère 3-5 respect id 110-111 (https://reforme-retraite gouv fr/IMG/pdf/retraite_01-09_leger 14. fonctionnaires l’histoire paiement complexe nuancée 15. avis dominé (la légale ») comprend différents financée faisant abstraction spécificités détails techniques cotisations taxes versées actives financent actuels L’encadré 21 informations méthode manière générale montant proportionnel professionnelle rémunérations perçues celle-ci montants élevés plafonnées plafonds restrictif ailleurs principes d’assimilation assurent périodes chômage maladie invalidité (prise normal) pénalisée corrections actuarielles négatives (des décotes plupart garantissant minimale termes tradition bismarckienne l’origine dimension contributive lien cotisé d’année année limitée dimensions contributives nettement généreux distributif généreuse celle secteur privé l’inégalité flagrante aspects l’objet récentes controverses l’encadré situé n’existait supprimée tantièmes préférentiels créent divergences 16. Notre présentation fonde ici l’article d’Océane Bertrand Sarah Scaillet Fonctionnement actuel Benoît Bayenet Maxime Fontaine Dimitri Léonard Alexandre Piraux (dir ) Réforme quels sociétaux Larcier 69-110 compléter l’observation bénéficient extralégales eux-mêmes inégaux 17 formules (différentes) organisées financé capitalisation 2003 avait objectif généralisation (ou démocratisation approche sectorielle ancrée négociation collective résultat bénéficiaires primes investies plans sectoriels capitaux payés limités caractérisé inégalités considérables égalitaire inégalité inégalitaire observe écart celles englobe prestations financées privatisés entraînent coûts) structurel distribution actifs différent 19 notons familiale datée comporte difficiles justifier mariage traditionnel droits dérivés cohabitation 17. exposé détaillé auquel confronté Ria Janvier particuliers op cit 291-330 18. Parmi pensionnés âgés 69 ayant pure salarié 64 hommes femmes disposent (les pourcentages 23 2011) Chez 47 (29 mixtes ils atteignent CEV 19. L’enquête SILC (Statistics Income Living Conditions) disponibles déductions contributions ménage standardisé personne) médian égal 104 encore âgées 77 jeunes (observations 2017) marquée âgée qu’au jeune S80/S20 (un indicateur d’inégalité) 25 06 91 génère sociaux européens motivation refonder contrepartie d’améliorer n’en isolé formule s’applique divorce Calcul calcule individuellement chaque d’occupation pendant personne travaillé d’inactivité assimilées (chômage involontaire invalidité…) civile issue certaine calculée suivante rémunération coefficient réévaluation 45 d’isolé (60 75 appliqué tenir revue baisse hausse D’une plafonnée sorte supérieure plafond s’élevait 57 606 euros D’autre relevée salaire garanti travailleur remplisse outre final seuil déterminé garantie éventuellement octroyée justifiant trente précises exact critères alternatifs critère souple strict minima compliqué toutefois complète (45 années) bénéficie 582 46 mois (taux ménage) 266 37 d’isolé) mariés dont conjoint cessé perçoit remplacement lorsque conjoints élevée supérieur somme suspendu calculé service admissibles tantième s’appuie plafonné correspondant dix dernières inférieure introduite d’au 1er janvier 2012 conservent l’ancien mode cinq service) représente fraction accordé admissible fixé 1/60 (étant donné excéder 45/60 référence) réglementation avantageux permettant certains constituer rapidement maximum 1/55 enseignants 1/50 services (bpost douaniers…) 1/48 personnel roulant HR Rail magistrats professeurs d’université relevé bénéficiaient supérieures moyennant transition enjeu clé projets joue détermine Traditionnellement temps études l’obtention l’enseignement exigé recrutement nomination définitive promotion ultérieure valorisé déterminent supprimé bonifications limité types relatif quarts d’autre dépasser absolu 668 68 brut simplifiant Jusqu’en successifs face axes premièrement préfinancement dette deuxièmement l’augmentation 55 quittait massivement marché préretraites allocations lequel créé fonds 2001 préretraite visait pérenniser modèle existant entamé limiter exceptions Une lancée 1997 aligné progressivement Auparavant augmenté 2009 L’accès restait possible renforcée trente-cinq 2005 Après (2011-2014) développer vrai chantier n’était crédible essentiellement paramétriques concernait décidé d’élever graduellement d’accès requise (salariés indépendants) (fonctionnaires) 20. Sur Frédérique Denil Vincent Frogneux Saintrain création abrégé décennies 133-156 31-36 sûr écoulées significatives suscité débats quarante L’argument fallait augmenter effectif sortie dessous ans) changer devait constat principal résumé malgré franchies grâce trop doutes d’incertitudes subsistent sujet représentera l’avenir partiront devront évitait l’alarmisme estimait dus inchangée tel existait viable financièrement sauf fonctions protection l’autorité sacrifiées Ces pouvaient dissipées nouvelles devaient miser Selon liés l’opacité fondamentale comment présentera quoi reposera rendue intéressés formuler conclusions avons évoquée 24 envisageait profonde l’intégration fonctionnaires) proposait communs appliqués L’ambition trouver convergence l’approche ambitieuse véritablement 21. Toutefois d’égalité groupes professionnels art Lorsque lié convenu titre compromis bénéficiant leur multipliée d’augmentation vertu vigueur correspond 05 2022 cumulé réputée satisfaire l’exigence L’intention supprimer classique exercent métier pénible suivant exercé auraient réalisation débâcle entourant reconnaissance décrite notre rien cela s’est concrétisé 22. 23. Ibid 24. 25. conséquence d’utiliser valeurs l’affilié impliquait délicates graduelle diplômes légitimité idée réactions résistances résumait Chaque devra pouvoir suivre constitution variera perçus créera clair moyens veiller maintien marges souhaitables prélevées Des jeu fixées l’avance assureront seront atteints maintenu juste efforts Cela impliquera d’ajustement intégrés caractère automatique Mécanismes implication interlocuteurs pair 27 jamais but soi c’était envisagée certes radicalement s’agissait révolution fond résidait passage comptabilisant seule substantielle équivalent (ré)introduction rendre 26. insistait fondé fin s’appuierait devrait accompagné neutraliserait l’optique économie modernisation d’encourager mobilité d’éliminer pervers 27. accessible succinct Jean Hindriks Pierre Devolder Erik Schokkaert Vandenbroucke Regards 130 mars 2017 regards-economiques be/images/reco-pdf/reco_169 28. déclarés proposition critiques l’Institut national d’assurances (Inasti) signalait risque volatilité cyclique solutions l’Inasti échanges intéressants performance cœur Mais l’expliquerons retenue prônait défaitiste quant pourrait allongement présentés précédente 29 sauvegarder rassurante maîtrisant coûts l’élément expliquait d’âge devraient évoluer examiné égard suffisamment longue attirait l’attention possibilités succès soulignait formulait définitives présentait raisonner concrétiser phase n’ignorait l’allongement inégale tâches familiales misait resterait correction objective correcte réintroduction type actuariel surcote-décote bonus-malus d’anticipation existé jusqu’à début Vingt-cinq tard fut Supprimer réformer justes tenant grandes erreurs 2006 Verhofstadt remédiait partiellement résultant créait incitant stimulant prolongation 29. l’objectif poursuivre doit défini précise influencé formalisée Towards an Equitable Sustainable Points System A Proposal Reform Belgium Journal Economics Finance 49-79 l’architecture pertinente restée renforcement l’une premières d’encaisser économies immédiates souhaitait allonger valoriser encourage évidemment l’anticipation mettait cause financement dominant d’instituer contractuels récemment engagés 31 structuré stimulé cohérente étendu physique moderniser d’harmoniser consacrée 30. encadré (« réformé 39-41 L’impératif 197-222 31. l’esprit l’introduction bas page 34) 32. notes s’appuient résumés rapports annuels 33. Voici synthèse progressif (jusqu’à 63 quarante-deux longues) bénéficier survie (période transitoire conditions) instauration mixte 34 progressive (dans publique) harmonisation régularisation facultatif l’unité indépendant modification valorisation controversées Quelques-unes d’entre elles inspirées directement indirectement lui L’idée disparu l’agenda l’écart grand promesse sections suivantes penchons davantage telle promise mettre évidence décalage 34. Avant contractuelles accordées définitif statutaires implique nominations intervenues compteront lors relevant concerné 35. dite 040 journées équivalentes limitation signifie dépassement avantageuses autrement s’il travaillées repose defined benefits trait uniquement statut familial bénéficiaire individuel (revenus etc baby-boom l’espérance vie d’argent financer actée pratique d’éviter engendre permanente fréquemment Existe-t-il Depuis oppose écoles L’une voit privatisation l’unique solution C’est inexact développera l’argumentation partisans partielle école préconise remplacer prestation définie contribution définitivement s’ajustent puisque celui-ci fixe doivent baisser vieillit tenter travailler gens longtemps conduit nécessairement maintenir finalité Notional Defined Contributions (NDC) utilisé Suède comptes notionnels 36. impliquent importants l’a instauré espérer l’effet restera marginal architecture je persiste croire annulée Avis l’avant-projet loi instaurant libre complémentaire be/docs/fr/20180703-136%20-%20Position%20CA%20PLCS%20fr%20Déf expressément opposée suédois (et définies) extrêmes seuls assurer l’ajustement entièrement fixes véritable solidarité générations suppose positif négatif réparti puissent Parce qu’ils partagent bons modèles fixité illusion continuellement ajustés précisément fausse l’expérience viables unilatéralement inévitables plaidé constitue ambition justice intergénérationnelle partenaires législateur définissent ensemble entendent l’ambition moyennes (nets contribution) adéquat durable définir stipuler nécessaires circonstances prioritaire fonctionnerait insuffisant 37. NDC expliquée détail 38. L’expression revu liaison bien-être formalisation (mathématique) l’équité discussion précis 39. d’appel Agirc-Arrco offre bel pur basés nominal vraies payées égales multiplié Je remercie information fois (l’avis basait modération d’avis soustraite vicissitudes budget l’État rupture explicite 2000 forcément adhérer concrète formulée convient mener d’abord quelle doit-il apporter Persiste-t-on garantit est-on prêt penser décent contributions) l’indiquait généraux ensuite promettre s’accorde ancrer enfin ajustements continuer réaliser définit-on présent futurs indépendamment (c’est suivie présent) sont-ils effectués préalablement convenue L’avantage dernière s’accommoder flexible inconnues noter portent choisit Est-ce est-ce d’évoluer discrétionnaires 40. qu’« désormais valeur apportera équité permettra constant rythme d’acquisition individu liquidation d’assurer relatives (Pour Jean- Paul Delevoye… 111) d’accord l’être l’ancrage convenus n’aime genre quasi-automatisme prôné intermédiaires nuancées laissant paritaire Malheureusement perçu invitation concertation ouverte rédigé laps court formulé abstraits concret profité consultations durant 2014- focalisé ponctuelles assimilés recentré maintenant pauvreté adoptée 2014-2015 d’emblée acteurs annonçant adoucie L’essentiel posées ignoré syndicats aussitôt défensive s’en lancer nature garanties eux d’insécurité évolutif Parlement d’expliquer conception 41. semblaient invoquait chap innovante 86-94) Audrey Rain Tô Quel Notes l’IPP ipp eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/n43-notesIPP-juin2019 42. Parlons-en ! Synthèse verbatim rencontres-débats politique-Fondation Jaurès org/etude/synthese-et-verbatim-des-rencontres-debats-un-systeme-universel-de-retraite- parlons-en/) d’équité réelle Résultat purement affabulations entraînant inquiétude avions soulevé fondamentales apporte-t-il garantit-il évolue-t-il tranché Mener sérieusement indispensable sortir l’impasse Compte tenu nombreux prennent inévitable veut actuelle voire l’améliorer souhaitable Allonger faire respectant proportionnalité normale prônent ignorer capacité actif satisfaisantes varient corrélation l’espérance bonne santé malheureusement empirique établie professionnellement perçus) entendu devons œuvrer meilleures active formes d’organisation d’autonomie d’autogestion facteurs savons qu’ils contribuent volonté n’en demeure 43. illustration urgence absolue 237-264 généralement exercés hautement qualifiées corrélations statistiques statistique renvoie d’entamer large liberté souhaitent prendre n’aiment concentrer leurs propres veulent projet convergent exemples classiques académiques chefs d’entreprise professions libérales hasard plaident volontiers considérations renforcer partait préférences introduire soutenable plan perçue pivot déterminant Était symétriquement positives visent éviter reçoivent décès d’autant précoce reposent légitimes demande B identiques signifier flux attendu attendre) évitent d’anticiper encouragée existent quasiment curieusement n’existent III) particularité fonder illustrer Imaginez qualifiée commencé demander négative quarante-cinq soumise actuarielle âge-là normal arrête autant attendre 63e anniversaire l’idée reçoive moindre prend (complète partielle) obtiendrait continue matière) Déterminer cruciale équilibre degré souplesse voulu mène courtes norme aboutira l’activité adéquates d’équilibre l’occasion d’envisager paliers distinction droit partiel observations supplémentaires observation impossible rédiger code ayants prévoir tardivement l’ont interrompue fixée ceci semblerait passer Quoi pense manque rouvrir erreur réfléchir remplacerait saurait néanmoins V) seconde fortiori marge combinaison rémunéré souhaite permettre combiner appliquer sortes limitations administratives choisiront option l’expression l’individu inspirant décote) dépend 44. consacré distinct autorisé verser améliorer discutée Jacques Boulet Béa Cantillon al Métiers SPF Sécurité (http://hdl handle net/2078 1/165556) 45. Aujourd’hui limitées 46. Suivant logique aurait lier libéralisation (62 quarante-trois annuités (selon génération concernée) trimestre manquant atteinte L’âge 1955 L’ancien disparaître l’avait conçu n’aurait dépendu identique sous-jacente semblait incite créant visible d’impact comportements controversés 48 surprenant (autrement appelé couler d’encre négocié retire provisoirement l’attente équilibrer fini Expressément d’instaurer exerçant mettant l’accent optait réglementaire différenciation 49 47. similitude existants ressort graphique d’Antoine Faut-il barème eu/wp-content/ uploads/2019/06/n42-notesIPP-juin2019 48. ibid auteurs souscrivent proposent cible (par salaire) suggestion s’agit d’une individuelle assuré ajoutent élément subtil assurés longues tardif bénéficié 49. distincte vite compenserait donnait s’agir catégorie procédure attribuerait l’entière responsabilité sélection enveloppe fermée Concrètement traduire relation pourcentage) l’enveloppe (4 attribués égard) admettre devenir pluriannuelle pouvant considérablement reposait reconnu tôt générique perte compensée mensuel reçue tard) reconnaître Entre-temps climat tellement détérioré employeurs pu totalement bloqué promis (l’une définis incompréhension l’opinion chez coalition compensation réaliste 50. basé l’octroi facilite envisager dehors 51. Pénibilité mission conciliation Mr Soete Étienne Calattaÿ (http://cnpc fgov be/txt/fr/doc19-01 légitime boulanger coin rue furieux entend enseignant réalise ponction compenser framing présentée conceptualisée avéré contre-productif accepter associées heurté indignation débloquer nécessaire dissocier présenté secteurs 52 autocritique rendus n’étaient clairs 53 morale histoire judicieux qu’élément permette échelle touchent d’ayants définition inévitablement subjective contextuelle relève Donner gages n’est problèmes conditionnée 52. avouer rend dissociation délicate Débloquer requiert d’amélioration via employés 2014) 53. émis brièvement 42-44) suggéré d’établir sachant déroulement l’avis s’inscrire thématique Utilisés permettent enseignements valent Premièrement bloqués Or misant surmontable Deuxièmement développements particulièrement D’un stabiliser préférable commun souffre d’observer l’analyse d’experts préconisations nonobstant unique pourquoi animés distinctes complexité 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Solidarity through redistribution and insurance of incomes: the EU as Support, Guide, Guarantor or Provider?

Geplaatst op 11 februari 2020 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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The Amsterdam Centre for European Studies SSRN Research Paper 2020/01 Solidarity through redistribution and insurance of incomes: the EU as Support Guide Guarantor or Provider? Frank Vandenbroucke 1 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4 0 International License © 2020 University f i g vandenbroucke@uva nl www aces uva 2 Abstract Income are core functions welfare states What role should play in this domain? I examine purchase normative theorizing on social justice question building contrast between three models involvement: which implies sharing resources intergovernmental transfers; Provider cross-border transfers towards individual citizens; that formulates policy ideals review different accounts (Ronzoni Viehoff Sangiovanni Van Parijs) how they bear choice these involvement state solidarity These evolve two extreme positions On one hand an account based supranational ‘background nation states’ be mere instrument hands its member opposite position laboratory international distributive whereby national demoted to toolbox instruments argue must search middle ground neither nor conclude support some their key basis common standards pursuit upward convergence Such ‘Social Union’ would both realm Through establishment interstate it true ‘insurance union’ but from point view citizens not become direct It engage interpersonal Keywords: Union Social Europe basic income global 3 Introduction incomes rich poor case unemployment retirement illness longstanding Nation cherish sovereignty sensitive areas However coordination security entitlements mobile legal enforcement principles non-discrimination (EU) plays domain far trivial Since launching Open Method Coordination (OMC) inclusion also committed offering cognitive guidance fight against poverty already residual provider assistance albeit very marginal way via Fund Aid Most Deprived Is there arguments goes beyond acquis? In ongoing debates EU’s dimension array proposals effect A Directive minimum protection force all improve situation own country well-known proposal go existing model soft guidance: thereby shift being guarantor domestic Some scholars organize transnational thus itself redistribution: pan-European established For yet other participants first priority development European-wide risk instance by means Eurozone-level re-insurance schemes providing budgetary systems when need such scenario might principle limited background nevertheless involves material organization at level genuine benefit scheme has been proposed becomes M Daly dynamics Policy in: P Kennett N Lendvai-Bainton (eds ) Handbook Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing pp 93-107 J Greiss B Cantillon T Penne S Marchal agent fills gaps ? FEAD WP19/03 Herman Deleeck 2019 See reports produced Minimum Network (www emin-eu net) references earlier Anti-Poverty (EAPN); see Pillar Rights: ten prioritising 14 Ferrera (ed Towards Rights Roadmap fully-fledged Forum debate Torino Centro Einaudi euvisions eu) 54-63 Parijs Y Vanderborght Basic Radical Proposal Free Society Sane Economy Cambridge Mass : Harvard Press 2017 5 Finally emphasize curtail tax competition since undermines capacity governments maintain fair adequate funding states: what shared regulatory 6 short survey suffices illustrate roles with regard solidarity: can act guide provider…7 paper focus across borders organized EU; policies and/or (in policy-makers acts Guide; more binding speaking directly Guarantor) will elaborate exact definition ‘guarantees’ distinction – continuum possible however important discussions about 8 F promise delivery op cit 2-11; new Commission convince alive kicking 169-176 W Schelkle ahead Union? Let’s political citizenship taxation 157-159 7 My typology inspired owes much Claassen Gerbrandy Princen Segers (see R Four Models Protecting Citizenship Europe: Conclusions Special Issue ‘Rethinking Market Economy’ Journal Common Vol 57 No 159-174 January 159-174) There differences First describe ‘support’ congenial et al coin ‘Patron-of-nations’ levels shape arrangements defined only creates conditions able bring choices into effect; does interfere those simply refers supportive preclude interference Second although cannot upon context necessary make ‘guide’ ‘guarantor’ rights ‘guide/guarantor’ encompasses questions: whether speak rather than another extent ‘guidance’ reinforced ‘harder’ guarantees imply (cf next footnote) Various World Bank assess Latin American countries lens ‘social guarantees’: guarantee’ framework demanding; justiciable recently started use expression ‘guarantee’ looser sense packages recommended Member States Youth Guarantee Child Guarantee) How concept applied needs careful thought scope thank Francesco Corti drawing my attention Guide/Guarantor mutually exclusive EU: quite contrary may complementary reinforce each views underpinning them truly conflicting Hence aim delineation Admittedly following sense: without taking geopolitical considerations explain historical purpose exploration contemporary mission lacks bound highly abstract exercise; even difficult clear conclusion Nevertheless indispensable consequential alternative prominent philosophical do converge prescriptions 9 Two receive particular paper: re- discussion highlights limits ‘functional arguments’: pondering we bridge functional (the monetary union fiscal stabilizers) aspirations (adequate aspiration states) Appealing requires (why valuable?) discuss extensively because often presented most plausible if (since least intrusive w r t tax- schemes) argument relatively non-intrusive merits compared approach upshot implausible project except convinced any time include various suggests e supports (selective) Thus Maximum just minimum: pluralist justification Political Theory 16 164-187 justice’ (a conception emphasizes secure ‘real sovereignty’) subsidiarity organizing ways implementing Sections define features call ‘welfare solidarity’ Section delineates argumentation strategy relevance theories notion starting returns questions set out introduction issues remain unanswered; envoi firm precise 1. Welfare combine They redistribute better-off members society faced deprivation subject higher risks enable insure themselves hardship spread securely over lifetime Next investment care capacitating services: develop nation’s human capital education training; regulate provide health care; address so-called ‘new risks’ insurable traditional logic difficulties combination paid family life having frail relative single program serves function Public compulsory counterfactual private immediate redistributive impact same holds child many services Traditional mix up reason mixing related asymmetric information profiles: profiles differ lead adverse selection makes suboptimal impossible pooling increase aggregate welfare; allow Pareto-improvement every wins 10 Risk people low subsidize high claim leads stronger enhances economic efficiency increases graphical exposition illustrating Barr Economics (5th ed New York: Oxford 2012 111-112 Whether (i) gain (ii) depends assumptions contracts offer environment (including among others heterogeneity preferences risks); Chetty Finkelstein Insurance: Connecting Data Elsevier 2013 111–193 literature cited therein risks; individuals lack less well-off addition benefits categories minima maxima apply sometimes cement More generally overall performance resilience public legitimacy crucially depend complementarities positive impacts perspective separated; formulate cautiously prima facie seems conceivable separate agenda design specifically separately (monetary) selective takes part really disentangle return wrapping umbrella qualifier differentiates broader notions compensating (disadvantageous) circumstances held responsible ‘responsibility-cut’ boundary collective responsibility) explicit implicit contract transpires praxis describing; responsibility-cut judgment fortiori metaphysical ‘truths’ responsibility Also citizens’ motivations (e self-interest feelings community moral obligation… issue words want supporting (iii) judgements 11 thin ‘solidarity’ narrow praxes exist outside redistribution; slightly Definitions refer foundational motives integral (claiming motivation stability) conflates aspects problematic kept apart Gerhards H Lengfeld Z Ignácz Kley Priem Times Crisis Insights Thirteen-Country Survey London: Routledge p 19-20) deliberately entertains generic description (which institutionalized non-voluntary; short-cut institutions) causes (or institutions embodying praxis) institution it) satisfies demands feature depending distinct types Insurance future Pure compensated foreseen reasonably calculated group identical practical terms expected net present value cashed pure mechanism equal contribution ex ante expectation sufficiently long span no ‘net beneficiaries’ contributors’ money terms; gains everybody form ‘circumstances’ hold characteristics prime example progressive Suppose agree qua partly result factors talents were born educated parents family’s network … Progressive organizes contract: it’s rationale compensate disadvantages linked 12 participating seen ‘demanding’ Well-organised understood matter enlightened large majority insured: end ideal-type wins) indicated above order implement world heterogeneous Complying then Or precise: ‘circumstance’ expediency write ‘key rationale’ component Think (unforeseeable) affecting workers’ associated shocks reduces sectors activity Consider self- employed working sectors: sector hit severely downturn whilst device Throughout practices interpreted One assessment reader easily recognizes vocabulary grammar strand egalitarian philosophy coined ‘responsibility-sensitive ‘equality opportunity’:13 so conceived objectives Obviously vehicle exactly mean specification: flexible; crucial ‘responsibility cut’ foundation where located Because flexibility conceptual provided responsibility-sensitive useful heuristic social-policy makers who constantly have consequences choice; accept obviously further specification caveat second reference think covers dimensions But essence here flexible additional advantage: normally relationships extended used applies regulation corporate pre-empt downward spiral setting diversify buttress solve action problem word fall heading ‘European general better concepts thick moreover 13 G Cohen Dworkin provides practice notably compassion vulnerability personal 2. Three preliminary observations Before exploring observation concerns aims Well-organized serve automatic stabilizers smooth business cycle 15 Stability avoiding too instability) justice: stability right well-being extrapolate level: condition flourishing Rather interpreting nations insurance) solution under-provision ‘good’ If valuable per se overzealous hazard worry insured parties completely ‘beyond control’ risk-sharing mechanisms location informed achieve diversity fascinating Monetary argues participate She claims accommodated (only exist) “diversity fostered eliminated” necessarily require ‘ever closing meaning ever integration centralized Schelkle’s conflate she calls ‘diversity’: aspect degree correlation versus homogeneity profile We empirical interests interest-based added high: presupposes correlated reasons why typically works population small ‘diversity’ ‘weak relates fact includes cf footnote correlation’ indeed beneficial say ‘more beneficial’ interest seek inequality ‘low risk’ ‘high low- high-risk people: low-risk consequence ceteris paribus cross- subsidization pooled: still (without undermine possibility insurance); well off calculus allows aggregating high- different: deem therefore circumstance (even correlated) made writes foster cross-subsidization pooled enhance concern populations: perceived contributing (i behaviour people) illegitimate cause accepted ‘behaviour’ limiting incidence called nothing irrational inclinations (as everything defence conceptions legitimate yes presuppose including employment pursue below unification consensus 17 abstracts aversion complicates advantages sharing; Both covered mitigated; USA Chr Luigjes Fischer (re)insurance scheme: lessons US experience ACES Working 2019/06 third Peter Baldwin’s seminal garnering 18 Notwithstanding (manageable) historically technique allowed create ‘communities cross-cutting class-cleavages generating stable constituencies provision safety communities build notes 19 Can ‘community techniques? respect underscore insurance: certain At 20 Why interesting our purpose? large-scale between-country difficult: separating feasible notwithstanding resistance permanent 21 potential did invites Baldwin Politics Cambridge: 1990 am grateful reminded me difference norms euro area reform conference ‘Is Unjust’ Firenze 16-17 September D Stone Beyond Moral Hazard: Opportunity Connecticut Law (1) 12-46 identifies number mechanisms: well-being; changes problems etcetera correlate severe diverse GDP profile: independent prosperity characteristically comes shocks) contributions payouts proportional countries’ theoretical avoid Carnot example) policy-making circles idea considered major stumbling block experiment attitudes viz-à-viz shows exercised absence presence) activation training attached Burgoon Kuhn Nicoli Sacchi van der Duin Hegewald Sharing When Unemployment Hits: Design Influences Citizen (EURS) AISSR Report 2018 us self-standing 22 consider ‘pure insurance’ tendency aside merely ‘enlightened self-interest’ proper underrates improves board respects worst fundamentally 3. now assumes? context: statement formulated independently market freedom movement technical anti-discrimination legislation processes launched last years developed sustain Semester had huge Should goods capital? integration? qualified non-discriminatory access move?23 raise postulated fixed proceed justifications That premised well- well-organized entity distributed fairly within possibly demanding fulfilled page authors X Ragot Civiliser le Capitalisme Crise du libéralisme européen retour politique Fayard 23 operational latter sub-question citizens: today? Rennuy trilemma law: seeing wood trees Review vol 56 1549-1590 opinions diverge aware assumption underlying (and their) Freedom raises complex taken redistributed domestically according standard emigration size composition non-mobile affected start premise abstracto fundamental Germans travel freely France French Germany dissociated desire history aggressive nationalism sparked terrible bloodshed was granted joined 2004 after: Central Eastern settlement peace openness enlarged embody Yet accommodating well-functioning evident (think mass younger age balance pay-as-you-go pension growing regional divides emigration) treat satisfactorily confines Starting premises learn redistribution? published 2009 Ronzoni 24 Applied ‘take back collectively domains lost control individually due internationalization Arguing strengthen ‘real’ politically expedient: appeals exercise significant segment electorate actors attractive promises Global Order: Case Background Injustice Philosophy & Affairs 37 229-256 basis: real inquiry Prima variants section contra justifying unconvincing let alone justify doing today (albeit one) embrace radically (of thinking justice) argues? Parijs’s ambiguous Sangiovanni’s searching believe land entertain doubts approaches sections explore limitations justice’; comment briefly revisit understanding wrap concludes 4. According “(1) territory (2) justice-relevant socio-economic (3) interact free equals ”25 With adds “states enough power internal socioeconomic effective reasonable external ”26 explicitly “in interested outcomes: equally affluent ”27 institutions: tackle measures 25 Ibidem 247 26 248 27 Reiterating terminology Would stop there? Eurozone rehearse deployed effect: fragility incomplete EMU stabilizers; externalities prisoners’ dilemma particularly salient union; language type ‘functional’: requirement Justice Implementing justice; bad functionalist observation: advances basically postulates integrated financial markets kind ‘private output centralize management banks Typically unions pool complete partial centralization insurance; stabilization fragile textbook De Grauwe: cycles display amplitudes countries; amplitude ‘sudden stops’ liquidity outflows hitting experiencing recession destabilizing whole system 28 Grauwe ideal given obstacles step remedy union’s contingent consideration: protect summary Integration 12th edition 140-141 vulnerable cater mainly well-to-do 29 Whilst certainly twist ‘fragility’ take down road link cashing triggered stabilizer: conditional quality 30 (quasi-)pure converted quasi- homogenous keep safely minimal Do ‘functional’ insurance? answer tentative ‘yes’ mutual justified Let externality: stabilisation demand contributes (via trade links) externality dispose As good insufficient sub-optimal promoted supported adaptable exchange rates: wage costs deviations cost competitiveness remedied rate caught Historically efforts federal administration 1930s state-based Kizior Mourre Fiscal Euro-Area: simulation CEB N° 17/025 October Hits specific requirements comply classic 31 To full chain vaccination archetypal subsidized authorities prevent under-consumption Applying ‘compulsory vaccination’ mandate ‘vaccination programme’) cluster principles: generous benefits; sufficient coverage rates schemes; labour segmentation leaves poorly unemployment; proliferation relations unemployed individuals; constitution buffers times stabilisers implementation instability concern: logically (imagine process principles) guidelines translated model: natural move Vaccination An either permanently shock instantiate subsidisation model) combined relevant understand barely probably off; Simonetta Intereconomics Economic 52(3) 142-148 before emergence theoretically sound 32 actual importance doubted: leakage partners generate ‘positive effect’ diminish inclination Grauwe’s While (it mostly symmetric similar amplitude) straightforwardly justifies Empirically compelling 33 lesson ‘needs’ cure entails disagreement never black-or-white judgments matter: “a finite consistent choices” puts it;34 Heidenreich rightly warns “functionalist fallacies” 35 ‘function well’ always somewhere links cross-country sake ‘Eurozone robust non-exploitability equitable Robust foreseeably likely engender exploitation creditors impose debtors foreseeable threaten satisfaction provisions Cf government intervention pedagogical underscores banking 34 economy Oxford: final chapter Rokkanian–Mephistophelian remark 87 “necessitates state’s regime meets adequacy” And “[w]here guaranteed mandatory ”36 describes his “background justice” sketched govern purposes lot sympathy Viehoff’s conclusion: commonly agreed throughout differently (differently me) intrinsic leading ‘effective sovereignty’ ‘the provisions’ Recall Ronzoni’s Without agreement ‘minimum parcel unclear sovereign enter sure Viehoffs entirely convincing done share aspiration: weakness ‘member visible asks indication yields deemed allowing provision’ substantively ‘sovereign criteria sovereignty-based content frame provisions’) 36 Number 403 395 note objective Moreover adequacy grain mentioned motivated foremost self-interest: builds happenstance indicate argument’ contribute conditioned unemployed) pace pragmatic approach: attitude research ‘reciprocal’ gather 38 broadly reciprocity 39 presumption concur Swift opinion informs inter alea feasibility tell endorse debate; think? In: Bell de-Shalit Forms Justice: Critical Perspectives David Miller’s Lanham: Rowman Littlefield relation Baderin Busen Schramme U Luke Miller Who cares Revisiting Contemporary 5. solidarity? referred to) organized: “versions liberal republican intergovernmentalism obtains whenever realise non-domination amongst themselves” justificatory introducing (next 40 intergovernmentalists unconditional universal “relatively structure concerned” 41 underpins pre-empting conditionality realistic respectful autonomy comprehensive seeks disagreements 42 permeates income: best range pan- “saving extinction model” 43 clearly preferred option recent publication way: sturdy EU- wide floor” “buffer national-level sustainable” 44 quote preceding quotes tabled entities states; considering ‘augmented’ aspire 4) relate challenges as: maintenance decent wages threat 166 183 168 231 Just 47(1) migration discussed elsewhere 45 nutshell suffer flaw: principal justice-related diminished capabilities adequately ensuring functioning efficient remedies depart defining pertaining Eurozone’s admit comparatively inefficient? stabilizer constitute replacement kicks lose job transfer household stabilization: steady stream loss created one’s 46 Therefore main precisely macro-economic advocacy overlook: stand average operate stabilize 47 contends “does simple indirectly regimes: after reserve price cheap labour” 48 Apart envisaged disputable: Union: conundrum ACCESS EUROPE 2017/02 OECD –policy report Future Work (OECD 2019) 314: stabilizer” “spending during upswing” Vanderborght: opt VAT scale elaboration 21-22 182 relationship ‘reservation wage’ complicated analysis reservation lowest worker willing entitled determinant earning simplified representation discarding variables influencing behavior weekly he decision reduction clear-cut presentation ‘income supply worker: worker’s change turn pressure obtain forces ‘floor’ universally accessible month paying (sticking problem); ask pay extra (for offer) fraction ‘no work’ income’ bottom ‘No refuses (such acceptance jobs he/she like) forfeits tough ado floor universality differential floors wages) salary earned effort 49 believes readiness workers less-developed badly source dumping 50 uniform detailed 23-25 175 happening needed Job nuanced work- lousy Decent country-specific: productivity foregoing nature Given probability 51 actions are: generalize 52 defenders claim: strengthens bargaining creating exit employment; incentives means-tested significantly lower current incentive Martinelli micro-simulation UK data show simultaneously: radical simplification increase; affordability 53 confronted (through simplification) trade-offs micro-simulations illustrates: (poor) payments efficiently targeted affordability/adequacy trade-off Worse someone propose substitute regimes Viehoff) posting (Maximum Convergence 182) L Trilemma: Affordability Adequacy Advantages Radically Simplified non-poor inefficiently targeted) break 54 Space forbids backdrop follows suppose concede inefficient concern; could comparable advantage solutions ‘not intrusive’ models?55 Take modest 200 ca 8% capita amount adjusted purchasing parities Belgium amounts roughly 7% capita; Bulgaria 16% implemented Belgians send 1% abroad install Bulgarians integrate considerable weighs 29% Belgian GDP) taxes figure hypothesis maximal negative Martinelli’s acute introduced richer equivalent (total spending currently 17% Bulgaria’s twice abolish replace K O’Neill comparison distributional effects modes EU28 Euromod Series 14/19 July 55 Dennuit He stresses merit giving substance strongly character synthesis Denuit Le Revenu Universel européen: une nouvelle voie pour l’Europe sociale Coman Fromont Weyembergh (dir Les solidarités européennes Entre enjeux tensions reconfiguration Bruylant 227- 258 developing indebted EUI Conference Unjust?’ drastically reduce levies choose intermediate extremes assume countries: Simultaneously remains fabric strikes By cash Bulgarian total represents departure country’s trajectory superior besetting (superior arsenal policies) Empirical belief: ‘traditional’ edifice subsidy inferior 6. Fairness distributing cooperation trespasses boundaries while “not outcomes” affluent” stated (domestic) OMC around uninterested outcomes driven minimization Third follow her militates interferes exercising ‘sovereignty territory’ odds decisive justice’: advocate (true) gone ‘demoicracy’ writes: “[…] theorists usually refrain parachuted Platonic ideas almost critically employing ” Her demoicracy “works paradigm” founding fathers put war mobility problem-solving capacities one-by-one Transnational forms cross-national structural funds movement) 58 centre distribution integration” 59 frames Dworkinian “what behind (thin) ‘veil ignorance’ position” 60 find construction satisfactory characterizing challenge objections belonging jurisprudence Court (ECJ) sustainability law ECJ’s jurisprudence61 ‘services interest’ mentions extensive public-private partnerships add context-dependence demoicracy: Really way?” 16(2) 210-234; 215 216 Principles Sketch Workshop April wording Debating Raison d’Être: Relation Legitimacy 57(1) 13-27; ‘model 3’ 4’ sets 22-23 infer rejects favour d’Être Legal 230 61 226-227 CJE Laval solely local 62 considers ‘risks’ “neither avoidable foreseeable” 63 ‘in cases’ product ‘mere luck’ cope unforeseeable exogenous events largely leans heavily determinist ECJ one-dimensional promotion liberalization importantly leave little leeway unable influential defended brilliantly Fritz Scharpf presents overwhelming de facto uncontrollable deliberation evidence reverses Court’s Recent confirms politics joint Scharpf’s 64 cooperative ‘insurance’ exogenously operating unpredictable Court; democratic polity dominated continuous compatible cohesion route predictable imposed foreign companies post workers: applicable respected service providers reconsider respective nationwide responses Sweden Denmark reaffirm introduce action: agreements enforced correspond hard Posting Workers Swedish Danish rules game Blauberger ‘With Luxembourg mind remaking face jurisprudence’ 228 Sindbjerg Martinsen Ever Powerful Court? Constraints 2015 suggests; Scharpfian Even grant logics ‘unforeseeable sign initial account: ‘damage’ hypothetical wants establish encompassing potentially ‘vulnerable’ liberalizing architecture deliver classified ‘ambition’ ‘preference’ path-dependent short-term deems identify 65 adamant this: “Equality places special emphasis people’s supposes absurdly causally culture chosen convictions ambitions tastes influence aspires morality citizen’s ethical criticism self-criticism ”66 Extrapolating say: reflect ‘unfortunate historic choices’ relegated circumstances: agency embodied nuance: developments; path-dependency past changing course time- consuming costly 67 assigning explains ‘cravings’ Dworkin’s 66 Sovereign Virtue Revisited Ethics 107 ‘solidarity reform’ ‘Budgetary Instrument Competitiveness area’ reform’: reforms decisions: obsession ‘moral responsibility’ scheme; hazard: try minimize eliminated decide accommodate ‘ambitions’ paradigm fits uneasily 100% guarantee Stretching metaphor bit prevention precluding damage unforeseen real-world developments cyclical shifts consumer technologies) industrial specialization sub-regional agglomeration explained shocks: Contra appropriate ‘choosing’ correctly free-floating exercise: constrained Formulating supposed base constraints summarized follows: inform ought unanswered: up? broaches referring ‘public goods’ creation like required ‘reactive’ theory criticizes “two-step methodology” “can criticize unbalanced (some facing co-operation not) deal balanced ”68 7. cosmopolitanism EU? gives resolutely affirmative question: “[t]he club ”69 ‘is do’ clear: combines collapse movement: “sturdy EU-wide (preferably income) (background 5; goal achieving “demoted toolbox” logical 70 elsewhere: 71 68 Duties Kantian Framework 69 Distributive E Goodin Pettit Pogge Companion Blackwell Volume 2007 652 Normative C Barnard Geert Baere 40-43 envisage ultimate richest lesser increase) living sacrifice maximizes improvement realized poorest countries? cosmopolitans tragic assured grounds avoided problem? satisfied inhabitants fulfil considerably mitigates said dilemma?72 ‘instrumental view’ accepting validity cosmopolitan Banai Kollar equality opportunity permissible self-determination instrumentally 73 ‘logical priority’ accommodation compatibility conviction solidarities cherished tested lab room Accommodating connect original inspiration (who desirable objectives) interpretation cosmopolitanism’ framed disadvantaged achieved confine 72 implying ‘maximin’ rule worst-off fulfillment Brock Cosmopolitan Account Reading bedtime stories compatriots: Reconciling 07/2019 367- 386 pathway Cutting warrant space integrating jeopardizing sobering 5) emerges simulations aimed ‘optimal tax’ optimal median fare tax: unfeasible 74 cherishes intrinsically disparate Are pathways ideal? actively promotes instructs participation EMIN EAPN)75 effectively delivers gradually ‘sturdy floor’ (but two- pronged thought: instructing reasoning EU-specific state; 76 Seelkopf Yang Nos 1-2 145-161 75 fn (2019) Speak Mobile Non-Mobile Bauböck (eds) IMISCOE Springer Cham (first online 2018) 211-217 imperative complemented acknowledge draws cut loose origin Emphasizing climate proposes) confined change: alone: regions Steady 77 Wrapping support: mixture (with participant 8. Envoi: focused hinging 78 deliberate: day run limited; Blanchet Chancel Gethin Unequal Europe? Evidence Distributional National Accounts 1980-2017 WID Although occurred frequently documents declarations rarely It’s definitely larger paper; term solidarities’; analyses solidarities’ study distinguish territorial refugee (setting compensation invested refugees) attain satisfy cosmopolitanism; 79 respect: dissociate ‘disentangle’) Interstate systematically redistributes Does disentangled level? accompanied reconnected 80 recall necessitates Between (pace coping crises etc (between-country) using ‘redistribution’ Rinaldi inequalities Vision Summit Consortium ): Redesigning Ways forward Gütersloh 38-77 Hemerijck uses foundations retain Functional purchase: ‘needs unanswered distinguished ‘guidance’) Another ‘soft guidance’ ‘harder instructions’ ‘efficiency’ (what ‘experimental’ instructions?) ‘citizenship’ (are rights; rights?) explored straightforward “freestanding justification” bears territorially collectivity survive prosper diffuse capable motivating compliance “came legitimation nurturing effectiveness fairness ”81 ‘political good’ 82 81 Crafting Road Map Delivery Missing Necessary ‘Political Good’ 47-67 governance perceptible ‘guarantor rights’ strike

Preferences for European unemployment insurance: a question of economic ideology or EU support?

Geplaatst op 4 februari 2020 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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Journal of European Public Policy ISSN: 1350-1763 (Print) 1466-4429 (Online) homepage: https://www tandfonline com/loi/rjpp20 Preferences for unemployment insurance: a question economic ideology or EU support? Theresa Kuhn Francesco Nicoli & Frank Vandenbroucke To cite this article: (2020) 27:2 208-226 DOI: 10 1080/13501763 2019 1701529 link to https://doi org/10 © 2020 The Author(s) Published by Informa UK Limited trading as Taylor Francis Group View supplementary material online: 30 Jan Submit your article journal Article views: 146 related articles Crossmark data Full Terms Conditions access and use can be found at com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=rjpp20 JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY VOL 27 NO 2 208–226 Nicolib Vandenbrouckec aDepartment Political Science University Amsterdam Netherlands; bDepartment Governance Management Gent Belgium; cAmsterdam Institute Social Research (AISSR) Netherlands KEYWORDS insurance; social policy; left-right orientations; support integration; solidarity; conjoint analysis Introduction In the aftermath euro crisis policy makers started discuss creation solidarity mechanisms level rationale is twofold: ﬁrst these would ease adjustment in Economic Monetary Union (EMU) second they ensure pro- tection citizens crisis-struck countries Although governments remain divided idea that EMU needs an automatic mechanism risk sharing CONTACT kuhn@uva nl Supplemental accessed This Open Access distributed under terms Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDer- ivatives License (http://creativecommons org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4 0/) which permits non-commercial re-use distri- bution reproduction any medium provided original work properly cited not altered transformed built upon way absorb shocks has been discussed both Commission (2017a 2017b) Council (Van Rompuy 2012) also increased political salience inte- gration public opinion become increasingly relevant factor legitimizing further integration (Hooghe Marks 2018) Hence it key understand what make plans establish insurance (EUI) how diﬀerent design features contribute such policies paper focuses on individuals’ attitudes towards aﬀect preferences alternative proposals EUI Exist- ing research yields mixed results showing (Kleider Stoeckel (Bechtel et al 2014; Kleider 2018; play impor- tant role structuring cross-border We argue European-level initiatives underlying notions cannot reduced single one-dimensional concept ‘social Europe’ ‘European solidarity’ entails (Baute Gallego Marx 2017) For instance includes various dimensions generosity conditionality scheme citizen likely depends expect inﬂuence impact ways show some are ‘domestic’ since mainly resonate with domestic debates hence relate more directly respondents whereas over other admin- istration ‘cross-border’ referring relation- ships between reﬂect citizens’ orientations conducted survey experiment involving 19 500 across 13 ask choose randomly assigned pairs packages varying six dimensions: (1) their (the minimum beneﬁts secured support); (2) whether there conditions participating providing education training unemployed; (3) involves permanent between-country redistribu- tion; (4) taxation respondent’s country; (5) administered national governments; (6) attached individual unemployed aim important existing posals study diﬀerences consider generos- ity predominantly well-known contrast we redistribution administration refer relationships ﬁnd only about 3% reject all forms unem- ployment while 6% lend unconditional general schemes fea- tures background characteristics Supporting our hypotheses dimension substantially traction depending point extent same direction but less straightforward have individual’s except apply programmes provide latter observation may explained fact left- right cleavage does out edu- cation plays gener- osity distinction clear-cut regard argued repeatedly next Banking Capital Market ﬁscal stabilizers (Franchino Segatti 2019) One option achieve re- beneﬁt euro-zone (European 2017a organization re-insurance was rehearsed successive oﬃcial reports subject matter academic (summarized focus happenstance Unemployment supports purchasing power recession therefore stabilizer par excellence Historically crucial building block development welfare states often established moments major (Rehm 2016) It unsurprising Great Recession triggered debate EMU-wide today’s assigning realm remains politically uphill battle Given resistance against ideas Sensitive issues concern among others member degree might emerge These dealt emphasis questions diﬀerentiates from studies EU-wide test predispositions share resources borders circumstances need relatively broad results: considerable (Ferrera Pellegata 2017; Gerhards come nuanced conclusions (Lahusen Grasso heavily domain review (Genschel Hemerijck empha- sizes self-interest notably individuals net beneﬁci- aries contributors given employment status (Naumann proﬁle income justice perceptions egalitarianism ‘deservingness’ Oorschot combine con- siderations scale measures respondents’ position control currently employed context evolving ideological realignment experienced western societies Teney 2014) examine speciﬁc aﬀects varies people’s On one hand ‘old’ left still determinant interacting independently (Alesina La Ferarra 2005) actual While positioning partially endogenous shown possible dis- entangle two eﬀects (Margalit 2013) closely aligned ideology: beyond evaluations diﬀer views fairness equality state regulating market beliefs (Jaeger 2006) international (2018: 1) ‘voters’ fuller understanding conﬂict transfers’ prospect complicates things because touches ‘boundaries (Kuhn Kamm 2019): traditionally bound nation people disagree immigrants living abroad should (Pardos-Prado 2020) literature chauvinism shows many generally supportive time seek exclude its (Mewes Mau (2019) Spain do structure linked emerging divide opening closing globalization Zürn de Wilde Empirical expectations identity cosmopolitan atti- tudes signiﬁcantly willingness bailout turn Franchino experiments Italy union conﬂicting multidimensional nature concepts multidimen- sionality salient case complex labour especially those multilevel settings multidimensionality rather than assessing Studies bailouts (Gallego sensitive changes along vary Most consequences pursued within potential (it sets ﬂoor beneﬁts) supranational deﬁnes overall volume generated scheme) Or take another example comply legitimacy ‘insurance contract’ Notwithstanding complexity partition into ‘(mainly) domestic’ cross-border’ (Table sider dimen- sions ‘Domestic’ imply understood means own country attitude (expected be) Table 1 Dimensions levels Levels Characterization Expectation Generosity 40% Domestic 60% 70% Country-level No Education dimension* long-term Cross-border Long-term rich too poor Taxation increase 0 5% everyone 1% governance National Individual Accept job once week * bestowed community indi- vidual equally constitutes think intrinsic value (its beneﬁcial eﬀect) qua per se A if tude relations Admittedly always clear-cut; indicate respect activation arguably classiﬁed provides overview characterization groups interact diﬀerently speak plausible pro-Euro- pean eurosceptics moreover reasonable greater H.1.1. Citizens’ (between-country tion administration) strongly tie long-standing conﬂicts econ- omic inﬂuenced Individuals left-wing will redistributive character Similarly right-wing prefer generous conditional H.1.2. positions (generosity taxation) orientation embedded online states: Austria Belgium Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Ireland Poland models past performance geographical location zone membership Fieldwork company IPSOS took place October November 2018 Conjoint used analyse multidi- mensional 2019; Hobolt Rodon asked proﬁles representing Each series values Our introduced short information ensuring sustainable facing crises (appendix Figure itself 6 large ongoing (Vandenbroucke match conceivable variations allow analy- sis fundamental respondent evaluates three indicating rating each proposal individually evaluate total Both selection (i e combination dimensions) order completely randomized concerns percentage last wage ployed (or ‘replacement rate’) insured (40% 70%) captures include lower replacement rate framing clarify able higher so wish expenses words creates common country-level i must fulﬁl receive funding simple investment structured (‘no conditions’ ‘education training’) third cerns individual-level ditionality focusing job-search eﬀort levels: ‘no ‘accept suitable oﬀer lose beneﬁt’ ‘apply least accept fourth refers involve no beneﬁciaries Three included (‘insurance option’) long run: capped contribution (‘tolerant paid necessary Finally (‘redis- tributive run (on purpose) ﬁfth scheme: capture administrations body implement possible: impact’; ‘taxes income’ rich’ random sample drawn Quotas age gender regional distribution ﬁnal follows population 2% discrepancy demographic category most deviating 4% Surveys were translated main languages restrict who passed attention check did give set inconsistent answer patterns exper- iment 3 analytical 93 612 observations Operationalization Dependent variables dependent (DVs): binary package choice ordered score individ- uals estimates stable model- ling robustness checks alter composition (including inattentive individuals) vari- (package score) esti- mation methods (OLS Logit Multilevel Mixed Eﬀects) embedding model (using choice-pairings levels) Appendix 5e B1 (Full Interaction Model) 4 Independent measure construct composite indicator including elements divide: gov- ernment responsibility business regulation standardized items just enough together (Cronbach alpha 53) 3b wording indicators using 5 elements: identiﬁcation importance well-being Europeans trust leaders quite well 77) statistics indicator’s Control account (standardized 9 ISCED-11 categories) household dummy variable being dummies speciﬁcations variability Results Split-sample approach 4a assessment imental dimensions; however detailed scope Instead split- ting subsamples cluster according look split samples explore causal eﬀect (Leeper respon- dents opposite gauge Europe creating four Since signiﬁcant left/right whose larger standard deviation above/ below mean 7 Testing split-sample steps step estimate subsample All (models 1–4 2) OLS estimator variable; robust errors clustered 8 Model respectively high low scores Thus obtain coeﬃcients estimated (left-wing respondents) coeﬃcient equal 347 ceteris paribus increases when shifts (respondents favour redistribution) 082 substantial diﬀerence variation examined exam- ined 2: clearly left/ sensitivity; cal- culating absolute coeﬃcients; shift 1–2 265 calculation 3–4 based reveals inter- esting (pro-European (eurosceptics) 05: very systematically compare sensitivity measured clustering popu- lation above (0 265) much 05) Put diﬀer- ently Sensitivity tested via Main Hypothesis testing pro-European anti-European C: abs D Coeﬃcients omitted R2 08 07 06 05 N 968 11 724 14 364 Notes: Figures individual-robust SEs parenthesis p < 1; **p 05; ***p 01 Models columns models; grey shade: hypothesis conﬁrmed; rejected conﬁrms presents seventh column indicates ernance shade supported ﬁgures linear condition basis pro/anti-European With turns made (for H1 holds) everybody: (as compared change) interaction marginal 3) full-interaction actions EU-orien- tations allows us intensity polarization Further- full assess evolve simultaneously; reach splitting Again consistent number 6; details see footnote action panels reproduce predicted scales (from −3 – wing anti-EU) (left pro-EU) align result analysis; relative size average equivalent additional insight (panels As place- ment approaches extreme 3: (scale) int eraction (left- scale) (EU Left-right polity 036 (1 70)* 099 (5 22)*** n/a (base level) 217 163 014 (23 72)*** (10 78)*** 06) 277 261 020 (28 69)*** (16 59)*** 4) 155 002 037 Pure (20 97)*** 18) (3 45)*** From 019 (2 11)** 024 64)*** 045 10)*** 080 51)*** 059 (4 49)*** 069 31)*** −0 136 (15 20)*** 067 032 23)** 026 97)** 006 (7 52)*** 47)*** 43) 058 46) 148 (12 65)*** 168 96)*** 292 (18 02)*** 079 Low 144 (14 26)*** 054 336 8)*** 44)*** Logged 039 93)*** Currently 28)** Age 010 66)* Female 11) Constant 273 (30 78270 individual- T-statistics par- entheses *p First country-ﬁxed However characterized holds prefer- ences ‘tolerant’ cross-country Marginal black light When constrained pro-Eur- opeans supporting anti- opposing suggests concerning genuine activate sensibilities polarize yet new sum conﬁrm exceptions: EU; Conclusion poorly under- stood An ﬁlls lacuna exploring dents’ designs start particular constructs Therefore gather conforms expected them personally better deploy modelling surveyed expressing dom- estic search eﬀort; presence (ranging right) associated associ- ated although originally envisaged determining support; moderates versus expectation rejected: turned moderated instead sources favouring tend (Hakhverdian country- Second world view motivates aspect speaks –in posi- tive sense Either far placement insuﬃcient evidence slightly slope steeper statistically highest yielded scales: pro-Europeans anti-Europeans oppose ﬁnding resonates recent ﬁnds high-income weak negative assess- issue voting candidate’s Brexit voters Some limitations invite caution interpreting maintain simplicity avoid cognitive biases here sub-sample scheme; (not experiment) even variance limited (r-square rarely 8%) suggesting phenomena (possibly macro-level) lacking small (13) limits regard: future dataset macro-level immerged post-stratiﬁcation weights correct minor deviations targeted quotas practice introduction tailored perceived weaker unlikely without part ‘grand bargain’ tighter strengthened macro- coordination negotiating exchanges impossible net-contributor underestimated net-recipient could over-estimated notwithstanding coexist ideologies Notes 1. following exception: presented fol- lowing 2. Belgian French Dutch; Spanish region Catalonia oﬀered Catalan; Estonians Estonian Russian 3. 12% gave B whilst expresses B) alternatives; 4. baseline (model Score exclud- controls 5a respondents; 5b excludes 5c fear becoming preference migration servative reproduced Choice 5d 5f) embeddings (5g 5h) Annex available request 5. Household log middle decile belongs (income after tax compulsory deductions sources) 6. 4b analyses They largely 7. cases 8. 4c report logit (also ual-variable appendix 4b) Acknowledgements thank Brian Burgoon Sara Sergi Pardos Toni participants workshop ‘Domestic contestation Union’ London School Econ- omics December anonymous reviewers helpful comments Sven Hegewald David van der Duin excellent assistance usual disclaimers Disclosure statement interest reported authors Funding KU Leuven (Belgium) Istituto Nazionale l’Ana- lisi delle Politiche Pubbliche (INAPP Italy) acknowledges Dutch (grant nr 451-13-029) Associate Professor science Assistant Ghent aﬃliated ORCID http://orcid org/0000-0001-8784-1731 References Alesina Ferrara E (2005) ‘Preferences land oppor- tunities’ Economics 89(5-6): 897–931 Baute S Meuleman Abts K Swyngedouw M (2018) ‘Measuring Europe: approach’ Indicators 137(1): 353–378 Bechtel Hainmueller J Margalit Y (2014) redistribution: eurozone bailouts’ American 58(4): 835–856 (2017a) ‘Reﬂection deepening monetary union’ COM(2017) 291 31 May Brussels: avail- https://ec europa eu/commission/sites/beta-political/ﬁles/reﬂection-paper- emu_en pdf (accessed July (2017b) ‘Communication Parliament Central Bank New budgetary instruments Euro area framework’ COM (2017) 8222 Final eu/info/sites/info/ﬁles/economy-ﬁnance/com_822_0 Ferrera ‘Can reconciled? 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Micro- and macro-drivers of child deprivation in 31 European countries

Geplaatst op 4 februari 2020 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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Micro- and macro-drivers of child deprivation in 31 European countries ANNE-CATHERINE GUIO ERIC MARLIER FRANK VANDENBROUCKE AND PIM VERBUNT 2020 edition S TAT IS T I C AL W O R K N G PA P E Micro-and Manuscript completed December 2019 The Commission is not liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse this publication Luxembourg: Publications Office Union © Reuse authorised provided source acknowledged policy documents regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330 14 12 2011 p 39) Copyright cover photo: Shutterstock/ zurijeta For use or reproduction photos other material that under EU copyright permission must be sought directly holders more information please consult: https://ec europa eu/eurostat/about/policies/copyright Theme: Population social conditions Collection: Statistical working papers views set out are those authors do necessarily reflect official opinion Neither institutions bodies nor person acting on their behalf may held responsible which made contained therein PDF ISBN 978-92-76-10529-9 ISSN 2315-0807 doi: 10 2785/831285 KS-TC-20-003-EN-N Abstract This paper analyses using scale officially adopted March 2018 to measure child-specific at level It combines single multilevel models get a full picture drivers With regard within-country differences our results confirm combined impact variables related “longer-term command over resources” indicating “household needs” However also show relationship these with differs between In richest explanatory power household needs largest whereas most deprived resource generally greater between-country specification model careful consideration We argue should include income micro if aim fully gauge households’ then assesses how much country-level features reflected individual characteristics contribute explaining across find public spending in-kind benefits significant respect Public cash transfers plays only limited role when incomes included; they play excluded does diminish importance fighting but it qualifies conclusions have analysed without controlling Finally we GDP per capita even included self-evident: shows proxy important contextual Authors: Anne-Catherine Guio Eric Marlier (1) Frank Vandenbroucke(2) Pim Verbunt (3) Luxembourg Institute Socio-Economic Research (LISER Luxembourg); (2) Vandenbroucke University Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leuven (Belgium) Table contents 3 1. Introduction() 5 2. A robust 7 3. General overview 4. macro-level determinants 17 4.1. Micro-level 4 2 Combining micro- 20 5. estimation strategy 28 6. Results 30 6.1 National 6.2 36 6.2.1. M1-M2: Empty household-level 6.2.2. M3-M12: Assessing institutional 37 6.2.3. M13-M22: 6.2.4. M23-M26: Sensitivity disposable concepts 39 6 Cross-level interactions 7. Conclusions 48 References 50 Annexes 53 1 Introduction(1) Fighting poverty investing children’s well-being has featured agenda (EU) many years February 2013 new step forward was taken published Recommendation “Investing children: breaking cycle disadvantage” (European 2013) subsequently Council Ministers An element calls Member States “(reinforce) statistical capacity where needed feasible particularly concerning deprivation” best way provide accurate actual living children making assumptions about sharing resources within develop child- specific indicators – i e based situation differ parents 2009 wave Statistics Income Living Conditions (EU-SILC) an ad hoc module aimed collecting such first in- depth analysis data carried et al (2012) optimal items identified index proposed These were again 2014 EU-SILC allowing additional (2018) final list consists covering both aspects can aggregated monitor comparative whole (28 as well Iceland Serbia Switzerland (following 2019) doing so seeks obtain better understanding joint micro-determinants (household’s labour market attachment composition costs [due housing bad health…] etc ) types Single make possible identify national risk factors offer variations Specifically allow analysing decomposing country fit measures setting advantage cross-national 31-country pooled dataset Both type Hence remain understand each (as coefficients definition allowed vary wish thank Brian Nolan Jonathan Bradshaw Elena Bárcena-Martín Bertrand Maître Kenneth Nelson Geranda Notten valuable discussions All errors strictly authors’ work been supported third Network (Net-SILC3) funded Eurostat bears no responsibility solely Email address correspondence: anne-catherine guio@liser lu Norway could due large amount missing Introduction specificities micro-drivers captured); complemented (that than populations) So illustrates strength comprehensive levers mobilised fight EU(3) contribution literature second main one view replicates confronts broad spectrum (sometimes diverging) reported suggests reasons why measured (do not) described inclusion (national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) justified fact generous welfare systems prosperous economies lead lower levels once micro-level (household-level) capture received reason would still discussed priori expect explain after relevant crucial question therefore variable whose already into account expected contrarily previous because proxies elements To disentangle replicate number presented variety macro-variables linked (generosity in-cash pro-family adequacy assistance pro- poorness transfers) different countries’ standards added value explicitly certain parents’ education migrant status (quasi-)joblessness next household’s current Often expectation “social stratification” granted further argument fourth Shapley decompositions establish relative independent & Usually econometric used relations goes provides covered organised follows Section defines illustrative reviews macro- presents detail concludes yet another advantage: allows agreed theory driven From theoretical point largely relies Townsend’s concept deprivation: “Poverty defined objectively applied consistently terms […] Individuals families groups population said lack diet participate activities amenities customary least widely encouraged approved societies belong Their seriously below commanded average family effect ordinary patterns customs ” (Townsend 1979 31) analytical framework select draws extensively 1999 Poverty Social Exclusion (PSE) Survey indicator construction methodology (Gordon 2000; Pantazis 2006) ensure item selection examined four aspects: suitability order check citizens sub-groups State) consider them necessary “acceptable” standard live “Suitability” understood face validity amongst exhibits statistically ratios known correlated reliability assess internal consistency closely group Classical Test Theory Item Response Hierarchical Omega Analysis additivity test someone score “2” suffering severe “1” indicator’s components add up successfully passed tests thus considered suitable valid reliable additive candidates being measurement “children” “household” Children items: Some (not second-hand) clothes Two pairs properly fitting shoes Fresh fruit vegetables daily Meat chicken fish vegetarian equivalent Books home age Outdoor leisure equipment Indoor games 8. Regular 9. Celebrations special occasions 10. Invitation friends eat time 11. Participation school trips events 12. Holiday Household 13. Replace worn-out furniture 14. Arrears 15. Access Internet 16. Home adequately warm 17. car private keep mind some collection processing First relating collected themselves adult answering questionnaire” (household respondent) Secondly according survey protocol followed given assumed all belonging course preferable know separately; study households (e g girls likely boys suffer same teenagers younger children?) quite delicate lengthen significantly EU- SILC questionnaire Thirdly “children’s items” relates aged 15 (i bracket) Therefore covers Yet attending (school trips) Besides above 17-item includes As emphasised (2012 2018) impacting immediate indirect Indeed qualitative studies shown financial strain often ask things need try protect stress feelings guilt (Ridge 2002 2011) Using propose aggregate unweighted sum ranging 0 (no lacked) (all (see 2012 110 opt rather weighted deprivations) very high Cronbach’s alpha 70 (the usual minimal threshold) 90 seven EU-28 worth highlighting enforced retained three answer categories proposed: child(ren)/ child(ren)’s (have) item; (do) (they) cannot afford it; Only lacking affordability (and choice reasons) Those “other reasons” treated together who There however questions raised notion (McKnight 2013; McKay 2004) modality encompass range situations: people want/need prevented having caring responsibilities vehicle/ transport feeling unwelcome case adaptive preferences shame admit unaffordable (Guio 34) That investigated replying They (rather simple lack) makes control cultures parental practices discriminate worse-off better-off ensures higher sets threshold rest will analyse (ranging 17) proportion intensity rate(4) (4) level: lacked here looks incidence compared heat map highlights showing several Bulgaria Romania contrary low (Nordic Austria Netherlands Luxembourg) there mixed depending disadvantages advantages others Figure distribution (aged years) Around 50% One lacks two 1: Distribution non-EU (pooled data) (%) Source: cross-sectional computation At ranges 4% Sweden 71% “Heat map” providing Child Fruit Shoes Proteins Celebration Clothes School Friends Car Leisure Arrear Holidays Furniture 8 9 Finland 16 11 24 Denmark Switzerlan Netherland 25 Luxembou Slovenia Spain 13 34 46 Germany Malta 21 22 29 Cyprus 41 40 60 Belgium 19 18 Italy 38 Ireland France Portugal 23 57 Czech Rep 47 Poland 26 United king 35 33 Croatia 32 Greece 54 Estonia 27 Lithuania 61 Slovakia 45 Latvia 42 55 67 Hungary 51 52 43 49 72 Note: Countries ranked 2010 part Europe Heads State Government upon target: lift million “risk exclusion” target basis indicators: at-risk-of rate equivalised 60% median (5) line varies country) entire (MD) following nine (capacity) avoid arrears rent mortgage utility bills unexpected expenses meal meat every day week annual holiday away access (6) washing machine (7) TV (8) telephone (9)(6) opposed paper) (quasi-)joblessness) 20% ratio total months working-age (18-59) members worked theoretically 0-59 children) People “at poor and/or severely materially (quasi-)jobless version usefully constructed replacing considering If five clusters Figures 3) completes hierarchical cluster leads groups: • Cluster (around 70% countries) (32% 39% respectively) nevertheless among lowest (6%) highest (15%) net (disposable) calculated steps: a) monetary member itself (these capital inter-household taxes contributions paid deducted sum); b) size (net) divided “equivalent adults” so-called OECD-modified gives weight (1 subsequent 14); c) finally resulting figure attributed equally (adults referred “severe” MD contrast “standard” initially year before (threshold deprivations nine; see 2009) 2017 decided replace 2016) (items 1-6 plus inability furniture) (inability to: ones spend small money him/herself regular friends/family drink/meal month internet connection) Referred “Material rate” now portfolio progress towards protection objectives (on Bulgaria) characterised prevalence (between 47%) poverty: 13% (one rates EU) against around 25% (almost 30% Serbia) Among (two contains medium-to-high (22 28%): UK heterogeneous (there two-to-one Spain) (Ireland (21%) 9%) side side) Czechia constitute low-to-medium rate/intensity latter exception comparable performance share Nordic (Cluster 5) (except (25%)) clustering heterogeneity situations similar performances essential richness available complement context sections deepen through systematic investigation dependent introduced analyses: 2: Proportion (out non- 3: 4: (average items) existing (material) documented population) distinction drawn “micro-level” “macro-level” socio-economic deprivation(7) By look unemployment inequality state regime example Kenworthy Recently approaches jointly settings Kim 2010; Chzhen 2012; Whelan Israel Spannagel 2014; Visser Saltkjel Malmberg-Heimonen 2017; (2019) concomitant complementary estimating estimated (individual/household-level) country-specific hence variance Then compare effectiveness between- Country-level captured demographic socioeconomic influence Tárki stratification – stratum belongs relation probably complex reduced form empirical for: influences commands extensive review Perry Boarini Mira d’Ercole 2006 specify notwithstanding difficulty distinguish likelihood just 4): longer-term resources; health housing; Deprivation emerges confrontation become clear 1) grouped 2) (but fully) “resources” “needs” its holds instance consumption “proxy” models: support family/friends direct wealth Also highlight crude miss elements: what poor/deprived quality services? depends consume turn “command Although usually association far perfect imperfect link 2001; 2006; 2007; Berthoud Bryan 2011; Fusco explained difficulties measuring notably self-employed people) equal But importantly determined future ability borrow plausibly serve (in addition income) overcome short-term difficulties: educational attainment Borrowing economic jargon permanent liquidity constraints(8) Ceteris paribus (for characteristics) indeed correlate with: i) stronger position less vulnerability adverse shocks precarious employment); ii) educated richer implies bequests wealth; iii) easier constraints; iv) return human born outside correlates factors: vulnerable inherited difficult institutions(9) signal predictor risks hamper constraints Given availability able debt burden mentioned extent individual’s moot question; Brady (2017) recent explorations issue Here start joblessness (9) On de Neubourg evel six variables: yearly non-equivalised households(10) expressed purchasing (PPS)(11) 1000 logarithm linear forms regressions regression obtained enter separately below) parent (operationalised dummies: primary secondary education) medium (upper post-secondary non-tertiary (tertiary reference category) (jobless) equals adults 18- 59 excluding students) potential during past d) dummy whether EU(12) (migrant) e) (debt burden) payment debts hire purchases loans loan connected dwelling heavy f) presence (self-employment) take sub-population experience Needs increase maintain depend tenure 2004; 2019)(13) introduce costs): self-reported (bad health) reports (14) (rent) rents (free reduced) tariff owning own house (15) dummies including repayment (instalment interest) insurance service charges (sewage removal refuse maintenance repairs charges) (heavy light (light category socio-demographic composition: (10) summing deducting (11) Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) Standards (PPS) convert amounts currency artificial common equalises currencies (including currency) noted PPS tool price Reference budgets priced baskets goods services regions cities achieve sound alternative moment (12) (Iceland Switzerland) neither residence (13) Childcare (using childcare attendance) sample had cost ad-hoc 2016 appropriate becomes tested “limitation activity” “suffering chronic condition” alternatives separate renting free gave while insignificant 0-17 students 18-24) (number instead implicitly adjusting equivalence done calculation poverty) oldest 1-15 (age child) basket induces bias favour younger/older single-parent (single parent) perspective (it fewer possibilities employment pooling adult) fixed (housing represent (remember equivalise incomes) (They reconciling life part-time inactivity; inactivity activity dataset) summary statistics found Annex correlation consideration: research wants inappropriate summarises (child) macro typically capita; (2014) whilst raises questions: plausible certainly resources”; presumably literature) objective good leaving bound mix impacts say examining always wrong focuses might want exclude (16) feel uncomfortable discussion he agree conclusion kinds determine except capitamedian accounted prime macro-variable benefits: receipt result prima facie counterintuitive deserves interpretation discuss Literature /Macro- Determinants Sample Econometrics Main Findings Data: (2008) Unit analysis: Individual (below 65 age) Index: Standard Determinants: Micro (female lone two-parent unemployed migrant) (type-case long-term expenditure active (ALMP) non-means-tested benefit expenditure) normally substantial negatively associated After ALMP expenditures Looking effects cross-level author finds reduce individual-level (2009) person) Model: Multilevel Dependent variable: Basic comprises absence adequate heating (logarithm professional occupation (pre-primary gender marital immigrant tenure) Disposable head (GNDH) Gini) person’s basic proportions within- macro-economic contributed relatively little GNDH explanation Further GNDH: contingent society logistic Material (gender youngest activity) controlled Once variation disappears (ESS) Economic Confirmatory factor ordinal (0-6): ‘I manage income’ draw my savings expenses’ cut back holidays equipment’ (quartiles) job urbanization ethnicity) (unemployment changes percentage Macroeconomic circumstances Various crossed found: generosity affect deprivation-reducing (country-level interaction) Bárcena-Martin (2007) cross- sectional Linear frequency weights young old tertiary structure variables) (long-term S80/S20 (jointly) introduction country- reduces percent inequalities decrease (2008-2012) (low owner-occupier works sector (Minimum scheme rate) Total negative minimum Severe Bárcena-Martın urban area owner illness condition female (HRP) HRP HRP) (GDP long s80s20 functions) half specifications strong functions targeted intended appear effective reducing regressed Malmberg- Heimonen birth limiting longstanding self-defined level) (Social inverse Welfare disadvantaged assessing combination group-specific Extension (online appendix) mobilise (total in-kind) targeting families/children pro-poorness adequacy: operationalised expresses derived System integrated Protection (ESSPROS) database % GDP) (cash (in-kind sickness/healthcare disability family/children pension survivor elsewhere classified exclusion benefits(17) Alternatively (any family- benefits) micro-data transfer computed Lacking ESSPROS head) sums evaluate geared (family gross (18) remember cash-transfers coefficient straightforward above) aspect redistributive system degree universalism open debate Following Marx co-authors (2013) Diris distributed deciles pre- (pro-poorness bottom 50) (19)The (more 75%) going Kingdom Again require since descriptive indicates confirmed argues via expenditure-based approach Expenditure-data (17) seem pensions 2017) non-elderly individuals (mainly intergenerational prevalent) (EU-SILC micro-data) (19) pre-transfer (excluding pensions) 20) robustness business refer data(20)) taxation Furthermore looking treatment “household-type” approach): drawbacks cross-country 2014) Household-types simulate standardised averaging Whilst limitations especially representative types” various (Bárcena-Martín Still type” interesting schemes review) (adequacy schemes) focus type: married couple eligible assistance(21) OECD general practice capita) 100 (Serbia) 800 (Bulgaria) 74 500 (Luxembourg) (median Median 230 (Romania) essence value-added produced sectors economy subset Contrary last option captures Even though “(quasi-)jobless” indicator) International Labour (ILO) (ILO concept) population; (20) people/households (with figures (21) sensitivity Tests couples assistance) Altering investigate count suffered binary (3+ Our displays over-dispersion Over-dispersion occurs larger mean recommended binomial technique weakens highly restrictive assumption traditional Poisson Instead estimates random parameter takes unobserved estimate dispersion zero over-dispersed run give precise nested designs respondents (i) (j) useful unobservable Formally formula: ????????[???????????????????????? |�????????h???????????????? ????????cj ???????????????? � = ???????????????????????? ???????? log�???????????????????????? β0 + βℎ????????h???????????????? ℎ=1 ???????? β???????? ????????=1 ???????? ???????????????? eβ0 +∑???????? +∑???????? β????????????????cj+???????????????? ????????????????????????�???????????????????????? �???????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? ????????�???????????????????????? (i=1 N) j (j=1 … J) conditional overall intercept ????????ℎ???????????????? hth (h H) βℎ ???????????????????????? cth (c C) error term ∼N(0 ????????2 ???????? calculate pseudo R² employed McFadden define (which difference values empty apply (Shapley 1953) calculates exact R²-value method decompose goodness-of-fit (Deutsch Silber indicate interested ran reveals considerable column means household- strongly intensity(22) (Austria Sweden) Conversely typology suggested (high deprivation) (cluster 4) stressed: (they (Hungary) (Greece) (much) smaller (more) (income migration) 55% [“rent” variable]) 38% size) 7% clearly detailed results) (from 36% 37% Greece; household-related confirms independently (22) earlier (23) p>z 05 5% (24) rough “volatility” tend volatility immediately concede convincing evidence hypothesis: weakly (p=0 11) [M14] 15% (after strongest (27-37%) lesser (20-22%) (very) diverging contradict scarce positively majority De Graaf-Zijl (Table 10% 6% self-employment member(s) deprivations: negative; positive (0 partly surveys challenge discriminating personal assets self- close Migration Switzerland: 7-12% 3% Households (this explains analysed) (10-15%) appears countries: almost 43% fit: 27%) (12-18%) (26%) suffers problems Lithuania) (Fusco healthcare modules increases interpreted se thirds studied indirectly deprivation-item section relate intensity) 3+ significances logit commented mainly highlighted non-significant (self-employment households) stated models) right R²-measures Resources Other socio- demograhpics Education Quasi- Debt Migrant Housing Bad Rent 2% 8% 07 1% 22% 9% 14% 29% 09 16% Average “light burden” dropped decomposition did converge Reading note: (full) percentages brackets ranks respective 5: Relative “Resources” refers migration; “Needs” health; “Other socio-demographics” Negative socio-demographics Country Intercept Low Medium (Quasi-) jobless Self- Heavy Light Number Age -0 2934 0001*** 5582*** 3364*** 2649*** 5986*** 5497*** 0046 5538*** 7538*** 3504*** 7013*** 029 2258*** 0142 9403*** 7345*** 3395*** 1331** 1736*** 1375** 0922 7595*** 3546** 0801 0005 0041 1158 0244*** 5801** 0002*** 9064*** 5112*** 086 2469*** 3204*** 3518* 5299*** 6606*** 3321*** 3648*** 0811*** 1972*** 0107* -1 2799*** 5404*** 0504 1335 5449*** 1392*** 7624*** 6162*** 1928*** 4008** 9339*** 0626 2154 0253* 9912*** 9486*** 5119*** 6238*** 2738* 5777*** 1995** 2815*** 5561*** 5807*** 5677*** 0833** 3078*** 0049 382*** 5481*** 2768*** 5406*** 4163*** 419*** 1699** 9254*** 0666*** 237*** 0353 3684*** 0265*** 6408*** 339*** 1798*** 2373*** 3254*** 2902*** 9681*** 2807*** 5288*** 2791*** 0233 1112*** 0017 8189*** 3755*** 1781*** 1048*** 0939*** 0964*** 1776*** 9293*** 5203** 2981*** 1081*** 0472*** 1338** 0028 5108** 5756*** 3957*** 442*** 1505*** 448*** 3259*** 2697*** 1664 2251*** 24*** 0467*** 066 0076** 5168*** 6332*** 3905*** 2235*** 01 3781*** 3299*** 164*** 71*** 3098*** 344*** 089*** 2667*** 0096* -23 6173*** 9207*** 4176*** 4551*** 1635* 2218*** 1625** 0614*** 1233 3335*** 3527*** 163 0044 1116 6864*** 2191*** 2158*** 2077*** 4973*** 3809*** 6938*** 4688** 4857*** 3692*** 0746*** 0158 0035 0202 3697*** 1677*** 1899*** 034 2848*** 1525*** 2895*** 4985*** 3278*** 1542*** 0106 0135*** 1542 6017*** 2827*** 1481** 2177*** 2731*** 1007 3495*** 7091*** 1841*** 1223*** 1118*** 0906 0144*** 9646*** 8792*** 4643*** 0714 4225*** 2672*** 4799*** 7587*** 133*** 0943 1708** 13*** 1155 0042 7437*** 3623*** 1219 1286 3858* 6929*** 4037*** 5178*** 5754** 5629*** 6549*** 009 8042*** 0058 5097*** 0159*** 5985*** 0212 6102*** 1136*** 1384 0151*** 2331*** 1543*** 25*** 0404*** 2127*** 4359* 5236*** 1848** 3472*** 1432* 636*** 1987*** 0945*** 4071** 5662*** 1504** 1435*** 266*** 0034 8299*** 5395*** 2234*** 0587 0355 7384*** 5932*** 7179*** 0258*** 6247*** 7235*** 0492* 4331*** 0082 52*** 1523*** 5769*** 1478 4813*** 9784*** 2211*** 4519*** 668*** 3637*** 6205*** 066* 2845*** 0051 3773** 0793*** 6337*** 076 4437*** 3795*** 6914*** 9752*** 0262 2113*** 3569*** 1073*** 3239*** 0037 261* 5541*** 2571*** 1008** 4336*** 1884*** 1799*** 1159*** 5653*** 1639*** 183*** 0268 0312 0091** 1457*** 0003*** 5131*** 3385*** 1211* 0396 2779*** -15 2373 7842*** 3786*** 1684*** 0965 0486*** 3355*** 0059 1679*** 7046*** 3442*** 1563** 2937*** 437*** 2404*** 8831*** 8745*** 4594*** 1622*** 1164*** 1743** 0024 5961*** 8941*** 4741*** 552*** 2366*** 206*** 2629 02*** 0698*** 2067*** 1554*** 2993** 0071 4217*** 5983*** 2891*** 6315*** 1197* 5583*** 4719*** 5859*** 828*** 3424** 4078*** 0927*** 2259*** 0004 -2 6208*** 0472 4236*** 6224*** 3495* 3778*** 804*** 6201*** 1335*** 7127*** 8543*** 0747* 2699* 0226 9145*** 3394*** 1905*** 2885*** 0731 3892*** 0976** 0651*** 4919*** 4128*** 8403*** 0141 1425*** 0153*** 5677** 5673*** 2272*** 0616 0887 5411*** 2607* 067*** 326** 0468*** 2701*** 0149 0038 014 4812* 6203*** 2509*** 2514*** 3455*** 1104*** 0064 6683*** 1271 2625*** 1341*** 0394*** 141** 0165*** 8659*** 5984*** 3126*** 902*** 3948** 7305*** 55*** 7356*** 9975*** 3889* 926*** 1328*** 7218*** 0001 pool (M1 gradually (M2 Next series containing comparing strengths (M3-12 macroeconomic (M13-22 (M23-25 (M26 residuals Description M1 M2 M3-M12 M13-22 M23-M25 M26 Household-level (all) var (% iables: 70) exist reflects sign magnitude original (57+14=71%) Most income: 57% intercepts compositional costs) role: 19% Models ten purpose Several reveal determinant reduction expected: head/child In-kind respectively 35% (M5 M8) corresponding 23% provision freely (or driver necessities Aaberge conclude policy-wise important: devoted M9) M10) PPS) round pro-families’ (Models M19-20) minor (9% M11) Variables comparatively Measures attain negligible (16% M12) effectively easily explained: former absolute (M13-M22) [M15] [M18]) (M21) regroups kind [M13]) deprivation(23) Family cash) safety nets that: 21% 24% (PPS/head) 28% remains development global accounts Pro-poorness slightly prioritise co- unexplained (quasi- )joblessness aims accounting Why background protected countries? “hidden” gifts conjecture (though hypothesis examination) end distribution: functioning automatic stabilisers edifice volatility(24) words seems “permanent income” Another “qualitative” Richest (education “level development” partially data: insufficient societal cushioning M13-15 longer taking M15 [M26] (84 versus 83% M26) measure: (33% expense striking observation co-regressed omitted (results shown) nuance shaped pointed consensus mitigated affluence (Nelson examine introducing slopes(25) influenced slopes findings nuanced mitigate needs: generate slighter affluent migration interaction low-educated showed qualifications declines (25) slope adding covariance computational conducted none lose significancy change singe relationships slight imply significant) deprivation-increasing positive) (such one’s struggling needs/costs argued significance exceptions lies non-income (Annex M13) insignificance M23) M24) Model (of Coeff 03 00 Self-employment (Quasi-)joblessness 75 Constant Random Estimates Explained 71 91 66 observations 88901 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 04 Cash 08 78 80 81 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 44 02 Adequacy minimum-income 82 77 M13 M14 M16 M17 Unemployment 58 06 88 83 M18 M19 M20 M21 M22 92 99 86 M23 M24 M25 84 Interaction 003 00008 93 Quasi-joblessness 94 00002 (bottom 85 000 demonstrate (current status) (costs powerful predictors are: illustrate systematically schemes; it) predicting operates model) unrelated deprivation; logically don’t shapes (based capturing 27% (micro-) 11% come mind: between-households conceived “affordability” incomes; pursue crossed-effects construe resources”) (rate count) Langørgen Lindgren distributional In: Atkinson B (eds Monitoring pp 159-188 Bárcena‐Martín Lacomba Moro‐Egido Pérez‐Moreno Differences Review Wealth 60(4) 802-820 Blasquez M Budria Moro-Egido 15(4) 717-744 Barcena-Martin Blanco-Arana Perez-Moreno Transfers Countries: Pro-poor Targeting Pro-child Targeting? 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Fiscal 25(2) 201-223 McKelvey Zavoina (1975) “A variables” mathematical sociology 4(1): 103-120 McKnight ‘need’ CASE Annual Centre London Counteracting 22(2) 148-163 “The life” Britain Millennium Bristol Chapter 89-122 (2002) mismatch outcome Zealand 101–127 Ridge Childhood Exclusion: Child’s Perspective everyday childhood: exploring lives experiences low‐income 25(1) 73-84 Malmberg‐Heimonen Generosity Multi‐level Disadvantaged Groups Administration 51(7) 1287-1310 (1953) Value n-person Games Kuhn Tucker Contributions Annals Mathematical Studies Princeton 307–317 Snijders Bosker Analysis: Advanced Modeling (second edition) Sage Publishers Better monitoring instruments policies prepared Secretariat Inclusion Ministry Justice Budapest (1979) Penguin Hardmonsworth Explaining vere 1-42 Gesthuizen Scheepers 2007–2011 115(3) 1179-1203 Layte Understanding dynamic 20(4) 287-302 (2001) community panel sociological 17(4) 357-372 Comparing dynamics: Issues 4(3) 303-323 enlarged 83(2) 309-329 Stratification Mobility 30(4) 489-503 29(6) 1162-1174 Young (1985) “Monotonic solutions cooperative games” Game 14(2): 65-72 High Parent(s) self Renter (child (deprived (1000 69 63 56 96 76 62 68 79 98 95 73 64 89 97 87 (continued) Jobless educcation Self-employed meaning Correlation Pro- minimum- Logistic Estimate Pr>|t| *** ** -5 * -4 -14 -3 -19 -7 -21 Pooled 6: 655 052 224 412 704 228 610 676 187 959 538 728 265 045 166 020 428 139 229 933 531 431 469 557 439 377 436 153 182 184 151 056 012 220 050 159 099 136 001 320 169 340 266 245 433 491 397 394 438 536 474 575 578 530 368 154 467 526 546 152 185 161 221 352 385 310 051 016 222 041 011 175 021 018 178 372 477 520 430 464 601 489 448 540 503 329 370 327 319 369 125 134 146 122 022 055 197 025 032 215 044 192 168 707 013 638 024 005 832 002 940 037 107 033 103 251 211 235 761 160 374 354 389 408 599 620 583 563 309 411 371 421 138 144 141 118 004 817 155 028 026 202 030 072 172 213 027 206 010 679 882 836 692 341 061 283 031 873 096 143 264 367 409 360 392 607 562 614 580 217 113 111 140 116 047 049 274 046 919 851 058 065 119 131 285 668 073 133 157 102 277 080 282 424 420 337 545 550 7: Countries’ abbreviations BE NL BG AT CZ PL DK PT DE RO EE SI IE SK EL FI ES SE FR HR IT CY (non-EU) LV LT RS LU CH HU MT “Pooled data” “Average” sizes Getting touch hundreds Direct Information Centres You centre nearest you at: https://europa eu/contact phone e-mail answers your contact freephone: (certain operators charge calls) number: +32 22999696 via: http://europa Finding Online languages Europa website eu/european-union/index_en download publications https://publications eu/en/publications Multiple copies contacting local eu/european-union/contact_en) law legal 1952 language versions go EUR-Lex http://eur-lex eu Open Data Portal (http://data eu/euodp/en) datasets downloaded reused commercial non-commercial purposes ‘longer-term resources’ ‘household needs’ eu/eurostat/

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Quelles solidarités pour une Union sociale européenne?

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Europese solidariteit, De Unie heeft een sociale dimensie nodig

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167 11 Europese solidariteit De Unie heeft een sociale dimensie nodig Frank vanDenbroucke Universiteitshoogleraar aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam Sociale onzekerheid wordt vaak in verband gebracht met het wegval- len grenzen overtuiging bestaat dat internationale concur- rentie vrijheid kapitaalverkeer en arbeidsmigratie onze nationale stelsels zekerheid ondermijnen Als zo is wat kunnen we er dan doen? Moeten ons beleid op hoger niveau organiseren bijvoorbeeld Europees? In dit hoofdstuk ga ik deze vraag onderzoek mogelijkheden daarvan Het optimisme pioniers Kan je economische afbreken markten één maken zonder gemeenschappelijke standaarden voor minimumlonen bijdra- gen uitkeringen? integratie soci- ale harmonisatie? Die vormde al punt discussie jaren vijftig toen oprichting Economische Ge- meenschap (de voorloper Unie) werd voorbereid Er zelfs heel rapport gewijd: Ohlin-rapport uit 1956 Kort samengevat zei mogelijk was harmonisatie Bertil Ohlin ging ervan verschillen lonen tussen betrokken landen samenhingen productiviteit Hoge werden uitbetaald waar Daarom hoefde men niet te vrezen neerwaartse druk zou ontstaan bij vrijma- ken handel onderstreepte wel mogelijke uiteen- lopende ontwikkelingen inzake gecorrigeerd zouden worden door aanpassingen onderlinge wisselkoersen had dus over muntunie (want die laat geen toe); onbelang- rijk voorbehoud grondleggers project hebben gevolgd Ze waren overtuigd bijdragen ontwikkeling sterke welvaartsstaten overtui- alleen groei alle deel- nemende bevorderen maar ook economisch minder ontwikkelde andere gaan inhalen: convergentie-machine zorg kon gerust gemoed overgelaten voldoende vakbonden politieke partijen bestaan om vruchten netjes verdelen afspreken Landen so- ciaal vooropliepen geremd hun beleid: werkt opwaarts neerwaarts geschiedenis ongelijk gegeven tenminste tot halverwege 2000: inhaalbewegingen nati- onale gingen hand Sindsdien zien echter barsten model eerste barst geleidelijk zichtbaar meerdere hoogontwikkelde zoals Zweden Denemarken Duitsland neemt ongelijkheid toe sinds begin eeuw Zou laatste uitbreidingsgolf Euro- pese hebben? vandaag zijn alleszins grotere (kleinere) negentig véél (nog kleinere) Gemeenschap zestig tweede − spectaculaire scheur eigenlijk crisis 2008: conver- gentie-machine stokte noorden zuiden dreven elkaar Dit natuurlijk alles Kortom: lijkt meer terecht; 2008 binnen aantal lidstaten name eurozone Nederland behoort groep sterk toegenomen hier gegroeid Dat onder verregaande flexi- bilisering Nederlandse arbeidsmarkt flexibilisering sommige mensen weer economie competitief blijven zeer con- currentiële omgeving België sprake stijgende bleef beperkt Bel- gië kent problemen grote relatieve armoede kinderen samenhangt feit veel le- ven gezin waarvan ouders werk lage uitkeringen Ik onderstreep omdat ze aantonen machteloze speelbal golven internationalisering; maakt groot verschil (Vandenbroucke 2017; 2019a) Daarmee wil ontkennen sociaal kan zetten bestel meest Om ander juiste perspectief plaatsen start blik Minimumlonen Europa: inhaalbeweging Figuur 1 toont hoogte minimummaandlonen 2004 zwarte balkjes) 2019 grijze balk- jes) uitgedrukt euro’s Europa Op horizontale as staan algemeen geldend officieel vastgelegd minimumloon minstens (Duitsland Italië daar bij) verti- cale bedragen of koopkrachtpariteiten Zwarte balkjes: minimummaandloon (eerste semester) Grijze bolletjes: omgerekend (kkp) Getallen namen landen: reële stijging (in procenten) rekening houdende consumptieprijzen elk land Bron: Eurostat-website eigen berekeningen gerangschikt basis minimum- loon 2004: Bulgarije laagste Luxemburg hoogste enorm figuur lan- den Oost- Centraal-Europa; Portugal Spanje Ierland tijdens voorbije vijftien jaar stegen nog als corrigeert inflatie getallen geven ‘reële stijging’ zeggen koopkracht: hooguit 2 procent periode jaar; 5 procent; Griekenland daalde koopkracht 13 pro- cent steeg 204 verdrievoudiging bolletjes vergelijking concreet kopen verschillende Met evenveel Letland Litouwen gemiddelde prijspeil lager ligt Deze omrekening ‘koopkracht- pariteiten’ heet verandert plaatje slechts 27 houden leven duurder blijkt 41 concurrentievoordeel mini- mumlonen ten opzichte deel altijd pak goed- koper iets evolueert handomdraai veranderen Wat leren 1? kijken naar Cen- traal-Europa optimistische verhaal eer- ste gezicht bevestigd worden: convergen- tie-machine goede richting afspraken nieuwe profiteerden econo- mische eenmaking enorme stij- intussen gedwongen beneden passen goed nieuws Maar anders: terug lange loonmatiging Frankrijk onderkant loonwaaier belangrijke werknemers haast vooruit uitging muntunie: Duitse stond volledig teken Aangezien wijzigen min loonbeleid sterkste volgen zeker be- kijkt langere termijn dramatische uitwerking gaat impact uitbreiding mate algemene gevoerd misstanden detachering vereisen wetgeving Wil mijn evolutie Centraal-Europa beweren helemaal dumping – oneerlijke concurrentie lagere voorzieningen uitgebreide Europa? Neen geconcentreerd bepaalde sectoren illegale situaties gebrek controle inspectie groeiende gebruik mistoestanden geleid Detachering betekent werknemer (bijvoorbeeld) Polen contract blijft Poolse werkgever gevestigd Zijn verplicht geldende Neder- betalen loonkosten gedetacheerde laag houdt We afschaffen eengemaakte markt immers dienstverlening (Bijvoorbeeld: Stel Italiaans bedrijf Ne- derlands gebouw voorzien airconditioning installatie mankeert moet misschien Italiaanse technici derland sturen enkele dagen Je eisen Italianen ingeschakeld landse want hopeloos ingewikkeld ) deta- chering vlucht genomen niets Acties daarrond ge- lukkig Vanaf 2020 dezelfde minimale loonvoorwaarden genieten controlemogelijkheden aanzienlijk verbeterd Ook afgesproken arbeidsmarktautoriteit komt waarin arbeidsinspecties samenwerken akkoord trans- portsector bedrijven lagelonenlanden transportbedrijven hogelonenlanden onderuithalen besprekingen maatregelen tegen praktijken dum- ping sector vergevorderd Alhoewel grootschalige gunstige ontwikke- lingen toch Europe- se Vanzelfsprekend zal armer Europees tijd liggen rijker land; regel werkenden gedetacheerden recht Daarover duidelijkheid anders gemakkelijk secto- ren werken meegenieten welvaart manier gekoppeld (hoe dergelijke kop- peling geregeld via overleg wettelijk principe zijn) Sociaal ervoor zorgen haar beurt volgt zaak rechtvaardigheid; evenwichtige ling Migratie hoeft leiden Straks kom eerst kwestie aanstippen: invloed migratie meeste doen de- tachering arbeidscontract land: 2017 ruw geschat zowat 10 miljoen Europeanen 8 detacheringen (European Commission 2018) Voor hen gel- loon- arbeidsvoorwaarden rechten plichten daarbij horen rijkere belang hebben: willen stelsel zeker- heid komst Roemenië lagen 2000 betekende extra currentie Verenigd Koninkrijk geschoolde En gebeurt hangt af waarop georganiseerd Neem Koninkrijk: flexibel weinig besliste bovendien vanaf deur meteen open langrijke instroom veroorzaakt boost geeft segment betaald gewerkt mag verbazen Tegelijkertijd Ver- enigd groeiend tekort huisvesting gezondheidszorg Britten zich toene- mende begonnen toegang verwonderlijk factoren spelen bele Britse makelij: opgelegd heeft! leidt genuanceerd geantwoord hoge type aanbiedt migranten daardoor aantrekt Pijler Rechten gebaseerd vrij verkeer mooi behoud méér stichters (en Ohlin) ogen hadden Niet beter samen- werking inspecties ‘eerlijk mensen’ (fair mobility) belangrijk doorgeschoten vormen flexibiliteit banden gelegd geïnformeerd arbeidsvoor- waarden uitzondering gedekt minimumlonen… principes moeten gelden harmonisering systemen gelijken details respect geformuleerde grondprincipes keurden Commissie Parlement samen daarnet geformuleerd heb vind lijnen vormt uitgangspunt toekomst mooie totaal twintig plechtig onderschreven volgende geconcretiseerd tastbaar Sommige zullen veran- deren toegepast worden; vooral erg Een voorbeeld iederéén bescherming krijgen; zzp’ers geval: pensioen ziekte-uitkeringen werkloosheid consequent daarom verklaring kapitaal steeds duidelijker kapitaalver- keer funeste vorm belastingconcurrentie; proberen lokken verlagen winstbelasting Uiteindelijk schaadt iedereen correcte noodzakelijk onderdeel correct belas- tingstelsel welvaartsstaat financieren spelregels vennootschapsbelasting noodzaak internationaal vraagstuk verder reikt stand komen: eerlijk verlopen complexe uitdaging monetaire ver- taald concrete initiatieven ie- dereen vertaald aanbeveling ‘zachte’ weg blijkbaar enige voor- uitgang boeken toepassing komende stipt schokdempers ‘stabilisatoren’ jargon eco- nomen Verenigde Staten Sta- sociaal-economische financiële risico’s indivi- duele staten opgevangen fe- derale Amerikaanse niveau: geldt zowel crisissen banken werkloosheidskas nood hoog gestegen biedt federale steun enigde vanzelfsprekend; grotendeels voorhand gediscussieerd uitbreekt zorgt stabiliteit onbeheersbaar dreigden kwam gang; vereiste moeizame besprekin- waardoor uiteindelijk harde voorwaarden Vele experts eens solidaire verzekeringsmechanismen opzetten zodat lidsta- verzekerd wanneer getroffen ernstige idee ‘schokfonds’ doeling permanente herverdeling armere brengen verzekering: tijdelijk geholpen zo’n schokfonds ontworpen doet beroep aannemen; mogelijkheid werkloosheidsuitkeringen uniforme werkloosheidsverzekering komen; werkloosheidsstelsels bui- tengewoon complex Wel werkloosheids- verzekeringen deelnemende voldoen: genereuze werkloos- heidsuitkeringen; dekking effectieve activering werklozen inmiddels Anders gezegd: nodig; zekere convergentie betreft dergelijk gedis- cussieerd politiek verzet nogal politici misbruik krijgen kiezers opbren- nochtans voorkomen: daarnaar studies gedaan opinieon- derzoek bewijst draagvlak grensoverschrij- dende 2019b) baat ont- wikkeling lonen: gelijke tred arbeidsproductiviteit nu geval lang gematigd; gevolg onevenwicht handelsstromen verdeling rijkdom beide onwenselijk organisatie verschilt elke lidstaat gecoördineerd Naar Toen gang bracht geloofde volstond; veranderd: Enerzijds omwille unie ‘schokdempers’ waarmee klassieke opdracht uit- komen anderzijds uitbreiding; verkeer’ vereist sterker regelgevend kader pleit Unie: níét welvaartsstaat; wel- vaartsstaten gedijen instellingen supranationale domein selec- tief domeinen ondersteuning plechtige afkondiging stap Ursula von der Leyen uitdrukkelijk verwees agenda zij kandidate juli voorgelegd belooft daarin ‘actieplan’ voeren ‘wettelijk instrument’ verzekeren iedere ‘fair minimumloon’ verwijst zware schokken helpen ‘herverzekering’ na- tionale regeringen twee opdrachten: omzetten hele Unie; versterkt veilige haven uitmaken Literatuur European 2018 Annual Report on intra-European Labour Mobility Vandenbroucke Nederland: kleine Vierendertigste Pacificatielezing Breda Via: www frankvanden- broucke uva nl 2019a Addressing Global Inequality: Is the eu Part Equation? In: Diamond Patrick (ed The Crisis Globalization: Democracy Capitalism and Inequality Twenty-First Century London & New York: Tauris frankvandenbroucke 2019b s&d 76(1)

The European Pillar of Social Rights

Geplaatst op 11 november 2019 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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2019-11-08_Presentation_Vandenbroucke_Madrid

The European Pillar of Social Rights Consistence risks and delivery Frank Vandenbroucke University Amsterdam Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 8 November 2019 signals a new paradigm • functional necessities EMU: – EES: supply-side flexibility New insight: labour market institutions that support stability EMU as an insurance union: vaccination metaphor Why are stabilization instruments centralized in monetary unions? Risk sharing (pooling) Externalities national public good (vaccination) Vaccination: compulsory (minimum requirements) subsidized (re-insurance) Minimum requirements for effective stabilisation capacity: sufficiently generous unemployment benefits notably the short-term; sufficient coverage rates benefit schemes; no segmentation leaves part force poorly insured; proliferation employment relations not integrated into social insurance; activation unemployed individuals; budgetary buffers times so automatic stabilisers can do their work bad These principles become fortiori imperative if Eurozone would be equipped with re-insurance systems: institutional moral hazard common standards resilient welfare states (flexibility/stability) Cluster policy adequate capacity MS: insured against unemployment; systems individuals Labour deliver on wage coordination (effective collective bargaining) A shared conception  Convergence some key features Traditional view: aspiration: simultaneous pursuit economic progress cohesion both within countries (development states) between (upward convergence across EU) integration human capital through investment policies Upward inequality EU should stimulate Member States to develop packages pursue upward internal (‘dual use’ packages) quality is condition long-term Reducing background inequalities families children investing child care education contribute EU-wide “Rising income has significant impact growth large because it reduces poorer segments poorest 40% population precise invest skills ” (OECD In Together … 2015) single after enlargement: reconciling openness domestic requires more elaborate framework ‘balancing act’ possible: ‘fair mobility’: Openness mobility must exert downward pressure level minimum protection wages security entitlements assistance) Mobility create real opportunity Access benefits: general principle non-discrimination exception: posting workers which needed reform Transparency regimes Overlapping priorities fair bargaining ECEC better perspectives households weak attachment markets / incentives low-skilled labour…) transparency predictability How Rights? Credible roadmap combining… legislation Policy benchmarking Funding (tangible MS) → ‘action plan’ promised by Ursula von der Leyen Mainstreaming fiscal surveillance Semester Completing union (automatic stabilizers e g systems) Clear (cf EuVisions forum debate www euvisions eu) Need clear perspective: Union systemic functions (e corporate taxation …) guide substantive development via objectives leaving ways means basis operational definition ‘the model’ cooperate explicit purpose pursuing pan-European based reciprocity Are citizens ready share risk unemployment? survey experiment (13 19 500 citizens) Fixed points all packages: disbursement MS triggered increases MS; used subsidize systems; (minimum) floor generosity levels participating Moving parts: (3); conditions w r t training (2); between-country redistribution (3) => 324 Taxation or administration job search effort dimension Mean Support Package (O=strongly so1newhat ijl ool neutral; 1= son1ewhat strongly faveur) C’D 0 2 4 6 -() •• C/ l 1 i ; “‘d gr ‘¾ ‘1<1> _/ ) OQ (‘D j “‘-“‘ y’6 & $> {J Figure 14: Predicted Vote Sample Packages Pooled countries) T 00 bJ) Q ·_p bJ)O i: Intemally consistent u c—- MOST POPULAR: LEAST LOW FLOOR: HIGH FLOOR BUT WITH 70% last NO REDIST : DOMEST IN&BTWN Must train /educate No t:rain/educate las Redist rich-to-poor redist train/educate costs 5% taxes Some btwn cnt:Iy Nationa achn Eurnpean ach1ün Natio nal achnin 1% rich accept offer effmt National achni n o1f3fer Conclusions risk- (EURS) Fundamental opposition EURS confined relatively small segment Citizens sensitive design Generous carry majorities each our sample even package require additional from poor eventual tax burden (if there burden) necessary rally most larger implementation decentralized associated exercises community lot question how tolerant scheme regard structural seems less important when they express preferences than policymakers This say such debates important; but other issues seem weight citizens’ judgment 14 Resources 1) ‘Special Issue’ http://www eu/ 2) Barnard De Baere (eds Crisis Cambridge: Cambridge Press September 2017 https://doi org/10 1017/9781108235174 (Introductory chapter Open frankvandenbroucke uva nl item 263) 3) Burgoon Kuhn Nicoli Sacchi van Duin Hegewald Sharing When Unemployment Hits: Design Influences Citizen For 2018 AISSR Report (December) http://aissr nl/news 4) insurance: what really think Notre Europe Jacques Delors Institute Brief ‘Europe all’ 13 February 2013 http://institutdelors eu/publications/european-unemployment-insurance-what-citizens- really-think/?lang=en 5) Rinaldi challenge covergence

Solidarity between Generations in Extended Families: Old-Age Income as a Way Out of Child Poverty?

Geplaatst op 20 oktober 2019 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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European Sociological Review 2020 Vol 36 No 2 317–332 doi: 10 1093/esr/jcz052 Advance Access Publication Date: 12 October 2019 Original Article Solidarity between Generations in Extended Families: Old-Age Income as a Way Out of Child Poverty? Gerlinde Verbist1 * Ron Diris2 and Frank Vandenbroucke3 1Department Sociology Centre for Social Policy Herman Deleeck University Antwerp 2000 Belgium 2Department Economics Maastricht 6211 LK the Netherlands 3University Amsterdam 1000 GG *Corresponding author Email: gerlinde verbist@uantwerpen be Submitted July 2018; revised 2019; accepted September Abstract We analyse intergenerational solidarity within multigenerational households (MGHs) assess how formation these is related to poverty across countries Our aim this type household coping strategy with respect financial distress families children Using data from EU Statistics on Living Conditions (EU-SILC) we examine three specific empirical questions regards complex form notably (i) identify what extent co-residence MGHs financially beneficial young and/or old generation; (ii) income brought into by generation impacts child (iii) test sensitive impact hypotheses about way resources are shared define those where generations cohabit The results indicate that MGH operates mainly older younger Although not designed purpose pensions alleviate most prevalent Introduction In article look at sharing affects pov- erty may part house- holds Pensions key component but their role an anti-poverty device has hardly been studied Europe let alone international comparative per- spective Exploiting unique features database soli- darity 32 countries: measure contributed hypothe- ses Southern especially Eastern relatively common they far less Western Northern Different factors can explain such VC Author(s) Published Oxford Press All rights reserved For permissions please e-mail: journals permissions@oup com ranging individual preferences ex- ternal socio-economic or cultural context post- Communist combination difficult transition market economies hardship entailed many together still rela- tively low level development welfare states some provide plausible explanation high prevalence (Romania exemplary case social economic MGHs; see Preoteasa Vlase Tufva 2018) found both legacy Saraceno Keck (2010) have called ‘familialism default’ (i e neither publicly provided alternatives nor support family care) more recently fi- nancial crisis which halted long-term socio- logical downward trend [a documented Glaser et al (2018) England Wales France Greece Portugal Austria] con- trast Scandinavian highly developed long-standing ‘de-familialization’ (Saraceno 2010) obvious play previous work researchers generally focused labour supply time spent informal formal care (e g Pezzin Steinberg Schone 1999; Bertrand Mullainathan Miller 2003; Dimova Wolff 2011) However one import- ant implication left out: elderly typically bring poten- tially other substantial size As espe- cially Albertini Kohli (2012) transfers parents adult clusters (Nordic Continental Southern) do sider first analysis gains pro-child (when proportionally income) pro- (which occur through econo- mies scale) EU-SILC 2013 each scenarios (pro-child pro-elderly mutually beneficial) second relates risks logistic regression third ana- lysis contribution reduction under different cost-sharing resource-sharing A stand- ard practice study distribution as- sume fully literature however becoming increas- ingly critical assumption Such criticism hold fortiori therefore needs tested To our knowledge old-age bearing analysed studies perspective general rare dataset information intra-household allows us fill gap organized follows Background section position Data Methodology discuss meth- odology underpinning mentioned earlier Financial Multigenerational Households present final presents conclusions contributes drivers measurement putting classical Evidence genera- tions mostly refers United States seen significant increases since 1970s Studies attributed increase rises divorce rates single-parent female force participation incarceration over same period (see Baker Silverstein Putney 2008; Turney 2014) addition find among unemployment higher suggesting main motivations Cultural religion migrant status ethnicity cited another explanatory factor (Luo 2012; Pilkauskas 2012) Mutchler investigate insecurity material living grandparent-headed increased risk health three-generation no difference food housing comparison two-parent Research setting scarce inter- national An exception who share people decreasing Austria around 1981 early 2000s whereas it rising Romania [the discussed depth (2018)] They firm characterized disadvantage With well-being research South Africa indi- cates budget positive only health- clothes consumption shares (Hamoudi Thomas 2005) also cogni- tive physical (Duflo 2000) school enrolment (Case Menendez 2007) It appears shift bargaining power male head grandparent (generally grand- mother) benefits even when controlled changes any evidence indicates least extra pen- sion used benefit cannot extrapolate findings low- middle-income (such Africa) high-income coun- tries there vast tax-transfer system Ba´rcena-Martı´n Blanco-Arana Pe´rez-Moreno Salanauskaite Verbist 2013; references therein) though little known chil- dren specifically Diris Vandenbroucke (2017) estimate direct spending uncover ambiguous pension size: worsens relative thereby alleviates This performed aggregate i aims country order justice cross-country differences micro-level needed currently lacking inevitably triggers standard assumptions applies equivalence scale derive needs-adjusted metric coined ‘equivalized income’) Assigning equivalized means assumes equal shar- ing If violated misleading might drawn (Atkinson 1975; Decancq growing body equal-sharing lacks theoretical foundation sup- port Behrman Orsini Spadaro 2005; Burton Phipps Woolley Several rejected ‘classical’ model dif- ferent individuals levels often strong gender di- mension 1990; Schultz Fortin Lacroix 1997; Bennett 2013) Typically anal- yses exclusively working-age adults without likely apply number within-household re- source-sharing very limited stud- ies conducted [see Cantillon Nolan (2001) Ireland; (2007) Canada] consider will set out sections backdrop de- scriptive Therefore consists four subsections: Definitions briefly EU- SILC Measuring Direction concepts applied direction solidarity; Multivariate Analysis multivari- ate poverty; Simulation Resource-Sharing Assumption contains representative samples private (the member plus Croatia Iceland Norway Serb Republic Switzerland) defined here working age person survey than 18 64 aged 1 reveal several characteristics Supplementary Appendix Table SA1; variables controls section) First all much grandmothers grandfathers frequent large majority report suffer poor suggests need concerns major behind for- mation Another characteristic likeli- hood having substitute parent figure non-EU background Nordic Anglo-Saxon lower human capital intensity Remarkably absent reflect propen- sity operate opposite directions eld- erly could require take away activity serve facili- tators acting care- givers grandchild These SILC-based observations largely confirm (2018): ‘grandparent households’ associated (whether measured marital education level) study; grandfathers; formed head- count rate takes relevant group in- (1) Nordic: Denmark Finland Sweden; (2) Continental: Germany Luxembourg Switzerland; (3) Anglo-Saxon: Ireland Kingdom; (4) Southern: Cyprus Italy Malta Spain; (5) Eastern: Bulgaria Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Slovenia geographical- historical certain mature rich cluster) pretend delineated clear-cut dynamics From involved elder- ly (throughout use ‘beneficial’ mean ‘fi- nancially beneficial’) ‘pro-child’ ‘pro-elder- ly’ respectively describe whose solely ‘mutual’ sim- ple framework classify distinct categories if come counterfactual formally P þ NP below line Following prac- tice Union 60 per cent median income; with: > ESMG ESCFC incomes modified OECD composition account attributes weight 0 5 individu- als 14 3 facilitate presentation clus- ter sample five groups basis geography history former communist now (candi- date) members constitute cluster] ¼ sum non-equivalized mem- ber(s) (mostly hence ‘P’ note included P) 65; parameter equivalize exclude (persons 65þ); Expression written as: incorporated scales or: – (in MGH) improves threshold (compared whereby would excluded household) Hence counter- factual expressions formalize simple insight: forma- tion ratio divided non-elderly larger generated terfactual latter words add gain similar reasoning perspec- elderly: finan- if: makes possible surpass so lives either ‘pro- child’ presume importance question cial Children Elderly People Europe: Prevalence Poverty Outcomes show predominantly poverty- alleviating effect co-residing potentially largest subsequent em- ESCFE pirical focuses its relation cated contribu- total ESCFE¼ Equation tells equiva- lence Equations simultaneously following condition satisfied: nevertheless make up SA2) being regres- sions dependent variable (Poori) whether (0) independent interest (MGHi; yes/no) old-aged (yes/no) distinction man (YOAM) woman (YOAF) (YOAFM) thus two regressions country: < Model 1: Poori b MGHi cXi Ei short label does hold; elderly’ holds; ‘pro-elderly’ 2: contradiction b1YOAFi b2YOAMi b3 YOAFMi include control (X): (yes) more; son suffers bad (yes PH010 4 [bad] [very bad]) separate woman; born); (iv) attained educa- degree; (v) household; (vi) models allow compared two-generation (observable) circumstances correct fact tend ad- verse Note behavioural causes example because grandparents act caregivers corrected tensity reflected estimated perform simulation sess were investigating compo- nents help reduce pre-post analysis: before after inclusion com- ponent Levy Lietz Sutherland 2007; 2013)? static reactions limitation method well-known (Bergh Jesuit Mahler 2010 Marx 2016) Nevertheless provides indication important lifting above expand upon assump- standardly dis- tributive analyses full-sharing probably unrealistic selection simulations sensitivity out- comes Two extreme full hand Neither realis- tic exercises upper bounds valuable (Burton kind (examples Jenkins 1991; 1995) few investigated using explicitly ask gree income-sharing Marshall 1994) self-reported approximate true degree construct additional scenario best know- ledge indeed occurs (See SA3) partial SA4) moderate centres 70 scen- ario determined weighted average reported Notes MGHs: costs due proportion- calculate change baseline cur- rent situation un- changed scenarios: ‘No unchanged’: removed changed; corresponds persons cost taken altered While realistic absence scale’: correspondingly MGH; effectively form(s) split div- ided sub-households roof not- ably consisting person(s) adapted gets value 75 (ra- ther 1) live there- fore divide ‘Part changed’: partially old- (based SILC-reported degrees) his/ her crease construction move (as baseline) depending changing dominates results: descriptive elderly; gauges Membership Explanatory Factor estimates membership Impact Poverty: Pre-Post assesses resource Figure shows grouped regions There considerable cross- variation close somewhat smaller excep- well particu- larly typical MG On amounts 19 7 slightly (20 cent) wide (Figure 2a) statis- tically (exceptions Spain Poland) statistically non-MGHs continental instance almost twice (32 (17 should noted small surprising exist particular subgroup seem es- pecially dire offers 73 versus contrast at- risk-of-poverty percentage points (18 point difference) (16% centage (15% percent- outcomes mixed; Share Notes: Within ranked Countries resp white Source: Own calculations marked 2b) reverse Especially counterparts When comparing face fers uses formulae presented Most appear MGH: half figures substantially 90 80 Slovakia 40 (dir- ect) 15–20 while consistently pattern surpris- accrue compositional effects conclude goes cross-sectional ob- servation matches trends grandchildren highlighting according 2013: (a) (b) asterisk (*) name ‘in MGH’ ‘not (at 95% confidence interval) SA5 numbers increasingly supportive rather supported Given result focus remainder enrich 2a applying control- ling represented mutual (per Number cases Pro-elderly Mutual Pro-child SE 29 20 51 31 17 22 DK 34 8 9 56 69 53 37 NO 13 6 23 63 26 55 27 FI 25 68 66 67 IS 16 39 43 35 38 24 21 DE 83 15 76 NL 81 CH 28 48 FR 11 62 57 44 BE 47 61 41 LU 77 AT 95 58 IE UK 30 87 72 CY 52 46 MT 54 92 82 IT 341 293 ES 378 322 GR 59 188 167 PT 232 209 CZ 139 108 SI 454 EE 261 182 HU 65 288 234 SK 227 178 LT 222 196 LV 380 314 HR 89 325 237 RO 281 233 BG 290 260 PL 85 79 1041 785 RS 955 754 74 Country averages unweighted marginal (ME) inde- pendent (Model originated 2; SA6) yields negative ME arrangements given characteristics) meaning linked likelihood Logistic Member Only (OAF) (OAM) Both (OMF) 127 016 (omitted) -0 125 017 044 019 023 041 043 027 061 04 123 004 078 067 057 183 116 010 050 026 059 100 160 036 073 117 020 042 066 130 051 035 185 005 033 053 134 060 152 231 054 401 088 098 068 192 112 025 137 039 107 070 045 055 062 065 031 034 142 029 195 030 136 069 022 090 121 c 153 032 040 012 037 047 089 180 015 000 Numbers bold interval put italics Statistically coefficients OAF OAM; OMF; OAM OMF statistical significance MEs implies observed explained logistics looks separately mothers jointly signifi- cant signs coming men women presence reduces overcomes Exceptions (Austria) (Norway) exhibits (conditional) correlation cover expenses poverty: trolling back- ground do; ference becomes although itself lead greater stronger receive contribute Interestingly (Malta Greece) woman-only man-only Having ‘second’ brings comparatively indicating enough compensate his comparative- compensation suggest underlying reasons already patterns lack adequate protection fac- tors driven Other choices insights determinants considerations cash carry insight next performing Pre-post Resource- Sharing compare them column ap- proach Column security tent (with incomes) 50 (without ‘no sharing’ illustrates pass non-pension Removing story ignores scale: rest suppose cover- of) own costs; including overestimates By removing [column (2)] leads drop removes [compare columns One alter- native benchmark pertains remain current recipients (income) Sharing: Full Part Equivalence Unchanged Split 71 33 86 45 49 42 Total particularly Serbia conduct continue (thus benefiting overall remains reductions (especial- countries) (0)] pointing im- portance instru- ment avoid Finally gives (a plausible) Though consequences whole reflects SA3 size- able element preventing streams partly confirmed longitudinal year strongly traditional indicators underestimate reality overestimate Conclusion la- bour (in)formal dimensions country-specific providing range MGHs—which incomes—affects established domin- antly significantly clearly rele- vance cope giving operationalization concept doing critically resource- novel constructed crucial hypothesis picture too rosy: observe sub- calls caution interpretation Unsurprisingly (notably gener- osity degrees establish conclusion policy stimulate short-term ‘coping strategy’ directly inadequate safety nets non-financial personal room extended Moreover modernizing societies presumably past future policymakers implementing reform; ‘full resources’ tangible is—for good reasons—rationalized pension- heavy must parallel develop- systems terms services optimistic dimin- ish urgency conclusion: severe definition misclassification just limit Eyeballing EUROSTAT months worked during reference theoretically has/have category ad hoc module ‘Intra-household respondents answer Tables available ESR online Acknowledgements grateful constructive input an- onymous referees Funding was Belgian Science BELSPO (Contract BR/165/A4/CIRCLE_JPIMYBL) Joint Programming Initiative ‘More Years Better Lives’ (Part Horizon Grant Agreement 643850) References M generational conflict family: transfer regimes 1–13 Atkinson B (1975) Inequality Oxford: Clarendon L J hard- ship Journal Marriage Family 947–962 N (2008) Grandparents raising States: forms stagnant policies Societal & 53–69 E S tries: pro-poor targeting targeting? 739–758 R (2003) Intrahousehold Rosenzweig Stark O (Eds ) Handbook Population 1A North Holland Amsterdam: Elsevier pp 125–187 F (2013) Researching distribution: overview developments debates methodological chal- lenges 582–597 Bergh (2005) problem state research: redistribution? 345–357 D Public families: World Bank Economic 27–50 reconsidered Micklewright Reexamined 103–125 households: measuring non-monetary Feminist 5–23 Case Does money empower elderly? agincourt demographic surveil- lance area Health 157–164 K (2014) evolution Union: Reconciling Work Reduction How Successful Are Welfare States? 60–93 -C (2011) Do enhance maternal labor supply? 911–933 G taxes pro-poorness orientation Socio-Economic 745–775 Duflo (2000) American 393–398 (1997) unitary col- lective 933–955 Trends grandchild(ren) selected Ageing 237–250 Hamoudi Pension grandchildren: new California Center 043-05 (1991) agenda action 457–483 V Comparing government redistribution second-order Quarterly 91 1390–1404 H C Swapping poli- cies: alternative tax-benefit strategies 625–647 Luo Y grandchil- dren: population-based continuity Issues 1143–1167 I (2016) optimal redistribu- Forces 1–24 Resources Household: Multi-Country Microsimulation Determinants ‘Strategic Weight’ Differentials Their Distributional EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM3/05 (1999) Intergenerational giving: approach Human 475–503 (1995) impli- cations Canada Canadian 177–204 Three-generation ferences structure birth 931–943 reaction crisis: alteration precarious Romanian Societies 111–130 Is neighbour’s grass greener? New 315–331 W Can Europe? 675–696 T (1990) Testing neoclassical fertility 599–634 Women Fiscal 1–22 Intra-household allocation: ferential 635–664 mass incarceration: implications children’s contact 93 299–327 (1994) inequality Wealth 414–432 senior researcher Her interests evaluations microsimulation modelling performance vulnerable migrants) modern post-doctoral School Business His lie economics cog- nitive non-cognitive skills educational tracking Professor He teaches he chair ‘Herman Deleeck’

The US Unemployment Insurance Scheme: A Model for the EU?

Geplaatst op 7 oktober 2019 door Frank Vandenbroucke

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Publicaties Frank Vandenbroucke Publications Frank Vandenbroucke

Vice-eersteminister en minister van Sociale Zaken en Volksgezondheid

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